12. Spencer
Gotta be. He has Mahomes, but that’s basically all he has for sure. James Conner is but a human, and Saquon Barkley when down with that high ankle sprain. The timetable is 4-8 weeks, but experts suggest that for this injury—for a runningback, especially for the type of RB Saquon is—we should expect him to miss the full eight weeks. This doesn’t mean Spencer will go 0-11 or even 0-13, but it does significantly hinder his odds of winning the minimum six games to even sniff the six seed. Still, when you have the best player in the game, you are forever the favorite to win the #1 pick. Ugh, but the Chiefs play the Bears in Week 16, so that’s probably not on the table either.
But okay, this is the perfect time to bring up future picks. Oliver paid his dues all the way through 2021 to unlock the ability to trade any future picks. Spencer shouldn’t be ready to panic, but he should at least have rattling around in his cage the idea of what his current players are worth in terms of future picks. Spoiler: not enough to bail anytime soon. But say you lose to Kennedy since you’re fucked and he’s coming off a down week, 0-4 is a legitimate fear. And if 0-4 is a fear, then something like 0-6 is at least an idea. And if you’re 0-6, and you have the opportunity to trade next season’s assets, you at least have to consider your options.
Okay, fine, I won’t discuss it until someone has at least six losses, then. But believe me when I say I was gearing up for major derailment.
Let’s get happy. Spencer is fifth in the league in scoring, and he’s “allowed” the most points against, with a staggering 35-point lead. At 540 points allowed, Spencer has been subject to a 180-point beat-down on average, and even if we take out the melee, it. Gets. Worse. In order to win any of these first three weeks, Spencer would have had to put up 158, 173, and finally 205. Are these losses? Sure. But they’re losses that almost anyone with that schedule would have incurred. Only Coleman, Evan, and I would be even 2-1 in that scenario, with Corey, Shelby, Brian, and Tim at 1-2. That’s right, Cameron and Sean, I found a way to spin it so that I could remind you your wins are luck-based. So Spencer, while you have to take the losses, you don’t have to take them hard. You just keep starting Mahomes and keep hoping for… regression?
Let’s break down the team: Mahomes is a god. James Conner is startable. Your second RB is either Peyton Barber or Chris Thompson, both borderline top-30 RBs, so not ideal but not, like, Oliver’s bullshit. Cooper Kupp is a value at 25th overall. Tyrell Williams and John Brown are the clear #1s on their teams, which is enough to get you by while you wait on AJ Green (probably Week 8). Kittle is decidedly not a value, but he’s shown a high floor, and that’s without any TDs yet, suggesting that his best days are ahead of him. Where Spencer needs to keep hitting is on the back half. Joey Slye is the #1 kicker through three weeks. The Jags have been good but have no Ramsey, so that may be an area to improve. But Chandler Jones threw down 23 last week, Tremaine Edmunds has a solid floor, and Budda Baker is a versatile DB capable of delivering big weeks. Stay patient. The wins are coming.
11. Oliver
Okay, so he’s probably the worst, but we’re playing this week, and you can’t expect me to rank him the worst and expect to feel good about any ensuing outcome. Look, I took a break from writing this when the Eagles games started, and now I’m down a fucking million points to the supposed worst team in our league. If Sean taught us anything, it’s that you can’t rule anyone out, no matter how hopeless the situation seems. Last week, I compared Oliver’s team to bad pornography, and I don’t want to think about what that makes my team if I lose to him.
But so let’s not speak figuratively. Oliver lost his QB to a hand injury that will take about six weeks to heal. His backup plan had exactly zero points in the first half of his Week 3 game, and he ended up managing (I think) 16 points by game’s end. That’s a microcosm of Oliver’s overall status. His top RB was injured in Week 1, and his second RB (Sanders) wasn’t technically a starter, but I guess luckily he had the other voluminous non-starter (Howard) to balance it out? (Spoiler: it’s working out!) Then let’s talk about WR, where Oliver drafted the clear and obvious #1 (Hopkins) at the perfect moment. Then Hopkins tossed a 27 on the board Week 1, which must’ve made Shelby rethink taking Gurley right in front of him, but then in the last two weeks, Gurley’s been the better option, with Nuk failing to exceed 10 points—don’t worry: the theme of this week is Oliver’s disappointments transmuting into achievements. Robert Woods had been mediocre in the last two weeks, too, but guess what: he gets the still-awful Tampa secondary to rebound against, so wow, I don’t even think I need to finish, but let’s do it anyway. Kelce’s an animal, with a current floor of 10.8, and if Oliver would just play Marvin Jones, his team’s floor would rise. But even if it’s James White or MVS, we’re talking about guaranteed production (or in White’s case, at least reproduction). Where this team becomes less inspiring (except for this week) is on the back half. Zane Gonzalez is not a name you need to know, but hey, if they Cards’ offense continues to rack up yards and come up short at the goal line, maybe he is the #3 kicker the stats say he is. The Bills are definitely a top-10 defense on the year, but is anyone a top-10 defense against Tom Brady—who, btw, has more wins in Buffalo than any Bills QB since Doug Flutie. Aaron Donald had a slow start and then got injured, but he put up 10.5 last week and will probably be lined up across from Alex Cappa and injured Ryan Jensen this week, so even if the Bucs run left all game, he’ll get there a couple times. I do not like the LB and DB on this team, but both Marcilus and Ryan are top-2 at their positions so far, so fine, roll me over this week, Oliver. I’m Will Hunting picking the wrench instead of the belt because fuck you.
Season-long, I can see Oliver’s ranking improving significantly. It’s not like his team is bad, but neither are most of our teams. We all drafted well, and we’re all holding onto our good players. Even Spencer is fine except for losing the first overall pick for eight weeks. Oliver might have a win if he hadn’t lost Brees (and Coleman, in consecutive weeks). So we’re all getting too comfortable, I guess is what I’m saying. Brian went so far as to call this a “walkover week” for me, which is just as cruel as possible a jinx because it wasn’t even said in public. Inevitably, it’s about me. That’s the real theme every week.
10. Sean
Speaking of lost QBs, Sean paid about twice as much as Oliver did, so the loss hurts more, even though Sean got a worse asset to begin with. Much like the Panthers, Sean is better off without Newton, but it would have been nice if, like the Panthers, Sean had a backup plan. Josh Allen has been great… against the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. I’m not saying he can’t be great; I’m just saying that his upcoming slate is the Pats, Titans, and a bye week. It’s not promising, and maybe sensing that, Sean added Kyle Allen, who has scored a total seven touchdowns in his first two NFL starts. If you don’t know, now you know: the Panthers offense is freaking good. The thing holding them back was Cam Newton. As many opportunities as we’ve had to ponder Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory this season, this ranks right up their with Luck retiring. You might be thinking there’s no way that Luck was holding his team back, but much like with Newton, Luck’s pile of injuries were bound to render him erratic and constantly questionable and not practicing in full or wearing himself out in order to practice. But anyway, you can believe Cam Newton was a good QB, and I won’t fault you. He won the MVP and forced defenses to choose which way they would let him beat them. But he’s been an inaccurate or at least inconsistent passer from inside the pocket, and at some point, that has to catch up to you.
So if there’s one glaring reason to fade Sean’s season, it’s the two Allens. If there’s another, it’s the revolving door at WR behind Brandin Cooks. Right now, it’s Demarcus Robinson, but what happens when Tyreek Hill returns? Are you cool with that boom-bust option? I don’t like rhetorical questions because they feign communication, but it’s kind of a fair question since all of Sean’s options, including Brandin Cooks, have that boom-bust quality: Mike Williams gets like four targets per game but usually in the red zone; Will Fuller is an enigma who once scored seven TDs in four games, but now his stat-line is that of a low-volume Edelman; Chris Conley; and the aforementioned Robinson, who will be the fifth option on (the best) offense without another injury to a WR ahead of him. So yeah, you’re comfortable with Demarcus Robinson, and that’s why you fail. Past that, I’ve got no real complaints. Freeman and Johnson appear to be fine. Zach Ertz is giving you what you need. You somehow ended up with the starting RBs for the 49ers and Chiefs as your flex options. You have a top-5 kicker, and not the way that Zane Gonzalez is a top-5 kicker, and your IDP group, as I’ve stated previously, is elite. You don’t have a defense, but if there’s one position that my weird stats last week showed to be inconsequential, it’s the defense. And there will always be defenses to choose from in free agency, so live that stream life with confidence. I don’t love the choice of the gimpy Browns against the most dynamic QB in the league, but hey, do you.
So let’s see: rough QBs, pretty unpredictable RBs, straight-up volatile WRs, but elite TE, K, and IDPs. Even with depth, it doesn’t add up to a playoff season, at least not in a universe where it takes more than six wins and a convoluted five-way tie to get you in. Make a creative trade for a WR you can trust, and add a reliable QB. Since when are you too good for Philip Rivers?
9. Kennedy
You’re 0-3 with no injuries to blame it on, so this is happening. Even when one of your players goes down with turf toe, he waits until after he’s dropped 25 points, and he does it with ten days rest before his next game. Okay, sure, Big Ben went down, but you weren’t playing Big Ben unless Matt Ryan stopped having multi-TD games. Okay, maybe this week, with the Falcons playing Tennessee and the Steelers at home against Cincy, maybe you’d have played Big Ben, especially when you have to go up against Mahomes in a dome, so fine. You might lose this week because Ben went down, but the phrasing of the lede was that you couldn’t blame your current record on injuries, so… grammar, bitch.
I am excited about Kennedy’s season. He has three starting RBs who should see high volume, and he has like seven startable WRs. If I were him, I would offer Tyler Boyd or DJ Chark for Jamal Adams. If I were Sean, I wouldn’t take it, but look, if I were Sean I would have drafted either Josh Jacobs or David Montgomery over Devonta Freeman. I like Freeman, but he’s lost a step and is playing just the most brutal schedule for RBs you could cook up. So maybe I counter by saying, Freeman and Adams for Jacobs and Boyd (or whoever you like below Juju and Davante; given you do it now while Jamal Adams is on bye anyway), and if I’m Kennedy, I seriously consider it. Sean would have to find a replacement DB—which, believe me, sucks a whole butt when it was all good just a week ago—but just imagine how much better you’d feel looking at a more legit RB and WR when you open the app.
But we’re talking about Kennedy, right? (Literally wrote another paragraph on Sean before realizing it.) He’s got everything he needs on offense, but K, you need to figure out how to pick IDPs. Jaire Alexander is real, real good at playing corner, and against a team with a clear-cut #1 WR who they force the ball, he’s an amazing play because he is a lightning bolt with hands, but against a team that spreads the ball and a QB who avoids mistakes, it wasn’t the move. Now, okay, Desmond Trufant played Wentz two weeks ago and had two picks, huge game, but remember that Wentz remembers that, too. It’s complicated to see this stuff, and sometimes it’s worthless because players surprise you, but when you aren’t sure about IDPs early in the season, you can’t chase points and expect anything but roulette. If you want to avoid getting one point from an IDP, look at last year’s stats, sort by tackles, and give a premium to players who have TFLs. If you want to get more complicated, shit, I can get complicated. But that’s not why we’re here, or at least I don’t have the energy to spend all week researching DBs and then spoiling it by telling you all who the talented DBs are. I want to win too badly. But as far as a simple way to win, consistent tackling is how you win, and that goes for everyone.
Oh man, so Kennedy has more points than anyone in the bottom-five, and it’s been a consistent stream since Week 1. Even last week’s 115 was pretty fluky, with Carson and Fairbairn having terrible games. If they’d had just reasonable output, we’d be looking at 130 (and that’s with Kennedy whiffing hard on his DL streamer). I like everything else about this team, except Vance McDonald, but he’s injured anyway. Drop Big Ben. Even as a keeper candidate (early, I might add), he’s going to be a 38-year-old with a blown elbow and a regressing offense.
8. Tim?
He just hasn’t scored a whole lotta points. He’s not in the oubliette with Sean and Oliver, but he’s third-to-last, just barely above 400 through three weeks, with 88 in Week 1, 180 in Week 2, and a probably-more-the-norm 139 in Week 3. Averaging 139 sounds good, but it’s below league-average when the offense are juiced, we’re playing twelve dudes and putting in (spoiler) an average 19 first downs in each of our starting lineups every week. Part of the struggle is an adjustment period. Aaron Rodgers is adjusting to a new coach and a new offense, and things clicked more often against Philly’s hobbled secondary than they had against the excellent secondaries of Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver (yes, Denver has a very good secondary). Aaron Jones is in a full-blown timeshare. Sammy Watkins is more suited to be second on the depth chart than he is first. Calvin Ridley is adjusting (poorly) to people actually covering him. Frank Gore is starting again and crushing, but can he hold off Devin Singletary?
So Tim can’t answer these questions. He can just start his best players, and he’s been doing that. The problem is that his best players either don’t play RB or WR, so while he’s going to smoke us all season at QB, DST, and all three IDPs, he’s going to suffer at the hands of opposing skill players. A-Jo, Len Cuatro, Swatkins, and Calvin Cringely are all great second-fiddles, but then, that means that Frank Gore and Tyreek Hill have to lead this team. You can like these guys all you want, but Tim, you had your choice of Zeke or Julio and you went Tyreek. I’m not gonna salt old wounds. Let’s backtrack.
Stud QB, two top-20 RBs, maybe one stud WR (though streaky), a total shitshow at the second WR spot, whatever Frank Gore is, and then maybe the best back-five in the league, especially if Mason Crosby keeps being this up. Average it out, and you’re still not scoring enough points to compete with most of the people I’ll mention after you.
7. Corey
This is the first ranking based less on where you are than where you’re going, and where you’re going is to the land where Antonio Brown doesn’t play football, where Austin Ekeler goes back to the bench, where Sony Michel plays behind Rex Burkhead, where the Ravens’ offense is better than their defense, and where Bradley Chubb maybe never gets a sack again. Corey Ware, this is your 2019!But on the up, Brady looks as good as ever, so it doesn’t matter that Jared Goff sucks; Julian Edelman will play through anything; Jarvis Landry will gets more targets as Baker quits, like, wanting to be sacked all the time; Greg Olsen is having a renaissance; Jordan Hicks is tied with Luke Kuechly for the league-lead in tackles; Greg the Leg actually stands to benefit from the Rams’ touchdown regression; and Kenyan Drake is rumored to be on the trade block, just waiting for a contender to offer a third-rounder when their starter goes down for the year.
I don’t know what to say about Joe Mixon and TY Hilton. Obviously things are not good for Mixon, as his offensive line is bad and injured. Hilton’s offense is rolling just fine, but he’s injured. Oh shit, Mixon is also low-key injured with a mild ankle sprain sustained in Week 1. He’s not on the injury report, but that’s only because he’s adjusted to being hurt, i.e., running slower and not complaining out loud.
You can’t panic, though, because there’s nothing you can do anyway. So relax. Enjoy. Start Austin Ekeler without fear. But look at your team, realize that these are basically the best players available (except Benny Snell), and just do the Dolphins thing and play them until it’s time to trade them for draft picks. Stay the course. At worst, you’re in Tim’s position: your team is capable of scoring points, but it is unlikely that they score enough points to win more than they lose. If there’s one move to make, it’s trading Greg Olsen while his value is high. Someone out there believes this can last. (It’s Kennedy.)
6. Shelby
There isn’t any clear reason Shelby is winning, and for some reason I see this trend continuing. I mentioned how I feel about how Kennedy chooses his IDPs, but at least I can understand how Kennedy chooses his IDPs. I can guess how Shelby picks her IDPs, maybe. Carlos Dunlap was really good a few years ago. Maybe he was on her team and got a bunch of sacks. I know he went to Florida, and I know Corey drafted him in like the seventh round a few years ago. I’m not building a case; I’m just listing anything that might be evidence. But okay, Carlos Dunlap plays a lot of snaps and gets tackles, so I’m not hating on him; I just don’t get how one arrives at him when—okay, I was going to say there are better options, but I’ve clearly taken for granted what the DL free agent pool looks like since I drafted Myles Garrett and this is a form of privilege and we can acknowledge that and move on. Quincy Williams is a name I didn’t know until Telvin Smith retired this offseason. He is one of a few players who have eligibility at LB and at DB. He actually plays LB, but Shelby is deploying him at DB, which is key LBs tend to get more tackles than DBs. Welcome to “Duh, Sports,” I’m your host, anyone with Google. But at least we’re getting a sense of how things work while confirming the lede that Shelby wins with unconventional methods. Cool.
So, roster: Russell Wilson is the only player to surpass 50 points, probably the only player all year to surpass 50 points and have his real team and our-league team lose in the same week. Incredible. Behind him, there’s suddenly studly Derrick Henry, definitely the most valuable keeper in terms of when Shelby picked him up and what he provides; dude has scored double digits in eight straight weeks in our format. Todd Gurley is a problem. Jared Goff isn’t good, so teams are selling out to stop Gurley. The Rams are 3-0 against injured Cam Newton, the Saints losing Brees mid-game, and the Browns’ second-string secondary. (Jared Goff is the 20th ranked QB in fantasy in that conext.) Adam Thielen is amazing. He can do no wrong. Amari Cooper is very good, but he’s also benefitting from the Cowboys’ other starting WR being injured and from playing the Giants, Skins, and Fins to open the season—yes, that’s all three teams with both bad defenses and quarterback controversy. Jason Witten, why?! (Because he’s the #11 TE in fantasy.) DK Metcalf has, as Mina Kimes put it, “proved none of his doubters wrong… but it doesn’t freaking matter. It turns out if you’re bigger and stronger than any cornerback, you can do things in the NFL.”
Leighton Vander Esch has been a relative disappointment the last two weeks, but, you know what, tackles. The Josh Lambo pick at kicker is real weird, but he’s in Denver this week, so let’s go. Oh shit, duh, her kicker is west goat Robbie Gould, the progenitor of the Bears’ kicker curse. Where are we? OH! You guys might not believe this, but Shelby has on her roster just two QBs and (get this) one TE (not including IR’d Hunter Henry). Get it, sis! Her bench is not sexy, but it does have sleeper agents like Latavius Murray and Dede Westbrook who will have good weeks when you need them. Corey, offer Shelby a trade for Pats starter and first-down-god Rex Burkhead before it’s too late.
5. Doak
My team has fallen on hard times. Lamar Jackson is no longer the number-one overall player in fantasy after his fatal flaw was exposed against KC. Most of you know, or should know, that Lamar Jackson can’t come from behind because he lacks the arm strength and accuracy to take advantage of the clock late in games. The team has to run to win, and luckily those runs still sometimes go to Lamar. My final score looks a little better with that ten-yard touchdown run by Lamar late, but it’s distressing that he couldn’t do more before that against a meh defense, granted the weather was against him to since a wet ground slows fast feet and a wet ball is bad for passing accuracy. So whatever. This is false doubt, I suppose. But you know what’s not false: the assessment that I have the worst group of RBs in our league. Okay, maybe it’s a tie with Spencer, but at least Spencer has a second starter in Peyton Barber, and he has Saquon coming back. Behind Kerryon, all my RBs are not only in timeshares but they are the beta in those timeshares. My Damien Williams keeper (late keeper!) might become literally nothing in a few weeks. LeSean McCoy looks good, and Darrel Williams looked just fine when McCoy got hurt. So I have two guys named D. Williams playing for KC, and both of them appear to be McCoy’s backup, so thankfully only one of them is healthy because otherwise I might just start them both for a grand total of seven points. My WRs are very good, though. Mike Evans leads the league in 3-TD games, Michael Thomas is matchup-proof and good independent of QB-play, and Josh Gordon just became exactly as valuable as the draft capital I spent to get him (I traded up!). I also have Deebo Samuel and Mecole Hardman, upside rookies on offenses that lead the league in yards, scoring, and injuries to starters. Mark Andrews is my TE, and I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have Jimmy Graham. It’s going to be a source of conflict for me, as I’d really rather not have two TEs on my roster, considering I need as many RB lottery tickets as I can get, and I am perpetually burning one bench spot on human-rabbit’s-foot Gardner Minshew. Don’t ask me about my Jay Ajayi stash unless you’re offering a trade. I don’t want to talk about dude-with-no-team-but-my-team Jay Ajayi. I am ranked as high as I am despite my RB woes because my back-five is marvelous. Justin Tucker is better than Evan thinks he is. The Chargers don’t have a great defense (#22 in fantasy), but they do play Miami this week, and they have Joe Flacco next week and Mason Rudolph the week after that and Marcus Mariota the week after that and Mister Biscuit the week after that. The next time I think about DST will hopefully be Week 9 when LA hosts Green Bay. Myles Garrett has six sacks, which is second to the second-coming of LT (Shaq Barrett) and two more than any other player with eligibility at the DL position. Deion Jones is a top-10 DL and maybe the fastest linebacker in the league. I’m numb to the Keanu injury. When you lose your favorite player one week into a season, you almost feel grateful when you get him for two weeks the next season. Hey, maybe I’ll get him for three weeks in 2020. Keanu forever, baby, eighth round here we come. I’m not sure who my DB is going to be for tomorrow. Right now, it’s Swearinger, but I don’t love it. What I do love, believe it or not, are my chances of both making the playoffs and advancing to the championship. I don’t have the best team, but if I can just get a little lucky at RB while other people don’t, I can have this one.
4. Coleman
Two 200-point performances in three weeks will get you some clout, earn you a little respect. I don’t buy this as a trend; I definitely think it’s anomalous, but I respect it because it’s pretty much what Evan’s done the first three weeks, and the difference between you being 3-0 and Evan being 2-1 is literally two points in Week 2 even though you’ve outscored Evan by an average 21 points each of the other two weeks. You have arguably the second-best QB (which I think I’ve mentioned) and arguably the best RB now that Saquon is down and Kamara is Brees-less and Zeke is finally going to play against real teams (okay, that probably doesn’t matter). But okay, maybe McCafe is still second to Captain Cook since teams have decided they’ll just let him run in lieu of getting beat by Captain Kirk. But Coleman’s team is dominating not because of outliers but because of talented players who get a lot of volume. Mark Ingram is the lead back on the league’s most efficient running team, Tyler Lockett is getting double-digit targets and returning punts and kicks, in fact all five of Coleman’s WRs lead their respective teams in targets, Austin Hooper is second to Julio Jones in all receiving stats for Atlanta, and even Carlos Hyde is getting 13 carries a game. Shit, Raheem Mostert is getting the ball 13 times per game. This is unbelievable efficiency. I should really rank Coleman higher. But I won’t, and do you know why? Because Coleman’s team isn’t good. It’s all a mirage, Coleman sucks, he can’t manage a team, etc. I am not pumping up this team. I only rated it above mine because I wasn’t putting enough weight on… coaching, yeah, coaching. It’s… all about the management of… the roster because… volume doesn’t drive fantasy numbers, definitely isn’t the sole indicator of fantasy success, especially not when it’s combined with efficiency, double-especially when that efficiency isn’t the product of talented players in well-schemed offenses. Nope. Coleman sucks the big one, and I haven’t even talked about how Calais Campbell scored 18 on the bench and Coleman still had 216 points. Or how Corey Littleton and John Johnson are top-3 at their positions, or how Stephen Goatkowski is somehow the worst player on this team. Sucks the big one, is what this team does. And I mean it.
3. Brian
I don’t really believe this team is 4-0, err, 3-0. But I do see how you make the playoffs when you get start Dalvin Cook, Marlon Mack, and Melvin Gordon every week. I see how that’s in your favor when you have Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay filling the WR spots while Chris Godwin nurses a hip injury. I understand how you can have success when Jameis Winston plays to his potential and gets up around 25-30 points on top of all that, and I, you know, I can imagine that Marcus Mariota’s inability to throw far would benefit a short-to-medium pillar of consistency like Delanie Walker, and how if he’s your worst player, you probably should be the favorite in most of your games.
But I don’t like it, and so I’m glad that you have a crap back-five, starting with whoever this not-Bailey Cowboys kicker is, continuing with a Steelers D in just the worst season in franchise history (probably), and—shit, it ends there. Demarcus Lawrence, Joe Schobert, and Antoine Bethea are legit fantasy producers, even though Lawrence posted a zero in Week 2, Joe Schobert can’t do anything but tackle, and Bethea is, like, Corey’s age.
I don’t like it one bit. It’s a personal affront that we’ll be facing off the first week that Melvin Gordon starts for the Chargers this season. But you know what I know? Your team has bad matchups Week 16, so there! HA! You might steamroll us every week until then, but you, my friend, are the 2007 Patriots, and one of us (realistically Coleman) is Eli Manning!
2. Evan
Yeah I don’t like this either. It seems like fantasy football should have more parity, and okay, I guess it’s parity since Evan missed the playoffs last season, but c’mon, can we get Spencer or Oliver back in there before the decade rolls over? Isn’t that fair? Whatever. I’m into Evan’s team. I like that he mixed his Bucs and Eagles love and used his savvy to acquire key keepers that are doing what keepers are supposed to do (must be nice). I like that he’s “allowed” the fewest points besides Coleman (even though I know the stat is fraudulent) because it presents the possibility that he’ll be on the receiving end of enough smackdowns to even this thing out.
Look, this team is damn good: Wentz can still win MVP, even with that blip against Atlanta. The Chubb-Lindsay-Bell trifecta’s greatest strength to this point is that Bell has been it’s weakness. I’m not willing to say I was wrong about Philip Lindsay because my knock on Lindsay is that he’s too small to be a feature back, which is true, even if he’s putting up feature numbers while capped by a timeshare. BUT Royce Freeman has more yards per carry, so… there. Evan’s WRs didn’t look sexy at the draft but now Keenan Allen is the #1 WR and Larry Fitz has become a beam of pure energy. Curtis Samuel has also become more valuable now that the Panthers have a legit QB. Plus comeback player of the year Ronald Jones is just chillin’ on that bench, waiting for Philip Lindsay to crumble under all that punishment to that 190-lb. frame. The IDPs are basically flawless. JJ Watt broke out last week, and even though he’ll continue to be bottled up, he can’t be stopped, not completely. Lavonte is Lavonte. He is going to eat. And Evan may have stumbled into a league-winner in Tracy Walker. I know, who? Well, Tracy Walker was drafted in the third round of the 2018 draft, the just after Justin Reid and just before Ronnie Harrison, both of whom started last year while Walker lied in wait behind Glover Quin in Detroit. In other words, he’s not just a guy with a lot of fantasy points through three weeks. He’s got the pedigree to be a guy with a lot of fantasy points for years to come. The Bears defense is still the best. Coaching does not matter when you’ve got that much talent, and Chuck Pagano isn’t great but he’s good enough not to screw it up. My beef with this roster is Jake Elliot. I know you’ll probably keep him, but would you still keep him knowing that Matt Gay has more FP than him through three weeks?
1. Cameron
You, baby, you are killing this season, and you are repeating as champ. I don’t even need evidence when the team’s just this smokin’ HOT! Yeah! No doubt about it, YOU ARE WINNING IT ALL FOREVERRRRR
Week 3
30 Sean
27 Cameron, Coleman
23 Brian, Evan
20 Oliver
19 Doak
18 Corey, Spe
13 Tim
12 Shelby, Kennedy
(Again, average 13% of our total points)
Season Totals
74 Brian
71 Evan
70 Coleman
65 Doak
61 Kennedy
58 Cameron
57 Spe
52 Corey
49 Sean
48 Oliver
47 Tim
46 Shelby
It’s good to see some regression. Both Cameron and Sean stormed back from the basement this week with season-highs, while Brian and Kennedy both saw season-lows (granted, 23 isn’t quite as low as we’d like it).
I’m not recapping, except to say that we all had pretty solid weeks, even those of us who were disappointed in the outcomes. League scoring was up from our previous average of 145 all the way to 157. I don’t see it happening like that this week. That Thursday night game has already accounted for 200 points, so even if we were to top the 1887 we scored as a league, that Thursday night game would account for close to 11% of that. These numbers don’t mean anything, so let’s move on to the previews.
Either Brian or Evan will lose his first game this week, and it’s a total guess to say it’ll be Brian who wins. I see it being kind of a dud of a game between 3-0 teams, with the winning team hitting around 130 and the losing team about ten points behind. If I had to give a reason why Brian would win, I’d put a little bit of it on Jameis and a little bit on the Steelers D playing at home on Monday night. Evan might even be winning right up until the fourth quarter of the Monday night game. He will go to bed Monday a winner and wake up a loser. Brian’s best non-Jameis player will be Kenny G, and Evan’s will be Carson Wentz. Also, Chris Godwin will be active, and Brian will play him over Kirk.
Either Spencer or Kennedy will win his first game this week, and if you read the rankings, you know which way I’m leaning. Mahomes will continue to make it rain fire glitter all over the place, but Spencer’s RBs and WRs will fail to generate much, if any, momentum. There’s not much to be done. This is Spencer’s best lineup for better or worse. Kennedy won’t win this as much as Spencer loses it, but clearly Kennedy will have some heat for Spencer. He will hopefully add a TE who will play football this weekend, and everyone but Matt Ryan will have a good game. In fact, Kennedy might even drop someone and pick up another QB just to keep the chi of this game in its place. Kennedy’s best player will be Juju, and Spencer’s best non-Mahomes player will be Will Dissly.
Cameron and Shelby are already angling for playoff position in this matchup, and I think Shelby will continue to pull wins out of her butt. Take a deep whiff of this loss Cameron, because I see you going on a ten-game winning streak after it. Sky’s the fucking limit, brother. Anyway, Todd Gurley is going to get bottled up again, but Russell Wilson and DK Creatine will have another phenomenal outing. Again, there isn’t anything predictable that will swing this one. Maybe this Quincy Williams character has a pick-six; I don’t know. But Cameron’s got rough matchups. The Zeke vs. Kamara card (probably Fox’s Game of the Week) will disappoint for sure. Shelby’s best non-Russ player will be Derrick Henry, and Cam’s will be a toss-up between Smiths Harrison and Roquan.
Coleman is going to crush Tim, so I won’t be cute with the intro here. Tim got some serious starter fluid from the Green Bay Aarons, and he’ll get a little smoke from his IDPs, but ultimately this battle will be won by the skill players, and we know Coleman’s are superior. Coleman’s boys won’t explode for points, but Tim’s offense will be so stagnant it will appear he didn’t start a full lineup. I think McCaffrey leads outright, and I think Tim’s best non-Aaron will be Lenny, though modestly.
Corey and Sean is a weird matchup, and it’s even kind of a pass-the-torch game resembling that of its starting QBs. Not only will Josh Allen defeat Tom Brady and unseat the Pats from the top of the AFC East, Sean will defeat Corey to take both of these teams to 2-2. It will be an edged-out victory on both accounts, as neither Sean nor Corey have the players with blow-away matchups. Sean’s feather in his cap is two Chiefs against the Lions, as well as the superior IDPs. Corey should get a firework swan song from Ekeler against Miami, as well as a surprising 20 points from Jarvis Landry, but it won’t be enough without Mixon or Michel pulling their weight. It’s not like Sean will win by a lot. In fact, this should be a pretty awful matchup, where a=one team kind of just outlasts the other. If it were anyone but Mixon on Monday night, I’d give it to Corey here, but I think he’s going to get shut down in Pittsburgh. Sean’s best player will be David Johnson, and Corey’s will be Ekeler.
Oh, Oliver, how you’ve broken my heart already. I have to peel back the curtain for this one because it’s that good. Oliver texted me Thursday night after the game had already started. He alleged that he intended to start James White and bench Jordan Howard, and he asked if I might make the switch for him. I said, “Mmmhmmm likely story,” and he said, “Well fuck it. Let’s roll with it.” Howard put up 33, so maybe I should have just made the switch and said nothing, but I looked a gift horse in the mouth, and this is what I deserve. But still, I think I’ll win, mostly because Lamar will outduel Daniel Jones but also because I just have that feeling. The matchups actually favor Oliver, but I don’t believe in following the matchups. More often than not, it feels like the expectation based on the matchup is flawed. Maybe because coaches also know the matchups and do things to get around the obvious obstacles, maybe. My best player will be Lamar’s arm, and my second best player will be Lamar’s legs, and Oliver’s best player will definitely be Jordan Howard but his second best player will be Aaron Donald.
Hands in the air if you know the Bucs will lose by twentyyyyy! Woo!
