After seven weeks, I think we know stuff. There will still be surprises, but those surprises will be based on the stuff we know. For example, we can delineate the good QBs from the bad. For one, teams are starting to bench bad QBs. Matt Ryan was benched on Monday, and Baker Mayfield is probably getting benched when he’s healthy. For two, the number of Rodgers and Brady washed/quiet-quitting memes is growing rapidly.
Here are the elite QBs, which I’ve based on who is scoring two TDs per game.
Mahomes – 20 TDs
Allen – 19
Burrow – 18
Lamar – 15
Hurts – 12 (six games)
Herbert is also elite, just not in the context of this season. He has 12 TDs through seven games, which is very good, and we can make excuses for why he doesn’t have more. He hurt his ribs, Keenan Allen missed five games, they lack receiver depth behind Allen and Williams because Jalen Guyton is out for the year. But now Williams is going to miss a few weeks, and they never replaced Guyton’s deep speed. Herbert himself is incredible. This year isn’t going well, and it’s not getting much better unless the Chargers trade for a WR.
No excuses for anyone else. Here are some great QBs, based on a 3:1 TD:INT ratio and a ANY/A above 6.0.
Geno – 12:3, 7.2
Trevor – 12:4, 6.4
Herbs – 12:4, 6.3
Rodgers – 11:3, 6.0
Tua – 9:3, 8.3
Brady – 8:1, 6.5
And here’s a barrel of good QBs with a 2:1 TD:INT and rushing upside: Mariota, Kyler, Tannehill, Dimes, Heinicke.
And here are your basic-ass QBs with 2:1 TD:INT but basically zero rushing upside: Cousins, Garoppolo, Carr.
For what it’s worth, PJ Walker had 2 TDs and no turnovers against the Bucs in his first start. The Panthers really have no reason to bench Walker while he’s winning.
Bailey Zappe is a legend, but he’s played three pretty awful defenses. The expectation is that the Pats will start Mac Jones as soon as his ankle is ready.
Dak Prescott had one TD and no turnovers in a rout of the Lions. It’s easy to imagine him making the 3:1 TD:INT list going forward, as he’s had a 3:1 ratio in his last three full seasons and four of his five full seasons as a pro. He has averaged at least two TDs per game in his last two full seasons. Kennedy has him on the trade block, and the precedent for a Dak trade is the Trevor trade Kennedy made a few weeks ago. If you want Dak, you need to bring a quality QB and a WR. However, Dak isn’t necessarily worth it. The Cowboys figured out a two-headed rushing attack while Dak was gone. They might have had it in the works when they traded Amari Cooper to Humble Pie for $50 and a case of Heineken. If the Cowboys are a run-first team with a good defense, Dak is a good QB that doesn’t score serious fantasy points. The worst QBs starting in Mortydome are Rodgers, Cousins, Garoppolo, Brady, and Kyler.
Rodgers hasn’t been great, but he’s scored 20 FP in five of the last six weeks.
Cousins has been up and down, but statistically he and Dak are the same player.
Garoppolo is averaging 21 FP per game over the last four weeks, with a low of 18. The 49ers have acquired CMC and are suddenly more stacked than the 2016 Falcons. If Matt Ryan can win MVP, so can Jimmy G.
Brady is cursed, and the brilliance of the curse is that it’s not affecting Brady himself but rather everything in his sphere of his influence. Ryan Jensen, Cryptocurrency, Mike Evans’ hands… pretty soon nightshades will be announced as the cure for cancer.
Kyler is QB7 with a floor of 14 FP and a ceiling of 32 so far, and the confluence of Hopkins’ return with the release of the new COD is going to supercharge him into an MVP candidate.
Dak Prescott is a good QB, but we’re swimming in good QBs. You can get Daniel Jones or Geno Smith for cheaper. You can get Tua off waivers right now. I just got future Super Bowl MVP Jameis Winston for free this morning. There are fringe QBs like Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger about to make waves, and Matt Stafford is just hanging out in free agency despite the auspicious confluence Rams coming off a bye and getting Van Jefferson back. That’s two confluences in one paragraph, people, the commish is on fire.
Daniel Jones is having his Josh Allen moment. Sunday’s game could be the turning point in his career. He could look good the rest of this year, then the Giants trade a first-round pick for a legitimate star WR, then the Giants take off into the stratosphere offensively. This isn’t tongue-in-cheek hyperbole. I fully believe Daniel Jones can become not Josh Allen but the kind of QB that teams gameplan for and get it wrong each time because of all the things he can do. Evan should hang onto him as a late keeper option in case anything happens to George Pickens between now and next season.
Lamar Jackson had half as many pass attempts Sunday as he’d had in every week prior. It’s his first game with fewer than 20 pass attempts since 2020. The Ravens ran the ball 11 more times than their previous high this season. It was an intentional shift in style inspired by the return of Gus Edwards, playing in his first game since 2020. Gus has 25 pounds on the Ravens’ other RBs. He is definitively a game changer for this offense.
There were a lot of injuries this past week, some major, some minor. Amon-Ra St. Brown got hit in the head and showed enough concussion symptoms that he was not allowed to re-enter. He allegedly did not suffer a concussion, though. I am in favor of the rule that keeps him from going back in. DK Metcalf felt “something weird” happen to his knee and had to miss the rest of the game to undergo testing. This is the kind of player empowerment I’m into, where they don’t actually sacrifice their health for our entertainment. Shit happens, but DK doesn’t need to play on an unstable knee just because it’s not a serious injury yet.
Isiah Pacheco started for the Chiefs. It was announced before the game that he would start. He played 30% of snaps and returned kicks. CEH played 27%. Jerick McKinnon played 44%. Setting aside kick returns, Pacheco scored 5.3 FP, CEH scored 9.2, and McKinnon scored 5.8. BUT Pacheco scored 6.3 on kick returns. Still, it is a reminder that “starting” at RB just means taking the first snap.
Ja’Marr Chase had another 30 points, and Cameron lost the other half of the fifty cents he got from Sean for Chase earlier this season.
Max’s IDPs combined for 70 FP, which might be a record. I haven’t kept records for stuff like that, but 70 feels like the record, and so I’m going forward with 70 as the record. 31 from De’Vondre might be the record for points from a starting IDP. Chandler Jones’ 36 in Week 1 last year was more, but he was a free agent. Just like Tua’s 60 this year isn’t officially in our records. Anyway, 70 is a ton. Sucks it wasn’t enough for a win.
Sean and Brian combined for 199 points, which isn’t even a low for a matchup this season. Sean’s 102 is a record-low for a win this year, but Brian and Shelby’s combined 191 in Week 3 takes the cake for lowest scoring matchup. Anyway, Sean’s a fraud.
Coleman and Kennedy had the best matchup of the week, the only matchup that had a chance of going the other way after the early slate of games. In fact, there was a moment, with just one quarter left in the last afternoon games, where Kennedy was an Austin Ekeler TD away from taking the lead, but then Ken Walker broke off a 74-yard TD and iced the game for Seattle and for Coleman. It was awesome. So awesome that I should have traded Dameon Pierce for Walker and Tucker. Not that it’s something I think about without prompting, a few times a week, every week, for the rest of the year. Anyway, Coleman has taken the recent lead in the rivalry.
Speaking of rivalries, we are sticking with our plan of Rivalry Week in Week 13. I’ll be putting out a vote of whether we want to go with Kennedy’s rivalry suggestions or we want to choose our own. When it comes to choosing our own, I’d have everyone send me a list of twelve names in the order they want their rivals and then math it out. So that’s on the table coming soon.
Sauce Gardner might be the best draft pick of all time, for the Jets and for Coleman.
Actually, wait, Corey and Cameron also had a competitive matchup, where Corey got out to a huge lead after the early games and then Cameron stormed back in the late afternoon. Burrow dropped 50. The game should have been over. But Josh Jacobs scored 40, and it’s the third consecutive game where Jacobs has cleared 34. Meanwhile, Etienne took over the Jags’ backfield for good. Eno Benjamin appears to be taking over the Cardinals’. Cameron is suddenly stacked at RB and dangerously close to the bottom dropping out at WR. Depending on the severity of Deebo’s injury, Cameron could be down Davante Adams and Van Jefferson starting this week. And Cameron got his Cooper Kupp revenge, for now.
The Wilson Massacre over Krombopulos Michael
Justin Herbert is on bye, Coleman’s other guys have bad matchups, and Brian’s team just isn’t as bad as his total points suggest. There is a reckoning coming. It would be better led by Jameis Winston, but Kirk Cousins is righteous enough to be a part of it. I’m in it for Swift, for Pittman getting hyper-targeted by a redshirt rookie, and… I can’t actually make a case beyond that. Coleman might win this just because he gets 50 from his IDPs and Brian’s only players in double digits are the players I already mentioned. Either way I am picking Brian, and I’m not backing down.
Tiny Rick over back2back
The train is not stopping for any reason I can fathom. Evan has the better players and the better matchups. Corey doesn’t have a real RB. He could do worse than Antonio Gibson, who is mercifully returning kicks in addition to getting just one third of the RB work in Washington. Evan has three RBs better than Gibson right now, four if you think Zeke can keep this up. Evan’s got two RBs playing WR in Brown and Godwin. Evan’s so stacked at RB he can’t even squeeze George Pickens into the flex. Corey has serious WR firepower, enough that he needs to be making offers to Kennedy and Cameron while they’re hurting for WR help. Go get those Panthers’ RBs before that rocket ship takes off. But WRs aren’t going to be enough. Evan has everything: trains, horses, centaurs, a midget riding a skateboard in a Cosby sweater… this team is so hot that they’re cutting the next Josh Allen while other teams are starting the next Matt Ryan (or, worse, the current Matt Ryan).
Doing it Wrong over Doing it Roy
Yes, Shelby is in the midst of a winning streak because Kyler is in the midst of a winning streak. Mahomes is on bye, and Dak’s matchup against the Bears isn’t as good as you’d imagine. The Bears are getting good, and they’re going to upset the Cowboys at home. Meanwhile, Shelby’s heating up, and she’s getting Diggs back and Michael Carter the starter (for at least this week while Robinson gets up to speed). Kennedy’s also down Ekeler and Everett, possibly Lazard, too. He might actually have to start all of these Panthers he’s adding.
In-N-Out over Culinary Institute
Ja’Marr Chase revenge game narrative. But also Sean has better players in better positions to succeed. For all of Cameron’s recent success, I think he’s getting cold water matchups this week. He has the edge at IDP and K, and maybe RB. I think the Saints’ defense with 10 days prep and Lattimore back will hold the Raiders under 20, and the Cards defense will contain Dalvin Cook, but I think Eno and Etienne are outscoring Singletary and Jamaal Williams. But all in all, when the dust settles and we’re talking about this next week, Ja’Marr Chase revenge game.
Pirates of the Pancreas over C’mon Football
Evenly matched teams, one coming off a win, the other off a loss. If I’m Max, I’m starting Brady. The Saints’ defense is better than the Ravens’, for one, but for two, Brady scored 13 FP in a brutal loss while Derek Carr scored 15 in a blowout win. For the same reason I expect Max to beat Spencer, I expect Brady to beat Carr. Of course, I don’t know shit and I’m just vibing here. More certain than Carr getting owned by the Saints is Trevor getting owned by the Broncos. The Broncos have allowed one passing TD all year. Now that I’ve said it, it’s a lock that Trevor will throw one, but I still think it’ll be just one. This is going to be a very ugly game overall. The impact players will be Max’s players with T as their first or second initial. Spencer’s getting good scores from Higgins and Evans, but it’s tough to imagine much else going well.
Gus over Gutters
Lamar doesn’t do well against the blitz. The Bucs know this, and the Bucs like to blitz. But the Bucs’ defense is so desperately thin that it doesn’t matter what scheme they employ. They are going to allow points. They allowed 21 to a trash Panthers offense, and they will allow more to a good Ravens’ offense. If it’s not coming from Lamar, it’s coming from Gus, and if it’s not coming from either of them, then it’s seven field goals from Justin Tucker. Barkley’s going to have a huge game against a porous Seattle run defense—and Daniel Jones’ legend will grow heading into a bye, but I digress. I would really like Oliver to unleash the Bears on me. Dallas has too good a defense for it to be a great move, but I’d prefer Fields @DAL over Rodgers @BUF with the Bills coming off a bye. Oliver’s tight at WR and flex, so fuck it. Throw Khalil Herbert and Darnell Mooney in there, hope for some splash plays that add up to 20 total between them, which is as much as you’re getting from Allen Robinson and Josh Reynolds anyway—honestly Reynolds could be good this week; Miami’s secondary is taking blow after blow, injury-wise. Fine. Don’t go full Bear. But gimme Fields. You must know by now I would have picked up Fields over Winston if you hadn’t claimed him already. Well, now’s the time to use the signs of the universe to your advantage. But oh shit, you have drops to make. You can’t afford to hold two QBs while you have open holes at TE and DX—unless you’re going to quiet quit a second week while you contemplate tanking—so I’m offering you a trade for Fields so that I can keep up my streak of roastable trades until someone else gets in the goddamn game!
And finally this Thursday’s Bucs-Ravens game, the first meeting between Lamar Jackson and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is a winner-take-all for my football heart. Say these teams play again in the Super Bowl this year somehow, this game will decide which jersey I wear during that Super Bowl. Will it be Lamar or Devin White? And if it’s a tie, I will simply tear myself in half and bleed out on both of them. Can’t wait.
