(as always, forgive the formatting)
Let's get straight to the recaps, starting with the winners:
Aaron Rodgers was #1 overall, and Josh Jacobs was tied for #2. Every other player on Kennedy’s offense scored in double digits, with Cook and Carson going for 20 each. With 80 points combined, Kennedy’s triple-headed rushing attack realistically couldn’t have done better. Meanwhile, Allen Robinson and DJ Chark were good, but you have to feel like they’ll be better. So if Kennedy can maintain that balancing act, he will continue to be a favorite to reach the playoffs, if not further. The defense was lackluster, and the DST was downright awful. Despite allowing only three points through three quarters, the Lions somehow finished Sundays contest having allowed 27 points and dipping just below zero in fantasy points as a result. And Kennedy’s IDPs showed their floors, which is good?
There was a moment there when it looked like Kennedy would challenge the scoring record, but he’ll have to settle for the cash win.
Shelby was sort of forced into starting Kyler Murray in a bad matchup after keeping him and drafting Mayfield, who was going against not only an elite defense but Shelby’s own at that. But Kyler went to San Fran and took it to 2019’s top defense, not just for fantasy points but for the win. And the common observation among analysts was that Kyler avoided being hit the entire game. As a passer, he didn’t do anything special. He threw half of his passes to DeAndre Hopkins, and then he ran for 100 yards. But Doak, the stat line says 91 yards. Well, for some reason, Kliff Kingsbury decided that Kyler needs to kneel from the shotgun, so he lost nine rushing yards on the final two plays. Adam Thielen looks to be worth the 15th overall pick, and while most of it was in garbage time, it was huge chunks of yardage against a solid secondary. I really enjoy that you can play two Bills and get solid production. The Bills did something really interesting on Sunday. Despite boat-racing the Jets, the Bills didn’t run clock in the second half. Instead, they treated it as a sort of live practice for their pass offense. They led the league in four-WR sets while they did it. I doubt the efficacy, as the Jets are such a demoralized team that they probably play with less intensity suffering a blowout than the Bills defense would in practice, but it shows they are a smart team doing smart things, which portends well for their playoff chances. The draft capital Shelby spent on Tucker and the Ravens proved worth it, and even though they don’t play the Browns every week, the Browns game was probably a good average for what the Ravens can accomplish on a weekly basis. Khalil Mack and Tremaine Edmunds were very disappointing due to injuries, and with all the LB talent out there, Tremaine is droppable. Mack is the worst kind of player to own: you’re nervous to play him, but you’re even more nervous to bench him, and you can’t drop him, but you also can’t hope to get any kind of value trading him with that Questionable tag always there.
It’s too soon to talk about Zach Ertz or the Eagles in general. They were without the starting RB and three(!) starting linemen against what will be an elite defensive line this season. They were bound to lose. Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders return this week, and we will see a different team. BUT there is a chance this coaching staff is a clusterfuck whose best days are behind them.
It’s not too soon to talk about the WR depth on this team, a lot of acquired late in the draft. Jamison Crowder, John Brown, and Mike Williams won’t make Shelby’s starting decisions harder, hopefully, but they will make her bye weeks easier.
Even without a starting defense, Oliver’s superteam managed to finish third thanks to huge outputs from the NFC South and potential steal of the draft Jamal Adams, who we thought might be watered down in Seattle’s system, but Seattle’s coaching staff seemingly admitted Sunday that they are willing to change their game to stay successful. But yeah so I need to talk about Christian McCaffrey, and I need to go back to what his OC said about his usage last year. OC Joe Brady, again known for profiting off of the most talented offensive roster in college football last year, said he thought McCaffrey got the right amount of work in 2019, but maybe not in the right spots. So he went out and ran him 23 times while only getting him four targets. If this holds up as the plan to get him the right kinds of touches, Christian McCaffrey will not finish the season, let alone finish the season as a league-winning fantasy RB. I know he had 31 points. 18 of them were from first downs and TDs. I know he had 130 yards, but you don’t want to see him getting there by taking 25 hits. And then, with the game on the line, in the moment they definitely should have given McCafe the short-distance plunge for a seventh first down, they hand it to Alex Armah. What? Who?
Oliver’s team also disappointed at the RB position. McCafe was hot, but the 2/3 turn picks Conner and Bell were hot garbage. Granted, Oliver benched Bell, but it makes you wonder: why spend the 25th pick on a player you can bench in Week 1? Eh, ‘cause you got the win. Fine. FINE. With Conner and Bell both hurt, though, you’ve gotta wonder about Oliver’s level of regret, even with all the depth. Ugh and then Kittle went down. It’s especially though since WE ALL KNEW YOU SHOULD’VE TAKEN KELCE.
Still, great depth. Jonnu is going to be a solid starter while Kittle is out, and David Montgomery will take fill the flex hole. Everything else here, including the kicker and IDPs, provide enough stability that having to figure out one flex spot per week won’t affect Oliver’s psyche. Again, he hit 160 without a defense. (Granted, Kennedy hit 197, also technically sans defense.)
It is no surprise who Spencer’s top scorer will be every week, but it had to be that Spencer found a gem when he reached for CEH at 5th overall. 25 carries, 138 yards, and nothing in the passing game. Gamescript matters. It allowed the Chiefs to run a lot and get a long look at their new toy. Darrel Williams played all of the obvious passing downs, which means in close games early on, CEH won’t get as much work. BUT by midseason, CEH should start to see snaps in all situations. Calvin Ridley had basically the exact same stats as Julio. In fact, all three of Atlanta’s starting WRs had the same stats, except Ridley had the TDs. Hockenson is definitely in the running to be Spencer’s new Kittle, and Stefon Diggs is a Bill you can believe in! Mark Ingram was a dud, and Spe, if you feel like it’s time to jump ship, do it. Send me that trade offer. I believe OC Greg Roman when he says the backfield rotation will look different every week. I’m hoping that Spencer stays true to staying away from rotating his players. The urge to tinker is hard to suppress. We want to play the game, which means making moves. I thought Spencer did a good job concentrating those urges into his kicker and DL. I was very sad to lose Chandler Jones, but he’s ultimately excess baggage when I have TJ Watt eligible at DL. I am jealous of Devin White as LB, who will probably be a top-5 LB this season. He’s not better than Lavonte yet, which plays to his advantage in fantasy, since teams could scheme to avoid Lavonte and land a bunch of opportunity in White’s lap.
This bench was tragic in Week 1. OJ Howard was the lone productive player, with Henry Ruggs showing flashes but inevitably getting banged up (to put it kindly, he lacks bulk). Hardman, Cooks, and Cohen should all be on notice. But with a solid starting lineup, there’s time to wait and see how things look in a couple weeks.
Russ and Zeke combined for half of Coleman’s points, and somehow that’s a recipe for success. I guess even though the other scores on offense don’t look like much, they average out to ten points per for the WRs, TE, and FXs. I guess that’s all it takes because this defense stunk. Watt, Littleton, and Harrison Smith combined for 12 points, while Greg Z and the Niners combined for 10. If you get 22 from your back half and win, I guess your offense is pretty great. I hate it because my IDPs combined for 30, and I lost by a lot. But so Coleman has a squad, and even though Watt and Smith disappointed, I believe in regression, and they will be scoring closer to ten most weeks. I don’t believe in Cory Littleton. When the opposing team rushes 25 times, you expect your MLB to contribute more than six tackles, half of them assisted. He’s just not good enough to start for your team. Go get you some Jerome Baker. Um, what else? Coleman’s keepers were the worst part of his offense, but that’s not a diss. This offense is just thriving. This is another case of those 2/3 turn RBs not living up to their draft capital, though. Ekeler is fine, but it appears rookie Josh Kelley is going to steal meaningful work. Fournette looked slow on Sunday, which matches what film-grinders have said about him all offseason. I hoped he was just lethargic in Jacksonville, and I hope he’s just adjusting to finding the holes behind the Bucs’ line, but my hope is weaker today than it was a week ago. He’s not droppable, startable, or tradeable, which is dumb. Coleman can do without Fournette, which is to say that he can carry dead weight without significant penalty. The rest of his bench appears ready to contribute while we get a definitive answer on Fournette. My gut says he has a better shot at stealing McCoy’s snaps than RoJo’s. Keep in mind that in just nine snaps, Fournette got the ball six times. The coaches want him to happen.
Though Russ and Zeke will probably cool a little, it’s easy to see the rest of the team heating up and delivering more than the 145 total from Week 1.
My favorite thing ever is when a team has three QBs, starts the obviously best one, and watches him score the fewest points. That’s peak fantasy football for me. Brady didn’t suck, but he did turn 3 TDs into only 21 FP. That’s bad. That means everything else he did in the game amounted to 3 FP. Brady lost ten points to picks, sacks, fumbles, and the bonus -2 for a pick six. The refrain this week: “Jameis could’ve done that.” I agree. I believe Jameis was capable of taking us to the Super Bowl. I believed it last year! Why wouldn’t he be better now? The problem is that our coaches clearly didn’t have faith. Our owner and GM were comfortable spending $25M when they could’ve spent $5M. So now we get Brady, 43 and learning a new offense with a bunch of new coaches and players, and there just isn’t a lot of precedent for this leading to a Super Bowl. The last QB to even make the Super Bowl in his first year with a team was Jake Delhomme in 2003. The last to win was Trent Dilfer in 2000. What they have in common is that no one expected them to lead the team to the Super Bowl, partially because they’d done nothing special before those seasons, but mostly because the defenses were elite and in Baltimore’s case historic. We are banking on either Tom Brady being the most significant player in the history of football or the Bucs’ defense being historic. Anyway, Corey’s team doesn’t need Tom Brady to be good. He can put in his 20 a week as the starter and count on most of his other starters to contribute. That Gronk/Engram combo that never made sense looked very, very bad, which might actually work in Corey’s favor as perhaps opposing defenses pay them less attention in the coming weeks. Everything else, aside from Leighton Vander Esch’s broken collarbone, looked great. The Chargers defense did its job against a rookie QB playing for perhaps the worst team in the league, which I don’t think Corey will be able to count on every week. No, in fact, they play Mahomes this week, so I think that honeymoon is over. But a Charger you can count on delivering about what he did in Week 1 is Josh Kelley: 12 carries and a lot of it in short-distance situations (which is straight cash in our scoring).
Josh Allen and Teddy had cush matchups, while Brady had a brutal one, so I definitely don’t think for a second about switching anything there. It’ll be nice if the cash game ever includes bench points, though.
Now, the losers…
I’ll get it out of the way: if Saquon had done anything like the other RBs drafted in the first round, Sean would have secured the melee win. It’s that simple. Nine points from Saquon compared to 30, 30, 20, 25, 39, and 22 from the RBs drafted around him. Credit to the Steelers’ defense, but fuck you, Giants’ offense! You should be able to scheme your best player more than six yards on 15 carries—he was good in the passing game, meaning they should have flipped his carries and targets in order to leverage what the defense was giving them, but that’s Monday-morning quarterbacking on my part. Saquon will be better, but damn that was a let-down. If he’d just had 14, Sean gets the win. Heart-breaking stuff. There’s a lot to like about the rest of Sean’s team. Stafford had 20 without his best WR, and he would’ve had 27 if D’Andre Swift had… it’s better if I don’t relive it. I saw it live, and it physically hurt even though I didn’t care who won. Let’s talk about David Johnson looking good against a defense designed to only stop passing plays—SEVEN yards per carry! There is just no way to sustain it, but there is a way to sustain the amount of first downs Johnson saw in pretty limited work. On 13 touches, DJ had six first downs and a TD. 13 touches kind of sucks, but with Duke Johnson getting banged up, that number should go up. The final output probably won’t be better, as Houston gets Baltimore in Week 2. I am in love with the production from Sean’s back half, a combined 21 from Butker and the Steelers D, then a solid 12 from Wagner—we’ll see that most weeks—as well as respectable points from Bosa and Poyer. After one week, Sean is winning the Poyer-Smith trade, albeit by like a point and a half.
Long-term, Sean seems to have drafted the right 2/3 RBs in Mixon and DJ, which is a nice reversal of his first-round fortune.
Tim had awful luck in Week 1. His supposedly best player does basically nothing, meanwhile he could have secured a win by starting Cam Newton over Deshaun Watson, which is a sentence that makes sense but somehow surprises you at the same time. Tim ends the week 8th in scoring, but it was a mostly good week! He had nine players do their jobs, with only Thomas (2.7), Gesicki (4), and Rapp (1) failing to contribute. I could’ve predicted Gesicki would disappoint, and if my best TE were Mike Gesicki, I would 100% dropped him and started either Jimmy Graham or Greg Olsen, either of whom would’ve also delivered a win for Tim. Again, MMQB’ing over here, but I really would have started Jimmy Graham over Mike Gesicki and you all know me well enough to know I’m dead-ass when I say it. But so Tim got 16s from Aaron Jones, Fuller, and Ant Miller, got 15 from the Pats D we all crucified him for, but I bet Tim’s gotta be feeling pretty let down looking at Cal Ridley’s 31, knowing he wanted to keep him before we murdered him for that, too. Tim, don’t listen to anyone but you, unless of course you are listening to me tell you Haha Clinton-Dix was cut like 10 days after it happened, and somehow you kept him on your team. Tim, he is worthless without a team to play for! But if your gut says hold onto this decaying piece of beach litter, do you. Joey Bosa and Darius Leonard deserved a better IDP teammate than Rapp gave them on Sunday. I like Rapp and expect more out of him, but for some reason neither Rams safety did anything. They crushed last season, so I don’t know what’s up there.
Younghoe Koo was successful on yet another onside kick attempt. The Falcons should onside kick every time. I need someone to do the math on what kind of points are added when you improve the other team’s average field position by 25 yards by decrease the amount of drives they have on offense by one third. I feel like the math says do that shit, and I know more people would watch Falcons’ games, if only on RedZone.
Such a disgusting display. Cameron somehow yet again has one of the best teams in the league. You go down the roster, and there are points everywhere. With no backup QB, he got pretty close to matching Corey’s bench score, just getting solid production from backup RBs, WRs, TEs, even LB. I tried to bury this team in the last note, and it only half worked. He lost the melee, but that’s because he started the Minnesota defense. If he had started no defense at all, he would’ve edged Corey for the sixth spot. I don’t say these things about coulda/woulda/shoulda to have any impact other than to show you how close most of our league was to getting a win. But in this case, while we couldn’t guess Minnesota would get throttled, we could have maybe kept in mind that all of their corners have like four games of starting experience combined, playing against an offense that returned basically all of its starters. They will probably be a decent secondary the next time they play Green Bay, but this was bad. For the record, I failed to see it, too. I think the Hunter injury killed them. They couldn’t rush, and they couldn’t cover. I think having been able to rush would’ve mitigated the damage by about half. But anyway, Mostert and Hopkins each had 150 yards in the same game, while Cooper, Edelman, and Hunt hit modest double digits. It was a nice week. Minnesota killed you, and I think with Mostert so grossly overachieving, you’re in for more disappointment in Week 2, and it’s the worst kind of disappointment since it’s a relatively high score but ultimately a loss that counts the same as all the others you are bound to endure this fantasy season.
Yeah, I am not proud of my Randall Cobb tomfoolery, and I was truly saddened that it didn’t matter anyway because most of my team is so trash. Like Coleman, I got nearly half of my total points from two players, but I guess that’s not how wins and losses are decided. I even had two IDPs in double digits, but again, that’s not an indicator of success, especially when eight of your players score single digits. Still, I had the points on my roster to win. It’s not to say, “I should have started James Robinson and Allen Lazard over Cam Akers and Randall Cobb, respectively;” it just provides a spark of hope that the points it takes to win are not out of reach. But yeah, I hated my team of misfits last Sunday. Marvin Jones is more productive against opposing teams’ second CB, so I need Kenny G to get healthy. I failed to reason that Tyler Boyd would get shadowed by Chris Harris, so even though he received high-leverage targets, he didn’t get enough. Mike Evans… pffft. I really enjoyed TJ Watt getting 12 points despite recording just one tackle. I also gushed over Patrick Queen being my third highest scorer behind Lamar and Mark Andrews. Cameron made fun of me for my Ravens love, but let me show you something: a team that started all Ravens, that would be Lamar, Ingram, Dobbins, Boykin, Hollywood, Andrews, Snead, Tucker, DST, Calais Campbell, Queen, and Marlon Humphrey—and that’s not cherry picked, those would just be the guys who played or scored the most last year—would have scored 167 points in Week 1. That’s literally front-to-back Ravens, and that would have been good for third in points in our league. Trust me, if I could make the moves to make that happen, I would do it! I mean, I wouldn’t actually do it because I don’t believe Snead and Boykin can combine for 18 every week, nor do I see Calais Campbell posting 10 on his own every week, but I believe that on-average, that 12-man lineup is as good as the one I’m actually starting every week. I don’t believe I can afford Ingram, Dobbins, Hollywood, Tucker, and the DST. I believe the last two are impossible to trade for because they are so stable at positions typically immersed in chaos. If I weren’t the reigning champ, I’d be upset about it.
But what I’m really upset about, reigning or no, is that the day before the draft I wanted to spend the 12th overall pick on Jonathan Taylor—Oliver has receipts—but I couldn’t pull the trigger. And now Jonathan Taylor is going to be a top-5 fantasy RB.
Brian almost did it. He had Minshew in the starting spot all week, and somehow he blames me for “getting in his head,” which caused him to drop Minshew outright and start Goff. I’m not mad about it. I believe in Minshew as my good luck charm, and I will gladly roster a player I have no plans to play (outside of Lamar’s bye) for the entire season. Despite doubling Goff’s points, Minshew wouldn’t have moved the needle. Brian needed an extra 25 to sniff the sixth spot in Week 1, so he would have had to start Minshew and start Jonathan Taylor over Kerryon Johnson and pick up a legitimate LB to start over Isaiah Simmons. Even though these are seemingly obvious choices, in hindsight but also at the time, it’s just not reasonable to do the coulda/woulda/shoulda thing. Sometimes you just catch bad beats based on decisions you made despite good information because of self-hatred and denial. That’s just life sometimes. But there is hope for the team, of course. Davante Adams is pacing the league in targets, catches, and yards. Godwin and Golladay are hurt but not long-term. Hayden Hurst will get the benefit of teams guarding those three Falcons WRs way tighter from now on. Marlon Mack and JT were going to be a nice 1-2 punch, but now you can seemingly get all the punch from JT and… well, it’s not like you have another starting RB ready to roll, but you do get to give CeeDee Lamb some love. He played 80% of Cowboys snaps in Week 1. He’s crushing already. Damn, Brian got slammed with injuries maybe as bad as Oliver did. He had four potential starters either get hurt or not play in Week 1, with two of them already out for the year. That’s yikes!
Also, this Ryan Succop move feels insane, but I guess I can’t fault anyone for picking up kickers tied to good offenses. If he had made the 50-yarder where nobody blocked for him, he’d have had 11 points in our league.
Look, when you’re this far down the list, my energy for punny headlines just plum runs out. And I don’t want to linger too long on this pukefest anyway. This team sucked in Week 1. We already know there’s a bounceback starting in Week 2 (I’m writing this on Saturday) with Nick Chubb getting right against an awful, just awful Bengals defense. We know Wentz is getting his RT and RB back while playing a worse D-line (Aaron Donald notwithstanding). Evan… I don’t understand dropping Aaron Donald. Honestly, I’m low-key mad about it. He had 7.5. That’s acceptable if not good. And worse, Cameron gets him?! What the hell, man? What. The. Hell. For Chase Young, fine. Fine. I don’t like it, but I understand the thought process. I see how you don’t view your other pieces as droppable, and there wasn’t a good window to trade where you wouldn’t maybe miss a chance at Young, so you did what you had to do. Sure. Drop the best DL (albeit only a top-10 in fantasy with all the newly eligible DL) for a very promising rookie. But making Cameron’s team better is against the rules, sir! And you will pay!
Let’s look at Week 2, shall we?
There was a battle for Bengals’ supremacy brewing here, with Sean starting Mixon and Green, with potential to even start Burrow against a sketchy Browns’ D, but I am lucky to have avoided that and to have somehow used only Tyler Boyd to outscore Mixon and Green. Let’s go line by line for the weekend slate.
QB Lamar (@HOU) over Stafford (@GB) –
Houston has a quality front-seven, which will pose some problems for Lamar running, but that secondary is maybe the worst in football. Vernon Hargreaves is a starter in Houston! I think Lamar can repeat his FP from Week 1. Stafford gets a tough matchup, on the road with some wind against a pretty solid pass defense. Without Golladay, I think the best-case scenario is Green bay blowing them out and giving Stafford a full half of garbage time. Advantage Doak.
RB Barkley (@CHI) over Robinson (@TEN) –
They both play decent defenses, and Barkley is the clearly superior player, even if Robinson has the better line. Advantage Sean.
WR Evans (v. CAR) over Hollywood (@HOU) –
Carolina lacks a shutdown corner, and with Godwin out, Evans will get his ten targets. I believe Mike Evans was in Tom Brady’s doghouse for that misread early last week, and I think Tom Brady’s a prick for it. I’m hoping the super-skilled corner fade TD is a sign of things to come. Hollywood can probably carve up Houston’s secondary and make this close. Slight advantage Doak.
WR Boyd over Green
This already happened.
TE Andrews over Higbee
The details do not matter. Advantage Doak.
FX David Johnson over Diontae Johnson
Mostly just an opportunity call here. I actually think it’s reasonable they both score about 12 points, though. Slight advantage Sean.
FX Mixon over Akers
I am stubbornly starting Akers until he gets fewer than 10 carries in a game. I believe he will steal this starting job eventually. I also have little faith in the players on my bench and am not at all confident in my ability to manage my bench. Advantage Sean
K Butker over Bailey
Chalk. Advantage Sean. Also I might drop Bailey, but it doesn’t matter.
DST Steelers over Colts
Chalk. Advantage Sean.
DL Watt over Bosa
In most situations it would be a push, but Bosa will be going against Mekhi Becton, who could swallow him whole. Advantage Doak.
LB Wagner over Queen
But just barely! Teensy-weensy advantage Sean
DB Keanu over Poyer
Just because. Advantage Doak.
I think that means I win? I wish Sean had found a way to start Parris Campbell in this game. I think he’s going to be huge, but I wouldn’t start him over any of the RBs or Hollywood. I think I would have reasoned to start Burrow, which would have enabled me to bench Green, especially since I liked Browns DB Denzel Ward to shutdown Green anyway. But now, I don’t see a path in. Knowing how good Baltimore’s D is, I might make a case to start Parris over DJ, but I also started Randall Cobb, so I am not to be trusted.
QB Big Ben (v. DEN) over Brees (@LV)
This one is complicated since I think at least one of these teams will start the wrong QB. Ryan and Brees are both on the road playing soft defenses. It comes down to what you think will happen with Michael Thomas officially ruled out. Will Payton’s creatively unlock Brees’s fantasy ceiling? Maybe. I would opt for Ryan. We know that offense rules, and Dallas’s defense is a hot mess.
Re: Big Ben vs. Wentz, I supposed the combination of Donald and Ramsey are enough to scare me off of Wentz, too. Meanwhile, Denver has zero capable CBs, and Pittsburgh’s starting WRs are just effing gross. Advantage Evan. Even if Oliver were starting Matt Ryan, it would be a push.
RB Chubb (v. CIN) over McCafe (@TB)
I probably would have picked this way regardless but knowing already that Chubb dropped 30, yeah, it’s over. The Bucs might no shut down McCaffrey, but also, they totally will.
WR Julio (@DAL) over Lockett (v. NE)
Chalk for days. Advantage Oliver. Another reason I’d just start Ryan. I see how Julio is a must-start and it’s not necessarily an “I believe he’ll have a good day for X reason” kind of situation, but Julio will have a good day, and the reason is that the Cowboys have one corner and half a safety trying to keep up with four receivers we know can produce.
WR Woods (@PHI) and Allen (v. KC) push
I see more volume for Allen but more efficiency for Woods. It’s boring analysis, but these are more or less boring fantasy assets. They might even have the exact same stats.
TE Jonnu (v. JAX) over Henry (v. KC)
I think we see similar volume between these two, with higher efficiency for Jonnu. Honestly, whoever scores a TD wins this one, so I’m not committed. Slight advantage Oliver.
FX Mopportunity (v. NYG) and Sanders (v. LAR) push
Benny Snell trounced the Giants D, and I think the Bears, knowing they stole a win in Detroit, should pound the rock in this one. I think considering the shambles that is the Giants’ secondary, Biscuit could air it out and succeed, but that will only open up room to run for the Bears’ only between-the-tackles runner. Miles Sanders should see as much work, if not more, but for some reason I give him less chance to score a TD.
FX RoJo (v. CAR) over Gallup (v. ATL)
I’m realizing this could be a high-scoring matchup between Oliver and Evan, as I feel like both of these players are quality starters in reasonably favorable matchups, which describes most, if not all, of the player before them. Sight adv. Evan.
K Lutz over Gonzalez
Chalk. Adv. Oliver
DST Bills (@MIA) over Rams (@PHI)
The Dolphins really sucked against the Pats last week, and the Bills D might be an even tougher matchup. I don’t have any faith in the Rams D, especially with Philly come off a loss, playing at home, and adding a few starters back. Big adv. Evan. Oliver, go get the Saints’ D.
DL Barrett (v. CAR) over Young (@AZ)
Barrett didn’t get home last week, and Carolina should be passing a lot. Kyler didn’t get hit last week, so I’m operating under the assumption he will never get hit again. Plus, I’m still mad at Evan over Aaron Donald. Adv. Oliver.
LB David over Warner
Chalk. Adv. Evan.
DB Adams over Abram
Chalk. Adv. Oliver BUT Abram did have 13 points last week and projects as a Jamal Adams type of safety.
Like I said, it’s going to be high-scoring, and it’s going to be tight. I think the QB and DST put Evan slightly over the top.
Let me get this out of the way: I don’t want to talk about these teams. I think this is the only potential matchup in Week 2 that would have led to a victory for either of them. May God have mercy on this pitiful matchup.
QB Dak over Whatever Trash Brian Brings Out
Chalk! Adv. Cam
RB Taylor (v. MIN) over Mostert (@NYJ)
The strengths of these defenses are there front sevens, but Minnesota’s is somehow worse than New York’s. Taylor is the far superior RB, even if Mostert is faster and on a more dynamic offense. Adv. Brian.
WR Adams (v. DET) over Hopkins (v. WAS)
These were the most prolific WRs in Week 1. Adams is matching up against a hamstrung rookie DB making his NFL debut, while Hopkins is facing just a superior defense altogether. Slight adv. Brian.
WR Cooper (v. ATL) over Parker (v. BUF)
This is not close. Adv. Cam.
TE Hurst (@DAL) over Waller (v. NO)
I just have a feeling about this one. Adv. Brian.
FX Some Trash Asshole (27.1 already) over Lamb (v. ATL)
Some Trash Asshole took advantage of the fact that he was physically more powerful than another person and was caught on camera dominating that person against their will. A team with Super Bowl aspirations cut him midseason immediately after seeing the tape, and the only team that would sign him was literally the worst and potentially most cursed team in the league. Enjoy your fake points, though! They look SUPER!
For what it’s worth, I like Lamb to score his first NFL TD this week.
FX Antonio Gibson (@AZ) over Malcolm Brown (@PHI)
I’m sticking with that gut feeling here, expecting nothing specific other than Gibson has a better day, probably due to a fluke TD, whereas Brown will score no TDs. Adv. Brian
K Succop over Elliot
Just going with the better offense. Adv, Brian.
DST Cards (v. WAS) over Titans (v. JAX)
It’s the Minshew factor for me. Adv. Cam.
DL wait how the fuck is Isaiah Simmons eligible at DL? Okay fine.
DL Donald over Simmons
Yep, still bitter about it. Adv. Cam.
LB Demario over Kirksey
Chalk. Adv. Cam
DB Winfield over Phillips
I always feel like the Pats D spreads the tackles too much to guarantee stable FP, so I avoid them altogether. Adv. Brian.
Overall, Brian seems to have the mojo, but again the final scores will be pathetic, Some Trash Asshole’s explosive Thursday notwithstanding.
If there is one team I don’t want to play, it’s Slut Dragons, mostly just because I don’t want to explain the name to anyone I’m talking to this week. JCor413 just makes for less complicated conversation, and when all we can do is talk anymore to commune with one another, these are the things that matter. Adv. Corey.
QB Rodgers (v. DET) over Josh Allen (@MIA)
I think there’s some hope Josh Allen just does the thing Cam Newton did, and we all have a big laugh about it. I find it hard to believe he does that. I think he’s going to do some of the same stuff but add in some turnovers and end up being worse than Rodgers but maybe with 25 still better than Brady. Meanwhile, Rodgers crushes another weak secondary. Adv. Kennedy.
RB Kamara (@LV) over Cook (@IND)
With Michael Thomas out, I want to assume the Saints’ second best player will see more action. I also think Indy’s run defense will get better every week, and if the Vikings score it will be through the air. Adv. Corey.
WR Robinson (v. NYG) over Kupp (@PHI)
Great matchups for both players, with Robinson getting heavy targets against an awful secondary and Kupp moving around the formation enough to avoid Darius Slay for half the game. I just think Robinson is better. Adv. Kennedy
WR Juju (v. DEN) over Chark (@TEN)
I mentioned it before: Denver doesn’t have CBs right now. So that’s a smash. Meanwhile, Tennessee has Adoree Jackson, who can match Chark step for step. Chark should see more targets than last week, maybe even outshine last week’s performance altogether, but Juju has him beat. Adv. Corey.
TE Kelce over Gronk.
Please. Adv. Kennedy.
FX Drake (v. WAS) over Jacobs (v. NO)
It comes down to the matchup. Drake faces a team with bad LBs, especially when you challenge them horizontally. Jacobs faces a great defense that will key in on him and force the other guys to beat them. Adv. Corey.
FX Carson over Metcalf (v. NE)
It comes down to opportunity. Carson will see more volume against the weaker half of the Pats’ D. Adv. Kennedy
K Gould and Boswell push
Two random kickers tied to good offenses in good matchups.
DST Lions (@GB) over Chargers (v. KC)
But… neither of you are seriously starting these defenses, are you?
DL Garret and Jordan push
Hard to guess what happens at this position any week, but they both rule.
LB Hicks and Schobert push
Ah, two of last year’s tackles leaders and not much else. Cool.
DB Collins over Byard
Collins has always had more tackle, i.e., a higher floor. Adv. Kennedy.
Hmmm… this shakes out pretty evenly, but I’m leaning on my supposition that Kennedy will have the better season and picking Kennedy. I’m sorry, Kennedy.
QB Kyler (v. WAS) over Russ (v. NE)
Yeah, I think Belichick has some cold water for this #LetRussCook narrative, and we’re all going to feel much better after this weekend. Kyler won’t crush, but he’ll probably have like 25 to Russ’s 20. Adv. Shelby.
RB Henry (v. JAX) and Elliot (v. ATL) push
These are the highest ceiling RBs on the week. They had essentially the same stats last week, except Zeke had two TDs. I think the yards stays the same and the TD even out.
WR Tyreek (@LAC) over DJ Moore (@TB)
While the Chargers can’t keep up with Chiefs, it will take at least a quarter for the Chiefs to prove it. One piece of that proof will be a bomb to Tyreek. Meanwhile, SMB will have DJ Moore locked down this week. Adv. Shelby.
WR Thielen (@IND) over McLaurin (@AZ)
I think the playaction and the crossing patterns Minnesota loves will be very effective against the Colts’ zone defense. Meanwhile, McLaurin gets hounded by either Pat Pete or Byron Murphy on every play. Adv. Shelby.
TE Cook (@LV) over Ertz (v. LAR)
With Michael Thomas out, either Jared Cook or Alvin Kamara should see his season-high targets. I’m betting Cook goes for 100 yards and a score. Ertz has a soft LB corps to exploit, but so does Goedert. Adv. Coleman.
FX Ekeler (v. KC) and Singletary (@MIA) push
Two compact three-down backs with rookie bruisers stealing their short-distance work in matchups against soft run defense. Ekeler will probably see more work, so maybe Coleman gets a slight edge.
FX Hilton (v. MIN) over John Brown (@MIA)
Miami feels like a soft matchup all around, but their secondary is excellent, which is why the Patriots barely threw at all. Shelby might be better off opting for Nyheim Hines or Mike Williams in this spot. But I can see how with Brown, you only need one play for it to pay off. Adv. Coleman
K Tucker over The Leg
Chalk. Adv. Shelby
DST 49ers (@NYJ) over Ravens (@HOU)
The Ravens have the better defense, especially with Richard Sherman and Dee Ford out, but the Texans have the much better offense. Adv. Coleman.
DL Mack (v. NYG) and Watt (v. BAL) push
If Mack were healthy, I’d give him the advantage. If the Texans are smart, Watt will be used inside this week and will wreck shit. Both of these guys will be hungry after having minimal impact last week.
LB Bush over Littleton
Chalk. Adv. Shelby.
DB Budda over Harrison
Chalk again. Adv. Shelby again.
Seems like Shelby’s got it this week, but it should be high-scoring and close, rivaling the matchup between Oliver and Evan.
Tim has yet to check his lineup, but even when he subs Watkins in for Michael Thomas, he’s gonna need a lot of luck to keep up with Spencer.
QB Mahomes over Watson
Chalk. Adv. Spencer.
RB Clyde (@LAC) and Aaron Jones (v. DET) push
It’s not going to be pretty for either of these backs. Both defenses have terrific run fronts, and both offenses will gain enough of a lead to provide 25 carries for the backfield. CEH will dominate the workload while Aaron Jones shares it.
WR Diggs (@MIA) and Fuller (v. BAL) push
While these are bad matchups, I think we’ll see surprising production. Close to 100 yards for each.
WR Cal Ridley (@DAL) over Watkins (@LAC)
The Chargers’ secondary might not be able to contain Tyreek, but they can shut down Watkins in a disappointing game that’s becoming an annual tradition. Meanwhile, Ridley will dominate. Big adv. Spencer.
TE OJ (v. CAR) over Gesicki (v. BUF)
This should be tight. I believe OJ will benefit as much as anyone from Godwin being out, as he’s now the main man over the middle. Gesicki should improve on last week, as Buffalo is without it’s top two LBs in this contest. Slight adv. Spencer.
FX Ingram (@HOU) over Gurley (@DAL)
Gurley has the better matchup on paper, but I see Ingram busting up a mostly soft Texans front. Still, Gurley continues his faux renaissance another week. Adv. Spencer.
FX DeSean (v. LAR) over Miller (v. NYG)
Miller has the edge in targets, but DeSean gets the benefit of Ramsey sticking with Reagor this week. Wouldn’t be surprised if I were wrong on this one. Slight adv. Spencer.
K Koo over Myers
The Seattle kicker always sucks, maybe as bad as the Tampa kicker. Plus, Koo’s in a dome. Adv. Tim.
DST Chiefs (@LAC) over Pats (@SEA)
This is all about the teams they’re playing. Adv. Spencer.
DL Chandler (v. WAS) over Bosa (v. KC)
This is all about Chandler Jones being one of the greatest to ever do it. Adv. Spencer.
LB White over Leonard
I surprise myself with this one, but White’s athleticism gives Spencer a slight edge.
DB Mathieu over Rapp
Chalk. Adv. Spencer.
It’s all Spencer in this one.
As always, nothing I said is likely to happen, so plan accordingly. Good luck, everyone.
