The Tua mini-saga is a reminder of how desperate the league is the shroud any concussion story in mystery and doubt. Who knows whether he was concussed in that Bills game? Sure, he looked totally concussed and the team said he suffered a head injury, but then later, they said it wasn’t a head injury. Then after Thursdays for sure concussion, they said a team doctor and an independent neurologist cleared Tua to return to Sunday’s game. For his back injury? Wow, so confusing. Well, let’s trust the boys in blue or whatever to get to the bottom of it, right America? Let’s be a little more trusting of our corporate overlords and not question so much whether their lying about the things we can clearly identify with our own eyes. Oh, they changed the concussion protocol in what clearly looks like a response to Tua’s re-entry into Sunday’s game? But nobody did anything wrong. Two concussions five days apart can be deadly, so nobody did anything wrong, otherwise we’d have to set a precedent for how much the NFL risking a human life is worth, which would lead to way bigger payoffs than whatever backdoor deal they cut with Ryan Shazier. So IGNORE WHAT YOU SEE, DRINK COLD BEER, AND USE THIS PROMO CODE FOR $200 IN FREE PLAYS ON FANDUEL GO SHIELD.
Nearer and dearer to our hearts, our reigning champ and current standings leader in record and points started Tua over Burrow Thursday. Tua scored 2.2 FP before exiting, and Waddle wasn’t able to get shit going with Teddy B, so Corey’s already toast for Week 4, which is good news for all of us but especially good for Spencer, who’s looking to rebound after getting his shit absolutely rocked by me last week.
For the second straight week, bottom-three score earned a win. Brian should be 0-3 after scoring 340 points through three weeks, but because Shelby scored a league-low 86 against him in Week 3, Brian avoids being in last place alone. Right now, we have Corey and Evan at 3-0, Oliver and Sean at 2-1, and the rest of us at 1-2. There are five teams averaging that magic 150 points per week: Corey, Evan, Sean, Max, and me. Oliver is at 145. Coleman 140. Everyone else is below 135. Cameron is below 125. Brian brings up the rear at 113. But everyone has a win, and so even the worst of us is a win away from .500.
Trades are flying. First Trevor Lawrence, now Ja’Marr Chase.
Spencer locked up three years of a top-5 QB for the second time since we introduced keepers. He gives back a backup QB (injured Dak) and a starting WR (Hollywood). Spencer and Kennedy each increase their weekly projections, and just to make sure it got done with no mess, Spencer throws in the backup QB sweetener. I don’t normally vibe with QB trades, but under the circumstances, I expect to see another QB trade pretty soon.
Cameron gave away a top-5 WR for magic beans. Cameron says, “I need to raise my shitty floor.” Your QB scores 11 FP in Week 2 and 1 FP in Week 3, while Chase scores 11 and 9, while you’re starting trash at DB and DX, and yes, it’s Chase’s head that must roll.Fine. You trade Chase, fine. He’s valuable, but if you can use him to address multiple other issu—I’m sorry, you traded him for what? You’re hoping that you get a better floor from two players’ whose lowest scores this season are lower than Ja’Marr’s lowest? Two players whose lowest scores are lower than your best five WR/RBs’ lowest scores this season? If you tell me you meant “ceiling,” I can accelerate the grieving process toward acceptance. Fine, let’s say ceiling. You’re moving two timeshare RBs who are 1B to the bench for a timeshare RB who is 1A and a starting WR whose QB is elite when his rib cartilage is whole. There is a chance it works. At face value, it’s a bet against Ja’Marr Chase, which is bad. Worse, it’s a bet on a 31-yo RB and a boom/bust WR who probably peaked last year, and—AND—Patterson missed like 80% of practice this week with a knee issue. But I repeat, there’s a chance it works.
Don’t let my harsh criticism discourage anyone from trading, though. I love all trades. Keep making trades. Make trades with me. I don’t need five RBs or six IDPs. Shake my tree, babies.
Our Week 3 matchups had zero juice after the Sunday slate. Every game was a rout. Oliver was the closest to coming back, but even 20 from Barkley on Monday night left Oliver 14 short of a victory.
I crushed. 198 is the best score of the year so far. I feel vindicated. I drafted a team of alphas, and they finally played like a team of alphas. Lamar had 50 for the second straight week. Henry, Metcalf, and Pitts each scored more points in Week 3 than they had in Weeks 1-2 combined. The trio combined for 50, and the rest of my team went off, too. Dameon Pierce did bell-cow shit, except he also fumbled twice so now I wanna die a little bit. JK Dobbins came back, and Rhamondre Stevenson continued to take a bigger piece of New England’s timeshare. The Harrison Butker thing is annoying. I’m so dug in on the idea that Harrison Butker is a “don’t worry about it” kicker that I’m going into my third week of holding him while streaming a second kicker. Streaming is going so well that I feel dumb for holding Butker at all. But he’ll actually be back in Week 5, so… nope, still feel dumb about it.
Spencer escaped from QB hell, but QB hell is roomy and inviting. Brian and Cameron are deep inside, indulging in different circles just for kicks. Shelby and Coleman are hanging in the foyer. Their guests are Jameis Winston, Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff. I’m wondering whether any of them finishes in the top 10. Herbert, Wentz, and Kyler are in the top 10 right now, which speaks to how few QBs truly move the needle in this league. Cameron’s got me thinking about floors, so where are these QBs in terms of floor?
Jameis – 3
Stafford – 6
Russ – 8
Wentz – 1
Kyler – 14
Cousins – 11
Herbert – 17
Goff – 18
Compared to the floors of the rest of our QBs:
Lamar – 29
Allen – 35
Hurts – 30
Mahomes – 23
Burrow – 15
Tua - 2
Lawrence – 15
Carr – 13
Brady – 12
Rodgers – 2
All right, Coleman and Shelby are excused. Corey’s taking a guided Tua of hell this week, but he’ll Burrow his way out next week. Oliver can’t go to hell; Aaron Rodgers doesn’t believe in it.
What else? Um, how about who’s good or not? We did the scoring averages, but that paints with two broad a brush. Let’s get definitive.
Winners
Evan – best QB, best RB, a starting lineup soon to feature three top-15 WRs (AJB, Amon-Ra, and Godwin) on a weekly basis, with either Zeke or Miles Sanders in the second flex. There are cracks in the foundation: the IDPs are not as good as you’d hope. Lavonte hasn’t hit double-digits in a game yet, and Khalil Mack probably sees more double teams with Joey Bosa out. A weird thing happened with Evan’s DL spot. He started Aidan Hutchinson Week 1, got 0.5 FP. He dropped Hutchinson for Alex Highsmith. Hutch scored 20 in Week 2. Highsmith scored 3. Evan dropped Highsmith for Josh Allen. Highsmith scored 16 in Week 3. Allen scored 5. Evan’s sick of the runaround and he’s sticking with Allen. Two Josh Allens are better than one. Earnest IDP analysis will drive you crazy anyway.
Sean – third in scoring and he adds Ja’Marr Chase without sacrificing much. Patterson had 60 points in three weeks, but only half of them made it into Sean’s lineup. Sean’s not done converting depth into ceiling either. He still has way too many options for his flex spots and not enough flexibility to add people come bye weeks (his QB and K have their bye Week 7; even if he drops Tyler Bass, he’ll still need to empty one bench spot).
Corey – Is Corey good? Is leading the league in points good? I guess it depends how you do it. James Robinson’s 20 per week feels unlikely to last. Javonte is still splitting carries in a bad offense. Gibson is about to be splitting carries, too. So their situations seem unlikely to improve. Meanwhile, Corey’s got WR depth, but it’s hard to bench a starting RB. I think he has a brutal Week 4 that leads him to shake things up.
Fighters
Max – benching Tom Brady was the catharsis this team needed. Watching Njoku score 20 on the bench Thursday probably sucked, but watching those IDPs pour in 64 FP on Sunday afternoon probably felt amazing. Almost all of Max’s players are outplaying their draft price. It would be better if three of them weren’t Browns.
Doak – yeah, bitch! For at least one week, I fucking OWN. I dropped the top score, and I got a cash win. Nobody wants my players but me, and I’m fine with it. I badly want to move some of them, especially with only two healthy WRs, but I guess I should give them an encore before I break up the band.
Coleman – scary fucking lineup at face value: Herbert, Dillon, Jefferson, McLaurin, Kamara, London, with Olave on the bench. Tucker kicking, Parsons at DL, a guy named Sauce… scary shit. With Jefferson, Dillon, and Herbert coming off down weeks, I feel like I’d bet on Coleman to lead this week in points.
Spencer – absolute studs at QB, RB (3), WR (2), TE, LB, and DB. Solid depth at WR. The only problem: he’s maxed out at 149 FP so far, fifth in scoring the week he did it. I can’t anoint that. I need hard evidence your team is contending. Until then, you’re feisty, gritty, spunky, but you’re not a winner until you win with authority.
Conmen
Oliver – reigning MVP, perhaps the two best RB prospects of the last decade, another RB with the single-game high in FP so far this season, the single-season leader in receptions, a WR with 150 targets in each of his four full seasons, the active leader in career TDs among TEs, and one of four LBs with 30+ tackles this year.
Also Oliver – dirty hippy QB, three RBs on absolutely trash offenses, a WR who missed 26 straight games coming into this year who will also miss Sunday’s game, a WR averaging six FP per game over his last 15 games, the oldest starting TE in the league, and the second-best LB on the Vikings.
Losers (sorry)
Shelby – the worst insult I can hurl at you: I wish I were playing you sooner. Kyler, Mixon, Diggs, Kittle, Donald, and White can go off any week, but you have six other spots to fill and not a lot of solid options. Yet. She has four promising WRs, and she needs a real second RB, not necessarily solid enough to start every week but someone who doesn’t make her feel totally screwed if Mixon can’t play for some reason.
Kennedy – my gut says this is the worst team in Mortydome, but Kennedy has Mahomes, and the two teams I haven’t listed yet have the worst four QBs (among those rostered). Kennedy has enough talent to get back into contention with just one good week. His IDP talent is better than average, I think. But he has yet to break 140. His lone win came from scoring 11th on the week and facing the team scoring 12th.
Cameron – I can’t throw you in last. Last is a good omen. Nowhere to go but up and all that. No, you get 11th. You had a solid foundation and you took a sledgehammer to it for want of a better floor. The lesson I’m learning from your mistake (which I’m having trouble phrasing in a way I like): don’t mess up your best position without fixing your worst. Use your luxuries to address your needs. Fix literally the easiest position to replace without sacrificing literally the hardest position to replace. Ugh.
Fart69 – yeah, sorry. You’re eating massive shit in the scoring ranks, and it’s not necessarily because your team name’s a butt and your team picture’s a ball sac. I imagine these things don’t help your cause. The irreverence. The immaturity. You’re 33. Slap a weak pun on a played out meme, comb your hair, and put on some goddamn slacks.
Gotron over Roy
aka “Oliver does a Die Hard”
Oliver’s best players have awesome matchups. Kennedy’s, not so much. Oliver’s weakness is WR. Kennedy’s weakness is WR. So the one opportunity for advantage is a wash. Oliver has the best coincidence one can get in fantasy: he’s starting the go-to receiver for the opposing QB. Say Kelce has 100 yards. He gets 10 points and Mahomes gets 4. Mahomes has to throw another 150 yards to break even. Usually he does. Kelce only accounts for 27% of the Chiefs’ yards and TDs. To equalize Mahomes, he’d have to get 40% of the action in this matchup. Unlikely. But still, get 27% is a significant undercut. Metaphorically, this matchup will feel like Oliver executing Kennedy’s men one by one, and by the end Kennedy will feel like his season in an unstoppable free fall.
Tiny Rick over Anustart
aka “Evan rolls to 4-0”
Allen, Chubb, and AJB will combine for 75 points. (Oh shit, the Allen & AJ vs. The Justins update: 171 to 124. Yeesh.) Brian’s averaging 113, so Evan only needs 40 points from his other nine players, an average of 4.4 per player. Then again, Brian’s scored has high as 123 this year. So maybe Evan needs 50 from those nine other guys, just to feel safe. Evan’s lowest score this year was 142, by the way.
Squanch This over Krombopulous Michael
aka “The Battle of the Bench”
Right now, Max is starting Carr over Brady, and Coleman is starting Goff over Herbert. Brady will outscore the other three. Herbs will outscore the remaining two. Carr might be last, might be last by a lot, possibly enough to flip this prediction in Coleman’s favor. Coleman has a bunch of bad matchups but generally a better roster.
Doing It Wrong over In-N-Out
aka “Classic Mix-up”
It just feels like one of those games where it’s so obvious what should happen, but that door is open and you can see that crack of light leaking, and somehow Shelby’s pulling off this upset. I think she’d have a better shot flexing one of the WRs over Carter, but I also see a scenario where the Jets protect Zach Wilson by running the fuck out of the ball, which will be especially spicy counterpunch since all of their tape is of Joe Flacco throwing 50 times per game. Classic mix-up!
C’Mon Football over Goingback2back
aka “Don’t Bench Burrow”
Yeah, I’ve cheated by waiting this long to write the note. Tua and Waddle have 8 FP combined. Tee Higgins has 23. There are ways this game can turn around, but 2 FP from a QB is pretty much a death sentence, especially when we know Lawrence will make it rain in Doug Pederson’s triumphant return to Philadelphia. Corey, you missed the Tua game. When he gets healthy trade him to Cameron, hopefully before Cameron’s fugue state ends.
Derrick Henry over Benched Broncos
aka “I Killed Him. I Killed Him Dead.”
Yeah, I can make a case for Russ facing a trash defense and Lamar facing a good defense—in the rain, no less—and a few other things that suggest Cameron’s team can make things interesting, but my gut reaction is I’m going to crush him. My measured take is that I’m going to crush him. My thorough analysis is, “If he dies, he dies.”
