This week’s note is brought to you by panic and dread.
I’m making a desperate trade this week—rather, I’ve already made it, based on when I predict this note will be up. I only planned to play Drew Brees for a week anyway, so the real bones of the trades for me are the two 2020 picks. In the third, fourth, and fifth rounds of this year’s draft, I selected Devin Singletary, Josh Gordon, and Lamar Jackson. So did having three picks instead of one do anything for me, other than I guess give me the warm sense of security at RB/WR enough that I could afford a little luxury in that Lamar reach? Okay, fine, sure, but fourth-dimensionally, I’m going to start the 2020 draft season by looking at the 2019 draft results and be reminded that I played fast and loose with those early picks, and if we can’t be responsible with these picks, then maybe they need to be taken away from us. If the Hopkins trade doesn’t pan out, that little bit of lack might be just the edge I need to stay focused next season. Going into it with the mentality of “what’ the worst that could happen” is probably the worst that could happen already. How does a 4-3 start feel like such a calamity? It’s probably no more complicated than losing your two keepers and your 3rd and 4th round picks in about a week and a half, and capping it off by getting shellacked by 90 points, with pretty much that whole 90 coming from a quarterback you openly despise and a cheat-code defense—not mention, you know, bottoming out in terms of my own personal scoring. Look, you want consistent pronoun use, you go somewhere they stick to their AP style.
So my quarterback for now and forever is Lamar Jackson, and my WRs are Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins. I feel like I have a solid back-five, so my only real question-marks are both RB spots and maybe TE, though Mark Andrews has been as good as anybody not named Austin Hooper (Coleman, when’s that OJ trade coming?). Really, I feel like if all I have to figure out from week to week is a couple RB spots, I can manage. I can’t expect much, I don’t expect much, and I know there are points floating around out there. I feel like I can play a safe game at RB and wind up with a combined 10 from the two spots and make up for it with excellent play elsewhere. I am just that keen at self-deception. Yes, I understand the chicken-counting I’m doing here, but still I feel the trade is a necessary gamble given that I feel optimistic about my roster. It’s hard to do after such a brutal defeat, and you should all be commending my candor and my confidence amid this grand adversity.
So why the panic? Why the dread? The panic caused the trade, and the trade caused the dread. My team is filthy, but it really doesn’t make sense that it even came together, and so I fear what feels like certain demise. Maybe that feeling is predictive of the more distant future. Besides Lamar and probably Derwin, I’m starting next season without anything like the core I have now, and I won’t have the assets to assemble a similar one.
This is a periodical reminder that this is all gambling and very few of our decisions end up affecting the ultimate outcome. But also, like, I have the best QB and three of the best five WRs (Godwin and Julio being the other two), and I’m giddy but giddy like with the knowledge that people have been this giddy about Some Thing and the ultimate outcome was crushing defeat when That Thing didn’t pan out.
So fuck it. Let’s be happy instead. Go get you some happy. Think about how fun it will be if Oliver has four extra picks in the first five rounds and still ends up missing the playoffs.
So the elephant in the room—or at least the elephant in my mind—is the question of whether or not tanking in our league is ethical. I mean, I guess that assumes Oliver is tanking. He loses a top-5 receiver, sure, but he had depth at the position and badly needed a reliable QB. Granted, a 40-yo QB recovering from thumb surgery to his throwing hand isn’t the most reliable QB, but Oliver didn’t want Minshew, so here we are. I probably have a problem with tanking, and sole credit goes to cognitive dissonance in convincing me I’m all right with people trading elite players for so-so picks and saying things like, “let’s get this arms race started.”
Something important I want to put out there: having more first-round picks is how you win in our league. Cameron won last year because I’m stupid. No, Cameron won last year because he had two keepers worthy of first-round picks, and he had two first-round picks. Even if you ignore the second-rounder he spent on OBJ, Cameron was going to win it all; he just wasn’t going to win by twenty every week while he did it. So this year, I’m trying to follow that design. With keepers drying up most of the second and third rounds, the top 15 or so are crucial because they’re the only guys we really trust regardless of matchup. By my count, I have the four first-round talents necessary to pull off a championship, and yes, the fourth is Lamar Jackson.
I would spend a first-round pick on Lamar Jackson without hesitation. I’m thinking about whether I’d truly spend the 1.01 or 1.02 on him, and I know I’d at least lose sleep over it before ultimately picking Saquon or McCaffrey or Dalvin. The thing about Lamar is, even though he’s technically RB and QB in one, the fantasy output doesn’t bear out that claim. He can only reasonably be expected to put up passing or rushing numbers each week. Believe me, I’ve tried to do both in Madden (on All-Madden), and it’s damn near impossible to get him above 300 passing and 100 rushing because in order for him to be able to do those things, you need to be able to soften the defense by getting 50-100 rushing yards with the actual RB, and running the ball takes time. What I’m saying is, in order to chase that 50-point week that Lamar appears more likely to get than most QBs, he has to score touchdowns, and there’s no reason for the Ravens to scheme to get him touchdowns. It makes too much sense to pound Ingram and Edwards in the red zone. With a sketchy defense, it makes too much to scheme toward winning field position and time of possession rather than try to hit huge plays and score in under three minutes the way Mahomes and Reid do. What breaks teams backs when they play the Ravens is just how methodical and patient they are on offense. They can scheme their way to three or more yards on almost every play, and they love going for it on fourth down. My obsession this week was listening to as many people as possible describe how Lamar Jackson avoids taking big hits from defenders by controlling his body so that he makes a crucial twitch the split-second before the hit arrives and somehow avoids 90% of the punishment a normal RB takes. Part of this is the psychology of the QB position versus that of the RB. Zeke phrased a certain way I can’t quite remember, but it was something along the lines of, as a bell-cow runningback, the job is to deliver hits, not take them. But as quarterback, the job is to do neither. The job is to never take hits ever, no matter how much we praise a guy when he does stand tall in pocket and take that vicious hit as he delivers a perfect pass to win the game. When coaches talk about QBs not taking unnecessary hits, they’re talking about every hit but that one, and that one should only come when the team can’t win without it (you know, necessary.) So Lamar puts up RB stats, but he doesn’t run like one. He barely runs like a WR. He runs like a lightning fast QB with three years left on his rookie deal. And it’s no coincidence that RG3 is the backup in Baltimore. I think that’s a psychological move on the Ravens part, a persistent, subconscious reminder to tread lightly. I’m not saying he’ll avoid major injury. I’m saying that he’ll avoid being Andrew Luck and Cam Newton (and eventually Deshaun Watson), these beat-to-shit playmakers who are out of the league at the same time as your average starting runningback. We think because they’re QBs that their fates will trend toward longevity, but like the modern NFL is showing us, your position in the program isn’t what matters; like Grantland Rice said, it’s how you play the game. If you take damage every play, or if you rely purely on your speed, or if you lower your head instead of your shoulder, you’re capping your career at around 36, and that’s if you have rare ability or durability. I think Lamar is different. I think he intuited something about the running quarterback that the guys who paved the way didn’t have the privilege of seeing. The 10,000 hours of seeing the faux pas of the running quarterback crests with Lamar. If he continues to avoid unnecessary damage and develop his passing skills, he’s going to do what Russell Wilson has shown us is possible. He’s going to transform from a dual-threat QB into the field general, controlling every aspect of the game with his not only his attitude and athleticism but with his attention to detail.
As a passer, there is plenty to like about Lamar. He sets his feet when he throws, he throws from multiple arm-slots, and makes aggressive throws both into tight windows and downfield. This stuff doesn’t always work, but who would expect it to? Dude is 22. Four of his five interceptions were the result of tipped passes. The other was an errant deep ball. Granted, that doesn’t mean four weren’t his fault. From what I remember, though, only one of them was tipped by the defense before being intercepted; the other three were tipped by his own players. Look, we can’t say he has two interceptions when he clearly has five, but even five through seven weeks is money for a young quarterback. The list of young QBs with low interception rates is surprisingly strong, though. In the group of QBs 25 or under with seven games played, Lamar is behind Mahomes, Minshew, Murray, and Watson in interception rate. Kyle Allen has only played four games, but he has thrown zero interceptions. QBs 25 or under with a higher interception rate in as many games include Baker, Jameis, Goff, Josh Allen, and Danny Dimes. Sam Darnold doesn’t technically qualify, but we know which side of the line he’s on. I personally believe that interception rate is a shortcut to quantifying a QB’s decision-making. Sure, some passes get tipped. But even then, the rate at which unforced errors hurt you indicates you’re doing something wrong, even if the thing we’re zooming in on isn’t exactly it.
If there is a way to stop the Ravens’ offense, no one had figured it out yet—granted, it’s been two months. The test is on the other side of the bye week. Baltimore has two weeks to prepare for Bill Belichick, and Bill Belichick has probably been prepared since last season. If Belichick can draw the blueprint, the rest of the league can follow. Just look at what’s happened to Sean McVay. The Rams were 2nd in offensive DVOA last season. Almost halfway into 2019, they’re 17th. The other teams in the top five (KC, LAC, NO, and NE, respectively) in 2018 are now 2nd, 13th, 7th, and 14th; the Chargers have the same woes as the Rams (OL, RB, DB), yet they sit four spots higher. The Patriots have literally no reason to push the ball downfield or do anything but run clock while on offense, and they sit three spots higher than this Rams team, and it’s because of the same type of thing that happened to the Golden State Warriors. Even the idiots of the league figured out how to resemble them, so now preparing for half the teams in the league is at least similar to preparing for the Rams.
All this is mostly to say that your Rams’ stock isn’t worth what you paid for it. I realize it’s a weird week to say it since they’re about to dump all over the Bengals in London, but whatever.
I lost track of what I was talking about. Mostly Lamar being awesome. But I can talk about something else. It’s fine.
I’m playing Gardner Minshew this week, which isn’t something I intended to do, but I figured what the hell. The Jags never planned to play him, and here we are in Week 8 and he’s not only playing but playing well enough to brew up a QB controversy with a newly minted 20-million-dollar quarterback, a guy who might actually be too expensive for the Jaguars to cut or bench, which makes you wonder what exactly football teams are trying to do. I think I can quote a Billy Beane-ism about keeping the money on the field, and then make the same face pseudo-David-Justice makes when he says, “Soda money? Where on the field is the dollar-fifty I’m paying for soda?” The answer from the Jags would likely be the same one “Peter Brandt” gives: “It’s hard to see.” But either way, what was intended to be a burned bench spot for a week turned into a symbol for something vaguely intriguing turned into a reasonable option against a Jets team that just hates itself. The risk is obvious: the Jets are coming off of national embarrassment (and I’m not just talking about the last 50 years, ey ohhh!) against the greatest team of all time. The weight is off the bat, and they are raring to swing away. My hope is that Garnder Minshew is the equivalent of a Henry Rowengardner eephus, and the Jets swing straight through for the final out. Baseball movies, fantasy football, it’s all the same.
Let’s follow that thread, why not. We pretend we’re making football-adjacent decisions when we play fantasy, but we’re closer to baseball managers, filling stationery spots based on statistical averages. We weigh individual matchups (WR X against the Y defense) the way a manager considers pitching matchups (from either perspective). We can take things deeper. We can consider the Colts like to run the ball on offense and deploy a mostly-zone defense. We can look at a matchup and assume the team more likely to win will also likely have more rushing attempts, but when we square it all away, we want what the manager wants. We want guys who have the most opportunities; we want our batters to see as many pitches as possible. In a game of probability, the only way to ensure eventual victory is to be able to take the most shots. It’s why rich people are better at gambling than poor people. It’s why the rich get richer. All they’re doing is taking more shots—mm, technically they just have the ball more often.
Time of possession. That’s what I’m talking about. Sure. Let’s just connect dots until the paper is full. Teams with a knack for leading time of possession are usually running more efficient plays and winning more games. But everyone is trying to win time of possession—except Mahome and Reid, which is why they fail.
Okay, tangent time: the reason Andy Reid can’t win the big game is because Andy Reid is more interested in running a quality offense than he is exploiting the parameters of the game, specifically time. The one way in which we are not playing baseball is that we know the game will last a maximum of 70 official minutes, and when you subtract the necessary time it takes to call a play and line up, there is an absolute limit of how many plays can be run and how many points can be scored, and smart teams used to try to run the most plays, but that was before the officiating collapse. The advent of instant replay and the addition of more and more of it and the inane analysis applied to it makes the officiating worse and worse. These guys are blowing calls left and right and throwing more flags and reviewing more calls to try and account for the on-field error. If you want to win now, you want to drain the clock from the very beginning. What you find when you watch the clock is this: they don’t put time back for most penalties. If you run a six-second play and the play gets called back for holding or whatever, the down stays the same, but the seconds stay gone. So if we’re averaging 15 penalties per game, that’s maybe only a minute and a half of actual gameplay, but remember what the Jets did Monday night when they declined two offensive penalties by the Patriots. It kept being fourth down, and the clock kept running. Adam Gase let an extra 50 seconds run off the clock while he was measuring dicks with Belichick. So while only six seconds run off for the play itself, offensive penalties carry an extra 20 seconds or so, so if we assume (for no reason other than I don’t want to find the real numbers) that half of penalties are offensive, then we’re draining at least four minutes of every game on penalties. It’s not coincidence that number works out to 6.66%
Instant Replay is the Devil’s Netflix.
That didn’t end up being a tangent. If the game is 7% shorter, time of possession is more crucial than ever. I realize this is an oversimplification and also irrelevant for the purposes of figuring out how to win at fantasy football. Oh well.
Last week we finished the basement. We know it’s Oliver and Kennedy down there and that maybe Spencer could join them but probably not. One of the weirder supblots of this season is that Spencer is shaping up to win the first overall pick again, and he’ll probably spend it on Saquon Barkley again. I don’t know what to do with that. It can’t be common across other leagues that the same player would get the same pick and spend it on the same person. Maybe he’d pick Dalvin Cook, though, so nevermind. The point is: Kennedy and Oliver are not winning out and so they’re not making the playoffs. Oliver is probably sacrificing his chances of winning the #1 pick by dumping his roster, but Kennedy’s one win, remember, was when he nearly scored 200 points to keep his foot on Coleman’s throat in the series. I was going to make a point about how he’s doing well in scoring, but that was only true the first couple of weeks. He’s third-worst in scoring. His chances are bad.
Tim is, uh, gonna win the league, though, I think, and it’s maybe because I felt his might so immediately this week but also because he’s scoring a lot of points every week, and he’s doing it without consistently getting them from any one player—except the Pats D, but we expect them to keep it up, no? Len Cuatro has just one touchdown, while Aaron Jones has (I think) nine. That’s bound to flip, making it a wash. Most of his hot streak has been sans Tyreek Hill, too, and his Mohamed Sanu stash—which I assume was intended to handcuff Calvin Ridley—became Apple stock overnight. Maybe not overnight; maybe it takes Sanu a week to be integrated, but why? They had no problem feeding Antonio Brown for like no reason in the same timeframe, Sanu happens the healthiest non-rookie receiver on the roster, and if you’re going to spend a second-rounder in any capacity, the intention is usually to get an immediate impact. So, Tim, enjoy.
Cameron also got a massive stock upgrade this week when Emmanuel Sanders got traded from the Flacconites to Shanahancisco, and he’d already been the benefactor of whatever the hell happened to Minnesota—basically they realized the forward pass was an effective method for moving the ball—making Stefon Diggs a steal in this year’s draft (though, let’s be real, would’ve been a way better steal had Cam drafted Guice at the end of the 3rd and saved Diggs for the 4.01 pick). And after a slow start, Cameron is in solid position to make the playoffs. He’s got two rough bye weeks starting now, but even if he loses both, he’s 5-4 with nothing but open road in front of him after that. But while it lasts, I will greatly enjoy watching him play Ryan Tannehill this week and some rando K/DEF combination next week. I’m not optimistic Cam makes the playoffs without luck, though, as Dallas has a rough schedule ahead, and even though they looked fine against the Eagles, they are clearly nothing special. They’ll make the playoffs, but the list of teams who couldn’t win the NFC East is shorter than the one of teams who could.
Corey actually has more points so far than Cameron, but it feels like a tenuous situation. His starting lineup hits 150 more often than it doesn’t, but his lineup is basically his whole team. I mean, sure, he gets a choice between Joe Mixon and Jarvis Landry every week, but he’s ultimately just walking outside without a weather report every day. If the sun is out, it’s all good, though, and right now, the sun is out.
Evan drafted Le’Veon Bell third overall, probably based on the high baseline provided by a player whose coach would feed him as much as it took to earn all that money he didn’t want to pay him in the first place. The problem is that the offensive line is so bad that all Bell can do is hit exactly that baseline on a weekly basis. Now, Evan’s other potential third pick (I think) was DeAndre Hopkins (evil chuckle), and my assumption is that Bell has been the better option. Here is a comparison.
Player A: 508 yds, 3 TDs, 32 FD, 99 FP
Player B: 501 yds, 2 TDs, 23 FD, 84 FP
Why would I hide their names unless I already knew that we would find out our assumptions were wrong? I don’t know. It’s a common device that seemed appropriate. Player A is DeAndre Hopkins, and Player B is Bell, but let’s be fair. Bell has had his bye week, and Hopkins hasn’t.
Nuk, per game: 73 yards, 4.5 FD, 14 FP
Bell, per game: 83 yards, 4 FD, 14 FP
So it’s a wash, I guess, unless you have a compelling stance on which is better between a solid baseline of Bell versus the peaks and valleys of Hopkins. Does any of this matter if Carson Wentz can’t get his shit together? And what about the Bears defense? They certainly look like shit after a couple key injuries. So even though you have three of the best 15 RBs in the league, I think poor play from two or three other guys per week can sink you. Evan has two wins against the twins this season, with a total of 205 points across those wins. He scored about 105 to beat Coleman in Week 2 and just 90 (!) to beat Kennedy last week. This 5-2 record is a fraud, but is it even enough of a fraud that anything can be done about it. With six weeks left in our regular season, Evan can go 3-3 and make the playoffs. So even with the peaks and valleys of his QB and DST (and TE), Evan is probably able to go .500 from here, especially since two of his stud RBs have already had their byes.
There are three of us at 4-3 and two more at 3-4, but like, let’s distance ourselves from mediocrity if we want our own paragraphs in The Note, all right? Let’s stop scoring 110 and losing and be more like Evan and score 105 and win, and then maybe we can get our name in lights. If the first 3,000 words are reserved for aimless gripes about the league, how can I save steam to talk about fringe playoff teams?
Prediction time.
I’m without Lamar Jackson this week, and I’m not confident Gardner Minshew can fill that void. I’m also without a legitimate starting RB. I’m also starting Jimmy Graham coming off a strong week, which is never when you wan to start Jimmy Graham. But I have that sweet WR triple-stack starting, which is something I won’t be able to say in Weeks 9 or 10 while I withstand the Saints and Texans bye weeks. I also have three just gross IDPs and the DST playing the Dolphins (granted, the Fitzmagic Dolphins are not the mush matchup that the Rosen Dolphins were). So I’m confident I can hold off Russell Wilson’s strong matchup against Atlanta, though Atlanta will be without Matt Ryan, so I don’t see why the Seahawks will throw the ball more than ten times, but then again it is somewhat of a last stand for Dan Quinn and maybe Dirk Koetter, so we might see some crazy shit. Pete Carroll likes people, and he might show mercy to his friend Dan Quinn, might let them hang around just enough that Russ will have to push the ball downfield to stay ahead. And even if it’s a blowout, you have to score points to achieve a blowout. Just because the Seahawks run for most of their yards doesn’t mean they’ll run for most of their touchdowns. Wilson could throw three endzone fades to DK Creatine and sink my battleship, but hopefully me imagining it makes it impossible, which is the same logic I use to avoid anything potentially good that comes as a result of trying anything slightly scary. I’m not ignoring Todd Gurley; I just don’t think he’s okay, and I don’t the Rams feel compelled to prove he’s okay. In what situation would he score a lot of points against the Bengals? He will probably get 10 touches, most of them in enough open space so that he doesn’t get hit too hard on rolled up on too awkwardly, so maybe he breaks a screen pass for a long TD? I’m thinking he hits 20 max, which is fine since the Bucs will shut down Derrick Henry. Shelby is also starting Corey Davis against the Bucs, and I just can’t imagine starting two Titans (three with the defense!) against any team, much less a team I don’t want to see them do anything against. But then, there’s merit in hedging your fantasy ideals against the ones you hold for reality, isn’t there?
I will win, and my best player will be Mike Evans. Shelby’s best non-Russell, non-Gurley player will be Hunter Henry.
Spencer didn’t get much from Kirk Cousins Thursday, and I imagine it’s really disheartening to start consecutive weeks with 10-point efforts from QBs who were supposed to hit 20+ easy. And it’s never good when the top WR tethered to that QB outscores him for your opponent’s cause. Still, it’s only the beginning. The rest of Spencer’s matchups are good, if not great. Devonta Freeman, in particular, will have serious fuck-you energy after getting ripped by frail, white journalists all week, and Matt Schaub loves a good checkdown. James Conner gets to help the Steelers win time of possession against Miami.
(Omg, btw, Miami won time of possession against the Bills last week. Assuming Miami has smart coaches—which I hope we all know is true—they are aware of two keys to victory this season: keep the other offense off the field, and if you’re going to lose, lose quickly. I think they’re going to win a game, and it would be just my luck if they won this one. More likely, they’ll beat Adam Gase next week and maybe again in Week 14. Miami’s “playoff schedule” Weeks 14-16 goes NYJ, NYG, CIN, so we might actually target Dolphins those weeks, which is crazy to think about but also sooo 2019 of them.)
Uh, Spencer and Cameron’s matchup, my heart’s not in it. I can see Ryan Tannehill scoring fewer points than Kirk Cousins every week for the rest of time, but I can also see Titans receivers catching wide open passes and running them into the endzone against Tampa’s “secondary.” If there’s a week to beat Cameron, it’s a no-Zeke week, especially if Kamara is questionable for a game the Saints should win by 20. Is there a world in which Stephon Gilmore doesn’t own Odell Beckham? What hope should Cameron have? That Jamaal Williams shreds the Chiefs? Fine. Wil Lutz hits five field goals? Cool. Not enough to take down Spencer, who has actually outscored Cameron by about 50 this season.
Spencer wins with Freeman in front. Cam’s best will end up being Diggs.
Sean and Coleman are playing a game, and their records suggest it should be close, but their overall scoring and just generally the names involved make it clear Coleman will win by lots and lots of points, like probably 40 points, making Sean the favorite to win this week’s cash when Butker leads the league in points but sadly also leads Sean’s teams in points—just kidding, that’ll be Latavius Murray, and that’s all you need to know to understand Sean’s team. Sean’s two wins the last two weeks saw him average under 130. The league average in the last two weeks is 140. We can offer Sean hope, though. Christian McCaffrey is playing what people are saying is the best front-seven in the league in San Fran. Otherwise, things are pretty sweet for Coleman. But if Latavius Murray can just do what he did last week, then Sean only needs like 120 points from… a bunch of total assholes. And that’s Sean’s hope of the week!
Coleman’s best player will be Watson, then Lockett (look I know I said Seattle would run all day or that thing about endzone fades, but if you heard Deshaun Watson break down the Falcons D a couple weeks ago, you know they’re getting beat bad by at least one Lockett streak straight down the middle this week). Sean’s best non-Latavius player will be Matt Stafford, who you all think you’re too good when really he’s the one who’s too good for you.
Oliver and Kennedy meet in the drawing of the basement line, and the line is horizontal. Matt Ryan is out, and at the time of this writing, Kennedy doesn’t have a second option. Meanwhile, Oliver is willingly benching Drew Brees, even though it was announced he would start. Look, if you don’t want him, just give him back. I don’t mind dropping the Cowboys D and starting Drew Brees this week. Really, I’ll give him right back. Even with Brees in the lineup, Kennedy has the clear advantage. Chris Carson is going to carry the ball 90% of the plays in the first half on his way to another 100 yards and a TD. Josh Jacobs is kind of hurt but probably playing. I think Gruden is resting him and using perception to soften the Texans defense. If they think Jacobs is probably our or in but hurt, their mental edge softens just enough to let Jacobs pound through them. David Montgomery should be everyone’s nightmare this week, as a lot of people will bench him only for him to get 25 carries against a weak Chargers front. The talk among the fantasy experts this week was saturated with recency bias coming off some rough outings. Dudes, the Bears’ coaches are aware they have been sucking. They will change course in order to not suck in perpetuity. Granted, I don’t think Matt Nagy’s a good coach, but I agree with him when he says he’s not an idiot. Damn, I should totally have offered a David Montgomery trade this week. (Maybe I will before the note posts.) The rest might be in Oliver’s favor, but I think the 80 combined from those three will be enough to swing the game after Kennedy makes some last-minute changes before the games tomorrow.
Kennedy wins with his best non-RB being Vance MnDonald. Oliver’s best player, not including Brees on the bench, will be Robert Woods.
Fart69 is off to the right start against Tim’s juggernaut team. Dalvin Cook put up 31 Thursday night, which bring Brian’s chance of winning all the way up to 48%. When Brian puts a healthy TE in the lineup, that percentage should be more like 52, and I think that’s more than enough when you consider the sleeper is sleeping on Jameis this week, projecting him for 23 when he’s going to clear 30. I would like to see Melvin Gordon make an appearance with the Bears defense cratering, but I can’t see why Brian would sit Kenny G coming off a down week with a good matchup—oh, I know! Because Melvin Gordon is coming off the worst game of his life with a great matchup coming up. Make us happy, Brian! Take down Tim! Tim has The Green Bay Aarons against KC, which would be a great matchup if Mahomes were healthy. I think something was way off in that KC-Denver game. I don’t know why Denver took such a brutal nosedive, but I know KC didn’t play well at all on offense, and the Packers offensive line is top-5, while the Broncos is bottom-10. The Chiefs’ only hope is that their playing at home. I believe Aaron Rodgers will stay hot but that Aaron Jones will cede touched to Jamaal Williams. Tyreek Hill won’t do shit against Jaire Alexander. Things look okay otherwise. Tim’s elite IDPs should provide their typical 30-point base, Lenny Fo-Fo should stomp all over the Mosley-less Jets, and Mo Sanu should show out in his first Pats game. I don’t love Chase Edmonds this week, especially coming off such a monster effort, so there’s hope for Brian there. What Brian lacks in IDPs you’ve heard of, he more than makes up for with skill position players you wish you had taken instead of David Johnson (sorry, Sean).
Brian will win, with Jameis narrowly outscoring Dalvin. Tim’s best player will be Rodgers, then Fournette, then Kuechly.
Finally, a Gators-only matchup between two 5-2 teams. I’ve already hinted pretty strongly that I think Evan’s record is inflated, while I’ve suggested that with healthy players, Corey will thrive. So let’s cut the part where I ramble about relative chances. The Patriots get a decent opponent in the Browns, but all that means is that the points-distribution might favor Brady/Edelman instead of Michel. Evan’s hinging his hopes on an overrated QB against an elite defense, and his only favorable matchups are Lev Bell and Kenny Stills. Bell should do what he’s done all season; actually, he’ll probably post his highest total of the season. But that’s where the fun ends. T.Y. Hilton and Joe Mixon can’t possibly have great games, but Corey can withstand that when basically none of Evan’s players have good games.
Corey will win, and his best player will be Tom Brady. Evan’s best non-Bell player will be Larry Fitz starting in place of Keenan Allen.
Later, nerds.
