Week 1
29 Evan
24 Brian, Kennedy, Spe
23 Coleman
18 Doak
17 Shelby, Cameron
16 Oliver
14 Corey
13 Tim
12 Sean
231 First Downs / 1779 Points = 13%
Week 2
28 Doak
27 Brian
25 Kennedy
21 Tim
20 Corey, Coleman
19 Evan
17 Shelby
15 Spe
14 Cam
12 Oliver
7 Sean
225 FD / 1710 FP = 13%
Total (2 Weeks)
51 Brian
49 Kennedy
48 Evan
46 Doak
43 Coleman
39 Spe
34 Corey, Shelby, Tim
31 Cam
28 Oliver
19 Sean
(Obviously 13%)
Clearly (and inevitably), first downs have added some juice to our scores. But how do they stack up against traditional scoring? I’m thinking about the best way to look at the numbers with the intention of promoting our growth as far as maximizing fantasy scoring. So I thought I might look at the NFL averages per team per game, taking all the point-producing stats, then comparing them by the percentage of fantasy points they would make up for a team. Words, order, all fucked up, but keep trucking. I know it’s flawed, but let’s just start there and see what materializes. We are being scientists today, boys and girls, data scientists because by 2029 that’ll be the only job anyone has; they’ll just call it other shit. So here we go:
Passing yards: 249 / 25 = 10 FP
Interceptions: 0.8 * (-2) = -1.6 FP
Sacks: 2.5 * (-1) = -2.5 FP
Completions: 23 /10 = 2.3 FP
Passing TDs: 1.4 * 6 = 8.4 FP
Scrimmage Yards: 357 / 10 = 35.7 FP
Scrimmage TDs: 2.4 * 6 = 14.4 FP
First Downs: 18 / 1 = 18 FP
Fumbles: 1.1 * (-1) = -1.1 FP
Fumbles Lost: 0.5 * (-1) = -0.5 FP
Kicker Points*: ~7.5 FP
DST Points** = ~6 FP
IDP Points*** = ~26 FP
(*Field Goals Made: 1.4 * ~4 = ~5.6 FP
Field Goals Missed (inside 50): 0.2 * (-1) = -0.2 FP
XP Made: 2.1 * 1 = 2.1 FP
XP Missed: 0.2 * (-1) = -0.2 FP
**DST Base: 12 FP
DST Sacks: 2.5 * 1 = 2.5 FP
DST Fumbles Forced: 1.1 * 1 = 1.1 FP
DST Fumbles Recovered: 0.5 * 2 = 1 FP
DST Interceptions: 0.8 * 3 = 2.4 FP
DST Yards Allowed = 357 * (-0.02) = -7.14 FP
DST Points Allowed = 21.8 * (-0.25) = -5.45 FP
***For IDP points, I averaged our IDP starters over two weeks.)
122.6 points total doesn’t quite get us to our league average of 145, but it’s probably due to the fact that most high outliers are our starters while most low outliers are not (or something like that). Anyway, this number is just meant to a proxy for your team to figure out where your points come from. So here are those same numbers, but in percentages:
QB Yards (by air, minus neg stats): 5%
QB TDs (by air): 7%
Scrimmage Yards (minus negs): 28% / 5 = ~5.5% per skill position
Scrimmage TD: 12% / 5 = ~2.5% per skill position
First Downs: 15% / 5 = 3% per skill position
Kicker: 6%
DST: 5%
IDP: 21% / 3 = 7% per player
If my math makes sense, first downs provide more utility than touchdowns, and having just one player who racks up first downs is almost as important as having an average defense. Something unaccounted for here are the QBs who rush for first downs, such as:
6 Lamar
5 Dak, Wentz
4 Allen, Brissett, Cousins
3 Stafford(?), Watson
2 Jameis, Minshew, Rivers(?!), Fitzpatrick
Obviously some of those numbers will shake out differently over a larger sample, but the eventual top five on the season are probably already up there, with Kyler as a dark horse (though zero rushing FD so far).
If you want to find first down stats yourself, Google it. No site is on the cutting edge of displaying the first down stat. Sleeper, though it tracks it, doesn’t make it a sortable (or even viewable) stat for some reason. But because it’s where the points are, we already own a lot of the first downs out there. Still, there are a few first-down leaders available:
8 Burkhead
7 Crowder
6 Bennie Fowler (?)
5 Amendola, Beasley, Byrd, Cobb, Dissly, Dorsett, and then some
4 G. Edwards, J. Wilson, Fant, KeeSean, T. Quinn, Sanu, Stills, J. Washington
And here are some leaders on our rosters:
16 Marlon Mack
14 McCaffrey
12 Keenan, Andrews, John Brown, Saquon, Jacobs, D. Henry, Ekeler
11 Dalvin, Le’Veon
10 Thomas, Engram, Ridley, Golladay, Adams, Damien, Fournette, Gurley, Carson
And some other tidbits:
Davante Adams has 11 catches for 142 yards and zero touchdowns. His 10 first downs account for 41% of his points.
There are a multitude of players who only catch first downs or touchdowns.
All eight of DeSean Jackson’s receptions have gone for first downs or touchdowns. Same for all seven receptions of DK Metcalf, Demarcus Robinson, and Phillip Dorsett (on just seven targets!). But it gets more impressive.
Delanie Walker is 9 for 9.
Terry McLaurin is 10 for 10.
Julio, Tyrell, and John Ross are 11 for 11.
Calvin Ridley and Kenny G are a filthy 12 for 12.
Sony Michel has more points from first downs (10) than he has from yards (9.9).
Wentz has seven carries for eight yards, but his five first downs give him more rushing points than either Kenyan Drake or Joe Mixon (sorry, Corey) and just a shade fewer than Devonta Freeman.
I don’t know how anyone’s keeping their clothes on reading this stuff. I know Oliver’s pants have been off since he read the title.
Basically, the moral of the story is: get good players. If someone is the focal point of his offense, or even just the focal point of one aspect of the offense, get him on your team.
Okay, recaps.
Poor Little Rickless Bastards 172 — Live-Action Szechuan Sauce 167
When your QB leads the league in fantasy scoring, it’s hard to lose. At first, I was referring to Lamar leading the league in fantasy scoring for the year, but then I realized that Pat Mahomes led the league in scoring for the week. But since I led the league in this week’s crucial stat, first downs—28 to 15, in fact—and had the key piece (Garrett) of Spencer’s defense (Browns), not to mention the Mississippi Mustache stashed on the bench as a good luck charm. Sure, Spencer could have won had he benched Duke Johnson for John Brown, which he almost did, but who knew the Texans were going to start Carlos Hyde? Nobody. But look Spe, don’t fall victim to sunk cost or draft capital fallacies with Duke Johnson. He is a worse asset than he was in Cleveland. At least Cleveland planned to use him. The Texans appear comfortable just losing that 2020 fourth rounder they traded to the Browns back in August. OH here’seven more gasoline for that fire: Bill O’Brien negotiated the deal such that the pick becomes a third rounder should Duke be active for at least 10 games. The Texans are actually incentivized to figure out other options so they can recoup some draft value. Now, the Texans clearly don’t care about draft value, so you have that going for you. Wow, rails, where they be? I don’t know. I’m happy I’m 2-0, but I’m mostly just pumped that Lamar is doing all the things I thought he could GRANTED it’s been against crap competition, but this is why drafting for Week 1 is a game-changer (for me). The last time I started 2-0, I limped into the playoffs, but if I hadn’t started hot, I would’ve been exactly nowhere instead of having a chance at that sweet, sweet cash and that imaginary trophy. For Spencer, though, this is less than ideal. I mean, can we reasonably expect Mahomes to keep pumping 40 a week anymore than we can expect it of Lamar? Sure, FINE, the answer is that it’s more likely Mahomes does it, COOL THANK YOU FOR COMING BYE NOW.
My Fellow Kamaracans 171 — The Mortytown Locos 160
Baker played like crap again, but in fantasy, one 90-yard pass for double points is enough to turn a game, especially if you’re also benefitting from a 66-yard TD from John Ross in garbage time. That whooole Browns-Jets game was garbage time. It’s not like Cameron had a rough week then got bailed out in the 11th hour (cough Evan cough). His IDPs totaled 30 points, good for top-3 on the week and managed a combined 25 from his K and DST. Compare that 55 to the 42 combined from Kennedy’s back-five, and there you have the real difference in this game. I want to take a moment to remind everyone that we’re all complicit in Cameron getting Zeke this season. Except Spe, and maybe Coleman. But definitely the rest of us. Okay, technically not Corey, who traded out of the first round, but it’s not like he offered a trade back in once he saw Zeke fall. But Sean, who traded up to 4th overall to draft David Johnson, when David Johnson being the best player available was half the reason I traded out of that spot, that’s a master class in complicity. When I drafted two expensive-relative-to-their-volume WRs at 8 and 9, that wasn’t any better. Every 20-point game by Zeke, especially against you, should be a reminder that you had your choice and you doubted, and you should’ve Venmo’d your dues straight to Cameron if that’s how we’re playing this year. Luckily there’s no way Cameron’s team scores in the top-half most weeks. Sure, Zeke is good for 20 every week in this format—I bet you didn’t know he’s number one in first downs since entering the league; I did, which is why I hold myself more accountable than most, especially since my opportunity cost for taking Zeke just for the trade value was especially low. It wouldn’t be the first time I sold out, especially not the first time I sold out to Cameron.
Anyway, Kennedy’s team still looks good. Vance McDonald looks like he’s actually a part of the offense with Rudolph slinging it. The take that Chris Carson is losing work to Rashaad Penny is all smoke, and the Raiders’ promise that Josh Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game is straight fire. What’s especially nice about Kennedy’s team is the depth. He has three starting RBs who will see top-25 volume minimum, and he appears to be five-deep at WR, with DJ Chark emerging as the Jags WR1 and Courtland Sutton showing a solid floor against an impossible Bears matchup. His four catches for four first downs may seem a little fluky, but even if that efficiency wanes, it still shows he is a valuable member of that (albeit shitty) offense. And shit, man, if Matt Ryan can toss up 20 and 30 against two of the best defenses in the league on consecutive weeks, are we really concerned that he’s throwing a ton of picks while doing it? That’s Dirk Koetter’s offense by design. Throw more picks so you can throw for more yards later. Do I think Kennedy can right the 0-2 ship by continuing to score in the 150s every week? No, no I don’t. But then again, I don’t know anything.
Bench Point Hoarder 180 — Cowboy Morty 94
This was the equivalent of Pats-Dolphins, so it was only fitting that Tim had the 40-point New England defense starting. Take away those 40, and the 27 from Aaron Jones, and the 22 from Luke Kuechly, and Sean would’ve won by almost five whole points, you guys. You can’t just count him out because he doesn’t have a QB, or RBs, or a second WR. You have to give these guys time to develop. You have to offer Sean decent players for picks in next year’s draft and see if we can turn this into dynastic suckage.
But let’s pump Tim up some since we haven’t gotten that chance. After his league-bottom 88 last week—which might just be the fewest points any of us scores all season—Tim demanded that we take him seriously with just thundering domination by almost all of his key assets. Suddenly he has a defense with a double-digit floor, and IDP corps with the capacity to combine for 30 tackles in one week (and that’s including just one from Mack on Sunday). So Tim, it’s not your year, not after you passed on Zeke for some trash asshole in the first round, but you’re definitely not the worst. You have catapulted from potential laughing stock all the way to fully mediocre in just one week. Just keep imagining that rising ceiling, just keep floating toward it, and don’t look down. Leonard Fournette’s 15 carries for -3 yards before he busted off a 66-yarder, don’t look at that. Aaron Rodgers clearly losing command of his team and the football itself, ignore it. Having nothing on the bench to sustain you should you suffer even one injury, that’s not real until it happens, Tim, just keep doing what you’re doing.
Sean, good job. Good effort. Here, have some orange slices and a Gatorade, buddy. You know what, it’s easy to feel good after winning a big game, but it takes character to lose and show up the next week. So you just keep showing up, pal, and boy… will you… grow, yeah, grow. Good job, good effort.
Hot Garbage 135 — I Eat My Own Poop 92
Note here the difference between the subtle reverse-jinx and the over-the-top self-fulfilling prophecy. Granted, Shelby didn’t really face a full team. Could Brees have thrown a touchdown instead of and interception before hurting his thumb, sure. Definitely. That wouldn’t have made this matchup anymore than Saints-Rams was, but it at least wouldn’t strike such a solid asterisk. Had Oliver opted to start Garappolo and a semi-legitimate kicker and kept Marvin Jones in over MVS, he would’ve won. I know that’s retroactive garble, not to mention an unfair slight on Shelby’s earned victory, but Oliver’s team isn’t the burbling sinkhole that Sean’s is. It’s just not well-managed, doesn’t have the amount of upside that Oliver thinks it does because it’s mostly upside guys. It’s sexy but trying so hard to be only sexy that it presents as vapid. Oliver’s team is bad pornography, where there’s a plumber with great abs, but the pipes here are actually clogged and all he’s got is lube in his Drano bottle. Pull your pants up and get yourself a goddamn wrench in the form of a solid flex play before you’ve got a real mess on your hands.
Shelby, there’s no segue that can save us. Hot Garbage needs to ride this reverse-jinx till the wheels fall off, but don’t help them fall off by keeping Kirk Cousins on your team any longer. You have a QB, and his name is Russell Wilson. He is one of the five best QBs in the league, and you got him for screaming value then paired him with his rookie WR who just might end up leading the team in all receiving stats by year’s end. Lean in. Cousins has no trade value, even in a week where two teams lost QBs for a significant stretch of the season. Just like backup TEs have no value in a league where some people don’t have starting TEs. Cut the fat and go get some upside. You and your girlfriends have called for a stripper and are now opening the door not to 90s John Leguizamo Luigi but to your horror 90s Bob Hoskins Mario. Even Randall Cobb and Rex Burkhead are sexier than six combined QBs and TEs. But hey, you’re 2-0, and until you lose, you can really do no wrong in a game where nothing that appears to matter ends up actually mattering more than a few times a week.
Fart69 172 — Team 4 150
I love Corey’s team-name troll. It’s truly one of those special inside-baseball aspects of our league that you can’t explain to anyone and just have to appreciate. It’s beautiful. As is his team, even with Antonio Brown now all but out of the league, at least for 2019. Tom Brady still has weapons, and he’s still the one true GOAT. While Brees and Eli and Big Ben fall, Brady rises higher. This isn’t a jinx. I respect Tom Brady. But not even Tom Brady and his top targets can do enough to match the output of Dalvin Cook, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay this season. Week 1, that quartet dropped 65 in the melee. IN Week 2, it was 105. Yes, for future notice, Brian can bench his entire back-five and beat Sean’s team handily. For Corey, it has to be a little bit of a bummer to score 150 and lose, much like it was for Kennedy these last two weeks, but the silver lining is that this was his production in a relatively rough week, with Edelman and Mixon and the Ravens D grossly underperforming. Then again, Olsen had 110 yards and four first downs, BUT TY Hilton’s double-digit floor was relegated to the bench. So yeah, the outlook is strong for Team 4.
The outlook is also strong for Fart69. Brian has put up big numbers without Jameis Winston having a big game yet. He’s not, like, on the verge of exploding into the Mahomes zone of weekly earth-shattering production, but he is going to have some huge games. He’s also going to have shitty games. When Jameis has to change the protection on the road, things tend to go poorly. Young QBs can’t handle the crowd noise because they just don’t yell loud enough at the line. They call out changes in protection, have no recourse but to assume they’ve been heard, then get some unexpected feedback real quick. Then they get flustered and do that shit again. Look, we don’t have to do a Jameis segment every time I talk about Brian’s team, but I can’t sit here and talk about how Brian got nothing from his DL spot and still finished third in scoring on the week. I will say that having Marlon Mack deal with lower-body injury this early in the season is no bueno. Any situation in which Brian is forced to start either Adrian Peterson or Rashaad Penny (even though they had good games in Week 2) is a bad situation. His best 2019 involves his starters staying healthy at least until Melvin Gordon decides to go back to work.
Mr Lunas Le’Veon the Moon 109 — The Squanchers 107
If Evan had just started Phillip Lindsay over Ronald Jones like literally anyone else who had that option, I would be ten dollars richer and I wouldn’t have spent the entirety of the Browns-Jets game waiting for a huge run of rom either Nick Chubb or Lev Bell. I also would have liked to see the rejuvenated Larry Fitz starting over Alshon, so hopefully that’s what we’ll see this week as Evan maybe hopes to score lots of points and then lose? I mean, you don’t have to choose a cash game that’s objectively in your favor; parity is good. But you might want to give yourself a chance to win your matchup and win cash, especially if your team is stacked and coming off a down week. But a lot of smart gamblers hedge, so fine. Hedge away. Just start Larry Fitzgerald during his renaissance and make us all happy.
All Coleman needed was for OJ Howard to get eleven yards and a first down, which I definitely thought was beneath his floor going into Thursday’s game, but I don’t care that OJ didn’t produce fantasy numbers. Part of OJ’s brilliance, a big part of what separates a first-round TE from the pack, is his phenomenal blocking. You might not get points for it, but having a dud game doesn’t tank OJ’s trade value. I mean, Shelby is dying to get another underwhelming TE on that bench. Go get yourself some Latavius Murray to complete the plodder trifecta with him, Hyde, and Ingram while you still can. You know what’s weird? It feels like everyone has a bunch of good receivers. I mean, I know Sean doesn’t, but it seems like everyone else does. And I don’t mean, like, three good receivers; I mean every one of our benches seems to have one legitimate receiver with no way of cracking our starting lineups. Is the pass:run ratio in the NFL that severe?
And now for the predictions.
Spencer’s gonna get his first win, delivering Evan his first loss. Mahomes will drive the ball straight through the wind and rain and connect for 300 yards and 4 TDs despite the imposing gusts flinging the ball straight sideways when anyone else tries to do anything with it. Part of the problem for Evan will be that his RBs’ respective teams will all be blown out, leaving them with low volume combined with inefficient touches. Even the Bellcow himself will have difficulty escaping single-digits. Evan’s saving grace will be the play of his DST and IDPs in strong matchups. It won’t be enough to win the game, but it might be enough to win the cash. Spencer’s best non-Mahomes player will (finally) be George Kittle. Evan’s best player will be Keenan Allen. (Yes, that means I think Wentz will struggle against Detroit.)
Oliver will also get his first win, but it will be very close, close enough that Oliver will drop the Cardinals kicker in favor of Matt Bryant for some Monday night action. Of course it doesn’t matter when the points are scored, but if perception is reality, then what, huh? So Gardner Minshew II can’t technically affect the game from my bench, but maybe that’s just your closed mind affecting your reality, mannn. But anyway, Corey will get points from his Pats against the Jets, but the Texans will be the first team to put a lid on Austin Ekeler this year, preferring to be beat by Philip Rivers straight up. Otherwise, most of Corey’s team will score well, except the Ravens D against Mahomes, which I covered earlier. Oliver will win despite starting Devin Smith and Logan Ryan because Garappolo, Woods, and Kelce will have monster days. Actually, I can’t lie. Looking at the rosters side bye side, Corey is the easy favorite. Whatever Oliver does to win, it won’t be anything I can reasonably predict. In fact, the lineup I’m looking at probably isn’t his final lineup. Corey’s best player, in the loss, will be Tom Brady.
Only one of Shelby or Fart69 will get their first loss this week, and I think it will be Shelby. Brian’s team is just too dominant, especially if Shelby’s TE gets injured halfway through the game. Shelby’s players have the better matchups, but Brian’s quadfecta doesn’t give a fuck about matchups, especially if this is a Jameis Winston game. You know who’s gonna have a surprising 15-point game? Demarcus Lawrence just destroying Josh Rosen’s chance to be a starter beyond this season, possibly injuring him but definitely making him see ghosts the rest of the year. Still, best player: Dalvin Cook, followed closely by Chris Godwin. Shelby’s best non-Russ player will be Todd Gurley in the first game McVay unleashes him.
Only one of Sean and Kennedy can get a win this week, and while you know I want it to end in a tie down to the hundredths place, I think it’s pretty clear Kennedy will not just win but win by lots and lots of points, even though Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs will have terrible games. Because the thing is: most of Sean’s players will have terrible games because terrible games are their average production through two weeks. Granted, not a great sample size, but they’re not having terrible games because of statistical anomaly, nor are they experiencing the precursor to impending regression. They suck, and they are playing against teams that don’t. Exceptions: Josh Allen and Brandin Cooks. Techincally David Johnson doesn’t suck, but his usage sucks enough to drown his fantasy output. The IDPs will be good. Kennedy is benching Juju now, but I think he’ll switch him in before the games begin. His IDPs are trash but not trash enough to give Sean a chance. Kennedy’s best player will be Chris Carson. Sean’s will be Josh Allen.
I like the Tim and Cameron matchup because as far as I know they still haven’t met in person, so it’s just like a fight with Shadow Link or the Knight of Mirrors, and as is the theme of this season, the win will end up going to the Patriots either way. In this case, it’s the Pats defense that will do it. The Jets were able to escape Monday’s game without turning the ball over, but they won’t be so fortunate against Belichick. Tim clearly has the luck after Fournette fluked his way to twelve points already. So Cam has Dake and Zeke going against Miami, but Corey had Brady and Michel put up a combined 46 in Week 2 and it wasn’t enough to win his matchup. Even if Dak and Zeke combined for 60 (not happening), none of Cam’s other skill players are going to do much. I predict that Cam won’t win this game or the cash game this week. Tim’s best non-Rodgers, non-Pats player will be Frank Gore if he starts him. Cam’s best non-Cowboys player will be Roquan Smith.
Finally, I play Coleman, in a Lamar-Deshaun matchup we won’t see for real until Week 11. Though those are the big names, they won’t be the high scorers. The Chargers defense is much too creative to let Deshaun do much with those greasy legs (it’s happening), and the mushy field in KC will slow Lamar. Maybe they can throw for big yards and TDs, but I think Deshaun is more likely to do that than Lamar. Still, it’s my WRs and Coleman’s RBs that will make or break whoever wins this game, and I won’t predict it, not because I’m afraid (confident laugh); I just don’t want to be accused of a jinx in either direction. I will remind you that I have the good luck charm in Minshew and bring to your attention that Coleman is benching OJ Howard in plus matchup, but I will admit I feel uneasy. My best player will be Mike Evans (finally), and Coleman’s will be Christian McCaffrey.
Now… go out there and… get some first downs.
