#1 Kermit Mahomes – 203 FP
Nothing like starting off the year with a cash win. Cameron is not only bought in for just $40 now; he also looks like the favorite to score $370 (= $600 - $180 for cash games - $50 for 2nd place) at the end of the year. After all, the best team in Week 1 always follows through for the whole season. Just look at last year. Kennedy paced the next best of us by 27 points in Week 1, and he went… on… to… well, he did get his buy-in back. Okay, fine, but in 2019, Coleman dropped 209 in the melee and then… he… went 6-7, missed the playoffs, and lost the 1st pick game to Oliver. Hmm… the moral seems to be that Week 1 has no correlation with future success. Sorry, dude! You have a very scary team, though, and I’m glad I don’t face you for real until late, late in the year. Though your Bucs’ backfield looks truly worthless, you don’t have to worry about it with Thielen, Kupp, Lamb, and AB doing their thing. Darren Waller’s 19 targets in Week 1 don’t look bad either. This team has no weaknesses. It is the perfect team. No harm shall come to it. We’re all playing for second place.
#2 Summer Smith – 189 FP
I can’t wait until Oliver loses—not because I’m vindictive, jealous, petty, and shitty but because when Oliver loses, he will change his team name to something a little spicier. The blandness of simply naming the team after the character fails to capture the essence of Summer that lives in this team’s history: started out in the background, possibly the Meg of the family, the easy punching bag when the writers fail to break a satisfying story. Summer the accident. Summer the ditz. Summer the popularity-chaser. We need a name that captures the essence of Summer the Future Rick. Gimme a badass team name to go with this lineup of valuable castaways. Except for Nick Chubb, who Oliver reached for a little bit (for good reason), every player on this roster slipped past where they should have been drafted. Mixon in the third, Cooper in practically the 4th, Darrell Henderson in the 4th, Brandin Cooks in, what, the 7th?! A target hog in the 7th, which is basically equivalent to the 9th round? I will love following the storyline of the team that kept two IDPs and waited on QB. It’s shaping up to be the zig to this league’s zag.
#3 JCor413 – 183 FP
And it would’ve been more if you’d started the prodigal son Jameis Winston over last year’s news Josh Allen. Winston more than doubled Allen’s score, and we all know this has been years in the making. The real story this week was Corey’s WR corps, led by 36 FP from Tyreek, but notably it’s late keeper Corey Davis coming in with 23 points off of two second-half TDs. And for comedic effect, let’s throw in DJ Chark getting 18 points off three catches of twelve targets. But hey man, I’m not mad at it. You buy into Chark for the target volume because when you have league-leading volume, you have all the opportunities you need for one big score. I’m looking at this Pitts-Gronk dilemma at TE, and I’m saying to myself I would have started the Rice to Brady’s Montana in Week 1 over some rookie unicorn shit, but given the reigns, I’m not so sure. Going forward, I think it should be all Gronk, partly because of the chemistry with the QB but also because it seems like that’s what opposing defenses will give this Tampa Bay offense. I mean, ideally, they drop eight into coverage and tempt the Bucs to run every down, but apart from that happening, teams would rather give up 15 to Gronk than the full field to Evans, Godwin, or sleeper WR1 AB. I’m still nervous about Corey’s RB situation. Gaskin was fine against a solid Pats D, maybe the toughest matchup he’ll deal with this year, but his only reserve RB is Marlon Mack, who is coming off a torn Achilles and did not play in Week 1. Would he have still gotten a melee win with an empty RB spot this week? Yes. But will that be true most weeks? We’ll see.
#4 It Is What It Is – 179 FP
As expected, Shelby leaned on the Cardinals, and the Cardinals played like basically the bets team in the league. Shelby even went and picked up Chandler Jones, meaning next week she’ll be the first team in Mortydome history to start three IDPs from one NFL team. She’s a legend, and she’s revolutionizing IDP play as we know it. I doubt it will pay off like it would have in Week 1 when Chandler Jones fell just four points short of Kyler’s huge day, but she can also look forward to her Titans WR duo bouncing back in Week 2—I don’t know the matchup or anything; it’s just statistically probable they’ll have more points between them than they did against the Cardin—wait, you’re telling me half of Shelby’s team was playing in a single NFL game this week, and she won? And she would have won against all but three teams in a normal week? This is an interesting strategy that would be pretty hard to repeat. You own enough of one team that you live and die by them, only then you take as many good players on their opposing team that week so that you effectively live if they die anyway. Revolutionary. Truly a legend.
#5 SimpleFunClassicAdventure – 171 FP
Gotta love when someone essentially admits to autodrafting a team they have no confidence in, then comes out and gets the win in Week 1. What was incredible about Sean’s week was the balance going down the lineup: 22, 20, 11, 13, 23, 10, 23, 10, 7.5, 14, 7.5, 6… okay it tails off when we get to the IDPs, but that’s still a very balanced IDP group with everything between 6 and 15. If I didn’t mention it in the draft recap, Sean stole Bobby Wagner in this draft. Wagner should have been the fourth LB off the board and should’ve gone in the 5th round. Sean got him in the 7th, AFTER the likes of Blake Martinez and Jordan Poyer were off the board. Sean would do well to upgrade on Oluokun in his DX spot (working shorthand for IDP FLEX spot) while there are still sleeping giants in free agency.
While we’re here, let me give you the top 10 IDP free agents, in no particular order: Maxx Crosby, Von Miller, Logan Ryan, Kenneth Murray, Cam Heyward, John Johnson, Harrison Smith, Jerome Baker, Shaq Thompson, Kenny Young. That’s 3 DL, 3 DB, and 4 LB. If you’re feeling sketchy about any of your IDPs, give one of these guys a look. (Note: I don’t love Thompson’s matchup this week, but I’d bet on anyone else; the only reason I haven’t dropped CJ Mosley for any of them is because I think the Pats are a dream matchup for a MLB). Edit: Evan picked up Thompson (he would), so I’ll replace him in this group with Lions DB Tracy Walker, who is back to playing the same position he played when he finished as a top-5 DB two years ago.
#6 Fart69 – 170 FP
Well this is certainly what I get for ranking him so low in the draft recap, but I think I mentioned I did it mostly out of spite for the wonky draft strategy. Just like Corey only needs one RB (and maybe not even), Brian only needs two WRs, especially if they each get into the endzone. Woods’ usage Sunday night was troubling. He played ran fewer routes than sophomore breakout candidate Van Jefferson. But Brian is methodically combing the sand for that reserve WR. He’s got Will Fuller back from suspension, and he’s added crunch time phenom Bryan Edwards, who had 81 yards receiving after the two-minute mark in the 4th quarter of Monday’s game. Even if neither of these guys pans out, there’s always forty more bodies to kick to see if one’s breathing just enough to get you seven points. With three RBs combining for 60 points each week, and a QB threatening 40—and Brian’s cut the fat on defense—do you need WRs? Just do the Shanahan thing and stash more RBs than you can use while only using 1.5 WRs while still steamrolling the competition.
#7 Scary Terry… Bitch – 155 FP
Coleman more or less deserved a win. We kind of expect 150 to be the dividing line between melee wins and losses, and so it is disappointing to score 155 and lose. Brandon Aiyuk was the face of that disappointment. At least in our league, he had a fraction of a point off punt returns. In most leagues, he goosed ya. Had Coleman started his best bench WR—surprise 5th-rounder Jaylen Waddle—he still would have missed winning by about a point. Brutal stuff, but I thin underachieving in Week 1 can be a good thing. Hopefully you roll out pretty much the same lineup—except Aiyuk, who I think should be benched for the electric Waddle—and see similar or better production in Week 2. I want to shoutout Coleman’s IDP group, who scored 9.5, 9.5, 11, and 10 for a total of 40 points, aka the ideal. Shelby’s IDP revolution beat this output by a mile (hers had 50), but still, I want to credit teams who are winning the IDP battle. I will also honorable-mention Corey’s IDPs here since I missed it earlier.
#8 Slut Dragons – 144 FP
Kennedy got screwed because arguably his best two players had this team’s worst performances in Week 1. Who knew that starting rookies JaMarr Chase and Rondale Moore over Aaron Jones and Allen Robinson would have made you more competitive. In fact, had Kennedy done just that, he would have edge Brian by a point and taken that sixth melee win. Sucks, dude. Fuckin’ sucks. What do you even do? Do you take Week 1 at face value and at least bench Robinson (who didn’t run one route beyond ten yards, granted he was mostly decoying across from Jalen Ramsey)? I’m granting you stick with Aaron Jones, who gets Detroit this week, the same Detroit that your waiver prize Elijah Mitchell scooted over 100 yards on last week. Robinson gets Cincinnati, which feels good, but the Bengals’ d-line is coming up, maybe not quite to the Rams’ level, but not that far off it. If Dalton can’t get the ball out, who cares how much worse Trae Waynes is than Jalen Ramsey? What’s worse is your Bengals’ triple-stack (Burrow, Higgins, Chase) is rolling into a worse matchup than they had last week. So I think you’re pretty fucked and just have to ride out the storm. I think if nothing else, you have to consider starting JaMarr Chase over Tee Higgins. Chase had more targets and (subjectively) more juice, not to mention more apparent chemistry with the QB. It’s a shame you think you needed to cut Terrace Marshall for Kirk Cousins. Cutting Marshall is fine, but I’d rather see you do it for some upside, not for the chance to clone your current QB.
#9 Trubisky’s Revenge – 140 FP
Not a quality team name for karma’s sake. You really want a name that say something about your fantasy team, not your sidepiece NFL franchise. I am annoyed to see Jalen Hurts scoring so many points. I am being battered by this Gus Edwards keeper flip-floppery I committed pre-draft. I don’t think it will last, though, the karma or specifically Jalen Hurts’ quality play. He’s still throwing that loopy college kind of throw that’s not quite a duck but also not the Russ-patented moonshot that floats in only where his WR can basket-catch it. Jalen Hurts was going against a bottom-five defense. (Talent-wise, it might be the worst defense. The Texans should be worse in the long run. The Jags are worse now but more talented. The Lions look bad but won’t look that bad against most offenses. There aren’t many other obvious contenders. The Eagles might be bad if their d-line weren’t elite.) I am really, really excited to see what Hurts does against San Francisco, also kind of a bad defense because they have no corners, but unmistakably more talented than Atlanta, who basically have Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones, and a bunch of nothing. What else is there to say about Spe’s team? His big names played like dookie, but it was nice to see Ty’Son Williams take advantage of the RB vacuum in Baltimore. And Spencer can relax looking at his quality IDP sitch, though I I would recommend choosing between Chinn and Simmons for DB and bringing in an upgrade for the flex spot. The bench was bad, too, but we should remember Spencer is playing the long game. I think Sony Michel, OBJ, and Michael Thomas will all factor in when the 12-team playoff begins.
#10 Steampunk Overlord – 133 FP
It’s more or less what you’d expect when your QB has an awful matchup, when your main RB is getting just ten carries, being eased in to action coming back from a major injury. But there’s a lot to like about what went down Sunday. We saw Miles Sanders in a feature role, ceding some important work to Kenny Gainwell but not being mixed up in a full committee with Scott, too. Tyler Lockett did his thing. Justin Jefferson was relatively bad but still gave you a solid floor (including some passing yards). DeVonta Smith looks like the truth (against a shit defense, but still, good to see him treated like the #1 right away). Devin Singletary solved any problem you might have had choosing between Bills RBs. I think you keep Moss around until you need the room, but it’s nice to know you can start Singletary if you think Saquon will be limited again Thursday night in a shit matchup. While it looks bad to have zeroes on your bench, there’s that silver lining of roster flexibility. You get to drop Russell Gage and OJ Howard and take shots on some intriguing free agents. It’s nice. What else is nice is you found out you have another WR1 (on his NFL team, I mean) in Nelson Agholor, so you have roster flexibility and you have lineup flexibility. The issue is that despite all of this, you don’t have a high ceiling without Barkley getting back to business. I think Herbert tossing in double the points going forward will be a huge boost, but in order to become a legit contender, you need Barkley threatening 30 every week. Miles Sanders was good against Atlanta, and efficient, but 17 in a beautiful matchup isn’t exactly RB1 production. With the Herbert bump, and with a little IDP adjustment—you wait one week on the Dallas LBs, see if they start playing more than the 80% of snaps they did last Thursday, then cut the one playing less—you look more like a 150-point team than a 130-point team. That’s good not great. But if Barkley gets going, you’re a 170-point team, and that’s where you need to be in order to get to the finish line in this league.
#11 Mountain Dew Portal Juice - 126 FP
Because my team is fraudulent. I have a bellcow RB who has no offensive line in front of him. Najee got hit behind the line on like 70% of his carries. That’s Cam Akers FSU level shit. You can eke productivity out of that, but you can’t get back first-round value without a shitload of TDs. Outside of Stafford, my team stunk. DK and Keenan combined for 30, which is quality but not the upper echelon excellence I expected. My next highest scorer was Justin Tucker, which I’m into, but no, not really, not at all. When I draft the best kicker, I still want him to be like the ninth best player in my lineup each week. This week sucked. Tucker outscored the combination of my TE and FLEXs. My main IDPs came to play though, each scoring exactly 9.5, outside of CJ Mosley who is squarely on the roster bubble and might get this one more week against the Pats to prove something but might get cut for something a little spicier (Von Miller vs. Jacksonville has my attention, people). It was cool to see Trey Lance score, but it was not cool to see Jimmy G do all the other stuff as well as he did. Granted, the Lions’ secondary is Tracy Walker and a bunch of corpses. I’m looking forward to Darius Slay locking down Deebo this week, though Jimmy will probably just change gears and shuffle the 180 receiving yards to Kittle, keep his job another week, and we’ll see where we’re at then, I guess. I didn’t expect Trey Lance to start until midseason, so I’m not concerned. The rest of my team is stupid and I hate them and I’m starting Van Jefferson and MVS this week to show these losers how upside works.
I want to take a full paragraph to talk about Cordarrelle Patterson. Here are some things to understand about Patterson. He is the Falcons’ #2 RB, and he plays about as much as their #1 RB, Mike Davis. Davis and Patterson were each signed to one-year deals this offseason. Davis gets paid $2.5M; Patterson gets paid $3M. Mike Davis is 5’9”, 220 lbs. Elite BMI for his position. Patterson is 6’2”, 238 lbs. HC Arthur Smith coached a RB last year who was 6’3”, 238 lbs. His name is Derrick Henry. So when I say that Cordarrelle Patterson is “Derrick Henry 0.5,” I want you to understand I actually believe that Arthur Smith will eventually turn to Patterson as a workhorse back, with the added benefit of Patterson being a dynamic pass-catcher. It might take a month for this to happen. I am assuming this massive a move wouldn’t occur until after the Falcons’ Week 6 bye. But friends, believe my nervous breakdown is imminent when I tell you that Cordarrelle Patterson is going to be used like Derrick Henry in this offense and that I am going to ride into the playoffs on his impossible frame. (Like, literally, where does he put the weight if he and Henry weigh the same? I do not understand.)
#12 Timothy – 75 FP
For how many years have I been trying to tell you all that Aaron Rodgers sucks?
I am happy to be back to match play, where I might actually have a chance.
Mountain Dew Portal Juice vs. Steampunk Overlord
QB Stafford (@IND) vs. Herbert (v.DAL)
Indy got spanked by Seattle, who now run the McVay offense. I think since they’re prepared for it, the Rams won’t quite be able to exploit them as much. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense sucks and Herbert is setup for a bounce-back. Edge: Evan.
RB Najee vs. Sanders
Najee has volume, and volume is king. Edge: Doak
WR Metcalf vs. Lockett
It was Lockett last week, so I think it will be Metcalf this week. Edge: Doak
WR Justin Jefferson vs. Van Jefferson
They’re both named Jefferson, so it’s too hard to call. No edge.
TE Andrews vs. Everett
Please. Edge: Doak
FX MVS vs. Singletary
Disgusting all around. But I will concede volume here. Edge: Evan
FX Keenan Allen vs. DeVonta Smith
Maybe this is stupid to say, but at this moment I see no difference between these two, in fantasy terms. No edge.
K Tucker vs. Gould.
Edge: Doak
DL Sweat vs. Young
I love the symmetry in this matchup, the Seattle WRs and now the Washington DLs. Young is stronger, more complete, but Sweat is 6’6”, runs a 4.4, and narrowly outscored Young last week. No edge.
LB Myles Jack vs. Lavonte
Edge: Evan
DB Derwin vs. Keanu
Be still my fucking heart, my favorite two DBs. Keanu’s not a DB anymore, and he doesn’t play enough snaps to be a consistent fantasy starter. Edge: Doak
DX CJ Mosley vs. Shaq Thompson
Thompson is a much better player, but Mosley has a better matchup. Slight edge: Evan.
I’m literally not going to bother adding it up. I predict I will win by 5-10 points.
I’m not crazy about repeating that format for all these matchups. It's kind of tedious, and I'm kind of lazy. And I’m too lazy to go back a symmetrize it. Just know I’m going to cut the fat for the remaining matchups.
Summer Smith vs. Scary Terry… Bitch
Wilson vs. Brady is the main appeal here, but I’ll be looking at the FLEX matchup to decide this one. Oliver’s starting Mixon and Dionate Johnson vs. Coleman’s Ekeler and Jaylen Waddle. Mixon is going to get the ball more than Ekeler and Waddle combined, and though Waddle will get more yards per touch, Diontae will swoop in with 7 catches for 70 yards and a few first downs to put Oliver over the top. The one way I see Coleman winning is if Kamara and DJ Moore have huge games while Oliver’s WR duo Evans and Cooper fail to meet expectation. For the record, I assume Evans will have a TD and Cooper will get enough targets to shake out double-digit points, meaning Oliver will win this one, and not necessarily tight. I could see it being a 20-point margin in Oliver’s favor.
Fart69 vs. It Is What It Is
Sleeper is projecting 200 points from each team in this matchup, and while others are close, this is the only matchup where that is the case. That’s meaningless, of course, and my gut reaction to looking at the lineups is that Brian will absolutely dominate. The saving grace for Shelby is that Kyler’s matchup is fucking awesome and Dak’s matchup fucking sucks. This is the hard-hitting analysis you show up for, and I’m thrilled to be so effusively shattering your expectations. But even if Kyler goes for 50, Shelby has to withstand the 60-floor/100-ceiling of Brian’s RB trio, whichever three he settles on. No matter what happens, I’m going to have fun watching Shelby’s three Cardinals IDPs. If it works, it works. If it doesn’t, it’s hilarious. To keep the fantasy gods interested in this one, I am going to insist that Brian will win by 50 points minimum.
JCor413 vs. Slut Dragons
If Corey doesn’t start Jameis, he’s really not trying to win, so Kennedy might as well see what he has in this Bengal trifecta. Kennedy has the edge everywhere but WR. FLEX is probably a wash, though Kennedy’s RBs have the ceiling advantage over Corey’s misfit WRs. Corey has a massive edge in IDP. Corey hasn’t set his lineup yet, clearly, because for one, Jameis is still on the bench and so is Gronk. Corey absolutely has to start Gronk against this garbage Falcons defense as opposed to keeping Pitts in against Lavonte and Devin White. But just because Corey will start Josh Allen and Allen will put up another measly 20 or so points, I’m thinking Kennedy wins this one by 10-20.
Kermit Mahomes vs. Better Luck Next Year
For two reasons, Cameron will lose. For one, it’s technically a grudge match. Because Cameron scored the most points in the melee and Tim scored the fewest, they were retroactively matched up against one another for Week 1. Now Tim gets to flip the script with the Packers playing a Lions defense that simply doesn’t have the horses to run with Green Bay, especially with the Lions best CB out for the year with… maybe an Achilles? Anyway, as much as Aaron Rodgers sucks, he’s selfish, and selfish people love doing things just to prove the haters wrong. So Rodgers will lead all players in FP this week, and Adams will be up there as well. Tonyan will get some endzone action. Tim, start Kareem Hunt at RB go get some legitimate WRs to play in your flex spots. Go get fucking Sammy Watkins, who isn’t all that legit but will get volume in a revenge game against the Chiefs. EMBRACE THE REVENGE GAME NARRATIVE. TAKE WHAT IS YOURS. I recommend you start your boy Boyd and drop one of your piece of shit players for Watkins. Do it, Tim. Fucking prove the haters wrong and whoop Cameron’s dad-bod ass.
SimpleFunClassicAdventure vs. Trubisky’s Revenge
Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts will not be proving any haters wrong this week. Next Monday, the main headline is going to be something along the lines of “Are We Witnessing the Burst of Dual Threat QB Bubble?” (I don’t pretend to be good at headlines.) I am expecting the Chiefs to obliterate the Ravens and for Lamar to turn the ball over four time trying to comeback. Honestly, rewind that sentence back and fill-in the parallel information for Hurts. This matchup is going to suck except for Hockenson vs. Kittle. I think Hock and Kit will have 20 points apiece and probably lead these teams in scoring. I will not be investing any energy in this stinkpile of rot. Mercy.
That said, I’m giving Sean the slight edge because Spencer is flexing RBs in bad matchups. If Sean subbed in something more appealing for Mike Davis, I’d give him the clean edge.
Good luck, everyone. Trade me some good players already!
