I’ll cut right to it. In order to be a good team, you ideally want to have these things:
1 Top-12 QB
2 Top-24 RBs
3 Top-36 WRs
Mathematically, each of us can have these things. It would require all of us drafting as a collective, or you’d have to let me design a 12-team trade to spread the wealth. Communism doesn’t have much place in fantasy football. You don’t even really have a team. You have an assembly of individuals. In some cases, you have the stack, the QB/WR stack that doubles your TDs, or the QB/RB stack that gives you basically all the offense’s points. But for the most part, you’re hoping for the confluence of a thousand events to work in your favor. It’s why DraftKings (not a sponsor) made so much goddamn money overnight. The game doesn’t have to be rigged if the odds are inconsequential.
All of this is to say that these rankings don’t mean shit unless they do.
I’m going from bottom to top because it’s easier.
12. Slut Dragons (Kennedy)
Say it ain’t Joe, bro. Tell me your starting QB isn’t this semi-sophomore who hasn’t played since tearing his ACL nine months ago, who on top of that hasn’t played well at QB outside of one season in college with literally the most stacked single-season WR corps maybe in college history. Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase, Terrace Marshall. Not to mention Clyde Edwards-Helaire, not to mention wunderkind OC Joe Brady. I hate it, man. I hate it so much.
Then again, in fantasy football, volume is king. The Bengals are still bad. Their defense is a broken saloon door, and the offensive line can’t create space for Mixon to move. Burrow will probably throw the ball 40+ times per game again. But how did that work out last season? Burrow had two games of 30+ points, both against the Browns in the first seven weeks, i.e., before the Browns jelled. His other games: 15, 19, 19, -1, 17, 26, 12, 16. Umm… Nah.
So let’s see if he makes it up in other areas.
2 top-24 RBs, check: Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift
Maybe Damien Harris cracks the top-24, but it’s hard to imagine the Patriots doing anything predictable. It would be hard to win that way. Kenny Gainwell is a very sneaky potential top-24, as he has all the requisite ability to usurp Boston Scott and then Miles Sanders in Philly. Won’t happen soon, but toward playoff time…?
3 top-36 WRs, maybe: Allen Robinson and some dice throws
Either Tee Higgins or JaMarr Chase should crack the top 36. Kenny Golladay has the name, but he has yet to practice in full, and his offense is a nightmare. I think Kennedy recognized this deficit in the draft and took a lot of shots on young WRs. We’re looking at Michael Gallup, Terrace Marshall, and Rondale Moore. The problem with taking so many not-yet stars is that you don’t leave yourself any roster flexibility to play waivers, which you’ll desperately need if you’re streaming QBs.
(Maybe you don’t think you’re streaming QBs, fine. But as an aside here, if you were to stream QBs, you want to be a week ahead of the waiver wire, meaning you’re holding two QBs at all times, one for this week and one for next. The ultimate goal of streaming is to stumble into an everyweek starter, but it takes at least a month to have that kind of confidence.)
Kennedy has Travis Kelce, and we know what that’s worth. He has Hot Rod kicking, so he has stability in two spots most teams lack. The IDPs don’t give me a lot of confidence, but they are all good players who have been reliable fantasy pieces for at least a couple years.
DeForest Buckner is an under-the-radar star. Interior linemen usually don’t give you weekly consistency, but Buckner pretty much hits five points every week, and then he throws in a 15-pointer almost every other week.
I think 120 tackles is cut-off for a fantasy LB. Eric Kendricks and Joe Schobert get there every year.
The piece I think does nothing for you is Vonn Bell. Bell is a well-rounded safety who flirts with double-digits often, but to start the season, I’d rather see a DB whose ceiling is DB1. To be fair, the clear DB1 threats went very quickly this year.
11. Trubisky’s Revenge (Spencer)
It’s not your fault (technically). It’s Jalen Hurts. Dude just isn’t good at throwing footballs. “But what about Lamar?” Fuck you, you bitch. For one thing, Lamar is better at throwing than Hurts, you little figment-of-my-subconscious bitch, and for another, Lamar is magic. Jalen Hurts, not magic. Hurts is going to feel the pain that all these other non-Lamar running QBs feel, and it’s literally the pain of taking too-hard hits too many times. It happened to Russ early on. It happened to Kyler last year. Lesser QBs were completely done in by taking the wrong hits. Someone like Hurts with basically no job security, guess what he’ll do for that extra yard: he’ll put his body on the line. Unlike Kyler and Russ and even like an Andrew Luck or a Mahomes, if Hurts loses that rushing upside, it’s fucking over.
So you need a QB. Otherwise, let’s see what we’ve got:
2 Top-24 RBs, check: Zeke and James RB1szn
The Jags are bad. They are going to play Carlos Hyde too much too soon. Eventually, this will work in Robinson’s favor, as he’ll be the only game in town after about Week 4.
3 Top-36 WRs, maybe: Diggs, Beckham, and Sutton definitely have that upside. Each sits at the top of his team’s depth chart. Spe spent the #1 waiver priority on Juju. He lacks that upside now, but if Diontae Johnson goes down, Juju becomes a very real threat to lead the Steelers in targets. If Michael Thomas returns to top-form in time for our playoffs, then just one of OBJ, Sutton, or Juju (or a dark horse waiver dude down the road) has to hit for this lineup to shine.
Spencer might make up for his deficit at QB by having potential #1s at TE, DL, and LB. Regardless of whether any actually end up #1 season-long, George Kittle, Danielle Hunter, and Devin White are going to have those boom-games that win Spe his matchup.
The saving grace with Hurts is getting to play Atlanta Week 1. It buys Spencer a week, gives him real data to find a second QB option for Week 2. If I’m Spe, I’m planning on playing Hurts Week 1 against ATL, benching him Week 2 against SF, then starting him Week 3 in Dallas, then benching him for Week 4 against KC… you’re basically streaming QB, which is fine. It just comes with a lot more downside than finding a ride-or-die everyweek starter.
10. Better Luck Next Year (Tim)
First off, stacking Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Robert Tonyan is brilliant. It looks like too-heavy investment, like not enough diversity, eggs, baskets, whatever. But mathemtcially, this is the type of strategy that pays off. You live or die with one offense, but when you live, you live fucking lavish. You can’t do this with many offenses and get this kind of upside. The only downside is that it seems like last year was the year to capitalize on this. Historically data says the offense will regress, specifically when it comes to passing TDs, which are what made all three of these players so valuable last season: 48 for Rodgers, 18 for Adams, 11 for Tonyan. The offensive line is crap. They have maybe the best LT in the league, but they are starting crap everywhere else, including rookies at C and RG. Alone, neither of these would be problems, but when you put them together, when you consider Rodgers’ relationship with this team on top of it, it doesn’t look good.
Then again, Tim has pivots off of Rodgers and Tonyan (Tannehill and Hooper), and if the offense as a whole is bad, Adams is probably getting even more targets and remaining stable as a top WR.
A notion I’m buying into is that you don’t want to be average in this game. You want the volatility to blow games wide open, even if the downside is finishing dead last. So it’s not a huge concern.
A huge concern is this RB room: Kareem Hunt, Raheem Mostert, James Conner, Tony Pollard, Phillip Lindsay. This is not the volatility to blow games wide open. These are timeshares and backups, and in some cases, we’re not sure which. It’s not dire (nothing is), but you either need Mostert to stay healthy (not likely) or you need one of Nick Chubb, Chase Edmonds, or Zeke to get hurt (maybe, but ugh). Lindsay should seize the reigns of that Texans’ job, but when he seized the reigns in Denver, he couldn’t hold up against that much punishment.
Tim’s working with Adams and another top-10 WR in Calvin Ridley. Tyler Boyd could find himself inside the top-36, but it won’t be sexy. It’ll be a lot of eight catches for 80 yards and a couple first downs type games. Mecole Hardman is immaterial.
The K and IDPs, though, pretty good. Myers is attached to a good offense and a coach who doesn’t go for it on 4th if he doesn’t have to. Darius Leonard is IDP1 material. Jabrill Peppers is DB1 material. Deion Jones finally has a legitimate defensive coordinator to make use of his 4.4 wheels. Last year, Raheem Morris took over and started sending Jones on blitzes up the middle and if he’d been able to do it all year, Jones would have challenged Devin White’s production. As a whole, Atlanta’s defense can’t make that happen, but Jones has potential for those massive weeks. Cam Jordan… I don’t love it. He’s real old, and the Saints’ secondary is thin enough that QBs will have open receivers before Jordan can get home.
This team is a bet on Green Bay, which is a bet a lot of people are making right now, which usually means it’s a bad bet.
9. JCor413
For the most part, this team is beautiful.
Josh Allen is a top-5 QB, and the thing about top-5 QBs in this game is that they score significantly more than QB7 and on. Even if Allen comes down a notch from last season, he’ll probably average about three or four points per game more than all but a handful of QBs. That gives you cushion if your other positions aren’t as strong.
Tyreek and Nuk are top-5 (realistically I could drop Nuk more toward top-10) WRs, which far exceeds the three-top-36 criteria. And as far as #3 goes, I think Corey Davis find himself well inside that threshold. I don’t like DJ Chark or Cole Beasley at all. Like, at all. Rather have Gabe Davis to pair with Allen than the Beasles. Parris Campbell is a really sneaky threat to lead the Colts in fantasy points, which makes him a threat to squeeze into the top-36, as well.
Kyle Pitts is going to be a stud TE because he’s actually going to play WR. The way I’ve framed this whole rookie TE going in the third round is even though you wouldn’t take a rookie WR that high, you would if he were eligible at TE. It’s the kind of cheating we reward. And I love the Gronk pick. I don’t see why he won’t score a bunch of TDs Could you start Pitts and Gronk? In a pinch, sure. But don’t water down the TE cheat code by wasting a flex spot on a TE. Corey Davis over Gronk every day.
The K and IDPs are the stuff chef’s kiss their fingers for. Cunningham has led the league in tackles. Devin Bush has Devin White potential (they were basically drafted back-to-back in the first round), Myles Garret is the likely DL1, and Marlon Humphrey (aka Fruit Punch) had double-digit points in all but four games last year.
The reason for the relatively low ranking is simple: Corey has one RB, and it’s Myles Gaskin. (Apologies to USF legend Marlon Mack.) Don’t misunderstand: Myles Gaskin is good. And having two guys named Myles, that’s great. But Myles Gaskin is in a tough spot. When the Dolphins leaned on him, he produced, but he didn’t do as much as we might remember. He did have that one 33-point game, but otherwise he was capped at 16. Again, this was with significant usage, like 22 touches per game. Every game Gaskin plays will be good enough for Corey, but what does Corey do if Gaskin goes down?
I originally had Corey ranked lower. The RB situation is bleak, but other people are up against worse odds. While there won’t be a lot of startable RBs in free agency, there will be enough for Corey to get something good enough. The rest of the team is just so stacked. But you have to be diligent in finding that reliable second option.
8. Fart69
Brian doesn’t technically need a body, but I’ve placed him here because he has the missing pieces for Corey and Tim. I wish Brian had just drafted WRs, since Tim and Corey’s WRs are too good to trade for anything Brian’s hawking. Also Brian is one WR injury away from needing a body.
Five top-24 RBs is one too many. Technically, it’s two too many, but Brian had the luxury of getting either a fourth starting WR or a fourth starting RB. He was going to be super deep and unstoppable. But something happened. I see where he was going with this, maybe. Maybe he withstands RB injuries. He never has to even look at free agency. It would take three injuries to get him nervous about his RB situation. On the flip side, he has trade capital and the flexibility to use it, which is a luxury I don’t think any of us have. The longer he holds these five, the more valuable they all get because at least two other teams already need them. The number of teams that need RBs only grows as the season goes along. Brian doesn’t have to guess which WRs will be good. He’ll have a pretty nice selection, but I’d argue that unless he’s looking at a specific WR he missed (of which there are very few), he had more options during the draft.
What I really believe is that Brian thought CeeDee Lamb (or maybe Lamar?) would drop to the 2-3 turn, and when he didn’t, Brian may have tilted. The best WRs left at that point were the Coopers, which just isn’t sexy enough. In retrospect, Brian should have drafted Amari to pair with Dak. At pick 24, Josh Jacobs was probably the most valuable player on the board. It could be that at pick 16, Brian thought CEH was the most valuable player on the board (or he just doesn’t like Ridley or AJ Brown or Nuk).
In fantasy, you’ve gotta embrace entropy if you want enjoy yourself. I think Brian’s team is weird and kind of bad right now, but I also think he’s built something that will last longer than some of the hotness you’ll see closer to the top.
Dak is a better QB than half of us have.
Godwin and Woods feel like 1,000-yard receivers.
Logan Thomas was a relative steal. While he probably won’t be great, he probably will be good enough that Brian won’t have to think about it (which, to me, is the goal).
I don’t like punting, and I think Brian punted his IDPs. Martinez is fine, but had Brian spent the 2-3 turn on WRs, he would have had an opening to take an elite IDP after Dak at 4-5. Myles Garrett, Chase Young, Roquan Smith, Derwin James. Dudes with potential to outscore Robert Woods at a position where replacement level players sometimes don’t score anything.
As it stands, I don’t even want to mention Brian’s periphery players because I don’t think they’ll go anywhere. But if Brian gets 70 points from his starting RBs each week, make it 100 when you throw Dak’s points in, it won’t really matter who the other eight starters are.
Dammit, Brian. You actually did draft a good team, and you forced me to work to see it. Take your trophy and get outta here. I’m not moving you up the rankings.
There are seven teams I feel good about. I don’t see glaring issues. I’ll talk about some stuff, I’ll rank us because I don’t think our teams are equally good, but keeping in mind that it’s all a bunch of bouncing balls, I don’t have the compunction (wut) to split us into separate groups.
7. VontaeMack no matter what (Doak)
I’m willing to be wrong on this, but I think you need serious juice at QB to make a run at the championship, and I don’t think I have that. I also don’t know how I’ll get it. I’ll be honest: I thought Russell Wilson would make it to my 3rd pick. I was going to pair him with Metcalf and crowd surf into infinity. When he went, I was like, Oh shit, maybe I will draft Herbert to stack with Keenan. Nope. Then I chickened out on Dak. Plain and simple: I wanted Dak bad, and the injury scared me off. I regret it now that I’m stuck with Stafford.
I like Stafford a lot, but his schedule sucks and I have this nagging notion that Sean McVay is on the verge of total burnout. If the running game doesn’t work the way it’s supposed to, Stafford essentially has what he had in Detroit. I got to the point looking at his schedule the other day that I thought about just riding the 49ers QBs so that I didn’t have to suffer directly because of my precious boy.
2 top-24 RBs, check?
I think Najee, Gus, and Javonte will all be top-24s this season, but I haven’t counted how many RBs I see that way. It could be 30 for all I know (but it’s probably not since I’m already counting out the Jets, Texans, Cardinals, and probably Bucs and Pats). Anyway, I feel good, but I can see how other people would look at this group and think it’s wishcasting with neither Gus nor Javonte likely to get a true starter’s worth of work.
3 top-36 WRs, almost check: DK and Keenan are in, for sure, but neither screams top-5 or even top-10 on the surface. Each have been top-10 before, so I feel good.
I also feel good about Marquez Callaway, and not just for the first half. I think Callaway is just plain good. The early-season volume-palooza will be a boon, for sure, but even when (if?) Michael Thomas comes back, Callaway will still start, still play almost all the snaps, still have Jameis’s attention, especially at that point going against weaker corners after having held his own against #1s. I’m holding out hope that either Elijah Moore or Bryan Edwards breaks out, but I feel like it’s a year too early for top-36 stuff from the rookie, and I don’t trust Gruden to do anything the way that makes sense.
I guess I was in the perfect spot to grab Mark Andrews. I think he was the easy #4 choice behind Kelce, Kittle, and Waller, but I can understand why he wasn’t picked sooner. I guess I can thank all the extra QB action, even though it left me with Stafford? What I think people don’t realize about Andrews is how ahead of the curve he is at his position. Typically TEs don’t produce until year three. Andrews broke out in his rookie year and then became TE3 in his second year. With the Ravens’ WR corps as bad as its ever been, I’m buying Andrews to finally eclipse 100 targets and possibly upset one of the consensus top-3 (granted, Hockenson might upset, too, and cause Andrews to go back to #4, with one of Kelce or Waller falling to fifth or lower; yeah, I said it).
Justin Tucker, Derwin James, do I even need to explain?
I’m not crazy about my LBs, and I’m not crazy about the state of my bench. But Myles Jack and CJ Mosley will play every snap, and that’s what I look for in an IDP. Montez Sweat is firmly on the hot seat, but it’s not for lack of talent. He has superhero physical traits. He’s maybe the tallest, fastest pass-rusher in the league. He would have been a top-5 pick in his draft except that doctors misdiagnosed him with a career-threatening heart condition.
I have a couple roster spots to play with (currently Ty Johnson and Lev Bell, barf emoji), but for the most part I’m committed to letting the early season play out.
6. Steampunk Overlord (Evan)
Top-12 QB, check. All signs point to Justin Herbert improving in year two. My reservation with this is crowd noise, especially for away games. Obviously I don’t care too much. I believe in Keenan Allen because I believe in Justin Herbert. But still, the possibility remains that some of these young QBs who took the leap in 2020 regress in a major way in 2021.
2 top-24 RBs, check? On the surface, Saquon and Sanders (super fun backfield, throwback to their days at Penn State) should be auto-starts every week, regardless of matchup. I have issues giving them the official checkmark. While Saquon is the best, his offense is close to the worst. Then again, bad offenses can be good for their best players, fantasy-wise, because the best player just gets insane volume. Sanders is in an almost perfect position: his offensive line should be excellent, and rushing QBs raise the floor of their RBs because defenses can’t blitz the run. The RB gets the equivalent of a head-start on the play, usually making it to or through the line before first-contact. So I have them as top-24 backs. I have neither Bills back (Evan owns both Moss and Singletary) in the top-24. It’s more likely they both finish around RB30 than it is one of them takes the job. They’re completely complimentary. Moss is slow and strong. Singletary is fast and, well the thing is, Singletary isn’t weak, per se; his contact balance is incredible for his size, but he can’t push a pile—in that way he’s weak. They can both pass protect and catch. Singletary is probably better at both of the latter skills. It’s the worst kind of split because neither is busting bad enough to be dropped, and neither is likely to have a boom week.
3 top-36 WRs, nope. You have an easy two in Lockett and Jefferson, but I don’t see either as an elite guy. Maybe top-12, but like literally 11 and 12. Then you’re hoping for either DeVonta Smith or Nelson Agholor to make it, which is possible. Smith is an elite route-runner. Agholor can get over the top of any defense. But Jalen Hurts can’t throw, and Agholor can’t catch. So it’s going to be frustrating.
So that flex spot is a crap shoot to start the year. You’re looking at Singletary, Moss, Smith, and Agholor. I think every week the problem resets because we won’t see consistent enough production to lean on one. Smith feels like the obvious choice, but then you’re capping your upside in some sense by starting two pieces of a probably mediocre Eagles’ offense.
And the TE spot isn’t much better. Gesicki has upside, and whatever random TE Evan picks up tomorrow probably has upside—I really liked the Everett pickup and think you should go back. But this is the problem of waiting on TE. You have to make a case for any option. And then you second-guess. It’s hell.
I do want to say here that while I’m pooping on these roster pieces a little bit, Evan got great value on most of them. Given he went in without a 2nd round pick, he did better than most of us putting something together.
I love Lavonte and Chase Young. No problems there. I don’t like stacking Cowboys’ LBs, even if you’re taking advantage of the DB-eligible LB in Keanu (love me some Keanu in general). There is a very thin sliver of opportunity for two LBs to score like fantasy starters, and it varies from game to game which guy will be the guy. In the case of the Cowboys, it’s even worse because they have four LBs and even though you probably have the best two, you don’t really know how they’ll rotate. I’m intrigued but skeptical.
5. It Is What It Is (Shelby)
Before I even get into it, it doesn’t make sense for Shelby to be ranked here. She didn’t have a first pick, and her best players aren’t as good as everyone else’s. I’m really not sure how we got here. I look at this roster and see a pretty stable floor, I guess.
Kyler Murray was QB1 for most of last year. The Cardinals upgraded the line, the WRs, and I think James Conner is an improvement over Kenyan Drake. Murray should be back to early 2020 form. 35 points from your QB takes pressure off the other starters.
2 top-24 RBs, nope. Chris Carson is legit, but even he’s on the low-end of the 24. Chase Edmonds is on the cusp. If I had to draw a hard line, he’d be out. But he’s fast, he’s a skilled receiver, and he can (*hesitates*) run between the tackles. The Cardinals’ likely plan with Edmonds is to sign him long-term and then give out a one-year deal to the top available power back every summer. The problem for fantasy is that Edmonds is a tweener. He gets a high yards-per-touch but only about ten touches. He scores enough fantasy points to be on a roster, but not so many that you can comfortably start him or get anything for him in trade. Then again, the Cardinals have only featured him twice, two total games where he got more than 20 carries. The first time, he had 37 FP, but then he got hurt during the next week’s game. The second time, a full year later, he got 10 FP, but he stayed healthy all year following. So it’s interesting. Kenyan Drake is not interesting, and the Raiders seem to be trying out every RB out there. But if Jacobs gets hurt and Drake starts—whoever starts for Gruden—will get the ball A LOT.
You don’t see a lot of teams with six IDPs. You see exactly one, as a matter of fact. I don’t see the point, but I think it’ll be fun if you find your year-long starters in this bunch. It’ll definitely make me rethink taking lottery IDPs instead of lottery WRs.
I made faces during the Noah Fant pick. It was mostly because of how many better prospects were available. At a glance, we’re talking Myles Garrett, Roquan Smith, and Lavonte. I’m not saying they’ll be better. I’m assuming they are, but I’m mostly saying you would be happier seeing them in your lineup than Fant. (The potential Watt/Garrett combo has me straight-up drooling.) And then you get Hunter Henry in the last round, who’s probably a better bet to finish as a top-10 TE (whatever that’s worth).
3 top-36 WRs, check. AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Deebo Samuel, and Jarvis Landry have finished in the top-36 in the past two seasons. The combo of AJ and Julio is something. It could work? The Titans have a very narrow offensive plan. They will probably give it to one of those two or Henry on 85% of plays. It definitely makes one of them easy to trade if you get impulse, which could be a luxury. If fantasy football is any indication, the country is sleeping on Deebo Samuel. Count on Kyle Shanahan to realize this and use it to his advantage. The thing about this 49ers’ offense is that any player could go for 150 yards and 2 TDs in a given week. Deebo might actually be the most likely since he’ll draw the weakest defender of the big three. I’m just now realizing Hollywood Brown is on this team. He also finished top-36 last year. While he feels like a boom-bust De’Sean Jackson guy, his game log looks more like Jarvis Landry’s. He’s one of two trusted targets in the Ravens’ passing attack, so he gets reliable volume and occasionally that speed will make for a huge week in fantasy.
Daniel Carlson is such a Gruden kicker. I can’t remember where I heard it, but someone mentioned how Carlson’s leg is like a pendulum, and I can’t get it out of my mind. It was something like, That pendulum leg of his makes these 50-yarders look effortless, and I just believed it and as a result believe in Carlson to bang 50s every week and be a solid starter.
4. Scary Terry… Bitch (Coleman)
Well, we already know he has the QB I wanted, so check. I don’t see Russ having some amazing year, but if he just does what he always does, he’s a top-5 QB.
2 top-24 RBs, check. Kamara’s top-5 and Ekeler’s arguably top-15. And Ekeler is now playing in the same style offense as Kamara. Neither is like a 25-carry dude just racking up points in fourth-quarter blowouts, but both are going to see high yards-per-touch combined with a lot of touches. Both are more useful at the goal line than casual fans have caught up to. We still think teams are just burying 230-lb. backs in behind 330-lb. guards, but that’s not really the way anymore. New-school offenses are bringing in dual-threat backs who could take a handoff or catch a little playaction leak-out thing (I forget the name of it, but it’s basically a play where the QB fakes the hand-off but the RB is already in a route so either he or the TE just downfield from him is open as soon as the QB turns his head. It’s not gospel, but it’s worth noting that Ekeler isn’t like a non-threat to score TDs just because he’s not “goal-line” sized.
3 top-36 WRs, check. McLaurin, Aiyuk, and DJ Moore are in, and Jaylen Waddle is sneaky. Coleman kind of took the sneakiness out of it by taking him in the fifth, but fuck it, man; you want that dude that may be the fastest dude in the league, go get that dude. I’m not intrigued by the Bateman pick, but he’s a free square sitting in your IR until you need space, and there’s no shame in taking shots on first-round WRs with late-keeper potential.
Dallas Goedert at TE is not nearly as solid as we thought he would be when Ertz was on the block, but here’s the thing about QBs who can’t throw; you don’t get to be a professional QB without being able to throw to guys right in front of you, and that’s where Goedert will be most plays. It’s an underrated and possibly underutilized tactic of the Chiefs’ offense. Kelce can get open anywhere, but where you see it most often is directly in front of Mahomes. You draw a line parallel to the sideline, pointing from Mahomes towards the endzone, and that’s where you see Travis Kelce on third downs. The player comps don’t hold up, but situationally, Goedert and Hurts can move in sync and make that stuff happen. In a points per first down league, Goedert has sneaky value.
(Didn’t expect 150 words on Goedert but here we are.)
Coleman finds himself outside the top three in the post-draft rankings because of his back-half (or back-end, which both sound stupid; can someone help me brand these things?). And I don’t hate it; I just think it’s sub-optimal to start two DLs as opposed to two LBs. But versatility is good. Still, I don’t think these IDPs (Barrett, Warner, Poyer, Burns) have the upside of some other IDP groups. Poyer is solid, gets a bunch of tackles. Barrett could lead the league in sacks, so that’s good. Warner typically doesn’t dominate in fantasy the way he does in reality, and it’s somewhat similar to Jalen Ramsey not being a fantasy option. Defenses avoid Warner, especially in the passing game. The 49ers’ secondary is worse than ever, so I don’t see that changing. Brian Burns is my guy, but the Panthers’ defense hasn’t unlocked him yet. It’s year three, so this could be the year. This IDP group has a chance to be great; I just don’t think that chance is as good as some others in our league.
Jason Sanders led all kickers in points last year, so why not take him basically for free?
3. SimpleFunClassicAdventure (Sean)
Top-12 QB, check. Lamar is a consistent threat for QB1. He combines average QB production with average RB production and becomes an elite QB. At his best, he essentially adds an extra player to your starting lineup. I have bad vibes about Baltimore, but I think they’re limited to the early season. The offensive line is rebuilt, which is a process that always takes a handful of weeks to jell. They are without a truly dynamic RB (unless it’s Lev Bell). Training camp was a mess. However, they have maybe the second-best head coach behind Belichick. In time, they will figure out how to win games, and it should come as no surprise that the offense runs through Lamar.
2 top-24 RBs, check plus. Dalvin, DMG, and Mike Davis will all start the year putting in top-24 production. I think just odds-wise either DMG or Mike Davis will fall off, but that’s only a hunch and not even one I have any real conviction about. Backups like Nyheim Hines and AJ Dillon are pretty worthless right now, but they are worth hanging onto until you absolutely need the roster spot.
3 top-36 WRs, check? Claypool, Jeudy, and Robby Anderson should realistically have 1,000-yard seasons. I can see Claypool falling short of that yardage but making up for it in TDs. While this crew looks just so-so on paper, I think we need to view Claypool and Jeudy as the superstars they will be because that transformation is going to take place this season. Sean has backups Mooney, Tyrell, and Mike Williams, none of whom are important to me because even though they might crack the top-36, you can’t reasonably start any of them over the three WRs above or the three RBs above that. The bane of Sean’s existence is going to be always having one solid starter on his bench. The fantasy gods love making us feel dumb for carrying an extra starter.
Sean got steal after steal in the middle rounds, and TJ Hockenson might finish with more points than any of these WRs. The reasonable projection is 1,000 yards (which means a shit-load of first downs), and if he manages double-digit touchdowns, Hockenson is going to score 200 fantasy points. That would have put him in the top-35 non-QBs any of the last few seasons.
And then the back-half is just money. Butker, Donald, and Wagner have each finished #1 at their position, and they’re all consistently in the top-5 range. Jessie Bates is a top-10 DB with top-5 upside. Two DBs is no way to play, but if it’s how you choose between Bates and Minkah before finding your second LB in free agency, awesome.
2. Kermit Mahomes (Cameron)
Top-12 QB, check plus. Mahomes is probably #1 seeing as this will be a revenge tour after just a brutal Super Bowl loss that wasn’t even his fault but that he pins on himself anyway.
2 top-24 RBs, no. In fact, Cameron should probably be ranked behind Sean for this, but I think Mahomes is so much of a surer thing than Lamar that I had to give deference. But Cameron does have Derrick Henry, who has the playaction cheat code (teams won’t sell-out to stop the run because the Titans’ average pass completion eat up twice the chunks as the average Henry carry. We don’t need more than one starting RB if we have WRs, which is good since I don’t see RoJo, Lenny, or Melvin Gordon as potential top-24 backs.
3 top-36 WRs, check plus. Cameron needs four to start ahead of those RBs, and he has them in Lamb, Kupp, Thielen, and AB. That’s not the sexiest group, but it is a bunch of guys who get open and score TDs. Cameron also has a bench of Jakobi Meyers, Leviska Shenault, and Henry Ruggs, each of whom could be the top WR in his respective offense. I don’t really believe that about Ruggs, but he is a starter with insane wheels.
This is a master class in drafting, granted it’s buoyed by two extra picks, one of them a first-rounder. Spending that extra first on Mahomes was sub-optimal, but I like that you spent a luxury pick on a luxury. But this sequencing was beautiful.
Rd 1 – RB
Rd 2 – WR
Rd 3 – WR
Rd 4 – WR
Rd 5 – RB
Rd 6 – RB
Rd 7 – RB
And then recognizing you just weren’t solid at WR, you pound it again in rounds 10 and 11 and then eventually get your free little Patriot WR1 in Meyers. I don’t know why we let you do it, but I bet if we redrafted, it would happen again.
Obviously Waller is an elite TE. For my sake (i.e., Bryan Edwards’ sake), I hope that Gruden is bored of this TE-centric approach and forces Carr to throw it outside the numbers, but I assume Waller’s volume is safe and I will be disappointed when he’s still better than Mark Andrews.
These IDPs are pretty nice to look at. Roquan is a threat to be #1 overall. Khalil Mack was once the best, and he’s not that old. Antoine Winfield officially made the last unflagged taunt until the rule gets reversed. And Nick Bosa is just chilling under the radar. People seem to think he’s a DPOY candidate, so great.
Finally we have Bills’ kicker Tyler Bass, who is probably a wild whiff like most of the Bills’ kickers before him. He had a great rookie year, and yet many kickers who’ve done so have washed out of the league anyway.
1. Summer Smith (Oliver)
Top-12 QB, check. We don’t love Brady’s upside. He probably can’t crack the top six without scoring 40 TDs again. He finished 7th last season, but it was a significant distance from the top four with rushing upside (and that excludes Lamar, who had a pretty weak start to the year and then missed a game in the middle). But Brady will finish inside the top 10 and do it with consistently good numbers.
2 top-24 RBs, check plus? Chubb and Mixon are in; Henderson and Sermon are fringe. Sermon is probably out just because these SF RBs of late usually are. Henderson, I don’t know. I think Sony Michel has an opportunity to take this job, maybe right away. He’s coming in hungry since his contract is up, and the Rams spent a 4th-rounder to get him. That’s not nothing, especially combined.
3 top-36 WRs, check plus. Evans, Amari, Diontae, and Cooks are in. Pittman and Parker are fringe. Cooks doesn’t even need to be in because Oliver doesn’t have to start him over Chubb, Mixon, Evans, Amari, and Diontae. All of these players were faded in offseason fantasy talk, and aside from Chubb, this is what allowed Oliver to get a handful of guys with at least a remote chance of being the #1 at their position—it’s really unlikely, but seeing as any or all should lead their respective teams in fantasy points, there’s no reason to discount their ability to lead the league.
Tyler Higbee has a weak name. It sounds like a bouncehouse come to life. But people seem to think that he’s the Rams’ #3 option in the passing game, and he probably is. That said, he’s going into his sixth year and has yet to really breakout. Blame Jeff Fisher and Jared Goff, maybe. What people are expecting is that without Gerald Everett stealing snaps, Higbee will return to the 90-target ceiling he had just two years ago, when he finished as TE9 and in his final five games alone had over 500 yards. I’m not counting on it, but I’m not counting him out.
Younghoe Koo is the most impressive kicker on his rate of successful onside attempts alone. I wish they counted for something in fantasy, and I kind of think I should just manually add five points to a kicker’s score if he kicks a successful onsider.
I should dock Oliver for starting two DLs, but I can’t be mad at the two he picked. Joey Bosa is one of the highest paid defensive players. JPP would probably have been in the Hall of Fame if he hadn’t blown off his fingers. JPP is so fucking stupid good, and I can’t believe the Bucs got him for a fourth-round pick. He should get paid what the Pats are playing Matt Judon since he does everything Judon does and arguably does it better? Anyway, I love it. I love Patrick Queen, playing that CJ Mosley role that led to Mosley being a top-5 LB for a few years in Baltimore. And I love Jamal Adams because he’s the best safety in the NFL right now, especially for fantasy since he’s about to break the DB sack record after just five years in the league. Glorious.
All right, let’s hand out awards, you fucking millennials.
Weirdest Draft Strategy – Brian
I don’t agree with what you’ve done, but I’ll defend your right to do it. I can’t shake what happened to me a few seasons ago. I can’t remember all the details, but basically I went RB heavy but got a couple stud WRs early to balance it out… All I remember is Keenan Allen went down like Week 1 and my other WR picks didn’t pan out. I spent the entire season trying to add WRs in free agency, ending up with like literally WRs 49 and 50 or some shit. I did not make the playoffs, and I did not have a good time running my team. But if you want a challenge, please, enjoy that hunt.
Worst Draft Pick (too mean?) – Cameron
The back-to-back RoJo/Lenny picks were just too much. I say back-to-back, but they were twenty picks apart, and Cam did snag Roquan Smith between them, so I take back everything and can just delete these words but then that would be editing and I don’t edit the note, so there. But yeah, the RoJo pick should have been Myles Gaskin, and the Lenny pick… you could have taken one of RoJo, Lenny, or Gordon there, but to have all three of these trash bags (in fantasy terms, nothing personal) is just too much waste.
Best Draft Pick (first half) – Sean
I think I mentioned it was Hockenson. I just think he’s going to blow away, like, a full round’s worth of dudes drafted ahead of him and be really hard not to keep next year.
Honorable Mention – Me: I just love my Marquez Callaway pick. I wish I could get some Jameis to pair with it, but I won’t pay Corey’s price. (I don’t know Corey’s price; I just know I won’t pay it.)
Honorable Mention II – Corey: Myles Garrett in the 6th, after where my sixth pick would have been, makes me insanely jealous. Love that dude.
Best Draft Pick (second half)
We’ve got some contenders here.
Hollywood Brown in the 14th – Shelby
Sony Michel in the 14th – Spencer
Michael Gallup in the 14th – Kennedy
Devin Singletary in the 12th – Evan
Shit, Zack Moss in the 10th – Evan
Ryan Tannehill in the 12th – Tim
Leviska Shenault in the 10th – Cameorn
Trevor Lawrence in the 11th – Coleman
Devin Bush in the 11th – Corey
Right now, I’m going with Sony, but Hollywood is a close second. I think Sony winning that Rams’ job will blow away whatever Hollywood might do.
Good shit, everyone.
All right, I’m done. This is too much for any reasonable person to read anyway. So thanks if you are someone who reads this stuff since I know not everyone does, maybe because it’s gotten stale. I don’t know. I don’t really get feedback on this stuff like I used to, which is fine. I wouldn’t say I work hard on it, but it is writing, which is, like, what I feel like I do, my reason for being or whatever. So I appreciate it.
