Let’s talk about what’s happened the last three weeks.
1. My mom had a stroke. I’ve spent the last three weeks going back and forth between Seattle and Tampa. I’m now living with my mom indefinitely. She’s okay. She’s walking around on her own, doing pretty much everything around the house on her own, but her right side, including her vision, is impacted. Her short-term memory is that of a Jameis Winston, but we’re working towards a full recovery. Mostly she needs someone around her at all times just to minimize the risk of falling, and she needs a driver. Stephanie is continuing to live and work in Seattle, and even though we’ve done long-distance before, this time it’s more challenging, partially because of the financials but mostly because we don’t have a timetable. That’s all I’m going to say about it for now.
2. Lamar Jackson has averaged 47 points per game over the last three weeks. The next best QB is Dak Prescott, averaging 28 points per game. Over that same span, I’m averaging 179 points, while the next best team is Brian at 153. Lamar has officially taken over the MVP conversation, and the Ravens look like the only team capable of beating the Patriots. The Ravens have likewise taken over my team, contributing about 80 points to mmy lineup each week.
3. Christian McCaffrey is #2 in overall fantasy scoring, trailing Lamar by about five points per game. McCaffrey is averaging 28 FP over the last three weeks, propping up Coleman’s team through bye weeks. Coleman’s RBs in general are crushing the competition. In three weeks, the trio of CMC, Ingram, and Hyde is pumping out 58 per week. The next best team is again Brian, averaging 48 per game among Dalvin, Marlon, Melvin, Kareem, and Derrius (only counting points scored in the starting lineup).
4. Brian is rolling despite getting just two points per game from his TE (even when his TE is actually a runningback). Joe Schobert’s scoring 20 per over this same span. Also not hurting: Jameis Winston hurling bombs to Chris Godwin. In total, Brian has five players averaging 20+ FP in November. As far as I know, Sleeper has no option of a head-to-head tiebreaker, so points will determine playoff seeding, meaning (a) I have locked up a bye week, and (b) Brian has at least a 55-point lead for the other one.
5. I am averaging 45 points per week from my WRs, including Hopkins’ Week 10 bye. The next best team is Corey, averaging 37 (mostly Jarvis Landry). So not only am I crushing it at WR; Lamar Jackson is giving me more on his own. But coming into this week, Thomas, Evans, and Hopkins were ranked 1, 3, 6 in WR scoring, with Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, and Tyler Lockett occupying the three spots in between. Also related to positional dominance, most of the top 15 RBs (season-long) are owned by just six teams: Coleman has two, Cameron has two, Brian has two, Tim has two, Kennedy has two, and Evan has three. The two remaining are owned by Shelby and Corey. Even when you stretch the field to top-20, Coleman has one more, Shelby has one more, Corey has two more, and I have one. It still means just eight teams dominating the position, with Oliver, Spencer, and Sean (and basically me) left out.
6. Jarvis Landry is leading WRs in scoring in November, averaging 22 FP. Corey is at or below league-average in scoring at every other position except LB, where Jordan Hicks is averaging even more than Joe Schobert. On the year, Hicks trails Schobert by 0.5, and the duo leads the next LB by 17 points, meaning they’ve got at least a one-game cushion. Corey’s next best player is Joe Mixon, which, even though Mixon’s been incredible since they’ve force-fed him during the Ryan Finley era, tells you everything you need to know about Corey’s season.
7. Ryan Finley averaged seven fantasy points per game in three weeks as starter. Also averaging seven points the last three weeks: Corey’s aggregate QB.
8. I mentioned Brian averaging two points from his aggregate TE, but he’s not alone. Other positions averaging two or fewer FP: Kennedy’s TE, Kennedy’s DST, Sean’s DST, Corey’s DL, and my DL (thanks, Myles). Other shitty stats include Evan and Coleman averaging 11 from their QBs, Spencer getting six points per RB, Oliver and Shelby getting 17 and 19 from their WRs (league-average being 30), and Evan getting three from his TE.
9. For all their dick-measuring over who’s tanking right, Kennedy and Oliver are both cruising closer to the 5th and 6th overall picks in 2020 than they are to the 1st and 2nd. Meanwhile, Oliver’s latest pick in 2020 is going to be in the 11th round. Keep in mind: Oliver is going to make at least one more trade between now and the deadline. Kennedy has two first-rounders, which is nice, but he doesn’t have near the flexibility of someone who can take a defense in the 7th and a kicker in the 8th without giving up a shred of value.
10. Trades happened.
Evan traded away Lev Bell (who was somewhat hurt at the time), Zach Pascal (who was the Colts’ top WR), and a first-rounder to Kennedy in exchange for Josh Jacobs, Golden Tate, and a 5th. When the trade was made, the obvious take was, wow, Evan gave away next season for the chance to upgrade a position he was already set at. At the time, Bell was the 24th ranked RB, and he had some knee concern, and the Jets sucked out loud. Jacobs was ranked 9th, and the Raiders were rolling through everyone. If Evan thought he was one piece away from being a championship team, then it’s… well, it’s still a bad trade because he gave up a 1st. Maybe Evan thought Jacobs had keeper value that would offset the 1st, but no. The thing is: Evan’s team even at that time was like 9th in scoring; he had a winning record because he got two wins in weeks where he scored like 105 and 115. His team wasn’t all that competitive, not competitive enough to be one that one piece away like I talked about. Fast forward to now: Jacobs is still ranked 9th among RBs, but Bell is ranked 12th. Now, the point-differential is more substantial: Jacobs leads by 40, but then again, when you slice that by 11 games, it’s not even four per, meaning Evan traded down about 40 spots in next year’s draft for a four-point boost. AND if we only look at what’s happened since the trade, Jacobs has scored 40 points while Bell has scored 50, so right now, Evan has actually lost an average of three points per week. To be fair, Golden Tate has been the sneaky piece that makes this work, as Evan was bleeding out at the WR position, and Tate has averaged a healthy 16 FP since the trade. But to be even more fair, Evan’s team is bad. It’s not like Sean/Oliver/Kennedy bad, but league average scoring is 133 per team these last three weeks, and Evan’s only clipping 124, and he’s only clipping 124 because he put up 160 in Week 10. In the last two weeks, Evan has scored just 99 and 107 (both losses). It appears he doesn’t have a QB or a TE, and on top of that, his best position (RB) is just 4th best compared to the rest of the league. His WRs aren’t dog shit anymore, but they’re still below league-average. If Evan misses the playoffs, which appears likely, Kennedy will have two picks in the top six overall.
Tim and Oliver made a trade, too. Oliver exchanged Kelce for a 2020 2nd, which is incredible value. Tim is making the playoffs, meaning his 2nd pick would fall between picks 13 and 18. Oliver drafted Kelce this year at 19 overall, which if I’m doing my math right means Oliver is getting back more than he paid, and technically he’s getting something for nothing. Meanwhile, Tim’s team gets objectively better, granted it’s at a position that’s overlooked for a reason. Oliver also unloads two late picks (13 and 14) in exchange for Tim’s 2nd and 9th.
Brian traded Christian Kirk to Cameron in exchange for Derrius Guice. It’s likely to be a meaningless trade, as Deebo Samuel is outplaying Kirk for Cam’s flex spot, and Brian just plain doesn’t need Guice. He started him this week and won my way more than what little Guice delivered, and he might start him next week, but I’m pretty sure Marlon Mack will return when Brian comes out of his first-round bye. It’s a rare trade in our league in that it’s not irresponsible and poses no threat to the balance of power. It’s just a smart trade by two teams with complimentary strengths and needs. Meaningless, but smart.
I traded Cameron Jordan and Josh Gordon to Oliver in exchange for Aaron Donald, and I let Oliver move his worst pick up a round to sweeten the deal. In the week since, Jordan scored 10, and Donald scored 0. I’m confident Donald bounces back, and I’m glad I didn’t need him, but damn. (Update: Jordan scored 20 on Thanksgiving. I’m trash.)
Now, in the next three weeks:
1. My mom is going to get better, slowly but surely.
2. The league might compile enough tape to figure out Baltimore’s offense. I’ve actually been waiting for it every week. The 49ers ostensibly have the best defense, as they are at the top of the league in athleticism and very near the top in scheme. Also, the Ravens just lost their starting center for the year. Centers are absolutely crucial to the function of an offense, especially veteran centers in offenses built around young quarterbacks. The Ravens absolutely dismantled the Rams defense by double-teaming Aaron Donald and throwing away from Jalen Ramsey and Eric Weddle. There’s no double-teaming 49ers linemen because how would you choose between DeForest Buckner and Nick Bosa. They can throw away from Richard Sherman; also, Marquise Brown can outrun Sherman better than he might Jalen Ramsey. There are always ways more ways for the offense to exploit the defense than the other way around. The key for any defense against the Ravens is a combination of generating pressure, keeping containment, and taking away easy throws. In short, you want to make Lamar Jackson uncomfortable and uncertain. The difficulty is somehow taking away running lanes without opening up passing lanes. What’s shocking is that defenses aren’t playing the Ravens the way the Chargers played them in the playoffs. The Chargers play six defensive backs, employing one as a spy. If another team has tried this, I haven’t seen it. It’s fair, I guess, since most teams don’t have an athlete capable of containing Lamar. If we base it solely on Madden ratings (because why not), that means you’d need someone with close to 96 speed and agility combined with 80+ tackling, to say nothing of the awareness needed to react to Lamar’s creativity. The 49ers fastest defender is DB Tavarius Moore (still only a 93, tops), but he is not a good tackler (maybe 70). Their best tackler is probably LB Fred Warner (still mid-80s), and though he is fast (85-ish), he’s probably not fast enough. But if Warner spies Lamar, who covers Mark Andrews? Kwon Alexander could have done it, but he’s out for the year. The only other starting LB is 2019 5th-rounder Dre Greenlaw, who is not fast enough to cover Andrews but maybe could hang with Nick Boyle. So now we look to DBs to solve these problems. Jimmie Ward is agile but not fast, and Jaquiski Tartt is fast but not agile. Either could run with Andrews, but Ward is probably too small to pose a significant threat to Andrews’ catch radius. Neither can be expected to spy Lamar effectively. Basically, no matter how good the 49ers have been, they can’t do anything against the Ravens 13 personnel in the pistol package. Lucky for SF, the Ravens can’t responsibly employ 13-personnel for more than 50% of their offensive snaps. The 49ers defense will have to approach this offense like a batter waiting on their pitch, and their pitch is whenever the Ravens employ 11-personnel on 3rd-and-long. It’s not much, but if they can turn the Ravens over once or twice in that situation, that’s enough to turn the game—granted, I think Baltimore will turn Garappolo over twice, meaning I don’t really think the 49ers can do enough to win this game. But they have a chance.
3. I might be peaking too soon.
4. Corey and Evan will probably miss the playoffs, and they might not even have the juice to compete for the #1 pick. If Evan misses the playoffs, competing for the #1 pick might not even be in his best interest. For what it’s worth, I envision Spencer winning the #1 pick again this year. With the trade deadline actually being the Tuesday after the melee, both Corey and Evan have the chance to make moves toward next season. Evan especially would serve himself well trading his best players for the highest 2020 picks possible. Life without that 1st-rounder is going to be rough.
5. Tim is still one piece away from competing for the championship. He might have to swing a cheap trade for a legitimate flex option because Mo Sanu, Sammy Watkins, and Chris Conley aren’t going to cut it. Speaking of cutting, is Frank Gore worth a roster spot? Is Alexander Mattison? Frank Clark? NICK FOLES? Jesus, Tim.
6. Shelby is on a four-game winning streak, bested only by my five-game winning streak, which coincidentally started with a win over Shelby. In the past three weeks, she’s scoring exactly league average (133 FP), and she’s faced scores of 108, 108, and 121 to get here. It would seem I’m building a case against her winning streak, but what I’m saying is she got lucky at the right time because her team is good enough to win. Ugly wins, sure, but great chances to win at the outset of every contest. The only thing holding her back (besides A’Shawn Robinson, who she’s dropping as soon as the week ends) is Adam Thielen’s hamstring. The most important aspect of Shelby’s win-streak is who she’s winning without: Russ, both Henrys, and Metcalf have had bye weeks, and Thielen has missed the last five weeks. Picking up Mason Crosby has a certain cosmic bonus in that if the Packers keep winning, then the Vikings can’t afford to rest Thielen. Regression dictates that Shelby will start scoring more points, which means her chance of winning is increasing at the right time.
7. Coleman is 6-6, but he’s making the playoffs. All it takes is a tie for sixth-place, but I’m predicting Coleman will get the melee win and finish in 5th. If that happens, he will face Shelby in the playoffs instead of Cameron, and even though I said Shelby is getting better at the best time, it doesn’t matter if you’re improving from a 133 average when Coleman is slumping and still pouring 148 per game.
8. Cameron is the team to beat, except for his defense. His offense—Dak, Zeke, Kamara, OBJ, Diggs, Waller, and Kirk—can take on anyone. But his starting IDPs are Jomal Wiltz (who?), Devin White, and Ronald Dary (stream). Wiltz is a sneaky DL, since he actually plays corner, but by this point you have to be better than starting two corners when pass-rushers and box-safeties carry a premium. Still, these are peripheral concerns. DL is the least impactful position in our league BY FAR. In three weeks, DL has accounted for 69 of our league’s points; the next lowest is kicker, putting in 94.
9. Brian’s team is an enigma. I won’t try to understand it. He’s thrown a bunch of pasta at the wall, and it’s all sticking. He’s streamed his entire back-five all season, but he’s somehow rounded out a real starting lineup up on the doorstep of the playoffs. It doesn’t matter when his players get injured. He has quality backups at RB and WR, and he is clearly fine streaming any other position. Even getting basically nothing from TE hasn’t slowed Brian down. In three weeks, he’s scored 151, 154, and 154. A melee win nets him a bye week, and I think he’s going to get it. I think he’s going to be at the mercy of Jameis Winston in the playoffs, which could mean anything, but his prospects are good with @DET in Week 15 and v.HOU in Week 16.
10. That leaves me. I am riding the Ravens everywhere it makes sense. If I could swing a trade for Mark Ingram, I’d do it. Big truss. Last week, I went into the Ravens game with 85 points and came out with 167. That’s what my whole season has to be about. The WR trio of Evans, Nuk, and Thomas is elite, sure, and the IDP trio of Donald, Leonard, and Adams is elite, yes, but this team will live or die with Ravens, which is why I rock a Lamar jersey in my living room every Sunday, even when the Ravens don’t play until Monday. My real win has been being right about punting RB, and next year, I think I’ll punt even further. I’ll have to with the picks I have, knowing I’ll finagle a trade to draft Evans too high again. Or, and this is what I’m really hoping will happen, I will win this year and give absolutely zero fucks next year. I will literally not even plan for a draft in which I basically have three picks that matter. I will pray for Lamar Jackson’s health and otherwise just throw pasta, Brian-style.
Now, here is your playoff calculator.
1. Doak
I am too far ahead in points to lose the #1 seed.
2. Brian
#2 – Brian wins
OR Shelby and Cam lose
#3 – Brian loses, Shelby or Cam lose, and Tim loses
OR Brian, Shelby, and Cam lose, and Tim wins and outscores Brian by 55
#4 – Brian loses, Shelby and Cam win, Tim loses
#5 – Brian loses, Shelby and Cam win, Tim wins, and Tim outscores Brian by 55
3. Cameron
#2 – Cam wins, Brian loses
#3 – Cam wins, Brian wins
#4 – Cam loses, Shelby wins, Tim loses
#5 – Cam loses, Shelby and Tim win
(If Cameron outscores Tim by 106, he will finish above Tim regardless)
4. Shelby
#2 – Shelby wins, Brian and Cam lose
#3 – Shelby wins, Brian wins, Cam loses
#4 – Shelby, Brian, and Cam win
#4 – Shelby loses, Tim loses
#5 – Shelby loses, Tim wins
5. Tim
#2 Tim wins, Brian, Cam, and Shelby lose, and Tim outscores Brian by 55
#3 Tim wins, Cam and Shelby lose
#4 Tim wins, Cam or Shelby lose
#5 Tim loses, Coleman loses
#6 Tim loses, Coleman wins
6. Coleman
#5 Coleman wins, Tim loses
#6 Coleman wins, Tim wins
OR Coleman, Evan, and Corey lose
#7 Coleman loses, Evan or Corey win
#8 Coleman loses, Evan and Corey win
7. Corey
#6 Corey wins, Coleman loses
#7 Corey wins, Coleman wins
OR Corey and Evan lose
#8 Corey loses, Evan wins
8. Evan
#6 Evan wins, Corey and Coleman lose
#7 Evan wins, Corey loses
#8 Evan loses
(The #7 and #8 get first-round byes in the pick ladder. Unlike previous years, the only way to get the #1 pick is to win out in the consolation bracket. The #9-12 losers in Week 14 will play for the 5/6 picks in Week 15 & 16, just like the #3-6 losers will play for the 7/8 picks in Week 15 & 16.)
9. Spencer
#9 Spe wins
OR Spe, Oliver, and Sean lose
#10 Spe loses, Oliver or Sean win
#11 Spe loses, Oliver and Sean win
10. Oliver
#9 Oliver wins, Spe loses
#10 Oliver wins, Spe loses, Sean wins, and Sean outscores Oliver by 68.
OR Oliver and Sean lose
#11 Oliver loses, Sean wins
11. Sean
#9 Sean wins, Oliver and Spe lose
OR Sean and Oliver win, Sean outscores Oliver by 68, and Spe loses
#10 Sean wins, Oliver or Spe lose
#11 Sean, Oliver and Spe win
OR Sean loses
12. Kennedy Kennedy clinched 12th place and the league’s only double-digit loss total. His faring in the melee only serves to feed the calculus of other people’s outcomes. Kennedy’s team is fifth business.
Now, melee predictions:
Winners
Brian – the only concern I have is Jameis Winston, not because of Jameis himself but because Jacksonville’s pass-rush is significantly better than the Bucs pass-blocking. Jameis will probably throw for 300 yards and two TDs, but if Jameis suffers five sacks and turns it over twice avoiding pressure, then he won’t hit that sweet fantasy ceiling. Volume will win out elsewhere for Brian, with all of his players seeing between 10 and 20 touches.
Cam – He’s already averaging close to 20 points per player, scoring 96 with seven players left to play: three WRs, TE, and all three IDPs. His floor is probably in the neighborhood of 150 points. His floor.
Coleman – Except for Watson and Hyde vs. NE and Ingram vs. SF, the matchups for Coleman are good. Even those matchups are decent because his players are at home. Also, I have very little confidence in the rush defense of New England and San Fran. Each of them are allowing more than 4.5 yards per rush attempt (league average is 4.3). The reason these two defense are at the top is that their pass defenses are elite, the only two defenses allowing fewer than five net yards per pass attempt. What does this have to do with Coleman? All the rest of his matchups are amazing. Even mediocre contribution from Watson, Hyde, and Ingram should be enough.
Shelby – It’s mostly a Russell Wilson thing, but also the Rams finally understand you can only save Todd Gurley for the playoffs if you actually make the playoffs. There really aren’t many reasons to think Shelby will win. Derrick Henry is banged up heading into a rough matchup, Adam Thielen is a game-time decision, and that Jets defense is bound to disappoint in a game they should definitely win.
Tim – Fire up the Aaron Rodgers comeback train again! Don’t count on anything from Fournette against Tampa, but do expect big things from those Chiefs receivers. Also, the matchup between run-first teams Carolina and Washington bodes very well for Kuechly and Collins.
Doak – The only thing I was worried about looking ahead to this week was the Ravens vs. SF matchup, but now I’m not worried anymore. Plus, I’m writing this with the knowledge that my RBs have already come through, so I feel confident.
Losers
Kennedy – Probably the sneakiest potential winner of the projected losers, Kennedy has quality players at every position, and everyone but Chris Carson has a good matchup. The matchup shouldn’t matter all that much for Carson. If you get 20 carries, you tend to do enough to help your fantasy team. I really dislike Courtland Sutton’s matchup with the Chargers, and I would go so far as to recommend swapping in Boyd against the Jetes (not a typo).
Oliver – That’s right! The two tankers have the best chance to play spoiler in the melee. I wouldn’t have counted Oliver as a melee contender before Thanksgiving, but working with the knowledge of what happened in those games already, Oliver’s in position to steal a win for no reason other than to fuck people over. It’s not even about the individual players or the matchups. It’s solely an agent-of-entropy situation, the universe conspiring chaos just because.
Spencer – I have to give Spencer more credit for being able to outscore Kennedy and Oliver. Spencer’s players are better, and his matchups are just as good. It’s honestly an oversight that I waited until now to mention him. He’s the best of the worst and my pick to win that loser’s bracket. Mahomes alone gives Spencer an edge over most teams, good and bad. I see Barkley having a good game against a bad Packers defense, and I see George Kittle exploiting the Ravens defense the most of the 49ers weapons.
Evan – Wentz and the Eagles defense (@MIA) give Evan a chance here, but with Chubb, Lindsay, and Keenan Allen probably underachieving, it seems like Evan will be on the outside looking in.
Corey – I can’t put together a narrative for Corey winning. His players are basic, and his matchups are average. Brady should do well. Landry should do well. Everyone else seems like they’ll just be okay. Might be enough if you only have to beat one team, but when you have to beat six, it’s not enough to be average; you have to be exactly one notch above average.
Sean – Dude, your team sucks. Jonathan Williams and Benny Snell don’t give me any confidence this week. And you’re rolling no-defense. Just pitiful.
Which means the playoffs will look like:
Jameis and Lamar on bye
Cameron vs. Coleman (winner plays Brian)
Shelby vs. Tim (winner plays Doak)
Corey and Evan on bye
Spencer vs. Kennedy (winner plays Evan)
Oliver vs. Sean (winner plays Corey)
And now, sleep.
