Top Tier (2272)
Cameron (122-250)
Next Level (1954 – 1993)
Oliver (110-206)
Brian (117-186)
Doak (115-182)
Sean (103-233)
Decent (1835 – 87)
Kennedy (91-202)
Spencer (96-197)
Coleman (109-187)
Corey (79-183)
Basic-Ass (1738 – 55)
Evan (87-178)
Shelby (102-179)
Trash-Ass (1626)
Max (96-144)
Since he joined in Week 7, Max—without getting into the decimals—has scored 858, good for 122 per game. In the same span, Shelby has scored 850 points. Kyler Murray played three of those seven games, scoring 27, 10, and 33.
Cameron – 250 (Week 6); W
Sean – 233 (Week 5); W
Oliver – 206 (Week 5); L
Kennedy 202 (Week 7); W
Spencer – 197 (Week 10); W
Coleman – 187 (Week 4); W
Brian – 186 (Week 6); W
Corey – 183 (Week 1); W
Doak – 182 (Week 13); W
Shelby – 179 (Week 1); W
Evan – 178 (Week 11); W
Tim – 172 (Week 3); W
Max – 144 (Week 12); W
Tim – 75 (Wk1)
Corey – 79 (Wk2)
Evan – 87 (Wk6)
Kennedy – 91 (Wk9)
Max – 96 (Wk10)
Spe – 96 (Wk9)
Shelby – 102 (Wk3)
Sean – 103 (Wk7)
Coleman – 109 (Wk8)
Oliver – 110 (Wk4)
Doak – 115 (Wk2)
Brian – 117 (Wk2)
Cameron – 122 (Wk11)
All Ls.
Max’s worst week was Spe’s best, but it was Spe’s only win. In Tim’s best week, he beat me by 0.1 FP. Cameron’s worst week was a loss against Oliver, marking the difference between the top two seeds.
3 – Evan
2 – Corey
1 – Kennedy, Max, Spe, Tim
0 – Bri, Cam, Col, Doa, Oli, Sea, She
Meow
Evan – 788 (137-178); 157 per
Doak – 759 (125-182); 152 per
Feisty
Cameron – 744 (122-185); 149 per
Oliver – 736 (131-168); 147 per
Brian – 732 (129-165); 146 per
Sean – 726 (103-169); 145 per
Interesting: the top four occupy their own tier, sorted by likelihood to win it all.
Meh
Coleman – 673 (112-153); 134 per
Spencer – 673 (96-197); 134 per
Max – 646 (96-144); 129 per
Kennedy – 645 (91-153); 129 per
Corey – 644 (88-151); 129 per
Woof
Shelby – 562 (102-127); 112 per
And yet Shelby is probably going to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
I like this metric a lot because it aligns with how I perceive the relative power structure of the league, maybe not with Shelby at the bottom but definitely with Evan and me battling it out for Mortydome supremacy.
Whether you look at season-long scoring or just the past five weeks, there are five clear leaders and a little bit of a hodge-podge behind that. Oliver is our most consistent producer; Evan our most volatile. Tim/Max has been consistently bad, but what do you expect from a team that didn’t draft a starting RB (even if it did end up with a top-10 RB in James Conner). Coleman, Corey, and Shelby have dealt with the most injury BS. Shelby has had it the worst with Kyler, Edmonds, Carson and Julio each missing at least a month, with AJ Brown up and down. Even this week, TJ Watt starts the game, scores one point, and misses the rest of the game with a groin injury.
I don’t really have the energy to dig deep into fantasy theory, but I did want to devote some part of some note this year to how my thinking has changed this year. It changes a little every year, right, and this year the difference (maybe evidenced in the notes) is I didn’t pay very much attention to other people’s rosters this year, in this league or my other league. Usually I’m all up in other people’s shit comparing my roster construction to theirs. I definitely knew who was on each team, or at least like 90% depending on the day of the week. I had a general sketch of what I was up against, but I didn’t cloud my roster decisions with comparisons to what other people were doing. Even when setting my lineup, I didn’t think about whether there was conflict between my lineup and my opponent’s (or between my lineup and lineups in my other league’s matchup, which is something I’ve cared about in the past). I just tried to play my best players and hope that everyone scored a bunch of points. My players, your players, whoever. Let everyone score a shit-ton of points and just hope my team scores more. The mindset is working out so far. That’s all it is, is a mindset. I’m not suggesting it affects any outcomes or makes me better at managing my team or anything. I’m just reflecting.
Something I can dig a little deeper into is the idea of “fitting the gaps” as a concept that makes real football and fantasy football function. In real football, fitting the gaps is a term related to run defense. The offense has a certain number of blockers moving to certain spots, and the defense’s only hope to win the down is to fit the gaps, meaning get bodies moving into the space between blockers before the opposing runningback gets there.
In fantasy, “fitting the gaps” means finding the holes in your roster and dedicating extra bodies to filling those holes. I want to use words other than “filling those holes,” but I also want to move through this point since I’m just not sure how nuanced it is anyway. But so this season, I didn’t have all my picks. I spent my keepers and my first four picks on offense, including spending my third pick on a rookie RB, mostly thinking he’d be the top keeper next season. I didn’t have a fifth or sixth. I spent picks seven and eight on defense. I spent pick nine on a QB. I spent picks 10 and 11 on keeper candidates. By the end of the draft, I had two starting WRs, one starting RB, and a bunch of flyers to fill those flex spots. In Week 1, those two starting flex spots scored 7.5 combined.
Note: the major holes in this theory are that I hit on QB late, got the #2 TE in Round 4, and eventually scored the game’s only true RB/WR who just happens to be top-10 on both lists, and I scored him in free agency.
So I guess without getting into the weeds, I should just stop and say that fantasy football comes down to whether your picks hit. BUT I did genuinely start the season without legitimate flex options, and seeing that I had two solid WRs (and whatever Patterson was early on) I specifically hammered RB every chance I got. Since about Week 3, I’ve spent every extra roster spot on RB. If you look at my roster now, you’ll see I have five or six legitimate flex options. Now, again, the caveat is that flex is pretty much all I needed since I hit on my other picks. Mark Andrews didn’t have to pan out. Matt Stafford definitely didn’t have to pan out. Derwin James and Jalen Ramsey weren’t clearly going to be the best DB tandem in Mortydome history. But where there were gaps, I focused on fitting them.
But whatever. The real point is that I’ve focused so much on my own success that I really haven’t been paying the usual amount of attention to the rest of the league. I do want to get more balanced going forward so that the note has a little more juice than just “here’s what’s going on in my world.” I want a more communal perspective. I also want to win another championship since I’ve gotten lucky enough to be in contention again, something that’s never promised even to a good fantasy player.
Because another thing I realize is that this is the second year in a row I’ve scored a top-10 RB in free agency early in the year and ridden them to the playoffs. James Robinson was the only reason I didn’t flop last year, and this year Cordarrelle Patterson has been my best player, putting in double-digit points literally every week. Kind of like how Cameron’s team needs a beast RB to be a contender. Without consistent 30s and 40s from Henry and Lenny, where would Cam’s team be? Henry’s departure and Kupp’s regression have left Cameron an average team, assuming Mahomes doesn’t drop a random 50 again.
I don’t know where to go from here. I don’t want to make predictions since I’m deathly afraid that whatever I predict in my own matchup will either come true or become a jinx. So I’m not doing that.
I will put on the record that if we did a H2H tiebreaker, I would have gotten that 4-seed this year.
OH. How about some keeper candidates? I’ll go through each team and see which keeper options they already have and then give a shortlist of some quality free agents to think about holding over the summer. Keep in mind the guys picked up now usually require an injury to someone else in order to become legitimate options. A keeper generally has to be someone you’ll start every week. Keeping a flex guy usually goes poorly.
Oliver
EK: Brady, Mixon, Diontae, Cooper, Cooks, Pittman
LK: Gainwell, Henderson, Judon
Mixon is the obvious choice of early keeper. Henderson isn’t much of an option if Akers comes back, but he’s not nothing.
Cameron
EK: Fournette, M.Gordon, Kupp, AB, Thielen, N. Bosa, Roquan
LK: Hubbard, Gallup, Winfield, Moore
Kupp was the obvious choice, but now that Lenny is the prince that was promised, I don’t know anymore. Who even knows what team he’ll play for next year. With the cap going way up, he might just stay in Tampa. I would probably keep Kupp, but I really don’t know. Those later keeper options are barf, though Gallup is in the final year of his deal so could become a full-time starter somewhere else next season. Worth hanging onto for now. Cameron could do worse that Winfield or Moore as a keeper.
Sean
EK: DMG, Claypool, Jeudy, Hockeson, Donald, Wagner
LK: Mike Williams, Tim Patrick, Mattison, T. Diggs?
Right now, I’d guess DMG and Mike Williams, which is honestly the best pair yet.
Fart69
EK: Dak, Gibson, Godwin
LK: Julio, Toney, Freiermuth, Schultz, Reddick
God-tier early keeper, and maybe a great late keeper depending on who the Giants hire to get the offense to work next season.
Doak
EK: Stafford, Javonte, OBJ, Andrews, Tucker, Derwin
LK: Fields, Patterson, Dillon, Michel, Robinson, Bosa, Ramsey
Not gonna be an easy decision. It’s nice having a bunch of keeper options until it’s time to pick one. Then it’s just mitigating regret.
Kennedy
EK: Burrow, Swift, D. Harris, J. Chase, Higgins, Kendricks
LK: Elijah Mitchell
Technically there are other late options, but Mitchell is the one.
Coleman
EK: Russ, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Waddle, Goedert, Barrett, Warner
LK: Bateman, Burns, Poyer, Minkah
The WR cycle continues.
Corey
EK: Gaskin, Pitts, Gronk, Garrett
LK: Jameis, Ingram (jokes), Mooney, Parker
Garrett and Pitts are equally interesting having similar scoring upsides in relatively similar positions where having the dude is a significant edge. Can’t go wrong with either. Mooney is the obvious late pick right now.
Evan
EK: Herbie, Sanders, Jefferson, DeVonta, Gesicki, Lavonte
LK: Golladay, Knox, Hendrickson, Parsons
Evan picked up Cam Akers, but that doesn’t matter unless Akers plays by Week 17. Right now, the money keepers seem to be Jefferson and (ugh) Parsons.
Shelby
EK: Edmonds, Carson, Deebo, Fant, Watt, I. Simmons
LK: Lawrence, Hollywood, Oluokun
Considering how the season has gone, this is a great list. Reloading young studs Deebo and Hollywood would be pretty intimidating.
Max
EK: Rodgers, Hunt, Conner, Boyd
LK: Tannehill, Pollard, Buckner, Deion
Again, surprisingly good options. Pollard is becoming a 1B back that gets double-digit points especially with those sweet KR yards. Rodgers is an asshole but a perennial MVP candidate.
Spencer
EK: Robinson, Sutton, White
LK: Hurts, Taysom, Carter, Stevenson, E. Moore, Kirk
My prediction: White and Carter/Moore. It’s not sexy, but it’s two starters. As long as it’s two starters, we’re good.
QB
Trey Lance
Carson Wentz
Tua?
RB
Nyheim Hines
Ronald Jones?
Zack Moss?
WR
Leviska Shenault
Rondale Moore
Kendrick Bourne
TE
Tyler Higbee
Cole Kmet
Hunter Henry
Evan Engram
DL
Josh Allen
Bradley Chubb
Jaelan Phillips
LB
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
DB
Budda Baker
And that’s it for this week. I hope the playoff structure makes sense to everyone and there aren’t any surprises. Here’s an picture of the 2021 Mortydome Playoffs so far. Let me know if you have any questions. And, like, get better teams, if that’s something you need.
