The trope of Week 1 is that the viewers always overreact. The truth is there’s some cause for concern. It’s one thing if a player doesn’t put up stats. It’s another if he doesn’t play. Neither of those should worry you in a one-week sample, but let’s not underreact to warning flags either. If one of your guys is hurt already, and he didn’t put up stats in Week 1, worry. Julio Jones is the only player I can think of who consistently plays well when he’s hurt. He’s constantly in limit-breaker mode. Most injured players, especially older players, play poorly. Aaron Rodgers got carted off in Week 1 last year, and even though he came back and pulled some heroics in that game, he had a pretty rough season, especially by Aaron Rodgers standards.
So my goal today is to talk you through how to worry the right way. I’ve honed the craft of worrying through practicing a childhood fear of two-wheeled vehicles, watching all of the films of Woody Allen, and working at or below the poverty line pretty much my entire adult life. If you need worries, I’ve. Got. You.
I’m not willing to rank your teams yet, but I will soon. I’m not “waiting for the data” or any 2019 shit like that. I just want to you to uncomfortably shift in your seats a little, maybe one or two more weeks, whatever feels the squirmiest. So I’m just arranging us in order of point scored in Week 1. I don’t think I’m going to do anything gimmicky, but when you have to write a couple thousand words to feel accomplished, sometimes you lean into patterns that have worked in the past. I’m not into formulae, so I’m planning just to Pollack this thing today (yes, Saturday).
Yeah, Tim, you know I’m starting at the bottom, where you sit with your 88 points despite the only change in scoring being the addition of more points for things your players were doing already. Tim, keeping Aaron Jones was one of the more obvious keeper decisions in the league, but benching him against the fiercest front seven in the NFL seems equally obvious, especially when you were starting Frank Gore in your flex spot and leaving Sammy Flat-Earth’s 43 points rotting on your bench. You have a lot to forward, too. Watkins’ 43 wouldn’t even have won you the week. Looking forward, Watkins is Mahomes’ number one for at least a month, and Aaron Jones doesn’t face the Bears again. Oh shit, wait you already had Mahomes’ number one starting, but that trash asshole got his 180-lb. ass busted by a DBU Hall-of-Famer Jalen Ramsey and will be on the shelf for the aforementioned month, minimum. But wait, thing to look forward to: Aarons Rodgers and Jones only face the second-best defense in the league—wait, good news, I swear: your IDPs are stacked, and I mean that. Mack faced a top-5 left tackle and still put up 7 points, and he gets a great matchup against Denver’s bottom-10 line this week. We already know Kuechly is trending toward MVP territory, and though Landon Collins’ 6.5 in Week 1 doesn’t look impressive, he played all the defensive snaps and got all those points on tackles. The money stats will come, and the superlative usage is a good sign. Though the NFL matchups lean toward an 0-2 start for your team, your matchup against Sean might actually cancel out any cause for concern. Speaking of concern, don’t worry about Jared Cook’s meh day or Lenny’s fumble (first of his career). Pay attention to the Packers; the Bears defense is very good, but the problem for the Packers seemed to be that they ran the plays too slowly, which to me could be any of three issues, ordered most to least likely: 1) they aren’t installing plays properly in practice so they don’t quite know what they’re doing; 2) they haven’t fully developed the muscle memory needed to execute them quickly; 3) the plays are simply inefficient, and believe me, Dirk Koetter has made me an expert on inefficient plays. If they take too long to develop, they are garbage against grown men. But anyway, Tim, some minor adjustments: give Frank Gore a short leash, drop Mister Biscuit outright, keep riding the players you drafted high, and you have enough Packers already.
Seanny boyyy, scraping out just 102, this is bad for you, man, real bad! I love it! After fluking your way to championships and playoffs, you find yourself where you belong in the pack struggling with the rest of us against the mighty Evan/Brian/Cam trifecta. Trust me, it’s a good thing. People will trade with you again, and you will stop being the bane of the Commissioner’s note when you win. I’ll actually celebrate your success now that’s it’s so unlikely. Smile! But bad news, dude: you have to figure out how to field a team now. You can’t blame your problems on the fantasy gods anymore; that’s some 2nd millennium shit. Time to rely of science. If a mobile quarterback has a bad shoulder and a bum ankle, he’s probably not scoring very many fantasy points, especially once you’ve already got a week of proof that he straight-up isn’t running and looks bad throwing. Your best player is David Johnson. No team whose best player is David Johnson has ever amounted to anything in the history of fantasy. The only year he took his fantasy teams to the promised land was the year he was barely even drafted because he was Chris Johnson’s rookie backup no one had heard of, before the rookie RB boom. But false-panic aside, you have five legitimate options at RB, and somehow Devonta Freeman looks the worst. He also played a stout defense, so we reserve judgment, especially since his schedule seems pretty cush. You know your WRs are bad, so I won’t waste time expounding except to say that you absolutely have to trade one of your RBs to Coleman for Terry McLaurin before it’s too late. If you’re concerned about Zach Ertz, don’t be. Though he doesn’t project to dominate targets, he will still be playing heavy snaps in the middle of an elite offense. What should concern you is all of your WRs, which I’m not intending to harp on; I’m just realizing that Brandin Cooks is your top option, and the Rams proved to be super comfortable deploying their ancillary weapons, especially when they get near the goal line. Cooks has to be started every week to get those inevitable boom games, but you must must must get something more than Danny Amenducttape in there as your floor-play. I would even try to see if Oliver is willing to do a deal like Breida for Woods now that Coleman is banged up and Oliver is starting personified upside in the RB slot on a weekly basis. Though your kicker is money, and your IDPs are elite, you’re not going to win without something real at QB and WR.
Cameron, sweet Cameron, just a shade under 29 years old, engaged, budding family man, ascending in his career, thought maybe 2019 would be his year. Maybe in another league Cameron, maybe in another dimension where you didn’t take the bait on the fuck-shit-stack that is Baker Mayfield to Odell Bless’m in the offense of a HC/playcaller who is transitioning from calling plays in the booth to managing everything on the sidelines.
(Tangent: Everyone’s darling Browns look like dog shit.
The offensive line started off not good, and the starting LT tried to solve that problem by getting kicked out of the game. The offensive line can only be a weakness if there is an offensive line (insert meme of that dude pointing to his head). Baker Mayfield responded to adversity by giving the ball to the other team on the final four possessions, which… yikes. But this: the Browns scored first in this game, then the starting LT got ejected, then the Titans went on a run, then the Browns scored again in the third quarter, at which point it was 15-13 Titans. Then Derrick Henry broke loose for a 75-yard score. Then Baker threw two picks inside his own 35; both lead to Titan touchdowns. Suddenly it’s 36-13 Titans. The Browns turn it over on downs, the Titans punt, and Baker caps off a marvelous performance with a pick-six to Malcolm Butler.
This game got out of hand and the young QB tried to do too much to get back into it. It’s easy for a defensive mind like Mike Vrabel to scramble the head of a young QB, especially when the QB’s down late, trying to come back. Tennessee had a major advantage being up by two scores to begin the fourth quarter. Once Mayfield threw one pick, it was clear he would need to throw for the rest of the game. And again, the Browns’ offensive line is the weakness of their team, and they lost a starter in the first quarter. The Titans defense is at least good, possibly great with all those athletes, so it would have taken a lot of busts in coverage or broken tackles by Mayfield for the Browns to come back. When the score resets to 0-0, the Browns should be fine. Not great, not the media darling they were a week ago, but good enough to keep starting the key dudes in fantasy.
And don’t get me wrong: Kitchens did the McVay thing by hiring a DC-turned-HC-turned-DC to take care of the defense while he focuses, but this is hardly Coaches Boone and Yoast on the sidelines here. This is Cinderella in her pumpkin carriage, and the bell is on its twelfth chime.)
But back to Cameron and his 119 points: the Zeke karma will come, even if it doesn’t come in the form of Zeke sucking. But still, if we’re not overreacting to Week 1, Cameron has a strong roster. Stud QB, 2 stud RBs, 1.75 stud WRs, two stud TEs (not including Gronk), and a stud RB in his fle—what’s that? Derrius Guice is out for at least eight weeks? And Cameron has what behind him? A backup RB, a concussed WR, and Joe Flacco’s second read? But Gronk’s coming back, right? He can just flex Gronk, right, I mean, there’s no way Gronk would see his touches limited by the presence of Edelman, Gordon, and AB, not to mention a quality ground game, I mean, he’s GRONK, right? Shit, maybe keeping James White over Baker was the move along. But idk, you’ve got the kicker and the DST and the IDPs. Maybe you can survive a streaky flex option like a John Ross, or you can actually start two TEs every week when they’re both playing heavy snaps and drawing tons of targets. Just because it didn’t come close to working in Week 1, that doesn’t mean you have to pivot just yet. Just be patient. It’ll work out.
On the real, Kamara and Zeke are top-4 RBs in fantasy, and Cameron’s the only team with two of those. And he brought in floor-play Dak Prescott to take over if Baker’s Browns become completely incontinent as the season progresses. Maybe Cameron’s team operates just like the Pats: no matter the variables, they all eventually average out to 10+ wins and playoffs due to inferior competition (myself included).
With 133 points, Oliver is one of three losing teams that did enough to win in a normal week. We saw the stats before the draft: the best team has only averaged 129 points per season, a number which might rise to maybe 139 after first downs. Our league mean still projects to be in the neighborhood of 127 or so. And Oliver got his 133 without anyone but Brees or Hopkins having a spectacular game. In fact, he had the worst RB combo of the week, and he only got one point from Aaron Donald and two points from homer-pick Justin Simmons, both way below projection. But here’s an opportunity to panic if there ever was one: Aaron Donald and JJ Watt each started this season without the teammate who helped them the most last year. Facing double teams or having the play schemed away from them almost every play, the odds are against these two approaching twenty sacks again this year. But heed the one-week sample. Donald went against a well-respected interior in Carolina, and Watt played the best combination of offensive tackles outside of Philly. Now, was Oliver close to hitting that 159 he needed to eat the W? No, he would’ve realistically needed two sacks from Donald, five solo tackles and a PD from Simmons, and an extra 30 yards and a score from Miles Sanders. The thing is: those players will put up those numbers at some point this season. So stay calm. Oliver re-added Touchdown Malcolm Brown, and he’s basically held his draft-day roster minus a couple tweaks. He’s trusting himself, and this can be good. It definitely beats freaking out and losing your moorings to start the year (yes, my hand is raised). Oliver doesn’t have a starting RB, which is bad, but he does have enough RB depth to sustain him if Brees, Hopkins, Woods, Kelce, and the back half of the lineup perform to expectation until a clear path to RB success emerges. Hmm, now that I’ve gotten here, I don’t know if Oliver would go for a Breida-for-Woods swap, even with the sweetener. Oliver is better off picking from his cadre of RB depth than starting any of his bench WRs. Ultimately, Oliver employed a delayed strategy. Oddly enough, he gets his “rematch” against Shelby this week, which, while technically meaningless, might sway the fantasy winds in Oliver’s favor. Oliver might even want to flex Malcolm Brown against Shelby’s Gurley, just to swirl those winds and conjure up the extra chaos necessary to prevail.
Spencer appeared to have a really good first three hours on Sunday. He was on pace to land in the top three or four, easy, with a solid shot at the cash. But dome-god Matt Bryant was held without an attempt, and the Chargers D was unable to tackle Marlon Mack; the combination knocked about 20 points off Spencer’s projected total, and 20 points was all he needed to get that 6th spot over Brian. And he still had a real shot after the late afternoon games, with James Conner and supposed-starter Duke Johnson left to play. But we know how those games went. So despite Spencer’s probable focus on DeSean’s 35 and Tyrell’s 20 on the bench, he realistically would’ve only started either over John Brown’s 24, so even the 11 extra from DeSean wouldn’t have been enough. But again, don’t panic. Bryant didn’t play poorly; he just didn’t play. That can be distressing, but that Vikings-Falcons game was the kind of game that only happens to each team once a year. (The Lions-Cards game was similarly wonky.) Even the Texans’ plan of using Carlos Hyde as kind of the Latavius to Duke’s Kamara is good for Duke because it will lead to more efficient usage. I haven’t changed my stance on that WR room, though: that’s a weekly headache, but at least it appears that you could miss the mark and still get solid production. What can you do? There’s really no course of action but to hold and hope that the league doesn’t consistently average more than the 142 you posted. Considering only Mahomes and Brown really exploded for points, you can probably expect a pretty high average. If the DB position continues to underperform, and you’re not sure what to do, there is no shame in throwing a WR at desperate team with a decent DB, even if you think they’ll say no. Matt Bryant gets one more week, though. After that, you might want that golden-toed Panthers rookie who apparently hits 59-yarders in the rain like it ain’t no thang.
Kennedy (154 points, 4 shy of 6th place) got more out of Josh Jacobs in Week 1 than he can reasonably expect to get going forward. I mean, I guess 20+ touches and 100+ yards is a reasonable enough expectation, but the 2 TDs, well, based on how little the Raiders are working with, even the two TDs could happen at an irregular rate compared to what we’re used to. Remember, it is 1999 in Oakland, and the RB/TE stack will get more work there than they will anywhere (except maybe Saquon/Engram). Hmm. I know it’s an overreaction when I suddenly like the Raiders for fantasy. Dude, the Raiders suck. I think Denver is worse than we thought they could be, but the Broncos are getting better. The Raiders’ utter lack of talent will catch up to them, but still, there’s enough evidence to assume they will feed Jacobs and Waller. Anyway, Kennedy should continue to feed Matt Ryan, who despite getting shutout most of the game ended up with over 20 FP in an awful matchup. I’ll admit it: dude can play. Kennedy has a good roster from top to bottom (except DL), and it’s a bummer to lose with 150 points because at some point, you’re going to lose games because you can’t score near as many points, and it only takes seven losses to end up completely out of this thing. Outside of Ryan, Jacobs, and Carson, Kennedy’s team underperformed and still ended up with 150, so it’s reasonable to assume if he keeps playing this lineup, he’ll win more than he loses.
(While we’re here:
The Steelers scored three points.
The Patriots dominated a familiar foe, and they would probably dominate 99 of 100 times. The Patriots are just that good against unprepared teams. The Steelers have survived on incredible talent for a long time. This is the first year we’re not sure what they have. We’re sure James Conner isn’t as good as Lev Bell, and we’re sure Juju isn’t as good as AB—sorry, Kennedy, we are. We’re sure the Steelers line is getting old, and we’re sure it’s at least marginally worse without Marcus Gilbert. The defense is getting better, but clearly it’s not good enough yet to challenge a great offense. It’s easy to pull the ripcord and get off this ride. On top of the objective stuff, there’s some subjective stuff to worry about, too. It appeared for years that Ben and AB and even Bell made up a lot of shit on the fly. The word ‘chemistry’ has been used in a headline to the Steelers’ credit, something along the lines of, the Steelers chose chemistry over talent, but really the Steelers bucked chemistry and talent for the sake of sanity, and here’s the thing about sanity in football: it’s not an asset; it’s a borderline detriment. The Steelers are going to trade peace of mind for wins this season and probably definitely not be the division winners they’re purported to be. OR they’re going to do what they’ve always done under Tomlin and figure out how to win enough to at least be in the hunt in a maybe-shaky AFC North. By my count, only Conner and Juju are starting in our league, and to that I’d say: if you thought they were top-15, treat them more like top-30/top-40 and see if they’re still your best option. We’re not outright benching good players, but we’re also not leaning into pain. Expect the Steelers to be good after their Week 7 bye.)
But wait, I think the premise was about making people worry, and I got uncharacteristically vanilla talking about a team because they did well one week. So why did the Falcons totally suck for most of their first game? Is Minnesota that good? Probably, but I want to remind everyone that Dan Quinn is part of the Pete Carroll coaching tree, and the Pete Carroll coaching tree has gone exactly nowhere except for Dan Quinn, a defensive coach whose defense in Atlanta has ranked in the 20s three of his four seasons. They have paid Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and Deion Jones and Grady Jarrett, signs that they think they are inside their championship window. Quinn fired his offensive and defensive coordinators at the end of 2018, which normally only happens when a coach is given an ultimatum of fire them or we’ll fire you. 2019 is a make or break season for Dan Quinn, and I don’t believe he is up to the task. Hmm. That’s actually cause for optimism since the defense tanking would inflate the offense’s numbers. Uhhh, Vance McDonald and Tyler Boyd kinda suck… I guess? So if you’ve got a shitty TE and a shitty DL, maybe your ceiling is just capped enough to lose you those seven games? Maybe you can worry about that?
Hey, Brian won the first game despite many of us agreeing during the draft that his team was a hodge-podge but that he’d eventually mold a workable roster. Welp, with 158 in Week 1, he is safely ahead of schedule on that front, and that’s with Jameis trying to tank it all by himself. But Brian got double-digits out of every other offensive starter, and he averaged 30 apiece at each RB position. 60 from his RBs to best Kennedy’s 52. That eight points was critical in Brian holding off the late surge from Jacobs, Fairbairn, and Jackson Monday night, meanwhile Brian was worried about Spencer’s combo Conner Sunday night and Duke Monday night coming from behind to take him. But Fart69 banana-thrusted through adversity, and now Brian just needs Dalvin Cook and Marlon Mack to score a combined four TDs every week to deliver him to the playoffs because, yo, this team is still not good. Jameis ain’t no puppy, but Delanie Walker definitely ain’t no 20-a-week TE. I think the craziest, most amazing thing about Brian’s team is that he’s streaming half of his starting lineup. Even Delanie, who looks like a starter, can get cut as soon as he puts up one stinker. But yeah, the K, DST, and all three IDP spots are up for grabs on a weekly basis, making this team very Belichickian in that it will try to maximize versatility but also very Black Mirror in that we have no idea how it will look or how it will make us feel. Did I mention Brian also had two bench WRs in double digits, so he would have won pretty much no matter how he set his lineup, even though his IDP total of 19 was 3rd lowest in the league—Evan’s 10.85 was worst, behind Oliver’s 12. For comparison, the league-best was Coleman’s 39.5. But so Brian also has Melvin Gordon probably coming into play around Week 8, just in time to dominate the home stretch and probably the playoffs. The cause for worry is obviously the sextuple stream on the back half of the lineup, especially because Brian doinked half of them (K: 5, DL: 4, DB: 3). If he continues to lose that lottery, eventually he will lose games when his offense stalls. My advice: continue to suck. I get serious activity in my brain’s reward center when my team outscores yours.
Corey scored 163, but on the surface the math seems impossible. Jared Goff, Joe Mixon, and Sony Michel combined for… 17 points while Julian Edelman, TY Hilton, Austin Ekeler combined for… 76 points. So if there’s a team that embodies the reasons we don’t overreact to Week 1, it’s this team. I mean, can we expect the first group to struggle while the second group thrives? Absolutely. In fact, it’s my expectation. However, where Corey might get a little nervous is here: all six of those players could struggle this season. Edelman gives up touches to Mr. Big Chest—wait, Corey has him, too—and Ekeler (eventually) gives way to Gordon. Hilton could be fine, but no one knows what to think of that Colts offense, especially with our only “data” coming from a matchup against a Chargers defense with a weak interior line and two starting DBs on IR. Three reasons not to panic, though: Greg the Leg, and Jordans Hicks and Poyer, a trio that combined for 41 on stats they can replicate most weeks. Hicks had full OT period that surely helped him add to that tackle total, but he’s the Mike behind a weak line on a team that will be forced to defend the run plenty. Poyer’s nine tackles, including 1.5 stuffs and a sack, ranges toward his ceiling, but his floor is like six; dude makes his way to the ball in a hurry. And going back to the Goff thing, I feel like Corey’s going to switch to Brady unless the matchup is, like, Chicago. It’s a little kooky to start Brady, Michel, Edelman, and Brown, so if there’s any move to make—especially with Mixon iffy for at least a couple weeks and Ekeler iffy in the future—it would be to try moving Michel and a WR for an even better RB.
Shelby named her team Hot Garbage at halftime of the early games Sunday. Henry, Gurley, Thielen, and Westbrook had combined for maybe twenty points, half of them Thielen’s, and she went tapped into that Mathias blood and pulled the reverse-jinx before it was too late. By the end of the first games, each of those players hit double-digits, and Derrick Henry went one step further and got 15 points in one play. From there, the snow kept gathering, mostly during the Cowboys-Giants game (for reasons I can’t get my head around). I mean, Amari Cooper, the Cowboys, and Leighton Vander Esch were all good picks, especially with matchups against NYG, WAS, and MIA to start the season. The one I can’t fathom is Antoine Bethea. Though he had over 100 tackles last year, it was in a different system than the one they run in New York, but then again, he had seven tackles on Sunday, so maybe I’m overthinking what a good DB does, especially since my DB (drafted in the 8th round, no less) scored just a single point. But this is about worries, so here’s one: Russell Wilson would have thrown the ball even less had the Bengals not had such a good game passing the ball. Now, we can debate what’s worse between the Bengals offense and the Seahawks defense. On Sunday, Seattle rolled out easily the worst defense they’ve had in the Russell Wilson era. It won’t always be this way. In a few weeks, Clowney will have learned the system and star DT Jarran Reed will return from PED suspension. The defense will suddenly be quite good, the way Belichick’s defenses this decade often started out poor and became anywhere from above-average to great by November. The thing that keeps Carroll from being revered like Belichick is actually a person: Patriots’ offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia (whose son Steve, incidentally, married a girl named Maddy Cuono who half of us went to high school with). Dante Scarnecchia is maybe the greatest offensive line coach in the history of the game. I have no idea how his wisdom hasn’t been passed around more of the league. Part of it also is the unwillingness of the Pats to get players like Richard Sherman or Earl Thomas or even Marshawn Lynch, guys who (rightfully) put themselves before the team when they think the team is taking too much. Nobody is flicking off Bill Belichick while being carted off the field.
But anyway, if Pete Carroll could, he would play every game like the Vikings played the Falcons (incidentally the team where Dante’s son Steve is an assistant coach): Minnesota’s defense allowed nothing for maybe three quarters, so the offense only threw the ball ten times, most of them in the first quarter. Hey, Captain Kirk still had 16 FP, just four fewer than Russ, so it’s not fantasy poison to start a QB on a run-first—and sometimes run-only—offense, but Shelby might consider changing allegiance to Kyler Murray, who definitely doesn’t project to be part of a run-first offense, nor even be subject to the gamescript that allows it. Kyler’s Kardinals—is it just me or did white supremacy ruin alliteration for the letter K? Nevermind. Kyler Murray threw the ball 44 times in four quarters, then 10 more in OT. He had 217 yards in regulation and 91(!) in OT. He threw both of his TDs in the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter. While these aren’t exclusively positive numbers, they are much better than Baker Mayfield’s numbers in a similar situation, granted the defenses they were facing are surprisingly different. Though Patricia and Vrabel came up under Belichick, Patricia runs a 4-3 while Vrabel runs the more Belichickian 3-4. Patricia presumably didn’t turn the heat up on Kyler the way Vrabel turned it up on Baker. Also, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is better equipped to defeat a cautious coach like Patricia than Kitchens’ offense is to defeat an aggressive coach like Vrabel. Whatever. Who cares. The point is that Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield both played for Lincoln Reilly, and either of them would succeed more often running the plays Kliff Kingsbury calls than they would running the plays Freddie Kitchens (or I guess Todd Monken) calls. Freddie Kitchens is another coach likely to be fired in 2019. Why? Well, because his team is going to lose ugly, ugly games, and the Browns are going to offer Lincoln Reilly lots and lots of money to coach the team in 2020.
Sorry, Shelby, this got away from me. Start Kyler, or don’t. It doesn’t matter. But Kyler will throw the ball more often than either Wilson or Cousins, and volume rules in fantasy. Really, try to trade one of your QBs to Sean. The upside play is to try to trade Kyler, Cousins and Thielen to Sean for David Johnson, assuming Sean would go for it, then use the empty roster spots on WR fliers (a process you’ve already started with Corey Davis) until one of them hits.
My turn! Time to tell you that I wore my Lamar Jackson jersey and watched all of his snaps live Sunday morning. It was glorious. Of course, it was against the worst team in the league, and it was basically one of those noon EST college blowouts between Notre Dame and Chattanooga, but the way Lamar throws the ball is just… pretty. It’s a flick of the wrist and there it sails, off to dream land and down into the steady hands of whoever’s there at the time. Yards and TDs aplenty. Effervescence. Serenity. And it never ended, not until he was taken out at the beginning of the fourth quarter. If not for Lamar, I would’ve been really bummed out by the end of the Bucs game Sunday. I definitely would have lost the week without his 48 points, and I definitely wouldn’t have had enough serotonin to withstand two pick sixes and the creeping question: if the Bucs defense is good now, but the team is still bad, is does that mean Jameis is bad? Of course, his bounce-back in the rain against Carolina suggests he’s fine, just learning a new offense for the first time since 2015 while trying to forget all the garbage Koetter taught him. Here’s the thing about the Bucs. The 49ers are not very good, though they have a good front seven, which is enough against a bad offensive line and a middling team in a new offensive system. But the Panthers defense is pretty good, especially after adding McCoy and Burns and Boston this offseason. But maybe not replacing Thomas Davis hurts their run defense more than anticipated, since that’s not part of the game any of those three I mentioned do much to help? But I’m pretty sure the Bucs are good. We clearly sold out to hold McCaffrey to 50 yards, which is how we allowed basically 100 yards apiece to Moore, Samuel, and Olsen, and we made them turn the ball over on downs twice. Even with Cam Newton a mess, the Panthers only lost to the Rams by three, and the Bucs beat them (granted, in the rain) by six. By the commutative property, the Bucs just beat the Rams by three, which I’m pretty sure means they’re the Super Bowl favorite now.
Just like my team is the favorite to win our league despite finishing a distant third in this melee week. Sure, I got 48 from Lamar and 23 from CJ Mosley (now injured) to do it, and sure my best player after them was Michael Thomas with 18, and sure the whole thing started with Jimmy Graham scoring on a truly unbelievable box-out/rebound catch on a feather ball in garbage game, but I still think I’m the favorite for this reason: it’s been five years, and I deserve this, furthermore I need it. But whatever, I’ll play the game of pretending we all have a chance. Even if I go 1-12, I’ll always have this feeling of vindication for drafting Lamar Jackson as high as, especially considering the player I would’ve gotten instead would’ve been Jameis Winston, and I definitely would’ve lost, especially with my two heart picks (Evans and Keanu) combining for a solid 5 points.
Okay, so why am I worried? All the reasons. Lamar Jackson couldn’t have faced less adversity in Week 1. His mettle wasn’t tested like a lot of other guys. He’s realtively soft going into Week 2. Damien Williams isn’t technically a starter; he’s possibly just LeSean McCoy’s goal-line vulture and otherwise handcuff. Kerryon Johnson plays for a bottom-five team that won’t even use him to run the clock out while they’re up by 18 in the fourth quarter. Mike Evans apparently lost the number one job to Chris Godwin. Michael Thomas’s catch percentage is already down 8% from last season, all the way down to 76%. I am basically streaming TE unless Mark Andrews plays more than 40% of snaps more often. Josh Gordon just dropped to third on the Pats’ WR depth chart. Justin Tucker can’t hit field goals if Lamar is always throwing TDs. The Broncos’ defense. Myles Garrett doesn’t project to be playing with a lead nearly as often as it seemed a week ago. CJ Mosley is already missing a game. Keanu Neal isn’t even allowed by rule to kill anyone with a pencil! Devin Singletary is backup to the most unbreakable RB in the game. Royce Freeman is backup to one of the most breakable, but for some reason the Broncos insist on splitting the carries in Lindsay’s favor. Deebo Samuel is allegedly about to lose snaps to Dante Pettis, and I just can’t have two pieces of that offense the way Garappolo is lobbing that ball.
I actually worked myself up a little bit, enough that I might make some free agent moves or attempt some trades between now and game action tomorrow.
Evan’s 178 gave him good distance from the pack, but he wasn’t even close to Coleman in the cash game. Wentz was third in points among QBs and second among QBs on rosters, tied with Pat Mahomes—and Spencer, if you want to know how to win with a 40-point QB performance, you can start by having four other players top 20 points on the week like Bell, Keenan, Jeffery, and Engram did, all before 1:00 p.m. PDT (note, I’ve been mistakenly referring to East-coast time as EST when technically it’s been EDT and will be until daylight saving time ends in November). Well with 120 points already on the board, all Evan had to do was hope his players showed up, and he’d pretty much be guaranteed a spot in the top six. So read between the lines, and you know that the seven players in his lineup I haven’t mentioned combined for about 50 points. Math it up, and that’s seven points per player, including that fat donut for Watt, meaning Evan is due for regression. But look, Cameron was due for regression a lot of last season and still stomped all of us on his way to the ship. But Evan, let’s worry. Carson Wentz has too many options. He’s probably going to get overwhelmed and get sacked deciding which open diva to throw to. Bell is going to face stacked boxes with Darnold out until the Homecoming dance. Chubb plays for the Browns, and I think I’ve made my Browns stance clear. Allen is going to see way more defensive attention now that Henry and William are probably out. Jeffery is going to miss a couple games, probably the important ones when you need him the most. Engram is pretty unstoppable; I’m not worried about him. Lindsay is down to 15 touches max, inefficient ones at that. Jake Elliot is good for six points per week. You should keep him. Chuck Pagano will slowly but surely degrade the Bears, especially as the offense stalls repeatedly. JJ Watt, look, he’s never recording a defensive statistic again. But okay, enough of this shtick. Jamison Crowder and Larry Fitzgerald are lethal in the PPF format, but Evan has to bench Lindsay to make that happen. Can you do it, Evan? Can you bench Phillip Lindsay for anyone but Ronald Jones? Okay, real advice, your team is good, too good probably to make any significant roster moves, except maybe to get a better fourth RB than Ito Smith, but for what?
Finally, we have Coleman, the most obvious team to lead scoring by 30 points the first week of the season. We all saw it coming, the combined 65 from McCaffrey and Ingram, I mean. We definitely knew Coleman was flexing on us by benching studs like Hollywood and McLaurin for depth guys like Lockett, Robinson, and Moore. 55 points from two rookies was too obvious, too easy; had to go for the more equitable 45 stretched across three guys with experience, guys on teams that emphasize throwing the ball. (Okay, none of the teams emphasize throwing the ball; I’m getting punchy and sarcastic to the point of nausea as we grind to the end here.) Look, I’m going to say what Coleman doesn’t want to hear: Coleman, this is a fluke. Your team sucks. Deshaun Watson is going to average 12 points per game from here on out. Christian McCaffrey—well, shit he did actually suck against the Bucs, moving on—OJ Howard—no wait, also actually sucked already… Dude, no bit, I’m pretty sure your team actually sucks, and that 10-spot you got last week, that’s the only money you’re getting back this whole season. Corey Littleton had 14 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT, and he forced and recovered a fumble on Sunday. Not happening again, probably not even if you combine any two weeks this season. Calais Campbell legit sucks without Malik Jackson taking double teams. The Rams defense doesn’t get to play injured QBs most weeks, either, so count on less than 10 probably every game from now on.
I liked your tradeblock proposition, trying to get a solid RB for one of the rookies. Hopefully someone takes you up on it. McLaurin is going to get way too much usage to be wasted on your bench. I would trade for him, but that franchise is cursed and anyone who uses them in fantasy is cursed, too. Obviously Hollywood won’t score 30 points on 12 snaps most weeks, probably more like 15 points once every three weeks, but not actually on a schedule, more like 30 one week, zero the next, four the next, then 15, then 15 again when you sat him both of those weeks, then three when you actually start him, and so on. But you know this already. The real advice: trade OJ Howard to one of us hapless Bucs fans (preferably me, for very little in return, but I’ll give you Mark Andrews so you can have both Ravens named Mark) before you lose all the value of that third-round pick. And good job getting some bench RBs that will touch the ball, but maybe try to get someone you might have the desire to play or better yet be able to trade. This Golden Tate thing is ridiculous, but do you.
Okay, rapid fire Week 2 Matchups:
First of all, Evan and Coleman play each other this week, which is amazing for Evan and absolutely the worst thing that could happen to Coleman. But 1-1 either way isn’t terrible. Still I expect Evan to roll to victory and Coleman literally play the same exact lineup until a bye week or injury. Evan’s best player will be JJ Watt just annihilating Coleman lookalike Gardner Minshew II (of which there is no first!). Actually it’ll be Nick Chubb running all over the Jets sans Quinnen and Mosley. Coleman’s best player will be Deshaun Watson every week regardless of matchups.
In the “rematch” between Shelby and Oliver, I think one of them will win the cash this week for having the narrowest margin of victory, and I think it will be Shelby because her RBs are vastly superior to Oliver’s. Still, Oliver has the vastly superior WRs and TE. Shelby gets the edge because she has the better kicker and the better LB. Shelby’s best player will be Russell Wilson having to throw more against a fired up Steelers offense putting up big points at home. Oliver’s best player will be Drew Brees in a shootout with the Rams.
Fart69 will beat Corey because Chris Godwin will not be denied but also because the Patriots will win with defense and backup RBs against an inferior Miami team. Belichick loves to stick it extra hard to his former assistants. He will crush Flores like Drago crushed Rocky. Brian won’t crush Corey, as most of his players have tougher matchups than they did in Week 1, but this one won’t be quite as close as Hot Garbage vs. I Eat My Own Poop. Bran and Corey’s best players, respectively, will end up being C-God and Olsen, who have already played.
In the Battle of the Courtyards, either Sean or Tim will begin the year 0-2 with the fewest total points through two weeks. My guess is that Tim will win because Luke Kuechly already dropped a megaton to Cam Newton’s megaturd. Though Sean will exceed the 102 he posted last week, Tim will score closer to 140 as Rodgers has a surprisingly good day at home against the Vikings. I think Fournette can top Rodgers’ day, though, with three touchdowns against the Texans, and be Tim’s best player. Sean’s best player will be Brandin Cooks getting his first 100-yard game of the year and his first TD in the aforementioned Saints-Rams shootout.
Kennedy is going to be upset, not just emotionally but also in terms of being the favorite yet losing. Even though Chubb will be the main one to feast on the Jets, Baker and Odell will connect at least once after all this trash talk Gregg Wiliiams fed to the Browns’ fire. If the Jets have any hope, it’s that Gregg Williams knows Baker’s weaknesses after seeing him all last season. But that’s if the Jets have hope, and that’s not the prediction. There are a lot of good players to choose from here for Cam, but I’ll say it’s Darren Waller just because I offered Josh Gordon for Waller last night and all Cam said was, “That’s enticing.” Haven’t heard a peep since, and he’s starting Waller, so I assume we’re on the same page. As for Kennedy, I’m going with Juju, and even though Juju is hurt, he will have a big day, and even though he’ll have a big day, you’ll still lose by a considerable amount.
And finally, I will get absolutely rocked by Spencer’s boys this week. Mahomes knows he’s the fantasy GOAT, and he knows he messed up being QB1 when he airmailed the no-look to Kelce. And technically, his opponent the Raiders are tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC West, so it’s going to be a career day for Mahomes against a defense that way overperformed and will have way too much confidence at home against the best offense in the league. So yeah, I’m picking Mahomes to lead Spencer’s team in points, but I also see Conner and Kittle doing big things. As for my guys, Lamar is going to do work against the Cardinals, no doubt. I’m more concerned that my RBs won’t show up and that the Rams will try to neutralize Michael Thomas. Plus, I still haven’t decided who to start among Gordon, Singletary, Hardman, and Nurkhead. Any advice would be appreciated.
Okay, I missed some stuff, forgot to give everyone all their orange slices, but I’ll get there one day. For now, good luck this week, especially if you winning this week eventually helps me make the playoffs.
