SimpleFunClassicAdventure 175 – 161 Sutton Gay Diggs
Even if the points don’t reflect it, this was the closest matchup we had this week. Nobody had Lamar scoring 41 FP facing the Chiefs. In hindsight, 300 yards and three TDs trailing all game to the best offense in the league isn’t that crazy. With Lamar, it comes a little different, obviously. This was his all-time-record fourth career game with 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards. We don’t love that he threw two interceptions (including a pick-six), but we absolutely adore six first downs for the second straight game to open the season. We love Lamar in Mortydome because he adds those five or six points per game that other QBs don’t. Right now, Lamar in fifth in first downs, trailing only superstar RBs CMC, Dalvin, Henry, and JT, all of whom we would have drafted ahead of him. Lamar is QB6 right now, and if you took just his rushing stats, he would be RB6. (Sadly, if you took just his passing stats, he would be QB27.)
Anyway, what I want to say about Sean’s team is that he has all the periphery in place to make a real run at the championship. He has studs at all but one onesie position (has QB, TE, K, DL, LB, and DB; I don’t like Kirksey as DX, but he’s gotten the points so far, so…). He has an elite RB (and his handcuff). His second RB is better than some team’s first. His bench is a pile of vomit in a trendy backpack, but it’s fine. He doesn’t have great WRs. Even when Jeudy comes back, it’s his weakest area. But so far, so good. Mike Williams is out-scoring Keenan Allen and Chase Claypool is getting a bunch of high-leverage looks in his offense. Mike Davis is coming off games against two of the better D-lines where he’s been an okay flex. Robby Anderson is stuck on the bench but might end up being Sean’s WR1 once teams start seriously keying in on DJ Moore. Sean’s fucking 2-0, bitches.
Spencer’s 0-2, and though he spent his draft picks well at the time, it feels like his players have bad intentions for this season. The quick rundown, mostly in order: Diggs, Devin White, Zeke, Kittle, RB1son, OBJ, Sutton, IR Thomas, Chinn—omg, do you have room for White Chinn in your team name? I hate the name right now, but maybe that’s because it isn’t finished (hasn’t finished?)—Hunter, Michel, Juju, Ty’Son, Gay, Milano… there are other dudes, but not, like, starter dudes. These are great players. The problem is almost none of them can score 30 points in a game. I think opposing defenses will watch Hurts’ game against San Fran and having the antidote for any major damage he’s capable of. He’s probably good for 22 but not much more. He could prove me wrong against Dallas, but then his schedule goes KC, CAR, TB, LV, DET. LAC, DEN, NO, NYG, NYJ, bye. His playoffs are WAS, NYG, WAS, DAL. Honestly, he probably won’t make it through the bye week as starter. The Eagles are going to bring in the chicanery and have Minshew playing between the 20s and Hurts in the red zone, and we’re all going to hate it as much as we hated the Taysom-Brees tandem.
Was I supposed to be recapping the matchup? Sean won because his team fucking rules. Spencer lost, and I think he hit his near his ceiling. Hurts had 24 in what should have been a blowout loss that led to more risk/more turnovers, but the 49ers couldn’t keep their foot on the gas without any healthy RBs. Zeke somehow had 20 in a timeshare. Sutton had 150 yards. Danielle Hunter had 22. Milano had 16. I suppose there was meat on the bone. Kittle did squat, Ty’Son looked electric but operated in a four-headed rushing rat-king. White and Chinn combined for 9.5, which is usually what they score apiece. But that’s the balance. The big names are not firing like big names, and the nobodies are outplaying their draft stock but not even getting into like the top 15 at their positions. But if you hear the trumpet sound that I hear (maybe it’s a cornet?), then you know Sony Michel, OBJ, and Juju have arrived to tighten up the flex spot that James Robinson can’t hold down, maybe even deliver enough for Spencer to move Zeke before his value tanks.
Kermit Mahomes 220 – 134 Better Luck Next Year
Okay, so my revenge game thing didn’t pan out. Rodgers was incredible, but only one team in our league (Kennedy) had the firepower to match 220, and even he didn’t actually start those guys. So you look at Tim’s bench and you see Tony Pollard had 30 points. Maybe you dig a little deeper and you see it was on 16 touches. Maybe you extrapolate and say, Wait, if Tony Pollard had as many touches as Derrick Henry this week (41), then he would have scored 78 fantasy points, and maybe then Tim would have won. (The sad part is he wouldn’t have. Even slotting Pollard in over James Conner would only have given Tim an extra 73 points. He would still have lost by double digits.)
So we crown Cameron champion now, yeah? He has Mahomes, Henry, Waller, a bunch of sick WRs, the #1 LB Roquan Smith, Nick Bosa doing disgusting shit… Cameron’s bench is garbage, but that’s why it’s the bench, right? These guys don’t play. So to be clear, Cameron has the best lineup, even with a mediocre kicker and basically nothing at DX, but he doesn’t need depth because starters live forev—what’s that? Antonio Brown is in the news? Oh god, where’s his penis? Oh, it’s only COVID? I mean, if anybody were going to somehow spin COVID into an extended absence, it would be the NFL’s wildest wild card. But that’s okay, that’s what… Melvin Gordon is for? Hmmm… Seems like the armor is already cracking over there. Just imagine if Henry missed time and Cameron had to figure out which of Gordon, Fournette, and RoJo to start each week. But then, if AB was fine and whoever Cam started was good for like 10 points, we’ve seen Mahomes, four WRs, and solid peripherals deliver a championship just last year.
I got sidetracked, but my question for Tim’s team was, Did he find his starting RB in Tony Pollard? I know Pollard is a backup, but Tim’s starting RBs right now are already backups. His entire RB room—Conner, Hunt, Lindsay, Pollard, McKissic—is backups. When volume is more or less equal (it’s not in this case, but let’s shimmy on), you go with talent, and among this group, that’s Pollard first, followed closely by Hunt, then Conner, Lindsay, and McKissic are all kind of blobbed together. McKissic looked good last Thursday, but that’s what fringe fantasy players do on Thursdays. I don’t love Tim’s team, but Tim has a team. It’s not as bad as the points suggest. He does probably need a more legitimate RB, but Hunt and Pollard are getting enough done right now that they can be role players while Rodgers, Adams, and Ridley do the heavy lifting.
Cameron just barely missed out on the Mortydome single-game scoring record, but he became only the second team to get to 220. The mark to beat is still Kennedy’s 222.29 from Week 9 last year.
Slut Dragons 186 – 79 JCor413
In a game of Burrow vs. Winston, the answer was—you guessed it—neither. Burrow was sitting at about negative-6 in the fourth quarter before pulling two bomb TDs out of his ass. Jameis was just Jameis. He completed half of his passes and threw two gnarly picks before narrowly avoiding total embarrassment with a late TD run. Why was Jameis starting over Josh Allen? I suppose it’s because Josh Allen was playing Miami, who boast the league’s best corner tandem (and even trio with slot-corner Justin Coleman), while Jameis was playing Carolina, who sucked out loud on defense last year. The problem is that Carolina’s defense might be really, really good. They quietly tightened up their starting lineup and added depth in the offseason. They also cut dead-weight veterans that were taking up space in front of their up-and-comers. Remember, the Panthers used all of last year’s draft picks on defense. They knew they sucked, and they were proactive. They still sucked, but they bore it, and now they are deep. They didn’t even need most of those dudes to become starters. They signed quality veterans on the line and drafted one of the top two corners in this year’s draft. The point is that while this may have been a classic Jameis game, the Panthers also have a legitimate defense. They get pressure, and they have two incredible corners, not to mention at least on Pro-Bowl candidate in each other position group.
What I enjoyed in this game was Kennedy having the pieces to break his own scoring record. Had Kennedy started Kirk Cousins over Burrow and Rondale Moore over Allen Robinson, he would have hit 225 points. It is, to my recollection (which is saying nothing), the highest potential score we have seen in Mortydome. And even ignoring the shoulda-started thing, we saw just okay games from players like Higgins, Robinson, Swift—a guys with high upside who will score better most weeks. You’d expect 41 from Aaron Jones to be the best you’ll see all year from him, time to sell high or whatever, but it’s not even his personal best. Jones had 50 in a game last year in… Week 2… against… Detroit… okay, it is probably time to sell high. Maybe Tim wants to complete his Packers set?
Corey can just brush this one off, I think. He basically halved his score from Week 1. Will we see Gronk and Pitts starting for him next week? We sure will, but that’s fine because at least you’re avoiding one boom-bust from either DJ Chark or Corey Davis. I think you have to be a little less thirsty when it comes to these free agent RBs, though. Peyton Barber? Even when Peyton Barber was good, he wasn’t good. And now he’s playing behind the worst run-blocking line in the league. I think with Nyheim Hines on waivers, you gotta make that bid. Then I think you go to Brian and offer Hopkins and Gaskin for Taylor and Ruggs. You lose a little bit of value, but then you drop all of your non-Colt RBs and just keep playing the lottery with FA WRs. (Note: I’m never actually recommending anyone do anything specific to their teams. I think Corey can survive standing pat. I’d just be interested to see if the approach of owning the Colts’ backfield turned into anything.)
It Is What It Is 154 – 117 Fart69
This was supposed to be a juicy matchup between two of the best QBs in the league and between two teams with very different approaches to teambuilding paying off in different ways. If they played again this week, I’d still think it was a juicy matchup. Only two things would need to change. Dak would need to play a whole lot better, and Brian would need to put more strategy into his IDPs. Reddick and Martinez are good. Minkah is fine, but he’s one of those frustrating players whose real-life contributions don’t equate to fantasy points. Tremaine Edmunds can score points, but the Dolphins aren’t a good matchup for him. But Doak, explain why Matt Milano had 16 in the same matchup. Basically, the Dolphins don’t do anything up the middle, even less so against an imposing front like the Bills’. Edmunds gets stuck in traffic while Milano is getting stretches, screens, and flats driven right to him. When picking your LB, you want to have some conception of what’s in front of him on his own line and what the other team is going to do with their running game. You also have to get lucky since I’m mostly assuming that’s how fantasy points get scored. I’ll also say that while Edmunds is fast and can tackle, he’s not great in coverage or at rushing the passer, so it’s not like all MLBs get swallowed up against Miami. Milano is usually the better fantasy option between the two because he is a more versatile defender. But you don’t always want versatility. Against a team like Tennessee, you’ll take whichever linebacker tackles better, and if he’s also versatile, then you get the kind of game Bobby Wagner had for Sean this past week (24 points: 20 tackles and a sack). It’s a little bit of a moving goalpost since fantasy points are never guaranteed (see: Dak), but there’s some merit to the process.
Shelby’s Cardinal superstack almost delivered en toto, but Chandler Jones failed to get around the two quality tackles in Minnesota. I feel like with the Cards playing Jacksonville this week, you just saddle up and ride again, though. Shelby has everything working for her. She’s lucky that benching Hollywood for Jarvis didn’t hurt her this week, but even still, you’re looking at 150 from a very balanced team that came into the draft without a first-rounder. It’s possible when you hit on those middling RBs. Chris Carson and Chase Edmonds are really all you need when you’ve got Julio, AJ Brown, Hollywood, and Deebo to choose from. The Titans duo is weird, but it works. They pretty much guarantee you exactly 20 points combined from the two WR spots, and you get your upside elsewhere. Most weeks, it’ll be Kyler (who had 400 yards and 4 TDs last week), but Hollywood and Deebo are already showing potential to be those spark-plugs, too.
Both of these teams are still in the top half of the league for me, but the cracks in Brian’s foundation are now showing. Of his five RBs, all kept or taken before any of his other players, Josh Jacobs is hurt and determined to make it worse, CEH is not getting targeted and then fumbling away a critical possession, Gibson is ceding a bunch of receptions to McKissic, and Taylor’s offense is… I’m not sure I would call it an offense. Four of the Colts’ starting linemen are banged up or out with injury, the QB sprained both(?!) ankles, and Jack Doyle is second in targets. The best thing about Brian’s team is that the guesswork is taken out of it. You know who’s starting at each position each week because any alternative would be, at best, a bit.
Summer Smith 142 – 138 Scary Terry… Bitch
So this was actually the closest contest of the week, but that’s only because Russ threw a 60-yard TD to open the fourth quarter. Before that, it looked like Oliver was going to win before his last player’s game started. But that’s why you draft Russ in the third round. You’re never out of it if you have one of these great QBs. Oliver got another 40-point week from Brady, and it seems crazy Brady would only be the QB3 with that stat, but like the fantasy sharps will tell you, non-rushing QBs can’t be the best without being gross statistical outliers. I was looking at the stats but also looking at them wrong when I saw Brady was on pace for 77 TDs and 34 INTs—it’s actually 17 INTs, but even when it was 30, I thought well damn, Brady might just come for all the records. He sees people in awe of Jameis’ 30-30 and is like, Hold my avocado tequila. 77 TDs, that’s Barry Bonds territory. When you set a record, you want to set it in stone. Brady set the record at 50 back in 2007. That stood for a minute before Peyton put up 55 in 2013. Mahomes has since hit 50, so Brady’s got something to prove. There’s also this thing Drew Brees talked about once, about how he always finds some competitive angle to get him locked into a game. This was when the defense was great and he was in a lot of blowouts and literally needed a reason to care about how he played. So he’d find some angle. Whatever. The point is, Brady’s angle is not just breaking Peyton’s record but establishing an unbreakable record. Single-season yards is also on the table, but at his current pace, he won’t break 6,000. I’m thinking, though, that he wants 6,000. The 17-game season cheapens any narrow breaking of a record, like how 61* was a legendary mark, but Maris had ten extra games. Brady shouldn’t be satisfied with fewer than 60 TDs and 6,000 yards (if records are what he’s about, which, I mean, he probably is, right?). The only way to get there is to throw when you don’t have to, where you don’t have to. That means interceptions. I don’t think he’ll set the interceptions record, and I think it would obviously cheapen any of his other records if he did. But if he does, he will be QB1 in fantasy. Even with all the rushing yards and first downs, Kyler is not keeping up with 60-70 TDs. (For the record, I would put money on Brady breaking 60 TDs this year.)
What a digression.
So for these teams, look, I think they’re both legit and the time an energy I had dedicated to reviewing last week’s matchups and whatever other bullshit I’m slinging has kind of elapsed. What I like about Coleman’s team is that he can compete despite getting three points from his best player and zero from his kicker. What I like about Oliver’s is that he has about 50-60 points on his bench every week, and it’s hard to say who he’d bench to get those points in his lineup.
Mountain Dew Portal Juice 115 – 108 Steampunk Overlord
Dude, we suck.
Moving on.
Oliver (2-0) vs. Shelby (2-0)
The only matchup between 2-0 teams is the marquee in Mortydome this week. I want a Kyler-Brady matchup in real life, but I will settle for this. In general, Shelby has the benefit of much better matchups. Brady gets the Rams which means Evans gets Ramsey, Chubb gets the Bears, Mixon gets Pittsburgh, Cooks gets Carolina (who are good now, remember), even Cooper has to go against Darius Slay. Even the kicker duel is in Shelby’s favor. Daniel Carlson (aka Gruden’s Pendulum) is at home in the dome.
Brian (1-1) vs. Coleman (0-2)
Brian probably doesn’t deserve to start 1-2, but Coleman really doesn’t deserve to start 0-3. That’s how these things get decided. For the sake of orienting it to the game the game is based on and not satisfying number things, I’ll say that the reason Brian loses is because Dak will be down to a WR and a half with Cooper limited and because Dak won’t attempt a deep ball again, capping his potential to about 20 points. Meanwhile, Kamara has one of those unprecedented great games in a terrible matchup, scoring 40 points IN New England. More realistically, Ekeler also has 40, as the Chargers need him to be the X-factor if they want to beat the Chiefs. Would this be the first time Mahomes has had a losing record as a pro? Yes. The Chiefs’ worst start before this year was going 4-0. Mahomes was even 1-0 his rookie year. With Tua out, I don’t like Jaylen Waddle or Jason Sanders this week. I’d prefer Latavius or Reagor in that flex spot, and you can cut Sanders. (Again, not actually telling anyone what to do. This game is random and Waddle/Sanders could combine for 40 as easily as they could for zero.)
Corey (1-1) vs. Sean (2-0)
I think the Lamar-Cook combo gives Sean the edge, but Cook is pretty banged up. Corey’s best three are Josh Allen, Tyreek, and Nuk (mayyybe you make a case for Gronk). Sean’s are Lamar, Cook, and David Montgomery. The matchups are a mixed bag, but the best bet to lead all of these dudes in points is Tyreek against the Chargers. Derwin will have Kelce on lock, but the rest of the Chargers’ secondary is going to get Buccaneer levels of burnt by The Cheetah (short for Child-beetah) this week. Sean might fall short if Hockenson gets the same treatment Kelce got from the Ravens last week. Kelce scored about half his points on one breakaway TD, which I don’t think Hock has the wheels for. A dark horse for top-scorer in this matchup: Myles Garrett versus whatever bag of bricks Chicago lines up at LT this week. Had Dalton been starting, Garrett would be a favorite here, but I think Fields can escape him—maybe not every time but enough times. I don’t want to see Sean go 3-0 starting Mike Williams and Mike Davis, but I kind of want to see Sean go 3-0 starting Mike Williams and Mike Davis, if only to further proselytize the Book of Lamar.
Kennedy (1-1) vs. Spencer (2-0)
Using the same logic as Coleman’s matchup, Spencer’s team doesn’t deserve to go 0-3, mostly because Spencer’s 6th in scoring through two weeks, and keeping it pretty consistent with 140 in Week 1 and 150 in Week 2. Even if you leave deserve out of it, Spencer has the upper hand because Kennedy’s team is so banged up. Plus he’s starting Kirk Cousins in an obvious spot. If we could trust Kirk Cousins in an obvious spot, he wouldn’t go undrafted and mostly unplayed every year. Not that I think there’s anything Kennedy can do about it. Cincinnati is going to get their collective teeth rammed in by Pittsburgh this week, and similarly unreliable Teddy B is the best thing in free agency (unless you count Danny Dimes, which might be the appropriate amount of desperate for K this week). I say get weird with that lineup and have fun with it. It’s going to be the best fantasy game of Jalen Hurts’ whole career, and George Kittle is going to feast against Green Bay. Take a bow, Spe. No need to even play this one.
Cameron (2-0) vs. Evan (0-2)
Mahomes vs. Herbert in reality, Mahomes vs. Herbert in fantasy. For Evan’s sake, I don’t like it one bit. I love some of Evan’s other matchups, starting with Barkley against the Falcons and Lockett vs. the Vikings. Ooh, we also get Thielen vs. Jefferson here, and I’m giving the edge to Jefferson even though Thielen has been a great safety blanket for Cousins. Waller against Miami is interesting. What would Belichick do? I feel like he would put the clamp on Waller and rush five against Carr and this shitty line, so I feel like that’s what Flores will do. Yes, I am merely making the case for what it takes for Evan to win at this point. I offered to take Kupp off Cameron’s hands before he gets goosed by Carlton Davis, but Cameron would rather come back next week with his tail between his legs looking for the same offer again. Oh, Cameron, don’t you know I’m vindictive just to feel something?
The only problem with Evan’s team is that he’s grasping for straws at TE. Evan, please, just pick up your QB’s TE. The math works in your favor. Jared Cook should have had a TD last week, but it got called back on an “illegal shift” because Keenan Allen switched the position of his feet a full second before the snap? Cook is legit, and the pairing with your QB only helps, especially in what should be a higher point-total than Buffalo-Washington.
Doak (1-1) vs. Tim (0-2)
I really have no business having the win that I do, so I’m rooting for Tim in this one. I’m playing my best lineup, but trust me: my best is the worst.
