Our routines are safe and secure, but once they become strict, they become cages. Watch any living thing get confined and then find out it’s been confined. It tries to escape. Inside a seed, the cells start to divide, and eventually they break free. You can’t tell any plant has ever been a seed just by looking at it. You have to watch the whole process unfold to even believe it. It sounds insane.
Drafting a team and setting your lineup is a safe and secure routine until a couple weeks go by. I’m 0-2 in Mortydome and 2-0 in my other league. The feeling is similar. There is an itch. Is it a patch of dry skin? A burgeoning pimple? Allergies? Eczema? Psoriasis? Do I need to wait five minutes and forget about it forever, or do I need a doctor right this second? It doesn’t matter whether you’re 0-2 or 2-0.
There are players doing well and players doing poorly, and we learn every year that some trends last and some trends don’t. Football offers no reliable sample size. In a “normal” game, each offense runs about 60 plays, split into 33 pass attempts and 27 rush attempts. Out of 32 teams, there are just six hitting those numbers. The Bengals have run 80 plays per game. The Seahawks have run 48. The Bears have 14 pass attempts per game. The Jets have 52. The six “normal” teams are the Bills, Broncos, Jags, Lions, Packers and Pats, and they’re normal for different reasons. The Packers and Pats lean run-heavy but played from behind all of Week 1. The Bills lean pass-heavy but have been playing with a big lead for two straight weeks. The Jags and Lions played from behind all of Week 1 and ahead all of Week 2. The Broncos have been in dead-even games for all sixty minutes both weeks, and are the most “normal” team despite actually having the most bat-shit combination of coach and QB in the league.
For those of us who don’t live in southern Florida, the weather in changing. We were rocking shorts and Ts for months of 70-90 degree weather. No we’re getting into 50-70.
My tanks and my short-sleeve button-ups are going into a bin, and out of the bin come my thermals and sweats. In the morning I throw on a light sweater, and I take it off by midday. Soon my rain jacket will migrate from the closet to the hallway coatrack.
Some people are slow to accept the need for change. They are cold in the morning and comfortable in the afternoon, or they are comfortable in the morning and warm in the afternoon.
Not all leaders of NFL teams are reacting in real time to the change in weather. They have one static outfit and spend half their time in discomfort. Some fantasy managers find themselves doing the same. We all need to anticipate some change, but we also need to take it one layer at a time. (My thick socks and heavy coat are staying stashed until November.) But like I said, some of us live in southern Florida, where one extra layer is all you’ll need between now and next spring.
So without straining any further, the draft was a time for us to pick a fall wardrobe, with the understanding that there are some clothes we need now but won’t later, some we’ll need later but don’t have space for now, and some are good year-round. I’m invested in the metaphor for some reason. We’re sticking with it.
Roy 114 – 112 Benched Broncos
“Get in loser, we’re going shopping.”
Literally the two lowest scoring teams of the week, and one of them got a win. Annoying. Then again, it’s satisfying. Both of these teams might be bad. Kennedy’s team is for sure bad, and he was able to deal Cameron a loss in a down week, despite getting negative points from two different positions. Both of these teams need to look for help externally.
Russell Wilson has been bad for years; the change in scenery is just exposing it. Denver’s WR room is in shambles, and Russ has no history of saving a situation like that. He’s straight-up droppable. Cameron added Wentz on waivers, so we know he’s desperate. Cameron would probably leap at the chance to get a real RB. With the WR trio coming off a down week, now is the time to shoot your shot for Chase, Adams, or Deebo.
Corey and Cameron have a lot of reasons to trade with each other. Corey has Burrow, Javonte, James Robinson, and the Pats’ best WR. Cameron has Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Etienne, and Melvin Gordon. There’s some incentive to one of them taking the Broncos RBs and one of them taking the Jags. There’s temptation for either of them to pair Burrow with Chase. Here’s an idea:
Corey receives Jacobs, Gordon, and Chase
Cam receives Tua, Waddle, and Robinson
OR
Corey receives Etienne, Adams, and Wentz/Russ
Cam receives Burrow, Javonte, and WR
I don’t know. I just want to see some trades.
Kennedy needs WRs real bad. He basically has DJ Moore, Mooney, and Lazard. Moore and Lazard were decent on Sunday because they had TDs. These three WRs have combined for 103 yards, 86 from Moore, 13 from Lazard, and four from Mooney. Mooney has so few receiving yards through two full games (where he’s played 90% of each) that grammar rules bind me to spelling the number using fucking letters. Letters! Kennedy has legit starting RBs, and he has Trevor Lawrence on the bench. I don’t really condone trading for QBs, but Lawrence will be a top-10 QB this year. Cameron and Spencer should be throwing each other through windows trying to get this man. Brian, Oliver, and Max should at least be interested. Hell, Coleman might suddenly be in the market after Justin Herbert’s rib injury, especially since Justin Herbert’s team doctor is famous for turning Tyrod Taylor’s rub injury into a punctured lung.
The main point was offer a good WR and Kennedy will have to consider. Coleman can throw Olave out there. Oliver can throw Christian Watson out there since Kennedy can’t get enough Packers WRs. Brian can put in Diontae Johnson and get back Lawrence and Lazard. Cameron would have to make a more complicated offer, one that I don’t have the bandwidth for right now. Spencer could throw IR-eligible Dak with even his worst WR and start a real conversation. If I didn’t have Lamar, I’d have made my offer already (not that I have WRs worth anything anyway, but in theory).
Gotron 139 – 138 You’re Doing it Wrong
“What’s on your mind, Casey?”
“You’re wearing my shirt, Gordon.”
What the fuck is going on? On Monday night, Shelby won by a few points. On Tuesday morning, Shelby had only won by about .3. Now it says Oliver won by 1.1. I find that super frustrating. Obviously changing who won or lost two days later is bad, but this could also fuck with cash games if I don’t find out when, like, the window closes on them making more corrections. I just found out today (Thursday) that Oliver won. It feels justified. Oliver had a bunch of solid performances. Shelby had three dudes go nuclear. But it still bothers me that things are happening under my nose in this league. I’m supposed to be the boss! ME!
Anyway, this game basically came down to JuJu doing jack shit on Thursday night and Shelby having to scrape back in with Kyler’s incredible Sunday afternoon and Stefon Diggs’ wholly unreal Monday night. If Matt Prater had just hit a field goal, Shelby would have won. (Or actually, if the Cardinals weren’t such a clusterfuck that they could have just kicked XPs on three of their four TDs, she would have won that way, too.)
Other notes: Michael Carter is already losing ground to Breece Hall, Kirk Cousins is bad again but will probably be good again soon and then bad again and then good aga…
Packers LB DeVondre Campbell only had four tackles despite playing 100% of snaps at MLB, where he had a million tackles last year, because the Bears only ran 41 plays on offense. I would be nervous starting IDPs against the Bears and Seahawks (and probably Panthers and Steelers) right now for the same reason I would be nervous starting players for those offenses: fewer plays = fewer opportunities for fantasy points, especially if you’re relying on a stat like a tackle that only one player can get one of per down.
Tiny Rick 169 – 129 Squanch This
“Oversized hat. It’s funny.”
Josh Allen’s arm is just too much. We are not worthy, and I’m not happy about it. I can’t fully enjoy it because Evan shot his shot, and it was technically a bad shot, and for some reason it works. It works because Josh Allen’s arm is bigger than a, y’know, normal arm. Even for an NFL QB, Josh Allen’s arm is next level. The Titans’ secondary is really bad right now, and the Rams’ secondary looks pretty bad outside of Ramsey, so it’s not like Josh Allen is unstoppable. But until he gets stopped, well…
Oh, do you know who leads all RBs in fantasy points through two weeks. Any guesses? No, it’s not one of the first-round guys. Only two of them are even in the top ten. Yes, of course it’s Nick Chubb. Duh.
Allen & AJ: 116
The Justins: 105
So much for that bit.
Max’s first full season in Mortydome is off to a rough start. He narrowly lost the melee, and then he went up against a buzzsaw in Week 2. It doesn’t help that Tom Brady is washed. For Bucs fans, it’s fun. The defense has to create good field position and sometimes even score because the offense can’t. This is how Bucs football is supposed to be.
Goingback2back 175 - 123 Coreygivemeenergy
“You ain’t cool unless you pee your pants.”
Or something more analogous to shitting the bed. Brian started Jameis all right. He saw the news about the four fractured vertebrae and he said don’t tell me how bodies work, they thought Jesus was dead and look how that turned out. So Brian’s 0-2, would have been 0-2 against anyone but Cameron or Kennedy. Kinda sucks he had to lose to the week’s top scor—nope, nevermind, that was me. Anyway…
Brian had a decent week outside of Jameis being literally the worst starting QB in fantasy Week 2, including Trey Lance who played like ten snaps before breaking his ankle. His RBs and WRs all scored between 12 and 16 points. Not bad. Not great. His TE scored another zero, so he’s fired. Brian Burns, Bobby Wagner, and Derwin James combined for 36, which is great. Isaiah Simmons should be fired, but Brian’s super into him for some reason. Stafford was better than I realized, posting 26 FP despite throwing two picks.
Corey gets a combined 64 from Kupp and Waddle and decent performances from everyone else. His team is in a good rhythm. Everyone has a high floor, and the ups and down come on different weeks so that the overall team floor is high, too. Burrow has been bad, but it doesn’t matter. I never loved Corey starting Bosa and Warner, and I don’t really love anyone starting two IDPs from one team, but at least it’s obvious which one should go. Dude, and Corey’s bench went off? Corey’s bench had 128 FP. The six players on Corey’s bench outscored Brian’s whole starting lineup.
C’mon Football 149 – 145 Krombopulous Michael
“I like my Skechers, but I love my Prada backpack.”
Elijah Moore is the Skechers. Garrett Wilson is the Prada backpack. Coleman is Joseph Gordon-Levitt, specifically in the scene the quote is from. He’s in the background. He’s slowly rolling down a cliff—no wait, that’s the other guy. Anyway, Coleman’s week was looking really good before Herbs got hurt. It was looking good all weekend despite the injury. Going into Sunday night, Coleman had a fat lead, and he still had Justin Jefferson, AJ Dillon, and Dawson Knox left to play. Spencer had Aaron Jones, Dallas Goedert, Haason Reddick, and Jordan Poyer left. I think Coleman led by like 30-40. Even with Aaron Jones’ 37, it didn’t really feel like Spencer was in it. I think sleeper was still only giving him like a 20% chance. Great comeback, team effort, etc. It’s pretty fun watching a comeback like that close out the week, which we’ve gotten both of these first weeks.
Coleman, there’s really nothing you could have done. Kamara had the injury, and Ingram ended up being as good as anything in free agency. You started all the right players, which is a low bar to clear because your bench sucks. But still, tough loss, especially if you’re getting like a C-plus version of Herbert for at least a few weeks.
20min. Adventure 179 – 153 100 Years
“And now I’m making your silver pants blue.”
153 points looks great. Consider that 55 came from one player, 22 came from one other, and 20 came from another, and you start to peel back the layers and see the real trouble my team is in. Those three players I drafted in the 3rd, 8th, and 16th, respectively. My 1st, 2nd, and 4th picks combined for 17 FP. Last week they combined for 14. Improvement!
Sean led the league in points this week. Jalen Hurts looked incredible, BUT the Vikings defense did some really weird shit that most teams won’t do in defending Hurts. They played a 2-high shell, which is en vogue because it prevents Mahomes and Allen from torching everybody all day, but it doesn’t make sense to play two high safeties against a team that’s main two plays involve running or throwing underneath. That said, Hurts launched a bomb to Quez Watkins deep for a 55-yard TD. The ball was underthrown, but nobody was around to do anything about it. (The same can be said for Tua’s deep balls on Sunday, btw.) Mark Andrews had 22 points, and yes, I noticed that if I had Andrews and Sean had Pitts, I would have won. I noticed it, yep. Noted. Noticed and noted. Not going crazy, just being clear that I noticed that. Yes.
Derrick Henry 100 Years over C’mon Football
I just need a win, dude. I’m starting all my best players for once instead of getting cute. Henry, Pitts, and Metcalf finally have good matchups. Just… give it. Justin Fields has a nice matchup, sort of, but the Bears don’t call passing plays. Fields has the wheels, but if he’s only getting like 100 passing yards and 50 rushing yards, you need two TDs and nothing bad to happen just to break 20 points. Najee has been about as bad as Henry this year. All of Spencer’s other players are coming off good weeks and so now it’s time for bad ones.
Btw, Spencer needs an IDP and has a glut at WR. He has to drop a WR or James Cook. If you like anything there enough to avoid a waiver fight, send him an offer!
Goingback2back over Gotron
Someone is getting their first loss, and we might not know until a week from today with however these effing stat corrections work. But anyway. Oliver is starting a time-travelling hippie against the league’s best defense. Corey is starting one of the best five QBs in the league against the Jets. He’s got Kupp and Waddle in should-be shootouts, and he’s got at least two more good Antonio Gibson games left. Oliver is starting Brandon Aiyuk again because the rest of his bench is rookies and backups. The reason he won’t drop anyone is Justin Jefferson, who Oliver cut one week too soon early in his rookie year. I think Oliver can withstand two more weeks of this. He’s not passing up anything major in free agency, he’s working his way up the waiver order, and he’s got a full lineup, even if it means auto-starting Aiyuk every week.
Corey is going to win, and he’s going to keep winning, and he’s going to face Josh Allen in the finals, and he’s going to beat Josh Allen, and he’s going to make a rule that whoever wins the league gets to keep the best player from the team they beat in the championship, and he’s going to name his team Goingback3back and he’s going to win one more time, and god help us if he gets to make a third rule.
You’re Doing it Wrong over Anustart
Shelby deserves a win after whatever happened last week. Anyone who had Diggs last week deserved a win. He was amazing. He will be amazing again against Dolphins secondary that’s slowly deteriorating. Xavien Howard will be playing through a groin injury. Byron Jones is on IR. Diggs will have some matchups against Nik Needham and Kader Kohou, which are real life people and not fringe characters in the Harry Potter universe.
Brian is starting Jameis Winston against a pretty good Panthers defense, with Brian Burns just devouring this replacement-level LT the Saints are forced to start (as he has been devoured each of the last two weeks). He’s still starting Isaiah Simmons, so that position’s capped at five points. Other than that his team is actually pretty good, but his potentially nuclear producers, Swift and Pittman, are playing hurt and unlikely to reach their ceilings.
Benched Broncos over Tiny Rick
Listen: I don’t want either of these fools to win, but as an 0-2 team, I need everyone to sink toward the middle. The problem is: Evan’s team is better than Cameron’s, and all of Evan’s players have good matchups. Cameron is starting Carson Wentz against the Eagles, which isn’t a narrative street take until it becomes Carson Wentz @ the Eagles in Week 10, but the Eagles defense is good, and the ‘Ders just lost their center, who was maybe their best lineman. The Eagles are especially strong in their interior d-line. It’s going to be so, so bad for Wentz. Russ won’t be any better. Trade for Lawrence already. You have a chance with Lawrence. Your RBs and receivers have good matchups. You can pull off the upset if you just please give a shit about the most important position. Please. But even then Lawrence is playing that stacked Chargers’ defense. Maybe this isn’t the week. Evan’s getting 30 from Chubb tonight, and it’s only getting worse for Cameron after that.
In-N-Out 20min. Adventure over Krombopulous Michael
Coleman has Herbert and Kamara dealing with rib injuries, so what’s kind of a toss-up leans in Sean’s favor for that reason. Jalen Hurts is facing another shit defense this week, and all of Sean’s other players are the best players on their respective teams. An interesting wrinkle: Coleman starts Herbert, Sean starts Mike Williams. With Keenan Allen out, Herbert locks in on Williams, which gives Sean an advantage UNLESS the Chargers decided to protect Herbert with quick throws and lots of handoffs. There’s really no need to risk things this soon. It would take away Sean’s advantage but not necessarily give Coleman anything. We also have Dalvin Cook vs. Justin Jefferson, and maybe Patterson vs. London if Sean would just fucking cool it with Brandin Cooks against one of the best corners in the league (Bears’ Jaylon Johnson).
I love Coleman’s IDP strategy so much. He’s starting three pass-rushers and a great rookie corner, the latter of which is brilliant because unlike great veteran corners, teams won’t avoid him yet, so he’ll get a ton of opportunities. (Derek Stingley is still available if you want to try for yourself.) The three pass-rushers move is something I considered before the draft and something I’m still considering. I like the security of seven points I get from tackle-hound LBs, but the variance of dynamic 5 or 15 is tempting compared to a more static 7-10 range.
Squanch This over Roy
It’s not that Max needs the win. It’s that Kennedy’s team is just so bad. Ekeler will probably have 30 point this week. Fournette and Harris probably combine for 25. Mahomes against the Colts is interesting. Frank Reich knows how to handle Andy Reid. The Colts will run lots of clock and play their defense super deep to keep the game low-scoring and give the Colts a chance to win. Mahomes should still get 25, but you need more with those trash receivers and unfavorable matchups elsewhere.
Max has benched Tom Brady, and I feel really good about it. I don’t feel good about him starting two Browns on a Thursday night in 20 MPH winds, but one of them is a RB so whatever. The real issue in this lineup is technical: if you’re playing dudes on Thursday, don’t put them in your flex. Put them in their position spot so your flex maintains flexibility if weird things happen between Thursday and Sunday/Monday. But Derek Carr against a fractured Titans defense is going to be awesome for Max. And the Carr-Waller stack makes its debut, too. As I said, the Colts are going to give Taylor 30 carries, which means 100 yards and a TD, minimum. Roquan Smith being out would suck, but you got options in free agency. (Shelby just dropped a good one in DeVondre.)
All right, good luck everybody.
