This note is brought to you be the fluish side effects of the Pfizer COVID Booster, administered yesterday afternoon.
Here’s how the playoffs work:
(Disclaimer: this is the only year we’re doing this, so we’re going all out, and it’s non-negotiable unless I made a logistical error.)
Everybody makes the playoffs.
The top four in the standings get a bye.
The rest get seeded 4-12.
After each playoff round, teams are reseeded by total postseason points. Ensuing matchups are always lowest seed versus highest seed, within your bracket.
Your final finish determines what order you’ll choose your first pick for 2022.
The “#1 Pick” gets their choice of first-rounder—except Pick 12, which, per Sean’s champ rule, goes to the champ.
Teams 1-4 bye.
Teams 5-12 play to advance to the Mortydome Quarterfinal.
Losers become First Choice Melee.
MDQ: Teams 1-8 play to advance to the Mortydome Semifinal.
Losers advance to Second Choice Melee.
FCM: Teams 9-12 play to advance to First Choice Duel.
Losers advance to Dead Last Duel.
MDS: Teams 1-4 play to advance to the Mortydome Final.
Losers join the Slush Pile.
SCM: Teams 4-8 play to advance to Second Choice Duel.
Losers join in the Slush Pile.
FCD: Showdown for the first choice of pick.
Loser joins the Slush Pile.
DLD: Winner joins the Slush Pile.
Loser gets last choice of pick.
MDF: Showdown for the “championship trophy”
Winner gets 12th pick, per Sean’s champ rule.
Loser’s score gets factored into the Slush Pile.
SCD: Showdown for 2nd choice of pick.
Loser’s score gets factored into the Slush Pile.
SLUSH: Melee for 3rd – 10th choices of pick.
A reminder of the standings:
First Round Byes Guaranteed
1. (11-1) Oliver, 1825 points
2. (10-2) Cameron, 2140 points
3. (9-3) Sean, 1753 points
Rat King for the Four-Seed
4. (7-5) Corey, 1747 (61 PB)
5. (7-5) Coleman, 1728 (80 PB)
6. (6-6) Fart69, 1808 (0 PB)
7. (6-6) Doak, 1772 (36 PB)
8. (6-6) Kennedy, 1733 (75 PB)
*PB = Points Behind Brian (high is bad)
Shelby
9. (4-8), 58-point lead on Evan
Suckas
10. (3-9) Evan, 63-point lead on Max
11. (2-10) Max
12. (1-11) Spe, 180-point lead on Max
Scenarios in order of likelihood. Whoever I mention first on each line, that’s their scenario for that pick.
12 – Spe, Max
Spe loses
Max loses AND Spe wins
11 – Max, Spe, Evan
Max loses AND Spe loses
Max wins AND Evan wins
Spe wins AND Max loses
Evan loses AND Max wins
10 – Evan, Max
Evan wins
Evan wins and Max loses
Max wins and Evan loses
9/ – Shelby, Evan*
*he wins, she loses, he outscores her by 58 points.
*Corey (CW), Coleman (CC), Brian (B), Doak (D), Kennedy (K)
4-seed
Corey’s point-diffs: +13 to K, +18 to C, -26 to D, -61 to B
Corey wins and Coleman loses.
Corey AND CC win, and CW maintains points adv. on CC.
Corey loses, other four lose, and CW maintains points adv. on CC.
Corey AND CC lose; at least one of B/D/K wins; CW earns points adv.
Coleman’s point-diffs: -5 to K, - 18 to CW, -44 to D, -80 to B
Coleman wins and CW loses.
Coleman wins, CW wins, and CC overcomes points.
Coleman AND CW lose, and CC overcomes points.
Coleman AND CW lose; at least one of B/D/K wins; CC earns points adv.
Brian’s point-diffs: +80 to CC, +75 to K, +61 to CW, +36 to D
Brian wins, other four lose, Brian maintains points over CW AND CC
Brian wins, CW AND CC lose, D/K win but Brian maintains points.
Doak’s point-diffs: -36 to B, +26 to C, +39 to K, +44 to CC
Doak wins, CW and CC lose, D earns points adv.
Kennedy’s point-diffs: +5 to CC, -13 to CW, -39 to D, -75 to B
Kennedy wins, CW and CC lose, K earns points adv.
5-seed
Corey wins, CC wins AND CC earns points adv.
Corey loses, CC wins, other three lose
Corey loses, CC wins, Corey earns points adv. over other winners.
Corey loses, CC loses, and the ground opens up and swallows the sun.
Coleman wins AND CW wins AND CW maintains point adv.
Coleman loses, CW wins, other three lose
Coleman loses, CW wins, CC earns points over other winners.
Put simply, if the 5-seed goes to an 8-5 team, it will be Corey or Coleman.
Put simply, if the 5-seed goes to a 7-6 team, it will be whichever rat is closest to freeing its tail from the knot (i.e., has the most points).
Totally-not-fabricated percentages for the 5-seed:
Corey: 28%
Coleman: 24%
Brian: 21%
Doak: 19%
Kennedy: 8% (sorry, K)
Does it even add up to 100? Do we give a shit?
TNF™ percentages for the 6-seed:
Brian: 37%
Coleman: 24%
Doak: 19%
Corey: 15%
Kennedy: 5% (yikes)
TNF™ percentages for the 7-seed:
Coleman: 25%
Kennedy: 25%
Doak: 19%
Corey: 18%
Brian: 17%
TNF™ percentages for the 8-seed:
Kennedy: 55%
Doak: 19%
Brian: 11%
Coleman: 9%
Corey: 6%
Sean can tie Cameron’s record, but he can’t overcome his -387 point-differential, which is especially insane when you consider that Sean scored 233 points in one week (granted, it was the week before Cameron scored 250).
Oliver keeps the 1-seed with a win or a Cam loss. Cam only earns the 1 if he wins and Oliver loses. Oliver also cannot overcome the points (-315; and Oliver is 2nd in points).
It’s shaping up to be a stupid postseason. My hope is that the champ is a first-time champ, unless it’s me.
I would also like to see just one trade before this season ends.
It’s hard to make melee predictions without first making NFL predictions. So here are some flu-inspired game previews.
The Saints’ defense has been pretty good. They have a powerful front-four capable of fitting run gaps and penetrating pass-pro. They have Davis and Alexander, arguably the best pass-coverage duo at LB. They have Lattimore shutting down one side, Adebo holding his own on the other, and three quality safeties, one of which always occupies the slot with high-end physicality. They have the talent and coaching to have a decent day against an elite offense.
The problem for the Saints is that they are rolling into this game with backups starting at LT, LG, RT, QB, RB, WR, and TE. This is going to be the Taysom Hill experience, and Hill is playing with plantar fasciitis. His best weapons are Mark Ingram, Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway, and Tre’Quan Smith. It is legitimately the worst skill group in the league right now.
The Saints can fit the run and limit explosives. They likely will keep the game in hand in the first quarter. But if the offense stalls, if it doesn’t eat up time or score touchdowns, Dallas will take over this game by halftime and put together long drives in the second half to put the Saints away little by little until it’s so out of hand that Taysom has to throw (or they bring Trevor back in to throw) and it’s interception city.
For fantasy, this means big points for Zeke and Pollard, eventually. Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup are all playing, which means Dak’s score will be fine. We should see at least 400 yards of total offense, with at least 125 on the ground. I’d guess Lamb leads in yards, Cooper has the edge for TDs, but Gallup feels like the most likely to have a 50-yard TD if there is one. Dalton Schultz doesn’t seem likely to get the best of Demario Davis or Malcolm Jenkins, but he could bully Kwon or CGGJ, so he’ll get 40-60 yards and maybe a TD depending on how they matchup.
The Saints’ offense should be pretty bad. The Dallas defense is mediocre, so if the Saints are patient and deliberate and consistent, they could find the Cowboys in a couple bad looks and capitalize. The best version of this game for the Saints still has them trailing by a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
The best version of this game for Dallas is something like 40-10, with over 100 yards rushing in the second half alone.
The only place you can capitalize in free agency off this game would be to add either a Cowboys’ pass rusher or the Saints’ DB likeliest to lead in tackles. I would take shots on either Demarcus Lawrence (fresh off IR) or Malcolm Jenkins (Saints at home in the dome).
In terms of Mortydome, the teams capitalizing off this matchup are Brian (Dak/Schultz), Spe (Zeke), Max (Pollard), and Kennedy (Demario). I like the Boys’ receivers (Oliver and Cam have them), but I don’t love them. And that sweet Trevon Diggs lightning could strike again for Sean at any time.
Ew. Jonathan Taylor rushes for 200 yards. Wentz doesn’t need to throw much but probably gets a bunch of playactions shots for huge yardage and some TDs as well. Colts win 45-20, which means Tyrod and Cooks take advantage of the Colts’ secondary with consistency. It’s honestly not bad analysis to say that the Texans have nothing else going for them. They are splitting their backfield between Rex Burkhead and David Johnson. They have, like, three half-decent linemen, and their best defensive player is Zach Cunningham, who they took out of the starting lineup for the first half of the year only to realize, yeah, the league-leader in tackles the last couple seasons should probably just have stayed in the lineup the whole time. This is a team who traded their best corner before the season and then cut their other starter after a few weeks. It’s not hyperbole to say they are the worst team in the league. But their offensive coordinator is super fucking good at his job. They will score some points. They will allow many, many more.
I mostly like Taylor (Brian), but I Oliver (Cooks and Pittman) stands to benefit most in terms of raw output. Darious Leonard (Max) should continue to be a DPOY candidate and boost Max’s slim chances of getting his first melee W.
Again, gross. We don’t even know if Jalen Hurts will play. Zach Wilson should play, but is he guaranteed to finish the game? This game could come down to Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco? This is dark stuff. From a fantasy perspective, I’m staying the hell away. It’s the type of game where even though we know some stuff (Eagles win in the trenches and probably have the edge in explosive players), it could all go to shit over some wacky fumbles. It’s also two good, young coaches who kind of have no idea what they’re doing and so they will play off each other’s mistakes rather than actually seeing advantages and taking them with intention.
The Jets have been awful against RBs, and they don’t have much discipline anywhere on the field. If the Eagles put a QB out there who can operate the playaction and hit the open man, the Eagles could dominate this game. I don’t see that possibility for the Jets. The Eagles don’t have legitimate linebackers, though I’m not sure how the Jets’ take advantage of that when they’re awful at getting runs to the second level or completing intermediate passes. I won’t make a score prediction, but I will say that I like Miles Sanders (Evan), Boston Scott (Oliver), and Elijah Moore (Spe), though honestly what else would I say? If there’s an angle to take advantage of for IDPs, it’s CJ Mosley (Brian), as the Eagles have skewed way toward the run during their recent success.
I am starting Cordarrelle Patterson and so I am inclined to believe that he will take advantage of the Bucs not really having a plan for him. Devin White is almost definitely out. Lavonte will be tied up covering either Pitts or Hurst. Patterson will be matched up on Kevin Minter or JPP most passing downs. I will take those chances. I don’t think anyone else on the Falcons’ offense will do anything for fantasy. Pitts will be the decoy, and Patterson will be the star.
On the Bucs’ offense, I like everybody. The obvious names will thrive, but I’m also keeping an eye on Ronald Jones. The time is coming for the Bucs to ease Lenny’s load and give more carries to RoJo. They’ve already started doing so at the goal line. The place they won’t do it is on passing downs. They’re going to keep Lenny active in pass formations to get him more and more prepared to be the dude in the playoffs. I think Bernard might be a better receiver, but I don’t think it matter since Lenny is so much bigger and stronger and thus gives the defense more to worry about.
On defense, the Bucs should allow some explosive plays. Bowles doesn’t mind giving up 17 points, and you might as well give it up in big chunks rather than let the defense gas itself out when the offense will be stacking points from the beginning. But will Brady just keep throwing interceptions? It seems like he will because, again, it doesn’t really matter if you have two turnovers if the offense is otherwise just stacking points. This is a 40-point game for the Bucs. I’ll stick with guessing 17 for Atlanta.
My favorites for fantasy are Brady & Evans (Oliver), Gronk (Corey), Lavonte (Evan), and Winfield (Cam) for the Bucs and Patterson (Doak) and Oluokun (Shelby) for the Falcons.
It’s really unnecessary to try to preview every game in detail. I’m going to pick and choose where I elaborate.
I like Barkley (Evan) and Waddle (Coleman), and I think that’s it. A sneaky DL in free agency: Leonard Williams. I might also consider an Emmanuel Ogbah against the Giants’ trash line. Giants’ DB Logan Ryan is coming off IR for this game and should return to racking up tackles and PDs. There will be interceptions in this game. I like Xavien Howard and James Bradberry to get them.
Dalvin and Swift are out, but each team is starting a quality backup RB. The Vikings’ run D has been awful with Michael Pierce out, but Pierce is back this week, and he weighs like 350 pounds. I think the Vikings are going to stuff up the middle with no problem. The problem is that the Vikings are weak on the edges, and Detroit has developed a diverse and successful rushing attack capable of stretching those edges and getting penetration away from Pierce and stud LB Eric Kendricks. If the Vikings’ offense takes care of business, which is pretty much a certainty, then Jared Goff will have to throw and will crap out and give the Vikings the game. It’s inevitable.
My favorites are Jefferson (Evan), Thielen (Cam), Cousins (Kennedy), Kendricks (Kennedy), and Harrison Smith (Corey). I don’t want any part of the Lions at all.
This is the one game that can pull my attention from the Bucs during the early window. Burrow vs. Herbert should be appointment viewing—if it isn’t already, this will be the game it begins. The Chargers have a great pass defense but can’t stop shit on the ground. The Bengals have been aggressive on defense and pounded the fucking rock on offense. On paper, the Chargers shouldn’t have a chance of winning. But the game is in Cincy, and it will be a little windy. Herbert has the gun to cut that wind; Burrow does not. It shouldn’t matter. Cincy should be able to run 45 times and cruise to victory. They might not since their head coach isn’t all that experienced, especially unexperienced when it comes to winning games where he’s favorited, but in a perfect world, the Bengals score on almost every possession and put a lot of pressure on Herbert, both literal pressure in the form of their elite d-line but also psychic pressure coming from behind throughout the game. Herbert doesn’t face pressure well. He does fine against the blitz, but the Bengals don’t need to blitz to get pressure. They can rush with four and offer confusing looks on the backend. If so, Evan (Herbert) doesn’t have a prayer to get a melee W.
My favorite player in this one is Mixon (Oliver). I could see double-digits from Ekeler (Coleman). Allen (Doak), Williams (Sean), Chase (Kennedy), and Higgins (Kennedy), but I wouldn’t bet on big production from Herbert or Burrow in this wind. In fact, the TEs and slot receivers might be the most likely to score any receiving TDs. For IDPs, I like Derwin & Bosa (Doak), Kyzir White (Spe), Hendrickson (Evan), and Hubbard (Shelby).
One of the best teams in the league, led by a frontrunner for coach of the year, against one of the worst, led by the most likely coach to get fired. Kyler Murray vs. Andy Dalton. The Cardinals have been very good on offense without Kyler. They’ve been great on defense. Chicago has one of the worst o-lines, especially the tackles. Chandler Jones and Markus Golden should eat. The Cards should run a decent amount, both to protect Murray and to set-up easy throws like they did for Colt McCoy. James Conner (Max) has been special for fantasy purposes, basically a top-10 RB even with Edmonds in the lineup. Edmonds is out again this week, all the better for Conner. The Bears’ defense isn’t terrible. The offense also isn’t terrible. But in every regard that matters, the Bears are worse than the Cardinals and can get no realistic advantage except that maybe the Cardinals are thinking more about next week’s matchup against the Rams than they are this likely cakewalk against a bunch of nobodies. It’s called a trap game, and it’s a windy game in Chicago. I can only assume it would come down to a run-heavy script for the Bears and a couple costly turnovers for the Cardinals that would swing this one barely in the Bears favor. I would bench everyone but Conner, Montgomery (Sean), and Ertz (Oliver) on offense, but I like all of it on defense, which I believe helps Shelby (Simmons), Corey (Hicks), and Cameron (Roquan, who is iffy). I suppose I would start Hopkins (Corey) just because if he plays he gets a lot of volume. Otherwise, ugly.
As opposed to ugly and nasty. This will be a route. I don’t care that it’s a trap game with the Rams looking ahead to their next game against the Cardinals. The Rams have been getting manhandled and are tired of everybody’s shit. They are going to punish the Jags in all phases on both sides of the ball and probably win 33-0. Jalen Ramsey is going to have a pick and a sack. None of the Jags will do a got damn thing! With Henderson (Oliver) out and OBJ (Spe) iffy, it’s going to be a huge game for Sony Michel and potentially Tyler Higbee. I think the Rams are going to use this games to get back to basics and get everyone confidence going into next week. Hmm, that sounds like a trap, shit!
Wow, the meeting of the two shittiest, least moral franchises. What an honor to comment. All I can say is that the Raiders’ season is over if they lose. Though they’ll just be 6-6 with a loss, they’ll then have to face KC, CLE, DEN, IND, and LAC to close the year, and my guess is that without Waller and with this shitty defense, they will lose all of those games, literally all of them. But they’ll probably beat Washington this weekend, if only because the Football Team is banged up on both sides of the ball, they’re losing to bad teams, and even their wins have been fraudulent. That 11-minute drive against the Bucs: total fluke. But the Raiders are also bad and banged up. So let’s throw some slop around for a couple hours and pretend this game has some impact on the big picture. After all, both teams will be 6-6 after this game.
I like Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson (both Brian), and Terry McLaurin (Coleman). I super-low-key like DeSean Jackson in another revenge game. If that happens, then it will open up things underneath for Moreau (Cam) and Renfrow (Evan). Logan Thomas (Brian?) should also be pretty good in this one. These LBs are wack but Perryman and Holcomb have both been racking up tackles this season.
Yes I will be watching this game in its entirety, and yes I will be nervous the entire time. The Steelers are not good, but it doesn’t seem to matter. They got blown out by the Bengals but will probably somehow turn that into an advantage against the Ravens. I believe Watt is out, but given that he hasn’t officially been ruled out, he’s probably vaccinated and so could test negative twice and suit up. The Steelers are generally good against the run, which is bad for the Ravens because it’s what they’re best at even when they’re bad at it. I don’t know. Lamar is going to throw a pick to Minkah. Lamar is going to take a lot of sacks. The Ravens are going to have too many long third downs. They aren’t going to score more than 27 points. 27 is a lot, probably enough to be the Steelers, but 27 as a ceiling is real bad.
The Steelers’ offense is probably the worst offense in the league, but you’d never know it since the fantasy options have mostly respectable numbers. The Ravens’ secondary would not hold up against 40 pass attempts from even the league’s worst QB. Three or four of them will go for 40-yard completions. It’s inevitable.
I want Najee to bounce back, but I don’t actually see it happening.
My favorites in this one would be Diontae Johnson (Oliver), Claypool (Sean), Bateman (Coleman), Andrews (Doak), and Brown (Shelby). On defense, I like Patrick Queen, Joe Schobert, Marlon Humphrey (Corey), and Minkah (Coleman).
If the Seahawks lose this game, they are out of the playoff hunt despite having five games remaining on their schedule. Things are depressing enough in this city as is. I don’t really think we could survive five weeks of Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson pretending they care about these games. So I hope they win, but these are the Seahawks. They are one of the worst teams right now. But to their favor, the 49ers have a terrible secondary. If the Seahawks can manufacture pass protection against this 49ers’ front, then Russ will be able to find guys open downfield for huge plays. Will one of them be DK Metcalf? Apparently Wilson hates his guts, so no. Wilson loves Tyler Lockett, so Tyler Lockett will have 150 yards and two TDs for his monthly explosion followed by three straight duds.
The Seahawks have an okay rush defense. They can hold up against what the 49ers do well, especially without Deebo Samuel in the mix. That’s the hope: that Deebo being out cripples the 49ers enough to give the Seahawks a sliver of daylight to live on, likely still having to rely on a last-minute TD to win this one.
For fantasy, I like Wilson (Coleman), Lockett (Evan), Mitchell (Kennedy), Kittle (Spe), and Aiyuk (Coleman) on offense. On defense, I like Wagner (Sean), Brooks (Doak), Adams (Oliver), and Bosa (Cam).
It’s an interesting Sunday night matchup. Denver is 6-5. The Chiefs are 7-4. The winner has the advantage in the divisional race. This is another windy game, though, and that favors Patrick Mahomes but only if the game comes down to the final minutes. There is a version of this game where Denver is able to get whatever they want running the ball and they’re setting up wide open crossers to Jerry Jeudy for explosive plays.
The obvious thing for the Broncos to do on defense is keep that roof on even if it means give up ground underneath. Slow down the Chiefs’ attack, eat clock when you have the ball, get into scoring range and score, even if it’s just field goals. But here’s the thing: in a windy game in arrowhead, you have to move that line-to-make all the way up to the red zone. Maybe just outside. Your goal on every drive needs to be that 20-yard line.
Patrick Surtain will be a superstar, and he might be a star already. He picked off Herbert twice last week and scored on one of them. He’s probably not going to pick off Mahomes, but he is supposedly going to matchup against Travis Kelce. I think it will work. I think the Broncos will give up a big play or two to Tyreek but that for the most part they will keep a lid on it and maybe even pull off the upset on the road. Mostly because I want Mahomes to lose this game for Cameron, though.
Belichick.
That is all.
Good luck this week, everyone. Somebody make just one trade!
