I don’t understand NFL football this season. I’m not going to pretend to understand or try to guess anything that will happen. Instead, I’m going to rely on the ancient mysticism of the I Ching (pronounced “yi king”). If you want to know more about the I Ching, Google it. Basically, it’s a Chinese divination ritual where someone in need of spiritual guidance tosses yarrow sticks and determines a course of action according to how the sticks fall. It’s not like Tarot cards where someone reads them and tells you, “Hey, this vague stuff will happen.” Instead, you ask the universe a specific question about a near-future outcome, then you toss the sticks (though we westerners, light on yarrow, are allowed to use coins instead, which just opens a whole can of existential worms about differences in cultural values, what we look to for meaning and signs of prosperity, etc. so let’s just not), and depending on how they (the sticks or coins) land, you draw a certain kind of line. You make six tosses that translate to six lines, written from bottom to top to make a hexagram, which is different from a hexagon, but not weird and satanic like a pentagram… Let’s just shuffle along.
Because fantasy football essentially boils down to a complex probability game, coin tosses are as fair a way to judge our outcomes, only flipping one heads or tails just doesn’t do the complexity of fate any justice, so like the Yi (as the great Confucius called it) recommends, I will be asking specific questions about our outcomes and tossing three coins for each line of the hexagram, meaning these individual fates will amount to the outcomes of eighteen coin flips and then also rely on my interpretation of the hexagrams to mean anything at all. Again, the Yi doesn’t tell you what will happen, it guides you as to how to take action.
If I put more time into learning to code, I would add the images that go with each hexagram, each of which corresponds to an image or an idea. I’m not pretending to have a deep knowledge of Chinese philosophy or mysticism or anything, just like I’m not pretending to know anything about what will happen in a given NFL game.
Here goes.
First, let’s talk about the playoff picture, and let’s start with how awesome Spencer is for beating Evan last week. By winning that game, Spencer not only forced a four-way tie for first place, he knocked Evan from first to fourth in the standings, decimating Evan’s chance at a first-round bye week. In order to recoup that bye week, Evan must win, and two of the other three 9-3 teams (Kennedy, Shelby, and Spe) must lose. It’s a melee week, so anything theoretically could happen.
If Evan loses and Corey wins and outscore Evan by 24 points, Evan would drop all the way to fifth—okay, technically meaningless since Evan and Corey would play each other no matter which one finished fourth or fifth. Corey would have to outscore Spencer by 76 in order to vault into third place. There is no scenario where Corey finishes outside the 3-5 range. But so any of Shelby, Kennedy, Spe, and Evan can take first place or at least a first-round bye when the dust settles on the melee, which will probably be at around 8:00 PM EST Tuesday.
Kennedy and Shelby have the points. A win by either automatically secures the bye. Kennedy has a 78-point cushion on the points lead between the two, for what it’s worth.
The intrigue, for me at least, is the final playoff spot. It’s between me (6-6, 1682 FP) and Coleman (5-7, 1652 FP). Coleman needs a win and a +31 point-differential to snag that sixth playoff spot. Basically, one of us gets to match up against a clearly superior team next week, and it’s worth blood just to get that shot. So this is where we start our divination.
The book says I need to ask my question aloud, then close my eyes, take a deep breath, and toss my coins. The question needs to be specific and focused on the near future.
________X________ “old yin”
_________________ “young yang”
_________________
_______ _______ “young yin”
_______ _______
_______ _______
So that’s a broken line becoming solid, followed by two solid lines, followed by a trigram of broken lines, UNLESS I’m doing this upside down, which is always possible. (Author’s note: I realized halfway into the second hexagram that I, in fact, was doing it upside down. Here is the original interpretation just for shits.
So this is phî. “In Phî there is the want of good understanding between the different classes, and its indication is unfavorable to the firm and correct course of the superior. We see in it the great gone and the little come.” More literally, we see heaven above and mother below. Supposedly the second and fifth lines in a hexagram are intertwined, which is why this hexagram portends upheaval, the young yang transformed into the young yin, i.e., good fortune becoming bad.
What I interpret here is this: the broken line becoming solid suggests that Lamar will start tis game. But even if he plays, even if he has some success, it will be minor compared to the heavens he opened last season. Lamar simply cannot sustain the success he had in 2019. He cannot revert to his old style of play because the defense are too keyed in and the offensive line is too bad. Even as he tries to adapt his style, his fortune gets worse. )
Whoops. Let’s look at it right side up.
_______ _______ “young yin”
_______ _______
_______ _______
_________________ “young yang”
_________________
________X________ “old yin”
We read from bottom to top, with three solid lines followed by three broken lines.
This is thâi. “In Thâi, we see the little gone and the great come. There will be good fortune, with progress and success.”
Hahaha, so Lamar is going to come back and crush. Let’s go!
Or… OR I am going to bench Lamar (little gone) and start Fitzmagic (great come). Now, what I’m realizing is I should have been more specific. I should have asked, “Will Lamar Jackson start for the Ravens?” I believe the hexagram I’ve conjured is a sign of the action I will take. Now, you have to wonder, since technically every hexagram is the combination of two trigrams. Look, even Confucius said that if fifty years were added to his life, he would devote most of them to studying the Yi. So it’s Fitzmagic time until it isn’t. End of story.
But if we look literally, according to Fu-Hsi’s trigrams, we get “heaven” and “earth.” Lamar is what I believe in, what I hope for, but Fitzmagic is real! We could also interpret these trigrams and “untiring strength” and “submission,” which is my relentless drum-beat for Lamar followed by my wizened acceptance of Fitz as the money-move this week. Remember this a short-term process.
Now, lets’ get into something with slightly more broad appeal. I’m assuming Coleman will set his lineup and start Austin Ekeler and Brandon Aiyuk. With a legitimate starting roster, Coleman’s team has been good. He kind of goes as Russell Wilson goes, so let’s ask the question. Now, we know Coleman needs the win, and we’re going to ask, “Will he get a melee win this week?” but I want to clarify that there is no “yes” or “no” coming from the Yi. The divination simply guides our actions.
________O_______
_______ _______
________X_______
________O_______ “old yang”
_________________
_________________
So that’s two solid lines, then one solid line becoming broken, then one broken line becoming solid, then a broken line, then a solid line becoming broken. I don’t think I have to explain whether that sounds favorable, but let’s consult the book.
This is shang, or sheng. “Shang indicates that (under its conditions) there will be great progress and success. Seeking by (the qualities implied in it) to meet with the great man, its subject need have no anxiety. Advance to the south will be fortunate.”
Okay, so like a lot of ancient wisdom, a lot of this book applies to royalty, war, and crops and shit. But the initial reading is clear. There will be prosperity in seeking to meet with the great man. Literally, we have trigrams meaning “water, collected” and “thunder.” So I’m looking for swamps, lakes, and wells, and I’m looking for powerbacks. Give me McLaurin for swamp, Ekeler because LAC spells lake. Just go with it. Then plug in Zeke for power. And Russ carries all the water for the Seahawks and Coleman’s team, so you’re going to live and die there. But when I see “advance to the south will be fortunate,” I’m looking at the stalwart back-half of this lineup, which has been averaging at least 10 points per position for weeks now. JJ Watt is back, Eric Kendricks leads LBs in INTs (probably—you think I have time for stats right now?), and Justin Simmons is an unheralded superstar.
So it seems like I’m leaning on Fitzmagic and Coleman is winning. My win-loss outcome is still cloudy, but maybe the fates of others will clarify my own.
_________________
_________________
_________________
_________________
_________________
_______ _______
That’s one broken line followed by five solid lines.
This is kau. “Kau shows a female who is bold and strong. It will not be good to marry such a female.” (Okay, again, ancient wisdom is ancient; patriarchal axioms are to be expected.)
I read this one pretty literally. You may not be matched up against Shelby, but she is ultimately your competition. I’m interpreting ‘marry’ to mean ‘share a bye week with,’ which gives me the impression that Kennedy needs to play this week as if he and Shelby will finish sixth and seventh in scoring, meaning if he wants the win, he needs to set that optimal lineup. Our trigrams can be literally interpreted as “wind or wood” and “heaven or sky,” with implications of “flexibility and penetration” and also “power.” If you’re fighting for that final melee spot, you’re relying on those flex players to deliver power, and well, in Kennedy’s flex spots we see Wayne Gallman and Chris Carson, i.e. raw power who rely on penetrating the line to get anything going. I think it bodes well. Kennedy’s choice of who to flex was obvious already, but if there were any doubt, stick with the power flex.
Technically the top six teams won’t have the top six QBs, but it’s hard to imagine Derrick Henry and Some Trash Asshole combine for 100 points again, and it’s hard to imagine Shelby getting the W without strong play from Kyler. Either way, let’s consult the coins.
_______ _______
_______ _______
_______ _______
_______ _______
_______ _______
_________________
Interestingly, every toss was the exact opposite of Kennedy’s tosses. If that’s not a sign, then I don’t understand ancient Chinese mysticism at all.
We have one solid line followed by five broken lines. (Technically, the Yi calls them “divided” and “undivided,” for what it’s worth.)
This is fu. “Fu indicates that there will be free course and progress. The subject finds no one to distress [her] in [her] exits and entrances; friends come to [her], and no error is committed. [She] will return and repeat [her] course. In seven days comes [her] return. There will be advantage in whatever direction movement is made.”
Basically Shelby should stay the course, and only good things will happen. I guess it sounds about right. Basically it says that despite a small error (which I interpret as Kylers’ crap game last week), of which there is no need to repent, there will be great fortune. Basically we’re talking about a triumphant return from someone who suffered a minor setback. Wheels up for Kyler. This doesn’t mean Shelby will win; it just means she need not worry about Kyler, which, if I were her, would lead to a great sigh of relief. Kyler’s hesistancy re: his shoulder was leading to some really pedestrian play, which would have gotten her booted from the playoffs. Even if she doesn’t get a bye, a strong showing from Kyler would mean no need to waste a roster spot on a backup QB.
Spencer could use a win, but it’s boring to ask “will so-and-so win?” So even if he wins, he need to know if his IDPs are legit. Right now, it’s Emmanuel Ogbah, Kwon Alexander, and Foyesade Oluokun. It’s a far-cry from some of these other IDP combos. Ogbah has come on strong but hasn’t been consistent. Kwon has had like one good fantasy season ever, when he was the MLB in a 4-3 with hardly any D-line in front of him. He’s not a solid option, and he’s not even scoring borderline starter numbers. Oluokun is sexy AF since he’s actually an off-ball LB with DB eligibility. Let’s get on with it.
_______ _______
_________________
________X_______
________X_______
_______ _______
_________________
One solid line, one broken line, two broken lines becoming solid, one solid line, and one broken line.
This is ko. “(What takes place as indicated by) Ko is believed in only after it has been accomplished. There will be great progress and success. Advantage will come from being firm and correct. (In that case) occasion for repentance will disappear.”
Hmm. So more literally, we have trigrams indicating “fire, as in lightning” (whatever that means) and “water, collected.” We have a broken second line paired with a solid fifth line. Ko calls for change. Maybe not total change, but then again, there’s not much in common between water and fire (even if the fire is lightning, or whatever). I think even though it feels like too much change and risk, it’s time to go get some legitimate IDPs for this stretch run.
This question is experimental and possibly not appropriate for this context. I just want to see what happens.
_________________
________X_______
_________________
_______ _______
_________________
________X_______
A broken line becoming solid, a solid line, a broken line, a solid line, a broken line becoming solid, and a solid line. It’s not symmetrical, obviously, but there is a something of a pattern.
This is li. “Li suggests the idea of one trending on the tail of a tiger, which does not bite him. There will be progress and success.”
The trigrams symbolize “swamp” and “sky,” and I’m comfortable interpreting just the swamp trigram as foretelling a meeting between two gators in the playoffs. The relationship between the solid second line and the broken-becoming-solid fifth line supposedly suggests steadiness in the subject, meaning these two could well win this week. The action I would take if I were one of you would be to make sure my Week 14 affairs are in order. For Corey, this means looking at Evan’s lineup and thinking, “Shit. I have to match up against that?”
Okay, let’s take a look at this consolation bracket, AKA the pick ladder. The first pick has never been less sexy, after the consensus top-three (CMC, Saquon, Zeke) this year all busted. Clearly these jokers are all selling the farms anyway. They don’t give a shit about a top pick. They want to accumulate picks, you know, since they all saw how successful Oliver’s hoard was to start this year. Ugh.
The trade offers spraying out of this broken garbage disposal are amazing. I have six wins, half of my team has COVID, my star QB (also COVID) is like 15th in QB scoring when healthy, and people are asking for my first round pick. Friends, I have no aspirations of winning it all. It’s stupid that I’m even in the playoffs. I’ll gladly keep my first and spend it to get Lamar again. Get outta here.
I’m getting offers that include 2022 picks. I’m never trading anything that far out, mostly because it’s definitively trading something at its lowest value, which goes against the only rule of trading I actually respect.
I’m getting offers, though, which makes me happy. Keep trying, guys. Trading is fun. I’m just not down to give up picks unless I’m pretty sure I’ll win anyway. Last season, I was really confident. I wasn’t trading to be competitive. I was trading to become a juggernaut.
Right now, we have three juggernaut candidates: Shelby, Kennedy, and Evan. I am not in their league. I’m starting three rookie RBs this week, and the best of them plays for the Jags. I would need to get so extremely lucky to keep up with the real teams. Those early round picks are only worth it inasmuch as they take luck out of the equation.
Okay let’s do some more coin-flips.
One nice thing about not being super shitty is that you are guaranteed a top-4 pick. So there is good reason to compete even when your season is hopeless. Well, let’s not get crazy. If your season is as hopeless as Brian’s you are allowed to have a shameless fire sale and give away players for whatever you want. But everyone else has a shot at the bye week, AKA the top-4 pick. Between Coleman and me, whoever misses the playoffs would secure that first bye, but then the second one is open. Even Oliver could snag it if he wins and Cam, Tim, and Sean all lose (which, you know, they did a lot already).
So let’s ask the coins some questions.
Kennedy says it takes 140 to win, but that was before we knew about the NFL basically cut corners on the rule book in order to expand scoring and keep people watching. I don’t think 155 is the mark, but according to Sleeper, that’s what the seventh-highest projected score is among our teams. Cam is projected to finish sixth with 168 points, but that includes 25 from Andy Dalton and Baltimore (riiiight).
_________________
_________________
_______ _______
_______ _______
_________________
_________________
Now there’s some symmetry. Two solids, two brokens, two solids.
This is chung fu. “Chung fu moves even pigs and fish,” LOL “and leads to good fortune.
There will be advantage in crossing the great stream. There will be advantage in being firm and correct.
Again, the reading saying “good fortune” does not mean it will happen. It says “chung fu moves even pigs and fish.” I interpret this as Cam needing to make moves if he wants to secure that bye week. When I think about starting Andy Dalton, especially against Baltimore, the adjectives “firm and correct” don’t feel like a fit. Some Trash Asshole is a pig, so I might move him, too. (Hell, trade him to Evan for some scraps.) I sense in my heart that Cam will keep his lineup as is, but then again, if he were already leaning away from Dalton, this might be the thing that pushes him all the way to submitting to the Carr-Waller stack against the Jets. Come on, it’s the Jets!
I thought about going 90, but I think Tim could win if these guys just exceed their projections a little bit. And if Tim wins, he has probably 50/50 odds of getting that bye.
________O_______
________X_______
_________________
_________________
_______ _______
_________________
The changing lines, especially as the last two throws, offer some serious uncertainty. But so we have a solid, a broken, two solids, and then a broken becoming solid and a solid becoming broken.
This is ko. Again: “(What takes place as indicated by) Ko is believed in only after it has been accomplished. There will be great progress and success. Advantage will come from being firm and correct. (In that case) occasion for repentance will disappear.”
That tracks. Tim is never a serious contender until all of the sudden he blows the doors off some unsuspecting team. If only Will Fuller wasn’t a fucking loser, we could see Watson and him combine for another 80-piece. At this rate, we’ll have to settle for hijinks from Sammy Watkins and Todd Gurley. Am I wrong remembering these were once Heisman candidates in the same season? Eh, maybe. Either way, there was a time when they fucking ruled, and neither is as old as he seems. I think if Tim actually sets his lineup, he’s a consistent dark horse for a melee win. I think the phrase “occasion for repentance will disappear” fits well. We’ve seen Tim drop the ball a couple times, but playing spoiler and securing a top-4 pick would go a long way in writing the first chapter in his comeback story.
_________________
________X_______
________O_______
_______ _______
_______ _______
_______ _______
That’s three broken lines, a solid becoming broken, a broken becoming solid, and a solid.
This is kwan. “Kwan shows (how he whom it represents should be like) the worshipper who has washed his hands, but not (yet) presented his offerings—with sincerity and an appearance of dignity (commanding reverent regard).”
They had us in the first half; not gonna lie. Oliver has definitely washed his hands of this season, but he hasn’t yet made his final trade (I’m speculating), a trade that should earn him some dignity and respect. Or perhaps he is about to start the players he has left, steal a melee win, and perhaps vault himself into that bye week. I think this much is clear: Oliver needs to put his chips in one way or another. Either take the L and the extra picks, or play for another crack at that #1. Restore what was lost. The lower trigram can be read as “earth,” “submission,” or “mother.” The upper trigram can be “hills, mountains,” “resting,” or “youngest son.” Take it for what you will, Oliver. But whatever you do, present those damn offerings!
Oh, this was about Kirk Cousins. Meh, it’s all hokum anyway.
Sean’s team is so, so bad. BUT all of his players are top-targets or heavy workload guys for their respective teams. It’s not real football, and it’s not Madden. It’s mostly a game of volume, and Sean has volume even if he lacks brand equity. But there’s still one lineup spot that I think might make the difference.
_______ _______
_________________
_________________
_______ _______
________X_______
________O_______
That’s a solid becoming broken, a broken becoming solid, then a broken, two solids, and a broken.
This is khwan. “In the condition denoted by Khwan there may yet be progress and success. For the firm and correct, the really great man, there will be good fortune. He will fall into no error. If he make speeches, his words cannot be made good.”
Okay, so I guess there can be no deliberating here. You simply have to go with the better player, the one with a longer history of firmness and correctness. The Bengals are a ball of trash, so I guess the answer to this question was always obvious. Let’s go for another one.
(I.e., will he be worth starting this week?)
_________________
________X_______
_________________
________X_______
_________________
_______ _______
Broken, solid, broken becoming solid, solid, broken becoming solid, solid.
This is kau, the one about the bold and strong female you shouldn’t marry. Confucius says, “Kau is defined as giving the idea of suddenly or casually meeting with.” If we combine these ideas, we could suggest that Agholor is the kind of guy you fool around with but don’t get serious. I think, if I’m being a pig-headed male about it, I’d say you got what you were looking for already, and it’s time to move on before things get stale and uncomfortable. I’d move on from Agholor. There are plenty of other enticing options in free agency.
_________________
________X_______
_________________
_______ _______
_________________
_______ _______
This is sung. “Sung intimates how, though there is sincerity in one’s contention, he will yet meet with opposition and obstruction; but if he cherish an apprehensive caution, there will be good fortune, while, if he must prosecute the contention to the (bitter) end, there will be evil. It will be advantageous to see the great man; it will not be advantageous to cross the great stream.”
Confucius speaks of, “peril in that lower [trigram]… looking out for an opportunity to assail the upper.” If your experience is anything like mine, then Brian has been sending soft pasta to our inboxes to see if it sticks. The reading suggests that if Brian wants to make moves, he should be true to his word of “no price too low.” I’m not a fan of seeing a Godwin-type move for a middling pick, but in the year of COVID, I’m not going to pretend I have control.
Okay, the coins have spoken. For shits and gigs, I’ll give my picks.
Shelby
Kennedy
Evan
Spencer
Tim
Oliver
