A brief overview of the NFL situation, by division.
(Disclaimer: it did not end up being brief. It’s a solid 4,000 words, so if you don’t care about generalizations about the NFL, scroll past. You’ll see where to stop.)
AFC East
PATS GOOOOD. Fantasy-wise, stash ‘em all.
The Bills have a solid rushing attack, and Josh Allen gets involved in that as well as making some great throws, but he still makes a lot of WTF throws that make it hard to take him seriously as a QB. He’s very similar to Carson Wentz, but with more speed and a less pass accuracy. Stop laughing. Stop it. The Bills defense is probably the best in the league. They are making the playoffs, and they can hang with anyone as long as Josh Allen doesn’t get railroaded running for a first down. For fantasy, you want the QB, RBs, and fast receivers.
The Jets are as good as you have to be to beat the Dallas Cowboys, which is to say they’re squarely on the fringes of relevancy, but in this division, in this conference, that means no playoffs. For fantasy, they should be taken seriously on offense and defense. Remember most of what we’ve seen has been sans Darnold and Mosley. What would the Seahawks be without Wilson and Wagner? It’s a poor comparison but an apt analogy. The Jets are a solid B-minus.
Fins BAAAAD.
AFC North
The Ravens’s offense leads the league in yards and is second in points. Most of it is rushing yards; the Ravens are the only team above 1,000 rushing yards, and they have 1,230. But still, they’re solidly top-half in passing yards. They are also first in the NFL in offensive plays; in yards-per-play, they’re squarely top-ten. They are the only team in the NFL scoring points on more than 50% of their drives. The Chiefs are second at 48%, and the Colts are third at 42%. There are only eight teams at or above 40%. League-average is 34. Does this mean regression for Baltimore? Sort of. They are still in persistent decline since the Miami game, where they scored on 75% of their drives. Ravens’ drives last a long time and often end in and around the red zone. The caliber of opposing defenses has been mostly poor, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens against Seattle and then after the bye against New England. The Ravens defense is so, so bad. So bad that it made Baker Mayfield look good (but then again, so did Seattle’s, but realistically, it was Nick Chubb who looked good). When Marquise Brown plays, the offense becomes literally twice as good—no proof, but it’s probably true. For fantasy, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill should be stashed, as a tweak any part of Mark Ingram will unlock a timeshare between them.
The Steelers’s defense was actually one hybrid DB away from being excellent prior to the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade, a trade people viewed as a win-now move when really it just took a lot of the guesswork out of spending a first-round pick, and it took the Steelers from being a middling defense to being, as I said, excellent. They picked off Lamar Jackson three times in Week 5, and going into Week 7 Lamar only has five picks on the year. They sacked him five times, and he only has 16 sacks on the year. They made Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense look like dog shit until Hunter Henry made a couple great catches. The offense is troubling but not terrible. They’ve shown creativity and resiliency in the wake of losing two QBs. Think about what the Jets looked like minus two QBs, and then look at the Steelers. Since Roethlisberger went down, the Steelers have lost by 2 to Seattle, 4 to San Fran, and 3 to Baltimore. They’re schedule going forward is mostly easy with a couple blips, and they are as likely to win the wild card as any of the other fringe teams in the AFC. For fantasy, grab every piece you can going into the Miami game Week 8. Mason Rudolph might salvage Kennedy’s season, too. His one truly awful game was against the 49ers, who we all agree are elite.
The Browns suck again! The pass-blocking is atrocious, and Baker is playing scared. He looks like bad Jameis on every third-and-long. But the defense should be good once their starting corners finally return, and the running game can save them on offense if that happens. But I don’t think they’re well-coached or led by the right players, and the schedule is tough enough that they won’t come back from the 2-4 start to be any better than 8-8. Fantasy-wise, Chubb should play all day, and I’d probably play the matchups with everyone else. Again, the matchups aren’t good.
The Bengals are winless, sure, but they’re only the third worst team in the league, and it’s mostly because they’re playing with two fifths of an offensive line on a weekly basis. The AJ Green injury hurts but not like the lack of O-line. Fantasy-wise, this entire team is a desperation play.
AFC West
The Chiefs have no Mahomes for a month and will probably lose all four of those games. The fantasy assets worth starting are Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Even if you think the Chiefs will be run-heavy sans the One True QB, remember that a huge reason he’s hurt is that the line is banged up and not blocking well. The defense looked good against Joe Flacco but is definitely still bad. Joe Flacco is malaise in human form. And if you’re tempted to talk Ewing Theory about the Chiefs, please remember that a key component of the Ewing Theory is that the Ewing in question must be someone who draws so much attention that it creates a massive inefficiency. Mahomes is the efficiency in this offense, though I will say that putting him in with a nasty ankle injury made him more Ewing than not.
Raiders are 3-2 and will be leading this division by the time Mahomes comes back. Let that sink in. In the year of the Ewing Theory, the Raiders are the leading vote-getter for Best Ewing Theory Performance with Antonio Brown gone, though he was technically never on the team, if you think about it. So maybe no Ewing Theory, but Gruden Theory is strong. Whatever he is doing to convince the team they can win, it is working. They’ve defeated playoff contenders Indy and Chicago in consecutive weeks. In a month where they face (in order) Mahomes, the Vikings, Indy, and Chicago, the Raiders went 2-2. They can hang with good teams, and they might win the division if Mahomes’ injury lingers. The Chiefs are all-in, sure, but the Andrew Luck retirement will keep any team from rushing their franchise QB back.
The Chargers don’t have it together right now, but they probably will in a month, giving them enough time to challenge Oakland and KC for the division and wild card. Again, I think the Bills have a wild card spot locked up, so these three AFC West teams will fight for two playoff spots, and that second wild card spot will have the Steelers in the mix and probably either the Colts or Texans, too. The Chargers have half an offensive line and about half a defense, too. They don’t have a defensive line capable of playing meaningful rush defense. They just don’t have the body types required to both clog the space and shed the blocks the way a guy like Corey Liuget has in the past. Behind the line, their top linebacker is 36.5 years old, and their top DB is shelved for another month.
The Broncos can’t keep playing Eeyore at quarterback. Luckily, Drew Lock is nearing return, and he will play immediately. Okay, let’s not tilt after one bad game, but the schedule only gets worse from here. At most, the Broncos are winning three of them if the offense plays as lethargically as it did against KC Thursday night. The hope for Broncos fans should be that Joe Flacco had the flu or suffers from seasonal depression or something. The defense looks good, but a defense can’t be good for fantasy if they spend the entire game on the field. For fantasy, somehow all the offensive weapons should be still be started most weeks.
AFC South
The Texans and Colts share the top spot, and I think it’s pointless to talk about them in depth since we all agree they’re good and they have a bunch of fantasy guys worth playing. But here go anyway.
The Texans are a little more obvious. We love the QB and WRs but not the RBs, though the RBs are not worth the frustration. The TEs have had moments, but if multiple TEs are having moments, they aren’t ideal for our purposes.
The Colts are more nuanced. They rank near the top of the league in rush attempts, time of possession, and scoring percentage, which is something only an efficient offense can do. Jacoby Brissett gets sacked at the fourth-lowest rate in the league, and he averages two passing TDs per game. The problem is volume. Brissett has just seven more pass attempts than Marlon Mack has rush attempts, and that’s only because Marlon Mack missed half a game. Still, on a per-game basis, he’s the ninth best QB in fantasy and deserves your attention if you don’t have a top-ten guy. He’s on Brian’s team, but Brian won’t keep him through the bye week madness approaching.
The Colts will make the playoffs. The Texans will collapse. That’s my take.
The Jags and Titans share the bottom spot. Neither are making the playoffs, and most of the fantasy assets involved are so inconsistent that it’s tough to sell anyone on even rostering them, much less starting them.
Derrick Henry is a beast, and the Tannehill situation is meaningless to his production. Tannehill will start this week against LA, probably win, and then start next week against Tampa Bay. I predict Mariota will enter the game halfway through and make it close, thus winning the starting job back. Other than Henry, I’m not touching the Titans offense. The defense appears to be elite, but the competition makes me wonder. The rub is that they won’t get decent competition more than a couple weeks out of the entire year, so it’ll be a real disappointment when they miss the playoffs again. They lost 16-0 to Joe Flacco. Are we really comfortable assuming they’re anything but terrible?
Garnder Minshew is fun to root for. Leonard Fournette is a must-start every week. That’s about it. Anything you get from your Charks and Westbrooks and even IDPs is unexpected and unreliable.
NFC East
The Eagles I guess get the top spot, but the NFC East is back to being the weakest division in the NFL. What we don’t like about Wentz is that he doesn’t anticipate his receiver’s routes well, which is why Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert will always run the offense as long as they can catch bullets. The reason DeSean Jackson can thrive in this offense is that once he gets open downfield, he stays open so all you have to do is hit him. But he’s out, so the offense struggles while leaning on the run game, which just hasn’t been what you want, presumably because Jason Peters is either playing hurt or not at all, and backup Andre Dillard is an elite pass-blocker but still merely a project as run-blocker. The team wouldn’t be so bad, though, with the offense taking what opposing defenses give them, if only the defense was playing better. The run-defense is near the top of the league, but they basically haven’t had a secondary in most of their games. That changes this week. Both starting CBs return after long absences, and they do it against a Cowboys offense that just can’t figure out how to play offense. The Eagles are ascending, and by December, we will be talking about them being Super Bowl contenders again.
The Cowboys suck but not as bad as the two teams below them. Dak was really good against NYG, WAS, MIA, then he struggled against NO, GB, and NYJ. No shit. Looking at those two sides, which one do you think even an underachieving Philly falls on? Look, the season doesn’t come down to this week, but this division does come down to who wins the two DAL-PHI matchups, and it appears it will be Philly. There is a four-game stretch in Dallas’s future where they face (in order) the Pats, Bills, Bears, and Rams, and THEN they have their rematch against Philly. For fantasy, you can trust Zeke and probably a healthy Amari, but this trifecta of Dak, Gallup, and Witten we’re about to see try to exploit Philly’s supoosedly weak pass defense… yuck. The defense is tough to trust, too. Sell all Cowboys, if you want to come out ahead at the end of the year.
I kinda like the Giants on offense and defense, so much so that I am tempted to rank them above the Cowboys. Let’s say right now that they’re even. Dallas has the better roster, but the Giants have better coaches. In terms of trajectory, the Giants are ascending while the Boys are descending, so even if it doesn’t happen this year, you can start getting used to the idea of good Giants and bad Cowboys. Honestly even this year, the Giants have more valuable fantasy assets on offense, and the defense might become a legitimate option in the right matchups. Jones isn’t sexy, but if Barkley, Engram, Tate, and Shepard are sexy, then Jones must at least be worth a stream in the right matchup.
The Skins are trash and cursed and not worth my time.
NFC North
This division is tough to sort out. I’m going to go in reverse order to hold off having to make a case for who’s best.
The Lions are the worst, though, and it’s not even all their fault. In terms of what’s fair, they should be 5-0. They led Arizona by 18 before eventually tying. They led the Chiefs that whole game until the ridiculous Kerryon fumble changed everything. And they would’ve beaten the Pack if the game weren’t rigged. But look, we have to remember that there’s a little bit of theater at play in professional sports. I believe that anyone can win, but I believe that there are more obstacles placed in the way of some teams than others. Nobody but Lions fans want the Lions to win, so unless the Lions can survive overwhelming adversity on a weekly basis, they are doomed to finish in the immediate vicinity of .500 for all eternity. For fantasy, they have a good offense and defense and matchups against bad teams or teams nobody cares about should go in their favor. Coming off back-to-back fixed losses, and going against a kind of who cares team in Minnesota, I think the Lions will get some bounces in their favor and win if they try to, and I wish I would have thought this before benching Kerryon for Damien Williams.
The Bears are the second-worst even though their defense is still the best. Teams without quarterbacks can’t win against teams with quarterbacks on a consistent basis. The system has become too efficient. The Bears are the NFL equivalent of a Moneyball team in baseball. They mask a lack of offensive firepower with an emphasis on strategery and defensive efficiency. For fantasy, you want Allen Robsinon, but only of Chase Daniel is starting. Otherwise, you only want the RBs, and you don’t even want them bad enough to start them unless the matchup is sweet. The defense is, of course, elite.
The Vikings are having a weird year. Dalvin Cook is a potential MVP, and Stefon Diggs is the subject of trade rumors. Kirk Cousins is proving they might as well have kept Case Keenum and used the extra money on keeping the defense super-deep. The Vikings haven’t been hurting or anything, but those losses to the Packers and Bears were avoidable if the defense were in total shutdown mode the way the Bears usually are. I’m not… interested in this team. I don’t think anyone but Dalvin and Thielen are reliable on a weekly basis, and I don’t think run-first, defense-oriented teams are all that fun to watch.
The Packers are 5-1, so they’d have to really suck to miss the playoffs in the NFC. Even if Minnesota leapfrogs them for the division crown, the Pack still only has to contend with Carolina, (fingers crossed) Tampa Bay, and maybe the Rams for the second wild card—I’m giving the first WC spot to whoever finished second in the West between San Fran and Seattle. I don’t like the Packers, though. I don’t like Aaron Rodgers always having an excuse or a reason to gloat, especially when the whole thing is fixed for him to win anyway so long as the rest of the team doesn’t choke it away. Remember, even if the game is fixed, it can’t be so fixed that the league doesn’t have plausible deniability. It’s like the boxing match in Snatch. Sometimes the fix goes wrong and you run (or in the NFL’s case, make another rule they can easily manipulate to their advantage). I don’t like smug people, and I don’t root for their success. I’m not happy about the Davante Adams injury, but I am pleased to see Rodgers having to prove himself. In fantasy, I want no part of this team outside of Jimmy Graham.
NFC South
The Saints have won every game in which the starting QB has finished the game, and they would be 6-0 if the starting QB had finished every game he started, regardless of who that QB is. The offense is too smart, and the defensive pressure is too fierce. The combination of Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore is just the tip of the iceberg for this defense, and it’s shocking we didn’t see this coming before the season. Add in budding stars like Vonn Bell, Marcus Williams, and Marcus Davenport, not to mention all the solid support around them, and yeah, this team should win all of their games. They might go 15-1. This Bears game this week (sans Kamara, no less) and the 49ers game down the road are the reasons they’ll probably finish 13-3, but they’ll get the bye and maybe even homefield if someone can just stop Shanafrancisco already. Fantasy-wise, I already own Michael Thomas so I won’t be adding any other pieces on offense, but you know I would have kept Vonn Bell if Jamal Adams hadn’t become available, and even Latavius really tempted me this week.
The Panthers have the only legitimate non-QB MVP leading the charge right now, and I think it’s too much for teams to have to shut him down and stay solid against crossing patterns from those blazing receivers AND keep in mind Greg Olsen is ready to leak-out at a moment’s notice (and that’s not even mentioning the excellent defense). This is the real Ewing Theory team, as the Panther’s insistence that Cam Newton remain the starting QB hamstrung them last season. The thing about Cam Newton is that he’s always been Cam-first. He can’t actually give up the crown to McCaffrey and feel satisfied. It’s not in his DNA. So if Cam comes back to start this season, I think this team’s in trouble. But if Kyle Allen stays in all year, they are gripping tight to that second wild card spot and not letting go.
This makes things difficult for the Bucs. Somehow, they stayed in the Panthers game despite giving up seven turnovers, and by “somehow” I mean because the defense is so damn good. Even against an offense you can’t reasonably be expected to stop, the Bucs defense held up despite having to be on the field way too often and for too long at times, too. I’m annoyed that we’re 2-4, relieved I don’t have to watch us play this weekend, and grateful we’re playing Ryan Tannehill after our bye. I’m not stoked we didn’t make the Jalen Ramsey deal. I thought that was exactly what we needed. I’m also still salty we didn’t make the Minkah Fitzpatrick deal since we needed that, too. I don’t like Marcus Peters, but I like the price the Ravens paid for him. I don’t see us making a deadline deal, but if we’re 3-4 and the offense looks good against Tennessee’s vaunted defense, then maybe GM Jason Licht feels the pressure and takes necessary action to play for the playoffs right fucking now. Fantasy-wise, I have my guy, but I won’t lie: I’d love to have Godwin, too. The defense might not be fantasy-elite, but it will keep us in games, and that’s really reassuring—not as reassuring: Todd Bowles’s name floating around articles about next year’s head coaches.
The Falcons suck. Matt Ryan sucks. The defense is historically bad, and the head coach will be fired soon. The only reason the coach isn’t already fired is that management might believe stability is their only chance against the Rams and Seahawks before that bye week. But between now and two weeks from now, Dan Quinn will be out of a job, and my hope and prayer is that the Falcons promote Raheem Morris to interim head coach. The alternative (and you should already know this, Bucs fans) is that Dirk Koetter will be the head coach for not one but two games against the Bucs this season. Granted, that’s kind of the outcome we want, but in the unlikely event that we lose, I would rather lose to Raheem Morris any day. He deserves it. Fantasy-wise, I want dudes on this team named Jones and nothing else. Hooper is great, but it’s because of Koetter that he’s great, and I can’t condone it.
NFC West
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC right now, but the best teams they’ve played are the Bucs and Rams, so I’m unwilling to say they’ll stay this hot. I think Carolina in Week 8 will be the real test, which is just depressing. The fact is that a 5-0 is really hard to undo, and the 49ers still get to play Washington, Arizona twice, and Atlanta. I’m fine calling that nine wins. So all they have to do is win one game against a good team (SEA, BAL, NO, LAR, GB) to make the playoffs in a weak NFC. The offense is mostly RBs, but Kittle is still very desirable in a TE wasteland. It’s surprising the DL doesn’t have more ownership. It’s fair if you think Nick Bosa in unlikeable, but DeForest Buckner has plenty of good games in store.
The Seahawks aren’t all that good honestly. Their biggest achievement so far is that they have stayed mostly healthy. The offensive line isn’t much better than it’s been, but the unit has gelled over the course of a few years, and the Mike Iupati signing is underrated (though I think he’s missed time with injuries). Regardless, you don’t have to block that well to get Russell Wilson and Chris Carson going. A weird benefit of having a bad line is that you get used to having to do more yourself, and so when the line blocks okay, it feels like great blocking and suddenly you can play like a superhero. Note: I don’t like the Seahawks’ offense; I like Russ and Chris. I like Tyler okay, but Tyler could go down and the team would find a way. It’s a bummer Dissly is gone, but it’s no surprise somebody already scooped Luke Willson. Russell Wilson knows how to find the TE in space.
The Rams are something. Jared Goff looks like a big mistake, and it looks like the Rams doubled down instead of triaging. Now they have 40 mil sunk into the QB position, an upcoming 20 mil sunk into starting CB, Donald making 20 mil, Gurley making 15, Cooks making 15, Woods making like 10 at least, and my god that is a list of names but it isn’t close to being a full team. That’s reportedly like 60% of their cap, and they still need to pay 40 other guys. THAT’S ONE PERCENT PER GUY. If the salary cap is 200 mil, okay, that’s 2 mil per guy, but that’s only feasible with rookie deals, and rookie deals are only valuable if you get good rookies, and to get good rookies, you probably should keep your good picks, right? As opposed to trading your first pick every year for five years? Honestly, it’s probably fine. The Rams will get comp picks for Joyner, Saffold, and Suh in 2020, which will probably outweigh the raw value of that first-rounder, especially if the Rams make the playoffs, which they definitely should with this roster BUT WAIT ROSTERS DON’T MAKE PLAYOFFS, WINS DO so at 3-3 with a not-hard schedule, they are in decent position, especially since they miraculously have the tiebreaker over Carolina (but not Tampa!). Hm, okay. Aaron Donald and Corey Littleton and Jalen Ramsey can win you games. They can do enough to keep Jared Goff playing in neutral if not positive gamescript. I really wanted the Rams to be out, but they’re not, especially not after they win their next two (ATL, CIN).
The Cardinals are fun, but they’re not going anywhere this year. They’re only 2-3-1, but I don’t think they can realistically take the wild card from any of the other West teams, much less Minnesota or Carolina. For fantasy, get you some Kyler, some Larry, a little Kirk, and keep starting whoever they’re starting at RB. Somehow the kicker is an elite fantasy option, so hold tight, Oliver, unless someone offers you a 2020 pick, I guess yolo.
Last week was rough for me. I started off Thursday night talking trash about Kennedy’s bench receiver, only to see my starting receiver go down after gaining just seven yards. The Josh Gordon gamble was already suspect; now it’s a clear mistake, but I don’t know how to come back. Cutting bait is my first instinct, so I’m going to Costanza it for a while and hold, when what I really want to do is trade Gordon, but how can you trade someone with no value who’s not even playing. I mean, technically Gordon is still more valuable than AJ Green, but in terms of perception, Gordon appears to be the second or third option in the passing game on a run-first offense operating almost exclusively in positive gamescript. So I can’t sell that, not for anything other than a flier, and who’s trading a good flier for an injured WR in a league where Kennedy has 12 (including a Patriot) if you want one.
So anyway, I was pretty sure I was going to lose my matchup, so watching the Bucs get embarrassed in their only game with national attention this year was adding insult to injury. (Actually, okay, both of the Bucs national spots have been against Carolina, but this is definitely the one people will remember.) Not only did the Bucs lose, but I have this Jameis Winston jersey I seem to wear every time they lose, and I often wish I had gotten a Mike Evans jersey instead and kind of can’t believe I didn’t, but I can’t give up on Jameis until the Bucs do, and even then, if Jameis is starting for a good coach (cough Belichick) then I might have to invest again.
Lamar Jackson saved me again, though. Granted, he didn’t put the Bengals away, but it was raining and shit, and he had another goddamn tipped interception (three of his five on the year have been tipped or bobbled by the receiver), but when you rush for 150 yards, I really don’t dwell on the details. Before you ask, yes he led the league in yards and yards per attempt last week, and yes I’m ecstatic reliving that realization. Otherwise, I had a good game. Nobody over 20, but almost everyone above 10, fifth in overall scoring. I feel good about the year so far.
But now I have to play Tim, and I already did something stupid, namely playing Damien Williams over Kerryon Johnson, which is just so fucking cute in a week where it was important not to be. Now, okay, I know six teams are 4-2 and two are 3-3, so there aren’t any clear-cut leaders yet, but according to the standings, Tim and I are #1 and #2, so if fantasy football is important, than this matchup is important. I think Tim feels it, too. He made more moves this week than he usually does, and he even benched Khalil Mack in favor of a nice matchup for Frank Clark (which he nailed, to the tune of 11 points) and a sort of revenge play of Deion Jones against me. I have a weird affinity for Deion Jones, so the psychic value of this play is in the right place. Tim is in my head. I’m psyched out, and I’m going down. I’ve even considered playing the Raiders defense against Tim’s Green Bay Aarons, but I know in my heart these things aren’t connected, and I really don’t believe in the Raiders like that (although maybe I should!).
And like I said, six of us are 4-2, which is definitely the first time anything like this has happened. Mathematically, I don’t know how it all shakes out in terms of people’s playoff odds, but I’m pretty sure it raises the playoff odds of the 1-5 teams that there’s no clear leader. Like, if all the spots are still available, then there’s a higher likelihood for anyone to get one. I wonder if numbers would bare that out or if that’s a logical fallacy. More open seats definitely presents as opportunity, but is that just wishful thinking? Either way, 1-5 teams, you should fight hard and not trade away your studs just yet, and not just because I don’t have the capital to afford them, but because… pride? Pride.
Week 5
24 Corey, Shelby
23 Tim
22 Coleman
21 Kennedy
20 Cam, Oliver
19 Brian, Spe
18 Doak, Evan
17 Sean
Week 6
30 Coleman (ties league record)
27 Brian
23 Sean
21 Doak
19 Oliver
18 Cam, Corey, Spe
13 Evan, Tim
12 Kennedy, Shelby
Season Total
146 Coleman
131 Brian
128 Doak
120 Cam
119 Kennedy
117 Evan, Spe
113 Corey, Sean
111 Oliver
106 Tim
95 Shelby
NFL Leaders
40 Christian McCaffrey
38 Chris Godwin
37 Chris Carson
36 Zeke Elliot, Leonard Fournette
34 Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram, Austin Ekeler
33 David Johnson
31 Marlon Mack
30 Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Michael Thomas
29 Travis Kelce, Carlos Hyde
QB Leaders
24 Lamar Jackson
14 Kyler Murray
12 Deshaun Watson
11 Josh Allen
10 Dak Prescott
9 Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Jacoby Brissett
8 Daniel Jones
7 Patrick Mahomes
TE Leaders
29 Kelce
23 Austin Hooper
21 Mark Andrews
18 Evan Engram, George Kittle
17 Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Greg Olsen
Free Agent Leaders (as of 10/19)
17 Gus Edwards
13 Cole Beasley, Preston Williams
12 Peyton Barber, Ito Smith, John Ross (IR), Chris Conley
Gross.
As for last week’s recaps, I recall a lot of people getting steamrolled by their opponents. Coleman, Spencer, and Tim each won by at least 60, but none of the six matchups felt particularly close after the afternoon games on Sunday. Brian ended up losing by less than five, but it felt impossible he would actually beat Sean on Monday with Brian playing Golladay and Sean playing Stafford. Golladay did his doodliest, posting 121 yards and five first downs, surpassing Stafford by seven already; getting another five seems impossible without rushing or return yardage. Good effort, though. The only slightly reasonable way Brian would have won was by dropping Golladay, then adding and starting Jamaal Williams. But let’s be real: we’re all happier this way.
Oliver and Cameron would have been in a close game if not for Stefon Diggs. Next year, we’re going to be looking at Diggs’ WR20 finish pre-draft and someone’s going to take him too early again. I want to take a moment to remind you that dude averaged 10.1 yards per catch last season, which (with volume) puts him more in range of a great TE than even a good WR, but if you get one 40 from him, do you really care what he does most weeks? Isn’t the glory of Week 6 worth more than the individual wins you’re sacrificing otherwise? I hope he asked for a trade, though, because that YPC average isn’t indicative of Diggs’ skill-set or talent; it’s definitely the offense. By the way, you know its’ anomalous outlier time when the two top players in a given week are Stefon Diggs and Kirk Cousins, and the next best non-QB is a defense. Doak, stop trying to make it happen. K.
What else? What else? I can’t help but lean on my assertion that there’s not much to panic about from week to week. Most of the coaches in the NFL are good. They make adjustments between each week that buoy the good dudes who busted last week. I mean, I talked about how Jared Goff sucks, but even he will bounce back just from scheduling against crap teams. I don’t like the QB change for Tennessee, not because Tannehill will be worse but because it just doesn’t matter, and I’d rather ride one inconsistent QB than two. Just look at last year’s Bucs. If I weren’t a Bucs fan, I would’ve said they should pick one QB and stick with him, even if that QB was Fitzmagic. Your goal as a leader should be to limit the controversy to a minimum. As a fantasy manager, this means not playing too many guys who will be on the field at the same time, unless they can work in concert with each other. It also means not hedging a defense against your own QB or starting the fringe WRs of the opposing QB. I know it feels like there aren’t a lot of fish in the sea, but there are. Okay, I just checked, and it turns out there aren’t, not in free agency anyway, unless you somehow could have predicted big games for Brandon Bolden and Jaron Brown. Moving on.
The Week 7 Matchups have intrigue, as I kind of alluded to already.
#1 Bench Point Hoarders vs. #2 Poor Little Rickless Bastards
Weird flex benching Khalil Mack, but fine. Wag that dick in my face. I am unfazed by dick-swinging. All I can do anyway is play my best players and hope for the best. Am I Nervous that Pete Carroll has a plan to neutralize Lamar? Yeah! Am I ever going to get over starting the weakest link of a RBBC over the unquestioned starter for a run-first team? Never! But Royce Freeman has proven to be reliable, and I have horses at most positions. Furthermore, I think the Patriots D has gotten soft playing weak competition. I doubt they finish first one the week (that’ll be the 49ers vs. WAS), and I’m okay if they score in the 10-15 range. I can withstand that. Granted, I need a big game from Michael Thomas, and it’s hard to imagine that happening with Kamara out and thus more attention on Thomas. But I have hope. Faith, eh… but hope, I have. I hope Gruden solves Aaron Rodgers and hold Tim’s Aaron’s below a combined 20 FP. I also hope our flex matchup of Singletary vs. Gore ends up being the most exciting part of this affair, though I guess I also hope our matchup comes down to Pats-Jets on Monday night, since I have two Jets to his one Pat. Still, I think Tim will win, but I feel like it’s anyone’s game.
#3 Fart69 vs. #5 My Fellow Kamaracans
Brian draws Cameron at an ideal time. Even if Kamara were to play, Chicago is a tough matchup for anyone. Having Beckham on bye is nice, too. Even though Becks is underachieving, he’s better than Duke Williams. Who and why, are my questions for this Duke Williams decision. I’m also pinching my chin thinking about Darrell Henderson. If I were Brian, I’d feel uneasy. I’d feel like I’m being setup for something. Maybe Cam has a late switch in mind, or maybe he knows something. More likely he knows nothing, and Brian rolls to victory mostly because there’s nothing good going for Cam. Jamaal Williams probably won’t be worth starting twice in a row, and Cam’s best players appear to be Wil Lutz and the Saints defense. I am clearly not feeling Dallas this week, as evidenced by my decision to start the Eagles D. Brian has the advantage of not having to start Jameis coming off that shitshow, and while Brissett doesn’t have a cake matchup, he was the best QB available and on any other team would push Jameis out of that starting spot. Brian’s hurting without Godwin in the lineup, but he’s had WRs to spare. Now, would I start Michael Gallup against Dak Prescott? With Cooper banged up, Gallup is technically the top target in this offense, so like Golladay last week, Gallup could easily outscore Dak if the game goes a certain way. But since Cooper is playing, I have to play this by that fringe-WR rule I mentioned earlier. But also this whole idea is a fallacy, and you should just start the guy you think will score the most points, or at least give you more than most on average. But assuming you’ll watch the game, it’s a rough experience rooting against the QB and for the WR all night. I’d give Melvin Gordon another shot, even against a tough Titans D. The thing is, none of it matters. Brian could start nobody in the flex spot and probably still win. This is not a reverse jinx. I think Brian will win easily, and I think he would have won even easier if he hadn’t dropped the KC defense Thursday morning.
#7 Squanchers vs. #8 Hot Garbage
This is the other matchup where each team has the same record. In this case, it’s 3-3, meaning no matter the outcome, it signals something about the trajectory of your team. A loss means you have a losing record. A win gives you a winning record. This isn’t the beginning of a George Carlin bit. It’s just the reality of the situation. Whoever wins will feel a little better than usual after a win, but whoever loses will be able to lean on the comfortable perch of probably being alone at 3-4 while Spencer and Sean drop to 2-5 rather than rise.
Oh, the actual matchup? Yeah, we can do that.
Coleman is on a heater. Christian McCaffrey’s bye week naturally ends that. Coleman has plenty of good players, so a loss without McCaffrey will likely end up meaning nothing. He stands to win more than he loses, even if it’s by just one game. My advice for Coleman is to embrace the unlikelihood of winning and just enjoy your Sunday. My advice for Shelby is to start Kyler Murray, but it’s not real advice because my real advice is to name a starting QB and stick with him. But if she’s getting antsy to start Kyler, especially against the Giants, I can understand why. The Ravens’ name disguises the reality of the situation, which is that their defense is awful right now. Even with the Peters trade, they won’t get their shit together until after the bye week. I will say, looking forward, there is a brutal future in the Russ-Kyler combo. Weeks 9-11, Russ plays TB, SF, bye; Kyler plays SF, TB, SF; so you’ll probably never play Kyler this year, unless you play him this week. But still, don’t do it. This Kyler pick was always a stash (an assumption on my part), and you can’t give in to the urge to play him before he’s ready. What’s 40 points? It’s insignificant this week. Coleman is playing the Houston offense against the Colts, and the Colts have been prepping for this game for two weeks. They rested most of their starters Friday because they’re just that ready. Similarly, Shelby’s team is just ready to regress toward the mean in first downs and scoring, while Coleman’s is heading for the same fate, only backwards. No further details necessary. Again, not a reverse jinx. (Which, sadly, is when things really go the reverse of what I predict ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
#10 Jerryboree vs. #12 I Eat My Own Poop
Have you ever seen pecking party? The weird thing about this matchup is that it should be one of the higher scoring games of the week. Oliver picked up Daniel Jones to troll Brian, but he should slide him into that starting spot against the Cardinals’ potent offense. Sure, Patrick Peterson returns for Arizona and seems likely to intercept Jones once, but the three TDs will offset that minor inconvenience. Is Jimmy G going to throw three TDs against a Skins team that will let San Fran run all over them and score on defense and shit, or will the 49ers just run it 50 times and not risk anything unnecessarily? 28-3, boys, that’s the number haunting every Shanahan lead from now on. I’m into Oliver’s confidence in Miles Sanders. Okay, it might just be that he feels like Sanders is the best of a rough bunch, but I choose to view it as confidence, and it’s worth it to think that way because the Sanders breakout is imminent. Sean starts Josh Allen against the Fish Tank, and there is a 10% chance that Dolphins’ head coach Brian Flores knows exactly how to stop Allen. The Pats coaches should all know the secret to stopping him, and it even appears that most of them do. But the players are so bad that it shouldn’t matter. The other issue for Allen is the same one for Jimmy: why throw the ball at all when you can just run and play defense and win by 20? The rest of Sean’s guys have good-to-great matchups except Mike Williams, but Sean could easily pivot to Latavius or Lazard between now and kickoff. I hope Oliver wins. I want desperation in the lower ranks.
#4 Mr. Lunas vs. #11 Mortytown Locos
Sadly this game has no surface-level intrigue, so we have to do work now. Thursday was rough for Kennedy, with his kicker getting one attempt and missing it (and it was only an XP attempt), but it wasn’t too rough. Courtland Sutton did what he do, and Phillip Lindsay didn’t. Sleeper predicts a close game, which is way more than I can say or my matchup. Lev Bell hasn’t lived up to his pick, and Nick Chubb is on bye. The best thing Evan has going is the Cards-Giants game, with the likely top targets on each side of the ball. These aren’t the words you want to read if you want to get pumped about your matchup, unless you’re on the other side. Kennedy has a super-plus matchup of rested Josh Jacobs vs. Green Bay’s weak rush defense, and he’s got matchup-proof Chris Carson rocking against a subpar defense. Matt Ryan is playing a Rams defense that felt like it needed to trade two first round pick and the some to improve its defense. Ramsey joins a secondary that just lost three starters in one week. While Aaron Donald is tough, and Ramsey can lock down Julio, there’s still plenty of Matt Ryan magic that can happen with Ridley, Sanu, and Hooper, not to mention Freeman leaking out of the backfield for five-to-ten targets. Darren Fells is a completely ridiculous TE choice, but I really can’t say who’d be better. Kyle Rudolph on a whim? I know I’d prefer to see Golden Tate in the lineup somehow. Still, with a bunch of bas scores on Evan’s side, you can afford to miss a few calls.
#6 Team 4 vs. #9 Live-Action Szechuan Sauce
Is it any surprise that during the week of his Minshew cash game that Spencer should draw the 6-9 matchup against Corey? And even with Mahomes down early, Spencer might eke this one out. Fun fact: Spencer has scored and “allowed” the same number of points: 947. 947 is also close to 100 points more than Corey has scored at 854. Two other teams (Shelby and Cam) have scored exactly 854 points, and all three are above Spencer in the standings. Spencer is fourth in scoring, and Mahomes is to thank for a lot of that, so this loss hurts bad. At least Mahomes put up 10 before leaving. It keeps Spencer competitive this week. Corey should definitely play Jared Goff, though I can understand why he wouldn’t. Obviously, it’s because he so earnestly reveres my advice about picking a start and sticking with him. Still, I feel like this is an exception. The Falcons aren’t just a good matchup; they’re the absolute best. Even with Mahomes’s ten-spot, Sleeper has the matchup at a square 50-50 win percentage. Barkley’s back, Kupp has that sweet Falcons matchup, and even though he’s down to his last WR, Spencer’s team looks good. The Pats matchup against the Jets isn’t good. Brady isn’t going to flame out, but do you really want to hitch your wagon to a division matchup on Monday night, for the road team? Am I in your head yet? I’m cool if you win; I just want Spe to be competitive because a Mahomes-Barkley combo should be in the playoffs regardless of the specifics. Of all Corey’s offensive starters, only Joe Mixon has a good matchup, and a good matchup is relative for Mixon because the worst offensive line still loses to any defensive line. The 2.5 you got from Kareem Jackson with your actual starter Jordan Poyer on the bench doesn’t help. Ultimately this matchup is the shitshow it looked like on Thursday.
I had a good time. We should do this more often. Good luck this week, everyone (except you, Tim).
