Editor's note: the title is never addressed within the piece.
Snake Jazz 139 – 122 SimpleFunClassicAdventure
This game started with the battle for Bengal dominance, in which Tyler Boyd outscored AJ Green and Joe Mixon combined, despite Boyd seeing eight opportunities compared to 33 for Green and Mixon. I thought it was going to be a false positive. I spent the drive to and from the grocery store on Sunday morning debating who add in place of Dan Bailey. Bailey was facing the Colts defense, and I didn’t feel like hedging. Somehow I opted to keep Bailey and bench the Colts, only to watch them lead all DSTs in points. Bailey put the first points on the board and then never kicked again, not because he got hurt or anything but because for the second week in a row, the Vikings sucked so terribly that the math prevented them from kicking FGs or XPs in the second half. Everything else went my way. Barkley and Bosa tore their ACLs within minutes of each other, and during that same window James Robinson, Mike Evans, and Diontae Johnson each scored 20. Sean got some hope from Higbee’s three TDs and Butker’s 58-yarder (good for 5.8 in our scoring), but when your best players are your TE and kicker, it’s probably best if you don’t hope at all. I lost Cam Akers, but for the pick I spent on him, he was already as good as gone. He is very much on the trade block. Sean also lost Courtland Sutton, leaving David Johnson and Joe Mixon as his only players left from the first four rounds of our draft. Yikes. Or Yuck. Both.
Better Luck Next Year 165 – 164 Stay Mahomes Stay Safe
Sunday morning, Tim swapped out Deshaun Watson for Cam Newton, and with Michael Thomas out, he was starting Sammy Watkins, Will Fuller, and Anthony Miller, who combined for two points. Total. But apparently Mike Gesicki is a WR now, playing the majority of his snaps in the slot or out wide and racking up 26 FP while he does it. Aaron Jones also added a WR’s worth of points (15.8) to already the week’s best rushing total (34.8). Jones’s 50.6 FP would have been the eighth most by any player last season, just shy of Jones’s own 51.2 from Week 5. When players do stuff like this, your team tends to overcome dog shit performances elsewhere, especially when your kicker knocks in 17 FP and your QB is cosplaying peak Tim Tebow. With just four minutes to go in Sunday night’s game between Seattle and New England, Spencer led by 13 points. Cam Newton led the Pats all the way down the field, having a hand in every fantasy point they scored in that time, in the end getting just enough for Tim to win by 1.05. Spencer had amazing games from his core players: Mahomes 39, CEH 9, Diggs 25, Ridley 27, Ingram 15, DJax 10, Devin White 18(!), but the periphery was just trash: OJ 2, Myers 5, Chiefs 2, Chandler 3. I told you about those Seattle kickers, though. I also believe Bruce Arians when he says that his offense doesn’t target TEs. I think it’s fucking stupid, for the record, just deciding ahead of time where targets will go. It’s obviously inefficient, isn’t it, giving the defense less to think about on each play? It’s probably why Arians’ QBs always seem to be throwing into tight windows except for the occasional wide open man downfield. I don’t love it.
But anyway, I was disappointed in this ending. I think the team that has more good players should win. There’s a saying in football (and probably most team sports) that goes something like “you’re only as good as your worst player.” Tim’s worst five players combined for 5.1 FP. Spencer’s worst five combined for 18. But maybe in fantasy football, the saying should be, “you’re only as good as you’re best player.” Tim’s top two players combined for 92. Spencer’s combined for 67.
It’s also possible there’s no cute platitude to explain a loss. I’m fine with that.
Steampunk Overlord 171 – 154 Shy Poopers
Nick Chubb got the ball rolling with 30 on Thursday night. Evan missed out on 16 from OBJ that night, but his other WRs had similar scores. The crucial move was QB. Lucky for Evan, it didn’t matter that he got ten more points starting Big Ben than he would have from Wentz. This game came down to Oliver starting Drew Brees sans Michael Thomas over Matt Ryan fully loaded. Sure, the Saints have a better reputation, but on paper, Atlanta has the better fantasy offense. They are fully loaded at every position that catches passes, and they were playing the worse defense. Dallas is missing a player at basically every position, while the Raiders are more or less healthy across the board. That’s a deep cut, probably too much to prepare for when you have other considerations, but if you don’t know who your QB is first, you’re setting your lineup backwards.
Oliver obviously had a fine game. He would have kicked my ass (unless I started the Colts!). Evan had a better game, outscoring Oliver at every position except TE, DST, and DB.
JCor413 165 – 156 Slut Dragons
Corey had an eerily similar game to Tim. He had some total duds, but he lived this week’s axiom of being as good as his best player. I don’t know that you want your team to only be as good as Josh Allen, but so far we’re rolling. Technically Kennedy won this game. All he had to do was try something on defense. If he had just gone back to the Bears, he’d be 2-0 and Corey would be 1-1. Instead, we see this hideous -5.76 in the box score, and Corey’s undefeated after drafting Kamara over Saquon and starting Josh Allen over Tom Brady. The no-comfort-zone strategy is working! Man, Kennedy got 39 from his IDPs, our highest mark by over 10 points, and his RB trifecta continued to thrive, as did Oliver’s great regret, Travis Kelce. Corey survived despite a weak periphery, low-lighted by Gronk 0, Seattle 0.72, and Byard 2.5 thanks to a combined 86 from Allen and Kamara. In the long run, I’d pick Kennedy 9 of 10 times, especially if he gets a legitimate DST.
Squanchy’s Revenge 188 – 166 It Is What It Is
Coleman’s team takes this week’s axiom one step further. His best players are so good, he can afford to leave his third round pick on the bench with 28 points and still smash a very capable opponent. Russ, Zeke, Moore, McLaurin, and Ekeler scored 19 or more, with Russ topping out at 47. Shelby’s team looked great, finishing fourth highest in scoring, getting 17 from each of John Brown, Tucker, and the Ravens, on top of 70 combined from Kyler, Derrick Henry, and Tyreek. Some weeks, it’s just not enough, especially when bad information forces you to bench Khalil Mack. It also might be time to talk about Zach Ertz. I think every analyst this week decided that the Eagles are bad now. It’s possible, but wow, we’re making that call after two weeks during a ridiculously weird year? Okay. But even so, it’s the second week Ertz has had basically the same target share as Goedert. I don’t know what you do with that. It’s also time to talk about the 49ers defense. They’re heading into Week 3 without Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Dre Greenlaw and Richard Sherman. Oh, and Jimmy G is out, which makes you wonder whether they can control the ball on offense and keep the defense on the sideline—but also Jimmy G kind of suck? BUT their short-term schedule is favorable (NYG, PHI, MIA), but it feels like a trap. Those three offensive lines are arguably the worst in the league, so it stands to reason that even a broken D-line can hold its ground (though, to be fair, Jacksonville’s broken line didn’t do shit to hold Miami on Thursday). Eh, food for thought.
Tompa Bay Gronkaneers 192 – 130 The Replacements
The week’s best took on the week’s worst. Sean was technically the week’s worst, but he had two major injuries kill his week while Brian had just one medium one. Brian also started Daniel Jones, which has to make you wonder whether he’s serious about winning in the first place. Jonathan Taylor was the best player on Brian’s team, which is no surprise, but what is kind of a surprise is Isaiah Simmons. First, it makes no sense that Simmons has eligibility at DL. Second, Simmons recorded a tackle this week, but Sleeper never gave him any points, even after corrections. I told Brian it was karma for starting a player at DL despite that player never playing a snap at anything resembling DL, and I’m sticking to it.
Cameron’s DL wasn’t much better, recording just half a tackle. I feel good about jinxing Donald; I just wish I had thought to jinx more of these dudes. But as long as I’m not playing Cameron, I really don’t care. I would prefer parity in the league, meaning I would like this team to have a down year so that the Spencer and Oliver can get into the playoff mix, but it’s not like my team can do anything about it if things stay the way they are.
But so Cameron has hit on his picks. The Dak-Cooper stack is strong. Darren Waller might be as good in fantasy as Travis Kelce. Raheem Mostert really was the starter in SF (which is meaningless one way or another). Hopkins is still elite and possibly even better for fantasy. Melvin Gordon is just, like, there just in case, with his 15 FP per week?
Brian’s team isn’t bad, just like my team isn’t bad, but with at least a handful of teams in this league that a great, I just don’t see how either of us can finish with more than five or six wins putting in 120-130 points per week.
This week, I wanted to rig the schedule so that Lamar-Mahomes coincided with my matchup with Spencer, but I would have had to realign the entire schedule to make it work. So, we will have Lamar-Mahomes on Monday night this week, and then there will be a rematch of Lamar and Mahomes in Mortydome next week. As far as intrigue in our matchups for Week 3, there are three matchups of 1-1 teams, which will break up the eight-way tie for third place. With AJ Terrell practicing while COVID-positive just yesterday, these early season standings might be all we get. Nobody in the league seems to care right now since there are no other positive tests. I’m not a scientist, but I’m pretty sure that means he infected his teammates and they won’t know whether they’re positive for a few more days, meaning that if we wait for positive tests to decide who plays or not, then a bunch of COVID-positive Falcons are about to infect the Bears.
I’m not freaking out about it. Half the Marlins tested positive at the beginning of baseball season, and now they’re in the playoffs.
I don’t know what I’m talking about. Let’s preview some matchups.
Note: I don’t have a lot to say about actual football games because I’m barely watching them except for the Bucs and Ravens. I’m kind of looking at stats but mostly making assumptions based on rosters and injury reports. There are trends I’m missing, so as always, my predictions can be largely ignored. But sometimes I’m right.
QB Russ (v. DAL) over Dak (@SEA)
This is a nice coincidence. It should be a strong fantasy week for both QBs, but I’m giving the edge to the QB facing the worse defense. Adv. Coleman
RB Zeke (@SEA) over Gordon (v. TB)
Chalk. Adv. Coleman.
WR Hopkins (v. DET) over McLaurin (@CLE)
Chalk but also the matchup heavily favor Hopkins. He’s squaring off against a rookie DB, while McLaurin gets Denzel Ward and probably a double-team on top of that. Still ,you gotta start him. Adv. Cam.
WR Cooper (@SEA) over DJ Moore (@LAC)
The Cowboys will move their WRs around and exploit the mismatch, getting Cooper some relief from Shaq Griffin. Meanwhile, Moore will draw either Casey Hayward or Chris Harris on ever snap. I might even bench Moore for TY Hilton (v. NYJ). Adv. Cam.
TE Cook (v. GB) over Waller (@NE)
The Packers’ best LB is Christian Kirksey, and their safeties are small like Tampa’s, making me think Cook will have some solid yardage if not a score. Meanwhile, Old Bill is going to bracket Waller with Henry Ruggs OUT. Adv. Coleman.
FX Ekeler (v. CAR) over Some Trash Asshole (vs. WAS)
This and the QB matchup are Coleman’s big chances to swing the game. Carolina is awful, while Washington has an elite front-four, with the LBs getting better every week.
FX Shenault (6.4) and Dobbins (v. KC) push
Okay, let’s talk about Ravens-Chiefs. I am assuming a close game where each time scores 21-35 points. I like Dobbins’ odds better if the Ravens are winning. While he is the best receiver in Baltimore’s backfield, he only third best in pass pro. Either way, he will have seven to ten touches and will only best Shenault with a TD.
K don’t care
DST 49ers (@NYG) over Browns (v. WAS)
I don’t think either defense will have a good game, but Daniel Jones feels like a better lock for sacks and a turnover. I could actually see Washington running all over Cleveland. Their defense is soft. Adv. Coleman
DL JJ Watt (@PIT) over Donald (@BUF)
It’s the Watt game this week, with all three Watts playing in the same NFL game for the first time ever. I don’t like narrative stuff, but I think JJ will be feeling good and making plays. Meanwhile, Donald will get double-teamed all season long, with the Bills probably also designing roll outs to get Allen even farther away from him. Adv. Coleman
LB Demario over Littleton
Chalk. Littleton sucks. Adv. Cam
DB Harrison Smith over Adrian Phillips
Lazy chalk pick by me. Adv. Coleman.
Overall, the game appears to hinge on whether Cameron’s WRs can overcome Coleman’s RBs. Dak-Russ is the main event, of course, but the sketchy back-halves for both teams could be the deciding factor.
QB Kyler (v. DET) over Herbert (v. CAR)
Chalk. These are great matchups. Even if Detroit can’t ultimately keep the game competitive, Stafford’s presence threatens a late comeback, prompting Arizona to keep the pedal down into the fourth quarter regardless of the score. Herbert is a fun play. I think the RBs will dominate the game, and even if they don’t, Carolina will dial up the pressure, forcing Herbert into some bad throws. Even in a game manager role, Herbert could put up 200 pass yards, 50 rush, and a TD or two and have an okay day. No match for Kyler, though. Adv. Shelby.
RB Henry (@MIN) over Taylor (v. NYJ)
Zimmer and Williams are old school defensive coaches who will do all they can to keep the other team from beating them on the ground. The difference is that the Vikings don’t have a full defensive line, whereas the Jet’s line is quietly the best part of their team. Taylor beat up the Vikes last week. It’s Henry’s turn this week. Adv. Shelby.
WR Tyreek (@BAL) over Parker (10.9)
If the Chiefs want to win, they need a good game from Tyreek. Baltimore can clamp him down some, but not enough to hold him under 60 yards and a TD. Slight adv. Shelby.
WR Godwin (@DEN) over Thielen (v. TEN)
Denver’s corners are really bad, and Godwin is Brady’s favorite target. Thielen is Cousins’ favorite target, but Cousins is going to be smothered by Harold Landry and Jadeveon Clowney all game. Thielen could get in some good garbage time against a Titans’ D that allowed 30 points to Minshew.
TE Ertz (v. CIN) over Hurst (v. CHI)
Even splitting targets with Goedert, Ertz will feast on a Cincy defense that features zero legitimate cover LBs and severely undersized safeties. Hurst should get swallowed up by some combination of Roquan Smith and Eddie Jackson.
FX Singletary (v. LAR) over Golladay (@AZ)
With Zack Moss out, I’m hoping Singletary gets to play like 75% of snaps and see 25 touches. The volume alone is enough to take on Golladay, but I also think the Cardinals’ defensive plan will be to take the big receiver out of the game and make someone else beat them. Adv. Shelby.
FX CeeDee Lamb (@SEA) over John Brown (v. LAR)
Lamb being a third-string rookie works in his favor. Opposing teams can’t afford to key against him. They have to start with Zeke, Cooper, and Dak’s legs, and work their way to Lamb. If Dallas uses him right, he will draw the worst coverage the most often. Meanwhile, John Brown will benefit from Ramsey on Diggs, so this will be a close one. Slight adv. Brian.
Brian starting three rookies is just fantastic.
K Tucker over Succop
Chalk. Adv. Shelby.
DST Chargers (v. CAR) over Ravens (v. KC)
Chalk. The Chargers are without Ingram, but this only hurts their ceiling. The floor is probably ten points. The Ravens’ floor is the floor, but I would start them every week, too. They have the leadership, skill, athleticism and experience to force even Mahomes into bad decisions. Still, brace yourself for negative points. Adv. Brian.
DL Mack over Simmons
Chalk. Adv. Shelby.
LB Bush over Kirksey
Chalk. Adv. Shelby
DB Baker and Winfield push
Baker had the better Week 1, Winfield the better Week 2. Both of them are the kind of guys who get to the ball on most plays. Good double-digit candidates.
The only thing I’m hung up on is Herbert. While Kyler should outscore him by 15, I get the feeling Herbert will show out in a soft matchup. Still, it’s more likely that he doesn’t, so I’m expecting Shelby to keep up the high scoring and take this one. Can Brian really start a season 0-3, though?
Without even getting into it, I think each team will maintain the zero in their record.
QB Allen (v. LAR) over Burrow (@PHI)
I want to pick Burrow to get his first win against this struggling Philly squad, but I think it’s too cute. Even if the Eagles suck, I think the Bengals will overcorrect for the 60 attempts Burrow had in Week 2 and make this a Mixon game against a Philly team with no LBs or safeties. Meanwhile, the Bills will give Josh Allen every opportunity to prove himself. They feel confident in their ability to win the division with their defense, and they’re going to get Allen making mistakes and learning instead of protecting him. I love it. Adv. Corey.
RB Mixon (@ PHI) over Kamara (v. GB)
Kamara is better, and the matchup is similar, but I think Green Bay will key on Kamara and force the Saints to go elsewhere. Kamara will have double-digits, but Mixon will have 20+. Adv. Sean.
WR Hollywood (@KC) over Kupp (@BUF)
The Chiefs don’t have anyone who can cover Brown play after play. He will eventually amass 70 yards and hopefully a score or two. With Kupp, the end of last season and the start to this season might be what he is. He’s never been very fast, and he benefitted from being the third-string afterthought. Ever since Brandin Cooks’ injury last season, Kupp has proven he’s nothing special. Adv. Sean.
WR Juju (vs. HOU) over Robby (@LAC)
Each is the second target on an aggressive offense. The difference is Houston’s secondary is a joke. Adv. Corey.
TE Higbee (@BUF) and Engram (v. SF) push
Neither of these are good matchups, with these TEs going against two pairs of excellent cover LBs. I like Higbee a little better because of his size, but I would rather play Jordan Reed over either of these dudes, especially with Reed in a nice matchup.
FX Kenyan Drake (v. DET) over AJ Green (@PHI)
Chalk. Plus Green is going to be blanketed by Darius Slay. Adv. Corey.
FX DK Creatine (v. DAL) and Slayton (v. SF) push
DK will get the worse Dallas corner, and Dallas has injuries at the position. I thought Belichick did a bad job having Gilmore press DK. Film-grinders I trust have said DK beats press coverage easily but has nowhere to go when the DBs play off. I like Slayton to match him because Richard Sherman is out for SF and Sterling Shpeard is out for NYG. Slayton normally does his damage on seven or eight targets, and this week he’ll get like 13.
K Butker over Boswell
Chalk. Adv. Sean.
DST Steelers (v. HOU) over Seahawks (v. DAL)
Chalk. And I would be afraid of negative points for the Seahawks.
DL Jordan over Hicks
Chalk. Adv. Corey
LB Wagner and Hicks push
Two tackle-monsters with probable scores around 11 FP.
DB Poyer over Byard
Byard is a better overall player, but Poyer always has more FP. Adv. Sean.
I guess it’s closer than I initially thought. But if Allen has another 40-pointer, will it matter that everything else was close?
Tim might have to rework the team name. I don’t know what that comeback last week was, if not luck. I’m curious who Tim will start this week. Newton has the better matchup, so I think we’ll see him again.
QB Newton (v. LV) over Wentz (v. CIN)
Evan is betting that no matter how bad Wentz looks, Cincy will look worse. I like it but not as much as I like Cam Newton to fuck up the day for an average NFL defense. Adv. Tim.
RB Jones (@NO) over Chubb (v. WAS)
It’s mostly volume driving this call. Jones will see more work because he has a more complete skill set and less competition in his backfield. The matchups aren’t good at all, but either has a fine chance to find the endzone. Slight adv. Tim.
WR Lockett (v. DAL) over Miller (@ATL)
Yeah that’s Anthony Miller starting at the top of Tim’s WRs. With Cam Newton as good as he’s been, I bet Tim wishes he’d left Watson alone and spent that high pick on another WR. Anyway, chalk. Adv. Evan.
WR Keenan (v. CAR) over Fuller (@PIT)
Fuller is matchup proof in that who he’s playing does not affect whether he has zero or 25 points. He can do anything on any given Sunday. Keenan is good for exactly 12 points on every Sunday. Adv. Evan.
TE Henry (v. CAR) over Gesicki (7.5)
I’d have picked Gesicki before the game, but I think Henry can get in the endzone and add more than 15 yards on top of it. Adv. Evan.
FX Sanders over Gurley
Chalk. But also Sanders gets Cincy. Adv. Evan.
FX OBJ over Watkins
Chalk. Adv. Evan.
K Koo over Gonzalez
I just like Koo.
DST Bucs (@DEN) and Pats (v. LV) push
The altitude plus the surprise factor of Driskel being decent will lower the Bucs’ ceiling enough for the Pats’ couple sacks and turnovers to make this a close one.
DL Bosa (v. CAR) over Young (@CLE)
I thought this was close, so I went to the matchups. Jack Conklin is in, so Cleveland will have the edges on lockdown, even against a solid Washington front. Carolina is fucking bad, so I like Bosa to tear it up, probably get a strip sack off Teddy.
LB David and Leonard push
I’m loving this back-half sub-matchup so far. Evan has the advantage on offense everywhere but QB, but Tim’s will keep it close among these way less impactful scorers.
DB Abrams over Amos
Abrams is a new-school safety that plays in the box and rushes the passer and shit. Amos is a quality player but will need PBUs or a pick to compete with Abrams’ tackling floor. Adv. Evan.
I mean… yeah, Tim will need luck to survive this matchup.
Another balance shifter. Oliver was a frontrunner before all the injuries. He should be back near the top when his guys return, but you never know with some of these injuries, especially if guys are rushing back. If Oliver loses here, target him in trade talks next week. I’m not saying he’ll bend over for it, but he’ll be feeling pretty antsy to change the luck and get back on track.
QB Mahomes over Ryan
Chalk. Even last week, Mahomes played a great defense while Ryan played a trash one, and they finished within a point of each other. Adv. Spe.
RB Conner (v. HOU) over CEH (@BAL)
The Texans allowed 130 yards to CEH two weeks ago. Conner is a similar talent who should see similar defensive alignment. Meanwhile, CEH plays a stout run defense and will probably finish with about the nine points he had last week, unless he finds the endzone. Adv. Oliver.
WR Gallup (@SEA) over Diggs (v. Ramsey)
Yeah, it’s that simple. Adv. Oliver.
WR Ridley (@CHI) over Woods (@BUF)
Ridley. So hot right now. Ridley. Adv. Spe.
TE Jonnu (@MIN) over Hockenson (@AZ)
Minnesota’s strength is in it’s LB corps, especially in the middle with Kendricks, consistently one of the league’s best cover LBs. Even if the Titans scheme Jonnu away from him, Harrison Smith will probably pick it up. Still, I expect targets and a touchdown, while Hockenson gets totally swallowed up by myriad talent in the middle of Arizona’s defense. Slight adv. Oliver.
FX Montgomery (@ATL) over DeSean (v. CIN)
Chicago has shown a commitment to use Montgomery in all phases. A three-down back will always have the advantage over a boom-bust WR like DeSean, who has a nice matchup and should score a TD, which would be enough to make this a push. Slight adv. Oliver.
FX McKinnon (@NYG) over Landry (v. WAS)
Spencer won’t trade me McKinnon, so I’ll just give away my thoughts on this: I think the 49ers could use him as an option QB while Jimmy is out, which could be a whole month. McKinnon was a triple-option QB his entire college career. It would be a weird move by SF, but it’s possible. Nick Mullens is a good QB, but they just have so many injuries, they might try something the defense won’t have planned for. Even in the standard 49ers offense with Mullens at QB, McKinnon looks good for 100 scrimmage yards per game. Meanwhile, Landry’s drawing Kendall Fuller in coverage. Adv. Spe.
K Lutz over Myers
Chalk.
DST Bills (v. LAR) over Giants (v. SF)
This is a bad call by Oliver, who would be better off sticking with the Rams D. Spencer is succumbing to a kind of homerism here, but I don’t hate it. As good as the Rams’ offense was last week, that was against a shit Eagles D. And the Bills may have stunk against Miami, but that was without Tremaine and Milano, who are back this week. Adv. Spe.
DL JPP and Chandler Jones push
LB Devin White over Fred Warner
White has just been so dominant, on the field and in fantasy.
DB Adams over Mathieu
Chalk.
Spencer appears to have the edge with his QB and FLEX action. I think besides Oliver’s DST, both teams have their best lineups in already.
For different reasons, these are two teams I did not expect to start 1-1. I’m feeling encouraged by my recent win, especially since starting the Colts D would have given me more points than Kennedy had in Week 2.
QB Lamar over Rodgers
Sidewalk chalk mural, regardless of matchup. Adv. Me.
RB Robinson (29.9) over Jacobs (@NE)
I might have had Jacobs over Robinson, but New England always has a good run defense, and Jacobs is walking funny after hurting his hip on Monday. Adv. Me.
WR Diontae (v. HOU) over Robinson (@ATL)
I’m buying the hype on Diontae. He fumbled on like his first play of the season, then went on to lead that game in targets. Then he led targets in last week’s game. He’s the number one WR in Pittsburgh! Robinson is the #1 WR with a better matchup, but Trubisky has been so bad. Robinson leads the team in targets and has caught every catchable target thrown his way. The problem: it’s only been eight. Eight catchable targets in two games. Adv. Me.
WR Boyd (@PHI) over Harry (v. LV)
With Slay locking down Green, Boyd will get plenty of action over the middle. Harry saw a lot of targets last week, though, so he could volume his way to a win in this one. Slight adv. Me.
TE Kelce over Andrews.
Sadly, chalk.
FX Dalvin (v. TEN) over Mike Evans (@DEN)
Evans has the better matchup, but Cook has the guaranteed volume. Adv. K.
FX Carson (v. DAL) over Marvin Jones, maybe
I haven’t decided whether to start Jones, but no matter who I start, Carson will destroy them in this slot. This is the secret sauce for Kennedy. You think you have maybe an even stack at the top of the lineup, then he drops two stud RBs against your worst players. Adv. K.
K Barco Blanco and Old Gould push
I’m feeling super sketchy about both of these guys.
DST Colts (v. NYJ) over Eagles (v. CIN)
See, okay, even though the Eagles should win the game, the Bengals have a good offense. Meanwhile, the Colts should win their game because the Jets have a bad offense. Adv. Me.
DL Watt and Garrett push
LB Jaylon Smith over Patrick Queen
Chalk.
DB Landon Collins over Keanu Neal
Chalk.
I’ll put it this way: my team does not have the ability to run away with the game, so my hope is that this game is close because logically that is the most likely chance I have to win at all. I wish me luck.
Okay, I neglected to do a Bucs thing, so here:
I still don’t like Tom Brady. I am having more fun watching the Ravens’ games than the Bucs’. The Ravens do interesting things on offense. They use all of their players, and they do it in ways that makes the defense look like they’re sleeping. Last week, they brought in extra linemen and took out Lamar. They lined up Ingram and Ricard in a heavy shotgun and direct snapped it to Ingram, who busted through the line for a 30-yard sprint to the endzone. Meanwhile, the Bucs are calling plays that rely on Tom Brady trying to throw it into a keyhole even against one of the worst defenses in the league, and THEN they’re nearly blowing a 21-0 lead against this dog shit team because they take their foot off the gas early in the game.
I will say: I think Brady is making mostly good throws with what is probably good velocity on them. I am concerned about the way people talk about Brady like we expect him to be bad in some way. It’s classic Bucs quarterbackery. There’s always some defect we’re all thinking even when we’re not saying it. Usually it’s just that they’re bad. In Brady’s case, it’s that he’s on the verge of being suddenly and inexplicably bad like Peyton in his final season. I am mortified just thinking about Tom Brady’s career mortality. I just want to watch Jameis chuck grenades and eat Ws!
I greatly enjoy watching out defense. Our youth shows in good ways and bad. We get caught in bad positions, but we make splash plays that make up for it. What I like most, besides just dominating the faces of our opponents, is that it’s a completely different look from the defense that won the Super Bowl. An invested Bucs fan has learned the 4-3 Cover 2 inside and out and now has the chance to learn a 3-4 press man in its entirety. Add in Dungy inventing the Tampa 2, dropping the MLB deep into the middle, and consider that Todd Bowles invented the moneybacker, which some people think is a failed concept, but it created the position that Tyrann Mathieu and Jamal Adams play today. The Steelers and Pats and Ravens have their great defenses, but all of them have been in the 3-4. I guess the trade-off is those fifteen years of rank bong water in between.
I hope to see more out of the Bucs’ offense, and I think obviously we should eventually. My skepticism is about how, even when the offense is clicking, the only time anyone gets open is when there’s a busted coverage downfield. There’s almost never a design that creates yards of open space around a guy running horizontally like we see in the best modern offenses. It’s possible we lack the speed, which is why Scotty Miller is becoming a fixture. Godwin and Evans are great athletes, but they don’t have that elite speed you see in San Fran, Baltimore, KC, etc.
Okay, I’m done. No segue, no closer, just a tired commissioner ready for NFL action.
