AUGUST 22 IS THE DEADLINE TO DECLARE YOUR 2021 KEEEPERS
But in the meantime, since I’m thinking about it anyway, I’m going to narrow down choices for each team and do some theorizing as to how we should be choosing keepers. It’s not a how-to or a recommendation. It’s my personal process, and it’s in flux. I advised Sean on who he should keep last year, and it was a huge dud. He could have kept Josh Allen late, and instead I recommended he keep Harrison Butker. It sort of made sense at the time. Allen was garbage in 2019. Smart football people were out on him. Butker was the second-best kicker in the league, kicking for the top offense in the league. He was someone Sean could start every week and not have to think about it. The real flub was more likely keeping AJ Green, but AJ Green felt like an established WR1 for his team, with potential to be a WR1 in fantasy (defined as top-x at a player’s position in an x-team league). Anyway, there’s your disclaimer.
This is also a rankings note. I’m going to go from best keepers to worst, and it’s super subjective. An added layer of subjectivity comes from my round-value assessment (provided in parentheses).
Remember you can check out the whole keeper slate on this Google Sheet. I’ll be changing names to green as people lock in their selections. I don’t want anyone to change their keepers after August 22, but I’ll consider extenuating circumstances (i.e., no bullshit!).
#1 Brian
EK: Jonathan Taylor (Rd 1), D’Andre Swift (Rd 3), CeeDee Lamb (Rd 3)
LK: Antonio Gibson (Rd 2), Jerry Jeudy (Rd 6)
Brian has the best keeper options, especially because he has options. He can withstand injuries heading into the draft. He’s likely keeping Taylor and Gibson because duh, but to expound on that, they are high-volume RBs.
Taylor is a little sketch because the Colts favor a committee approach to their backfield, but dude had a 250-yard game last season. He is the head of the committee and has his rushing volume propped up by his team’s solid defense. You can make a case to keep someone else, but the difference is that Brian can probably get either of them at the 2/3 turn. Taylor will be gone by then.
Gibson is playing Christian McCaffrey’s role in McCaffrey’s old offense. He has the physical strength and the receiving chops. The main reason Gibson isn’t a first-rounder is that he hasn’t proven himself over a full season. Even the best RBs only have like four great fantasy seasons. Get in on the ground floor.
#2 Evan
EK: Justin Herbert (Rd 5), Tyler Lockett (Rd 3)
LK: Justin Jefferson (Rd 2)
Evan is leaning toward Herbert over Lockett, which is surprising but acceptable.
Justin Jefferson is obvious. Even if we believe he’ll regress, we have to honor his role as the top target in an efficient offense and an ascending talent to boot.
Lockett typically finds himself among the top-15 WRs at the end of the season, but he gives you that output in peaks and valleys. He has close to no chance of being the top fantasy WR because Seattle is run-heavy, Russ spreads it out, and DK Metcalf is taking up a lot of targets.
Herbert can finish #1 at his position. He’s not among the top five favorites to do so, but you take the bet on a superstar if you believe in him. Herbert is also a wild card in terms of draft position. I have him as a fifth-rounder, but Evan picks late in the fifth round. The opportunity cost in the early fourth is too much to bear, but do you really want to risk missing Herbert and having to settle for that Hurts/Brady/Stafford tier? Might as well take the stress and guesswork out of it. If you want Lockett bad enough, he’ll probably be available when you pick in the third round anyway, and you won’t feel the weight of what could have been.
#3 Spencer
EK: Stefon Diggs (Rd 1)
LK: Devin White (Rd 5)
Spencer has dropped everyone else, and I’m tempted to be rigid about it so that none of you spam our Sleeper chat with your superfluous drops. Don’t take your boredom out on me! So technically Spencer could keep AJ Brown or Calvin Ridley instead of Diggs, and he could keep Darrell Henderson instead of White.
Diggs should be ranked right next to Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. He’s that good, his QB is that good, and his offense is designed for his success. He should be taken ahead of Brown and Ridley in all formats. We especially like Diggs in Mortydome because he’s the go-to guy when they need first downs. Diggs, Adams, and Hopkins tied for the most first downs among WRs last season.
Devin White is that dude. He’s not great in coverage yet, but he doesn’t need to be for our purposes. He gets enough tackles, sacks, and stuffs to put him in range of being the #1 overall IDP, and I wrote a whole note on that I won’t rehash here.
What Spencer is really doing is what I hope most of us will do. Keep your favorite players. Make your fantasy roster your happy place, even if you aren’t optimizing your scoring. Especially when you’re the reigning champ, do whatever the fuck you want.
#4 Coleman
EK: Terry McLaurin (Rd 3), Russell Wilson (Rd 5)
LK: Brandon Aiyuk (Rd 4), Big Bob Tonyan (Rd 6)
There’s some flexibility here. When in doubt, I go with the round-value. Russell Wilson is tempting as the potential #1 at his position, but Coleman’s draft slot gives him shots at better options in the early third, or he can kick back and roll with Russ again in the fourth or fifth. McLaurin is the only NFL player with a Rick-&-Morty-adjacent nickname (Scary Terry… bitch), and he does pose some threat to finish the year as the top WR. It’s low, but it’s not out of the question. McLaurin will lead his team in targets, and those Fitzmagic targets combined with Scary T’s deep speed should lead to a huge yards-per-catch average and a spike in TDs.
Aiyuk is better than Tonyan in every way unless you believe Tonyan will score 11 TDs again. I believe in Big Bob Tonyan. That said, I would take Aiyuk because he’s a first-round WR and an ascending talent in a very efficient offense. He will be stifled by Kittle, Deebo, and the running game, but he will get the ball in open space and end up with lots of yards and first downs, if not TDs on top of them.
The main thing here is to spend that late keeper on the guy more likely to carry over into the following season. Aiyuk has more potential, and between now and next season, Trey Lance is going to take over as QB. Meanwhile, Big Bob Tonyan’s offense is almost definitely going to lose Aaron Rodgers (granted, Jordan Love might be great?).
Things gets hairy after this, and I debate whether to even stick to ranking people in order. We have two distinct groups: people with too many options, and people with not enough. So I’m actually going to rank them, but I’m going to rank them (us? Since I’m included) within their (our?) separate groups, starting with the Not Enough Options because at least we know they won’t screw it up.
#1 Shelby
EK: Kyler Murray (Rd 3), Justin Tucker (Rd 6)
LK: Budda Baker (Rd 7), Mike Williams (Rd 9), TY Hilton (Rd 12)
(I’m being generous with the MW and TY values. I have no idea where either will go and don’t have faith in either to play more than ten games. I’m also presenting options but as you can see, they aren’t really in contention.)
Kyler Murray: potential #1 overall player, dubbed “The Future” per Shelby’s Sleeper nicknames.
Budda Baker: you don’t want to go all in on the Cardinals, but you work with what you have. DBs are maybe the least valuable position, but having the potential #1 never hurts.
#2 Kennedy
EK: Allen Robinson (Rd 3), Myles Garret (Rd 5), Aaron Rodgers (Rd 6)
LK: Tee Higgins (Rd 5), Blake Martinez (Rd 8), Jessie Bates (Rd 9)
(At this point, I’m including the extra names to give you some idea of where these players’ could be valued. Our league settings are too atypical for Sleeper’s ADP algorithm, and so you’re kind of on your own when we get past the fourth round.)
Allen Robinson is the only realistic option. He’s consistently a threat to be the #1 at his position, but he has shit QBs. Andy Dalton helped AJ Green’s career; I’ll leave it at that. And even with zero NFL experience, Justin Fields might be the best QB Robinson has ever had.
Tee Higgins is starting for the Bengals, who could lead the league in passing attempts. Their offensive line sucks, and their defense sucks. The knock on Higgins is that he could finish third or fourth in targets on his own team. He could also finish first. I’d rather take that wide range of outcomes than settle for Blake Martinez, even if he is a locked-in top-10 LB. Higgins is Ryan Gosling; Martinez is James Marsden (both in The Notebook and in their careers). I think the choice is clear.
#3 Cameron
EK: Darren Waller (Rd 2), Kareem Hunt (Rd 4)
LK: Damien Harris (Rd 5), Antonio Brown (Rd ?)
Waller’s hype has gone so out of control that the consensus has him ranked above George Kittle. FOH with that, but Waller is very clearly the third TE in a game where the, like, eighth TE is a pile of socks soaked in gasoline.
Harris vs. Mr. Big Chest might be a legitimate debate. Harris starts at RB, which is essential, but he starts for the Patriots, who may have created the concept of RBBC. Harris doesn’t have to lose his starting job to become irrelevant in fantasy. All he has to do is cede touches to three other RBs every single game, and that’s likely what will happen. I don’t want Cameron to keep Antonio Brown. Brown has ridiculous value in the mid-to-late rounds, even if you give him the obligatory Bucs bump in our league. He might lead the Bucs in targets. He is more talented and more prolific than Evans or Godwin. I hate that I’m pumping him up, but my hubris demands that it’s more important to call this shot than it is to steal AB deep in the draft. The only problem is, Where’s his penis? If his penis is in his pants, we’re golden. If we don’t know where his penis is, then we might not see him play football again. It’s worse than Josh Gordon. At least with Josh Gordon, we knew he’d probably get high. We said, You know what, I know it’s dumb, but maybe he’ll finally get a proper detox/mask situation so he can get high and still play football (as I suspect a ton of players do). The worst that could happen is he gets high. With Antonio Brown, you’re attaching yourself to grosser, weirder stuff, and maybe it’s just more worth it to take Tyler Boyd, whose penis is always in his pants when it’s supposed to be.
#4 Tim
EK: Darius Leonard (Rd 5), Philip Lindsay (Rd 9), Will Fuller (Rd 11)
LK: Younghoe Koo (Rd 9), Mike Gesicki (Rd 12), Cam Newton (Rd 15)
It’s real gross—and somehow not the worst in this group. You might notice I’ve valued the best IDPs in the fifth round. I would take some of them in the fourth round, but I believe I would be reaching if I’m taking them over the RBs and WRs available. I’d do it, but I’d consciously accept the risk before doing it. I’m not sitting here like, Ohp, Darius Leonard, lock and load that LB who’ll outscore your flex guys each week... I’m committed, but I’m nervous.
Leonard is in a small group of elite IDPs, along with TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Devin White, Roquan Smith, and Jamal Adams (mayyybe Derwin James, but he’s gotta play football). You could argue Lavonte, but I figure it’ll be more of an either-or situation between him and White in half of these games.
Koo is kind of a darling pick—I just think he’s cool af—but he did lead all kickers in scoring last year. He kicks in a dome, so he doesn’t have the same level of variance as a Harrison Butker—fine, I’m making the Butker mistake again, but I warned you ahead of time my process wouldn’t change just because the outcomes weren’t favorable. I just don’t see how you could take a TE whose ceiling is, like, seventh or a QB who will probably lose his job (after at least one 40-point week, but still) over potentially the top player at his position, even if the position is the least important, least predictable, etc., etc.
#5 Oliver
EK: Jamal Adams (Rd 6)
LK: Michael Gallup (Rd 10), Jarvis Landry (Rd 8), Noah Fant (Rd 11)
(Fant’s value—and Gesicki’s before him—are influenced by my inclination to punt TE if I don’t get one of the top five or six guys.)
(Also, Oliver would technically be ranked last out of all of us, so this is kind of a win.)
Jamal Adams is the only DB I see as a threat to lead all IDPs in scoring, which could make him the Travis Kelce of DBs, giving you such an advantage in one spot that it actually tilts the whole matchup slightly in your favor. That said, it sucks when your best keeper is someone you could reach for in the fifth round, especially coming off a season when you had the most draft capital in league history.
Michael Gallup vs. Jarvis Landry vs. Noah Fant is a legitimate debate, but it’s like one of those “Pop Tarts are ravioli; change my mind” debates. You have some fun, but you do it at the cost of realizing the futility of existence. Gallup right now is sort of like Tyler Lockett was when he was the third receiver in Seattle. He’s supposedly very good, but if he doesn’t get more than five targets per game, he’s the equivalent of a handcuff. Oliver is in the right range to draft Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb, in which case I think Michael Gallup could be a nice bench asset early on. Say Oliver keeps Gallup, takes Lamb and Lamb gets hurt; you know Gallup is getting a starter’s share while Lamb is out. But say he takes Lamb and Cooper gets hurt; now you have two starters in a great passing offense. (I know some people hate stacking WRs from one team, but if you’re starting any team’s #2, you’re basically in that boat; I’m ignoring all quibbles on this topic.) Say you reach a point in the season where Gallup isn’t firing and you need the roster spot. Sell him or cut him; who cares? You don’t need to anchor to Gallup as a handcuff past a certain point. He’s just nice to have if the roster spot is open anyway.
If you want to keep Landry, do it. Cleveland’s offense started looking really, really good at the end of the season. They kept up in a shootout against Mahomes in the playoffs. In the motherfucking playoffs! Landry doesn’t have a lot of upside since he’s pretty slow and can’t jump high, but he’s an excellent route runner with excellent hands. Last year he spent most games on our benches or in free agency, but in terms of talent and opportunity, he’s better than half the guys we’ll be drafting.
#1 Corey
EK: DK Metcalf (Rd 2), Josh Allen (Rd 2), Tom Brady (Rd 7), Gronk (Rd 9)
LK: Shaq Barrett (Rd 8), Corey Davis (Rd 8), Joey Bosa (Rd 11)
That early-keeper decision is just the worst. I would keep Metcalf because he’s basically Calvin Johnson, but the process I’ve been spouting is to take the guy who’s more likely to win you games, more likely to finish #1 at his position (which Allen did last year). Just because I think Metcalf is Megatron, that has no impact on his chance of finishing at the top WR when he’s probably just not getting enough volume to compete with, oh, I don’t know, JOSH ALLEN’S TOP WR WHO ALSO FINISHED #1 AT HIS POSITION.
Basically, there’s no envy here—except that I’ll trade my second pick for Metcalf right now, and I’m serious.
Whoever Corey keeps early is the reason for the high ranking here. These late keepers are woof. Davis could be the Jets’ top target, but rookie QBs have a history of tanking the value of their skill players. Barrett led the league in sacks two years ago, which made him a top-3 overall IDP, plus he’s someone you already believe in, evidenced by you trading a future fourth-round pick for him last year. I say ride with that sunk cost, but if my name were Corey, I might just keep the guy named Corey. I have no real way of knowing (until I draft Gerrid Doaks in the final round this year).
#2 Doak
EK: JK Dobbins (Rd 3), Keenan Allen (Rd 2), David Montgomery (Rd 3), Mark Andrews (Rd 4)
LK: Jalen Hurts (Rd 6), Diontae Johnson (Rd 5), TJ Watt (Rd 5), Roquan Smith (Rd 5)
(Admittedly, I think I have about 20 players with a Rd 5 value. I believe in all of them.)
The Ravens’ homerism is strong, especially from someone who has only been as close to their home field as the parking lot. You can see by my valuation that I think Keenan Allen is the stronger option. He’s his team’s best player (Herbert ascending but not quite there yet), and he’s a threat to lead the league in targets, which means he’s a threat to be #1 at his position (actually, he gets disrespected in this regard, but I blame Philip Rivers’s noodle arm for that). Dobbins is no such threat. He’ll be really good, no doubt. But even with Baltimore rushing the ball 40 times per game, only 10-15 of those attempts are Dobbins’. And the Ravens haven’t been passing to RBs at all. That could change, sure, but if I’m trying to convince myself of a significant change like that, then do I really believe? I’m tired, which is why this thing has started to sprawl. I’m not looking forward to cementing this decision.
I’m really not looking forward to the late-keeper decision either. Hurts has that magic. He could rush for a shit-ton of yards, TDs, first downs, and throw for enough to get him in that upper echelon, but if I keep Hurts, I’m kind of shutting the door on getting Lamar again, and I just don’t know that I can commit to that pre-draft.
I can say for sure that between Diontae and TJ, I would keep TJ because it keeps the option of drafting Najee Harris open. The one thing I try really hard to avoid is the RB/WR stack. I don’t have numbers to back it up, but do I need to?
#3 Sean
EK: Bobby Wagner (Rd 6) or a late keeper
LK: Chase Claypool (Rd 4), Mike Davis (Rd 5), Ryan Tannehill (Rd 9), Robby Anderson (Rd 6), Dallas Goedert (Rd 7)
Gross.
Sean’s probably better off if I stay away from his team anyway.
