“Mirrors and copulation are abominable, since they both multiply the numbers of man.”
I usually listen to a football podcast every day. Some days, I’ll listen to two or three. Some of them are 10 minutes long, some are 20-30, some are over an hour. I have forgotten how I started this pattern of behavior, and last week I started questioning it. I was auto-piloting, and I had enough change to routine this week (sick days, weird days at work, building baby furniture at home) to start questioning the net worth of the routine. So I haven’t listened to a football podcast this week, and I don’t want to do a football addicts’ testimony here, so suffice it to say that I have escaped from a football K-hole and have very little intention of going back. I’m into watching games and reading stats. I’m into occasionally reading a feature if it really calls to me. I’m into writing a note that doesn’t so much reflect on The State of Football as it does talk a little shit and make everyone feel a little better about spending their time on something silly.
For years I wanted to make a perfect scoring system. More specifically, I wanted IDP scoring to “make sense.” Someone asked me why I kept changing the scoring, and my answer had something to do with wanting a players’ real impact match his fantasy impact. Again, they asked me why. I had no answer. There is no answer. It was a mindless function of perfectionism. Fantasy football has no responsibility to mirror reality.
It really doesn’t matter whether a game makes sense. It matters whether a game is stimulating. We want to feel more alive for having participated. We don’t want our keepers taken away, but we’re better off for it. We’ll be better off getting them back, too. We’ll be better off if we trade Ja’Marr Chase for two less talented players. We don’t have to understand why. We just have to start those less talented players and enjoy breaking this year’s high score, set just last week, throwing it right in the face of the person who not only set the high score but lampooned the trade. It’s fun. We’re having fun. Football is fun. Fun, sir.
Being an actual member of an organized football situation looks like not very much fun at all. It looks like very serious business, so serious that most people involved in a football game don’t actually get to touch the ball because if they did then the game wouldn’t go right. It’s very elementary school, very “no if you brush that doll’s hair that way, you’ll RUIN HER.”
I just like watching football. I like watching something I understand and the delight that comes from being surprised by something I see. That Patrick Mahomes scramble-dance floater thing to CEH Sunday night was one of those plays where seeing it forces my body to react. I am compelled to make movements and noises. If you can watch that play in real time and feel nothing, that’s fine. Maybe you just dig other stuff more than football. Can’t blame you. Football is barbaric, so barbaric that it’s often more satisfying to watch it destroy itself than it is to watch it succeed.
Culinary Institute 201 – Derrick Henry 100 Years 179
The rare matchup of the top two teams in scoring on the week reminds me to pitch an idea I, ironically enough, heard about on a podcast. I can’t remember what they called it, but it’s basically like a bad-beat emergency fund. Everyone puts $1 into a pot, and when the second-highest scorer in one week loses, they get the pot. Then everyone puts $1 in again. I feel like I’m explaining it right. Part of me thinks that this one league put $1 in each week and it carried over, like Free Parking, but also not like Free Parking in that every just pays in? Let’s workshop it though, if it’s something that sounds interesting to you. Obviously, I’d love $11 right now. It would soften the blow of this humiliating defeat, which I won’t talk about only yes I will.
I didn’t lose to Cameron. I lost to karma. I talked shit. I knew what I was doing. I knew it was going to come back around on me. I just didn’t think I’d score so many fucking points. It was truly excruciating. I was actually favored to win this game going into the second half of the late afternoon games. Russ, Jacobs, and Adams had scored 25 points in the first half. In the second half, they scored 60. I was spared the true mortification of losing by less than eight, the difference between the Rhamondre’s 14 points and either Dobbins or Pierce’s 22. This week’s unofficial rematch with a slap on the line will set the record straight. Even better: I lose, become Cameron’s bitch for the rest of the regular season, only to upset him in the playoffs (lol at the idea of me making the playoffs).
The reason we’re slap-betting: macho insecurity, specifically mine. And an innate desire I have to bring everything full-circle. Cameron made a trade. I thought it sucked. He beat me bad. I made a trade. Cameron thought it sucked. I want to beat him bad.
The trade: I traded Rashaad Penny and Dameon Pierce to Coleman for AJ Dillon and Justin Tucker. I also gave away Harrison Butker, who is finally going to play a game, but Coleman’s skeptical, so someone gets a free top-five kicker for the rest of the season. My defense of the trade: I’m stupid—no… well, maybe. I think it’s a textbook sell-high. I was going to bench Penny and Pierce this week because of bad matchups. The optics of these players having bad weeks on my bench, in my solipsistic mind, would lower their value and lead to either a worse trade or my being stuck with them. I think they’ll have decent value; I just don’t want them. I don’t want any Texans, and I don’t want to start Penny and Metcalf together unless it’s against the worst defense (hello, Detroit!). Dillon is getting as many carries as Pierce or Penny, he’s getting more targets than either, and he’s doing it all on a much better team. Cameron called him a timeshare back, but Pierce and Penny are timeshare backs. There are like seven RBs who aren’t in timeshares, and nobody was trading them to me for Pierce and Penny. And Tucker’s the goat, goodbye.
Roy etc. 178 – Tickets Please Guy 123
This was one of many blowouts. Oliver was favored until the players started playing. All of Kennedy’s players showed up, double digits across the board. Ekeler had a day befitting a third overall pick. Foye Oluokun had 20 points. Mahomes Mahomed. Kennedy even had two bench WRs in double digits. Kennedy is suddenly looking really solid. Hollywood has 40 FP in the last two weeks, Dak is coming back sooner than expected, and Brian Robinson might just start for Washington this week.
Oliver got smoked, but it’s not as bad as it looks. His IDPs and K combined for like 20 points. His WRs combined for six. Oliver has a big WR problem, and the only way it’s getting solved is if his 30-yo WRs get their shit together. Keenan Allen’s going on week four of his hamstring injury, Michael Thomas is going on week two of his toe injury, and no one knows what’s going on with Allen Robinson. Sean McVay says “nothing that’s happening is [Robinson’s] fault,” which doesn’t make me feel any better. Oliver’s strategy of filling his bench with cheap stashes didn’t work. He’s getting a little bit of action from Khalil Herbert. Isiah Pacheco is on the verge of a breakout. Christian Watson is firmly third behind Lazard and Doubs. So you’re waiting on an injury to one of them while waiting on the guys you have to heal. Excellent.
Tiny Rick 178 – Consider Me Miles Davis 103
Brian is the worst team in the league. He’s scoring 110 FP per week, a full 17 per game behind the next worst team. He’s been missing at least one of his best players every week. In Week 4, he had no Jameis, no Swift, and Pittman playing hurt. Starting CEH would have vaulted Brian ahead of Oliver, Shelby, Corey, and Max in Week 4 scoring. I guess what I’m saying is it’s not as bad as it looks. But it looks bad enough and probably feels bad enough that you should send Brian trade offers. Going off of Brian’s history, you probably can’t get Jameis, Pittman, Lamb, Akers, Burns, or Derwin without overpaying. Brian’s kind of a contrarian though, so maybe my saying that makes him more likely to move them. But maybe my saying THAT makes him more likely to keep them. Either way, October is the best time of year to make trades. Come November, some of us will be so screwed in the standings that we won’t give away our best players without some draft compensation.
Evan is the best team in the league. He’s scored the most points and won every game. He has yet to lead a single week in scoring, but his worst rank in one week was fifth in scoring. He’s dominating us. He’s Tom Hanks, Josh Allen is the Polar Express, and whether we can hear the bell or not, they’re rolling through our towns in the dead of night, taking our children, giving them the best memories of their lives, and we’re just out here packing lunches and signing permission slips. We’re fucked.
C’mon Football 152 – Goingback2back 115
Corey had the points on his bench to win, but he started Tua over Burrow and Freiermuth over Hockenson, which are reasonable plays, BUT they do go against what we’ve learned about having two players at the onesie positions. When you have two QBs, you have to pick a starter, and you have to roll with that starter until he becomes unplayable. Your starters are Burrow and Hockenson. You take Tua’s 60 on the bench and you say, great, at least I know I can play him if something happens to Burrow. There is a little more nuance at TE, but honestly I’ve never condoned the backup TE life. What’s that? I’m not allowed to talk TE strategy because I picked Pitts over Andrews and Kelce? Okay, fair. In other news, Corey lost his most legit RB for the season, or did he? Javonte was getting a better part of the timeshare in that terrible Broncos’ offense, but Robinson has been getting the better part of the timeshare in a pretty impressive Jags’ offense. Still, Corey’s down a starting RB, so behind Robinson it’s two of the best three ‘Ders RBs, and neither is going to be number one after next week. If you need a TE, like say you drafted Kyle Pitts and he’s going to be out with a hamstring injury for at least a couple weeks, maybe you throw a Rhamondre for ‘Muth offer and see what happens. I don’t know.
Spencer won because he had four players score 20 apiece and the rest didn’t flat-out suck. Corey got two from his QB, a combined seven from his star RBs, a combined eight from his Alabama WRs, and again, because he benched Burrow and Hockenson. But so even with Trevor Lawrence’s four turnovers against the Eagles, on the road, in the rain, Spencer got three times the QB output Corey did, and Spencer’s rolling out a competent team every week, even with injuries. And even though Lawrence looked bad, it really wasn’t the kind of bad that kills your confidence; he still threw two TDs. He kept the Jags in the game even after all his fuck-ups. Also, I’m really jealous of the Evans-Higgins combo. Are these the best red-zone ball-winners in football? You just toss it to the corner and they catch it even with a dude blanketing them. Unreal. And they each have a top-five QB in terms of ID’ing single coverage and placing the ball just right. Fuck. FUCK!
In-N-Out 130 – You’re Doing It Wrong 122
Fuck. I really thought Shelby was going to win this one. Everything was going right. Hurts and Andrews combined for under 20, all of Sean’s best players were held under 15 apiece. The Jamaal Williams 50-yard TD wasn’t great, but it wasn’t backbreaking. Shelby got the late magic from Kyler, a touchdown from Jeudy, 12 FP from Trevon Diggs… She needed Stefon Diggs to come down with that TD he dropped in the early window. She needed Tyler Boyd not to get tackled on the one. She needed Joe Mixon to get another inch on a goal-line run. She needed a better flex than Michael Carter, a better DX than Christian Kirksey. She needed George Kittle to play TE instead of LT. She didn’t get what she needed, and I’m bummed about it.
Sean survived a bad week from his best players, which is the kind of luck that gets you into the playoffs. He leads the league in depth at RB and WR. He can’t get Devin Singletary, lead-back for the best offense in the league, into his starting lineup without benching someone better—actually, idk, James Conner is kinda bullshit, but chalk says Conner’s the better option. And worst of all, I can’t buy Mark Andrews for anything and Sean knows it. I’m tormented by it. Mark Andrews raps at my chamber door crying nevermore and I feel the vibrations in my bone marrow.
Krombopulous M 156 – Pirates of the P 113
I was wrong about who the best QB would be in this matchup. I really didn’t think Jared Goff would make it work without Chark, St. Brown, and Swift, with Tom Kennedy starting at WR across from Josh Reynolds. It still doesn’t make sense. But it turns out it didn’t matter who Coleman started. Like 80% of Max’s output came from four players: Brady, Some Trash Asshole, Thielen, and Koo. You can win on that percentage, but not when the raw is 82 points. Max has nothing to worry about. Brady is Brady when the Bucs roll out real receivers. Max doesn’t have to start Amari Cooper or Gabe Davis if he doesn’t want to. It’s time to start Breece Hall. Shelby can confirm Breece Hall is the Jets’ starting RB. She can also confirm Budda Baker doesn’t score as many fantasy points as you’d expect from a top-three safety.
Coleman has been drafting good teams for a while. They always fall apart because he makes like three roster moves during each season. So don’t throw me shade for back-dooring him some depth this year. I’d do it again! (And I kind of owe him from that time I traded him Justin Forsett for Gronk straight-up way back in the ESPN days.) With the acquisitions of Penny, Pierce, and Tyler Allgeier, Coleman is low-key stacked at RB, after already being stacked at QB, WR, and DL. He doesn’t have a kicker, and to my shame, we’ll probably watch as Coleman has more kicker points than me between now and then end of the year. (Slap bet?)
Tiny Rick over Tickets Please Guy
aka “Take it to the Shit Store and Sell It”
Oliver starts the week with 30 from McManus and B.Chubb, but Evan might match that with Greg Joseph and Josh Allen. (DL Josh Allen, who I think Evan will keep as his DL all year now, so either he or QB Josh Allen need a good nickname. I like the Polar Express for the QB: he’s white as snow, he plays in the snow, and he plays like a runaway train. The DL needs workshopping. A couple spit-balls: Jag Allen, Josh Allen South, Jazz Allen (in honor of Jacksonville’s famous jazz festival and the DL’s versatility qua improvisation), Duval Scatman… I don’t know. The easiest to understand would be something like The Other Josh Allen or Josh Allen Also, which don’t feel reverent enough of an awesome player.)
Since Evan should dominate, I’ll just build the case for Oliver winning. First, Giants-Packers in London, where Oliver has Rodgers and Saquon facing off: Saquon breaks off a couple huge runs early, the Packers are able to even it up by halftime with a couple Rodgers bombs for TDs, the Packers pile on in the third quarter, Saquon gets 10 second-half receptions for 85 yards and a TD, Oliver gets like 65 points from this game alone—maybe 15 more if he starts Christian Watson, reason being that Amon-Ra is on track to play this week, pushing Oliver’s current starter Josh Reynolds outside into more of a decoy role (though I’m open to the possibility that Amon-Ra plays the decoy and healthy Reynolds continues to eat in the slot). Second, Panthers-Niners, where Oliver has CMC and Aiyuk: each scores a 70-yard TD, CMC on a perfectly executed screen pass, Aiyuk on a busted coverage from the Panthers’ backup deep safety down the middle of the field. Minimum 30 points combined. Oliver’s at 125 just from those four players and the 30 FP from Thursday. Khali Mack and Jordan Hicks each have a sack, and Jalen Ramsey shadows CeeDee Lamb in the slot and racks up three PDs, including an INT. Evan pours in points, too, but Oliver has the river card, Kelce on Monday night. I think if Evan wants to appease the fantasy gods, he should start Hunter Renfrow in that final flex spot, partly just to have the Monday night action, partly because Raiders-Chiefs should be a shootout, but mostly because the Chiefs’ defense is not ready for Renfrow. He’s missed a couple games and might fly under the radar in terms of the Chiefs’ game-planning. Plus, although Chiefs’ slot corner L'Jarius Sneed as been awesome playing the star position, his best attributes are length and tackling. In short area quickness/wiggle, Renfrow will shred him on like eight of ten targets, with at least one TD.
Prediction: Evan by 25
Roy over Miles Davis
aka “Taking Roy off the Grid”
Last week was just the beginning of Kennedy’s breakout. 178 is good, but this team has the firepower to eclipse 200, and they have the matchups to make it happen this week. Mahomes against a Raiders’ secondary that let Russ score 30 FP, Ekeler and Everett racking up screens and checkdowns as the Browns’ pass rush overwhelms the Chargers’ offensive tackles, Hollywood’s speed testing the Eagles’ D in a way they haven’t been tested yet, Fournette and Harris rushing for TDs, Danielle Hunter sacking Justin Fields three times, Demario and Foye racking up tackles against run-first offenses…
Brian’s matchups are just so-so. He could luck into 150 FP, but it won’t be enough. I can’t make a compelling case for Brian to win, which is how you know…
Prediction: Brian by 50
Krombopulos M over Culinary Institute
aka “Goodbye, Moon Men”
Two teams that combined for 350 last week come back down to Earth in this one. Cameron may have dodged the Russ bullet Thursday night (blame Brian), but Carson Wentz is also a bullet. Cameron’s best players will be Zach Ertz and Myles Garrett, who combine for 40 while the rest of the team combines for… 90? Tops?
Coleman’s best players will be Kamara, McLaurin, and Parsons. McLaurin’s great day neutralizes whatever Cameron gets from Wentz—honestly, McLaurin probably outscores Wentz after Wentz suffers three sacks and two turnovers against an unrelenting (if uninspiring) Titans’ defense. Coleman’s going to be disappointed in the early returns from Pierce and Penny, who have rough matchups this week and then Pierce goes on bye next week. I would start Drake London over Pierce, assuming the Falcons will be throwing the entire second half against the Bucs. Either way, we’re looking at two teams scoring 120-ish, much to the chagrin of whoever scores 150 this week and loses.
The one thing in Cameron’s favor is the timing of the matchups. Coleman has nine players in the early afternoon games, two players in the Dallas late afternoon game, and just Maxx Crosby after that. This is similar to what I threw against Cameron. I jumped out to a big lead and watched as Cameron slowly climbed back and then ahead in the later games. Half of Cameron’s team plays after 75% of Coleman’s team is done playing. It doesn’t matter at all statistically, but… drama!
Prediction: Coleman by 3
20min. Adventure over Goingback2back
aka “Adventure Forever; back2burrow”
Sean has better players but worse matchups. There is overlap on each side between QBs and WRs. Sean is starting Hurts; Corey is starting DeVonta. Corey is starting Burrow; Sean is starting Chase. Sean appears to have the better halves of both pairings. Sean also has an advantage at RB and TE. I don’t trust Antonio Gibson at all with Robinson coming back. If I were managing Corey’s team, I would bench Gibson, move James Robinson into the RB slot, and start my best four WRs. Corey’s IDPs and K can swing this game for him but only if Sean’s flex RBs get held out of the endzone, which feels likely but touchdowns are pretty random. I have to pick a winner, and I’m basing this one purely on which team’s players will touch the ball more.
Prediction: Sean by 7
C’mon Football over You’re Doing It Wrong
aka “It Makes Sense, Doesn’t It?”
Spencer has basically every advantage in this game. Shelby could have the higher-scoring WR1, DL, and LB, but Spencer should have the higher scoring WR duo and the IDPs should even out overall. I think Shelby needs JuJu in the flex over Michael Carter from now on, but I don’t think this is the week where the difference between those two makes any difference. The Eagles’ D is going to hold Kyler under 20 FP for sure; boldly I’d estimate under 10. The Ravens’ D is going to repeatedly stuff Mixon on inside runs, capping Mixon at about 15 FP. George Kittle is going to play left tackle for the 49ers, finishing with two catches—but maybe they’re huge catches! I think Shelby’s absolute ceiling this week is close to Spencer’s average weekly output. Spencer does not have great matchups, but he does have superior players at two-thirds of positions.
Prediction: Spencer by 15
Derrick Henry 100 Years over Pirates of the P
aka “The Commissioner’s Self-Jinx”
The bad luck continues for Max, and I’m fine reaping some benefit from that this week. I’m second in scoring and I’m ninth in the standings. The math says it’s my turn to win a game. The matchups mostly agree. Brady has a better matchup than Lamar, and Miami’s Trash Asshole is better than my best two WRs combined, and I’m starting Taysom Hill at TE. We are both rock solid at IDP and K. (I could probably be more solid at IDP by starting two LBs instead of two DBs, but I’m actually holding tryouts for my DB position this week, so I need them both in the lineup to see what they do with legitimate responsibility.) My edge comes from starting three RBs who could each realistically touch the ball 20 times on Sunday. My pseudo-edge comes from not stacking 75% of my players into one time slot like I did last week.
Prediction: pain
