The first part of this note was more like brainstorming than an intentional thing, and the second part is the organized team rankings, with a theme that makes no sense but faithfully upheld regardless. Someone with more class might clean up the brainstorming piece or delete it all together, but Cameron has a 13-hour flight, so it’s content city up in here.
First person to get a QB – Evan takes Josh Allen fifth overall, prompts the question, “Was that an autodraft?”
Last person to get a starting QB – Brian takes Jameis Winston in the 9th Round, which is early but, okay, Corey took Jameis in the 10th last year so maybe there was cause for concern he’d do it again. Brian more than likely got the QB steal of the draft with Matthew Stafford in the 16th, which is a waste because Brian won’t play him and nobody trades for QBs in this league.
Riskiest QB situations – Sean and Spencer leave with Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance, respectively, and no backups. They should be jousting with broken pool sticks for the rights to Kirk Cousins.
Best QB available – Kirk Cousins has been a legitimate fantasy starter for like seven years, and all indications are that his offense improved over the offseason.
Worst QB rostered – excluding Deshaun Watson, who I hope was a publicity stunt, it’s honestly a solid group. There are only 17 QBs rostered, so there’s not much room for fat anyway. Hurts, Carr, and Tua have the weakest arms, but they play in well-designed offenses with excellent skill players around them. Carr and Tua have the worst offensive lines. Trey Lance is the least accurate. Dak is the most boring (according to Evan, originally, but I agree). I’m gonna have to go with Aaron Rodgers for being the biggest asshole. Based solely on QB play, though, the worst QB is Tua.
First to get a TE – Doak takes Pitts over Kelce and Andrews and doesn’t even get the keeper status that Oliver and Sean get with the latter.
Last to get a TE – Evan waits until Round 16 to take Tonyan, then drops him for Hunter Henry, who Spencer cut after the draft.
The TJ Watt sweepstakes – Oliver actually showed some restraint waiting until the 5th to take Watt, who might have gone sooner had he not left last Sunday’s game with a knee injury. Watt is supposedly fine. I’m pretty shook that Kennedy thought Dalton Schultz was a better investment than Watt in the 5th.
Least IDP investment – Sean didn’t fuck around at all. He drafted one IDP in the 15th and then cut him after the draft. In the week following the draft, he cut his final four picks to get his IDPs. Spencer waited until the 10th to start with the IDPs, then went away from it again until the final two picks. He cut Hunter Henry after the draft to fill his IDP FLEX (which I’ll abbreviate to DX throughout the season). I drafted my first IDP in the 12th and drafted the other three with my last three picks. Oliver is the only team missing an IDP starter.
Most IDP investment – Brian had all four IDP spots filled by the end of the 11th. Corey drafted three IDPs in the 7th, 9th, and 10th.
Whatcha gonna do with all that Jet?
This question is for Spencer, who picked Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Michael Carter, three of five total Jets players worth drafting. He got them at value, letting them fall to the 8th, 11th, and 14th, respectively. But now what? Wait for them to be good and trade them? Who’s trading for a Jet?
Pre-Draft QB Ranks (among our starters)
1. Allen - Evan
2. Mahomes - Kennedy
3. Lamar - Doak
4. Burrow - Corey
5. Herbert - Coleman
6. Brady - Max
7. Kyler - Shelby
8. Russ - Cameron
9. Lance - Spencer
10. Rodgers - Oliver
11. Jameis - Brian
12. Hurts - Sean
Notes: if I had Mahomes ranked ahead of Lamar, why would I draft Lamar before Mahomes? I’m a sick individual. Also sick: I secretly want to rank Joe Burrow #1, but if Corey has the #1 QB for a third consecutive year, I don’t know what I’ll do. Probably just cry in the shower, biting a bar of soap. Brady will probably crack the top five again, so I guess I’m nervous about Justin Herbert regressing this year? Or, fuck, my Lamar pick looks even worse.
If Brian were starting Stafford, he’d be between Wilson and Lance. If Sean were to pick up Kirk Cousins, he would be between Rodgers and Winston… which would still make him last if Brian started Stafford.
Pre-Draft RB Ranks
1. Taylor
2. Henry
3. CMC
4. Dalvin
5. Ekeler
6. Najee
7. Chubb
8. Mixon
9. Aaron Jones
10. Kamara
11. Swift
12. Javonte
13. Saquon
14. Akers
15. Lenny
16. Dobbins
17. Zeke
18. Dillon
19. Jacobs
20. Conner
21. Etienne
22. Clyde
23. Pierce
24. CryptoHenry
25. Montgomery
26. Gibson
27. Breece Hall
28. Eli Mitchell
29. Sanders
30. Rhamondre
31. D.Harris
32. Penny
33. James Cook
34. Singletary
35. Edmonds
36. Pollard
37. James Robinson
38. Ken Walker
39. Brian Robinson
Ranking Our RB Rooms
1. Sean (Dalvin, Conner, Crypto, et. al.)
2. Spe (Najee, Jones, DMG, J.Cook)
3. Oliver (CMC, Saquon)
4. Brian (Swift, Akers, Clyde)
5. Coleman (Kamara, Dillon, Walker)
6. Doak (Henry, Dobbins, Pierce, Rham)
7. Kennedy (Ekeler, Lenny, Eli, D.Harris)
8. Evan (Chubb, Zeke, Sanders)
9. Max (Taylor, Breece)
10. Corey (Javonte, Gibson, J.Robinson)
11. Cameron (Etienne, Jacobs, Pollard)
12. Shelby (just Joe Mixon)
Notes: Sean has six starting RBs. Shelby has one. Brian has three potential bell-cows, but each has an asterisk. Oliver’s RBs haven’t been good since 2019, but they’re healthy now, and the situations around them have improved. Kennedy probably feels snubbed after taking RBs in the first two rounds, but those aren’t the kind of RBs I get excited about. Hey, if I told you Evan drafted RBs in the 2nd, 5th, and 9th, would you have imagined a group that good? Max is ranked low because I don’t believe in Breece Hall. I think his numbers from the combine overinflated his draft stock. The Jets should have drafted Ken Walker. I could have ranked Cameron last since I believe there’s a good chance none of his RBs finish top-20. But Shelby only has one RB, so I have to make an example of her. Corey’s ranked low, but that whole 4-10 range is one big cluster to me.
Pre-Draft WR Ranks
1. Chase
2. Jefferson
3. Kupp
4. Adams
5. Diggs
6. Lamb
7. Deebo
8. Evans
9. some trash asshole
10. AJ Brown
11. Keenan
12. Godwin
13. Metcalf
14. A.Robinson
15. Diontae
16. Pittman
17. Tee Higgins
18. Mike Williams
19. McLaurin
20. DJ Moore
21. JuJu
22. Michael Thomas
23. Sutton
24. Hollywood
25. Cooks
26. Thielen
27. Renfrow
28. Waddle
29. Mooney
30. E.Moore
31. Kirk
32. Nuk
33. Bateman
34. GabeDave
35. Jeudy
36. Olave
37. Lazard
38. Cooper
39. Sun God
40. Cooper
41. Woods
42. Lockett
43. Pickens
44. McKenzie
45. DeVonta
46. Aiyuk
47. London
48. Toney
49. MVS
50. Dotson
Ranking Our WR Rooms
12. Doak (DK, Kirk, Nuk, Toney, McKenzie)
11. Max (STA, Thielen, Cooper, Gabe)
10. Kennedy (DJ, Mooney, Lazard)
9. Oliver (Keenan, Robinson, Thomas, Aiyuk)
8. Corey (Kupp, Waddle, DeVonta, Lockett, Meyers)
7. Spencer (Evans, Tee, Hollywood, Elijah, Woods, Gallup)
6. Sean (MikeWill, Sutton, Cooks, Bateman, Julio)
5. Coleman (Jefferson, Terry, London, Olave)
4. Shelby (Diggs, JuJu, Jeudy, Boyd, Dotson)
3. Evan (AJB, Godwin, Amon-Ra, Renfrow, Pickens)
2. Brian (Lamb, Pittman, Diontae, Landry, MVS)
1. Cameron (Chase, Adams, Deebo)
Notes: My biggest fear in making my first three picks the way I did was that I wouldn’t make up the WR deficit and HERE WE ARE, living my nightmare. The bottom of this list was easy: Max is counting on a breakout from Gabe Davis or else he’s starting Thielen and Cooper every week (assuming he starts Breece Hall with impunity.) Kennedy has starting WRs in bad situations, though this might finally be DJ Moore’s year. Oliver and the old dudes. Corey can start Meyers without fear if he has doubts about those three in the middle. Spencer and Sean are sharing a canoe called definitely benching the wrong WR each week. Cameron doesn’t have much behind that big three but DAYUM.
Pre-Draft TE Ranks (among our starters)
1. Pitts - Doak
2. Andrews - Sean
3. Kelce - Oliver
4. Kittle - Shelby
5. Waller - Max
6. Hockenson - Corey
7. Schultz - Kennedy
8. Goedert - Spencer
9. Ertz - Cameron
10. Kmet – Brian
11. Knox – Coleman
12. Henry – Evan
Was Kyle Pitts always my #1 or is it revisionist history based on how that pick was made? I’ll never tell. Andrews was far superior to Pitts last season: 107 catches to 68, 1,361 yards to 1,026, 9 TDs to 1, 75 FDs to 43. But Pitts had the win in one stat that could make the difference: yards per reception: 15.1 to 12.7. Assume Pitts will see more targets and Andrews will see fewer. This follows a logical thread: the Ravens were 9th in passing volume last year. The two years prior, when they were good, they were dead last in pass attempts. They threw a lot of passes last year because their gameplan went to shit when their offensive line, their RBs, and their DBs all got hurt. They were forced to throw to stay in games.
Mark Andrews’ target share hasn’t changed that much. In 2019, it was 23%. In 2020, it was 22%. Last year, it was 25%. The Ravens threw 600 passes in ’21, compared to 400 and 440 the two years prior. Even if you split the difference and give them 500, Andrews comes out with 125 targets, which is 30 down from last year but 30 up from the year prior. So you split the difference there, too, and see what happens: Mark Andrews has about 85 catches for 1,100 yards. Compare that to Pitts’ 68 catches for 1,026 yards last year, and now we’re getting close.
It's a long walk to take to not feel totally stupid for passing up Mark Andrews in his prime, knowing I would have been stacking him with Lamar and just raining points most weeks, especially when you consider Pitts will probably change QBs midseason, going from Mariota to Ridder. Why did I do this to myself?
So Sean’s got a pretty good TE. Oliver has one, too. Shelby’s at the cutoff. After Kittle it’s a steep drop. Even Kittle is iffy with his targets dipping below 100. Waller had a good run, but he’s hurt, and he’s the third best receiver, fourth overall option in his offense. Hockenson could become TE5, but I bet that’s only good for 150 points, compared to the 200+ we expect from the big four. You have to have TE size, WR speed, and a reason to lead your team in targets (or get close).
Besides the six TEs already mentioned, the only players who have all three of those things are David Njoku, Logan Thomas, and Daniel Bellinger. Njoku could lead the Browns in targets, even if Cooper is healthy. Logan Thomas can get close to McLaurin’s 130-average. Daniel Bellinger is the Giants’ rookie TE who is also the Giants’ longest tenured TE. I mean, can you confidently tell me who will be the Giants’ best receiver this year? Why not Belly?
I get why people took fliers on Albert O and Evan Engram. Both have legit WR speed and haven’t been in vertical offenses until this year.
I also understand why Mike Gesicki went untouched. He’s dropped to third or fourth in the pecking order, he’s not a true TE, and there are rumors the Dolphins want to move on. I also feel like maybe the Dolphins are sandbagging us a little.
Pre-Draft DL Ranks (among our starters)
1. TJ Watt
2. Parsons
3. Garrett
4. Donald
5. N.Bosa
6. Heyward
7. Barrett
8. Hunter
9. Mack
10. Chandler
11. Burns
12. Hendrickson (I guess)
It mostly centers around TFLs and sacks, since being high on both lists shows players making an impact against the run and the pass.
TJ Watt has led both categories the last two years, averaging:
22 TFLs, 19 Sacks, 7 PDs, 3 FFs, 38 QB Hits
Micah Parsons’ rookie season was close as anyone got in 2021:
20 TFLs, 13 Sacks, 3 PDs, 3 FFs, 30 QB Hits
Shaq Barrett’s 2019 was close:
19 TFLs, 19 Sacks, 2 PDs, 6 FFs, 37 QB Hits
And Aaron Donald’s 2018 rivals TJs numbers:
25 TFLs, 20 Sacks, 1 PD, 4 FFs, 41 QB Hits
The last DL this dominant was JJ Watt. His average from 2012-15:
30 TFLs, 17 Sacks, 10 PDs, 4 FFs, 47 QB Hits
Myles Garrett had career-highs everywhere but FFs in 2021:
17 TFLs, 16 Sacks, 3 PDs, 1 FF, 33 QB Hits
Only Nick Bosa’s 2021 gives us any hope:
21 TFLs, 15 Sacks, 1 PD, 4 FFs, 32 QB Hits
And yet Bosa scored 65 fewer points last year. Oh, and TJ Watt missed two games, while Bosa didn’t miss any. What do we do with this information? Run and hide.
Pre-Draft LB Ranks
1. Roquan
2. Devin White
3. Lavonte
4. Kendricks
5. Oluokun
6. DeVondre
7. Mosley
8. Jordyn Brooks
9. Leonard (injured)
10. Wagner
11. Holcomb
12. Warner
13. Logan Wilson
14. Kyzir
15. Queen
16. Bolton
Not much to say here. Really wore myself out with all the TE and DL talk.
Pre-Draft DB Ranks (among our starters)
1. Derwin
2. Jamal
3. Winfield
4. Budda
5. Kenny Moore
6. Minkah
7. Chinn
8. McKinney
9. Bates
10. Diggs
11. Sauce
12. Hamilton
The rookies were not ranked beforehand. I put Sauce ahead of Hamilton because of his name, because he’s coming out with a BBQ sauce called “Sauce Sauce,” and because he’ll play all the snaps while Hamilton’s role is less certain.
Pre-Draft K Rankings
1. Tucker
2. Butker
3. Carlson
4. Gay
5. Bass
6. McPherson
7. Koo
8. Lutz
9. Hopkins
10+. all the same to me
Sorry if your kicker didn’t make the cut. Maybe try not sucking next time? Or go pick up Wil Lutz.
All right, I know what you people really want. You want to know who’s best, who’s got the most juice, who’s getting the commissioner’s jinx, who should start planning to sell off their best players for second-round picks (never firsts!), who’s making the leap, who’s gonna bust, who’s gonna have to take the SATs at a WNBA game while eating a ghost pepper. Let’s get into it.
I did the pre-draft rankings to give myself some idea of how to order these things, but I’m not taking the quantitative approach I’ve done in the past. It’s holistic. I’m putting all 12 rosters next to each other and just vibin’.
But Doak, what was the point of laying out all those rankings if you’re just going to go off vibes? GREAT QUESTION because I made a meticulous little draft sheet to use while drafting and then, while the draft was actually happening, I didn’t fucking look at it once!
But isn’t it eschewing growth to repeat your mistakes like that? Shouldn’t you be learning and trying to get better and setting an example for others? Maybe in real life. But this is fantasy. We need to shake our hips on that dance floor now and worry about who’s behind us later.
Seamless transitions. That’s what we do here.
12. Gotron
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB Christian McCaffrey
WR Keenan Allen
WR Allen Robinson
TE Travis Kelce
FX Saquon Barkley
FX Michael Thomas
K Brandon McManus
DL Cam Heyward
LB TJ Watt
DB Jamal Adams
DX (empty)
Bench: Brandon Aiyuk, Skyy Moore, Tyler Allgeier, Christian Watson, Kenny Gainwell, Khalil Herbert, Kenny Golladay
The average age of Oliver’s starting lineup is 29.9 years old. The average age of their joints and ligaments is 65. The average age of his bench is supposedly 25, but they listen to a lot of Kenny G. Take Golladay off that list, and the average age is 23. The intention here is clear: your established veterans start the season strong; if/when they fade, the young guys take their place. The only problem is it’s too straightforward. You spent your good picks on the old guys then got a bunch of discount young guys. If anything bad happens to any of these dudes who have a history of bad things happening to them, you don’t have one reliable replacement.
I have to hate because I ranked you last. I can’t rank you last and be like, “Oh but everyone is actually awesome.” No. You’re last. And the only thing you can do is play your way out. When your 2018 All-Stars get a melee win Week 1, I’ll say nice things about you. I’ll talk about how Jamal Adams is the TJ Watt of DBs and how Cam Heyward’s stats aren’t that far off from Aaron Donald’s the last few years.
…
Ugh, fine! Let’s talk about upside.
Rodgers won the last two MVPs. In three full seasons, McCaffrey averaged 1,800 yards and 13 TDs. Keenan Allen is averaging 1,000 and 7 in two seasons with Herbert. Allen Robinson joins a McVay offense whose top two WRs average 13+ FP per game every year. Kelce has been a top-two fantasy TE for the last six years. Barkley is one of four active players to have had a 2,000-yard season. Michael Thomas holds the single-season reception record. TJ Watt is TJ Watt.
As for the young guys: Aiyuk is already averaging 55 yards per game in his first two seasons, and Year 3 is usually a WRs breakout season. Skyy Moore could be the Chiefs’ most complete WR, and he should get playing time right away. He’s definitely the guy Oliver needs to hold onto longest. Allgeier is competing for RB2 duties in Atlanta, where the RB2 will get close to 200 touches. Atlanta’s other two RBs are over 30. Christian Watson is the Packers’ highest WR pick since… Davante Adams (and before that, Randall Cobb). Kenny Gainwell has the talent to be a premier pass-catching back. Khalil Herbert started four games last year, averaging 97 yards per game; Montgomery averaged 88. The problem is that, outside of Aiyuk, none of these players are starters yet, and so it’s all hope and projection. Oliver really needs his old man lineup to stay up for as long as possible. [insert Cialis joke]
Who’s Behind You: Chris Berman (Boomer)
11. One Ass Cheek and 3 Toes
QB Lamar Jackson
RB Derrick Henry
WR DK Metcalf
WR Christian Kirk
TE Kyle Pitts
FX JK Dobbins
FX Dameon Pierce
K Harrison Butker
DL Shaq Barrett
LB CJ Mosley
DB Kenny Moore
DX Nick Bolton
Bench: Rhamondre Stevenson, Kadarius Toney, Isaiah McKenzie, Boston Scott, DeAndre Hopkins (suspended), Logan Thomas (injured)
I was prepared for this draft to go poorly. I didn’t have a 5th, which became a pretty big deal once all the keepers were returned to the pool. I went from missing out on a Brandin Cooks to missing out on an AJ Dillon. It hurt, but probably not as much as committing to a strategy centered around Lamar Jackson at the 3.02.
I spent a week debating between Derrick Henry and Ja’Marr Chase. I wanted it to be Chase because he’s amazing and he’s ascending and the injury risk for WRs is low. But I would mock draft Chase at 1.02, get to the second round, and be faced with the choice of Aaron Jones as my best RB, Deebo as my second WR, or an elite TE. Lamar, Jones, and Chase is a fine top three, but subbing in Henry and the overall TE1 felt like more total points. The best TE outscores the best timeshare RB every year. The best RB outscores the best WR.
The “smart” strategy would have been to wait on TE and QB until after my missing 5th Round pick. I could have gotten Henry and Jones and a top-10 WR to go with them and then DK Metcalf as my second WR.
But it just doesn’t fit my idea of fantasy football. I want the players I want. I don’t enjoy “smart” picks. I enjoy picks that make my team feel like mine.
So while I intended to spam WR in the middle rounds, the RBs that landed there just felt better. JK Dobbins and Dameon Pierce versus Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There are legitimate arguments for any combination, but the one that made sense to me was: Dobbins plus Lamar gives me a massive share of the league’s best rushing attack. Thomas hasn’t played in two years, and he’s got all these little health issues popping up already. JuJu has some chronic knee condition where he has to get it drained every so often. Pierce just wants to run through a motherfucker’s face.
I wish I could say I did okay patching up my second WR, but I’m not even sure my first WR is all that good. DK Metcalf’s 17-game pace before the Russ injury: 1,300 yards and 17 TDs. During the Geno games: 935 yards and 17 TDs. Interesting on the surface, but TDs are fickle and yards are sticky; I’m in for a rough season.
AND I didn’t do enough patching that second spot. Christian Kirk was a desperate attempt to get a team’s top target, and DeAndre Hopkins was a desperate attempt to get a team’s top target six weeks from now. IT COULD WORK, but they were available that late for a reason. Kirk’s best fantasy finish ever was WR30. Hopkins was allegedly taking PEDs to accelerate his recovery from a torn MCL. Distilled: a past-his-prime WR determined his traditional path of recovery was not getting the results he expected, so he tried to improve the results by unauthorized means. The player was washed or on his way to washed, and he realized it. I don’t care super big about him possibly being washed. It’s Bugs Bunny. He can walk off that ledge into infinity until he looks down and realizes there’s nothing under him. Before the injury, he was only averaging 60 yards per game—other dudes in that range: Robert Woods, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, and DK Metcalf. Deep sigh, friends. Deep sigh.
So if Kirk’s not the Jags’ top target, or if being the Jags’ top target isn’t worth more than 60 yards per game… My other WRs are Toney and McKenzie, who I’m feeling worse about by the minute.
But here’s what saves me from last place: Lamar, Henry, and Pitts each finish #1 at his position. That’s possible, and if it happens, it’s playoffs. The rest of my team isn’t great, but there’s enough floor there not to squander huge games from my big three. It might not be nice to look at, but it’s as competitive as any lineup.
Who’s Behind You: Jesse Plemons
10. Roy
QB Patrick Mahomes
RB Austin Ekeler
WR DJ Moore
WR Darnell Mooney
TE Dalton Schultz
FX Leonard Fournette
FX Elijah Mitchell
K Dustin Hopkins
DL Danielle Hunter
LB Shaq Leonard
DB Xavier McKinney
DX Foye Oluokun
Bench: Damien Harris, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, Wan’Dale Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, Brian Robinson (injured)
Obviously, we’re looking at one of the favorites to be QB1, but what else are we looking at? As good as Ekeler can be, top RB isn’t in his range of outcomes. It took 18 TDs last year just to get him 100 points behind Jonathan Taylor. Ekeler was #2, though, and you got him this year at #3, so how much better could you realistically do? I can still shit on it. If Ekeler scores a normal amount of TDs, like 10, he’s finishing like 15th among non-QBs. You could have just brought back Ja’Marr Chase for that. That’s why you fail. (You don’t fail. Don’t be sad. I’m sorry. You just don’t get a good grade. Only Oliver failed. It’s gonna be okay.)
But so let’s look down the list now. DJ Moore could make up for Ekeler’s touchdown regression by finally scoring more than four in one season. Darnell Mooney should lead the Bears in targets again. Leonard Fournette is this year’s… you know, guy who don’t play so good. He’s the older, heavier RB who just kind of sputters out and gets replaced. But at least you have backup plans like Elijah Mitchell and Damien Harris, whose offenses offer RBs the league’s worst job security. Cool. Cool. But, hey, you only need one RB. Let’s see if your bench WRs are better flex options.
Oh. You, uh, like the Packers, huh? Okay, I’ll be fair. Allen Lazard is an extremely obvious candidate to breakout. But then why doesn’t anyone buy it? Why is Romeo Doubs getting so much camp hype? He doesn’t even look all that good in games. Wait a minute. Holy shit. Did the Packers do a good job sandbagging us on Allen Lazard? Is he so obviously awesome that they gave all the beat reporters gag orders? Dammit, if I drafted Kadarius Toney, Nuk Hopkins, and Christian Kirk ahead of Aaron Rodgers’ #1 WR, I’m never doing offseason research again. I’m just walking in blind and picking cool-sounding names with football-looking faces.
Dalton Schultz got 100 targets last year and should get more this year. He was last year’s TE3, 60 points behind TE2 and just 20 points ahead of TE10. What matters is you picked him one spot in front of TJ Watt. You picked him over Zeke, Sutton, Parsons, AJ Dillon, and Allen Robinson, each of whom could realistically finish 100 points ahead of Schultz, each of whom you had room for in your starting lineup.
But you drafted Shaq Leonard in the 7th. Rumors had him missing the first four game, but now it looks like he might just miss one game. If he hits, you redeem the Schultz pick… or you realize you could have had Leonard and Watt. Oof. Anyway, Oluokun was LB1 last year, so that’s a great DX. Danielle Hunter’s got some post-hype sleeper potential, especially with the Vikings’ defense finally getting out from under Mike Zimmer’s stale system. Xavier McKinney plays all over the defense. That versatility means a bunch of ways of scoring FP, which means potential to score 20 FP any given week.
Drafting Brian Robinson was classy, but it was also smart. He’s going to be IR-eligible soon, so he’s a free square that could return later this season and take back the starting job he’d pretty much sewn up in Washington.
Wan’Dale Robinson was drafted early in the 2nd Round of this year’s NFL Draft. He has been practicing and playing with the Giants’ starting offense this preseason. The team wants him to succeed. That means he’ll get the ball enough to be a thing for fantasy right away.
In general, the players you have in their roles right now can put together the 150-point weeks you need to compete. It’s cute, but I don’t see enough star power. This is the kind of team that finds themselves in playoff contention but needs a little deus ex machina to make them a championship contender.
Who’s Behind You: Domnhall Gleeson
9. Goingback2bck
QB Joe Burrow
RB Javonte Williams
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Jaylen Waddle
TE TJ Hockenson
FX Antonio Gibson
FX DeVonta Smith
K Dan Carlson
DL Nick Bosa
LB Fred Warner
DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
DX Cole Holcomb
Bench: Tyler Lockett, James Robinson, Jakobi Meyers, Pat Freiermuth, Tua Tagovailoa, Chuba Hubbard
Yeah, there’s no way you were getting a good draft grade this year. Even if you nailed it—you didn’t—the only reason you’re not last is that I don’t want to give your team the chip on its shoulder. I wanted to plant you middle-bottom, at a forgettable spot like ninth, where you just think, “yeah, I probably could have done a better job. Nine is low, but I didn’t deserve to be near the top for sure.” Yes, let the confidence slowly drain down and out.
While Joe Burrow is a QB1 candidate, it’s only because he could throw 50 TDs. He should, really. The Bengals finally have everything in place to take the training wheels off this offense, spread everything out, and let Burrow pick defenses apart. There’s no catch. The catch is that if they don’t do it this year, they’ll never do it. They have to find out this year whether this can be the league’s best offense. Why? Because three of their starting DBs become free agents after this year, and Joe Burrow is getting the mega-extension after this season regardless. Okay, the real catch is that Zac Taylor’s offense might not have training wheels to take off. It might be fully up to Burrow to make it happen, which allegedly is what happened at LSU anyway, so who knows. I’m all in, though. I’m a Bur-liever.
Javonte Williams is good. Cooper Kupp is good. Jaylen Waddle is getting those classic injuries that nag little speedy guys throughout their careers. TJ Hockenson has had trouble staying healthy. Antonio Gibson had to order a hit on Brian Robinson to keep his job. And then I don’t know what’s up with this second flex spot.
James Robinson should start for the Jags. I’m not saying he will or that’s what they’ve implied. I’m just saying he’s a starting RB and he plays for the Jags. Travis Etienne can split with him, but Etienne can’t be the full-time starter and Robinson is, like, spelling him. This needs to be a co-starter situation.
DeVonta Smith, Tyler Lockett, and Jakobi Meyers start for their teams, but to what effect? The Eagles’ WRs are fighting over 25 targets per game. Lockett is dealing with the whole Geno thing. Jakobi led the Patriots in targets, catches, and yards last year, but everyone else got the touchdowns, and the Patriots added a more prototypical #1 this offseason. If Jaylen Waddle doesn’t get his soft tissue toughened up, you might have to start one of those guys as your second WR.
I like the defense, though. Bosa’s one of three DLs with a chance to be #1. Warner and Holcomb are starting every week for someone; it might as well be you. And Minkah Fitzpatrick is going to have to clean up a lot of shit behind weak Steelers LBs again this year, after leading all DBs in tackles last year. And you got a real kicker in Dan Carlson, leg like a pendulum, kicking mostly in a dome for one of the league’s more promising offenses.
But with all that mess at WR and FX, those 45 points from the back-end of your lineup won’t win you any weeks. Not much hope with an offense full of #2s.
Who’s Behind You: the shit demon from Dogma
8. Squanch This
QB Tom Brady
RB Jonathan Taylor
WR Some Trash Asshole
WR Amari Cooper
TE Darren Waller
FX Breece Hall
FX Adam Thielen
K Younghoe Koo
DL Trey Hendrickson
LB Roquan Smith
DB Budda Baker
DX Eric Kendricks
Bench: Some Trash Asshole (RB edition), Gabe Davis, Rondale Moore, Nyheim Hines, Derek Carr, David Njoku
I want to hate on this roster because for the most part, I don’t like these players, and I don’t like their faces.
I love Jonathan Taylor. I’m not super into Breece Hall. Hall is good, maybe great, but the Jets are bad, maybe the worst offense in the league, and they appear ready to timeshare it between Hall and Carter. Middling volume in a bad offense gives you garbage. And if you can’t flex Breece Hall, you’re starting two Browns every week.
Unless Gabe Davis breaks out. His last game was 200 yards and 4 TDs against the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Bills’ offense does the basketball team thing: they have five skill players in defined roles who are versatile enough to blend on occasion. Last offseason, they signed Emmanuel Sanders to be their deep threat. He was playing way more snaps than Gabe Davis before getting hurt. Davis became that full-time deep threat for the rest of the year and the playoffs. This offseason, the Bills’ offensive additions did not include that deep threat archetype. It feeeels like the breakout is happening.
Max made really smart IDP picks. Roquan in the 7th, Budda in the 9th, Kendricks in the 13th, Hendrickson in the 16th. You didn’t reach, you got supreme talent, and the one questionable pick was dirt cheap and the position with the most meat on the bone in free agency.
You’ve got some dirtbags on your team, and I want to see those players fail, and so I hope they choke on nails. If that makes you miss the playoffs, then… *shrugs*
Who’s Behind You: Chris Brown
7. You’re Doing It Wrong
QB Kyler Murray
RB Joe Mixon
WR Stefon Diggs
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE George Kittle
FX Jerry Jeudy
FX Tyler Boyd
K Matt Prater
DL Aaron Donald
LB Devin White
DB Trevon Diggs
DX DeVondre Campbell
Bench: Dak Prescott, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Alex Pierce, Evan Engram, Isaiah Spiller
Ranking Shelby’s team was difficult because it pulls me in different directions. She has a potentially elite QB, but I’ve never believed in him for fantasy, not for a full season. But that’s why you have Dak, who is Kirk Cousins but we like him more.
Joe Mixon is a potential #1 RB, and Stefon Diggs could be the #1 WR. No complaints.
Shelby has nothing behind Mixon. Technically Isaiah Spiller is on her roster, but he probably won’t play this season. He appears to be behind Ekeler and Michel and maybe even Joshua Kelley on the depth chart. I don’t understand the Spiller pick except that he’s a rookie, but I do understand Shelby’s plan on offense. Mixon starts at RB, Diggs at WR1, and then you’ve got a lot of strong options competing for three other lineup spots:
Jeudy, JuJu, Burks, and Dotson are the second targets in their offenses. JuJu and Dotson should see significant volume in their roles. Either Jeudy or Burks could be target leaders in their uncertain situations. Each of them and Alec Pierce has the attributes to be X-receiver and top target for a team if injuries hit the guys above them.
Tyler Boyd isn’t that, but he’s someone I feel safe starting while waiting to see what reality looks like for these other dudes.
Shelby only has one RB, but RBs materialize in free agency every year. She has a stockpile of potential excellence at the most difficult position to fill in free agency. (You could argue TE is tough, but there are 15 starting TEs in free agency every week. There are 70 WRs on rosters right now, and that number only goes as low as 60 on a weekly basis.)
The defense is a chef’s kiss: you got threats to lead each position without sacrificing much to get them. White and Donald are two of maybe ten IDPs with trade value. Trevon Diggs did his damage by getting an unsustainable amount of INTs, but QBs throw his way. At worst, that gets you tackles, and at best it gets you FFs, PDs, INTs, and TDs. And putting the Diggs brothers together feels good!
Who’s Behind You: The Whole Wayans Family
6. Scary Terry… Bitch
QB Justin Herbert
RB Alvin Kamara
WR Justin Jefferson
WR Terry McLaurin
TE Dawson Knox
FX AJ Dillon
FX Chris Olave
K Justin Tucker
DL Joey Bosa
LB Micah Parsons
DB Sauce Gardner
DX Maxx Crosby
Bench: Drake London, Jalen Tolbert, Zamir White, Mark Ingram, Trey McBride, Ken Walker (injured)
Don’t worry. I counted the rookies. Seven. Coleman has 18 players, and seven are rookies. But he’s only starting two of them, so…
There’s obviously work to be done here. Things look good up top. You couldn’t ask for a better four than Herbs, Kamara, Jefferson, and Terry. When you only see the top part of Coleman’s lineup, your like, so that’s the best team in your league, yeah? The important areas are covered. Coleman and I share that we like not having to worry about certain positions. QB, K, an IDP or two… I like not having to worry about TE (obviously).
I feel like a 12th Round TE should make you worry, but Dawson Knox kind of has everything going for him. He’s fast, he’s strong, he plays for the Bills. Last year was his first as a full-time starter, and he finished as TE9.
So you’re probably secure there, and if not, the cost was meh. You’re secure with Justin Tucker, best kicker ever. You’re probably good with Parsons, one of the fabled three DLs capable of Watt numbers. Even Maxx Crosby has a little Watt to him. A new defense and a more imposing pass rusher opposite him might unlock him. Joey Bosa doesn’t do it for me. He maxed out at 150 points five years ago. But maybe playing opposite Khalil Mack unlocks him. I’m open to it.
Now the other stuff. You have one legitimate flex option in AJ Dillon, who could usurp Aaron Jones in fantasy points this year. Behind him, you have Olave, London, and Tolbert, who are exciting options, but these rookie receivers tend to take a few weeks to get going. So is the plan just to try one of the rookies anyway? Is it clear that I have no reason to take Coleman down but need to justify how he’s finishing 6th somehow?
Who’s Behind You: Timothee Chalamet
5. So long Cooper Kupp :(
QB Russell Wilson
RB Josh Jacobs
WR Ja’Marr Chase
WR Davante Adams
TE Zach Ertz
FX Deebo Samuel
FX Travis Etienne
K Evan McPherson
DL Myles Garrett
LB Jordyn Brooks
DB Kyle Hamilton
DX Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah
Bench: Tony Pollard, Chase Claypool, Melvin Gordon, Albert Okwuegbunam, Russell Gage, KJ Hamler
There was a time when I had Cameron ranked third. I looked at these names, and I said damn, those are some good football players in good situations, and this son of a bitch just played the value game and let this draft come to him. He schooled us, I thought. But as I started to think about what I was going to say about it, I found some pretty significant flaws.
The big three of Chase, Adams, and Deebo could have all been drafted before Cameron’s second pick. But they have their warts. Chase and Deebo benefitted from unsustainable efficiency, and they don’t project to add enough volume to balance that out. Davante Adams is downgrading in a lot of ways for fantasy: he’s changing teams relatively late in his career, his new offense has more target-competition, his new QB is way worse than Aaron Rodgers, and his new head coach is the worst he’s had since entering the league. The Raiders are a dark horse for worst team in the league. The defense has maybe five good players, and the offensive line totally sucks.
So Josh Jacobs is probably not as much of a value as I originally thought, not even in the 5th Round, especially when the plan to is start both him and Adams every week. Etienne might be 1B to James Robinson. Zach Ertz is 50 years old. Why is this team ranked so high? What the hell kind of operation am I running here? Russell Wilson. Broncos Country, let’s ride? Just look at the QBs on the teams mentioned before this: Herbert, Murray, Brady, Burrow, Mahomes, Lamar. I really saw the Chase-Adams-Deebo trio and went hard and fast.
But it feels true to say that a team built around three stud WRs feels more sustainable than one built on the hero RB or the QB. There’s potential for massive volume for Cameron’s starters. Zach Ertz has a small chance of leading the Cardinals in targets these first six weeks. Russ could finally cook. Jacobs could stay healthy all year and hit 300 touches. Etienne’s chemistry with Trevor could relegate James Robinson to third wheel. Cameron’s bench has two of the more utilized timeshare RBs, each likely to get 200 touches.
It's pretty gross that Cameron has this much invested in the Raiders and Broncos’ offenses. Their offseason moves were the NFL equivalent of Magikarp’s Splash. Like, you know it does nothing. Why even put it in the game? Well, we know why Denver did it: to sell the fucking team to a bunch of idiots. But the Raiders? The idiots already own the team.
And Cameron’s in on both. And I’m ranking him in the top five. Awesome. This note is going great.
Myles Garrett and Jordyn Brooks are high-caliber IDPs. I don’t want to neglect them. If Cameron is right about Kyle Hamilton, he gets nice bragging rights over me, as I though Chuck Clark would start over him for the first half of the year. JOK is a smaller, quicker LB who got pushed around too much last year to factor in fantasy most weeks.
Russell Gage and Chase Claypool also made the team, another couple of talented players in the wrong situations.
Who’s Behind You: Channing Tatum
4. Fart69
QB Jameis Winston
RB D’Andre Swift
WR CeeDee Lamb
WR Michael Pittman
TE Cole Kmet
FX Cam Akers
FX Diontae Johnson
K GAYYYYY
DL Brian Burns
LB Bobby Wagner
DB Derwin James
DX Logan Wilson
Bench: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isaiah Simmons, Alexander Mattison, Jarvis Landry, Matthew Stafford, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Let’s be honest. All of our teams are bad in one way. Brian’s managed to concentrate the bad into his TE spot, a yearly tradition at this point. If you’re going to be the last to take one position, TE’s the way to go. Cole Kmet isn’t even that bad.
Brian does have a real problem, though, which is that based on the way he’s constructed this team, they all need to be better than they’ve ever been in order for this to work. The upshot is that he picked ascending players, probably on purpose.
Akers, Swift, CEH, Lamb, Pittman, and Kmet were drafted in the first two rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft. Either Brian is a firm believer in the Year 3 breakout, or he just really happens to like that draft. (The latter is possible: Brian’s top RBs last season were fellow 2020 draftees Taylor and Gibson.) Diontae Johnson is entering his fourth year, so he’s clearly past his prime and Brian should probably just trade him to me.
Alexander Mattison: someone had to draft him. It’s a pretty sick little pocket of fantasy life, this guy whose only success has come from five one-week injuries to Dalvin Cook, spaced out in such a way if you didn’t also have Cook, you probably only had Mattison for one of those games. It does seem kind of nice to have a bench spot reserved for a guy who mostly doesn’t play, who you don’t have to factor in the big equation each week, but there are three weeks where he’s in the lineup, no questions asked. Amazing.
Best group of IDPs in the draft, but that’s hopefully a given when you spend four picks between Rounds 6 and 11. Brian’s 18th Round pick, Logan Wilson, is probably a better starter than Brian’s 8th Round pick, Isaiah Simmons.
Brian’s season will be defined by whether or not he keeps his promise to start Jameis Winston every week except his bye. I mean, it should be easy if you like scoring a bunch of TDs and winning a bunch of games. The hard part will be when you have to decide who to keep between him and Michael Pittman.
Who’s Behind You: Jobu Tupaki
3. C’mon Football
QB Trey Lance
RB Najee Harris
WR Mike Evans
WR Tee Higgins
TE Dallas Goedert
FX Aaron Jones
FX David Montgomery
K (empty)
DL Chandler Jones
LB Matt Milano
DB Jeremy Chinn
DX Zach Cunningham
Bench: Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore, James Cook, Garrett Wilson, Robert Woods, Michael Carter, Darrell Henderson
IR: Michael Gallup
Spencer had 19 draft picks, so the Michael Gallup pick was perfect. Going cheap at positions where you need starters was short-sighted. You already had to cut your 16th pick to fill your DX, and you’re going to have to cut an even higher pick to get a kicker. Do you need a kicker Week 1? Maybe. It depends how the melee math actually works. Are you better off having to beat the worst six teams in a given week or potentially having to beat one of the top five, the top one? Probability says you need more chances to score when you’re facing more opponents. As uncertainty wanes, the more use you make of a slight edge. But kickers don’t always score points, and they often lose points. It’s the most logical spot to leave empty. But it’s more logical to fill it.
Should we just attack this in order of who you should cut?
Garrett Wilson was the 10th overall pick, second WR, going to a team projected for above-average passing volume where he’s already the second best WR. He’s my favorite option to “cut” because he has trade value, so you might be able to upgrade an IDP spot, cut Zach Cunningham, and use the extra spot to get your kicker.
Michael Carter is supposedly the starting RB for the Jets, but we know how it goes with RBs who don’t have great size or speed. He’s a quality pass-catching back, but that’s not valuable in our league. If you’re not using him for the few weeks he’s (nominally) starting for the Jets, then he’s just a handcuff. He’s the top candidate to drop outright.
Darrell Henderson has made noise starting for the Rams in the past, but Cam Akers is supposedly ready to roll Week 1. Henderson is either a timeshare 1B or a handcuff. He’s droppable, but he gets the edge over Carter for at least being in a good offense.
Robert Woods is the Titans’ top target going into Week 1, but he’s 30, coming off an ACL tear, and he was never particularly fast or quick before tearing it. Obviously it’s bad finance to cut him outright, but his ceiling is low, and with at least three WRs and at least three RBs ahead of him, the only scenario where he makes your starting lineup is one where your season is in shambles anyway.
That starting lineup is pretty flawless, which is why I don’t have much to say about them. Your discount IDPs will probably work themselves out eventually. In a TD-only league, you’d probably rank #1. You’d also take the top spot in a contest for lankiest bunch of goofs.
Who’s Behind You: Jason Segel
2. Tiny Rick
QB Josh Allen
RB Nick Chubb
WR AJ Brown
WR Chris Godwin
TE Hunter Henry
FX Ezekiel Elliot
FX Miles Sanders
K Nick Folk
DL Khalil Mack
LB Lavonte David
DB Antoine Winfield
DX Aidan Hutchinson
Bench: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hunter Renfrow, George Pickens, Rachaad White, DJ Chark, DeVante Parker
Evan’s team makes me crazy. When you take a QB with the fifth overall pick, you’re not supposed to be able to get one of the best RBs in the 2nd Round. You definitely shouldn’t have a shot at Tom Brady’s top target in the 4th Round. And I know Zeke has been through a lot, but the 5th Round? He was 16th in total yards last year, 10th in TDs, and Evan drafted him 46th among flex players. But we’re generous. You want a starting RB in the 9th. Here, have the best RB on the team that led the league in rushing last year. We’re a Bucs league, but would you be interested in the starting LB who scores 10 FP per game? Have him in the 11th. Don’t mention. Or do. We’re doormats, and we’ll give him to you again. I guess on the bright side, Evan got so many useful flex options at value that he won’t have use for DJ Chark and DeVante Parker. So for people like me desperate for a #1 WR, I’ll have more options to compare to AJ Green and Marvin Jones.
I’m hoping Evan made mistakes with picks like Amon-Ra and Renfrow, who are good football players but not the type that usually make good fantasy players. But it really doesn’t matter until he has to bring them off the bench, which might take a while since George Pickens is better than both of them.
What hope do we have, really? Hunter Henry stops getting open in the end zone, Aidan Hutchinson gets double-teamed since he’s already the Lions best trench player, Khalil Mack gets no points because all he does is scare opposing players right into the arms of Joey Bosa, and Nick Folk scores a fat zero and some other kicker scores a fat zero each week and somehow it’s always the kicker Evan tried out that week. I don’t know man. Feels pretty obvious that Evan is about to wreck our shit without even trying.
Who’s Behind You: Robert Downey, Jr.
1. In-N-Out 20 Min. Adventure
QB Jalen Hurts
RB Dalvin Cook
WR Mike Williams
WR Courtland Sutton
TE Mark Andrews
FX James Conner
FX CryptoHenry
K Tyler Bass
DL Cam Jordan
LB Kyzir White
DB Jessie Bates
DX Bobby Okereke
Bench: Brandin Cooks, Chase Edmonds, Rashod Bateman, Devin Singletary, Rashaad Penny, Julio Jones.
Honestly it makes no sense that Jalen Hurts is starting for the best team, but I really believe Sean has the best team on paper. He has the #1 RB for six different teams, only two of which (Singletary and Penny) are in real danger of being swallowed up by a committee. Sutton is Russ’s #1 WR, Mike Williams is Herbert’s 1B, Cooks and Bateman are the #1s for their teams, and if you don’t believe in Bateman fine, because Sean has Lamar’s actual top target Mark Andrews. Bateman is Sean’s third best bench option right now. Bateman is immaterial. What is material: Julio Jones. He’s old, sure, but he still runs fast, jumps high, and catches balls most people can’t. Even if he’s just doing what Gronk did as a receiver last year, catching seam balls and goal line touchdowns, that was 12 FP per game from a guy who couldn’t run fast or jump high. Julio Jones could be back. Remember, this “older” Julio we’ve seen has been playing with Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill. This is Tom Brady. He recruited Julio because he has plans for him.
And on defense, Sean isn’t great, but he’s done what he needs to: sack-and-TFL DL, tackle-monster LBs and a playmaker DB. He had to drop KJ Osborn to fill that DL spot, but KJ was buried behind a lot of good players. Kind of a bummer to lose a quality prospect in KJ, but you’ve already got Dalvin. How much of that Kirk Cousins offense do you need?
The less I say about the top-ranked team is probably for the better.
Who’s Behind You: Matthew McConaughey
Week 1 Predictions
Top six teams win, bottom six lose. Love me a melee week.
