It’s a question as old as about 2013. We’ve seen IDPs go as high as the third round. Specifically, Sean drafted JJ Watt and Luke Kuechly with a late third and early fourth. It was unprecedented but it wasn’t crazy. If those two led their positions in points, it wouldn’t be all that different than taking classic Gronk in the late first. Well, they didn’t. I don’t remember exactly how it unfolded, but it was bad. Sean will admit it was bad. We didn’t even have keepers then. Watt was his third overall player.
What Sean was doing made sense. Once the offensive elite was gone, he set his sights on the defensive elite. (Actually, I remember Sean saying he planned this out in advance, which is a whole other no-no.) He was ahead of his time, but he was too far ahead of his time. I read a tweet one time that was something like: if you’re a year ahead of your time, you’re a visionary; if you’re five years ahead, you’re insane.
It’s actually Shelby who’s given us the blueprint for what to do with the back half of our starting lineups. I talked about it last year, but I’ll refresh it here. You should remember the key event, when she drafted Justin Tucker in the late 5th round. The season prior, Tucker lasted until the late 10th. The 5th is so early that Oliver, who had the 5.12 pick and a bunch of other extra picks, said before the draft that he would intentionally reach for Tucker in the 6th or 7th (then later admitted he had decided to spend that 5.12 pick on him, just to be sure.)
What made Shelby’s draft remarkable was when she spent her 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th picks on defense. She was the only person to spend five of her first ten picks on the back half of that starting lineup. That’s how you take advantage of a market inefficiency. It’s a significant risk that resulted in three irreplaceable players: Tucker, Budda, and the Ravens D. Her other picks were Khalil Mack and Tremaine Edmunds, who were coming off great seasons but didn’t pan out in 2020. Still, three of five is as good as you can hope, even for your best picks. Why subjugate ourselves to the Marvin Joneses of the world in that 7-10 range when we could basically be picking near the top of the non-offense positions.
This year, this will change. First, we’re keeping IDPs. Shelby is keeping Budda, Oliver is keeping Jamal Adams, Tim is (hopefully) keeping Darius Leonard and Younghoe Koo, I’m keeping TJ Watt, Spencer might keep Devin White, Corey might keep Shaq Barrett… and there are a couple of even fringier maybes (Sean can keep Bobby Wagner, Kennedy can keep Blake Martinez, though they have better options).
At the risk of jinxing it, it’s going to be a more defensive season anyway. The crowds are back, the refs are going to call holding again, and the rules of the natural universe just can’t allow more offense than we had last season. I read a headline recently for an article shilling a “zero WR” strategy based on how much talent there is late in the draft. No. Bad analyst. Yes, every year there are three or four late WRs who become stars. But in our league, Coleman automatically gets one (idk how but he does it every year), so good like getting one of the two out of 30 realistic options.
Oh, and we’re also keeping WRs at a higher rate than we’ve been able to recently. Especially last season, when a bunch of excellent RBs were eligible keepers, we saw star WRs fall to the 4th round and lead teams to the playoffs (thinking Lockett, Metcalf, and especially Diggs). Depending on who your top 12 WRs are, there’s a chance half of them won’t be available to start the draft (the three I just named, plus Robinson, McLaurin, and Jefferson). We’re definitely missing six of the top 15. I could keep Keenan Allen and push the needle even further. (I’m leaning Dobbins, but I’m genuinely undecided.)
What does this have to do with defense? Because when the 4th round comes this year, you’re going to be faced with some seriously sketchy talent at WR and RB compared to the absolute studs sitting in the IDP pool. Who would you rather have: Myles Gaskin or Myles Garrett? It’s an arbitrary question based on guys with the same quirky spelling of the same first name, and the obvious answer is Gaskin… so… hmm. I didn’t anticipate I would say that when I waded in…
BUT do you want Myles Garrett or Odell Beckham?
Do you want one of the Steelers’ WRs, or do you want TJ Watt?
Do you want one of the Jaguars’ WRs, or do you want Joe Schobert? (I know his name’s not great, and I faded him hard last year, but he’s put up great numbers starting at MLB for two different teams in consecutive seasons.)
Do you want Deebo Samuel or Fred Warner?
Oooh, here’s a good one: do you want Kenny Golladay or Blake Martinez? Golladay has had two 200-point seasons with Matt Stafford, but now he’s with Danny Dimes (and Jason Garrett, groan). Golladay was hurt most of last season, and he’s hurt again to start this one (hamstring pull will keep him out of preseason, and if he tries to push even slightly ahead of schedule, he’ll miss regular season action). Meanwhile, Martinez has put up Joe Schobert numbers for two different teams now.
If Golladay were healthy, the choice would be clear, but with Golladay questionable, specifically with a hamstring injury (which is to WRs what rust is to boats; hamstring injuries make Mike Evans put up garbage numbers at least once a month, and Kenny G is no Mike E).
I mean, yes, the easy argument is to suggest that last year’s WR run in the 4th will be replaced with a run at RB this year. That’s a given, so plan accordingly, you of the IDP keepers and missing early picks. But most of your 4th round RBs are undersized guys who have only thrived via the most offense-biased environment in league history. Sure, the league is slowly getting more offense-biased—it’s the only practical measure to safen (a word I just made up that means “to make safe”) the game—but it’s not happening at the rate that last year’s spike might suggest. Or it is. But I’m guessing it isn’t. I’m guessing the league will snap back because men are rubber bands, as I learned from the abridged audiobook Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus. There’s more to the analogy, but I’m not here to rewrite MAFMWAFV. Go give John Gray your money if you want to be enlightened. I’m here to talk fake football.
Ugh, I can never keep a note on the rails.
So half of us are going into the 4th round with no need to chase the Chase Edmondses available in that range. We’ll have two or three RBs and confidence that a WR now versus a round from now isn’t all that different. These top IDPs should be really tempting. The right IDP gives you not only the same expected production as those middle-class WRs, it prevents you from getting stuck in purgatory later on.
(Note: IDP Purgatory is preferable to TE hell. The 10th best TE is usually getting outscored by literally 100 IDPs. Don’t take an IDP over Mark Andrews or TJ Hockenson. Even though that IDP will probably outscore your TE, your TE will score points, while half of the TE field won’t.)
I can’t keep a note organized, so this is the time where I just bail out and make a declaration. There are 48 offensive players that have to go before the first IDP: 18 RBs, 20 WRs, 5 QBs (Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Dak, Kyler, if you’re wondering), and 5 TEs (the obvious three and the two I just named; have fun reaching for Kyle Pitts, though). Normally, that would be four rounds, and that would keep in line with how we drafted before keepers and defensive scoring bumps (and now an increase in number of IDP starters). With 11 of those 48 players being kept, that pushes things up almost an entire round. And keep in mind the scarcity among the elite IDPs could push the priority even more. Right now, the top DL, top LB, and top two DBs are keepers.
Who’s even in position to make the splash?
When Shelby did it last year, she started with Kyler Murray and Derrick Henry as keepers, and then she opened her draft with Tyreek. She followed up with Thielen (yuck), Singletary (fuck), and Ertz (lordy) with her next picks, which gave her a starting lineup (minus flex) going into the Tucker pick. That’s how you have to do it. Hopefully you snag better players, but even with that pile of turds (that, to be fair, looked good at the time), Shelby was able to make the playoffs (one win shy of a bye week).
Does everyone making the playoffs impact what risks we take early on? It must. I’ll save this for another day. I’m busy bring this bad boy home, just crushing structure and pace and everything, a real fucking masterpiece—urrp—Morty.
Brian can make the splash, but he doesn’t pick until the 4/5 turn. It’s not quite as splashy then. Cameron is in similar territory, especially having TE locked up. It’d be a little splashy since he’d be scooping Brian. Coleman picks a little closer to the middle of the round, and depending on how he feels about Aiyuk as a starter, he could have the security to reach. Evan has fire keepers but no second pick. I’m also utterly convinced he’s taking Pitts in the 4th. Kennedy starts the draft with two WRs and an inside track to Kelce or Kittle. With the right two RBs, he should enter the 4th with flexibility. Spencer has Diggs and Henderson, but he doesn’t have his third-rounder. I guessed Spencer would keep Devin White before the Cam Akers injury vaulted Darrell Henderson into 3rd-round value. (Spencer could still keep White or draft him with his 4th pick. When you’re the champ, you have the luxury of chasing a team you enjoy rather than making “sharp” picks. Plus, we all make the playoffs. I’m not convinced he doesn’t keep Devin White, who is a fucking dude.) Shelby is missing her first pick, but she has two fourths. She might just turn both of them into middle fingers and end up with three elite IDPs (remember she’s keeping Budda) before most of us have one (and when many of us will end up with none). If you’re behind the 8-ball, is it crazy to try a trick shot to avoid the scratch? I don’t think so (but also honestly don’t know). Still, that would mean Shelby enters the fifth round with a QB, maybe two mid-level RBs, three IDPs, and zero WRs. She could do us the favor of challenging the notion that mid-level WRs are more valuable than IDPs (which, now I remember, I was supposed to do the math on, the assumption being that WRs are indeed more valuable because of the scarcity inherent when we draft 60 of them as a league and start two or three, while we only draft 15-20 of each IDP and start one or two).
FWIW, here are the top IDPs at each position:
DL – TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Chase Young
LB – Darius Leonard, Devin White, Roquan Smith, Lavonte David, Bobby Wagner
DB – Derwin James, Jamal Adams, Budda Baker
You could take any of these guys in the 4th round and get no scorn from me. (I would raise an eyebrow at Donald, Young, or Wagner, though.)
With Adams and Baker as keepers, I’m tempted to rank Derwin as the top IDP available just off scarcity, but Devin White and Roquan Smith led all IDPs in points last season, and Myles Garrett is poised for his best year yet, definitely a threat to lead the league in sacks. (Typically the sack-leader gets in close range of 200 points, aka superelite IDP scoring.)
I will say to close that a balanced team gets you a balanced record. If you want to win it all, you have to excel somewhere. Spencer is the champion because he had the stud QB and three stud WRs. He specialized (with luck but still). He also bet on the Chiefs, which isn’t enough of a strategy to deserve its own note but is worth mentioning. It’s a little harder without being able to own the whole defense at once, though. Spencer also had garbage at DL down the stretch, so don’t infer that I’m glorifying IDPs, specifically. I’m just saying it’s a relatively untapped market in terms of chasing the elites ahead of schedule. Feel free to leave them all for me.
P.S. – Don’t take Justin Tucker in the 4th round, you animals. He only scores about two points per game more than like 15 other kickers. He’s stable, but he’s not magic.
