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Keepers: Drew Brees, Bob Woods
The story on Oliver is volume. Opportunity is king in fantasy, but in order to finish #1 at your position, you have be able to maximize that opportunity with luck and efficiency. With five picks in the top-25, Oliver can start the draft with three straight RBs and still leave the third round with a full offense (QB through FX). With all 16 picks before the 12th Round, his team is supposed to leave the draft in the best position to win early in the season. He is in position to be able to draft his favorite players in the middle rounds with no risk of losing opportunity cost by reaching. The problem with this setup is that it eschews value, which portends a lack of efficiency, which turns this from a potential juggernaut into a house of cards. Draft picks are capital, and if you control capital, you have the power the control everything. The question is not whether you are positioned to succeed; the question is whether you can handle the responsibility.
My assumption: Oliver gets a little too comfortable, maybe even a little to inebriated. His complacency leads to boredom leads to taking unnecessary risks “to feel alive.” In a draft where he can leave with literally twice the value of not just the average team but perhaps the second-richest team, Oliver instead leaves on top but having lost some of the head start he had entering the draft.
Keepers: DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin
The story here is past efficiency hampered by a lack of innovation. This happens to teams in the NFL all the time. The Rams are a recent example. They see so much value in what they do well that they narrow their focus and lose sight of what they could be adding in order to maintain their advantage. Coleman drafts a good team, but he doesn’t make moves during the season unless he’s compelled by either bye weeks or injuries. So as the season progresses, Coleman’s team regresses. It becomes what it is, when what you need to thrive is for your team to transcend. Coleman enters the draft with an advantage over most drafters. In addition to his normal allotment of picks, he has the #37 overall pick as a bonus. 37 is a beautiful pick this year. Besides being the first pick of the keeper rounds, it’s especially good this year because of how much value is being pushed down the board by so many keeper QBs. Last year, we kept 14 RBs and by pick 37, we drafted another 17 RBs. This meant that at Pick 37, your best bet at RB would be the 32nd, ideally the worst starter but more realistically some timeshare RB you might hope emerges to become a starter. This year, we’re keeping six RBs, and given we’ve draft between 16 and 20 RBs each season since 2015, that leaves a solid group of starting RBs at that 37th pick, in addition to the quality starting WRs (and other positions) that are always there. This is a long-winded way of saying Coleman has an extra starter. If he drafts like he usually does, he will have a clear advantage to start the season. Even if he sticks to his routine as it pertains to free agency, he will be in position to add to his typical win total, which gives him a better chance of making the playoffs than everyone but Oliver at the outset, especially since Coleman’s keepers are siiiiick. While other teams have better keepers in terms of the draft capital they represent, Coleman’s keepers rival any of them in terms of output, not to mention set him up to spend early on RBs without risking fragility.
My assumption: Coleman wins the draft when, in addition to having that extra quality starter, he soaks up value with his late picks.
Keepers: Kenyan Drake and Tom Brady
After averaging 22.5 ppg in eight Cards games, Drake is being drafted ahead of DeAndre Hopkins this season. That gives Corey potentially the most valuable single keeper (challenged by Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry). Brady does not come with draft capital, nor does he have much of a chance to finish high among QBs without rushing upside. He would have to lead the league in touchdowns. So Corey starts with average keepers—don’t get me wrong; they’re good, but this is true for almost all of us (sorry, Sean)—and Corey’s draft capital is average. He enters with his original allotment of picks. The advantage he has is that the top three picks look more like sure things than the other first-rounders. It’s CMC, Saquon, and Zeke, in some order. If Corey is like the rest of us, he’s hoping for Saquon but will settle for Zeke. I suppose there’s a chance he gets creative and takes a different RB there, but since it’s so unclear who that would be or how you would make the argument for them above Zeke, it’s gonna be Zeke. With Zeke and Drake, Corey has a nice foundation to be able to go get some top-15 WRs with his next two picks.
My assumption: the Zeke-Drake combo is the best RB duo we have to start the season. I hesitate to make Drake sound like a sure thing. I have doubts. But it’s a contract year for him, and that offense is just perfect for RBs in a fantasy context. In an average league, having the best starting RBs is as firm a foundation as you need to compete for the ship. If Tom Brady hits his ceiling, and Corey gets just one of those WRs to outplay his ADP, then he’s got the building blocks in place for a potential playoff-storming juggernaut.
Keepers: AJ Green and Josh Allen
It’s not good. In fact, it’s so bad that I don’t even have to explain it. The saving grace is that one used to be a top-10 WR and the other has rushing upside and is surrounded by good players. Sean also enters with his initial allotment of picks, and drafting outside the top three means he has to play the guessing game of who’s the fourth best RB. Do not get cute. Do not draft a WR in this position. If you’re really lost on what to do, Alvin Kamara seems like the clear #4 to me. Among the reasonable options, he plays behind the best line with the best QB.
My assumption: the keeper situation does not work out. Josh Allen needed nine rushing TDs to be relevant last season, and even then he wasn’t the type of guy you started unless your starter was somehow worse (or just plain injured). I don’t believe AJ Green can stay on the field. I think he will miss a month’s worth of action and play like crap in a couple other games. If I were Sean, I would have kept Bobby Wagner and Harrison Butker, since I at least know I can start them every week.
Keepers: Pat Mahomes and AJ Brown
Here’s another contender for best duo of keepers. Mahomes is the likely top QB top overall player, and Brown could finish in the top-10 WRs if he gets enough TDs. I heard a great point about Mahomes recently: people undervalue his rushing upside. He rushed for 45 yards per game in the playoffs last year—not the fantasy playoffs, the actual playoffs where he won all the games and got the big trophy and the pretty ring. Look, he hasn’t done that in the regular season in either of the last two years, but even if he doesn’t average 45 yards per game, we know he can scoot and it raises his individual game ceiling. AJ Brown is one of the best YAC guys in the league at any position, partly because he gets open but also because he breaks tackles (tied for 2nd among WRs last year). Spencer combines this explosive upside with his initial allotment of picks, starting with a RB at 5 overall and being wide open to draft BPA (best player available, regardless of position) from there on out. I’ll spell it out. You people drafting early in the first round don’t have to draft RBs, but if you want points, that’s where you get them.
My assumption: Spencer stacks Mahomes with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It’s the upside play. It feels like a lack of diversity, but the potential multiplier makes your individual game ceiling astronomical, and you can only win a season by winning the individual games that comprise that season. In the final season of his Mahomes marriage, Spencer needs to take bold strokes to compete for the ship. I wouldn’t be mad at a Dalvin Cook or a Josh Jacobs here, but if the Chiefs’ offense isn’t hitting it’s ceiling, neither are you. For the love of everything decent, please consider it. (For what it’s worth, I would back off this stance if any of the four RBs I mentioned going before this were somehow available.)
Keepers: Chris Carson and DJ Chark do doo do do
Opening with the sixth and seventh overall picks, Kennedy has the second best allotment of picks, but you could make the argument that it’s got the highest upside, especially when you compare his keepers to Oliver’s. With two top-7 picks, Kennedy can either have three potential RB1s (i.e., top-12 RBs), or he can balance two starting RBs with two starting WRs, with one of each being in the discussion for top-5 at his respective position. Given Chris Carson’s injury history, and given Kennedy has the 19th pick to grab a second starting WR (albeit without the top-5 upside), he could hoard RBs and start the year with higher potential point totals than any other team. (Side note: I’ve heard the take that the absence of one pure RB position in our lineups marginalizes the RB, and I don’t see any reason why that would be the case. You can start as many RBs as you always could. The new rule is intended to offer players relief late in the year when the RB well runs dry.) RBs score more points. Please stay on board. I know RBs fell out of favor for a couple years, but make no mistake: the top RBs score 50-100 more points than the top WRs. There is more fragility, which is why you start taking WRs earlier than we did ten years ago, but you don’t take even the best WRs over the top, like, ten RBs. You are taking a risk either way. Even though Michael Thomas and Julio Jones feel like automatic picks, you have to understand that they have to have historic seasons to outscore RBs who are merely performing where the top RBs perform every year. Look into the details of the 2017 season. Teams jumped the shark on fading the rushing offense, and it was the worst offensive season of the entire decade. 2018, however, was the best offensive season of the decade, and that’s because the coaches corrected. We are not going to witness some sort of LaDainian Tomlinson renaissance at the position, but we should expect to see teams using heavier formations to take advantage of the smaller linebackers and safeties continuing to be produced by the college system. I’m not wording this perfectly, but I hope the point is taken that RBs are not “about as valuable” as WRs, not in the first round, not in a league where you get a point per first down. I need you to understand that Leonard Fournette outscored Julio Jones last year. It wasn’t a significant margin, but it happened. People should agree that Lenny was meh last season, yet he finished above every WR except for Michael Thomas, who I remind you BROKE THE RECEPTIONS RECORD and still outscored Lenny by less than three points per game.
I’m tilting a little bit, but I’ll be fine, I promise.
My assumption: Kennedy gets cute and drafts Michael Thomas along with whatever RB is left because FUCK ME RIGHT. (I promise, I’m fine.) Kennedy considers my point but insists with his pick that it’s better to mitigate risk and skew elite WR in his starting lineup. The extra first rounder is a bonus. He still has his own 2nd and 3rd. He can leave the 3rd round with three RBs and three WRs, liberated to spend decent capital at other positions, with the RB/WR argument a total afterthought. But you know who won’t leave it alone? Me, baby. I will harp on this topic all year if the numbers support my stance.
(Note: I am leaving Evan to the end since he doesn’t have a first-round pick.)
Keepers: Aaron Jones and Landon Collins
As of Aug 27, Tim hasn’t actually set his keepers, so these are presumptive. Don’t get on my ass about it. Get on his. He could reasonably keep the Pats D over Collins, and he could make the deep dark horse move of keeping Calvin Ridley over Jones. Beyond that, Tim traded his 2nd and 9th Round picks to Oliver, getting a couple teen picks in exchange. That means this first pick is crucial. It might depend what Kennedy does, or it might be that Tim is locked in on either getting that second RB or balancing with a top WR. I’ll tell you what would be fucking sexy, though. With Aaron Jones kept and the eighth pick in the first and third rounds, Tim is in prime position to make the ultimate upside play: draft the Packers. Take Adams first and circle back to Rodgers—he’ll be there; it’s a pretty significant reach; in fact, you could wait until the 4th if you’re nasty. But either way, this is the play. The Packers defense is touted, but it’s not warranted. The offense will need big points to stay in the playoff mix.
My assumption: Tim does something more responsible, as there is better value at each of those early picks. Adams does have potential to finish first at the position, but pairing him with Aaron Jones feels gross to me. You’re basically buying the offense, which is why getting Rodgers on top isn’t a big deal. But I’m expecting Tim to diversify and take either a second RB or a different WR. Julio will be available, and he’s long been Tim’s dude.
Keepers: Chris Godwin and DeVante Parker
This is a tricky spot. The move is RB, but you have to believe in the guy you take because the easy RBs are mostly gone at this point. If you take a WR, you’re set, which is nice but ultimately doesn’t win seasons. Top RBs win seasons. If our championship seasons in this league are to be considered the primary indicators of what it takes to win it all, then you need top RBs—honestly, multiple top RBs. You can make an argument that I broke that trend, but Lamar scored as much on rushing stats alone as any of the top RBs, in addition to scoring like a QB besides that. He was basically two players. So I guess, Brian, if you can draft one player that plays like two players in this spot, then you can pass up on the best RB here and see what’s left when the draft circles back to you seven picks later.
My assumption: Brian will begrudgingly submit to my wisdom or become devoured by his own hubris. With his initial allotment of picks and a bad draft spot, he absolutely must find value picks in order to get a passing grade in the post-draft note, the established pinnacle of achievement and surefire decider of whether or not your team can compete.
Keepers: Derrick Henry and Kyler Murray
Here we have more stiff competition for the best keeper duo. Surely this is the favorite to lead all keeper duos in total fantasy points. If we copy/paste last season’s stats, this is the winner for sure. Typically, copy/paste is a poor projection model, but in this case, I could see it. Basically, for a few reasons I won’t get into, Kyler should score a little more while Henry scores a little less. Now, as far as Shelby’s draft, it’s chalk to start out, but 10th isn’t as bad a spot as (I think) spots 6-9 are. It’s relatively less complex guessing who will come back to you after the turn. You basically take your pick and have an idea of the next five guys on your board for the next pick. In the first round specifically, it’s not ideal, but I have an idea of who Shelby will take, and she can’t really go wrong—unless she takes an old RB; if you take an old RB in the top 10, you will almost definitely be disappointed.
My assumption: while I have dreams of Shelby taking DeAndre Hopkins to pair with Kyler Murray and reap that multiplier, I believe she will diversify, going with either the best available RB or taking Mike Evans, who actually isn’t the most fun player to own because even though he’s built like LeBron, he can’t protect his body like LeBron, and so he limps around grabbing his back and sometimes just can’t stay on the field. Am I negging Mike Evans to help him slide to my pick at 12? Maybe. Does shining a light on it negate the negging, convincing Shelby or Cam that Evans might be worth it, thus helping one of those last great RBs slide to my pick? We’ll truly never know.
Keepers: Dak Prescott and Darren Waller
Look, as someone keeping a QB and TE myself, I can’t judge Cam’s keepers too harshly. I mean, I’m keeping a fucking legend and pairing him with his own elite TE, but Cam is keeping the #2 overall player in fantasy from last season and pairing him a TE that finished above mine in total points. So I can judge him, just not too harshly. He enters the draft with his initial allotment of picks, and picking 11 is easy but tends to be maddening at the same time. You approach your pick with four options, but you usually favor two of them, then watch as the second one gets taken out from under you. It’ll be especially weird this year because I’m not the only one picking on that turn in the early rounds. Cameron will have to deal with some combination of Oliver, Coleman, and Kennedy sniping his second-faves.
My assumption: Cam open with one RB and one WR, in whatever order. The balance is to take your favorite guy while considering whether your favorite guy is the better value and/or in the top-2 of the guy behind you. Last season, Cam went heavy on rookie RBs in the middle rounds, a move he will not have the luxury to repeat. Without Kamara as keeper and Zeke falling to 12 overall, Cam will have to bring his A-game to leave with a roster in the top half of our league. Specifically, he’s trying to outdo Oliver, Coleman, and Kennedy in that regard to, so it’ll be extra spicy when they pick between his pairs.
Keepers: Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews
Speaking of not copy/pasting to make projections, I am nerrrvous about this season. I had to literally beg, borrow, and steal to make it happen last season, and I have no bargaining chips left. My only recourse is to play the values. Wherever you guys leave someone on the board hoping he’ll be back at your next pick, I’ll be there. I will try my best to finally not play favorites and draft strictly on value, making my horrible lot of picks into the semblance of an average roster. I am screwed, for sure. My valuable picks, as I see them, are (in order): 12, 36, 84, 85, 108, 109. My first eight players will be my keepers and those picks. I don’t envision a trade because I don’t envision an increase in value from trading. I’m not working next year’s picks into this year’s draft, and I recommend you have that same attitude. I almost have to go RB with that 12th overall pick. I don’t have enough faith or clarity to leave my starting RB to the end of the 3rd Round. That 36th overall pick is basically like the 50th player off the board, and I would never wait that long for RB (or at least I haven’t since the Golden Age of Zero-RB).
I… look, I don’t see myself competing for the ship this year, but I do think I have as much opportunity to sneak into the playoffs as anyone. An injury to any of my best players will not just screw me but probably lock me into double-digit losses. Honestly, whatever happens, I’m cool. I am the reigning champ until one of you takes the belt, and by that time, the season will be over and I will be looking forward to having a normal draft again—and of course, by normal, I mean one where I’m sending each of you twelve convoluted offers that ultimately become marginal moves as it relates to their long-term value. That said, if you want to offer a trade, I’m game. That 36 overall is still on the block.
Keepers: Nick Chubb and Ronald Jones
This is the dark horse among the realistic candidates for best keeper duo. Assuming Christian McCaffrey doesn’t break the game again, Nick Chubb could lead the position. I see him doing it off rushing alone, though chipping in 300 receiving yards wouldn’t hurt. Ronald Jones is a mystery. He entered the league 205 pounds, projected to be a chang-of-pace home run hitter. He bulked up ten pounds each of the last two offseasons, so we’re looking at a completely different player. The buzz has him starting, and I can’t guess the depth chart behind him, so he might get 200 carries, in which case Evan could thrive despite lacking a first-round pick.
My assumption: Evan will open his draft at 18 overall, and what he does there will depend on what we leave him. There are a couple RBs and a handful of WRs that would be quality options. I could see a splash play here, something that shifts the scales and puts us on our heels. I don’t know that I want to give away what that looks like. Not that there’s anything we can do about it anyway.
The only pick that matters is the one on the clock.
Have fun and don’t get too drunk.
When you reach, do it for upside.
In general, hedging in fantasy football does not exist. If you hedge your bets on anything, in general, you need to look in the mirror and confront the paradox of being simultaneously risk-averse and addicted to gambling. Seek help before you annihilate yourself.
Make silly trades. They’re fun.
Generally speaking, there are plenty of players missing practice because of soreness and maintenance and shit like that. Below are the major news items.
Arizona – none
Atlanta – Gurley is not “injured” but his baseline health is lower than most RBs
Baltimore – none
Buffalo – none
Carolina – none
Chicago – David Montgomery (groin) highly questionable for Week 1.
Cincy – AJ Green (hammy) missed almost two weeks but is back. So it begins.
Rookie Tee Higgins (hammy) missed a few weeks to start camp but is back.
Joe Mixon (migraines) missed practice August 27.
Cleveland – Nick Chubb had a concussion but he’s back.
Dallas – none
Denver – Rookie KJ Hamler is going to miss a solid chunk of the season.
Detroit – Rookie D’Andre Swift (leg?) is day-to-day.
In response to multiple knee injuries to start his career, Kerryon is going to wear a knee brace in games this season. He has also missed some practice but will play (and possibly start) Week 1.
Green Bay – none
Houston – none
Indy – Jack Doyle recently missed a few days with a neck problem.
Jacksonville – Dede (shoulder) is week-to-week.
Kansas City – Damien Williams and starting OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out.
Las Vegas – Tyrell Williams is playing through a torn labrum (but y tho?).
LA Chargers – Mike Williams (shoulder) is out 2-6 weeks.
LA Rams – Darrell Henderson (hammy) is questionable for Week 1.
Miami – none
Minnesota – none
New England – Sony Michel started camp on the PUP and was activated August 26. In that time, Damien Harris got maaad hype as a potential three-down back.
New Orleans – none
NY Giants – none
NY Jets – Breshad Perriman (knee) is expected to return to practice Saturday, and rookie Denzel Mims (hammy) is still day-to-day. CJ Mosley opted out.
Philly – Miles Sanders (lower body?) is week-to-week but supposedly will play Week 1. The starting LT and RG are on injured reserve (i.e., will miss the season)
Pittsburgh – none
San Fran – Deebo (knee) and Aiyuk (hammy) questionable for Week 1.
Seattle – none
Tampa – none
Tennessee – none
Washington – Chase Young (hip) is day-to-day.
This section attempts to summarize the fantasy outlooks for every draftworthy player on every team. I’ve also provided condensed rankings for each team beneath the summaries.
Innovative, aggressive offense. Kliff Kingsbury took them from 32nd in offensive DVOA to 13th. Three WRs and one RB see a lot of snaps. Despite using three and four WRs at a time, they run plenty, and they run well. They had three 200+ yard rushing games last season, two of them in the final three games.
Kyler Murray is a second-year QB with a mediocre O-line, but before he was a Heisman-winner, he was drafted by the Oakland A’s to play center field. He has wheels and a cannon, giving him a high fantasy floor.
In the eight games Kenyan Drake played for the Cards, he had high scores of 33, 36, and 45. Chase Edmonds had similar numbers to Drake, even had a 37-point game before Drake arrived. My point is that it’s the system. Any RB getting work in this system is going to pop off at some point.
The rumor is that Hopkins is in decline. It’s been going around since at least the time of the trade. I buy it. He went through some shit before Watson became a full time starter. He played hurt and for bad QBs who repeatedly sold him out. He’s only 28, but there have been star receivers who stopped being stars after 28. Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are recent examples. Combine this possibility with the possibility that his target-volume will take a hit moving to a spread offense with talent around him.
The TE position in this offense is worthless for fantasy. You want the QB, two RBs, and three WRs. If anyone except the QB goes down, I would invest in the next man up.
With an offense this hyped, you want the kicker.
On defense, I doubt Jordan Hicks repeats as the tackle monster he was in 2019. They added two starting-caliber off-ball LBs in Campbell and Simmons, signings which potentially hurt Budda Baker’s tackle numbers as well. The guy you want is Chandler Jones.
Condensed Ranks
Hopkins
Drake
Kyler
Kirk
Budda
Edmonds
Chandler
Fitz
WR#4 (pick a name out of a hat)
Look, I don’t like the Falcons. But I like them for fantasy. Dirk Koetter makes my face itch, but he runs a good fantasy offense.
Matt Ryan isn’t always good, but he’s always cheap, and he tends to score above league average. He’s comfortable in this offense and has weapons. The main ones are (in order) Julio, Gurley, Ridley, and new arrival Hayden Hurst. There aren’t many obvious options, which says to me that there will be great volume for each of them. Julio’s getting drafted in the 1st, Gurley on the 2/3 border, and Ridley on the 3/4 border. A sleeper WR is slot-man Russell Gage, who is the favorite to be fifth in target volume.
My mention of Hurst here will probably upset someone who thinks he’ll drift late into the draft. Look at Austin Hooper’s number from last season. Understand that the Ravens didn’t trade Hurst to Atlanta because of poor performance. They traded him because he’s a worse receiver than Mark Andrews (most TEs are) and a worse blocker than Nick Boyle (again, most are), and the Falcons offered a second-round pick. Koetter’s offense targets the TE a lot and targets them in the red zone. Hurst is a screaming, scorching hot value being drafted outside the top-12 TE. If he’s 80% of Austin Hooper, he’s a starting TE. With only 10 TEs good enough start each week—honestly even #10 tends to be weak—it means theoretically at least two teams will leave the draft completely fucked. Don’t get fucked. Get Hurst.
Again, if the offense is good, the kicker is worth a look. Younghoe Koo is especially fun.
I want no part of this defense except sweet Keanu, who I probably can’t afford.
Condensed Ranks
Julio
Ridley
Gurley
Hurst
Ryan
Keanu
Gage
I have Lamar and Andrews locked up, and I’m hesitant to take any more pieces, but I’ll at least talk a little about them for your benefit.
Ingram is the starter. He has the bulk, the skill, the familiarity in the system, the chemistry at the mesh point with Lamar, big truzzz, etc. He was always supposed to start this year. But JK Dobbins wasn’t supposed to be available to Baltimore late in the second round of the draft. Suddenly they abound with riches at the RB position, and they will definitely try to get both of these guys involved. What you might not know about Dobbins is that he’s electric. He’s not Lamar or anything, but there aren’t many runners like him in the NFL. Evan will appreciate this: everything we hoped Ronald Jones might potentially be, in our dreams of dreams, that’s what JK Dobbins actually is. He’s peak Reggie Bush without the ego, and he’s in the type of offense to unlock that potential. Will it translate to fantasy success this year? Meh. Baltimore has shown that whoever clicks with Jackson will get time. That’s how Gus Edwards got so much time last year. Edwards has zero fantasy value right now but deserves a mention for being yet another fore dragging down Ingram’s ceiling.
Hollywood Brown flashed last season with five double-digit games, including a 31-point game where he only played 18% of snaps. There’s hope he can become a healthy starting WR and do DeSean Jackson things (but only the good ones), and there’s blind optimism he could be a Tyreek Hill type fantasy figure. The only other WR I’m even considering is fellow sophomore Miles Boykin, who started most of last year and should see more targets as teams attempt to force Lamar to throw.
You want Justin Tucker, and you want the defense. Bad enough that you’ll probably “reach” but it won’t feel like a reach when everyone else is streaming those positions and you’re getting a solid 15 every week, often more.
Earl Thomas ruined everything this weekend. He punched his teammate and got kicked off the team. It’s no surprise, honestly, after the way things went in Seattle to even get him to Baltimore in the first place. Dude doesn’t get along with people. I think part of the decision is also that’s he’s lost a step. He’s still better than any of their safeties, still better than half the safeties in the league, but he’s in decline. This is an opportunity for their young dudes to ascend. It’s shitty for fantasy since having an inexperienced secondary just ruins a defense.
The IDPs I like are new acquisitions Calais Campbell and Patrick Queen. Matt Judon is in a contract year, but it would take a lot of sacks for him to be a consistent starter in our scoring format.
Condensed Ranks
Lamar
Andrews
Ingram
Tucker
Hollywood
Boykin
Dobbins
Queen
DST
Campbell
It’s sort of the Moneyball of football teams, and while I say that mostly because Billy Beane’s son is the GM, I also think it’s true. Most of their talent is quality draft picks combined with undervalued veterans. Look at the safeties alone. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are quality players cast off of their original teams because they were small and couldn’t lay the lumber, but it doesn’t matter because they excel in coverage and don’t blow tackles trying to hit-stick people. Generally speaking, Buffalo built a team without overpaying people, so they have no bloat and are maybe the deepest team in the league because of it.
It’s bad for fantasy because having a good, deep (if unspectacular) defense reduces the pace of play that leads to increased snaps and touches. Ideally, the offense runs a lot and gets big plays from playaction. This means you want the starting RB, Singletary. In this case, the QB runs well, too, so you want Allen, but you don’t reeeeally want him because he’s unpredictable. Rewatch that weird pitch he did near the end of the playoff game against Houston. He’s crazy raw. Beat writers all agree he’s been inconsistent in camp. His volatility will give you a handful of huge games, but there’s serious bust potential. While Allen’s rushing upside appears to give him a solid floor, his decision-making takes a jackhammer to it.
So you want Singletary, and if this team is running the ball 300+ times this season, you probably want Zack Moss, as well. Moss is alleged to be showing some receiving prowess in camp, but that’s unsubstantiated.
What Billy Beane has never been allowed to do because of money is go out and get a big star to put his team over the top. Thanks to salary cap rules, the Bills are required to spend their money eventually, so Brandon Beane went out and acquired Stefon Diggs (in his prime) to give Josh Allen an all-around stud as opposed to the crew of narrow talents he had in 2019. I don’t believe Allen is accurate enough to make it work, and I lack the draft capital to acquire Diggs anyway. I’m only considering John Brown, who will be available for cheap yet again. When I say I expect Buffalo to run and setup playaction, I mean I expect those playcation plays to be shots down the field. So while Diggs is drawing double coverage on one side, Brown is streaking down the other on his way to four or five 50-yard TDs. Normally, I’m not drawn to the boom-bust WRs, but this year I don’t really have the luxury to discriminate.
TE Dawson Knox is free, and free is good. If he has a good game early on, and your draft pick isn’t working out, take that flyer. He’s super athletic and has already made huge plays in important games. Could be this year’s big TE breakout.
Buffalo kicker? NOPE. I mean, I like Hauschka a lot, but NOPE.
The DST is elite, but the IDP sitch is sketchy. Deep teams spread the wealth, which is worthless when there are 15 more reliable players out there at each position. Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, and Jordan Poyer have been the ones getting points in recent years, and they are all cheap or free.
Condensed Ranks
Singletary
Diggs
Moss
Brown
Allen
Tremaine
Poyer
There are two ways I see this playing out.
On one extreme, the Panthers blew it up at the wrong time and there’s no hope to build chemistry in a year when we’re not allowed to hang out. They have inexperienced coaches and a hodge-podge of unproven talents expected to compete in a division with Brady, Brees, and Ryan (yeah, I’m surprised I threw Ryan in, too). Keep in mind not only are the coaches inexperienced, they are expected to experiment with what works at this level. It’s dicey.
On the other extreme, there’s no better time to innovate. The playbook has been thrown out in so many aspects of life that you might as well rethink the way we do everything, absolutely everything, so why not have new coaches, new QB, new systems, new attitudes, whatever. I don’t have much to work with tangibly, but the point is that thinking outside the box and taking chances gets results you don’t expect.
Either way, I’m not fucking with it. DJ Moore is cool, but considering I have one pick in range of where I might be able to afford him, I doubt I’ll buy in to that much uncertainty for a team I don’t even want to watch. Zooming out, a general fan of the NFL can be excited about this offense. McCaffrey is coming off an impossibly good year, worthy of a literal us of the phrase “the likes of which we’ve never seen before,” so there is anxiety among fantasy experts because McCaffrey’s the #1, but the #1 RB rarely repeats. I don’t have the stats on hand; you’ll just have to believe me. Search your soul; you’ll find it to be true.
I like the WR room, led by Moore, but I don’t know how to rank Samuel and Anderson. Normally the guy who’s been on the team for a few years (Samuel) would have an advantage, but there’s a new QB and a new playbook. Anderson was hand-picked by this new coaching staff and has more experience carrying a shitty team. He’s also taller and has a larger catch radius. Samuel is faster and has a more developed route tree. He also has the better pedigree as a former Buckeye, whereas Anderson went to Temple, but it’s dangerous to think this way about people. If I were to paint with broad strokes, I would say Samuel has better route-running and more proof he can thrive in a complex system. Anderson made a lot of hay off broken plays in New York. I also think we as a nation are underrating Sam Darnold’s deep ball, and Teddy just doesn’t sling it like that. I assume Samuel is the slot receiver, more likely to operate underneath, so that gives him a slight edge. If the defense is as mediocre as it’s supposed to be, there should be enough offensive volume to support both of them as like WR4s (i.e., WRs ranked in the 36-48 range) with upside.
Ian Thomas is the unquestioned starter, and he’s going to be available late, like really late, potentially undrafted. Teddy has a reputation of taking what the defense gives him, and with blazing WRs going in every direction, Thomas will be smack in the middle of it, steady as a stagecoach (not a real saying). It’s hard to get excited about Thomas since there are so many other attractive TEs, but if he has a good game early on, and your TE situation has some doubt, don’t hesitate to pick him up.
K Joey Slye is a fucking unit and if you can’t get behind that, don’t draft a kicker at all.
Big fat NOPE to this defense, but I’m intrigued by a couple athletes, namely Brian Burns and Shaq Thompson. If Burns is eligible at DL, our Brian is drafting him in like the ninth. Thompson isn’t top-12 on paper, but the MLB behind a shitty line tends to rack up tackles.
Condensed Ranks
McCafe
Moore
Samuel
Anderson
Thomas
Teddy
Thompson
Slye
Burns (if DL elig.)
Per Bears beat reporter Alyssa Barbieri: “Perhaps it’s that Foles isn’t a great practice player, but Foles hasn’t separated himself from Trubisky like many expected him to do. Although, to be fair, Trubisky hasn’t done so either.”
Matt Nagy might draw up some good plays, but he doesn’t know how to maximize his talent. The acquisition of Nick Foles is interesting. If Matt Nagy initiated it, then it signals a limited imagination and/or limited confidence in himself as a motivator/teacher. If GM Ryan Pace initiated, it is the scientific method in action: if we hired Nagy because he’s an acolyte of the Andy Reid offense, and every other Reid-descendant has made it work with Nick Foles, then we can isolate whether Matt Nagy actually knows what he’s doing by adding Nick Foles and seeing what happens.
Luckily for fantasy, there are two players on this team who don’t care who the QB is.
David Montgomery and Allen Robinson will eat no matter what. I like Robinson a lot this year. He’s 27 and he’s heading into a contract year. If he’s at-all reasonable, he wants the hell out of town, and he’s made a whole career of feasting even when his QB can’t cook for shit. I expect Coleman to keep him, mostly for the Chicago connection but hopefully also because he realizes the power of a contract year.
Montgomery is just solid. He’s 220, but he’s nimble and often credited for his exceptional balance. He can pound the rock, and he can catch it. Dudes, Matt Nagy is so bad at coaching that he wasted Tarik Cohen, who is also in a contract year but without the same ability to capitalize as a prototypical WR1 like Robinson. Cohen could be great in 2021 when he finds a team that unlocks him, but for now, he’s an unsettling option. He’s typically expensive because he’s so talented, but he’s difficult to insert into the lineup because his usage varies so wildly. On top of that he is too small to take over as a traditional starter. Any situation where Tarik Cohen gets the workload of a feature back would be the product of an imaginative offense, and this ain’t it. Draft him, but be reasonable.
The other WRs mean very little to me. Anthony Miller is a good player, but the offense is just such trash. BUT if Trubisky is indeed the issue, Foles’ insertion into the lineup could save the day for not only Miller but new additions Ted Ginn and Jimmy Graham.
Last summer’s kicker competition was more evidence that Nagy sucks. Remember, the Bears went 12-4 two years ago but didn’t get a bye week because two other teams went 13-3. Okay, so they played Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Down by one with seconds on the clock, Chicago missed a 43-yard FG and lost. BUT what people don’t talk about is that Bears kicker Cody Parkey led that game in points. Nagy’s offense kept stalling in the red zone, setting Parkey up for three field goals under 36 yards. The Bears’ first touchdown came with nine minutes left in the game. Up by five after the TD, the Bears went for two and MISSED BUT WHY WASN’T THERE A TWO-POINT CONVERSION COMPETITION, MATT?
Eddy Pineiro won the kicking competition, but what is it worth on the league’s 25th ranked offense? (Update: the Bears have signed Cairo Santos… no, really.)
The defense should continue to decline with Chuck Pagano entering Year 2 of whitewashing Fangio’s brilliant system. The Bears dropped from #1 defense in 2018 to #10 in 2019 and should finished around 16th as they become perfectly average under Pagano’s tutelage.
Wow, way too many words on Chicago. Thanks, coffee.
Condensed Ranks
Robinson
Montgomery
Mack
Miller
Cohen
Roquan
Zac Taylor’s offense looked like it worked last season. I thought Dalton was working at a major disadvantage all year and made a lot of really nice plays that have been overshadowed by a disappointing stat line and a hopeless season.
That said, I don’t think Joe Burrow is ready for what’s going to happen to him this season. His offensive line is so, so bad, and while he’s whiteboy fast, he’s not Kyler Murray or Deshaun Watson fast, so while both of those dudes have had success despite being hammered behind bad lines, their “escapability” is what separated them from a much crueler fate. Some NFL teams are just fucking stupid. They think if the QB can get the ball out quick enough that it will mitigate bad line play, but young players can’t diagnose the play fast enough to consistently get the ball out quickly and without incident, especially when they know the hit is coming either way. To be clear, I’m not talking about one game. The punishment adds up over 16 games. Burrow just didn’t take that kind of abuse on a weekly basis at LSU, where he maxed out at 13 games. Note: I’ve glossed over the fact that Burrow played one good season in one ridiculously stacked offense. We know he can sling it from a clean pocket. We don’t know what happens when he’s getting smothered.
And while Joe Mixon is a potentially elite RB, the shitty O-line won’t do anything to unlock that potential. The hope is that Burrow checks down to him a bunch to buoy the overall fantasy output.
So where do we land on these receivers if we don’t think Burrow is set up to succeed? Since the defense is bad, I’m buying in. The Bengals’ only hope is to just keep firing into the night. If they’re down 20 at half every game, awesome. That means Burrow has to chuck it, and there are a bunch of quality targets out there. AJ Green is already hurt, as is Tee Higgins, while John Ross is home taking care of his kid (who has COVID). That means Tyler Boyd is continuing to ascend from slot receiver to WR1. He’s posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (granted last year it was volume-driven), so he’s a relatively cheap every-week starter somewhere in those early keeper rounds. If these injuries last long enough, there is another guy worth taking a flyer on, and that guy is former Florida State Seminole Auden Tate, who is 6’5” 230 and entering his third season coming off of a mini-breakout in 2019, averaging 50 yards per game and making some amazing catches.
I don’t care to invest even my time in TE here. It’s the fifth or sixth option on this offense, and it’s not like it’s getting scooped at the draft. If any Bengal has a big game, it’s worth looking into. I think they’re going to run a lot of plays and amass a bunch of garbage yards if nothing else.
Big fat NOPE to kicker and TE.
Condensed Ranks
Mixon
Boyd
Green
Burrow
Dunlap
Tate
Baker Mayfield is on his third coach in three years, and that’s pretty much always bad. Normally the coaches aren’t exceptionally awful like Baker’s have been, so while I’m tempted to suggest that if multiple offensive-minded coaches fail at making Baker the new Messiah, I understand that the big picture is more complicated. I think Hue would have made him really good if Hue were only in charge of the offense. I think Freddie Kitchens is laughably bad at leadership in general. Kevin Stefanski has designed good offenses. I’m a little skeptical because of how much talent he had in Minnesota, but he has a lot of talent in Cleveland, too, so it’s not like he has to turn turds into wine or anything.
Similar to the Joe Burrow problem, Baker benefitted from his situation in college. He was throwing to only half the field from a clean pocket. Cleveland has bolstered the offensive line, and part of this is to give Baker room to breathe and time to process. I don’t like it.
Mostly, I don’t like Baker Mayfield. I don’t like his face. Doesn’t mean he’s a bad QB. Just means I won’t have any part of it. I like Case Keenum’s good clean Mormon-esque visage, and I like even more that Cleveland signed him to a pretty rich contract ($20M total) to be the second QB for the next three years. That’s not starter money, but the length notably runs to the end of Baker’s deal (including his fifth-year option). Keenum knows the system from playing for Stefanski in Minnesota, which could mean he can accelerate the learning process for Baker and serve as high-caliber insurance, but it also means he could take over tomorrow and command the offense right away. It’s interesting. As someone who doesn’t like Baker and does like Keenum, I’m interested.
Nick Chubb would be a first-rounder if Evan wasn’t keeping him. Kareem Hunt is suspected to creep in and siphon some touches, but it’s not a timeshare. You like to keep your star RB in rhythm. You like him to feel confident and like he powers the offense, especially if te jury is out on your QB. You don’t rest Chubb and get him out of rhythm. You think you’re saving something, keeping some tread on the tires when you’re really letting air out. Hunt is going to get some love and potentially have some good games, but if you’re expecting a timeshare, it’s nothing more than wishful thinking. Hunt isn’t a lowly handcuff, but he’s definitely a backup.
While my Baker distrust can’t taint Nick Chubb, it makes me question the viability of his star-studded receivers. Don’t get me wrong; I’d draft any of OBJ, Landry, or Hooper, but I’m fading them a little. I’d definitely take Allen Robinson over him. I don’t trust Trubisky, but I trust Robinson. I don’t trust Baker or OBJ. I trust Landry, though. Love me some Bless’m.
I’m debating Austin Hooper. I think Koetter’s system pumped him up, but I think Stefanski’s system has the potential to pump him up, too. During his time in Atlanta, Hooper had about a 75% catch rate, and I credit at least 10% of that to Matt Ryan putting the ball where it’s supposed to be—honestly I have no idea when I started respecting Matt Ryan, but we’re here now. If Hooper’s catch rate drops to 65%, which I expect from Baker, and his volume stays around that 100 targets (which seems like a lot with Njoku still around), that subtracts one catch and ten yards per game, putting Hooper back at 2018 levels, which were startable but ultimately not worth more than, what, a 12th rounder?
There’s potential for the defense to do things. They have talent all over, and a few of their young players are becoming veterans overnight. It’s possible they become a legitimate streaming option.
If you draft Myles Garrett, we’re gonna scrap. That’s all I’m saying.
Condensed Ranks
Chubb
OBJ
Landry
Hooper
Hunt
Myles
Mayfield
The Cowboys appear to have karma concerns. All the shady shit they did in the 90s has had long-term effects on their aura, so even when they’re really good, they’re really bad. How else do you explain having top-10 players at QB, RB, and WR and not even sniffing the conference championship? I mean, bad defense, sure, but it feels more like divine interference than just a few bad breaks.
For whatever reason, I don’t support the Cowboys. I tend not to own them in fantasy. Zeke is an asshole, Dak was inconsistent until last year, and the receiving corps was a mess for a while there. Cam is keeping Dak, so that’s out, and I’m too far back to get Zeke even if I wanted him.
I like the WR corps a lot this year, and I guess I will target them wherever the value makes sense. Amari Cooper isn’t exactly consistent, but I’ve always loved watching him play. Whatever you do with the draft and your team and whatever, remember to enjoy the game. I imagine Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb will kind of split that 2nd WR role, getting more or less equal targets, with more going to Gallup early and then Lamb getting the advantage later. Normally, even a stud rookie would stay in third place behind two legitimate starters, but Gallup had a lot of drops last year, and Cooper had his fair share. In fact, Randall Cobb had a bunch of drops. Dak Prescott suffered the most drops of any QB, which could be an indictment of his receivers OR it could mean that Dak can’t throw a spiral OR it could mean official scorers ruled a bunch of Dak passes catchable when they weren’t because Jerry is paying big money to have the appearance of a franchise QB because even just that appearance sells out home games.
Simply put, I love Lamb and Cooper, but I can see how Gallup caps their upside.
Blake Jarwin is getting a lot of hype. I admit I don’t know much about him. He seems like an average TE who’s stumbled up a bad depth chart, and he gets the least of the defense’s attention on every snap, enabling him to soak up easy yards. I don’t see massive upside, but he should provide a good floor at a position that can be frustrating to fill.
Greg the Leg in a dome? Yes, please.
Don’t love the DST, but I’ll gladly take Jaylon Smith or Vander Esch if they fall in the draft. Haha Clinton-Dix might have a comeback in him. I was excited for Demarcus Lawrence to reach his fantasy potential after the signings of Dontari Poe and Gerald McCoy, but Poe is on the PUP and McCoy just ruptured his quad, so we might have to wait on that. Remember when teams decided to pay star pass-rushers like star WRs, despite there being no evidence that pass-rushing success was predictable or sustainable or did anything tangible when it came to adding points or wins?
(Fun fact for those who don’t listen to the Ringer NFL Show, per PFF analytics: the number of sacks it would take to guarantee you win the game is 15, while the league-record for sacks by one defense in one game is 12.
Follow-up on the same topic: the league-record for sacks in a game by a single player is seven, by Derrick Thomas, who was a god. On the final play of the game, Thomas got to the QB just late, and the pass was completed for a TD. Thomas’s team lost on the extra point. This isn’t why QB hits don’t score points in our league, but it certainly keeps me form entertaining adding them into the mix.)
Condensed Ranks
Zeke
Amari
Dak
Gallup
Lamb
Pollard
Jarwin
Greg
Jaylon
Vander Esch
Oliver will be pleased with what we see this season.
Drew Lock is legit. He’s not amazing, but he’s got whiteboy dance moves and beautiful balls. For fantasy, it’s meh because they won’t be a high-volume pass offense.
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay will split carries. Don’t come for my head if this doesn’t happen, but it is a sensible arrangement. Gordon has an injury history and will get all of the third down work, so it’s not like you’re drafting them back-to-back. Gordon is probably a second-rounder, while Lindsay is like a sixth/seventh with upside. Royce Freeman is toast.
Sutton is leading this team in targets this season, regardless of Jerry Jeudy’s potential. Rookie WRs take time to develop, but they also tend to start their careers playing with the backups. Denver doesn’t have much behind Sutton, so Jeudy is starting. It’s likely a two-TE kind of offense unless they’re trailing, but Fangio’s defense should be solid enough to keep it manageable.
TE Noah Fant gets a lot of love because he’s one of the fastest in the league. He’s built fine, not as big as the elite TEs, still a little skinny. That said, he gets open, and Lock knows to look for him. With the third WR in doubt and Pat Shurmur favoring two-TE sets, I expect Fant to be the fourth target, behind Sutton, Jeudy, and Gordon.
Love a Denver kicker (at home), and love a Fangio defense.
IDP-wise, it’s tough. Von Miller doesn’t score in our league unless he’s racking up sacks. The other guy worth a look is Justin Simmons, who tends to be on the fringe of the top 12 DBs. Bradley Chubb is just interesting enough to consider drafting late.
Condensed Ranks
Gordon
Sutton
Jeudy
Lindsay
Fant
Lock
DST
Chubb
McManus
Matt Patricia should be fired. I’m not saying it’s likely he will be; I’m saying he should currently be Matt Patricia, Former Head Coach of the Detroit Lions. I’m confused about why he remains. I can’t stand his coaching staff, either. OC Darrell Bevell has a tendency to lean on the run, and I hate it. Let Stafford air it out 600 times, PLEASE.
I always want a piece of Stafford. Having Lamar does nothing to dissuade me of that. The real problem is that I don’t have good enough picks.
Kerryon used to be my boy, but I’ve come to realize he’s just not that good. He’s going to be a great second fiddle to the Charlie Daniels that is D’Andre Swift, Swift supposedly being the best RB from the 2020 Draft. His issue is durability. In fact, he’s currently missing practice with a “minor leg injury.” Sounds promising. On top of that, Detroit’s running game has been bad since Barry Sanders left, so I have no faith this goes well. What I can say with confidence is don’t hedge on this backfield. Treat Swift as the starter and Kerryon as the backup. They might split carries early, but Kerryon can’t win the job. He’s slow, and he’s not big enough to make up for it. He’s kind of like, what if Charles Sims broke some tackles? D’Andre Swift is like, what if we cloned Joe Mixon with ~90% accuracy?
Kenny G is in the top tier of WRs on my board. He is speed and quickness are nothing special, but the way he uses his body is pure Fitzgerald. Draft him with high expectations. He had 1200 yards and 11 TDs last season, with Stafford missing half the games. His pace with Stafford was 1300 yards and 14 TDs. Take the risk and take him high! Above your OBJs and Jujus and shit. Embrace the future!
Marvin Jones is good, too. Worth a seventh or whatever.
I’m not buying anything else on the entire team. Not even TJ Hockenson. He could be good, but right now he’s all banged up.
Condensed Ranks
Golladay
Swift
Marvin
Stafford
Kerryon
Hockenson
Tracy Walker
Amendola (I’m sorry)
Jamie Collins
Prater
Aaron Rodgers sucks.
Condensed Ranks
Davante
Aaron Jones
Rodgers
DST
MVS
Lazard
Dillon
Crosby
Tonyan
Zadarius
Too easy to take shots at BOB. Plus it’s been done.
Deshaun Watson had the single best game of any player in our league last year, 59.5 points to be exact. He loses his best weapon ever and gets Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, and David Johnson to make up for it.
It could be fine. Leaning on your WR1 to produce is not a strategy, and it doesn’t tend to pay off even as a desperation play. Having a bunch of proven options will increase Watson’s confidence in the playbook and give him more opportunities to play creatively.
It could also be very, very bad. These are not super durable players, the Texans. I won’t go through the litany, but just vaguely think about how many Texans’ seasons are derailed by injuries to their best players. Hopkins was the only one playing every week, and now he’s gone.
David Johnson is supposedly going to be a bell-cow again. The Texans not only traded for him but agreed to pay his full salary, which is robust. Meanwhile, he’s passed the “age apex” for his position, and he’s suffered enough damage to have lost that extra gear. It’s probable that he gets tons of playing time and falls forward into start-worthy fantasy production. Keep Duke Johnson on your radar later on just in case. Duke is talented and stays healthy. It’s annoying he keeps getting passed over for starting duties. I get the impression he’s dumb and fucks up a lot of plays. I don’t know what else it could be.
I’m not comfortable assuming Brandin Cooks is the top target. I have an inkling that even if Randall Cobb is mostly the slot receiver, he will earn the confidence of Watson more than the other receivers. He will make more contested catches and find open space in the red zone more often. The Texans paid him like a starter (3 yrs, $27M), which I thought was crazy until I thought, okay, they are going to treat him like a starter. My favorite thing about Cobb is that he’s cheap. My second favorite thing is that he was once (literally once) a top-10 WR in fantasy. I’m aware this is a bad bet; I just need to believe in something with all these late picks. Will Fuller exists, but I’ve never liked him. It’s inevitable he will have his best game on your bench, so have fun with that. I’m having none of it.
There’s too much TE competition to be confident in one as more than a spot-start.
Ka’imi is on my short list of kickers worth drafting.
JJ Watt, obviosuly, and maybe Justin Reid. No love for the DST.
Condensed Ranks
Watson
DJ
Watt
Cobb
Cooks
Duke
Fuller
Ka’imi
The Colts’ best offensive player is Quenton Nelson, which means the Colts best fantasy player will be Jonathan Taylor. I’m willing to believe TY Hilton has a comeback in him or that Rivers has one good year left, but I’m mostly here for the JT experience. I’m also intrigued by Pittman. It’s rare that WRs stay for a senior year when they know they’ll get drafted after junior year. Granted, getting drafted in the fifth or sixth round doesn’t guarantee you much as a WR, and Pittman spent his senior year taking Ultimate Frisbee and getting engaged, in addition to working out or practicing for eight hours a day so I feel like he knows what he’s doing. He enters an ideal spot, with a clear path to the starting X receiver spot, with TY moving to Z. There is one player complicating things, and it’s Parris Campbell, who isn’t Keenan Allen but is the closest thing this team has to anything resembling Keenan Allen. It’s interesting but probably meaningless. The Colts are like the Eagles and Chiefs in that they use so many tertiary pieces that anyone who isn’t a full-time starter is unreliable. Still, Pittman and Parris are each worth a shot in the draft, just to see who gets the larger snap share.
The TEs are Jack Doyle and Trey Burton. Doyle has prototypical size but Burton has speed and athleticism. Coach Frank Reich won a Super Bowl ring because of Burton, and I like to think that he’ll favor him if there’s a competition. We already watched Doyle lose the starting job to Eric Ebron last year, so I low-key expect him to lose it to Burton. Burton’s size makes it difficult to see him starting in a technical sense, but he should see as many targets as a traditional starter, so it works out. Ultimately, I won’t draft either, opting instead to wait and see who wins the snap share early on in the year. If I miss out, so be it.
This defense should be incredible, especially given how predictable the opposing offense will be in their division. For IDP, I like Darius Leonard and have an eye on the DL, where there’s a chance for either DeForest Buckner or Justin Houston to be viable. The secondary is good but Leonard soaks up too many tackles for any of the DBs to be fantasy options.
I like the Colts kicker as a rule because of the dome and because the offense is supposed to be good. I think the guy right now is Blankenship, which doesn’t sound sexy but whatever it’s a fucking kicker.
Condensed Ranks
Taylor
Leonard
Hilton
Mack
Parris
DST
Pittman
Rivers
Burton
Blankenship
Gimme that Minshew! Even though Lamar won me the championship, I can’t separate myself from the belief that Minshew was the good luck charm. I’m hoping he falls to my hoard of garbage picks and wondering what I would pay if one of you beat me to him.
Leonard Fournette has a bad reputation, for whatever reason. Can’t pinpoint it without looking it up. At some point, I decided not to like him. I’m pretty sure in addition to having weak work ethic, he said some fuck-shit about Minshew in the offseason. So I won’t have any part of him, but I can recommend him because he gets a bigger workload than most RBs, and that’s what matters.
I’m on the fence about DJ Chark. I wonder if he’ll be able to sustain success now that defenses are keyed in on him. He will clearly have the most targets. Whatever, Kennedy’s keeping him anyway. Next year, we’ll have a different conversation. I think Shenault is going to be the #1 eventually. Dede Westbrook is worth a flyer. The defense is trash, so the offense will have a lot of volume, especially passing volume late in games. Westbrook could score as high as like a Tyler Boyd if the Jags get as much garbage time as the Bengals have in recent years.
Tyler Eifert and Chris Thompson are reuniting with Jay Gruden like kids from separate marriages. Both were stars last time he coached them, and I think they’re just young enough to have just one renaissance year that nobody expects. Both make great safety valves and will be used plenty with the Jags trailing in every game.
Hate this defense. Myles Jack gets his value up-ended by Joe Schobert, and Josh Allen won’t get enough sack opportunities if the other team is always leading.
Josh Lambo is quite good, but if the Jags are trailing by touchdowns, they won’t be kicking field goals.
I’m realizing after re-reading that I’m treating this defense like it will be historically bad. My motivation is that in two seasons, they’ve lost Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye, Jalen Ramsey, Telvin Smith, and now Yannick Ngakoue, and those are just the obvious names. They’ve added some serious talent in the draft in that time, but it’s going to be a sharp learning curve for these young dudes to become a professional defense. If they manage to jell this season, which is very possible, it will be after about ten games.
It’s a reminder to stay fluid and open to change throughout the season. Draft these offensive players with the expectation of solid volume in the first half of the season, but remember not to assume that volume will last if people start saying the defense is getting their shit together.
Look, Gardner Minshew is going to put this team on his back. He’s going to do keg-stands with the team on his back. The Jags could be look good as soon as mid-October. Their Weeks 3-6 are Miami, Cincy, Houston, and Detroit. Draft this offense like it’s the air-raid that made Gardner Minshew an NFL QB in the first place.
Condensed Ranks
Lenny
Chark
Shenault
Minshew
Dede
Eifert
Thompson
Mahomes should have been voted the best player in the league by his peers. It’s totally insane that he’s fourth, and I think it’s either jealousy on the part of the players or a conspiracy by the NFL itself to keep Mahomes’ edge. What he did in the playoffs last year was unbelievable, and he’s just going to keep doing it. The Chiefs should be the favorite to repeat, and there isn’t much defenses can do. They’ve seen this offense for three years, two with Mahomes, but they have trouble stopping it even when it’s Matt Moore.
It was interesting that Damien Williams was the lone potential fantasy option to opt out, not anything about him specifically but that only one guy with fantasy relevance stayed home. Now Clyde Edwards-Helaire, hand-picked by the Great One himself, is going to start as a rookie and have like 2,000 all-purpose yards in this offense, and we’re all going to sleep on him, even if he’s drafted 20th, it’ll be a steal for the #1 RB in all of fantasy.
Tyreek Hill is an asshole. No thanks. If I’m paying up for a Chief, it’s Kelce. Now, this is delicate because while I believe Kelce is the key to this offense, I also believe opposing defenses know this and if they can do something about it, then Kelce won’t be such a hot fantasy option. But there aren’t enough players who can cover him. What’s crazy is that no one in the division can even do it. Maybe Derwin has the skills, but he’s half a foot shorter and 50 pounds lighter. Kelce won’t win every snap, but he’ll win out.
The other WRs are Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, and potential up-and-comer Jody Fortson, who at 6’6” 230 has half a foot and 30 pounds on any other Chiefs receiver. For the first couple weeks, it’s worth it to grab ancillary pieces of the best offenses, just for the chance that something breaks in your favor. It’s not unreasonable to spend a 16th pick to see whether a team’s fifth receiver becomes a starter after a few early-season injuries, especially in a year where getting sick is like a three-week absence.
Butker is obviously elite.
The DST isn’t attractive but Tyrann Mathieu is, despite never consistently being near the top of the DB leaderboard.
Condensed Ranks
Mahomes
CEH
Kelce
Tyreek
Watkins
Butker
Hardman
Robinson
Darrel Williams
Mathieu
I wish Gruden had traded up for Kyler Murray like he wanted to. I want to watch this Raider team with a better QB than Derek Carr. He’s fine, but I’d like to see somebody special in Gruden’s offense just once. When was the last time Gruden had a special QB? Are Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, and Derek Carr the best we’ll do?
Like I said, it’s fine. Carr had a really nice 2019, and his weapons are much improved heading into 2020. Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller should be drafted as if they’ll repeat last year’s numbers. Meanwhile, you can drop Tyrell Williams and Zay Jones from your radar. Tyrell probably opens the season as a starter, but he’s so average, they’d have to win all their games for him to keep starting after the bye (Week 6). Ruggs will start from day one, and Bryan Edwards will take Tyrell’s job eventually (Week 7). I don’t expect a ton of 3-WR sets in neutral or better gamescript, though, so I’ve got no love for Renfrow in our league. Gruden brought in Jason Witten, and though Witten is pretty much toast, he can probably put in 30 snaps a game as the second TE.
(Update: Tyrell Williams says he has a torn labrum but that he plans to play through it.)
To be clear, Jacobs is the only sure thing in this offense. There is speculation that Gruden brought Witten in to use him a lot and equal speculation that actually having talented WRs will make it hard for Carr to feed Waller even 100 targets, much less 120. Still, we could subtract twenty receptions from Waller’s 2019, and he’d still clear 900 yards this season.
I don’t care about the defense or the IDPs. Cory Littleton and Lamarcus Joyner are on the outer edge of my radar. The Raiders are rumored to be in on Ngakoue, which would intrigue me.
And you know Gruden went out a found a huge fucking kicker. He’s not beefy like Janikowski was. Daniel Carlson is an Adonic 6’5” 215. That long leg is like a pendulum, capable of kicking the sun itself in a perfect arc across the sky.
Condensed Ranks
Gruden
Jacobs
Waller
Edwards
Ruggs
Carr
Tyrell
Carlson
Littleton
I am uninspired by this season of Hard Knocks. The whole first episode was COVID stuff, and even in the second episode they weren’t in pads yet because of the shift in the schedule. Obviously, they’re not playing preseason games, and so far they haven’t given us insight into anybody’s home life except the coaches. It’s bad television, and as a result, I’m intentionally taking the reverse of the Hard Knocks bump out on my draft ranking for these teams and their players.
Jared Goff has proven he’s a basic QB in a great system by now, right? I mean, the Super Bowl hinted at it and then this season came in and proved it? He’s good for fantasy but in a Matt Ryan kind of way. Last season, he led the league in pass attempts and finished 15th in fantasy points. With 22 TDs and 16 INTs, he might be… bad. 2020 would have been the fifth-year option on Goff’s rookie deal if the Rams hadn’t played hero ball by signing him to an extension as early as possible. Man, I’m pretty pissed at how much shit Jameis Winston gets when Jared Goff is out here shitting up a storm. What in the white privilege bullshit is this. He has a better line, better RBs, and a simpler system. He gets a mega-extension and Jameis gets bus fare to backup Taysom Hill? No fucking thanks to this timeline.
Tyrod will start the season for the Chargers, and the popular wisdom is that as long as the Chargers are winning, Tyrod will continue to start. The defense is elite, possibly the best. There is not a spot of weakness. Given health, their only potential downfall would be the offense stalling so often that the defense would play too much. I could see in that scenario, where they’re squeaking out 13-10 victories, I could see a switch. I think the dream scenario would be Tyrod getting them to 7-2 going into the bye and then handing the job over to Herbert—again, in the case they’re winning despite weak offense. If Tyrod is chipping in 250 yards passing and 50 yards rushing while unlocking the run game behind him, he’s their Super Bowl QB. My hesitation with Tyrod is arm strength. The defense gets to play closer to the line, which limits the run game. Herbert has a massive arm with beautiful touch on his throws… from a clean pocket. Per some source I can’t remember, Herbert becomes very, very bad when under pressure. He bails out of his proper form and his throws become erratic. But maybe the Chargers can coach him up on that. I’m not sure how much “two-for-flinching” they need to play in the locker room, but they’ve gotta do whatever they can.
The RBs in LA used to be the best in the game, each worthy of a first round pick. Now, you can get Ekeler in the—well, hopefully Corey keeps Ekeler so you can’t get him at all. In a surprise move, the Rams decided to dump big contracts and take on dead money going into this season, and Todd Gurley wasn’t even traded but straight-up cut. (They couldn’t find a trade in time to keep in 2020 salary from fully guaranteeing, or something like that.) Will they lean on veteran Malcolm Brown, sophomore Darrell Henderson, or rookie Cam Akers. Brown got the most time last year, Henderson was drafted to succeed Gurley, and Akers was drafted at higher cost one year after Henderson. My point is I don’t think Henderson is winning the job ever. The only reason Akers isn’t winning the job outright is because of how complex the offense is. He’ll get plenty of touches, but he won’t be able to play on many passing downs because they won’t expect him to know all the nuance (blitz pickups and whatnot) until later in the year. Young people who aren’t Captain Wonderbread like Goff and Kupp have a tough time cracking into the rotation in McVay’s offense for some reason…
(Update: Henderson has a pulled hammy and will likely miss at least Week 1. Cam Akers is the back to own.)
I see all of these WRs having inefficient seasons, but the Rams showed last season that volume can make up for inefficiency, so I’m not worried about Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, or even Mike Williams suffering from unspectacular QB play. I wonder whether the Rams’ fourth receiver will be WR Josh Reynolds or TE Gerald Everett (assuming Higbee starts at TE). I imagine they’ll end the season pretty even in snaps, which would presume to mean more targets for Reynolds. In terms of draft capital, the WR seems like the smarter play, but Everett is versatile and has made plays all over the formation for the Rams. He is fast enough to beat an outside corner on a fly route (which he’s done in a game against KC). The Chargers’ third WR, whoever it is, would only be relevant if one of the top two went down.
(Update, 8/24: Mike Williams has a shoulder injury and is questionable for Week 1.)
Hunter Henry is worth the high-ish pick, even if he comes with some injury risk. When he plays, he puts up double digits about half the time, with a higher floor than most. For what it’s worth, once upon a time, Charles Clay was a thing, and his QB was Tyrod Taylor. I take it to mean Tyrod can get it to the TE and turn it into fantasy points for one of us. Why not you?
Like I said, the Chargers defense is elite, with a chance to be historic. Bosa, Ingram, Derwin, and rookie Kenneth Murray are all interesting IDP options.
The Rams defense should be okay, maybe good by mid-year. They have Aaron Donald and a couple nice safeties in JJJ (John Johnson III, aka John Johnson Johnior) and Taylor Rapp. I am hesitant to anoint any of their edge rushers or LBs. Littleton and Fowler were nice last year, but they’ve left town. The Rams’ replacements for them are not worthy of our draft picks.
The Rams are trying out three kickers, meaning we will draft none.
The Chargers bring back Badgley, who was decent last year. This is a curious one. If we expect the offense to be low-volume, we should fade the kicker. But if the defense is elite, then the offense should have favorable field position, so even if drives stall, they are more often to end in field goal range and they will probably need field goals to win. So Badgley is borderline. He’s in the conversation to be that final K off the board.
Condensed Ranks
Ekeler
Woods
Allen
Akers
Kupp
Henry
Derwin
Donald
Mike Williams
Chargers DST
Goff
Bosa
Reynolds
Gerald Everett
JJJ
Melvin Ingram
Higbee
Kenneth Murray
Van Jefferson
It’s a given that Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the season. The Fitzmagic was real again last year. The Dolphins were historically bad, and Fitzmagic necromanced them into being just fifth worst in 2019. It sucks they drafted Tua, not because he will cut Fitzpatrick’s time short but because Tua’s not actually good. I don’t have clear or concise reasoning to back this up. Basically I have read and heard some things that give me all the wrong vibes. His dad forcing him to be left-handed as a child is one. His dad insisting that God made Tua good at football is another. I mean, technically it’s as true as any reason for anything; I’m just worried that when Tua doesn’t play well then that will also be a sign from God, and that’s why his career will tank. Allegedly one of Alabama’s offensive coaches said they tried to expand the offense beyond RPO but that Tua wasn’t able to pick it up so they just kept the playbook simple. They could just be shitty teachers, but it’s a red flag until he proves he can learn Miami’s offense. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t teach it to him, it’s not happening.
(Dudes, can you believe we didn’t get to see FitzMagic in the Arians offense? Or at least have him as a mentor for Jameis? Fate is cruel.)
But okay, actually talking about Miami, let’s do it. FitzMagic bestows great numbers on his top two WRs. He loves to air it out and he hits more often than he misses. DeVante Parker was amazing last year, and Preston Williams would have been if his season hadn’t been cut short. There is hype around Mike Gesicki, but we Bucs fans know Fitzpatrick doesn’t really feature the TE. Gesicki will probably do about what he did last year, which was good enough to be a starter in our league. What’s nice about Miami’s offense is it’s cheap; what’s not nice is the O-line is not good, at least not right now. If the rookies hit, this will be an average line by midseason. For that reason, I’m fading the RBs in the draft. Jordan Howard and Matt Breida are massive upgrades to Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird. But improving a miserable backfield is not the same as having a good backfield. I believe Howard can be as good in Miami as Sony Michel was last year in New England, understanding everything that implies. Breida will be drafted, or at least should since he could steal the starting job. If they manufacture touches for Breida in space, he’s going to rack up yards. I just don’t see how he scores more than three TDs.
The defense has improved and might even be streamable this season. The lone IDP worth a look is Jerome Baker. He racked up tackles last year and has the athleticism is developing the skills to do much, much more.
Condensed Ranks
Parker
Howard
Preston
Breida
Gesicki
Baker
FitzMagic
Kirk Cousins kinda sucks, right? Like he has a punchable face, I mean. Kind of a Roger Ramjet look to him. I think defenses want to beat him up, and it’s why the Vikings need to use playaction to protect him.
The Vikings loss of Kevin Stefanski is going to water down their offense, if I had to guess. Especially when you factor the Diggs trade, it’s going to lead to more commitment to the run to setup playaction as opposed to just using playaction because its effective. Zimmer is constantly on his offensive coordinator to run the ball more. Mike Zimmer, possibly an all-time great defensive coach, hates when his team plays defense. He just wants the offense to run the clock out with a 3-0 lead every game.
Dalvin Cook is the starter, but with the contract issue, you can’t blame the front office if they talk to Zim about getting a better look at Alexander Mattison. We saw Mattison flash last year. We know he can do everything a starting RB needs to do. We just don’t know how consistently. I’m not fading Dalvin Cook, but that’s only because I can’t afford him. If he falls to my first pick, I’m snapping him right up. He’d never make it past Brian at 9, but my guess is that he won’t make it past Kennedy 6-7 stack, and if I’m telling you exactly where I’d draft him, it would probably be 3rd overall since I don’t like Zeke. I understand that’s crazy, which is why I kept open the chance he might make it all the way to Brian at 9 (rooting for you, buddy). Mattison has to be owned. He might have value behind Cook. My thinking is RBs will see 30-40 combined opportunities per game, especially if the defense is rocking.
Will the defense be rocking, though? The pass defense for sure. Linval Joseph left for LA, and his replacement, Michael Pierce opted out, leaving a 330-pound hole where the keystone of the Vikings run defense used to be. The next heaviest dude on the team is Jaleel Johnson at 315. I’m not saying you need to be huge to stuff the run. I’m saying you don’t need to be super-talented to be good at run-stuffing if you’re huge. The Patriots prove this year after year, getting basically the cheapest of the outlier heaviest and strongest nose tackles year after year and finishing top-10 in defensive rushing DVOA. Other teams have caught on, and all those dudes are gobbled up. SO Minnesota has to build lead to be most effective on defense (which is technically true for all defenses but ignore that), but they don’t have the gameplan to build a lead; they have a gameplan to maintain one. It’ll be interesting to see how that affects them early in the year.
Adam Thielen is a mystery to me. As I write this, he is turning 30 years old. He broke out in 2016, but people didn’t really buy it, so he was cheap as dirt in 2017 (Round 11 in our league) and ended up scoring a bunch of points, then we bought in 2018 and he rewarded us with literally one million points. Last year, he was up and down. He had some dud games, then he got hurt and missed five games, then he came back but barely did shit in the regular season, but then he had 7 catches for 129 yards against New Orleans in the playoffs, followed by a not-awful 5 catches for 50 yards against San Fran (i.e., the league’s best defense). SO I guess the cheat code is when you see Cooper Kupp go off the board, you know it’s a good time to take Thielen. There’s an argument to be made that without competition for targets, Thielen will have the most opportunity he’s ever seen, potentially getting up in the 175-target range, giving him the opportunity to catch 120+ balls and probably break his personal record of 1,373 yards. If you buy it, then you can draft him as high as we’ve ever drafted him, which is exactly 20th overall the last two drafts (Brian, then Shelby). That’s Spencer’s second-round pick, which means Spencer will either draft Kittle, Kupp, or Thielen, and we’ll have to have a serious conversation.
With Gary Kubiak taking over as OC, I’m thinking only one WR has consistent production, with two TEs having potential to be fantasy starters. Rudolph’s targets took a serious hit between ’18 and ’19, nearly cut in half, but he scored six touchdowns, which made him a goo streaming option for about six weeks of the season. He will get more love this year. He has to. He and Irv Smith will be on the field more often than any of the WRs behind Thielen. Maybe Kubiak has evolved and will run a more modern offense, but I doubt it. Zimmer wants to run the ball every play, which is why he hired Kubiak. So Irv Smith, who had just as many targets as Rudolph last year, should see increased usage as well.
The DST is draftable, if you’re okay opening the season against Green Bay. At worst, they’re an easy stream against average and bad teams. IDPs Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, and Danielle Hunter have made all of us happy owners.
Dan Bailey in the dome? Yup.
Condensed Ranks
Cook
Thielen
Irv
Mattison
Jefferson
Cousins
Hunter
Smith
DST
Bailey
Kendricks
Bisi
It’s not quite a new era yet. There’s definitely been a shift. The door is closing on this era, but it’s not over until Bill leaves. I mean, technically it’s over if they miss the playoffs in this division. The Bills are a better team, but still, you expect excellence from Belichick’s Pats, which have always been Brady’s Pats. It’s a moment the rest of us has been looking forward to, the chicken-egg paradox we can actually unravel.
Cam Newton, baby. We all thought it was gonna be Jameis, but it’s Cam Newton. I’d be happy if I were a Pats fan. Sure he alienated himself by dressing like the new Dennis Rodman, and he racked up injuries and kept playing reckless anyway and basically lost his team’s only chance at a Super Bowl, and he probably doesn’t have the wheels anymore, and he was never accurate ever, but hey, he’s Cam Newton! Big star! Number one!
The consensus is Belichick and McDaniels will put their heads together and design an earth-shattering offense that maximizes the talents of everyone involved, whether it’s Newton, Hoyer, Stidham, or the recent rumor that they’ll use a rotation (peak preseason!). They will revert to the game-manager tactics that built Tom Brady’s legacy early on, or they will run the wildcat, or they will install a different playbook every week and run an indecipherable permutation of twelve plays for each team they face. They will redefine football, and at the end of the season, they’ll be one big orgy of pigskin and light, and we’ll all revel in it, we’ll realize that the only way to enjoy the National Football League is to be a Patriot and proud, and we’ll all say Thank You Bill, Thank You for Showing Us the Way, as he ascends into the clouds and disappears forever.
ORRRR they’ll go 8-8 and appear to be just an average team of average players with good enough coaches to keep the wheels from falling off.
It would be really sexy if Bill tanked, though I doubt there’s a transcendent QB worth it. Trevor Lawrence is supposed to be a god or whatever, but to me he just looks like a regular ol’ QB. It would have been really cool if he tanked for Chase Young. I bet Bill’s bummed as shit that he doesn’t get to coach any of these sexy-ass pass-rushers any more. Trey Flowers was fine, Chase Winovich is probably fine, but I’m talking about Chandler Jones, a guy you love to draw shit up for because no one can stop him three times in a row. Or tank for Chase Young and convert him to QB, have him play both ways. That’ll get old Bill’s dick hard one more time.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are officially off the rails.
The truth is I never know what to do when it comes to drafting Patriots. I used to take Gronk in the top 15 or grab Brady in the middle rounds, but those guys don’t play there anymore because they hate Bill Belichick and want to stick it to him together. Edelman’s gotta be disappointed. He has no leverage to get out, but I guess he’s down to stick around. Yo, how wild is it that like as many Pats opted out as the rest of the league combined? The dudes were like, no, I know how Bill works. He’s going to cheat on the COVID rules, and we’re all gonna get it. Cue Bill thinking, if we develop herd immunity in the beginning of camp and keep it quiet, we’ll be the only healthy team come November, just in time to make that critical late-season push. I could also see Belichick just using fake tests and fake doctors telling everyone the results are negative, just middle fingers in every direction as he’s the only coach with his full lineup every week, taking it to 16-0 and a Super Bowl and a sweet, sweet retirement.
I secretly think Belichick is a great person, an awkward little introvert who just wants to be liked, wants to make his dad proud, wants to win the big game every week, every year. I can’t imagine he knows what to do with himself after football, or else he’d already have retired. But… he’s always wanted a dual-threat QB to play with, and he’s long wanted to prove to the world that Tom Brady is just some dude and it’s Old Bill who’s winning these games, Dad, you’ll see!
Man, fuck this team. These players are all either washed or they’re nobodies. I don’t even want the kicker or the defense. People think the defense is a good Week 1 option at home against Miami, but I think FitzMagic’s gonna stick it to them.
Condensed Ranks
James White
Edelman
Damien Harris
Cam
Michel(Q)
DST
Asiasi
Drew Brees stepped in some shit earlier this summer, didn’t he? I’m of the opinion he is rich enough and white enough to be completely separated from discomfort of any kind. So when he showed his ignorance of a long-term issue, one that basically exiled one of his co-workers and fellow QBs, and then he didn’t even apologize properly, it said to me, this dude is not in this fight. I think his teammates changed their opinions of him, and I don’t think there’s any way back. It’s going to be a bad season, and it’s not going to be easy for commentators and analysts to explain. Even if that’s all narrative hogwash, the fact is they had the most efficient season of any team ever last year, and it is—I’ll say it—impossible for them to repeat it or improve upon it. They had eight turnovers all year. The previous low was 10, set by the 2010 Pats and tied by the 2011 49ers. Michael Thomas caught like 88% of his passes or some shit. And they still didn’t even make the conference championship. If Brees comes out committing turnovers, or he gets pissed at the guys who do, it’s gonna get ugly. There used to be love there, and I think there’s maybe respect or camaraderie, but the love is gone.
I’m not drafting any Saints. I took a look at TreQuan Smith as a cheap flyer, but honestly until Jameis Winston is the starter, I’m not down with this team. I’m not even interested in writing about them. Drew Brees is down with white supremacy, and until that’s reckoned with, I’ll have nothing to do with Drew Brees. #freejameis
(I don’t blame you if you draft Wil Lutz. Consistent kickers are hard to come by, and he plays at least nine games in a dome every year.)
Condensed Ranks
Kamara
Thomas
Sanders
Cook
Brees
Lutz
Latavius
DST
Jordan
Demario Davis
Jameis
TreQuan
Danny Dimes is probably just as good as Joe Burrow. He’s got the deep ball rocking and he does that whiteboy shuffle for solid yards every week. He has an underrated receiving corps, and elite RB, and an offensive coordinator who knows how to develop young talent. He’s not to be counted on as full-time starter in fantasy, but he’s worth owning for bye week and potential injury. He’s got some juice, and he’s already put together some huge games. He had four games with at least four TDs. Are you kidding me?! Danny Dimes!
Saquads! No explanation required!
More on that underrated receiving corps: no one can decide how to price these guys. Golden Tate has the surest hands, but at 32 he’s easily the least explosive. Darius Slayton is easily the most explosive, and with just two drops, he has pretty sure hands as well. He’s also the tallest, and he was the most productive in 2019. The there’s Sterling Shepard, who was so good a couple years ago that the Giants thought he would just take over for OBJ and life would proceed as usual. He’s since solidified as a second fiddle. So I have Slayton pretty high up. I assume he is the #1 WR and will see about ten targets per game, which combined with his yards per target in 2019 would earn him 88 yards per game, with plenty of those yards coming on straight BOMBS from the Dime-Man Dimerino Mr. Dimes, resulting in at least a handful of touchdowns. Then I have Golden Tate soaking up slot opportunities, getting at least the amount of love Randall Cobb got in Dallas, with no Gallup-type to harsh his mellow, resulting in a solid 100 targets for a modest 800 yards and a few scores. That leaves Shepard to keep scraping together whatever Evan Engram and Saquon leave for him, maybe another 800-yard campaign like he had in 2018. Dimes will throw for 4K, so it’s easy to imagine 1,200 for Slayton, 800 for Tate and Shep, 600 for Engram, 600 for Barkley, and factor in one or two of them missing time… it works out to Danny Dimes dropping 4,200 yards worth of dimes and everybody going home happy.
I won’t say a lot about Engram other than he’s the fastest TE in the league and tat counts for something.
This DST should be below average. Blake Martinez was a consistent floor-play in Green Bay, so if he has ten tackles in Week 1, one of us should jump all over him. I like Jabrill Peppers as a player but not so much as a fantasy player. The potential stud is rookie Xavier McKinney, who is supposed to be a discount Jamal Adams as far as I know. He’s undraftable as we don’t even know if he’ll start Week 1.
I normally don’t even think about the Giants’ kicker, but this year Graham Gano is the Giants’ kicker. FSU grad, huge leg. I could see myself taking him with the last pick.
Condensed Ranks
Saquon
Slayton
Engram
Golden
Shepard
Dimes
Martinez
Gano
Adam Gase is the original Matt Nagy. He runs a silly offense that doesn’t adapt to the players on the field. The players are expected to adapt to the system, which frankly just wastes time and talent. He finishes 7-9 or 9-7 every year, but somehow his team is literally the worst for an entire month of each season. Last year, the issue was Darnold’s bout of mono, leading to a just insane Jenga game of quarterbacks—I believe it was Trevor Siemian, Luke Falk, and… maybe it was just the two, but it felt like three crazy bad QBs each lost a game. Just checked. It was pretty much all Luke Falk, who was on the practice squad until Darnold got mono, and then suddenly he was second-string, but it was all good since Trevor Siemian only had to make it to the bye week. Oh shit, Siemian breaks his leg literally ten plays into the game, and now Falk has to play three full games. It was like that time Brady got suspended for cheating, and Belichick won one game with Jimmy and another with Brissett, only in this case it was Adam Gase and a 7th round QBs, so they gained like twelve yards and lost by an average of a hundred points per game. It was crazy. And yet, by the end of the year: 7-9.
If you get stuck with one of these Jets, you have to hope that they can build on Sam Darnold’s 7-6 record from last year. They improved the O-line, and they only lost Robby Anderson. The replaced him with Breshad Perriman, which is definitely a downgrade, but hopefully that helps Jamison Crowder reach his potential as a top-20 WR. There was some buzz for rookie Denzel Mims to start, but those plans are on hold. Because of injuries to multiple WRs, including Mims, the Jets third WR is… Chris Hogan. Yeah, things are bad.
The guy to own is obviously Lev Bell. While he disappointed at his first-round price tag, there is a chance for one of us to get a good value out of him this year. Note: if you draft Lev Bell as a top-10 RB, expecting value, there is a good chance you will be disappointed. I am 100% sure I’m passing on him at 12 overall, and I am 100% sure I would draft him at 36th overall. Doing dumb math for no reason, that means his sweet spot is 24th overall. I think if you take Lev Bell anywhere in the third round, you’ll feel pretty good about it.
There’s a lot of Chris Herndon buzz, for what it’s worth. There are 16 TEs better than him, and we don’t tend to draft more than 16 TEs as a group.
Super nope to these DSTs and kickers. CJ Mosley might’ve been cool, but he opted out.
Condensed Ranks
Bell
Crowder
Herndon
Darnold
Spencer and I were wondering earlier this year what the deal was with Carson Wentz. We were under the impression that he had never really done anything that special, that he was like a glorified Ryan Tannehill on a better team. I looked into it and found out that between Donovan McNabb (2008) and Carson Wentz (2016), not one Eagles QB played a full season. Even McNabb, between 2000 and 2009, only completed four full seasons. I guess my point is that being an Eagles fan sucks. But I understand the gushing over Wentz now. I’m not on board the Wentz Wagon, but I get why people do it.
Wentz is great in fantasy, but he’s not worth what Evan has been paying. He finishes pretty high in the rankings, but he doesn’t significantly outscore the average QB in terms of point per game. He has maybe a three-point advantage, which doesn’t make up for what you give up passing on a starting RB or WR in the fourth round. The only way paying up for a QB is worth it is when that QB significantly outscores not only the average QB but the average QB1 (i.e., the average score among the top 12 QBs). Late-round QB survives as a strategy because the math holds up year over year. I’m not singling Evan out. Many of us have done this. I did it last year with Lamar, only I got lucky—insanely lucky: Lamar outscored the second best QB by over 100 points and the average QB1 by almost 200 and the average QB by over 250.
Miles Sanders had more receiving yards than any Eagles WR last year. In fact, Wentz became the first player in the history of the league to pass for over 4,000 yards and have zero WRs above 500 yards. For once, it appears that Philly will have a feature back instead of a committee, but if that’s all smoke, then the second head of the committee is Boston Scott, who short and stout but has great hands like Sanders.
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 1,500 yards, 900 and 600 respectively. Goedert wasn’t a backup or a handcuff. He was a starting TE and scored like it (10th in our league). I don’t see it happening again, but the Pats did it with Gronk and Hernandez, so it should be doable. It’s not like the Eagles added a WR that commands a bunch of targets. They got a bunch of rookies who will be happy to get playing time.
The WR room is a toss-up. DeSean Jackson is probably the best option early in the year, but rookie Jalen Reagor could shine. Again, Hollywood Brown had 30 fantasy points in his first ever NFL game. Keep that stat in your heart forever. Don’t count rookies out just because there’s a tendency toward early irrelevance. Take chances on exciting prospects. But also, be cool. Hollywood was like a 12th or 13th Round pick, and nobody was starting him Week 1. I’m just saying Reagor has that talent and potentially that opportunity. What do we do with Alshon Jeffery? Is he toast? If so, how burnt? Can we salvage anything there? When these big body WRs start to break down, it gets ugly. The start playing one of every three games or they have two good weeks and then their out for five weeks. It’s not fun, right? Like, why would I sign up to experience that second-hand?
The defense is improving but probably not enough to be anything but a stream against bad offenses. The kicker is as good as the offense, so you want some Jake Elliot late in the draft.
Condensed Ranks
Sanders
Ertz
Wentz
Reagor
Goedert
DeSean
Jeffery(Q)
Boston Scott
DST (Week 1 @ WSH)
Elliot
Mike Tomlin is maybe the best coach in the NFL. People give Belichick due credit, but they sleep on Tomlin, who hasn’t won the championships but has coached in a way that’s much more… human, I’ll say. I would like to see Tomlin and Belichick sit down and argue about coaching for two hours, is what I’m saying. I would also like to see what would have happened if Tom Brady was a Steeler and Big Ben was a Patriot. How would Belichick have treated Lev Bell? Seeing Antonio Brown get a full season in New England was going to be interesting. Etcetera.
What I like about Tomlin, what I value in an NFL coach, is consistent defensive excellence. The lowest they’ve ever ranked in DVOA is 18th. In 2011, they were 28th in takeaways yet finished 1st in points AND yards allowed. Last season, despite having nearly the worst offense in the league (and realistically it was the worst in the second half of the season), they finished 5th in points and yards allowed. I need you to recognize how difficult it is to play defense when your offense is terrible, when you never have a lead. Granted, they were probably 5th in yards allowed because the opponent’s starting field position was so good, but being fifth in points is all the more impressive then. Love it. Love this defense.
The offense is sketchy. Big Ben is back, but the offensive line has been declining recently. They haven’t drafted a lineman ahead of the third round since 2012. They have been excellent, but they have lost some key pieces without bringing in convincing replacements. The starting LG and RT are suspect. These aren’t young guys either. If they struggle early, I’m not willing to believe they will get it figured out. We are used to the Steelers being in the conversation for top-5 OL. This year, it’ll be more like top-10, which potential to slip toward league-average. It most likely doesn’t matter.
Because it’s such a well-coached team, we can expect fantasy points as long as Big Ben stays in the game. I’m fading James Conner because of durability concerns, but I think when he plays he’ll play well. Benny Snell is the backup for between the tackles carries and short-distance work, but rookie Anthony McFarland would be a more electric option if Conner missed time.
Juju and Diontae Johnson are the starters, and people close to the team are suggesting they are equally talented. It’s okay not to believe that, but you should at least be open to the idea since Johnson is pretty cheap for a starter in a quality offense that likes to throw deep. Because of this offense’s reputation, there’s reason to pay up (relatively) for James Washington, who has less of an all-around game but has already burnt many dudes for huge chunks of yardage and long TDs. I imagine Juju and Diontae will eclipse 1,000 yards, with Washington not far behind.
It makes you wonder how much will be left for Eric Ebron, and I think the answer is plenty. Ebron is a red zone threat if nothing else. If he scores 8 TDs on the year, he’s a starter for half our teams, regardless of yardage, and again, I think he will get plenty. He’s still just 27 and among the most dynamic TEs in the game, ever. I’m insanely high on him. I think Vance McDonald is in the past.
The wrench in this fine machine is Ben Roethlisberger’s arm. He had Tommy John surgery, which is not common among QBs. (For reference, this surgery basically takes tendons from the non-throwing elbow and uses them to replace torn tendons in the throwing elbow; tendons might be the wrong word, but it doesn’t matter for context.) Beat writers have said Big Ben’s throwing style looks more like Phillip Rivers’ in camp, which makes me real, real sad. Big Ben is probably a bad person, though, so I guess he deserves it.
The defense is elite, but I would bet against them being THE best because I don’t like their corners enough. Still, when everything else is working, a corner’s mistakes are easily covered up.
Chris Boswell is kind of like Mason Crosby. He’s pretty good, but the offense’s greatness makes him great for fantasy. If the offense struggles, Boswell is average in fantasy.
Condensed Ranks
Juju
Conner
Diontae
Ebron
DST
Ben
Watt
Washington
Snell
Heyward
McFarland
Boswell
Bush
We kind of know what we’re getting here in terms of who we’re willing to spend big money on. Kittle is the only sure thing. Even Jimmy is surely the starter but not surely getting the yards and TDs needed to be above average in fantasy. Everyone else is shackled by doubt of what it even means to start in this offense. I’ll take some guesses.
When it comes to RBs, these coaches have walked the walk with the whole “hot hand” plan. They started Tevin Coleman last season, but Raheem Mostert was hot. Maybe Jerick McKinnon will be hot this year. It’s a guessing game. The smart money says to draft the cheapest one (McKinnon) and hope for a miracle. Coleman and Mostert are both being drafted like low-level starters, which means at least one is overpriced. In the case of a committee, they’re both overpriced. But McKinnon is, at worst, reasonably priced: nothing for nothing.
It’s a bummer Deebo is hurt. He was lighting it up. He won’t be out for long. Week 1 is right around the end of his supposed time frame, and he’s on schedule. The team is talking like Deebo could play Week 1, but I suspect that’s strategic reporting intended to force their opposition to waste time watching Deebo tape. It’s a developing story. The “starters” in his stead appear to be rookie Brandon Aiyuk and fourth-year Kendrick Bourne. They could have had Jeudy or Lamb and decided it was fine to draft gamebreaking DT Javon Kinlaw and then snag Aiyuk later in the first round. I’m… I’m not confident this isn’t hubris on their part. But, to be fair, they don’t want WRs who expect to be the focal point of the offense. They want guys to buy in on spreading the ball to the open receivers. It’s a lot like the triangle offense in basketball. (Can we tell I recently watched the Jordan doc?) Ball movement creates open shots, and open shots are more efficient than contested ones. It’s that simple, and the 49ers have proven it works. For this reason, I have Aiyuk and Deebo pretty close in ranking. Kendrick Bourne would be pretty distant from them, though he’d be slightly higher than any other 49ers WR, of which there are so fucking many, it’s crazy. The list: Aiyuk, Deebo, Bourne, Trent Taylor, Dante Pettis, Tavon Austin, JJ Nelson, Jaron Brown, Jordan Matthews, and rookie Jauan Jennings. Those are just the ten with a solid chance to make the team. There are technically three more, but two are hurt and one is more of a special teamer. This shit is unprecedented. It shows this organization is, well, organized, if they can dedicate attention in a curtailed preseason to evaluating like seven dudes for their fifth and sixth WR roles. There’s now way they can keep all these guys! What I’m saying is don’t draft anyone behind Bourne, but also don’t sleep on any player’s chance to contribute to this offense.
(Update: on Aug 22, Aiyuk hurt his hamstring, which will realistically cause him to miss a month of action. He could rush back, but with hamstrings, that usually leads to an extra month of inactivity.)
Even Jordan Reed should have your attention, maybe not in the draft but definitely in the early part of the season. Again, anyone on the field could make a huge play. The offense is just that dynamic. And again, the only guy we know for sure will do it on a weekly basis in George Kittle. Play this team smart.
The defense is elite. Go get ‘em.
And get you some Robbie Gould. Who doesn’t love this guy? He’s the only kicker in the league to hold out of training camp and demand a new deal or a trade. I believe he got neither, but the BALLS, man. How do you even kick with balls that big?
Condensed Ranks
Kittle
Coleman
Mostert
Deebo(Q)
Aiyuk(Q)
DST
Warner
Bosa(Q)
Jimmy
McKinnon
Gould
Bourne
#LetRussCook is exactly what this team needs. The idea is to stop leaning so hard on the run and other conservative play calls in the first three quarters, which has had the tendency of forcing Russ into a lot of passing and craziness in the final quarter. The locals can’t stand it, but they also love it. The mythology is that if Russ gets to operate freely earlier in the game, then they can do all that running when they’re leading late. But there’s reason to believe that the defense is just not that good, so running the clock shortens games and makes it more realistic to have close scores late, which is a situation the Seahawks feel like they have control over. So it’s a balance. As someone who’s seen Jameis cook his way to interceptions on the first play of twenty games, I can see how playing conservative most of the game would give a team an advantage. It challenges the Andy Reid philosophy of building a big lead going into the half and then protecting that lead in the second half.
For once, we have clarity in this backfield. It’s all Chris Carson. Carlos Hyde will play and potentially have a couple double-digit fantasy games, but he’s not siphoning any of Carson’s work. Chris Carson isn’t the type of back you conserve. He’s going to get injured one way or another, so you just fucking use him until he does. You can’t stop fate. You can however own Carlos Hyde even if he feels like dead weight for ten weeks. And around that ten-week mark, you can add Deejay Dallas, who is an all-around talent who just needs time to learn the offense and get his reps.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are very close in ADP. If you want to buy into that, have fun, but DK Metcalf, despite his early success, is a limited talent. He has that body and the speed and the hands, but he sorely lacks technique. The addition of Phillip Dorsett means he’ll be getting some of the vertical routes that had been pretty much exclusively been DK’s, capping that upside we saw in 2019. I don’t buy Dorsett as a standalone value, especially once Josh Gordon gets reinstated, but I do expect DK will regress a little while Lockett stays studly. I expect Lockett to go as high as the late second round. If he falls to 36, I’m all over him. I would prefer to go RB there, but Lockett is money.
Will Dissly is back, but Greg Olsen is in town now. I figure a split where neither will be worth our time. Olsen gets veteran deference, meaning I do have him on my draft board, but it’s because I expect one of you to take him, pushing a higher upside player down the board to me. Olsen will have good weeks, possibly even a respectable floor, but he’s slow enough that a team can eliminate him from the game if they want to. Still, if we compare him to Jason Witten, even Witten has 100 points last year, good enough to finish 13th among TEs. TE is one position where it’s okay to stay safe. Ideally, you’re drafting Olsen to start while you see what happens with a more volatile prospect like a Noah Fant or someone. What you don’t do is pair 12th Round Greg Olsen with 16th Round Will Dissly, assuming either way you have a starter. That’s capping your upside.
This gets me into this territory of whether we should assume health or consider the risk. It’s an argument that affects RB handcuffs, as well. The ruling theory is that drafting your own handcuffs (i.e., players who are one injury away from starting full-time) because the scenario where that helps you is what, when the starter gets hurt? It feels safe, but it’s technically the same amount of upside as having any handcuff, without the added benefit of potentially having two starters. If you own Olsen and Dissly, you only own one startable TE, and in a worst-case scenario, you don’t know which one it is. Similarly, if you own Carson and Hyde, you only own one starter. You know which one it is, but the maximum number of starters between them is always just one (except in the rare scenario one gets traded and starts, which has actually happened to Hyde before). What you’d rather do, always, if you’re rostering backup players at all, is diversify and maximize upside. If you ain’t first, you’re last. Playing it safe is a path straight to the middle, which I understand improves your playoff hopes, but I’m offering the theory that it often reduces your championship hopes. It’s an unwinnable argument. You have to make the playoffs to make the championship, and there’s so much luck baked into each matchup that most playoff teams have a relatively equal chance of winning it all (unless one of them trades all his future picks for players, but who would even do that?).
The DST acquired Jamal Adams, who has been a top fantasy DB for years, more often the top DB. Seattle’s Cover-3 should allow Adams to play about ten yards off the line, but there’s doubt as to whether they will use him for exotic blitzes the way the Jets did. I mean, I don’t know why you acquire Adams if you don’t plan to use him like the Joker he is, but I’m just saying there’s speculation he might not rack up sacks like he has in previous seasons, which would cap his upside. He’s still a top DB, just less likely the top DB.
Why does talking about Seattle have me hedging so hard? Something in the water here, I guess.
Finally, you want Bobby Wagner, and you want him first or second among IDPs (along with Darius Leonard). I don’t know for sure that we should be drafting IDPs in the fifth round, but the best of them are as good as top-30 WRs, which is what we tend to be drafting in the 5th Round anyway, only in this case, the hit-rate is basically flawless. The WRs drafted closest to the top LB (Kuechly) last season were Jarvis Landry and Christian Kirk, both of whom ended the year with fewer points and were less likely even be in a starting lineup. I can’t make an airtight case without doing more research, so you’re just going to have to believe me if you want to raise your ceiling.
As long as I’ve lived here, we as a city have had zero collective faith in our kickers.
Condensed Ranks
Carson
Lockett
Russ
Wagner
Adams
DK
Olsen
Hyde
DST
Dallas
Dorsett
I’m glad we got the Tompa thing out of the way early. I hope everyone is sick of it. But okay, okay let’s enjoy it. Let’s be grateful anyone good would even play for us, even though it’s because we offered him ten more million dollars and probably won’t be able to afford dirt next year, but living in the moment and drinking our 2000 mL of distilled water every day, let’s be mindful and express gratitude and hope for the best.
A recent report quoted Gronk saying that Brady’s arm was probably stronger now than it was when Gronk entered the league in 2010. Wow. Just let it sink in that Rob Gronkowski feels like he has to say stuff like this to get attention. I’m ignoring absolutely everything this team has to say about itself. We all know they think they’re contenders now, despite, you know, having won zero games with this QB and having almost zero playoff experience among dudes that have been here.
I want Jameis baaaack.
But I believe we’re going to the playoffs, which is what matters. We’re not a deep team, so I have no idea how we’ll compete in the playoffs, but we have enough time to become deep by then. Our coaching staff is excellent. They can build a deep roster over the course of a season.
Ronald Jones is alleged to be like 225 pounds. Like, dude is thicc. He enters the year as the starter, but does he have the pass-pro chops to stay the starter? Why did we sign Shady McCoy if not to have a proven James-White-like RB back there. McCoy doesn’t have any connection to our offensive system. Also, Ogunbowale is alleged to have that James White role on lock. So what the hell is going on? It frustrates me since this is the only piece of the team I have a realistic chance at owning, unless I want to take a shot on an IDP after Lavonte and Devin White are gone. Uuuughghggh.
Brian is keeping Godwin, which leaves Evans as the lone Buc likely to be taken in the top 15 picks of our draft. I am afraid, deeply afraid, of Evans reaching me at 12. I pretty much have to take the best RB available to have any shot at winning, but I would never pass up on Evans at that spot in a normal year. UGHUGUHGHGH.
A lot could happen with our third receiver spot. Justin Watson, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson are the main guys competing. Watson was the favorite entering camp. He’s got the best size and overall athleticism. Miller has won the hearts of the beat writers, who are just losing their fucking minds over how many catches he’s making against air. Watson hasn’t been talked about at all. Tyler Johnson was the most productive in college, but he entered training camp with an injury (nothing major), so he’s starting behind the eight ball. We won’t have clarity in time for the draft.
The clarity is further clouded by Gronk and OJ’s ability to line up all over the formation. It’s all good for Brady, but it makes it hard to know where the value is for fantasy. Beat writers are calling OJ the starter, but they’re not being straightforward about what Gronk is. We know he’s not wearing the brace, and we know he got up to his usual football weight in like April. At 31, we can reasonably assume he’s lost significant burst since his heyday, but can he still block like he used to, or is he more of a red zone receiving, alley-oop-type threat? Is he any better than Jimmy Graham was a couple years ago? If so, cool. Just like I mentioned with Ebron, if you’re scoring a TD every other week, you’re startable. The question is whether the price tag makes sense. Because we don’t know how he looks on the field, we could make wild leaps about what kind of impact he’ll have. In my mind, he could have anywhere between 350 and 900 yards, with between three and 15 TDs, and I’m serious. He will be drafted; the question is how much shit we give Cameron when he drafts him in the fifth round. Are we forgetting about Cameron Brate? I feel like we have to. His presence probably cuts into the upside of the other guys, but you can’t seriously draft any team’s third TE.
The DST is very draftable, and in this league that means they’re going in like the ninth round. We were the best rushing defense last season, and we return all of our starters. Each of our D-linemen is 300+ pounds, with Vea at 330 in the NT position. Lavonte David is elite at the position, and he’s being slept on by his leaguemates. Devin White is ascending toward super-stardom. JPP and Barrett are a couple of double-digit sack candidates. But the critical piece is the suddenly legitimate secondary. It has been probably 15 years since we had a legitimate secondary. Don’t get me wrong; we’ve had legitimate corners, but they were consistently undermined by weak safety help. Mike Edwards is Jamal Adams Lite, and a there’s fierce competition between legacy Antoine Winfield and potential breakout Jordan Whitehead. We don’t just have safeties; we have a rotation of them. We are finally free of the shackles of Sabby Piscatelli/Chris Conte spot-starting eight games per season. We even have legitimate competition for the fourth safety spot! And the corners deserve a chef’s kiss. Carlton Davis has been hailed as a shutdown corner, and Jamel Dean emerged as the next Patrick Peterson. Our slot receiver, Sean Muprhy-Bunting, can play outside and would start outside for half the teams in the league. I was surprised we cut MJ Stewart, but what it says to me is that we have other ideas about who the backup slot corner could be. It could be Winfield if Whitehead holds him off in the safety competition. I’m floored by the potential of the defense. Ninth round might be too late.
Matt Gay is another one of these absolute units at kicker, and even if he’s sketchy on FGs, he has a high floor chipping in XPs for a quality offense. (Note: I’ll never forget his miss at the end of that Giants’ game, but I also don’t pin the loss on him after the defense collapsed. Because I refuse to share any opinions Matt Nagy might have.)
Overall, I don’t know how high octane this offense will be. If the defense is as good as I suggest, it makes more sense to do the whole death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts thing on offense. Get those little seven-yard slants mixed in with pounding the rock, bleed clock all game and keep guys fresh for the long haul. The issue I see with this team is the lack of depth in the trenches. They cut almost all of last year’s backups on the O-line (granted they brought in better players), and while they retained their backups on the D-line, none of those backups profile as ascending talents. They are fixed in their roles as backups. If something happened and they had to start, I would be nervous.
(Dudes, the Bucs bye week is Week 13, which in general is a shitty move by the NFL to even have Week 13 byes. It puts a damper on our melee week; it’s really not fair for a team relying on Bucs starters to have to play against the odds with a bunch of opponents instead of just the one. It’s worth talking about. If we made a melee switch, I’d want to have it in writing before the season starts.)
Condensed Ranks
Evans
Godwin
RoJo
Lavonte
Brady
OJ
White
DST
Gronk
Gay
We have every reason to believe that Tennessee peaked last season. They turned Ryan Tannehill into a hyper-efficient QB while Derrick Henry led the league in carries, yards, and TDs. What’s the opposite of the phrase “no place to go but up?” This is the same team whose head coach said he would cut his own dick off to win the Super Bowl. He said he would cut his own dick off to win the Super Bowl, and we’re trusting this guy to maintain the success this team had last season.
It’s not happening, is what I’m saying. But because no one believes it’s happening, the Titans are relatively cheap. Fantasy analysts are approaching even Henry and AJ Brown with caution. They were too efficient last year. The popular wisdom says you fade extreme efficiency because it tends to regress. Personally, I’m all-in on Henry. Not enough RBs are built like that, and none who are can break off a 99-yard run except Derrick Henry.
AJ Brown is a tank himself. He can’t be tackled. A decent amount of his YAC (yards after catch) came in open space, but he also broke eight tackles, which was tied for second among WRs—Hopkins, Kupp, and Diontae Johnson had nine; Godwin, Brown, and… Corey Davis had eight. Woahhhh. Corey Davis szn!!! (Is that still a thing? Did we kill it? Is it dead?)
In all seriousness, I believe in Corey Davis. I love him this year because he might literally be free. His fifth-year option was decline, so it’s a contract year for a four-year starter who has great hands and athleticism. Whatever’s held him back from being a star, I hope he’s put it in the rearview because I’m planning on drafting him in the 15th and watching him finish in the top 40 WRs.
Jonnu Smith is someone people are excited about, and with good reason. He profiles as an every-week starter in our league. Keep in mind it’s on the low-end. He’s unlikely to break through his ceiling like a Hayden Hurst or an Ian Thomas because the Titans’ defense is too good. Even if Smith is more efficient, he won’t see the volume because his team won’t be throwing nearly as much as the Falcons or Panthers. These are just examples. The point is Jonnu Smith is in the top 16 TEs, and he must be drafted. Just don’t go crazy with it.
The DST is elite. You just have to take my word for it. The IDPs to target are Rashaan Evans and Kevin Byard, though they’re late-round guys. The potential breakout comes from Harold Landry, who is one of maybe 20 players with a realistic shot to lead the league in sacks.
I had to look up who the kicker is, so no. It’s a similar situation to the Chargers. You won’t see high offensive volume, but you will see good starting field position combined with stalled drive. The stat everyone is crowing about is how the Titans led the league in red zone efficiency last season, a stat no team ever repeats. So if you like kickers you’ve never heard of, Greg Joseph might be your guy.
Condensed Ranks
Henry
Brown
Davis
Jonnu
DST
Tannehill
Byard
Personally, I don’t fuck with this team. I think they’re cursed. It’s kind of hokey 80s nonsense to believe they are cursed because they had the awfully racist name—I’m talking Poltergeist house on an Indian burial ground type stuff—but I can’t help what I believe. They also have some insidious intertwining with the Bucs, like stealing our QB for their Super Bowl (again in the 80s) and ending our Golden Age in 2005 (we went 11-5, but they beat us in a playoff game I happened to attend, and it was a demoralizing loss, and our team hasn’t been a contender since.
Oh, you want me to talk about Washington, the Washington Football Team, a team whose leadership council wants the owner to sell to someone who’s not an incompetent dick? Okay, let’s talk.
Dwayne Haskins is going to win the QB job. Let that sink in. Remember that no one wanted this dude, including last year’s Washington coaching staff.
He has one proven WR in Terry McLaurin, who Coleman is keeping. The only other WRs to get excited about are Steven Sims, who weighs 170 pounds, and rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden, who melted the faces of whichever teams play against Liberty University in college football—and if there’s any cursed university, it’s Liberty. Actually, there are probably a bunch, but still, Liberty sucks. I won’t get into it here.
The starting TE is likely Logan Thomas, who has been converting from QB to TE for literally five seasons. He’s 29 and he’s finally made it. It’s kind of a cool story, but you don’t get fantasy points for completing character arcs. I am drawn to the position for some reason. I think even the worst team passes for about 3,500 yards in a year, and the starting TE is going to play more than any receiver except McLaurin. It’s worth monitoring, whether it’s Thomas or someone else.
The only player I would consider drafting is Adrian Peterson. If any RB is not cursed, even potentially an anti-curse, it’s Adrian Peterson. We need to support the dream of RBs like Adrian Peterson (and by extension, Frank Gore). RBs who play into their late 30s are our only hope to see the all-time rushing record broken. And the league is fighting against this—not directly—by basically kicking these guys out of the league as soon as they turn 30. I love Adrian Peterson (and Frank Gore) because they not only refuse to quit, they reject your expectations and they tote that fucking rock, baby. They are a dying breed, and they need our love and support so that maybe Jonathan Taylor can have a 15-year career and challenge Emmitt’s record. We as fans should want this. Draft AP and tell people about it. What’s crazy is he’s the starter. It’s really, really insane that a 35-yo RB is starting Week 1. I love it. His offensive line is trash, so if you do draft him, have some self-control.
It’ll be interesting to see what Rivera makes of this defense. Their D-line is made up of four consecutive first-round picks made in the last four drafts. It’s similar to what the 49ers are rocking with, and Chase Young can do what Bosa did last year. Definitely worth a pick. Rivera signed Thomas Davis, who isn’t as quick as he used to be, but he’s a massive upgrade on anything they had, and he can quarterback this defense no problem. Landon Collins is a known quantity, and it’s quality.
Dustin Hopkins had been wearing the same colors and more or less the same logo for his entire adult life until about a month ago. It doesn’t mean anything, but I thought I might as well mention it.
Condensed Ranks
McLaurin
Collins
Peterson
Chase Young
Whew. That was intense. If you managed to get this far, hopefully it helps you at least form some opinions of what you do or don’t believe going into the season so you can shape your team in a way that makes sense to you and makes your season a fun one. I’m sure I missed things, which is to say some player omissions were intentional, but it’s possible I jut forgot about people. Feel free to snipe my sleepers, dicks. I’ve got notions about this season that would make you roll your eyes all the way back up into the womb, okay. I’ll be fine with my ten bottom-50 picks. Just fine.
