No Intro
Brady: on his recent episode of Detail, Peyton said that things go wrong for a QB when he’s either late or earlier than he wants to be. He said that early can be good, as long as it’s your choice. But being earlier than you want to be usually means pressure is your face and the routes haven’t developed. When this happened to Brady in Green Bay, he threw off-balance, he threw blind, and he threw high. He threw three interceptions, and he had an interception dropped. Aaron Jones’ fumble deep in Packers’ territory saved Brady’s bacon. So, Kansas City is going to blitz very close to the 47.6% rate they did against the Bucs in Week 12. 20% of that pressure was in a zone look, so 80% was in man, most likely press-man since the Chiefs’ boundary corners don’t boast speed.
The simplest way to explain the Chiefs is that their offense is predicated on maximize their speed, and their defense is predicated on neutralizing the speed of their opponent. The Bucs’ resistance to use pre-snap motion is talked about across the media landscape. Brady and Arians have a history of using it mostly to diagnose whether the defense is in man or zone. My prayer for this game is that they’ve had some plays under the hats for the entire playoffs and haven’t been forced to use them yet, so they aren’t on film for the Chiefs to anticipate.
To have their best possible game on offense, the Bucs need to get out of the huddle with enough time on the play-clock to diagnose the blitz, get their protections right, and use motion before the snap. If we see the huddle break with 12 seconds left on the play clock, the Chiefs have the advantage if they have a blitz dialed up (which they will half the time). When the pressure is inevitably in Brady’s face, he’s going to have to choose between sacks and ducks. If it’s third down, and we’re beyond the 50-yard line, he’s not taking the sack. My hope is that the ducks find themselves squarely in that nexus between the endzone and the boundary.
Mahomes: Even though the Bucs and Chiefs run (essentially) the same defense, the Bucs’ defense is far less likely to work against the Chiefs’ offense because the Chiefs’ offense won’t play you straight up. They’ll lineup their RB outside on the left and their TE outside on the right. They’ll motion their fastest WR into the backfield, and then maybe they’ll motion him back out, oh but then maybe they’ll motion him back the other way, and he’s moving at 15 MPH at the snap, on his way to 22 MPH with a lane. They’ll run RPO, read-option, jet motion, double-reverse, fake screen to set up a bomb, fake screen to set up a screen. They’ll fake jet motion, fake the hand off, and pitch it to their TE up the middle. They’ll sprint the QB out, move the pocket, and change the geometry of the play, even when the QB is Chad Henne. They have no fear, and they have a look for every situation.
The question isn’t what does Mahomes need to do to win. The question is how to stop him. This is a Buc-biased outlet.
If the Bucs want to slow down Mahomes, they’ll have to hit him. I don’t care if they get the sack. I care if they hit him. Rough him up. Knock his dick in the dirt. Nothing illegal, nothing shady. Just when you get the opportunity to hit him, you hit him as hard as you possibly can. Same with Tyreek Hill. If he’s not in motion before the snap, treat him like a punt-gunner. Take Whitehead and Winfield over there and blow this dude up. Look: the Chiefs are going to score. The Bucs need to look for opportunities to get an edge while getting scored on. The old-school approach is to drop hammers and lay lumber on dudes. The new school approach might be the mush rush. Basically, if Mahomes fucking owns the blitz, you say fuck the blitz and bail everyone into coverage. The linemen fake like their rushing but just do what they can to keep eyes on Mahomes and get their hands on a pass. It’s a stupid plan, but if it works once, it’s something the Chiefs weren’t thinking about before that they are thinking about now. It’s something you call one time really early in the game in a spot where the offense is showing a straight-up pass look (pretty much impossible to determine with the Chiefs, but hey, we experimented with isolating Carlton Davis on Tyreek Hill, so I’m assuming we’re open to anything). Even if it works, you don’t go back to it until you need it. You keep the Chiefs thinking you’ll pull it out again on a third down or something, and you commit to not bringing it back until it’s the fourth quarter and you need a stop. That’s the gambit. When you’re up against the perfect weapon, all you can do is gambit. Hope that some orphan blasting womp rats on Tatooine can somehow land a photon torpedo in a crawfish hole. I’m not suggesting anything you try against the Chiefs will work. I’m suggesting you play 90% of the game like you’ve played all year, and you reserve a couple of totally unexpected looks for moments very early and very late in the game, hoping you knock them off-kilter a couple opportune times. It’s gimmicky and lame, but nothing works against the Chiefs, so who cares.
Fournette: He’s no James White, but he’s trying. Fournette’s hands are fine. I can forgive drops in the cold in Green Bay, especially since he caught that back-hip on 4th and 4 to set up Scooter’s deep score. Fournette showed juice in that game, but I’m curious whether he’ll continue to severely out-snap RoJo. I don’t believe Fournette is significantly better as a thumper/bruiser type. RoJo has shown plenty of ability to push the pile this season.
RoJo: We were on third down basically as often as possible in Green Bay. If we’re getting more first downs without getting all the way to third down, we’ll see more RoJo. He is the fastest player on offense besides Scooter. We need to use speed against this defense, specifically in the run game. This simultaneously attacks their two biggest weaknesses.
CEH: He is James White. He’s got below-average size, average speed, and above-average route-running and hands. He is difficult to tackle because he is so compact. His best hope to do anything in this game is to get matched up on one of our OLBs in coverage.
Lev Bell: I’m curious about what he has left. I don’t think he gives a shit about football, but I do think that no matter what you’re priorities are in life, if you’re playing in the Super Bowl, you’re trying as hard as you can to win. The last time we saw Bell used as a starter, he had 75 yards and 2 TDs in a close win against New Orleans. I’m a little nervous about it, but I also believe experts when they suggest he’s just not the same player.
Evans: He can body or burn any of the Chiefs corners. Chiefs safeties on the other hand… Evans has a height advantage of at least half a foot, but Mathieu can body him and Thornhill can run and jump with him. I assume if a safety is helping on a receiver, it’s Evans who will draw the double team. The Chiefs have been awful defending the pass in the red zone and on third downs. They have made their hay defending pass-only offense late in games.
Godwin: Single coverage all game. Best-case scenario for the Chiefs is that Godwin gets singled by rookie L’Jarius Snead. Snead is playing like the top corner in this rookie class, but I feel confident Godwin has the “little things” advantage over the rookie. He will be able to force Snead into momentary misses that give Godwin just enough space to make clean catches.
AB: I don’t want to talk about him, but he’s going to matchup against either rookie L’Jarius Snead or unsteady third-year Charvarius Ward. Either way, even with a swollen knee, AB has more tricks in his bag than any of these CBs can keep up with. And Brady knows and respects it. When AB plays, Brady wants to feed him. It’s disgusting and it makes me sad. Is a Bucs’ win worth it if it’s on the back of a vintage AB performance?
Scooter: Juan Thornhill is the only Chief who can possibly run with Scotty Miller, but there’s a reason Thornhill plays safety. It would take just one hesitation move for Scotty to get release and be gone. I’m hoping the Bucs run him deep every other play, hit him once early, and force the Chiefs to into discomfort. The issue with Scotty is he won’t be able to get off press coverage quickly. Brady would need a full four seconds for the route to develop. So it’s difficult to imagine the scenario where the Chiefs are neither blitzing nor employing two deep safeties.
TyJo: this dude is just so damn good at receiver. Still, I can’t see where he fits into the plan if all other receivers are healthy.
Tyreek: he is the fastest player in the NFL, and it’s not close. It is impossible to bottle him up because, again, the Chiefs don’t play you straight-up. They scheme him up, and they do so brilliantly. The trick is learning to live with playing with a lot of cushion, allowing huge chunks of yardage, resting assured that it is better than giving up the whole field at once. Once the Chiefs get into the red zone, it is much more difficult for them to capitalize on their speed. There is just not that much room to run.
Watkins: he’s officially questionable, but obviously the pain or the limitation would have to be severe to keep a player from playing in the Super Bowl. Hell, the Packers ran Kevin King out there with a bad back, and that was just for the NFC Championship. Watkins is probably underrated at this point. He’s not Steve Smith, but he’s in that general vicinity when healthy. He runs fast, gets open, makes difficult catches. What else is there?
Hardman: Is he the second-fastest receiver in the league? Shit. Luckily he is not very good at catching. Still, the Chiefs knowing how to get him the ball. Against the Chiefs, they basically drew up a play that created punt-return-like conditions and handed Hardman the ball to run free. It was insane. They can’t run that same play against the Bucs, but also yes they can. The Bucs will not be as surprised, but speed kills even when you know it’s coming.
Robinson: Worth mentioning since he’s also very fast and can kind of catch. He’s likely to get more playing time than Hardman, and he would be in line to play every snap if Watkins got hurt.
Gronk: It's cool that Gronk has been made the impact he has at blocker. He showed last week that he still has juice as a runner. Brady wants to throw a TD to Gronk, so I imagine it will happen.
Brate: He's actually been the receiving TE in this offense. He tweaked his back this week in practice, and without him, our offense just wouldn't have the same design that's made us so successful so far. Brate isn't exactly good at blocking, but he's second to Gronk among non-offensive-linemen. The Chiefs can be exploited at LB. They really only have one off-ball LB worth a damn, and it would be a waste of Mathieu or Thornhill to stick them on Brate. Basically, having him in the lineup forces the CHiefs to do things they don't want to do, so I want Brate in the game. But can you imagine if this was OJ?
Kelce: this is the ultimate X-Factor. If you can slow down Kelce, if you can force entire drives where he’s not touching the ball, you get in his head, and that’s all we can hope for. Here’s what you need to know about Kelce; mentally he’s just a guy. Physically, he’s the LeBron James of the NFL, but he doesn’t have shit on LeBron mentally. Bracket him with David and Whitehead, rough him up, force the Chiefs to go elsewhere. Maybe they score anyway. That’s not the point. The point is you get them thinking about things they’re less comfortable thinking about. The point is to get them off-balance. Create enough miniscule moments of uncertainty, confusion, indecision, that eventually you get even just one error in a situation where your opponent was previously flawless.
Bucs Defense: My all-too-elementary summation of how to beat the Chiefs: keep Tyreek in front of you, and bracket Kelce. If the Chiefs can figure out how to work with that, awesome. Good for them. But don’t just play them straight-up because you think you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t. That’s how we ended up allowing 200 yards to Tyreek in one quarter. No, whether you’re damned or not, you do everything you can to force your opponent to looking to their second or third or worst choice as often as possible.
I don’t care about sacking Mahomes. I care about hitting him. That means on handoffs, I’m actually okay with the first man there laying out Mahomes like he thought it was playaction. Instead of biting on the run fake, bite down on the quarterback, even if you allow chunk yardage in the run game. The best favor the Chiefs can do for your defense is opt to run the ball more than they throw. Even if you allow huge chunks of yards, remember, it beats the hell out of allowing the whole field at once. Play hero-ball on defense. Chase the big play, and keep just enough men back to prevent a touchdown. Seriously.
I somehow believe that the Chiefs score more long TDs than they do short ones. In reality, 31% of the Chiefs’ offensive TDs come from outside the red zone. For their opponents, that number is 15%. For the Bucs, that number in 27% (including that 98-yard run up the gut from RoJo, not exactly designed to be a splash). For Bucs opponents, that number is 14%. The point is the Chiefs do it more often than anyone else. Sure, they score plenty up close. But look now at red zone percentage, how often a teams scores a TD when they drive inside the 20. The Chiefs sit at 60%, just 14th in the league. The Saints were at 72%. The Packers were at 80 (first in the league).
I’m suggesting that maybe there’s more value to blowing up the QB on a run play than there is to blowing up the RB. Blowing up the RB moves the ball a few yards closer to the opponent’s goal; maybe you force a fumble, I guess. But if you go for the QB, and you get that sack when the offense thought they would get at least an easy dump-off completion, you’re playing with human psychology in a way that gives you a greater edge than stuffing a run where, look, the offense goes in half-expecting any run to get stuffed. Plus, when you stuff a runningback, you’re hitting someone built to take that hit and hold that ball. When you snatch a QB on an RPO or a read-option or a roll-out, you’re probably doubling your chance at a fumble, in addition to gaining the psychic edge. If I were to get nasty with it, I’d also suggest that you’re delivering a hit to a player less equipped to take the repeated punishment.
The Chiefs line can’t hold up to consistent pressure. They just do not have the horses. I especially want to blow up their center. Force him to hurry. Force bad snaps. Get every plays off on the wrong foot.
Chiefs Defense: I don’t care. I’ve intimated that the Chiefs will do what they do. They will blitz half the time, and play most of the game in man or press-man. They throw in zone looks to keep the offense from getting a beat on them every play, but they are not good at zone defense. The book on Brady is the book on every QB. If you can get pressure with four or fewer, you can neutralize Brady as a thrower. Brady has no prowess as a runner. He’s not quite one-dimensional, since he can beat you in so many ways as a thrower, and since he can audible to positive plays (however minor) whenever he wants. As I mentioned up top, the Chiefs will prioritize extra pressure because they’re coverage cannot hold up against the Bucs’ receivers. No one can run with Mike or Scotty. Godwin is gonna run some people over. AB is going to be open a lot.
Chris Jones should absolutely light up Aaron Stinnie unless the Bucs have a plan to double Jones. Doubling Jones is tough on passing plays because the Chiefs have at least four other rushers that can really get after it, the most dynamic being Frank Clark but perhaps the most distressing being Alex Okafor because Okafor just doesn’t give a fuck. He delivered deliberate late hits on Josh Allen twice in the final minutes of the AFC Championsip, and he was feeling himself over it. He happens to be playing for a new contract, and he’s been underappreciated at each of his stops before landing in KC.
The Bucs have an advantage in this game. I don’t care how supposedly unstoppable KC’s offense is. They can be forced to rely on their lesser talents. The Bucs defense is faster than the best defenses KC has played this year. Lavonte David is smarter and more experienced and more physical than the best green-dot linebacker KC has played this year. (And it’s not even particularly good company; Deion Jones, Demario Davis, and Tremaine Edmunds are the only contenders, and really only Davis has the wisdom to contend with David at this point; Edmunds is a young start, but he was mentally blown out in the AFC Championship).
Finally, I guess it’s worth noting that penalties will probably be called in this game, and the Bucs have fared better in contests where the referees are not calling many penalties. Sean Murphy-Bunting has been especially successful snagging interceptions when he gets to get his hands on the receiver before the ball arrives. I’m just saying what we already know. He’s good, evidenced by a legendary interception streak, but he’s going to have to be better because I doubt he’ll get as lucky. I’m rolling my tongue over a conspiracy theory about the rigging of NFL games by the NFL itself. It’s not quite professional wrestling level, since the players are really playing, and I don’t think the league actually cares who wins, but I do think the league pushes officiating in certain directions. I find the focus on officiating unsettling. It’s very Big Brother, in the original sense. Like, look at this referee. Look into his eyes through the wonders of 8K television. Peer into his soul and see a person just like you. Learn to love your official like your common man. Also, here is the face you can blame for your problems. It’s not just “officiating” that blew the game, no, and it certainly wasn’t your friend the NFL. No, it was Sean Hochuli, son of Ed Hochuli, a whole brood of Hochuli’s with their bulging biceps here to wring the hopes out of your favorite team’s season.
My advice: ignore the officiating. The game is probably rigged, and thinking about it deeper can only disturb your entertainment experience. Football fans have been looking forward to this game all year. Bucs fans are getting treated to a Super Bowl on home turf. With or without the cannons firing, there will be fireworks. The game is gruesome and they only technically play for eight minutes over the course of three-and-a-half hours, but dammit we’re going to enjoy the shit out of it. I don’t even care who wins. I just want to see some intriguing designs, acrobatic catches, and electric runs. I want to watch two QBs spin the hell out of that duke, and I could honestly do without any train-collision-type hitting. I’m perfectly fine with a finesse game in this new era of the NFL.
Anyway, enjoy the game, and join Oliver’s Zoom if you want to talk some shit with us.
Peace, everybody.
