Alvin Kamara – Corey (3rd Pick)
You probably think it’s stupid to call a pick this high a steal, but when you consider the carnage and mediocrity elsewhere at RB, this pick shreds. I have a real steal for Corey later, but I had to mention Kamara because the obvious pick was Saquon and Corey didn’t even hesitate to slide past that mess. Even when his ACL was intact, Barkley couldn’t operate whatsoever in the Garrett-Dimes offense. And beyond that, Kamara is the only non-QB averaging 30 points per game. That’s a steal at any price.
Nuk Hopkins & Amari Cooper – Cameron (11th & 14th Picks)
I didn’t love these picks at the time, but you can’t argue with the results. Nuk and Coop are first and second in receptions, averaging 99 and 100 yards per game, respectively. Their average yards per catch are awful (about 10, aka Cole Beasley shit), but the volume isn’t going away. Among WRs, they are fourth and fifth in FP per game. My only doubt about them continuing to produce like this: their teams are losing. Granted, they are losing because of bad defense. But if the defense improves, the offensive volume (and by extension, the necessity to push the ball for all 60 minutes) declines.
Calvin Ridley – Spencer (29th Pick, appx. 37th incl. keeps)
Even after dropping a goose egg Monday night, Ridley is the top-scoring WR on the season through four weeks. There is one WR averaging more points per game, but it’s Jamison Crowder with just a two-game sample, and anyway bitch please. But so Ridley is a steal in that he’s given Spencer a couple of wins, but I’m not on the bandwagon that he’s “this year’s Chris Godwin” or whatever. Could he continue to be huge? Yes. Is he the best WR, even just in fantasy terms? No. But you draft for the first month of the season, so getting the top WR through one month is a steal. People who watch football better than me say Ridley got open plenty on Monday night, and it was Ryan’s fault nothing materialized. He seems like an easy end-of-year top-20.
Allen Robinson – Kennedy (30th Pick, appx. 38th w/ keeps)
Volume is king. Nick Foles likes targeting Robinson, and he likes targeting him deep. There are some monster games on the horizon. I don’t have any glowing praise. Hopefully the reasons are obvious. But if he continues to get 11 targets per game, he’ll shine.
Russell Wilson – Coleman (36th Pick, appx. 50th w/ keeps)
He’s cooking. What more can I say? Fine. He leads all QBs in completion percentage and TDs. He adds three points per game rushing, which puts him in the top half of the league. He’s getting no help from his defense, which means he’s throwing all game long. He’s averaging 40 fucking points per game. Jesus.
Keenan Allen - Evan (44th Pick, appx. 60th incl. keeps)
He was faded HARD preseason with Tyrod a known meh and Herbert an unknown. What’s crazy is that even though Evan took Tyler Lockett literally the pick before this, Allen is clearly the steal. Even if Lockett picks back up and has a season comparable to his 2019, Keenan Allen is just going to destroy him with volume and first downs. When you add in the Ekeler injury and the banged up defense, the Chargers are now a pass-heavy offense with lots of potential for negative gamescript. He had 19 targets in a game already this year. While that was his only standout game so far, we know the floor is high. And I know it’s too early to look to the playoffs, but Allen’s Weeks 14-16 goes ATL, LV, DEN. Vrooooom!
Stefon Diggs - Spencer (45th Pick, appx. 61st incl. keeps)
He’s another probable keeper, and not just because Spencer loves his Bills. Diggs is tied exactly with DK Metcalf in yardage and points, with Diggs scoring more from first downs than deep touchdowns. That’s two top-ten WRs our league mates are locking up for another year. Diggs is doing plenty of damage deep, by the way, averaging 15.5 yards per catch, making him one of only two players with that high and average combined with more than 20 catches so far this season. (The other is Calvin Ridley, which should make Spencer very happy, at least until the wheels fall off of both these team’s seasons.)
DK Metcalf - Corey (46th pick, appx. 62nd w/ keeps)
He has 16 catches for 400 yards, 13 FDs, and 3 TDs, which means he is averaging 4.5 fantasy points per touch. The only other player in the neighborhood of 4.5 is Robert Tonyan, who did basically all of his damage in one crazy game. When we talk about Metcalf’s averages, we’re not just taking the mean. Metcalf has caught exactly four passes in each game, finishing with between 92 and 110 yards, with each TD coming in a different week. Among WRs who have played at least three games, Metcalf is sixth in average FP. Corey got him in the late fourth, making him not only a steal but a keeper candidate—which, okay, all the steals of the draft have keeper eligibility, but technically they’re not all instant qualifiers for candidacy this early in a season. While we’re here, Corey might have a tough time choosing between DK and Josh Allen next year.
(I thought about including Aaron Rodgers here, but upon further review, he sucks.)
CeeDee Lamb – Brian (81st Pick, appx. 101st w/ keeps)
I picked this one without seeing the stats, just going off what I’ve seen and how people talk about him, but the stats bear out: Lamb is hovering around 15th in most WR stats. He is a starting WR in every sense, and these are his first NFL games. He’s getting high-leverage targets, too, with two-thirds of his catches resulting in first downs or touchdowns. Brian’s early keeper for 2021 is set, and at 0-4, I condone Brian thinking about next year.
Tyler Boyd – Doak (84th Pick, appx. 104th w/ keeps)
He’s 15th in WR scoring, okay? Everyone ahead of him was already drafted, so it’s literally the best pick I could have made—okay, technically I’m lying; Robby Anderson is 0.3 ahead of Boyd, but it’s easier if we just take what I said at face value. The point is, I’m not flexing. This was basically my third round pick, and I basically got a third-round value. Okay, now I’m flexing a little bit. Pre-draft, I had Boyd going on the border of the fourth and fifth rounds, so without being too hyperbolic, I feel a little blessed to have him.
Myles Garrett – Kennedy (91st Pick, appx. 113th w/ keeps)
He’s second in DL scoring, and it’s been pretty consistent. His first four weeks’ scoring: six, nine, 16, 13.5, and the six was against Lamar. Talking heads are hedging saying shit like, “Look, I’m not saying he’s Aaron Donald, but…” Look, he was the number one pick in 2017, and it wasn’t close. GRANTED, this ended being the year Watson and Mahomes went 10th and 12th, but I contend that if KC and Houston had the top pick, they would have taken Garrett, too. His athleticism and intellect are off the charts. In NFL terms, he is in Donald’s tier, and in fantasy, he is above Donald’s tier. Technically Zadarius Smith is on top by three points, but it took a three-sack, four-TFL game against Atlanta for him to get there. (And even more technically, TJ Watt is on top, averaging a point per game more than each of them.) The point is: dude is incredible. He’s borderline unblockable one on one, and if the Browns’ offense is playing to its potential, offenses will have to choose between running their best plays or using an extra man to block him.
Josh Allen – Corey (94th Pick, appx. 116th w/ keeps)
So, I’m guessing if Sean could do it over again, he probably would have kept Allen over either AJ Green or Butker. Obviously, if we knew exactly how things would turn out, he would have kept Butker early and Allen late. It’s a bummer. But one man’s bummer is another man’s… actually there’s no real estate here. But Allen did win Corey’s Week 2 matchup. Otherwise, he’s been eye candy. But so far he has a 30-point floor, which puts him in a class with only like three other 2020 QBs.
Steelers D – Sean (100th Pick, appx. 123rd w/ keeps)
Is this kind of a pity pick to get Sean on the board? Maybe, but the Steelers are the league’s best defense and have a nice schedule, too. And with their bye week out of the way, you have a cemented set-and-forget starter, which means… less… thinking? Let’s go with that. We like less thinking. Less thinking about trivialities like fantasy football points. More thinking about our own mortality and the fleetingness of life in general.
No. Drown out the darkness.
Bucs D – Evan (103rd Pick, appx. 126th w/ keeps)
Eyyyy! That’s more like it! It’s weird looking back just a month ago, when a DST in the 9th feels reachy but now it looks like people were sleeping on it in favor of IDPs and backups. But, no, the darkness is returning… Vita Vea broke his leg and will miss the rest of the season. Tom Brady sells out his teammates even when he doesn’t have the ball. Damn you, Tom Brady, you piece of shit. Without Vea, I don’t know if this is still a steal. But speaking of steals, we should steal Snacks Harrison off Seattle’s practice squad to shore up the middle. Man, this team was never built for injuries. The depth just isn’t there, and we’re seeing it already. Feels weird wishing we still had Beau Allen.
Diontae Johnson – Doak (109th, appx. 133rd w/ keeps)
(For the record, the keeper I keep fading is Drew Brees. I based this assumption on where he was drafted last year.)
Self-tout time again! I had Diontae as a seventh-round value but thought since he doesn’t really have the stats I could get him with late-keeper value. I decided I might be punting the season anyway, so I risked it, and I’m glad I did. Before getting concussed in Week 3, Johnson was leading the Steelers in targets. Now he’s over the concussion and through his bye week, and I’m excited about it.
(Remember when I used stats to make points? What happened to that?)
Damien Harris (110th Pick, appx. 134th w/k)
He’s clearly good, but his upside is capped by the Pats’ committee approach. An injury to Burkhead would send Harris into the stratosphere.
Antonio Gibson (112th Pick, appx. 136th w/k)
His last three week’s scores: 12, 13, 25. He’s not just a steal. He’s a locked-in late keeper for 2021. The thing to love about Gibson is that he’s actually a WR shaped like a RB, and his offensive coaches are the same ones who knew exactly how to unlock Christian McCaffrey. So when I say he’s a locked-in late keeper, it’s also an undersell because he could very well become worth a 2021 first-rounder. To be straightforward, he’s getting a lot of points off touchdowns. He’s not seeing the volume yet, and his offensive line (and offense in general) is kind of gross. But… Christian McCaffrey’s QB for most of last year, Kyle Allen, starts his first game for Washington this week.
Remember that thing about how we count Brian out and then he makes the playoffs anyway? Well, if he wins this week, and he gets Adams and Golladay off bye next week, he could definitely scrape together the seven wins he needs to get in the conversation.
Justin Jefferson – Oliver (120th Pick, appx. 143rd w/k)
I’m sorry, Oliver. I had to do it to you. It didn’t look like a great pick at the time, but I lacked the vision! Your abundance of picks turned out to be overabundance. You didn’t have any roster space to waste, which makes it really difficult to be flexible when you need a few weeks to see if a lottery ticket pays out. I blame myself. Oliver told me repeatedly he wanted to make trades for the future and spread out his picks, and I told him to go all-in on this season. For the record, I still believe it, but I’m thinking about how I manage a team when I give advice, and the way Oliver and I manage just doesn’t match. Hindsight is 20/20 and whatever, and I can’t say I wouldn’t have dropped Justin Jefferson after two weeks of no production, but I would never have dropped him for David Moore. Yuck.
Anyway, Jefferson is now like the 20th best WR in the league, well on his way to stealing Adam Thielen’s job right out from under him, and I am reaping the rewards!
Devin White – Spencer (125th Pick, appx. 148th w/k)
This was another that I tabbed before checking the numbers. It looked a lot better the first two weeks. How did the Bucs LBs not get any points on Thursday night? It’s like every played was either a run-stop by the line or a pass beyond that LB sphere in the middle. Jamel Dean had 12 points just from pass deflections. Anyway, I still believe in White. Especially with Vea out, opposing RBs will find that second level a lot more going forward.
John Brown (Hindparts) – Shelby (130th Pick, 154th w/k)
He’s a little banged up, which is kind of his fatal flaw, but (trope alert) when he plays, he gets open and scores fantasy points, especially with the Bills deciding to be an up-tempo, pass-heavy offense. If Brown can stay in the game, he’s worth a flex any week. He’s like what I said about Will Fuller: he is matchup proof not in that he will succeed in any matchup but that the matchup provides no information on whether or not he will go off.
Jonnu Smith – Oliver (132nd Pick, 156th w/keeps)
Seemed like a weird pick since backing up Kittle feels like wasting a bench spot, but it kind of paid off. Even though Oliver didn’t win the games Jonnu started, Jonnu proved to be too valuable to be left in free agency. At this point, he’s the only realistic late keeper Oliver’s got. I don’t know. I’m trying to be positive. I know Oliver thinks his season is going down the drain, but this potential keeper isn’t the light. The light is that your injuries are short-term and mostly behind you.
Colts D – Doak
Best defense in the league? (Besides Pittsburgh?)
Jamison Crowder – Shelby (159th Pick, 173rd w/k)
He’s the WR leader in FP per game, but he’s only played two games. Adam Gase likes to employ as many slot receivers as he can and treat his best slot receiver like he’s Keenan Allen, even when he’s Jamison Crowder. So… the volume is there, and Crowder is sneaky fast, but if he only runs curl routes, I don’t know what his speed is worth. Sigh.
Okay, while we’re here, let’s spotlight this is Shelby’s draft again. I’ve been clear about this. Her draft was money. But now that I see it again, it was Moneyball. She capitalized on inefficiencies, and it’s helped her open the season 3-1 and 3rd in scoring.
It makes me question the concept of value. We think about value as paying a little and getting a lot. But value can also just be paying an appropriate price based on utility. What’s the value of drafting bench assets in the middle rounds? I mean, I guess other people tried to snag DLs and LBs in those rounds, securing starters, but… they did it wrong? It’s not like everyone could do what Shelby did. Then there would be no inefficiency to exploit.
I don’t know. I’ll chew on it some more. I guess it’s not that complicated. It’s just that the rest of us tend to say we’ll go in early on one position, and that position is usually IDP, which is arguably where the action is since IDPs have higher ceilings than kickers. And Coleman went in with a similar strategy, grabbing LB, DST, and DL with consecutive mid-round picks. The problem is his picks didn’t hit. Cory Littleton was never going to hit, but the 49ers D and JJ Watt should have, and maybe they still will. Again, if everyone tried to emulate Shelby’s draft, the inefficiency would shift. But I feel like if I talk about it enough, you’ll all come to agree it’s inimitable and then lose the scent and give me the opportunity to steal it next year.
It also depends on draft slot. Being near the turn is optimal for even having a draft strategy. When you’re in the dead center like Kennedy and Evan, you kind of have to do what they did and swap some picks to get stacked every other mid-round to be able to spend off-center without the waiting game in between picks. It’s easier to draft Tucker when you know you’re getting one of those top five guys on your list right afterward.
Austin Hooper – Coleman (170th Pick, 194 w/k)
It hasn’t really popped off yet, but it’s coming. He plays a lot of snaps, and his target numbers are on the rise. He’s not going to be what he was last year, but imagine if Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph were one person. They would be Austin Hooper.
Chiefs D – Spencer (173rd, 197th)
It’s easy to forget this defense ended last year on a hot streak. Basically, they can’t afford a full defense, so they built one that’s designed to prevent big plays, which mostly means they defend the pass well and keep runs contained to like ten yard bursts. If you want to move the ball against KC, you basically run any time you don’t see a stacked box, and you gain 3-7 yards. You have to be able to complete a pass against a stacked box, which most coordinators can just scheme up for the remaining five yards to get every first down and never give up the ball. The problem is if you don’t score a TD every drive, the Chiefs will probably force you into passing to preserve the clock late in the game, and that’s when the defense starts getting sacks and picks. Spencer actually dropped this defense at some point, but he gets the credit for reacquiring them. They might have a couple weak games, but most of their games, they’ll hit above seven points, which is all any good defense can do.
Cam Newton – Tim (176th, 200th)
He has COVID, which is bad, but he has no symptoms. He’ll miss time, but Weeks 7 and beyond should be just fine. He is kind of worthless to Tim now that Deshaun Watson is going to go on an epic revenge tour, but if Tim needs him, he is a consistent threat to finish in the top 10 and even top five most weeks.
Blake Jarwin – Brian (177, 201)
Jarwin’s season has been over, but the point is that it was a good look to snag the Cowboys’ TE. Backup TE Dalton Schultz is crushing in Jarwin’s stead, albeit not for Brian’s team. So, good pickup by Sean. Schultz is basically a top-five TE over the last three weeks.
Mike Williams – Shelby (178, 202)
He hasn’t done much yet, but going back to what I said about LA earlier, they have an entirely different outlook than they had during our draft. Williams is a deep threat, and Justin Herbert can sling it. Williams is less than healthy, so it would be cool to see him rest and get right rather than keep pressing and keep suffering setbacks.
Jameis Winston – Doak (181, 205)
He’s inching closer and closer to becoming the QB that deliver Brian’s fantasy championship on his way to his first Super Bowl win.
Robby Anderson – Sean (189, 213)
Sean dropped him but got him back. Anderson has been a top-15 WR, and the Baylor connection between him and HC Matt Rhule seems to be more than narrative fluff. Rhule is drawing it up as if Anderson is the #1 and not DJ Moore. Maybe it doesn’t last, but even as #2, there’s enough pass volume and negative gamescript to set up many top-24 weeks.
Brandon Aiyuk – Coleman (191, 215)
Another rookie WR already doing big things, Aiyuk has scores of 20 and 15 in the last two weeks. There were rumbles he would usurp Deebo eventually, but with the latter missing time early, the first was pressed into action and it is paying off for him and for Coleman. I buy the hype. I don’t think it matters who the #1 is in terms of targets for San Fran, but Aiyuk’s speed and agility will give him way higher per-target numbers and probably more overall points even as the #2.
Whew. What a ride.
Okay, real quick, since it’s the quarter-mark, let’s talk about where we are, how we got here, where we’re going. Yada.
Kennedy has the three studliest RBs (Carson, Cook, Jacobs) to go with two #1 WRs (Chark and Robinson) and the top-shelf TE (Kelce). That cast props up washed Aaron Rodgers on offense. The back-half is Garrett, Collins, and now Martinez providing a combined 30-per. He doesn’t really have a kicker or a defense, which could hurt him in a close game against a good team. Opportunism is key: jump on the next big thing as soon as you see it. If we look at free agency right now, I’m seeing Gostkowski and the Bears D at the most likely to finish near the tops of their positions.
I don’t see any clear reason why this team would slide. Rodgers should keep firing, all three RBs are year-long focal points, Robinson and Kelce have clear and solid roles, and the IDPs are integral to the success of their respective defenses. The only question mark is Chark, who is the #1 WR in Jacksonville but has had weird volume. I think Kennedy has the depth in Deebo and Higgins. I see no avenue for trades to improve unless you want to trade Deebo for a defense. You’re stashing Higgins as a late keeper option and probably thinking Chark for early.
This continues to be a playoff team, and with the three RBs rolling, it looks to have that juggernaut power that you need to rattle off three straight in December.
Cameron’s team is mostly his keepers (Dak & Waller) and first two picks (Nuk & Coop). He has had also had at least one 20-point RB in his lineup every week, often two. It’s been a mix of Mostert, Gordon, and Some Trash Asshole, with the lattermost becoming arguably a top-five RB with Chubb on IR.
But so Cameron’s team is quite good regardless with the top QB, the two top-five WRs, the sort of hodge-podge RB room, and the TE leading the league in targets. He managed to score an elite DL in Aaron Donald for free, and while Donald sometimes scores close to zero, he’s also already posted a 21-point game that won Cameron a tight game against Coleman. Demario Davis has been hitting about ten points every week, and Cameron is getting close to figuring out the K and DB positions. He somehow sold himself on the Rams. Dude has five Rams on an 18-man team. I do think the wheels can come off this team, though. I don’t think I can predict how, but I would guess Dallas gets their shit together and doesn’t need to throw for 400 yards just to lose by fewer points. There have been a weird amount of fumbles that have led to the Cowboys’ negative gamescript. If they start getting leads and running more in the second half, suddenly Dak is scoring 10 fewer points per game, which is good/great but not the record-breaking action we’re seeing now. Otherwise, maybe a lack of reliable depth could do him in, at least in matchups against the other best scorers in our league. Cameron looks to be in playoff position.
I’m just waiting for him to drop Dobbins so I can scoop him up.
Oh, because it’s gross, I should mention after a weak 133 in the melee, Cameron has scores of 192, 180, and 198 in the last three weeks.
Shelby has The Incumbent and The Future leading the way, and she has her own trash asshole scoring in the top-five among WRs. Her other WRs of note are Thielen, John Brown, and Crowder, who I thought were all about the same, but no, Thielen is 12th in scoring. Zach Ertz is a mess, a straight-up mess, and it’s Shelby’s one great miss in the draft. He’s only 29, so it’s not like we should have expected the decline, but as Evan pointed out to me (Evan watches the Eagles, so I feel like he knows) Ertz wins with agility moreso than with technique, so even though he’s only 29, he’s been through enough to have lost some burst, some wiggle, but it happened fast enough that he didn’t supplement with technique yet. Maybe I’m describing it wrong. Basically he’s slowed down just enough to be less than what he used to be, so he’s aging more like Kyle Rudolph than Greg Olsen. He’s no Jimmy Graham. But this is why you draft the solid kicker/DST combo. Every team has their peripheral weakness. TE only feels more impactful than any of the back-half positions. When you look at the numbers, most TEs score closer to K, DST, and IDP than they do RBs and WRs. Ertz used to be exceptional. Now he’s normal.
But yeah, the back half is strong: Khalil Mack had some nagging injury, but he wasn’t injured when he was throwing Bucs’ linemen around Thursday night. Tremaine also appears to be getting back to full speed, and Budda Baker had a thumb thing but now he’s back too. Ready to roll.
If Kyler Murray can ascend and Singletary can stay the lead back and the Titans can play football again so Henry can score fantasy points, then Shelby’s right there with Cameron, but without firmer flex options than Singletary, Brown, and Crowder, I don’t know how she hangs with Kennedy, specifically the lesser two of Carson, Cook, and Jacobs on any given week. She might have to luck into one of them playing the Steelers or something in order to get an edge.
So does she make a trade to try to shore up that final flex spot? She’s got an extra 4th-rounder to offer; maybe she combines one of her early picks and a flex guy and throws Brian, Oliver, or Sean an offer while their hopes are low.
Evan has overcome football-type adversity to make it here. He didn’t have a first pick, and his second pick wasn’t able to play Week 1. OBJ Looked like a trash pick, and Evan somehow ended up with two receivers in a Tyrod Taylor offense. Oh, he kept RoJo, but then the Bucs signed Fournette. And Carson Wentz, I don’t even have to elaborate.
But none of it mattered. He lost a game, sure, but it was just that Week 1 melee. Every week after has been just fine if not great. Wentz might suck in real life, but he’s chipping in 25 per the last two weeks in Mortydome. Sanders, basically the same story, has people questioning his worth as a player, but he’s 13th among RBs here. OBJ is a rollercoaster, but that’s fine when you have stability elsewhere. In Evan’s case, that’s Lockett, Allen, Henry, the Bucs D and Lavonte David. RoJo can be consistent as long as Fournette stays away, but I don’t know. Was the Bears game enough for Arians to make it a 70/30 split. That’s the only way RoJo doesn’t frustrate you long-term.
Basically what I’m saying is I’m skeptical.
Evan is turning to Big Ben at least for this week, but clearly either he or Wentz is at-best a fringe starter compared to what the rest of us have. (I say this like Lamar is outscoring Ben by more than 0.4 per game.) He’s got Herbert in the hole, and he seems to have a plan for rotating based on matchups. Have a blast with that. QB controversy is a headache.
Miles Sanders isn’t built like a traditional workhorse RB, so if Philly’s using him that way behind that broken line, it’s not going to last long. The bench assets are AP, Gaskin, and Corey Davis, all of whom have a reasonable floor but a low ceiling. There will be a few weeks ahead where this team scores more like 110-120. I see Evan losing three more games with low scores, which means he can only afford two high-score losses to be a viable playoff candidate. I think he has it in him, but I think that about nine or ten teams in this league (sorry, Tim and Brian).
There are four teams scoring right around Evan, and Corey is one of them. What I like about Corey’s team is that he’s mostly decided on a consistent lineup, changing things only when he needs to. Josh Allen, Kamara, Kupp, Metcalf, Kendricks, and Bradberry have been pretty consistent. Your prized Shaq Barrett has been up and down, though you only acquired him recently. Juju and Drake have been fine but not what you’d expect. Gronk has been real bad. I think the three-headed monster QB situation is going to let you down, but I also suspect you would have started Josh Allen if there were more clarity about that game even being played. I feel bad that you believe in Tom Brady. I think he, particularly, is the piece of the monster that will let you down the most. That guy sucks.
But so let’s talk about Matt Breida. What’s up with that? Matt Breida is over. I like Josh Kelley, though. I didn’t have him as a steal only because I didn’t buy into his production before the Ekeler injury. He’s probably the starter now, but I don’t pretend to know what Anthony Lynn does with RBs. He thinks because he played RB he knows everything about the position, and I’m not saying he’s wrong; I’m just saying I don’t hardly anything about it, so I can’t pretend to think like him.
Speaking of production I don’t buy, Corey’s team in general feels like it’s overachieving. I mean, Kamara is scoring more per game than McCafe scored last year. I don’t think teams are going to keep giving him that, and I think the return of Michael Thomas syphons some touches from Kamara. Josh Allen’s schedule gets tough, but then again Brady’s gets soft. Then again, Brady is soft unless he’s yelling at people who make a third of his salary and will definitely lose their jobs if they talk back to him. Fucking tough guy.
As far as improvement, I would make a trade. Drake and Kelley are good, but I would consolidate them to get one substantial RB. Cam doesn’t seem too attached to Melvin Gordon, for instance.
Can Corey make the playoffs? Yeah, he’s in the conversation. It would have been cool to see him go 4-0, though and see how long it could last. Our only hope for a record with a zero in it is Brian, and I just don’t feel like rooting for 0-16 this year. Like, even the Jets and Giants don’t deserve it. The coaches and owners might deserve it, but the players don’t deserve it. Buffalo Bills 19-0 is going to be my main rooting interest where zeroes are concerned.
Coleman has the roster of a 3-1 team. He scored 170 in a loss already, but he also ended up fifth in scoring that week, so it’s not like he caught an awful break. In fact, the four teams that outscored him that week are all 3-1.
I guess I should say Coleman had the roster of a 3-1 team. The Ekeler injury is a brutal blow. Russ, Zeke, and McLaurin need more help from the rest of this team. I don’t think TY Hilton will be helpful. But I have faith in DJ Moore, Austin Hooper, and Brandon Aiyuk to be key pieces of Coleman’s playoff run. (Coleman’s telling me to shut the fuck up and stop jinxing him, but I’m just saying how I feel!) Greg Z will score more consistently once Dallas stops having to score TDs and go for two every second-half possession.
This week specifically, JJ Watt is going to get right. The Texans should crush Jacksonville, and Watt will crush Minshew. I don’t like Cory Littleton. I don’t think he should be on your team. Coleman has sneaky depth in Moss and Shenault that should make an impact this year.
I worry about McLaurin a little bit. Dwayne Haskins has been his QB for literally the last five years. He’s the only legitimate receiving option besides the RBs, so he should be fine. What he needs to do is get lucky while Ekeler is out, which should be about six weeks, from what I know. Realistically, eight weeks, which brings him back in time for the end of season melee. If Coleman can win four of the next eight games, five for security, then Ekeler can put him into the playoffs and potentially be the spark plug that ignites a playoff run. (Coleman, I’m sorry in advance for your 4-12 season. It is definitely my fault.)
Spencer’s Week 2 loss to Tim was bullshit. It was the Hawks-Pats game where Cam newton scored like 13 FP in the final four minutes It’s a little bit Spencer’s fault for starting OJ Howard over TJ Hockenson, when we really didn’t have reason to believe OJ was a key cog in our offense, while the Lions needed—you know what, let’s not. It was a bad beat. There’s no way to magically solve a bad beat. Tim got 50 points from Aaron Jones that week. It just wasn’t Spe’s week. But it’s looking good for the year.
Spencer has scored between 146 and 164 every week, which is an unusually tight range with a less than sexy ceiling. It’s the flex position and the back half, which sounds like a lot, but clearly he’s scoring a solid amount of points. He’s just not hitting his ceiling because he’s not getting the boom week from the majority of the back half at the same time. Chandler Jones has been disappointing, a statement we can reframe to suggest Chandler Jones is on the verge of exploding for a big game or for a string of solid games.
Mahomes, CEH, Diggs, Ridley, and now AJ Brown should be solid most weeks, and honestly should average close 100 as a unit, which means the other seven players need to get close to 50 combined to keep Spencer competitive. The hope is to see 120 from the crew above and still get more like 70 from the other seven. That’s not THE ceiling, but it’s the realistic weekly ceiling. I don’t know how you manipulate it. It feels like you have a good back half. You might just have to wait for regression to return them to their averages.
I don’t like your bench, bro. Three TEs is a joke, for one thing, but I get that your “real” TEs are on bye. I would just start Hockenson and say fuck it, but there are rumblings that Tonyan is Kittle Lite, so I say chase that dragon. Ugh I guess there’s nothing to do with the bench. Deshaun Watson is about to get a lot of autonomy in Houston, so we need a week or two to see how that affects Cooks. One of Cooks, Ruggs, or Hardman has to go eventually, though, right?
I see this team in the mix. They clearly have the firepower and haven’t reached their full potential. McKinnon and Ingram are doomed to complicated committees, so I hope for Spencer’s sake they end up getting some good volume regardless.
If 140 to win is the rule, then I have a chance. I’m in no man’s land though. I have five PPG fewer than the rat king above me and five PPG more than the next team below me—granted, it’s Oliver, and he’s about to start outscoring me. If I have any playoff hopes, they rest in Lamar finding some middle ground between last year and this year. I’m hoping for 30 per game, which would be like a solid seven points per game below last year’s historic season. I’ve already gotten lucky twice. Sean didn’t score shit in Week 2, so I was able to win with 139. The last week, okay, my score was good, but I picked up my DL, LB, and DB midweek, and they combined for 40 points. I don’t expect 40 a week from those three, especially if I’m streaming. Then again, I had a spot of bad luck the week prior when Lamar and Andrews and Queen needed 30 combined and they got 24.
I’m not counting myself out, and I don’t plan on playing for next year any time soon. Will my tune change if I lose three straight? I can’t predict the future. I just know right now, I’m feeling confident I can compete with anyone but Kennedy.
I’m waiting for that change the name, change the luck moment from Oliver here. Losing to Spencer by a couple points to go 1-2 was the week I thought we’d see it. He just lost to Cameron by 80. It’s time. Pinch that loaf and move on. If Thursday night was any indication, things are turning around. Just give it that little shove.
Oliver’s problems are not complicated, but they are not easy to solve. He suffered injuries, and he doesn’t have a starting QB. His roster is pretty stacked, even with Julio and McCafe hurt. Lev Bell is back, and Oliver seemingly has nowhere to put him. I would bench Gallup, but I understand he had that one good week and teams are going to start to leave him isolated. While you can’t expect 15 catches for 180 yards from Kittle often (he was playing the league’s worst LB corps), you can feel good about the TE you drafted ahead of all other TEs having probably the best game a TE will have all year. If your other studs get healthy and start putting their best games on the board, the wins will start to accumulate.
But what do we do with these QBs? Neither is bad, exactly—in fact, Ryan is in the top 12—but it feels like you’re going to be giving up at least five points against our league’s best QBs. I would package Ryan and Julio in a deal for Watson before he blows up. Tim loves them. Give him what he wants. Ryan and Bell, whatever. Just get it done. Get in the game!
You don’t technically need the points from QB if you’re getting them elsewhere. I just don’t think you have confidence in Bell or Julio or Ryan anyway, so why not just jettison them for a guy you can have confidence in?
This would look better if Tim had set his lineup in Week 4. He would still be 1-3, probably, but at least he would be averaging closer to 150 PPG. It skews my precious data. Tim;s team is not good. It’s basically one of two high-ceiling QBs, maybe the highest ceiling RB, eventually Michael Thomas comes back, and Gurley has somehow scored like exactly 15 a game, but that’s really it. I suppose the Pats D and Joey Bosa have been mostly good. Darius Leonard was great before getting hurt. But the depth RBs and non-Thomas WRs are awful. Will Fuller has been expected to shoulder the load, with Ant Miller and Sammy Watkins filling out the lineup. Yuck.
I’m not going to sugarcoat it: Tim has not been active. It hurts his chances of being seriously considered for anything like playoffs or championships or wins or anything. Luck only counts if you put in the time on the front end.
His average scores looks a lot better after he posted a season-high 156 last week. Things are looking up. Sean found good players in free agency. Two of them play for the Panthers, and one of them is going to start scoring zero points when McCafe comes back, but for now, this team has a little juice. A little. It’s like 50% made from concentrate, and I appreciate the effort. It is no fun to lose your best players to injury, especially the same injury in the same week. Hopefully it’s fun rooting for Joe Burrow. I’ve enjoyed Sean’ embracing of his doppelganger. There’s opportunity here. It’s not a team that projects to blow anyone away, but if Justin Jackson somehow starts for the Chargers, that could overlap nicely with Davis going back to Carolina’s bench. Robby Anderson might be a top-10 WR! When you consider Sean has one of the better back halves in our league, he could churn out 150 more often than not and start to squeak closer to .500. If injury luck is cyclical (probably the wrong word, but I’m tired), then Sean just needs to wait for it to hit everyone else. Having all your injuries stacked at the beginning can be a blessing. Suddenly in November, you’re 4-4 facing off against teams starting actual backup RBs.
Like, what? There are 50 points per game separating our best team from our worst? No. Unacceptable. Regression will win out here. Brian will be averaging 150 per game in six weeks. It won’t start this week, not without Adams and Golladay. But after his 0-5 start is through, he’s going to crash back with 175 a game and end up 5-5 entering the home stretch. Book it. I’m not even wasting words on what this team has done thus far. It’s not indicative of what will happen, especially once Jameis Winston takes over the Saints’ job.
No outro. I’m cooked. Good luck this week. Love to all of you and your loved ones.
Oh shit. Week 5.
Doak (Lamar) over Evan (Lockett)
Oliver (Conner) over Shelby (Kyler)
Sean (Robby) over Brian (Gibson)
Spencer (Mahomes) over Corey (Kamara)
Cameron (Dak) over Tim (Watson)
And… in the matchup of Kennedy vs. Coleman, fka the Swole Bowl aka the Two Brothers Who Are Just Regular Brothers aka the Mexican Armada aka Kendy and the Mole...
… a matchup that has seen, I’m pretty sure, Kennedy win like seven of eight games…
…an upset!
Coleman (Russ) over Kennedy (Carson)
