This week’s note is an attempt to write a quick one that doesn’t suck. I’ve been vaguely ill and super tired all week. I’ve been watching football and being a nerd all over pro-football-reference, but still, it’s been an off-week. I barely remember last Sunday except for Lamar Jackson’s deep pick, Mike Evans skip-spin celebration (which drew kudos from LeBron James), and Vonn Bell’s two fumble recoveries to make him the #1 DB on the week and the year. What else? I remember the Bucs scoring a bunch of points and Chris Godwin scoring 40 on Brian’s bench and Brian losing by more than 40 anyway. Leonard Fournette had 225 yards, somewhat because he has talent but mostly because when Gardner Minshew hands off the ball, he first imbues it with all of his power Space Jam style, similar to how, when you have Gardner Minshew on your fantasy team, the point isn’t that he scores points in your starting lineup (ever); the point is that because Gardner Minshew is on your team, your starting lineup scores points. Um, the Broncos lost Bradley Chubb for the year, so Corey lost his DL cash-cow (seriously, Chubb was one of like four DLs above 10 ppg on the year). The Dolphins had a lead for a moment, which is bigger news than you might think, not because the Dolphins will take this momentum and roll it into multiple wins but because the Dolphins come out of their Week 5 bye week facing the true worst team in the league, the Skins. (My prediction: Fins win by at least seven.) DeAndre Hopkins threw and interception, which is good because that means after weeks of mediocrity, the man may finally have hit rock bottom.
(Tangent: the Panthers played the perfect defense against Deshaun Watson this week. Knowing the front-seven could handle Carlos Hyde on its own, the secondary (according to Watson) played mostly Cover 4, which gets its name from dropping the main four members of the secondary deep in coverage, thus discouraging or even flat out eliminating the possibility of a deep pass, aka Watson’s bread and butter. Up front, the Panthers played contain, limiting Watson to three scrambles while getting themselves ten QB hits, including six sacks and a fumble. Did the Panthers just “figure out” Deshaun Watson? No. The Panthers have a top-5 defense in terms of both talent and scheme, and the Texans won’t face anything like that until Week 13 against the Patriots. So what this means, in basic coaching terminology, is that the Texans just got punched in the mouth and now it’s time for them to respond, and respond against comparatively shit competition. And what this means for the Panthers is that they had to play absolutely perfect defense in order to win by only six points. Their next opponent is Jacksonville, but the thing about Jacksonville is there is no gimmick. They obviously want to run but are also comfortable doing whatever it takes to win, including letting Chef Minshew cook (credit to Bill Simmons). I say this to reassure myself since the Panthers are far-and-away the best DST available, and it’s a seemingly good matchup, but I fear that it will cancel-out the Minshew magic boosting the attack rating of my offense.)
What else stands out? Officiating sucks, not because the officials themselves are bad but because their jobs are. Imagine how unfulfilling it would be to run around for three hours with everybody yelling at you, and the closer they are to you, the smaller your salary is a percentage of theirs, and then when the game ends, at best no one pays any attention to you, at worst they talk about you for weeks. I’ve talked about this before, but I have to say it again: I don’t understand who is in favor of more attention placed on officiating. Here is what needs to happen in a game for the game to be a success, from an officiating standpoint: no one fights, no one cheats on purpose and gets away with it, and we spend more time playing the game than litigating it. That’s it. As one of the relatively few people who watched the Burt Emmanuel game and remembers that play as it happened, I don’t fucking care if they get the calls wrong if the calls are hard to get right in real time. The only people who care about officials getting the call wrong are losers, literally. But somehow—and this isn’t an exaggeration; it’s the exact verbage they use—the priority of the officials has become to get the call right. What we need, if we’re going to take forever to litigate anyway, is instead of the head official or anyone making the call using replay, if we’re going to use replay, and we’re going to pretend there’s anything entertaining about it—because the points of sports on TV is entertainment, right, and definitely not advertising, is it? The reason they’re expanding the purview of replay couldn’t possibly be to squeeze an extra couple minutes of advertising per minute, nooo, couldn’t be, never—we should have the team captains who were on the field during the play watch the replay and argue over which way the call should go, then a panel of three celebrity judges should vote on which way the call should go. I mean, we could just not do replay, and play more football, but if we absolutely must do replay for the ad dollars, can we please do something besides have crusty white dudes explain to us the difference between the ball being in a guy’s hands and the ball being on the ground? Please?
All right, this note’s not terrible after all.
So let's take this momentum into the recaps.
Poor Little Rickless Bastards 178 — I Eat My Own Poop 151
This is both Oliver’s highest score and narrowest loss, so things are looking up! Of course it would’ve been better to just face one of the eight teams that score less than 151, but you can’t have it all, not all at once. And don’t go selling your team for future picks just yet. You scored 151 despite Hopkins only getting 3, your kicker (who you need to drop) getting 2, and Aaron Donald getting 4.5. Granted, Jordan Howard and Bobby Woods exploded for points they won’t usually get, but that’s kind of what I mean. There’s balance coming that will sustain the 140+ you weren’t getting the first three weeks, and four losses can look like no big deal if you suddenly rattle off a few wins to go with them.
But let’s stay on this game. Just minutes before kickoff, I offered Cameron a trade for Wayne Gallman, but duh, but the reason I offered a trade for Gallman (besides, duh, to start him) is that I read that Saquon Barkley added Gallman to his fantasy team (and also that the Skins suck against the run). It turns out I didn’t need the help, but I still want to pump up a small move like that in an era when our league’s trade block is white hot yet the trade wire is ice cold. Much like you gotta draft for Week 1, you gotta play for this week, every week. I sent out some more trades this week, but not only did they (duh) not happen, but I didn’t even get a response (you know who you are). Fine, be that way (but c’mon don’t be that way bb). Maybe, like some people I’ve talked to, you think I fleeced Cam in that trade, or maybe you think it was a dumb trade that worked out. Either way, if you need help one week, and you see the help you need sitting on someone else’s bench, uh HULLO, make an offer. Cameron didn’t accept my initial offer. He countered with the ask for Deebo, and I accepted. Stephanie watches a show called Million Dollar Listing, and my frustration with this show is not only that it’s a vapid waste of time but also that the way they negotiate seems to be the accepted method of negotiation, where I basically argue why I don’t need to pay you the price you want because I don’t want to bad enough, and you argue that yes I do because you want me to so bad. I got into this situation a lot in the mattress world, where there’s like, you know, a fucking price on a thing, and the common knowledge is that the thing is overpriced, and so I’d be like, yeah, there’s a special on this one where you can pay an amount conveniently in the middle of what I paid for it and what my boss wants me to charge you, and when people asked to pay even less, I basically said the polite version of, Get out. This isn’t a simulation, and you can’t just keep mashing the Me button until the simulation glitches and gives you something for nothing. You want a better team? You have to make it better by adding free players through free agency or by trading for players when their value to you is higher than their value to their owner. I don’t know why I need to say it, but I’ve seen and heard of some trash offers already this season that make it clear we just need to be more active on the #general thread pumping up and fading players so that we all have some idea of what we actually think of our team. And if you put someone on the trade block, be aware of the psychology of that move, of you negging that player’s value just by announcing he is not a necessary member of your squad. Of course, you can do what Kennedy does, which is smart, saying something like, I know these players are good but they are not the type of players I want but I very much still want players who are as good just different types of them. Fine. But when you offer Jacobs and Montgomery, we all agree the real prize is Carson, and again what I learned in negotiating sales is that in order to make the best deal for you, you must sell the perception that it is a good deal for the other person, and so even though we all want to live in a world where we say, look this is what’s available and this is how much it costs, we very much live in a world where people say, I know you said it costs that and I’d rather pay less and instead get the better version of the thing available, too, because the truth is they know it’s unreasonable to get both but are cool settling for one out of two things that weren’t originally available. In a perfect world, everyone would be like the rich people who came into Mattress Firm, who bought beds for the sale price and insisted on free pillows and sheets. In this league, we’re all rich people. Even Oliver isn’t poor. He has assets of value, and he has his sights set on assets of value, just like the rest of us. I warned him against trading for future picks too soon, but at this point, I’ll take anything that increases player movement.
Long story short, I won mostly because Lamar threw a garbage-time 50-yard TD to Willie Snead (which was really just Lamar completing a seven-yard pass to Snead, then Snead breaking a tackle, getting a key block, and beating everyone else to the endzone). Oliver lost mostly because his K and IDPs didn’t show well enough.
My Fellow Kamaracans 123 — Hot Garbage 92
Even though Cameron finished the week eighth in scoring, he gets the win. I guess eighth isn’t terrible, but it does mean two teams outscored him and lost. What really happened is that Shelby’s team underperformed, which you can see even without the help of sleeper’s Weekly Report. There was a path to victory for Shelby, and crazily it involved starting Todd Gurley over Rex Burkhead BUT LOOK if it gets the Bucs a win, it’s a smart decision. I’m skeptical that’s the reason Shelby benched him—the Bucs have the league’s best run defense—but that’s the reason I’m going with because you can’t just go around benching starting RBs for third-string RBs, even with the Pats playing the Mosley-less Jets. But even had Shelby started Gurley, she would’ve needed a little more help, and she was never starting Corey Davis over DK Creatine (which makes this a good time to question the purpose of bench players when bye weeks aren’t yet a factor), but she certainly could’ve gotten more than zero out of the DL and DB positions, and she should have known this when she read my reaction to Carlos Dunlap and Quincy Williams in last week’s note. If I tout the pick, the pick almost has to be bad. Almost has to. Quincy was fine, but Dunlap, who if you remember I walked a winding line to ascertain an explanation for, was always a fraught decision. Who would I have gone with, without cherrypicking how they did? You guessed it: Jadeveon Clowney, who had played like dogshit, fantasy-wise, until Sunday, when he scored a touchdown on like the third play of the game. Get it right!
The thing I hatre about Cam’s team is that it appears impervious to the Commissioner’s Curse, perhaps because I’m too obvious about trying to curse it when the curse usually only works when I believe what I’m saying, so okay, I’ll say this. Cameron’s team is only as good as Zeke and Kamara can be on a weekly basis, and Zeke and Kamara are going to have subpar seasons by their standard, granted even poor performances go a long with with those first down points (Z and K combined for 30 FP despite producing just 150 yards and no TDs). Teddy Bridge-QB is a bridge QB, incapable of discouraging the eight-man box, and the blueprint for stopping the Cowboys is stopping Zeke from running. And because Dak sucks at throwing, stopping Zeke stops the offense altogether. Cam can go back to the original plan and start Baker, but Baker apparently needs 250 yards to break 20 points. It’s getting to the point where if OBJ doesn’t score a full-field TD, he doesn’t score enough fantasy points to play over Emmanuel Sanders.
Long-short: Shelby’s team basically didn’t show up while Cameron’s only slightly underperformed (my opinion), but even on their best days, neither of these teams is going to steamroll anybody, much less even compete with the Thor-like might of Evan’s team. (Is that racist?)
Team 4 130 — Cowboy Morty 126
Again we find two teams capable of playing a good game against one another who would find themselves severely outmatched against basically an all-star team like Evan’s. Man, what a unit. Anyway, Corey won because Austin Ekeler played the Dolphins with only Troymaine Pope backing him up and because Jarvis Landry just kept getting open and breaking tackles against a suddenly shaky Ravens defense. Throw in forced fumbles by each of his (Corey’s) IDPs—including two for Jordan Hicks—and it’s surprising he didn’t win by more, but remember that the Bills shut down the Pats offense and you’ll understand why half of Corey’s offense sputtered. Sony Michel scored more FP than Brady and Edelman combined. I mean, I can read that and see how that sounds like, woah, what a game that must’ve been. Michel must’ve scored all their touchdowns. Nope. No scores among the three. On the other side, Sean really had no good reason to start Josh Allen, and I don’t understand why he didn’t pick up Philip Rivers at some point during the week. I mean, I guess good on him for not starting Kyle Allen and getting half as many points out of the QB position? But there were sooo many quality QBs available. Rivers, for one, but also Matthew Stafford at home against the Chiefs. You got what you needed elsewhere, so I guess good job good effort. Freeman, Johnson, and McCoy combined for 50, which they won’t do on a weekly basis (Freeman had 73 rec yards; Johnson had 99). McCoy, Ertz, and Butker appear to be the most consistent scorers on this team. I don’t even want to know what that feels like.
But Corey, congratulations! If you can win despite losing 4.6 points on defense, you must have a pretty good team (against crap competition, but whatever). I mean, it seems like something bad happens every week to take you down a notch, but hey, enjoy the win!
Live-Action Szechuan Sauce 149 — The Mortytown Locos 113
I bet Oliver’s real salty he couldn’t have drawn one of these 0-4 teams this week, but look, this game is about Spencer rising above adversity and finally winning a game with the best player in all of fantasy. But wait, Mahomes was human on Sunday, so Spencer scored basically 150 because the rest of his roster showed out. Let’s see: 25 from Conner, 22 from Kupp, 13 from backup TE Dissly, 14 from fantasy’s best kicker Joey “Big Beef” Slye, and 16 from Tremaine Edmunds—who Spencer has cut in an apparent effort to prove he doesn’t need stud LB play to succeed anymore, maybe because his kicker is the size of a linebacker but also maybe because he’s living without fear finally, and that’s how you really separate yourself when you don’t necessarily have players that separate for you. You take chances. You bet on yourself. You don’t let the past dictate the future. I love the combined moves of keeping two IDPs who played below expectation and cutting the one who played above. Sure, MAYBE you’re cutting the one the guy capable of carrying the unit, but probably you’re playing the regression odds and winning. Devin Bush (who Spencer added when he cut Edmunds) has more tackles than Edmunds and is playing the league’s run-heaviest team in Week 5, then Edmunds has a bye Week 6 anyway so it’s not like if you lose him you lose him for good anyway. Great gamble! And additionally great gamble: starting two TEs. You knew you were going to start Kittle, so seeing Dissly put up double digits on Thursday night has to feel like a trend in the right direction. Hell yeah!
Kennedy, look, you won back 20% of your league dues, so you can’t be too upset, but this: if you know your team is trending bad, why aren’t you setting a cash game that gives you some sort of advantage in recouping more of that likely-to-be-lost money? Because I don’t know what cause you’d have for confidence going forward. Adams is out for at least one game, probably three if he lets it heal all the way, and even then you just scored 113 in a week when the players who were supposed to score big scored big. If I owned Juju, this week against the Ravens would be his last chance before I start benching him, not because Juju is bad (he’s not) or because Rudolph is bad (he’s not) but because the bench options are just so tantalizing, and like Spencer’s taking chances, you must now also take chances. Time isn’t “running out,” but I would expect you to sell out a little to win this week. With Adams out a couple weeks and you needing wins, dude, trade his ass—not to Sean, please, but trade him somewhere, maybe to Tim. Go DFS in this bitch and get some guys who are going to win now. If you don’t win now, you are only going to feel more desperate for it next week. Roll those dice!
Bench Point Hoarder 179 &mdash The Squanchers 112
I don’t know what to make of Coleman’s team. I know I’m real disappointed he decided to set the league points record against me last week, but I’m not like happy he didn’t score anything this week. I want to lose to a good team, not get jumped on by a bad team like the Colts got jumped on by the Raiders on Sunday. But yeah, so Coleman’s scored (in order) 209, 107, 217, and 112. Meanwhile Tim has scored 88, 180, 138, and 179, and even though Coleman’s highs are higher, I’d rather have Tim’s line because Tim’s highs come on even weeks while Coleman’s come on odd weeks, reason being that our championship is played on an even week, so okay, maybe having my high on Week 15 would be what got me into the championship, not having my high on Week 14 might’ve knocked me out in the first round anyway, right? That’s how this whole thing works, right? Hello? Anybody? Hello?
Tim had 36 from two players (Rodgers and L. Cuatro) and 29 from his defense (fucking Pats), so he only needed eleven points from his other nine players to win this week. Granted, he got more than that, it was still only an average of 8.5 FP in a league where you need 12 FP per player to win. So on a reasonable week where no one goes HAM, Tim has a middling team, mostly because his WRs and TE combine for like twelve points on a weekly basis, but he has multiple players that are likely to hit 30-point explosions every few weeks, so if they can space themselves out and get off the same cycle, Tim can suddenly get a winning streak going and maybe hit that high win total he’s become accustomed to in recent years.
Coleman, look, I started the recap by talking about you and I veered off that path because I don’t know what I’m seeing. You got 32 from McCaffrey and 80 from the other 11 guys, an average of seven points per, and that includes 19 from your TE. I was going to make an argument that it’s time to trade OJ Howard, but it really isn’t. Still, I’m obligated to say that whenever you wan to trade Howard, you will only get the value you want if you trade with Brian, Corey, or Shelby. Evan is happy with Engram, Spencer has Kittle, and I’m willing to ride the Ravens red zone offense until it physically pains me to do so. Otherwise, just hold your team and hope for another 200-pointer this weekend.
Mr. Lunas Le’Veon the Moon 175 — Fart69 122
Evan bottled up the fart, or something to that effect. Jameis Winston had the game Brian needed Jameis Winston to have, but Dalvin Cook played down to the level of a great RB instead of an elite one, Marlon Mack got hurt, Julio Jones became fully acclimated to the Dirk Koetter offense, Delanie Walker lost points, Melvin Gordon didn’t play (like we knew he wouldn’t), and Antoine Bethea validated everyone who’s never heard of him even though he’s been in the league since 2006.
(Tangent, as I looked up the 2006 Draft to cherrypick some names of dudes I could say instead of the year, but holy shit. Top three drafted that season: Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, Vincy Young. First-round QBs: Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler. First-round RBs: Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai… Vernon Davis was the sixth overall pick! And the Bucs first pick that year: Davin Joseph, 23 overall. There are eight players still playing. Both Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker were drafted by the 49ers that year (Delanie in the 6th). Ravens punter Sam Koch has been with the team since that day. The other four: Andrew Whitworth, Jonathan Joseph, Marcedes Lewis, and Stephen Gostkowski. Trivia!)
Uh, wow, derailed. So Evan’s really, really, ridiculously good. Brian is also good, but he’s gotta bring it every week if he wants to be at the Zoolander level of good. Evan has 666 points, which is a lot but also, you know, scary especially in October. Meanwhile I have 671, but who’s counting? (Spoiler: it’s me) I especially love watching my fifth-round pick from last year break off 80-yard runs against a Ravens team I root for at least half as hard as I root for the Bucs. Okay, but things that actually make me happy: watching Keenan Allen, Larry Fitz, and Evan Engram return to earth in the same week. Wow, where did all of Evan’s points come from? Hmm. 29 from Wentz, 41 from Chubb, then a combined 60 from his DST and IDPs. That’s the real fear in playing Evan. His DST and IDPs are consistent threats to hit double digits, so the only realistic way he loses is if either they all fall short or if basically his entire offense underwhelms.
Brian has heavy hitters, yes, but they are an inconsistent bunch. Only Dalvin has gotten his 15+ touches for 15+ points every week. Jameis, we know well. Marlon Mack did this last year, alternating between 100-yard games and 40-yard games and not getting enough TDs. Julio Jones probably hit his floor at 50 yards and three first downs, but he tends to hit his floor in about a quarter of games. Kenny Golladay is the fucking man; I’m sorry I lumped him in here. Delanie Walker clearly can’t be counted on to even stay above water every week. Kicker and DB are Brian’s own fault. He punted the positions in the draft and hasn’t yet figured out who the right guys are. Maher’s not terrible. I guess if you get a big-leg kicker in a dome, it’s not always going to work out. But I think he’s finally got his man at DB in Shawn Williams. Williams is in the top-10 in tackles among DBs since entering the league, and he plays behind a basement-level front-seven in Cincy, so he’s never short on opportunities to lead in tackles every week. Brian really wants to make Dariis Leonard happen again, but the universe really wants him to keep starting sleeper-stud Joe Schobert.
And predictions.
You’ve waited a year, and it’s finally here. Formerly the Swole Bowl, this game is now known as Alien Invasion Tomato Monster Mexican Armada Brothers Who Are Just Regular Brothers Running In A Van From An Asteroid And All Sorts Of Things… The Movie.
Going back to 2014, when Spuds McKenzie defeated Great Odin’s Ravens 117 to 114 (and both teams eventually made the playoffs AND played each other, with Kennedy beating Coleman again, this time 100 to 74), this matchup has been dominated by Kennedy, with a W-L record of 6-1 and a score differential of 797 to 695. But as we read earlier, this is an odd-numbered week. So with Kennedy needing the win, and being without his top draft pick, yet having the spiritual advantage, what will give here? I am predicting a changing of the guard, with Coleman winning handily, delivering an 0-5 Kennedy to the Shadow Realm and causing straight-up panic. Coleman’s best player will always be Christian McCaffrey, but his second-best (besides OJ and A-Rob on the bench) will be… uh… hm, I’m rethinking my prediction here unless Coleman gets OJ and A-Rob in that lineup. Kennedy’s best player will be Matt Ryan.
Spencer is off to a good start after that excellent game between Seattle and the Rams on Thursday, and I think he will roll it into a second victory here. Remember again, odd-numbered weeks are bad for Tim, so expect a relatively low output, especially when Lenny does just okay this week. I don’t know what to make of the Packers-Cowboys game, with the Packers offense playing poorly against good defenses and the Cowboys defense playing well against bad offenses. It’s a real good test, which is why it’s the only game in it’s time slot tomorrow, intentionally the only game that will be on between 7 and 8 pm unless Broncos-Chargers goes to OT. Broncos-Chargers is another game that I can’t make a read on, so it’s awesome that these four teams are like the best four defenses available outside of that Jags-Panthers matchup. But okay, Spencer and Tim are pretty evenly matched. QB advantage goes to Spe but not overwhelmingly as both Mahomes and Rodgers see good defense. RB favors Tim, WR/TE favors Spe, K favors Spe, DST/IDP favors Tim (heavily). So mathematically, Tim should win, but I still think Spencer has the fantasy gods on his sides this week, or more accurately the fantasy winds are blowing in his favor. Spencer’s best non-Mahomes player will be Mecole Hardman (you’re welcome), and Tim’s best player will be Luke Kuechly.
Oliver, please beat Evan. No one needs to be undefeated, and no one needs to be winless after five weeks—okay, maybe Kennedy. I can’t predict Oliver—or anyone—will beat Evan any time soon, but just looking at sleeper’s color-coding for the individual matchups, maybe it will just be a bad week for Evan that gives Oliver a grace victory. Even the Bears playing the Raiders in London has creepy feelings of an upset or at least an unexpected outcome. While it seems obvious the Bears will win, it just doesn’t feel like they’ll do it easily. The Raiders haven’t run any of that trick shit yet, and I would assume this was the game they saved it for. Matt Gay is in a dome, but we know now that the easy kicks are the ones he misses, so… Look, I’m biased, and I can’t shake my bias here. Evan should win, but I want Oliver to win, so I’m arguing, I guess, that Oliver is the Oakland Raiders and Evan is the Chicago Bears and this game will go like that one somehow, meaning Oliver will make it close but in order to win will have to get crazy lucky at some point. I’m guessing Oliver’s crazy luck will bestow the most points on Travis Kelce, while Evan gets his best score from Lavonte David.
Tom Brady and Julian Edelman will beat Cam this week, and it will be sweet. The Packers will stymie the Cowboys offense (in Big D, no less) while the Bucs bottle up Kamara (relatively). OBJ goes against Richard Sherman, and I like OBJ in that matchup, but I don’t like Baker Mayfield at all against a good defense, which the 49ers have both in terms of talent and scheme. Sterling Shepard is not the play; Deebo Samuel is the play. But anyway, Corey will get more than just the 60-combined from Brady and Edelman. Michel should reach pay dirt, and I imagine (keyword) the Ravens will have a big comeback game against Pittsburgh. Ekeler likely has his last big day for a while, though, as Melvin gets “worked in” to the offense against Denver. Honestly, I think Gordon will get 20 touches; I just think Ekeler’s reduced workload will give him such efficient touches that he ends up scoring some FP, plus I think he’ll be the goal-line back at least this week. Corey’s best player will be Brady, and Cameron’s best will be Stefon Diggs on offense and Harrison Smith on defense.
Brian and I joked about playing Lamar and Jameis straight-up this week, but what I really wanted was for both of us to bench our RBs. Sadly, we will be playing full lineups, and Brian’s RBs will be the difference in the game. While I’d hoped Mack would miss the game, he won’t. Dalvin need not worry that the Vikings will throw more this week, and Melvin Gordon will get those 20 touches I talked about, so even if Ekeler vultures a TD, Melvin will end up with plenty of FP. I lead the league in FP, so I’m confident I can score, but I’m also nervous that Lamar is regressing to the mean. He has not been an efficient passer, and Pittsburgh is going to be putting pressure on and stopping the run effectively. While I feel Lamar has a solid floor, my fear is that he will approach that floor more often than he approaches his ceiling. Even though the Ravens are on the whole better than the Steelers, this game in Pittsburgh should be a close one unless Lamar hits his deep passes. At least if the offense gets downfield before it gets stopped, it will be a good game for Justin Tucker against his former owner. One thing I feel real good about is the matchup between Mike Evans and Michael Thomas. Evans will be locked down by Lattimore to start the game, but I could see Lattimore switching to cover Godwin if CGod starts hot. Either way, when top-5 WRs clash, they tend to play like when top scorers in basketball play each other. Look, I know feeling this way now means ultimately these dudes will combine for 12 points, but I already conceded that I predict I’ll lose this week. Just let me be excited. I also feel like I have the IDP advantage, but with Brian getting the QB and RB advantages, I still feel like even if I score big, it wont be enough. Brian’s best non-Jameis, non-Godwin player will Julio Jones (in a BIG win over Houston), and my best player will be D. Williams of Kansas City.
I saved Shelby and Sean for last because it’s the one that needs our attention. Shelby got 42 from Russ on Thursday, but that means nothing because she got 52 from him two weeks ago and lost anyway. Sean, I know you’re not the dominant force in this league that you used to be, but I still have to root for your failure until you fight back by trading away David Johnson for a couple legit WRs. You’re doing favors for no one dropping Will Fuller and letting a good team pick him up. But look, whatever, I’m not going to zoom in on your shortcomings. I mostly just want Shelby to get at least one win when Russ scores 40+ points, and I feel like this is the week. Also, your team’s a real mess that could use a shakeup, and I feel like the only thing that’ll force you to do it is having the need to climb out of a deep hole. But in terms of individual matchups, the real football is in Sean’s favor, especially David Johnson vs. Cincy. Brissett vs. KC will also be nasty, as Brissett is the only QB in the league who has thrown multiple TDs every game. (Also interesting: three QBs have thrown zero INTs so far. Obviously, Mahomes. Semi-predictably, Russ. Not at all possible yet here we are: Mariota.) Shelby’s best non-Russ player will not be Jason Witten, but it might be Adam Thielen. Sean’s best player will be Johnson, with strong efforts from Brissett and Freeman to keep this game close.
Oh, I almost forgot.
Week 4
25 Kennedy
24 Cam, Coleman, Doak, Oliver, Sean
23 Spe, Tim
19 Corey
15 Evan
13 Shelby
11 Brian
(15% of our total scores, up 2%!)
Season Totals
94 Coleman
89 Doak
86 Evan, Kennedy
85 Brian
82 Cam
80 Spe
73 Sean
72 Oliver
71 Corey
70 Tim
59 Shelby (OMG what)
(Still 13% of our total scoring)
Interesting to note here that Kennedy doesn’t benefit at all from the first downs, not enough to win, which is why maybe he picked the cash game that he did this week (highest scoring player without a TD). Interesting also to see a 3-1 team like Corey so low on this totem pole, though. Maybe first downs don’t mean anything. (Shelby’s like, PREACH!)
Good luck this week. Hopefully the Bucs keep the momentum. I’ll be happy to take an L to Brian if it means Jameis eats a W.
