Since the inception of keepers, there’s been just a hint of confusion as to how to play with them. Some people wake up in August and are like, Who am I allowed to keep? Others (including the creator of the rule!) aren’t sure which rounds correspond to which keepers (4-9 is early; 10+ is late). But there’s a select few who have been churning and burning that dollar bill until it’s unrecognizable. Here’s a brief history of the keeper rule’s impact on trades:
2018 Pre-Draft
Kennedy makes the rule; the league votes to implement immediately.
(I believe I have the chronology of the following trades correct)
Kennedy trades the 12th overall to Oliver for Kareem Hunt.
I trade the 17th overall to Corey for Keenan Allen.
Evan trades 61 to Coleman for Josh Gordon.
Sean trades 25 to Shelby for Jerick McKinnon.
Sean trades 23 to Kennedy for Christian McCaffrey.
Coleman trades 7 and 186 to Sean for McCaffrey and Alex Collins.
I trade 41 to Coleman for Alex Collins.
Shelby trades 33 to Oliver for Stefon Diggs.
(If I missed anything, I am sorry but also over it already.)
2018 Season
Only two trades that I recall were done strictly for keeper value, and I’m only sure about one of them, and that one involved me.
Oliver trades Nick Chubb to Evan for Robert Woods
(I don’t remember the keeper value being more than gravy on top for either side)
I trade Chris Godwin to Brian for Drew Brees
(and people get upset over what looks like Brian giving me a QB for basically nothing because we’re boys, BUT OH HOW WRONG YOU ARE AND OH HOW DUMB I FEEL NOW)
I trade Brees to Oliver for Aaron Rodgers
(I feel like Oliver did this to potentially keep Brees, but I don’t know for sure)
2019 Pre-Draft
Crickets
2019 Season
Sean trades Devonta Freeman to Spencer for AJ Green
On the surface, it looks like a fair trade. Freeman is performing decently. Before yesterday’s explosion, he was hovering around RB30, I think. He’d had one touchdown in five weeks, is all I know for sure. But at least he’s playing right now, which is a massive upgrade over AJ Green, who hasn’t practiced in two months. Freeman offers help right now, while Green might pay off down the road. Or way down the road. Even if Sean doesn’t make the playoffs, AJ Green can be kept. Devonta Freeman turns to dust after Week 16. So Sean has done something that I thought would take until a team had five or six losses, which is to start thinking about next year. He’s not giving up. Sure, he traded Devonta Freeman ahead of a cake matchup that will end up being Freeman’s best game fo the year, and Sean made the trade needing a win badly, but I don’t think he threw the game; I think he traded Freeman at peak-value.
Often we think of selling high as taking a guy who has an explosive week and trading him, but most of us are too smart to think, “Yep, he scores 30 points a game now. That’s just what he does and there’s no debating it.” I was going to make an argument about how the real time to sell high is right before the explosion (as if we know these things), but that isn’t exactly what happened, and I don’t want to give Sean that much credit. If he wins tonight, it’ll be barely, and it’ll also be because Brian’s team performed way under expectation. I also have to say that no one is selling high for injured players, especially injured players who have an injury history the length of AJ Green’s. Sean sold maybe for fair value, but maybe he sold someone he couldn’t keep for someone he could. Even if AJ Green doesn’t come back until Week 12 or something crazy, he’s not retiring. Even if Sean doesn’t want him, somebody will. And when we look at Sean’s early keepers for next summer, all we see is Cam Newton, Mike Williams, Bobby Wagner, and Matt Breida. I think AJ Green trumps everyone, but Breida has some cachet in that run-heavy offense attached to an elite defense (speaking as if what we know today is what we’ll know in the future, of course). At worst, AJ Green recoups the fourth round pick Spencer spent, only it goes to Sean now.
But this is where we get to why I’m really writing. Sean trading Spencer a player who will turn to dust for a player who will at least become worth a pick. So who’s to say we can’t cut to the chase and trade an expiring player for a future pick?
With Oliver’s permission, I’m revealing some thing that some of us know and some of us don’t. Oliver is open to trading for future picks. That’s not a secret. He posted that in the general thread on slack and possibly even on the tradeblock thread. The secret is that he’s already discussed trades where Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are on the table as long as future picks are also on the table. Now, things get tricky. Tanking is not fun. Well, maybe in Miami, but there’s a reason no Dolphin has cracked a starting roster in our league. Tanking is akin to not playing the game. I have to say that upfront. I’m pretty sure Oliver won’t tank. I’ve cautioned him against it, mostly for the optics. But I have other thoughts, as well, and here they come, with no prior organization.
1. Not everyone has the time.
It’s why we see some people trade more than others and some people make more roster moves than others. Some people miss out on the guys they want on waivers. Others are patient with what they have. Others yet don’t make moves until they need to. There is a certain threshold of activity you have to rise above in order to be competitive, but it’s not all that high. In a week, you need to spend maybe 30 minutes looking at whole gets touches on offense, who gets tackles on defense, and you need to have a general sense of which teams are good or bad. Beyond that, it’s probably 85% blind luck and 15% having a hunch and being right. But there are weeks where that 30 minutes is, like, impossible to come by because you’re a grown-up with responsibilities. A good trade takes time to think about what you want, what other people want, and then it takes time to talk it through so you can meet in the middle. Most deals die because one person isn’t as committed as the other. Basic psychology tells us that we see less risk in holding, and if we’re indifferent because we’re busy, then we’re tending to hold.
2. This is, fundamentally, a season-long game.
You can’t expect a 3-3 team to give up as much as a 5-1 team. This argument made more sense before parity reigned and rained on all the 4-1 teams this weekend. And either way, just because it’s inefficient doesn’t mean a team won’t do it. Let’s look further down the road, though. Our trade deadline is Week 13, which means we are basically halfway there. Let’s double some records, for color. Let’s say Coleman is 6-6 and Oliver is 2-10 and Tim is 8-4. Brian is in the playoffs at that point, and Shelby is one win away with one final melee week. If she can get a stud player, he can probably propel her into the playoffs and maybe even help her make a run. So maybe Shelby sells out harder than Brian for that deal. But then what happens is that creates a market inefficiency that not everyone will go in for.
You know what: this got confusing.
Suddenly, I’m thinking it’s not all that crazy for anyone to make these deals at any time. There is an argument to be made that you’re intentionally creating a massive imbalance, but that ignores all the evidence that all we’re doing is gambling. Now, I will stand firm and say that a league that rewards first downs makes these elite players a little more elite, a little more solid. But Mike Evans has posted a fat fucking zero already, and multiple QB injuries have made certain typically-solid WRs suddenly unplayable (here’s looking at Juju). Todd Gurley got injured, and suddenly the Rams all suck (granted, against a supposedly elite defense). Nothing is guaranteed. And even if it were, you still have to pay a lot to get these elite players since there are maybe, what, twenty of them, and hopefully half of them are on competitive teams still competing in Week 13.
I guess all I’m saying is: be responsible. If you’re trading away star players, think about the rest of us a little bit and don’t be such a goddamn capitalist.
Ah, it’s time that I be fair to Oliver. He described some potential trade parameters for what he is willing to take in exchange for game-changing talent.
So if I wanted, say, DeAndre Hopkins (because I do), I would think a fair trade by Oliver’s standards might look something like this:
I get:
Hopkins
Oliver gets:
Brees (late keep)
Josh Gordon (early keep)
2020 5th Round Pick
Brees helps Oliver compete for the #1 pick in December. Gordon is nothing if not full of potential. I understand these assets aren’t enough for an elite WR, so I put a future pick in play. All of the assets I’m offering carry into next year.
Oliver is laughing right now because this offer is so weak. Sure, Brees and Gordon have keeper status, but that doesn’t mean they’re serious considerations. Oliver’s early keepers for 2020 are Robert Woods, James White, and Aaron Donald, and his late options so far are… Jimmy G and maybe the Bills D. So here we have a little bit of a selling point. Gordon is no Robert Woods, but he’s worth having in the mix if something happens to Woods between now and next August, and Brees is… well, he’s Drew Brees (okay, even I’m not convinced). So maybe I have to increase the value of the pick by a round or two? But either way, I’m sending the above offer to Oliver and hoping he counters. I think those players plus a third-rounder is fair for Hopkins, considering in this hypothetical I’m making the deal in a month or so, so I’m only paying for about five weeks of Hopkins here.
If you don’t get anything from this note, that’s fine. It’s a mess. I’m a mess. But please think before you trade away your future assets. Think about those of us whose only future assets are geriatrics and recovering drug addicts. Think also about what happens if you trade away a superstar for like a future fourth just because something is better than nothing. A fourth-round pick isn’t all that much better than nothing. Competing for the first overall pick is better than tanking in exchange for a handful of mid-rounders. Just ask Spen—okay, but ask Coleman, though! Would you rather have Christian McCaffrey or the two-fer of Allen Robinson and DJ Moore. Ask Brian, would you rather have Dalvin Cook or two-fer Kenny Golladay and Rashaad Penny? Spencer would still choose Saquon over his 4/5 picks, Duke Johnson and AJ Green. Hell, he would probably choose Saquon over a combo of Duke Johnson and Devonta Freeman, too!
And now imagine if you made that deal, and the person you made the deal with gets a championship, and you get—at best—Allen Robinson. Now, okay, remembering that it’s all just dressed-up gambling, and you could end up with the first pick and these extra assets if things break right, and okay, I guess go for it, but we’ll all hate you and no one will trade with you for a couple years, and we’ll make constant reference to it while you’re finishing 6-7 in 2020, too.
BUT THE MAIN POINT of this extra note is this:
People are trading good players for future assets, and I am bringing this to your attention so that you don’t feel jilted if a few of these trades go down without you having any idea these options were on the table. Every player is available for a price, unless that player’s name is Mike Evans.
OOH! Okay, let’s have one more example. Michael Thomas is my best expiring asset, and if my season went down in flames, I would probably trade Michael Thomas for future picks. If you want Michael Thomas for the playoffs, I want that Hopkins deal: a quality keeper RB or WR and a 2020 4th-rounder.
And finally, if you trade a future pick, you have to pay your dues for that season. Oliver has already paid $100 in advance for 2020 and 2021 (and he did this in August).
This was longer than expected and also not comprehensive, but you get what you pay for when you’re your own editor.
