The MORTYDOME Draft Recap
“Analysis” of Every Pick!
“Breakdowns” of Every Team!
Team Rankings (Fucking RANKINGS!!!)!
Week 1 Previews!
More fun than you can shake a stick at!
(Disclaimer: there is a lack of continuity, as some of this was written a couple weeks ago, and some of it was written a couple hours ago. Also, forgive the lazy formatting.)
Congratulations on the first draft where all of us were in attendance and nobody had any technical issues. Wild! We’re also getting really close to the day where no ones gets shit-faced and tanks the back half of the draft. It once seemed impossible, but we’re getting there! We made mistakes, sure. Some of them were obvious right away—here’s looking at you, Joe Schobert. We renewed some traditions like talking about Notre Dame dorms, taking the UF-FSU rivalry to either a personal or political place (or both!), drafting injured players, and engaging in pure, unmitigated shame (ZEROOO!). I loved it. Thanks for showing up.
Below, we have me spitting off the dome about every player we drafted. I don’t know why. It was one of three stabs I took at reacting to the draft. One day, I’ll enjoy a nice narrative adventure or draft diary type deal, but this year I had to write in smaller spurts instead of just going for it for a few extended sessions.
The result is a mess, but hopefully it’s entertaining on this first Sunday morning of football season. So, without further ado, I descend into madness:
1. CMC – chalk.
2. Zeke – a little intrigue. Expected Saquon.
3. Kamara – okay, really expected Saquon, but when you compare their offenses, I can see how Kamara feels more stable.
4. Saquon – Sean was very happy to see this happen. I’m sure he’d have settled for Kamara, but it seemed impossible this would happen.
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – I’m going to say one more thing about Saquon, and it’s that in his rookie year he was drafted ninth in our league, so... I don’t know. It’s a gamble on upside. If Spencer didn’t have Mahomes, this would be a bad pick, so you have to wonder.
6-7. Josh Jacobs & Dalvin Cook – Kennedy doubles up, giving him the best chance of anyone to have two top-12 RBs, which shifts the balance of power, at least on paper. I’ve said it before: if you have multiple stud RBs, you tend to win the league.
8. Michael Thomas – chalk.
9. Davante Adams – chalk.
10. Tyreek Hill – is an asshole.
11. DeAndre Hopkins – I’m tempted to say chalk, but I think Julio was the logical #3.
12. Mike Evans – same.
13. Julio – little bit of a steal with three of us taking younger guys.
14. Amari Cooper – might be a straight-up reach, meaning he had some chance of being there at Cam’s next pick. This is another stack-inspired move, combining Dak with his top receiver. I love Amari, so I’m down with the reach.
(At this point in the draft, those of us in the 9-12 range should admit we disrespected Joe Mixon. Missing practice is worrisome, but it doesn’t warranted almost the full-round slide Mixon took.)
15. Adam Thielen – Not sexy, but not quite a reach since he feels like a candidate to lead the league in targets.
16. Kenny G – All sex, but since he doesn’t project to get crazy volume, he needs TDs to make good on this gamble. I’m all in. This dude rules.
17. George Kittle – the reaction when it happened says it all. We all had Kelce #1, but we can’t sleep on Kittle. He is still ascending, whereas Kelce has plateau’d. I think this is a shrewd move, taking the minor risk that this is year Kittle takes over. Especially early in the year with other receivers hurt, how could it not be Kittle Time?
18. Miles Sanders – good value, especially since he’s a luxury RB for Evan. It’s an upside play starting with three RBs, which is the kind of risk you need to take when your first pick is this late.
19. Travis Kelce – perfection.
20. Mark Ingram – shoulda been Joe Mixon, a million times out of a million. Spencer thought one of the top two TEs was going to make it, and he tilted when Kelce went. Those top two TEs were never making it to this pick, not with the amount of capital and flexibility Oliver and Kennedy had.
21. Joe Mixon – Sean’s backfield should never have been this nice. In a chalk draft, he has Kamara and Ekeler instead of Saquon and Mixon. Saquon AND Mixon?!? Both probably about to have their best seasons? Okay.
22. Cooper Kupp – outside of the old comfort zone. Shoulda been Allen Robinson. We’ll see.
23. Austin Ekeler – this has potential to be great value. Ekeler’s issue is he lacks prototypical RB size, which creates opportunity for backup Joshua Kelley, who outweighs Ekeler by 20 lbs.
24-5. Lev Bell & James Conner – I… hate it. I think both backs come with red flags. While I don’t hate either of them alone, I can’t sign off on this combo. It’s too much risk for not enough upside. Bell could be an everydown back like he was last year, but the Jets’ backfield depth was abysmal in 2019, and they upgraded significantly, adding a bruiser (Gore) and a speedster (Perine). The Steelers like having an everydown back (like they did with Bell), and they wanted Conner to be that guy, but when given that workload last year, he broke down and lost their confidence. They’d already drafted insurance in Snell, and they added more in McFarland. So while these two have potential to finish high in the standings, there’s a reason two of last year’s first-round picks are available at the 2/3 turn. If I were Oliver, I would have read into this more and only taken one of these guys.
26. Leonard Fournette – but good thing he didn’t draft this piece of shit!
27. Juju Smith-Schuster – contract year WRs. Love ‘em, specially when they’re the all-around star talents like Juju.
28. David Johnson – similar to the Bell/Conner picks, only DJ doesn’t even have the benefit of having looked good last year. There’s speculation he was playing through some mystery injuries, and the upside is that Houston plans to use the shit out of him. Even if he sucks, the volume should make him consistently startable.
29. Calvin Ridley – great value.
30. Allen Robinson – this was about a full-round late from where I thought he should go, so it’s excellent value.
31. OBJ – also great value. OBJ has more risk baked in. Kennedy said it best when comparing the two: basically, Robinson is guaranteed more of the QB’s attention (i.e., more targets), so he picked him. OBJ is supposed to see very efficient targets that could vault him back into the elite, but the offense is supposed to spread the ball around, which means if Baker doesn’t perform, that ceiling is out of reach. But when you look at Stefanski as a playcaller, and you consider the success of Diggs and Thielen in Stefanski’s time in Minnesota, you can see how OBJ’s numbers could explode. (Buuut Kirk Cousins is a better QB than Baker. Fight me.)
32. Todd Gurley – it’s the appropriate spot to take him. But the knees, they’re so bad. Dude can no longer run the routes that made him a star. He can be a good RB but his superstar days are over.
33. Jonathan Taylor – I admit, I wanted him bad. I considered him at 12 but decided to hold off to mitigate risk. Taylor is the best RB on the team, but the team is not benching Marlon Mack. Brian repeated the phrase “someone has to start,” which seems like one of those logically safe things to say. Yes, someone has to play the first play of the game, but no, no one has to consistently lead the team in carries, not in this situation. The Colts have a gift of not having to wear their young star out early. I see Taylor’s rookie year being akin to Nick Chubb’s: he will establish himself as the clear superior, but the only way he dominates the work is if the Colts get rid of Mack, either by benching him or trading him. Whatever happens will take time.
34. Devin Singletary – hmmm. He’s perfect for this offense. He showed it last year with insane breakaway runs in limited action. People are worried Zack Moss will eat into the workload, but I don’t think it matters. Singletary is small enough that you can’t risk wearing him down since what you love about him is the breakaways. It caps his upside, but overuse would do worse than that. I can see him finishing the year very close to this pick overall.
35. Raheem Mostert – this made me happy. Mostert is “the starter,” but that doesn’t guarantee you anything in San Fran. Tevin Coleman was “the starter” for most of the games Mostert popped off.
36. Cam Akers – shouldn’t’ve been available. Now, okay, my fear is that the Rams sign Fournette for cheap and screw me, but right this moment, Akers is set to dominate the workload, and maybe right away. Malcolm Brown knows the system and will but severely lacks the dynamism to make it work in a way that unlocks the rest of the offense. Akers has the juice.
37. Russell Wilson – surprised it wasn’t Watson, who’s had the bigger booms and offered a better floor. Russ consistently finished the year around top-5, but somehow he does it while having a lower floor than the other elites.
38. Melvin Gordon – I was torn between Akers and Gordon at 36. Gordon is right at the age when RBs stop producing top-10 numbers. Granted, that shouldn’t have been my criteria since this like the 50th players off the board. But I went with the upside of the young guy, especially since I think Phillip Lindsay will get a solid amount of work, especially if Gordon’s rib injury ends up being a lingering issue as he, you know, gets punched in the ribs repeatedly by people who don’t want him to succeed.
39. Zach Ertz – I think this is a value. I’m assuming a handful of the RBs taken ahead of him don’t produce with the week-to-week consistency I expect from Ertz. After Kelce was drafted, Ertz was the only TE left who feels like a 10 ppg guy, of which there are typically only four or five.
(Last year was kind of a boon year for TEs, which I think has people excited about a TE renaissance brewing for 2020. It’s possible. Smart teams like the Ravens and 49ers have designed offenses that punish teams for being too small at linebacker and safety. They built powerful lines and had fast guys flying horizontal patterns behind the line before the snap, which compares favorably to the Cardinals, who still have guys flying side-to-side beyond the line after the snap. In a game where the average play last about seven seconds, the smartest offenses are the ones adding five or more seconds before the snap. It’s easily comparable to baseball players breaking each other’s rhythm, but it’s probably more fairly associated with the triangle offense in basketball. You move to the holes in the defense as they’re getting set so that they don’t have time to reset because oh shit the ball is already moving. It neutralizes the defense’s speed by taking away that crucial first step. This speaks to the effectiveness of a Luke Kuechly, who isn’t a fast linebacker but because he knows where the ball is going can reach top speed while faster LBs are still diagnosing the play. I’m getting off track but basically we’re seeing teams pick up on what the 49ers and Ravens are doing. There will be more TEs on the field in 2020, especially as smart teams continue to find ways to exploit small defenders, BUT I doubt it extends to those TEs getting significant fantasy points.)
40. D’Andre Swift – another sexy rookie pick. Unlike Taylor, Swift is expected to take Kerryon’s job immediately and shift Kerryon to being an everydown backup. As far as I know, the Lions offense is simpler than most. Basically, when Swift gets back to full health, we should expect him to get the bulk of carries while Kerryon is relied on for passing down work. Swift will eventually take that job, too, but Kerryon understands the protection schemes for passing downs. It’s not like Kerryon has massive upside from receiving. Coming from someone who used to love Kerryon, believe me when I say he’s nothing special. He’s like if Duke Johnson were bigger and slower.
41. Deshaun Watson – raining value. Watson is in the rare air of competing for the top QB spot. For a pocket passer, you basically have to break records to make it to number one in any year because the mobile QBs add at least five points per game from rushing stats. Watson has the ability to do both if the offense around him finally stops sucking.
42. Tyler Lockett – disturbingly good value. Lockett should’ve been in the conversation as early as late second round.
43. Keenan Allen – disrespectful. Even though we don’t do PPR, the first down numbers can’t be ignored. The volume should be significant, so what’s the problem? I guess it’s touchdowns? Maybe we expect that even if he leads the team in targets, it won’t be many more than 100. That’s a reason to fade. Looking at run-heavy teams from last year, the most targeted player was Courtland Sutton at 124, and while they’re not similar players, you can see how Keenan would dominate target numbers similarly. 124 targets was good for 18th in the league, and it would be a 25-target decrease YOY for Allen. The only other run-heavy WRs at or above 100 targets were Lockett (110) and Metcalf (100).
44. Stefon Diggs – same story as Allen and Lockett. It’s pretty sharp they were taken right in a row like that. Definitely makes the narrative piece easy. Diggs will lead the team in targets but with Josh Allen slinging it, you cannot count on efficiency.
45. Courtland Sutton – If he was getting the same usage as last season, this would be a steal. However, part of that usage was tied to the Emmanuel Sanders trade, as well as injuries to other players. Early in the year, I can see the usage being very good, but I do worry that it will wane as Jeudy and Fant get more comfortable. Denver as lacked a reliable pass-catching back, a problem they’re hoping Gordon will solve.
46. DK Metcalf – I don’t know what to do with DK. The theory I believe is that teams weren’t defending him correctly. They were trying to press him, which enabled him to use his strength to get off and get loose. College DBs in his final year were able to get the better of him by playing way off the line. DK wasn’t able to create leverage and didn’t run crisp enough routes to win consistently. It’s why he fell to Seattle in last year’s draft. I could see him being a monster with 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, but I also wonder what happens if pro DBs change their approach.
47. Jared Cook – this pick got absolutely owned during the draft, so all I can say is Coleman felt secure at his other positions and decided to take the best TE on the board. It didn’t make sense to do it ahead of Oliver, who has Kittle. BUT it does make sense that Cook could be the sixth best TE. BUT it also makes sense that TEs 6-10 could all be about the same. I support Coleman, and I support everyone dunking on him.
48-9. Michael Gallup & David Montgomery – this had to feel good. I don’t think much of Gallup. I know he’s good, and he’ll have mucho fantasy points. But in that offense, I doubt he will have a stable floor. Montgomery should have been taken before this, if only for the keeper value next season. Granted, most people were still filling their core starters to this point, so I’m guessing if Oliver didn’t take him, he wouldn’t have lasted long.
50. TY Hilton – hard to tell when the Hilton trains stops. I thought he was a speed guy, but he managed to become a pretty well-rounded receiver. With Andrew Luck, Hilton was an easy top-15 WR. Without him, he was more like 40th. My curiosity: is Philip Rivers a significant upgrade? Two years ago, I wouldn’t have asked, but I watched Rivers play a few times last year. His deep ball was effing garbage. I’m curious what TY Hilton is when you’re not consistently capitalizing on his vertical speed.
51. GRONKSMASH
52. Hollywoooood – ceiling: Tyreek; floor: well, we probably saw the floor last year, a few injuries, a few dud games, a few boom weeks. Add it all up and you get a player you have limited confidence in starting. With WR thinning out, it seems like the appropriate place to take that gamble.
53. Brandin Cooks – Whatever TY Hilton is, Cooks is a little less than that. The upside with Cooks, besides his athleticism, is that the Texans have a more balanced pass-to-run ratio. Makes you think even if he splits targets with Cobb and Fuller, he could still hit the 100-mark that these run-heavy WRs max out at. (Side note, serious question: when a player with a heavy concussion history tells the media he has “zero” concern about these brain injuries—brain injuries—how does that affect your confidence in the player? Like, I’m sorry if you’re brain is injured I don’t give you credit to know whether it’s okay. Am I crazy? You’re fucking crazy.)
54. Aaron Rodgers – sucks.
55. Deebo Samuel – good value. He’s another run-heavy WR, with more assurance of volume than some of the guys taken ahead of him.
56. Darius Leonard – KING. This is the one IDP worth taking early. He won’t win you games on his own, but if your team is good, he makes it great.
57. Marlon Mack – I got into this earlier, but Marlon Mack is going to play. If you’re hoping he gets traded, okay, it’s possible for the right offer, but they’re not giving him away like the John Dorsey gave away Carlos Hyde so that Hue Jackson would effing start Nick Chubb already.
58. Justin Tucker – WOAH moment of the draft, especially since we found out that Oliver was targeting Tucker, maybe not at his next pick but soon enough. There isn’t any “value” in this pick. It’s a straight-up overpay, but the bet is that the Ravens’ offensive efficiency cools down, leading to basically double field goals. It’s a good bet. If nothing else, Shelby secured an everyweek starter she doesn’t have to think about.
59. JK Dobbins –Dobbins will handle the ball a few times per game for probably the first half of the year, up until the Ravens’ bye week. If you can stand having a player do basically nothing for half the year, maybe it will pay off and he will start getting like ten touches per game and making some noise with them.
60. Jarvis Landry – If OBJ and Bless’m become the new Diggs/Thielen, that means Oliver just got a top-20 WR out of the 31st WR drafted. That’s value.
61. Joe Schobert – the positive is he racked up tackles for the Browns last year. Teams will be running all over his new team in Jacksonville, so he could rack up tackles again. My hesitation is that he was the Mike in Cleveland and Myles Jack is the Mike in Jacksonville. I think this pick ends up hurting.
62. Kareem Hunt – is an asshole. Are we ignoring that Ray Rice basically got kicked out of the league for doing what Kareem Hunt did? But, what, we’ve softened our stance on beating up women? What the fuck ever.
63. Jordan Howard – with the starting RBs dwindling, this could end up being a strong value. Howard should dominate carries, which won’t make him a star or anything but should secure a solid floor compared to most players drafted in this range.
64. Kerryon Johnson – is the starter right now, so this pick works. You draft for the first few weeks, hoping your high picks last all year. But as we get into the middle, it’s fair to spend a few picks on players who are getting opportunities right now, even if their long-term outlook is foggy.
65. Will Fuller – I don’t think of him and Cooks that differently.
66 & 67. Hunter Henry & Aaron Donald – chalk.
68. Tevin Coleman – potential steal if he takes the starting job back from Mostert. Even if he doesn’t “start” in that offense, you can be reasonably confident he’ll do enough to be worth flex considerations most weeks.
69. Bobby Wagner – He’s real close to Darius Leonard, and I’m surprised he lasted this long. It’s a value.
70. Evan Engram – It’s not often you see a team take a TE in the fifth and then come back and take another in the sixth. I don’t like Engram’s outlook. He’s undersized and doesn’t do much as a blocker. Technically, we don’t care about that for fantasy, but in NFL terms, these coaches didn’t draft Engram, and his rookie deal is almost up. They don’t owe him shit if he doesn’t start blocking for the franchise players.
71. Cory Littleton – real deal reach. I think the logic that drove the Jared Cook trade was at work here. Littleton has been good, good enough that Coleman feels confident he can start most weeks. But there are twenty dudes who will have similar output. Littleton will probably be a fine starter. My argument is more about the opportunity cost. Coulda had Lamb or Jeudy or an elite DL or DB instead of a good-enough LB.
72. Jerry Jeudy – Oliver had the luxury, but this is a good pick either way. We’re fading rookie WRs appropriately because they rarely produce in the first six weeks of their rookie years, but Oliver doesn’t need Jeudy to do anything for this pick to make sense.
73. Jordan Hicks – I get that Hicks led LBs in points by a decent margin last season, but then the team signed a starting LB and drafted another in the early first round. It’s unlikely Hicks has as much to clean up, meaning the tackle numbers come way, way down. The right pick here was…
74. 49ers Defense – assuming you think they’re the best, and seeing what Shelby did with Tucker, you make this pick every time. I low-key despise fantasy defenses, but I see the value in having one you believe in because streaming them is just the worst.
75. Matt Breida – won’t become the starter over Howard without an injury. We’re firmly in the land of the backups, so you have to shoot your shot on RB depth, but this is most likely a miss.
76. Stafford – love it. Probable to finish top-5 in passing yards and touchdowns. This is essentially the 100th player off the board, and that’s perfect value for a QB with Stafford’s potential.
77. Mecole Hardman – all I can say about this is that I think Spencer has given up on DeSean Jackson.
78. Sony Michel – I would like this pick more if you had any intention to start him Week 1. All signs point to Sony losing the starting gig after a few weeks. I say trade him while his future is still uncertain.
79. Lavonte – it’s the latest Lavonte has lasted by about two full rounds. Great value for an easy top-5 LB.
80. Phil Lindsay – this is a quality swing. Melvin Gordon misses an average of four games per year. Even when Gordon is “starting,” Lindsay will get plenty of work in Denver’s run-heavy offense.
81. CeeDee Lamb – sweet, sweet pick. Should’ve been taken before Jeudy, but Oliver has his allegiances. People are skeptical he can make an impact as a third-string, but Lamb is going to be the third-most targeted player on a potent offense. He might not get 1,000 yards, but he’ll have a handful of double-digit games during our bye weeks, and he’s good keeper stock.
82. Khalil Mack – like Lavonte, Mack lasted longer than ever. Another good value, albeit not great unless he gets the sacks, which feels less and less likely on a Bears’ defense that gets worse every year.
83. Julian Edelman – homer pick, but great value. Jules is far and away first on the depth chart and target totem pole. I doubt he continues to be a top-25 WR, as Cam Newton’s accuracy issues lower not only the reception count but also the TDs and first downs Brady was able to connect. But the potential is there.
84. Tyler Boyd – I think this is face-melting value. Boyd has been a full-time starter since Week 1 of his rookie season, and he’s coming off consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. Oh, and Burrow fucking loves him. I predict he’ll lead Cincy in targets.
85. Marvin Jones – All I can say is thank you. Jones is getting up there in age, but in his last full season with Stafford, he had 1,100 yards and 9 TDs. So while that’s a ceiling, I feel like it’s in reach, especially with so much attention on Golladay.
86. Darius Slayton – he’s hit our waivers twice in the first week. The Giants’ offense is going to be bad. Jason Garrett is a “players need to fit the scheme” type coach, which means he’s spent the entire offseason undoing any magic they started making last year with this rag-tag bunch. I like Slayton’s talent a lot, but I also believe he’s a boom-bust fantasy product, especially this season. He’ll be a post-hype sleeper in 2021.
87. Ravens D – yes, please. It’s a little sketchy without Earl, but the scheme is strong. There will be plenty of sacks, turnovers and touchdowns, giving them a higher ceiling than your average DST.
88. Hayden Hurst – look, it’s a reach. I love the potential, but we need to remember that Hurst hasn’t done anything yet. He could be a top TE like Hooper last year. In fact, it’s likely. Ah, fuck it. It’s fine.
89. Joey Bosa – Can’t help but think this was a reaction to the Mack pick. Shoulda been Myles Garrett.
90. Carson Wentz – nice value for a typical top-10 QB. People hate on Wentz, and rightfully so. He only throws fastballs, and his WRs are always hurt. But look, he’s the first QB in history to have 4,000 yards in a season where none of his WRs even had 500. I credit the scheme, but since he’s still in the scheme, Wentz will continue to thrive.
91. Myles Garrett – aka 2020 DPOY, sacks leader, etc. etc.
92. Henry Ruggs – Spencer is officially all-in on finding the next DeSean Jackson.
93. Higbee – gross.
94. Josh Allen (QB) – I heard a stat today: Josh Allen is 11-0 in games where he completes at least 60% of his passes. He is 4-12 when he doesn’t. That sums up Josh Allen, who we like for fantasy because he runs, but he is on record saying he hopes he doesn’t have to run as much this year, so…
95. JJ Watt – again, super low compared to other years, and maybe it’s because he’s getting older and not finishing seasons, or maybe it’s because a bunch of people are drafting crap and letting value like this land in Coleman’s lap.
96. Danielle Hunter – he feels like a sacks-only guy, but Hunter has made 70 tackles in each of the last two seasons, good for third among DL last season (Cam Heyward and Davon Godchaux ahead of him), providing a stable floor to go with all that upside.
97. Matt Ryan – I’m on board with the Falcons being a top-10 fantasy offense, and it all runs through Ryan.
98. Zack Moss – the camp stories have him basically already beating out Singletary for the job. They are hyping him like mad. I don’t buy it. Singletary is a better scheme fit with better breakaway speed. Moss will get work and with TDs could be a solid spot-starter during bye weeks. I see this as a tandem backfield with enough volume to support two starters.
99. Cam Jordan – it’s a good pick, so I won’t spoil it by saying you could’ve gotten him three rounds later. Around this time of the draft, it’s fine to reach a few rounds to get guys you believe in.
100. Pittsburgh Steelers – they are about to crush the league, and the defense will provide a solid floor in fantasy.
101. OJ Howard – I really can’t argue against Brady supporting two TEs. The defining aspect will be where the safety valve in the offense is, and it’s more likely a player than a position. In New England, it was James White, but I don’t extrapolate that to say, “Brady likes throwing to his RB.” From 2010-12, Gronk and Hernandez each saw more targets than the Pats top pass-catching RB. And it wasn’t some schmuck. It was Danny Woodhead. We’ll find out early on which of these tertiary options is Brady’s favorite. In my mind, OJ is competing with LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette. It makes things very complicated. So as far as this pick goes, I think it’s a well-timed lottery ticket.
102. Christian Kirk – chalk. But he’s better than a handful of guys picked ahead of him, so technically the value is nice.
103. Bucs D – Hmmm. On one hand, you can’t start them Week 1 at Nawlins with any confidence. On the other, the have eight cake matchups in the first ten weeks. So I’m into it.
104. Jamal Adams – the value here is insane. He should have been scooped up two rounds prior.
105. Derwin James – RIP.
106. Tremaine – there’s no value here since he’s comparable to about ten other LBs you could have gotten at any time, but I like what Shelby did with these picks. Instead of adding depth pieces with potential, she went for proven starters and assembled a team that looks satisfying on paper. If you’re opening this app every day, you want to like what you see. It’s self-care, but it’s also statistically savvy. It’s risky because it assumes health in bloodsport, but it’s optimizing Week 1 scoring, which is the most you can reasonably control at the draft.
107. Noah Fant – potentially the fastest TE in the league, the upside is there. I have doubts about volume. He’s likely the fourth target on a run-heavy team, and Cameron, if you tell me he is just speculative depth, I will question what the hell that provides when there were surefire starters at all five back-half positions.
108. Adrian Peterson – okay, cards on the table: I suck.
109. Diontae Johnson – BUT I HAVE MY MOMENTS.
110. Damien Harris – great value. We expect him to take over NE’s backfield by October, giving this pick the potential to singlehandedly save Cam’s season.
111. Budda Baker – you can’t really go wrong with the highest paid player at his position. In a game where we can’t safely predict anything, we can at least find comfort in process.
112. Antonio Gibson – yes, I realize now this should have been the pick at 108. I hang my head in shame. Gibson is somehow the surest starter on Brian’s roster.
113. Mattison – Like the Bills and Broncos, the Vikings could be one of those rare teams that supports two startable RBs in fantasy.
114. Bills D – Evan goes back to the strategy of drafting two defenses. In this case, it’s much better than the last time he did it, in 2018 when he went Rams/Chargers and neither panned out. I already mentioned the Bucs’ schedule, and while the Bills’ schedule isn’t great, it gives Evan an easy Week 1 decision. The issue I see is that both of these teams have late, late bye weeks. I don’t see how Evan can possibly hold both through the bye-pocalypse portion of the season, meaning: if you want the Bills but can be patient, you can probably get them for cheap in Week 9.
115. Landon Collins – excellent.
116. Tarik Cohen – chalk. I think I mentioned already that Matt Nagy sucks, but to put more details around it, he has signed as many Tarik-Cohen-esque players as he can trying to replicate Tyreek Hill, only he doesn’t know how to use any of them on anything but reverses and double-reverses. Cohen is in a contract year, which means he could be traded if some team offers enough midseason. I’m guessing there’s no way he wants to stay in Chicago with the way they underutilize him and basically cost him a big payday in 2021. So if the Bears are bad, smart GMs with a desire for dynamism could get Cohen for like a 5th or 6th. In our league, I think he’s worthless until he changes teams, BUT if I had him, I would hang onto him and hope. He’s just that good. And the Bears have to know they fucked his shit up. I just question whether or not these coaches are competent enough to do anything about it.
117. Nick Bosa – chalk. He was the best DL available. (Well, second best.)
118. Vander Esch – meh. He’s a tackle-monster with enough athleticism to do a little more, but he doesn’t get sacks or turnovers. He’s Blake Martinez with a star on his helmet.
119. KeShawn Vaughn – there was no way we could have known. Luckily Coleman had already drafted Fournette, so it actually liberated him to cut Vaughn now, when Vaughn was going to be dead-weight in a fantasy context anyway.
120. Justin Jefferson – I don’t like it. Jefferson is a quality slot receiver, Cooper Kupp type of thing, with potential to rise above his station, but he’s more likely Oliver’s late-keeper stash than he is a contributing member to Oliver’s championship run.
121. Wil Lutz – yeah, buddy! Third best kicker available, and Oliver gets him with his 15th pick.
122. Jalen Reagor – it sucks when dudes get hurt. Reagor was probably going to light shit up right away, and now we have to wait a month to see it. He could play sooner than that, but remember when guys play on the early side of their injury window, they’re usually hindered by the injury, and then they don’t get right until the end of the injury window anyway. Otherwise this would have been in contention for best pick of the draft.
123. Matt Gay – I was surprised he was cut, but I will also never forget losing to the Giants on that shanked 30-yarder. It’s been ten years since the Bucs had the same kicker play two full seasons (good ol’ Connor Barth). Jason Licht will stop drafting kickers now, yeah?
124. Joe Burrow – with this pick, Sean has a sneaky great QB duo. Both Stafford and Burrow should compete for the league-lead in pass attempts as they try to provide hope for their destitute franchises.
125. Devin White – nice. No telling whether he and David can both be everyweek fantasy starters, but White gets used so creatively that even if he doesn’t hit 100 tackles, he can put up big fantasy points on sacks and turnovers. I have been comparing Mike Edwards’ role on this defense to Jamal Adams, but White’s speed and size and actual usage suggest that he’s that guy. Yes, going forward, Devin White is THE guy on our defense. David deserves our respect, but Devin’s going to have more of our attention. Love this pick.
126. Bears D – I know this defense isn’t bad yet, but I truly believe they’re getting there. Part of it is how bad the offense is, and the lack of a running game early in the year will force the defense on the field more often, which will lead to yards and points and basically pain, a world of pain. They open the season AT Detroit, where Stafford dominates. This pick might be fine in a season-long context, but it’s bad to start the season on a down-note.
127. Tracy Walker – he put up big numbers last year, but safeties tend to do that when there are no linebackers in front of them. I think the additions of Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton will prevent a lot of RBs from making it to Walker’s level. Plus, adding Duron Harmon… none of this will tank Walker’s value. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he fell back into that starting-if-unspectacular DB mix. It’s a decent pick. I saw better options here.
128. Mike Gesicki – this wasn’t one of them. I think this and a few other TE picks speak to the fear around missing out on a breakout talent. I can’t hate on Gesicki himself. I juts think there were surer TEs still available.
129. Isaiah Simmons – it’s a sexy pick, for sure, but you have to wonder whether there are enough tackles to go around. I guess the hope is that Simmons is to the Cards’ defense what Devin White is to the Bucs’. In that reality, Simmons is a quality starter in our league. But assuming he doesn’t start out hot, how long are you willing to wait on the proof?
130. John Brown – it as it this point, while everyone else scrambles for back-half starters, that Shelby starts scoring insane value on offensive depth. Brown is hard to trust because the volume feels sketchy, but he’s likely to finish second on this team in targets, which should put him around 100 and offer a high ADOT guy like him a chance at 1,000 yards and multiple long scores.
131. Tony Pollard – the common refrain is that if Zeke goes down, this dude wins you your league. Too bad Cam already gave up on him.
132. Jonnu Smith – among the guys more proven than Mike Gesicki, but maybe I’m just a hater. What I like about Jonnu is that he has a serious chance at being second in targets on his team, which puts him in the same territory as those surefire top-5 guys (Kittle, Kelce, Andrews). Volume is king. Volume is king. Volume is king.
133. James White – I don’t know what to believe about this. Like I was saying after the OJ pick, it all depends who the QB (in this case, Cam) treats as his safety valve, who he trusts the most among these tertiary pieces. Obviously, Brady loved White. Will Cam?
134. Sterling Shepard – probably a serious steal. He has the talent and opportunity to do the 1,000-yard thing, but I see all these Giants receivers balancing around 800.
135. Baker Mayfield – probably another steal. He set the rookie record for passing TDs two years ago, then he had the worst coach in football last year. The offense is built to thrive. The flipside to that coin is that if the offense doesn’t thrive, it’s definitely his fault.
136. Danny Dimes – gross.
137. Haha Clinton-Dix – has since been cut by the Cowboys. His fantasy career is over.
138. Em Sanders – I love the value but not the player. I doubt he has the athleticism to consistently win outside, and I doubt he has the hands to convert to an underneath/possession-type guy. Still, if he gets 800 yards and you get some bye week wins, it’s worth the last pick.
139. Jaylon Smith – this is an appropriate spot for this caliber player. Most of our LBs should be drafted around here, in terms of what they provide.
140. Tua – This is a worthless pick. Tua is not ready to play QB in the NFL. We found this out when he wasn’t in the conversation at #1, nor was he worth it for anybody to trade up to any of the spots between #1 and #5. If you had drafted Herbert, I’d have said the same. They look good throwing the football, but… I’ll stick to Tua, and I think I’m repeating something I’ve shared before: Alabama’s offensive coordinator wanted to expand the playbook beyond mostly RPO stuff, only he couldn’t because Tua either couldn’t learn the plays or couldn’t make the plays. They were too complicated. He can grow and learn and be a good NFL QB someday, maybe, but it can’t possibly happen this year. Miami’s beat reporters said he did nothing to compete for the job. Granted, Ryan Fitzpatrick is awesome and underrated. But a great rookie QB can compete and make it a question. A bunch of rookie QBs did it last year. None of them had the reputation of not being able to learn a new offense. That’s a massive red flag.
141. DeSean Jackson – you know, I was making fun of Spencer for chasing DeSean types in the mid rounds, but I like DeSean himself as a late flyer, especially if you actually start him Week 1. He’s got the juice. The issue is, well, he’s not smart, really, but the fantasy issue is that he gets hurt like right away, so smoke him if you got him!
142. Triple-J – chalk.
143. Jordan Poyer (later swapped for Harrison Smith) – chalk.
144. Colts D – according to Football Outsiders, the Colts have the #1 easiest schedule.
145. Chase Edmonds – won’t win the job over Kenyan Drake, but will start if Drake misses time, and the offense just lathers points all over the starting RB. It’ll be hard to hold him for too long, so you gotta hope it happens soon.
146. Greg the Leg – octane offense, dome, nickname “the Leg.” Realistically, should have been drafted right after Lutz, if not before?
147. Chargers D – this looked good until it didn’t. The Derwin injury tanks their season. I’m serious. It’s not just that he’s good; it’s that he’s good all over the formation. The Ravens losing Earl Thomas means they need to coach up a backup to play centerfield. You can’t coach a player up to do what Derwin James can do. It’s like replacing Mahomes in KC. You have a bunch of good pieces, and they might win games, but they’re not the juggernaut anymore. I still like them Week 1 vs. Cincy, though, but they actually play KC in Week 2. Big nope.
148. Harrison Smith (later swapped for Jordan Poyer) – chalk.
149. Akiem Hicks – shoulda been Chandler Jones
150. N’Keal Harry – from here on out, all the picks are basically worth nothing, so you might as well shoot your shot on a starter.
151. Minkah Fitzpatrick – since released by Evan. Minkah had a really explosive run of turnovers for about six weeks last season. Defenses started avoiding him, so he’s about as fantasy relevant as Jalen Ramsey in our league. If the offense doesn’t throw your way, you can’t get fantasy points. One day, there will be a way around this, and I hope Jalen is still dominating when that day comes.
152. Sammy Watkins – why don’t people believe in Sammy Watkins in this offense? Because he doesn’t produce, sure. Fine, but suspend that for a second. Last year, first game of the season, he had nine catches for 198 yards and 3 TDs. (Granted it was against the Jags...) It’s worth taking a shot!
153. Michael Pittman Jr. – since dropped by Brian. Pittman will be on one of our rosters eventually. He’s big, and Rivers will chuck him 50-50 balls. It’s Mike Williams all over again, for better or worse.
154. Latavius Murray – I used to tout Latavius Murray in Oakland. I think he needs a Kamara injury/trade to become a fantasy player. Decent stash, easy to trash when you need something new.
155. Demario Davis – probably a steal. Davis was really good last year and the defense didn’t change in any way that should alter his course.
156. Preston Williams – shoot your shot on starters. Unlike N’Keal, Preston actually produced last season. Also, if you look at their college production, Williams smashed Harry in 2019, racking up 300 more yards and twice the TDs.
157. Chris Thompson – he went to FSU and once had six weeks of fantasy glory with the same offensive coordinator he has now. This pick is bad, but I’m desperate for RB help.
158. Darrell Henderson – like a lot of Cam’s late picks, he’s dropped.
159. Jamison Crowder – like a lot of Shelby’s late picks, she scores serious value while we’re playing guessing games. I… I don’t know how I passed on Crowder for Thompson. He’s going to catch 90 balls. I don’t like the offense or the schedule, but he’s going to be so heavily targeted that the matchups really don’t matter.
160. Gardner Minshew – this is a fun pick.
161. Anthony Miller – shoot your shot on starters. Miller will probably be second in targets. If you can guess which week he’ll score TDs, you’ll have a legitimate starter.
162. Dallas Goedert – quality. He’s considered a backup TE, but he was a top-10 TE in our league last year. What more do you want?
163. Robbie Gould – chalk.
164. Tyrann Mathieu – chalk.
165. Allen Lazard – hard to say who’s #2 between him and MVS, so I don’t like this pick. He’s since been dropped anyway.
166. Joshua Kelley – Backup RB but the starter has never handled a full workload for a full season. When Derwin was healthy and the defense was going to be amazing, I had more faith this offense could make Ekeler and Kelley startable. Now I’m not sure the volume will be there, as they’ll be less likely to lead going into the fourth quarter. Still, it’s more possible than with most teams. Head coach Anthony Lynn wants a strong two-headed running game to control the clock.
167. Golden Tate – I dropped him but only because of a hammy pull. He’s going to be good again this year.
168. Boston Scott – lots of intrigue here. With Miles Sanders’ “lower body” injury clouding Week 1, Tim may have scored a starting RB with the last pick in the 14th Round. Sanders will be back, but if Scott has a big game, suddenly Philly might not be so sure about making Sanders a bell-cow.
169. Jerick McKinnon – I feel like anything could happen with this 49ers’ backfield. Two years ago, they paid McKinnon a lot of money to come be the starter. He got hurt and Matt Breida became a breadwinner. They signed Tevin Coleman, who struggled so Raheem Mostert became a bread winner. It could easily be McKinnon’s show this year. You never know, and with picks this late, you aim for upside—which, why didn’t I do that instead of drafting Golden Tate? I don’t know. Maybe I’m full of it.
170. Austin Hooper – yeah, what? Why was a consensus top-7 TE available in the 15th? What are we doing? I know why I didn’t draft him, but I don’t understand what most of you are thinking.
171. Larry Fitz – shoot your shot on a starter, especially a legend chasing all-time records.
172. Justin Jackson – same analysis as the Kelley pick, only it wasn’t quite as clear who the #2 in LA was until a couple days after the draft. Sean cut him.
173. Chiefs D – Spencer’s Chiefs love jumped the shark here. KC plays Houston on Thursday to open the season. Last time they played, Houston scored 21 in the first quarter. The Chiefs’ defense is the same as it was last year, which I guess is fine? When the offense is building huge leads, the defense has more opportunities for sacks and turnovers, which can mask all the points and yards they allow. Hmmm.
174. Chandler Jones – PWNED YOU SUCKASS
175. Alshon Jeffery – Probably won’t play in September, it’s worth it as long as you don’t need the IR slot. I feel like Alshon is toast. Doesn’t even qualify for “shoot your shot on a starter” status as he won’t necessarily start when he returns. It could easily be Reagor, DJax, and the TEs.
176. Cam Newton – awesome value, especially if Cam still has the wheels. Even if he doesn’t, I can see a lot of QB sneaks for first downs and TDs, vaulting into starting territory in our league.
177. Blake Jarwin – people are going crazy over this dude. He’s the fifth target. Even on a good offense, it’s a recipe for touchdown-dependency. I will say it’s a good pairing with Hurst, who’s less than a sure thing.
178. Mike Williams – ehhh, I felt better about it before it was reported he would miss the first month of the season, but then, like, Anthony Lynn called him a game-time decision for Week 1? Like with Alshon, if you have the free IR spot, go for it.
179. Deion Jones – love the player, don’t care at all about these picks anymore. It’s been flyer country since seven picks ago.
180. Keanuuuu – except this guy! Comeback Player of the Year! Book it!
181. Jameis Winston – this was just for gigs.
182. Big Ben – this pick was funny. Cameron originally picked Devin Bush, his third LB, when he had yet to take any other IDPs, a K, or a DST, so I let him re-do and he did thisonly to drop him the next morning. It was a good value pick. It’s easy to make a case for Ben as a top-10 QB—yes, I feel fine saying this about 15 QBs.
183. Devin Bush – who doesn’t love found money?
184. Calais Campbell – since dropped, but another good value pick if it had stuck. Campbell joins the Ravens this year, and last time he was on a good defense, he was a top-5 DL.
185. Younghoe Koo – love it.
186. Zane Gonzalez – love it.
187. Breshad Perriman – shoot your shot on starters. Ideally, don’t make them Jets. There are about fifteen WRs that would have been better than this.
188. Ka’imi – love it.
189. Robby Anderson – we should not be fading the Carolina offense this hard.
190. Teddy – but let’s not get crazy.
191. Brandon Aiyuk – one of the fifteen WRs ahead of Perriman
192. Dan Bailey – love it.
EK: Woods
LK: Brees
1. CMC
13. Julio
17. Kittle
24. Conner
25. Bell
48. Gallup
49. Montgomery
60. Bless’m
72. Jeudy
73. Hicks
96. Danielle Hunter
97. Matty Ice
104. Jamal Adams
120. Justin Jefferson
121. Lutz
132. Jonnu
Best Value Pick: David Montgomery
Worst Value Pick: Jordan Hicks
Toughest Lineup Decision: Gallup or Landry
Best-Case Scenario: Oliver has three bell-cow RBs, two 100-catch WRs, the league’s best TE, and stable floors at QB and every back-half position. Championship, duh.
Worst-Case Scenario: Brees pulls a 2015 Peyton, Joe Brady ruins CMC, Julio gets outplayed by Ridley, Kittle gets double-covered every snap, Conner and Bell get benched, Pete Carroll wastes Jamal Adams, Gallup finishes fourth in targets on the Cowboys, Ngakoue steals all of Hunter’s sacks, Isaiah Simmons takes Jordan Hicks’ job, Wil Lutz gets the yips.
Surprise of the Season: Matt Ryan outscores Drew Brees.
EK: DJ Moore
LK: Terry McLaurin
2. Zeke
23. Ekeler
26. Fournette
37. Russ
47. Jared Cook
50. TY
71. Littleton
74. 49ers DST
95. JJ Watt
98. Zack Moss
119. KeShawn Vaughn
122. Jalen Reagor
143. Harrison Smith
146. Greg the Leg
170. Austin Hooper
181. Brandon Aiyuk
Best Value Pick: Either Reagor or Aiyuk, which is crazy since Coleman used basically those same picks on Hollywood and McLaurin last year.
Worst Value Pick: Littleton (seeing a theme here)
Best-case Scenario: Championship City. This team is strong and deep.
Worst-case Scenario: All of his RBs split time with the other RBs on their respective teams. Teddy, Haskins, and Rivers play like poo, tanking the value of Coleman’s top three WRs. Coleman starts the wrong TE every week.
Surprise of the Season: Aiyuk starts for Coleman in the playoffs.
EK: Kenyan Drake
LK: Brady
3. Kamara
22. Kupp
27. Juju
46. DK Creatine
51. Gronk
70. Engram
75. Breida
94. Josh Allen
99. Cam Jordan
118. Vander Esch
123. Matt Gay
142. John Johnson III
147. Chargers D
166. Joshua Kelley
171. Larry Fitz
190. Teddy
Best Value Pick: Juju will end up being worth like the 15th pick.
Worst Value Pick: Breida will not be in anyone’s starting lineup this year.
Best-case Scenario: Brady is the prince that was promised, Gronk plays like he’s 25 again... even if Kamara, DK, and Drake hit their ceilings. The defensive floor is high. Playoffs are always possible, but right now it feels like the ceiling for this team would be like the 4-seed.
Worst-case Scenario: Brady is 43, Drake has played about ten good games in four years, all of these WRs could end up being out-targeted by a teammate (even Juju). Neither Gronk nor Engram has to get targeted heavily. If Gronk doesn’t convert TDs, he might only produce like the second-string TE he is. The third RB on this team right now is either Breida or Kelley, in a league where at least two teams have four legit starters. The Chargers D is toast, Corey’s streaming kickers from the jump… this team could realistically bottom out, but I think there’s one worse team.
Surprise of the Season: Fitz outscores DK.
EK: AJ Green
LK: Harrison Butker
4. Saquon
21. Mixon
28. David Johnson
45. Sutton
52. Hollywooood
69. Bobby Wagner
76. Stafford
93. Higbee
100. Steelers D
117. Nick Bosa
124. Joe Burrow
141. DeSean
148. Poyer
165. Allen Lazard Darius Slayton
172. Justin Jackson Bryan Edwards
189. Robby Anderson Chris Herndon
Best Value: Steelers D will be the #1 defense. Maybe not worth much more than Pick 100 in terms of total points, but the stability of the set-and-forget has weight.
Worst Value: David Johnson was the pick before Thursday. Even still, I don’t see him holding up for a whole season. It’ll feel like a real betrayal when he gets you to the playoffs but can’t pull you through.
Best-case Scenario: Three bell-cow backs, a stud WR in AJ Green, and perfect symmetry in the boom-bust games of DJax and Hollywood, with Sean lining them up just right. Throw in Matt Stafford’s return to the 5K club, assume Tyler Higbee doesn’t shit the bed, and Sean’s got as much of a championship contender as anyone.
Worst-case Scenario: none of that happens. This is the likelier scenario, with only Saquon, Mixon, and Matt Stafford feeling to me like solid offensive starters. I like the floor provided by these three and Sean’s back half of his lineup. Harrison Smith was a better pick than Poyer, so that trade doesn’t make sense, but whatever. Let’s have fun. I mean, at Sean’s expense, as his team spirals hopelessly to another dismal finish. I think honestly none of these WRs end up being consistent or significant fantasy producers, especially since it’s going to be a nightmare just deciding which two to start.
Surprise of the Season: AJ Green and David Johnson are still good.
EK: Mahomes
LK: AJ Brown
5. CEH
20. Mark Ingram
29. Calvin Ridley
44. Diggs
53. Cooks
68. Coleman
77. Hardman
92. Ruggs
101. OJ
116. Cohen
125. Devin White
140. Tua Hockenson
149. Akiem Hicks Clowney
164. Mathieu
173. Chiefs D
188. Ka’imi Fairbairn
Best Value: Devin White will have at least one 20-point game this year and provide a solid floor around it. I could also see Henry Ruggs leading rookies in receptions and yards.
Worst Value: Brandin Cooks won’t even lead anyone in anything.
Best-case Scenario: Mahomes finishes #1 in overall points, and CEH finishes top-5. Going off what happened against Houston, Clyde could easily finish #1 once he gets all those passing down snaps. Mark Ingram hold off Dobbins for a year, returning to top-10 status. Calvin Ridley leads the Falcons in TDs and comes close to Julio in all other categories. He is the “this year’s Godwin” that analysts think he is. Stefon Diggs makes Josh Allen accurate. Ruggs is to Las Vegas what Joey Galloway was to Tampa. OJ gets 800 yards and a handful of TDs. Spencer benches Cooks, Coleman, and Hardman every week except when he needs them on bye weeks. The Chiefs lead by 20 at the end of every first half, enabling their defense to play the pass and rack up sacks and picks.
Worst-case Scenario: Spencer tries to “ride the hot hand” among his WRs instead of picking consistent starters. Lavonte David steals all of Devin White’s tackles. Darrel Williams rushes for 2,000 yards and 40 TDs, leaving just scraps for Mahomes and Clyde. Josh Allen can’t hit a watermelon with a tennis racket, causing Diggs to quit midseason. Dobbins steals Ingram’s job Week 1. AJ Brown is human. The Chiefs D leads by 20 at the end of every first half, but they allow 30 every second half.
Surprise of the Season: Spencer makes the playoffs.
EK: Chris Carson
LK: DJ Chark
6. Josh Jacobs
7. Dalvin Cook
19. Kelce
30. Allen Robinson
54. Rodgers
55. Deebo
61. Joe Schobert
78. Sony
91. Myles
102. Christian Kirk
115. Landon Collins
126. Bears D
139. Jaylon Smith
150. N’Keal Harry
163. Gould
187. Perriman
Best Value: Allen Robinson, Landon Collins
Worst Value: Joe Schobert
Best-case Scenario: three bell-cow backs, maybe the two most targeted WRs in 2020 (Chark and Robinson), the last great year of Rodgers… Kelce stays #1. Deebo has a stable ten-point floor when you need him. Joe Schobert leads all LBs in tackles and INTs. Sony Michel starts 16 games and is just gravy on the bench (in a good way). Myles Garrett: DPOY. Landon Collins leads DBs in tackles. The Bears D’s whole is better than the sum of its parts. Robbie Gould leads the league in 40-yard attempts and nails about 90% of his kicks, including 100% of XPs. Kennedy doesn’t storm the playoffs, but he does win the championship.
Worst-case: Aaron Rodgers sucks. Dalvin Cook is fucking rock-solid, but Chris Carson splits carries with Carlos Hyde while Josh Jacobs doesn’t get the passing work to justify his draft slot. Allen Robinson leads the league in targets, but only half of them are even catchable, none of them TDs. DJ Chark proves to be just some guy. Joe Schobert lives up to his name. Deebo Samuel doesn’t play until Week 7, at which point he never emerges from the crowd of capable WRs in San Fran. Sony Michel loses the starting job in Week 4. Travis Kelce shows his age and only finishes fourth among TEs. Myles Garrett chokes Joe Burrow with his own shoelaces. The Bears D continues to decline under the inferior tutelage of Chuck Pagano. Did I mention Aaron Rodgers sucks?
Surprise of the Season: Rodgers actually sucks.
EK: Nick Chubb
LK: Ronald Jones
18. Miles Sanders
31. OBJ
42. Lockett
43. Keenan Allen
66. Hunter Henry
67. Aaron Donald
79. Lavonte
90. Wentz
103. Bucs D
114. Bills D
127. Tracy Walker Big Ben
138. Em Sanders
151. Minkah Fitzpatrick
162. Goedert
175. Jeffery
186. Zane Zalez
Best Value: Keenan Allen was a steal, and Wentz could have easily gone three rounds earlier.
Worst Value: Aaron Donald, just because the Rams didn’t figure out how to take attention off him. He wasn’t worth this pick last year and won’t be worth it this year. He’ll have some big games, but the floor is low enough to actually hurt you.
Best-case Scenario: not gonna lie, it’s not as good as others’, but let’s do it. Sanders, Chubb, and RoJo all hold off their backfield competition and lead their teams in touches and TDs. The combination of Chubb and OBJ gives Evan 80% of all Browns TDs, at least 20 TDs between the two of them. Tyler Lockett is stuffed full of whatever Russ cooks. Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are the only Chargers besides Ekeler to receive targets, so they each lead the league at their positions. Carson Wentz rushes for 500 yards and 10 TDs. Aaron Donald leads the league in sacks and TFLs, Lavonte leads the league in forced fumbles, and Minkah leads in INTs. The Bucs and Bills’ defenses somehow justify being drafted in consecutive, relatively high rounds; it’s unclear how exactly this might happen, but it happens, baby. Zane Zalez hits 40 FGs and 40 XPs, becoming the first kicker in league history to do so.
Worst-case scenario: among Evan’s RBs only Nick Chubb has anything better than a timeshare, and even then Hunt takes all the passing-down work, relegating Chubb to a ceiling of like 15th in RB scoring. RoJo becomes a straight-up backup, getting maybe 125 touches on the year and having decent games but never when he’s in Evan’s starting lineup. Um, Miles Sanders leads Eagles’ RBs in touches, but it’s by, like, four touches, and he doesn’t score more than four TDs. OBJ gets put in a legit straightjacket by, like, professionals. Hunter Henry gets suspended after tattooing his initials on his forearm. Keenan Allen leads the Chargers in targets but only averages eight yards per reception. Aaron Donald gets double-teamed every snap and is great anway, just not in a fantasy context. Having two people in one fantasy league simultaneously believing in the Bucs and Bills every weekend eventually rips a whole in the space-time continuum, bringing Hitler back from the dead and making him commissioner of the NFL. Hunter Henry gets reinstated, but it’s too late since Evan is already 3-10. Still, everyone has a shot at the #1 pick.
Surprise of the Season: Keenan Allen outscores Miles Sanders.
EK: Aaron Jones
LK: Pats D
8. Michael Thomas
32. Gurley
41. Watson
56. Darius Leonard
65. Will Fuller
80. Phil Lindsay
89. Joey Bosa
113. Mattison
128. Gesicki
137. Haha
145. Chase Edmonds
152. Sammy Watkins
161. Anthony Miller
168. Boston Scott
176. Cam Newton
185. Younghoe Koo
Best Value: Like all of these late picks; Edmonds, Watkins, Miller, Scott, and Newton each have potential to become weekly starters. Watkins already crushed, Scott will start for Sanders Week 1, Miller will be second on his team in targets, and Newton is starting Week 1 on what should be a very creative offense. Edmonds is a stash for now.
Worst Value: Gurley, for sure, but blowing a keeper on a defense is dicey, too.
Best-case scenario: I know nothing about football. Michael Thomas and Aaron Jones and the Pats D repeat the insane years they had in 2019. Todd Gurley gets new knees. Watson and Fuller combine for 15 60-yard TDs, and Fuller leads the team in targets. Watson runs effectively instead of skipping around throwing jump-passes every other play. Lindsay and Edmonds steal their teams’ starting jobs. Darius Leonard is legitimately the new Luke Kuechly. Belichick and McDaniels use Cam Newton so creatively that he gets TE eligibility in a week or two. Tim sneaks into the playoffs and maybe wins a game before getting eliminated. We get points for onside kicks recovered, allowing Koo to lead kickers in scoring.
Worst-case: Drew Brees’ arm gives out, and Jameis only connects on a human 65% of his passes to Thomas. Aaron Jones doesn’t get goal-line carries. Todd Gurley is forced to play using his own legs. Will Fuller and Sammy Watkins do the usual bullshit. Lindsay and Edmonds and Mattison and Scott are all backups all year long. Tim legit finishes last, like least wins in the regular season and no wins in the postseason. Better luck next year indeed.
Surprise of the Season: Cam Newton leads this team in points.
EK: Godwin
LK: DeVante Parker
9. Davante Adams
16. Kenny G
33. JT
40. Get Swifty
57. Marlon Mack
64. Kerryon
81. Lamb
88. Hurst
105. Derwin
112. Gibson
129. Simmons
136. Dimes
153. Pittman Eagles D
160. Minshew
177. Jarwin
184. Calais Brad Chubb
Best Value: it was Derwin, so now I guess it’s Minshew. Who gives a shit.
Worst Value: the RB entanglement
Best-case scenario: The Lions and Colts don’t do the hot-hand bullshit, or one of them does it so well that Brian can just lean on that team—it’s the Colts, by the way. Meanwhile, Danny Dimes drops another 4K and 30 TDs. Godwin, Adams, and Kenny G do what we expect them to do. Hayden Hurst is Cameron Brate and OJ Howard combined. Brian finds some legitimate IDPs soon. And a kicker. And a defense. Or I guess best-case is that those positions don’t matter, since Dimes and the Colts RBs and those stud WRs carry the load.
Worst-case scenario: Brian has zero starting QBs, in a fantasy context. He has zero starting RBs since he’s basically just guessing between three or four every week, probably at a 30% hit-rate. Blake Jarwin outplays Hayden Hurst, but neither is in the top 10. The stud WRs carry Brian to a legitimate shot at the #1 pick.
Surprise of the Season: Jameis throws a TD.
EK: Derrick Henry
LK: Kyler Murray
10. Tyreek
15. Thielen
34. Singletary
39. Ertz
58. Tucker
63. JoHo
82. Khalil Mack
87. Ravens D
106. Tremaine
111. Budda
130. John Brown Hindparts
135. Mayfield
154. Latavius
159. Crowder
178. Mike Williams
183. Bush
Best Value: Jordan Howard at basically 80th when he’s going to get 15 carries per game is pretty sick value. Crowder is a value if you’re brave enough to play him. Both will feature heavily on the first-down leaderboard (among shitty players, I mean).
Worst Value: I won’t say anything bad about Justin Tucker. If Singletary loses the starting job, he’ll end up as the worst value, but right now, it’s the Ravens D, if only because we don’t know whether their patchwork safety plan will work out, especially not against the Chiefs in Week 3. But most of their schedule rules. In our playoffs, they play the Browns, Jags, and Giants.
Best-case Scenario: Derrick Henry gets 300 carries, Kyler Murray takes what analysts are calling the “Lamar leap” (which is just plain racist—Kyler is the second best runner among QBs, but the gap is wide, about five points in speed, agility, and acceleration according to Madden and believe me the contrast in playability is stark). He rushes for 700 yards and tosses 4K and 30 TDs. If not, then Baker Mayfield rushes for 400 and tosses 40 TDs. Tyreek goes for 1,500 and 15 TDs, all on about 40 catches. Thielen sees about 160 targets and a 75% catch rate, putting him among the league leaders in all stat categories. Singletary keeps banging out 30-yard runs every week, getting plenty of receptions to boot. Tucker and the Ravens D combine for 20 per game. Khalil Mack has probably his last elite season, and he knows it, driving for the single-season sack record. Zach Ertz sticks his middle finger straight up the Eagles stingy butthole, putting in the final 1,000-yard season of his career. Shelby has a legitimate shot at the championship but needs her starters to play like starters every week. Technically this is what we all need. Ignore my bullshit.
Worst-case: What’s worse than the wheels falling off? Kyler leads the league in fumbles. The Titans don’t make it to the red zone enough to get Henry the TDs he needs to stay elite. The Chiefs run the ball for all their yards, and even though Tyreek gets a TD every week, he only gets 20 yards to go with it. Adam Thielen gets fucking owned by opposing teams’ #1 corners. The Dolphins O-line loses every snap. Zack Moss gets 300 carries. Khalil Mack gets doubled every snap and isn’t big enough to break through. Jamison Crowder ends the season as Shelby’s highest scoring WR. The Ravens safety experiment fails terribly; it’s like two Sabby Piscatelli’s back there. Shelby starts a different LB every week, averaging about six points per week while doing it.
Surprise of the Season: Jordan Howard has 1,000 rushing yards.
EK: Dak
LK: Waller
11. Hopkins
14. Amari Cooper
35. Mostert
38. Gordon
59. Dobbins
62. Hunt
83. Edelman
86. Slayton Jake Elliot
107. Noah Fant
110. Damien Harris
131. Pollard Kwon
134. Shepard
155. Demario
157. Henderson Vikings D
179. Deion Jones Dunlap
182. Big Ben Jabrill Peppers
Best Value: Melvin Gordon could be worth a top-25 pick, and Julian Edelman could be worth a top-50.
Worst Value: Well, I suppose it would be the top-100 pick you cut 12 hours later. Easily the highest cut, especially when you consider his situation is the same now as it was then. But okay, among your current players, I’ll say Dobbins, sticking to the idea that he’ll spend the first eight weeks on your bench.
Best-case scenario: Literally all of these players exceed their expectations. That might sound obvious, but I actually believed some of the stuff I said in best-cases for other teams. Can Dak repeat last year despite new head coach and a worse O-line? Can Cooper lead this team in targets by a wide enough margin to make it make sense that Cameron didn’t take Gallup way later? Can Hopkins change teams and remain elite? With everything bad happening in Denver, I actually believe Melvin Gordon could be the beneficiary of all of it. I believe Mostert can turn ten weekly touches into ten or more weekly fantasy points. But for this team to even make the playoffs, you need a lot of luck every week. There’s no depth. I’m saying the ceiling is the floor, but not the way Michael Jordan meant it. Best-case, final answer: number one pick in 2021.
Worst-case scenario: This team doesn’t have a starting RB, and Cameron knows it. He’s even starting Kareem Hunt over Melvin Gordon. Because Gordon is losing his job to Lindsay. Dak’s suddenly sketchy line let him down. Cooper has basically the same number of targets as the rest of the trio, maybe even the same as Zeke. Mostert is the second head of a four-headed timeshare. There’s no entertainment here, unless your favorite genre is tragedy. I really think it’s going to be bad, and Cameron’s going to change his team so much that any prediction I make would be about players that won’t even be on his team in three weeks.
Surprise of the Season: Gordon leads this team in points (non-QBs).
EK: Lamar
LK: Andrews
12. Mike Evans
36. Cam Akers
84. Tyler Boyd
85. Marvin Jones
108. Adrian Peterson Tony Pollard
109. Diontae Johnson
133. James White
144. Colts D
156. Preston Williams
157. Chris Thompson James Robinson
167. Golden Tate Randall Cobb
168. Jet McKinnon TJ Watt
174. Chandler Jones
180. Keanuuu
181. Jameis Winston Patrick Queen
192. Dan Bailey
Best Value: Tyler Boyd, Diontae Johnson, KEANU?! Take your pick.
Worst Value: AP is an easy call, but let’s shine a light on Evans, who’s starting the season with hamstring issues FUCK.
Best-case: Lamar somehow improves. He’s like 22? 23? Any other player would be an automatically ascending talent, so let’s go. Uh, Evans needs to be the Randy Moss everyone wants him to be. Cam Akers needs to start and also be peak Todd Gurley. Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones, Diontae Johnson, and Preston Williams lead their teams in targets. Deshaun Watson remembers Randall Cobb exists before the fourth quarter. Tony Pollard and James White have firm roles in their offenses, to the tune of seven catches, all for first downs or TDs. Keanu wins comeback player of the year. TJ Watt wins DPOY. Chandler Jones is business as usual. Dan Bailey rains 50-yarders. Colts D takes that awesome schedule of garbage teams and just smashes it. Oh, and Mark Andrews ascends into the Kelce/Kittle tier.
Worst-case: I don’t want this to get dark. Aside from Evans, Lamar, and Andrews, and low-key Boyd, I don’t have enough starting talent to compete with any of you except Cameron, since our teams are basically the same. He would argue he has better WRs. I would disagree until we saw the numbers shake out. Worst-case is realistic: I’m thinking 5th or 6th pick in 2021.
Surprise of the Season: Keanu plays all 16 games.
QB Classes
Before I give you my take, I’ll let you take a look at the unordered list.
Oliver: Brees, Ryan
Coleman: Russ
Corey: Brady, Allen, Teddy
Sean: Stafford, Burrow
Spe: Mahomes, Tua
Kennedy: Rodgers
Evan: Wentz
Tim: Watson, Newton
Brian: Dimes, Minshew
Shelby: Kyler, Baker
Cam: Dak, Big Ben
Doak: Lamar
And here’s how my brain chunked it out:
The Intrigue
Tim: Watson, Newton (Unicornucopia)
Shelby: Kyler, Baker (Floor-to-Ceiling Soonervision)
The Basic Package
Oliver: Brees, Ryan (Southern Whites)
Sean: Stafford, Burrow (White Saviors)
Brian: Dimes, Minshew (White Trash)
The Chefs
Coleman: Russ (Prix Fixe)
Kennedy: Rodgers (Whatever Looks Good)
Evan: Wentz (Whatever’s Gone Bad)
Doak: Lamar (Whatever You Like)
Spe: Mahomes, Tua (There’s SPAM in My GOAT)
The Busybody
Corey: Brady, Allen, Teddy (The Odd Triple)
The Other Guys
Cam: Dak, Big Ben (Hip Swivel and Gut Jiggle)
As far as outlook, Spencer and I have the advantage on the surface, but everyone looks good except Brian. I have to mention that Tim has a small chance to have the top two QBs this season. Shelby does too, but she also has a better chance of having each of her QBs throw 20 picks, though not as good a chance as Brian, who took one look at the QB landscape without Jameis and decided nothing matters.
QB Ranks
1. Spencer
2. Doak
3. Tim
4. Cam
5. Coleman
6. Shelby
7. Sean
8. Corey
9. Oliver
10. Evan
11. Kennedy
12. Brian (if I could put him lower, I would)
RB Classes
Again, let’s get weird.
Oliver: CMC, Conner, Bell, D-Mont-G
Coleman: Zeke, Ekeler, Lenny, Moss
Corey: Drake, Kamara, Breida, Kelley
Sean: Saquon, Mixon, DJ
Spe: CEH, Ingram, Coleman, Cohen
Kennedy: Carson, Jacobs, Cook, Michel
Evan: Chubb, RoJo, Sanders
Tim: Jones, Gurley, Lindsay, Mattison, Edmonds, Scott
Brian: Taylor, Mack, Swift, Kerryon, Gibson
Shelby: Henry, Singletary, Howard, Latavius
Cam: Mostert, Gordon, Dobbins, Hunt, Harris
Doak: Akers, White, Thompson, Pollard, McKinnon
Okay, that’s significantly more to keep track of than the QBs.
Quadra Magic
Oliver: CMC, Conner, Bell, Montgomery
Kennedy: Carson, Jacobs, Cook, Michel
Stud Trifecta
Sean: Saquon, Mixon, DJ
Coleman: Zeke, Ekeler, Lenny/Moss (one will start)
Standard Trifecta
Shelby:Henry, Singeltary, Howard
Double Fisting
Corey: Drake, Kamara
Spe: CEH, Ingram
“somebody’s gotta start”
Brian: Lions, Colts, and The Football Team
Sketchy Salad
Evan: Chubb, RoJo, Sanders
Tim: Jones, Gurley, Lindsay, et al
Cam: Mostert, Gordon, and so on
Left For Dead
Doak: Akers and the Satellites
Wow. That went downhill fast.
RB Ranks
1. Kennedy
2. Oliver
3. Sean
4. Coleman
5. Shelby
6. Evan
7. Corey
8. Brian
9. Spencer
10. Tim
11. Cam
12. Doak
WR Classes
Oliver: Julio, Woods, Gallup, Landry, Jeudy, Jefferson
Coleman: Moore, McLaurin, Hilton, Reagor, Aiyuk, Gordon
Corey: Kupp, Juju, DK, Larry
Sean: Sutton, Green, Hollywood, DeSean, Lazard, Robby
Spe: AJ Brown, Ridley, Diggs, Cooks, Hardman, Ruggs
Kennedy: Robinson, Chark, Deebo, Kirk, Harry, Perriman
Evan: OBJ, Keenan, Lockett, Sanders, Jeffery
Tim: Thomas, Fuller, Watkins, Ant Miller
Brian: Godwin, Adams, Golladay, Parker, Lamb
Shelby: Tyreek, Thielen, John Brown, Crowder, Mike Williams
Cam: Nuk, Cooper, Edelman, Shepard
Doak: Evans, Boyd, Marvin, Diontae, Preston, Cobb
I don’t have anything cute for this. This was the hardest position to rank. You will notice I copped out.
WR Ranks
1. Brian
2. Evan
3. Oliver
4. Coleman
T-5. Spe
T-5. Kennedy
T-5. Corey
T-5. Shelby
T-5. Cam
10. Doak
11. Sean
12. Tim
TE Classes
Oliver: Kittle, Jonnu
Coleman: Cook, Hooper
Corey: Gronk, Engram
Sean: Higbee
Spencer: OJ
Kennedy: Kelce
Evan: Henry, Goedert
Tim: Gesicki
Brian: Hurst, Jarwin
Shelby: Ertz
Cam: Waller, Fant
Doak: Andrews
I’m basically just ranking your best TE here.
TE Ranks
1. Oliver
2. Kennedy
3. Doak
4. Shelby
5. Cam
6. Coleman
7. Evan
8. Brian
T-9. Corey
T-9. Spe
11. Sean
12. Tim
Corey and Spencer tie because I can’t sort out which Tampa TE will score more TDs. I’m also feeling like a real low-baller putting them at nine. There’s a timeline out there where each of these dudes has 700 yards and 7 TDs, not to mention all the first downs, and it’s actually Godwin and Evans who feel overpriced at their draft picks. I honestly don’t know what to make of this Bucs’ offense. The paper being passed through every media-member’s hands reads, “Make sure you mention how bad QBs are the first year in Arians’ system,” but nobody is mentioning how much Brady likes to throw to the open guy closest to him over and over again, how Gronk and Amendola and Edelman were combining for half the team’s targets for a few years. If we predict Brady will throw 35 times per game, let’s chop up these targets right now. We HOPE that ten go to Evans and ten go to Godwin. That would leave 15 targets to divvy up among two or three RBs and two or three TEs, not to mention our third and maybe fourth WRs. It doesn’t add up. It means every week we should expect one of our starters to underperform unless he has a TD, in which case I hope we score five per game because there’s no other way we’re all getting players worth the price we paid for them (except Brian, who had Godwin for free-ish, and Corey who has the QB that hits 280 yards and two TDs per game, no sweat. Can football please just happen already?
For the rest of these positions, I’m going straight to the ranks. But first, let’s recap where we are on offense.
Offense Ranks (extra spaces signify a tier-break)
1. Oliver
2. Coleman
3. Kennedy
4. Shelby
5. Evan
6. Spe
T-7. Cam
T-7. Doak
9. Brian
10. Corey
11. Sean
12. Tim
It’s all made up, but I’ll justify a few things anyway. Kennedy would be ranked equal-to or above Coleman if not for me tanking Rodgers’ ranking. Shelby would be about tied with them if I gave Tyreek and Thielen nearly as much credit as she does. Oliver is really that far ahead, and Tim is really that far behind. Tim’s ranking doesn’t matter because: (1) it’s entirely arbitrary, and (2) it ignores the value of having your top three players combine for 70 points, which Tim’s top three project to do as often as anybody. But it is worrisome that he has so many what-if guys behind those studs. My ranking is skewed higher because the four positions are weighted equally, so my QB and TE pull me wayyy up!
Let’s move on to defense and special teams, aka “the back half.”
K Ranks
1. Shelby (Tucker)
2. Sean (Butker)
3. Oliver (Lutz)
4. Evan (Gonzalez)
5. Coleman (Greg the Leg)
6. Spe (Ka’imi)
7. Doak (Bailey)
8. Kennedy (Gould)
9. Cam (Elliot)
10. Tim (Koo)
11. Brian (Succop)
12. Corey (Badgley)
If Matt Gay had kept his job, I would probably have ranked him seventh. Succop should get a lot of XPs and FGs under 40, but he can’t boot it like Gay.
DST
1. Sean (Steelers)
2. Coleman (49ers)
3. Doak (Colts)
4. Evan (Bills/Bucs)
5. Shelby (Ravens)
6. Corey (Chargers)
7. …
8. Hmmm…
9. Tim (Pats)? Cam (Vikes)?
12. Spe, Kennedy, Oliver, Brian
The Eagles and Lions are strong plays, and I feel like the Titans-Broncos game will be all defense.
DL
1. Kennedy (Myles)
2. Shelby (Mack)
3. Evan (Donald)
4. Doak (Chandler)
5. Coleman (Watt)
6. Oliver (Hunter)
7. Corey (Jordan)
8. Sean (N. Bosa)
9. Tim (J. Bosa)
10. Brian (Chubb)
11. Cam (Dunlap)
12. Spe (Hicks)
LB
1. Tim (Leonard)
2. Evan (Lavonte)
3. Sean (Wagner)
4. Corey (Vander Esch)
5. Cam (Demario)
6. Doak (Watt)
7. Shelby (Bush)
8. Oliver (Hicks)
9. Spe (White)
10. Kennedy (Jaylon)
11. Coleman (Littleton)
12. Brian (Simmons)
DB
1. Oliver (Adams)
2. Brian (Derwin, RIP)
3. Shelby (Budda)
4. Kennedy (Collins)
5. Corey (Triple-J)
6. Spe (Mathieu)
7. Coleman (Smith)
8. Cam (Peppers)
9. Doak (Keanuuu)
10. Evan (Walker)
11. Sean (Poyer)
12. Tim (none)
Tim drafted Haha Clinton-Dix, who has since been released by the Cowboys.
Back-Half Ranks (again, space = tier-break)
1. Shelby
2. Evan
3. Sean
4. Doak
T-5. Oliver
T-5. Coleman
T-7. Corey
T-7. Kennedy
9. Tim
10. Cam
11. Spe
12. Brian
And that’s including me throwing Brian a bone for Derwin. Shelby spent high on defense, so I hope the high ranking here is just the beginning of it being worth it.
Overall Ranks
1. Shelby
2. Oliver
3. Evan
4. Coleman
5. Kennedy
6. Doak
7. Sean
8. Corey
T-9. Spe
T-9. Cam
11. Brian
12. Tim
Of course, if I were to weight it appropriately for positions with more value, it would be more like this:
1. Oliver
2. Kennedy
3. Coleman
4. Shelby
5. Evan
6. Doak
7. Spe
8. Corey
9. Sean
10. Cameron
11. Brian
12. Tim
This week, I’m going to do the NFL matchups.
Texans-Chiefs is in the books already. I will say I expected much more of a timeshare between CEH and Williams, especially since Williams seemed to be handling all of the passing-down work. I feel like the flow of the game allowed the Chiefs to keep CEH in the game. Had the game gotten close or had the Chiefs needed to pass it ever, maybe we’d have seen a split. Now, though, shit. Maybe CEH takes it all and never gives it up. The Texans looked like crap. The Chiefs did a good job attacking and keeping Watson uncomfortable. It’s clear the Chiefs’ run defense is rough. David Johnson looked good, but did he really? Some of that was trash defense. Also trash: Randall Cobb getting zero targets for three quarters then getting four in the 4th. What else? The Texans’ line misses DJ Reader. And their secondary is just plain missing. The jury is out on the Chiefs’ defense. The Texans weren’t ready for a real game, and the Chiefs were. Good coaching showed up. It’s going to be a theme of the first week and probably the first half of the season.
Jets-Bills should be an absolute blowout. I’m tempted to see it as a defensive battle with a combined 50 carries, but Bills’ OC Brian Daboll is known for his creativity. Besides, the Bills have a solid line and freaking dynamic athletes all over the place. Also, the Jets’ defense is a mess. No Adams, no Mosley, no Williamson, and I’m pretty sure all of their corners are slot corners, or just backups. The Bills will scheme open receivers, making it easy for Josh Allen to hit the 60% threshold he needs to secure a win. Darnold throws two picks. Bell can’t find any running room, probably ends the game with like 60-70 yards and no scores. Will the Jets score at all? This is the main question, for me. I could see them moving the ball on a couple big plays and getting field goal opportunities. It’s hard to imagine them stringing together enough big plays to score a TD. It would have to be a complete breakdown in coverage on Buffalo’s part, and man, have you seen this secondary? No way that’s happening. Again, coaching shows up here, and McDermott stomps Gase’s face. If you just have that tingly feeling that makes you want to start a Bill this week, do it. If you’re nervous about your Jets, trust those feelings!
Seahawks-Falcons will feature two teams pretending they know a lot about defense, but there has never been any proof that Pete Carroll’s Cover 3 scheme is worth anything when there isn’t a stacked roster involved. It’s failed literally every season it hasn’t featured the Legion of Boom or whatever we might call the Chargers’ D when they’re all healthy. So if you like an offensive player on either side, start him with confidence. And if we have an offensive slugfest in a dome, we want those kickers, too. Tim has Koo, but whatever goober the Seahawks roll out there might luck into 15 points.
Eagles-FootballTeam will feature a team two teams we feel like we know in a situation we expect we can predict, but I’m confident this will be the surprise game of the week. (I say that like I’ve looked at all the matchups and this is part of a plan.) I believe the Football Team will be pretty good because they’re well-coached. I wish their secondary on defense was better, but with the Eagles’ O-line all fucked up, it’s a great opportunity for what could be a legendary front-four in Washington. Four consecutive years’ first-round picks built a line that goes Montez Sweat, Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Chase Young, with 2011 1st Rounder Ryan Kerrigan in the rotation, kind of like the Dee Ford if this were San Fran. It’s gonna be great. Carson Wentz is going to get his dick knocked in the dirt about ten times, half for sacks. And with Miles Sanders OUT, I’m curious whether we have a full-on upset about to happen. The Eagles are well-coached, on offense at least, but they might just lack the bodies. There will be fantasy points, especially for the Eagles’ TEs. I’m curious how The Football Team might score their points. They are going to have some crazy shit drawn up, and since the Eagles’ back-seven lacks familiarity with each other, all it takes is getting past the defensive line to make shit happen. I don’t have feelings about specific pieces of the Washington offense; I just think they’ll score a few TDs on, mm, not necessarily “trick” plays, but impactful misdirection.
Browns-Ravens will be all Ravens. Strictly going by this coaching theme, the Browns are just too new. Maybe the defense will have some of its shit together, but they lost like all their starting LBs and safeties from last season, and since those are the players that need to be perfect to do anything against Lamar, they’re fucked. Super-duper fucked. The Browns’ offense will be good one day, but that won’t be today. Chubb is a good start, but I’m not confident in the rest of it. The Ravens will remember getting caught sleeping by Cleveland early last year, and they will be wide awake for this one. I don’t think Hollywood can beat Denzel Ward on his own, but I think the Ravens will do what they can to get the ball in his hands.
Dolphins-Pats will be an ugly game, one that I feel like the Dolphins have a slight advantage in. Everyone is giving the Pats this game, but the Dolphins are an improving team that is hungry. A game against the Pats is their Super Bowl. They’re going to be jacked up, and I’m pretty sure the Fins are faster than the Pats in all phases. The Pats added defensive speed in the draft, but are those players ready right now? The Fins have more consistency than most teams, and their additions are key. They brought in an elite CB and drafted two touted offensive linemen. The Pats will attack those rooks and get to Fitzpatrick, but he’ll be ready to sling it all day. I can see Miami scoring four TDs on just random shit. Meanwhile, the Pats won’t be ready to roll right away. I mean, I think the defense will start out okay. But the offense feels like it’s going to suck. When’s the last time we saw this offense without Brady OR Scarnecchia? It’s going to suck.
Packers-Vikings will be classic division stuff, meaning the game should be close but could be all field goals or all touchdowns. That’s why I’ve got Dan Bailey and why you should get Mason Crosby. Hell, I might turn around and get Mason Crosby. Nobody has Mason Crosby, right? I’ll tell you who I don’t want: either of these QBs. Are… are you guys ready for Matt Patricia’s Lions to win the NFC North? Because that’s what’s going to happen when Rodgers falls apart this year and Cousins can’t get it done without Stefanski and Diggs setting him up. Ugly. Which is why I’m taking the field goals in this one. Man, I really should snag Crosby if he’s there. I liked the Vikings better before Hunter went down. Even with Ngakoue, that line is suddenly sketchy. So yeah, all bets are off.
Colts-Jags will be all Colts. The team is just so solid. Even if Rivers sucks, they can run all over Jacksonville in this game, and the defense is talented, familiar with each other, and well-coached. It’s probably going to be a great season, but it’s definitely going to be a great Week 1 for Indy. The Jags won’t have their shit together on defense at all, and I believe the offense will struggle. It’s a tanking team, and the insane garbage time points won’t roll in this early against a defense like Indy’s. I wouldn’t start a single Jag. Meanwhile, I would start the Indy RBs and TY, but that’s it on offense.
Bears-Lions will be a coming out party for the future NFC North Champion Detroit Lions. The defense finally has enough former Patriots to reasonably be the 2017 Patriots. The offense quietly has one of the better lines in the league, and dudes, Matt Stafford is an elite QB. He’s the original Mahomes. If he had landed with an Andy Reid offense, he would have thrown for 5,000 yards five times by now. You think I’m embellishing, but I 100% believe this. So I’m starting every Lions receiver I can, and I’m starting the Bears’ receivers, too, because unlike the Packers-Vikes, this matchup is going to be about touchdowns. Of course, saying this makes me feel like I’ve flipped the truth, and now I’m desperately considering adding Matt Prater before kickoff. So I like this defenses okay eventually, just not now. Then again, in terms of continuity, we should expect them to start the year better than the average defenses, yeah? Well, I’m accomplishing nothing.
Raiders-Panthers feels like another offensive slugfest. In fact, I would dare to say it’s can’t-miss, even though the Raiders are starting two rookie WRs and the Panthers are basically a brand new offense despite bringing back most of their starters from last year. New coach plus new QB could be really sexy, assuming they’re on the same page. If they’re still jelling, which is likely, then it could be all Raiders. However, I can also see a situation in which the Panthers have 15 really good plays installed for the scripted series. They jump out to a 14-point lead while the Raiders miss a couple chances. That underdog status gives a team fire, especially a couple of college coaches. They’re the classic Bill Simmons “Nobody Believes in Us” Team. I mean, nobody believes in the Jaguars, either, but I think a prerequisite of a team’s success is that they believe in themselves. I think the Panthers believe in themselves. I think the Raiders pretend to believe in themselves while secretly doubting themselves, which is why they fall apart. Still, I would take a chance and start some Raiders against what should be a pretty bad Panthers defense early in the year.
Chargers-Bengals was going to be about the Chargers defense and running game just hammering the Bengals every which way, but without Derwin, I question the identity of that defense. They have plenty of talent, but I feel like doubt has to creep in about how good they are without their best player. They’re not elite anymore, but they’re probably good enough and well-coached enough to get through what should be a mediocre Bengals’ squad. Then again, much like the Eagles-FootballTeam matchup, we could easily be in for an upset. The Bengals’ defensive line and safeties are very good, and their LBs at least have familiarity. I don’t have a lot of faith in Tyrod, like, burying a defense. I think it will be a slow-paced offensive plan for LA, which gives the Bengals impetus to take shots when they finally get the ball back. If an offense has the ball too long, their own defense can lose rhythm. I don’t know. I know the Chargers are the better team in basically every way. I think I drank too much Joe Burrow Kool-Aid. It’s like an acid trip that never ends. I… believe in the Bengals.
Cards-49ers is a game I don’t want to touch. We don’t even know if they’ll play, so I’m not starting any of them. What they have in common is the offenses just hit the open guy, regardless of where exactly that takes them. I could see a lot of points being scored, but I doubt I can guess who will score them. Of course, I can just guess the priciest guys, your Nuks and Kittles, but Sherman can lock down Hopkins, and the Cards brought in two extra dynamic LBs to help defend Kittle. It could be a Jordan Reed renaissance for all we know. We could see Christian Kirk have 200 yards when the defense has everyone but him blanketed. I’m off this one.
Bucs-Saints has my full attention, so I’m glad Lamar is playing in the early window. Way too many teams are playing in the early window. Why doe we have nine games at 1 EST and three games at 4? What is the scam? Are the ad dollars that bad? Or does Fox rig the deck so that everyone basically has to watch “the Game of the Week?” I don’t care. I’m guessing this will be an offensive game. Both coaches will come out with plenty ready. This isn’t the kind of game where you hold stuff back. Even if you’re putting stuff on tape too soon, you’re doing it because you need to assert dominance over your rival and give your team that essential confidence boost they can’t get anything like soon afterward. What do I think happens? I think if Mike Evans plays the whole game, the Bucs win. I don’t think he’s like the ultimate X-Factor or anything. I just think if our whole offense is out there, it’s better than their defense. The Saints will also be without one starting lineman one each side of the ball. If I had to take a stance right now, I’d say their offense is better than our defense, too, which is why I’d start everyone on either offense. I’d even start Evans if they said he was going to play. I’m a sucker, I know.
I’m running out of steam, and I don’t care about the remaining games. Let’s get to the predictions:
Melee Week Winners
Oliver
Kennedy
Coleman
Spencer
Shelby
Sean
Losers
The rest of us
Good luck to all, anyway!
