Fun facts:
There are two legitimate fantasy options named Jared, and they were drafted back-to-back in the sixth round.
Only Oliver and Brian left the draft without full lineups. Each of them forewent Ks and DSTs.
Most QBs: Shelby (3)
Fewest QBs: Coleman, Evan, Doak, Sean, Brian, Cameron (1)
Most RBs: Brian (9)
Fewest RBs: Coleman (3, including Jordan Scarlett)
Most WRs: Spencer, Coleman (7)
Fewest WRs: Shelby, Cameron (4)
Most TEs: Cameron (3)
Fewest TEs: Spencer, Coleman, Doak, Kennedy, Sean, Tim, Brian (1)
Most players from one team: Shelby (4 Cowboys), Tim (4 Packers)
Nobody doubled-up on DL, LB, DB, DST.
The Aw Shit Moments (that I remember)
Round 3:
Coleman takes OJ Howard right before Evan.
Oliver takes Miles Sanders three picks ahead of me.
Round 5:
Tim takes Luke Kuechly after Sean spends his 5th on Cam Newton.
What follows is maybe the dumbest shit I’ve ever done with the intention to show other people.
(You will recognize some of these from The Fantasy Footballers Podcast. I promise it’s only like 10 of them.)
Spe
EK – James Conner, Cancer Terminator
LK – Pat Cajones
1 – Saquon SAY IT
2 – Big Kittle Lies
3 – Kupp Runneth Over
4 – Duke “The Duke” Johnson
5 – AJ “10 Games” Green
6 – Wobbly Robbly Anderson
7 – Will Fuller V for Very Fragile
8 – Peyton the Barber of Upside
9 – James Washed-ington
10 – [no comment]
11 – John Brown Hindparts
12 – Tremaine (just Tremaine)
13 – Honey Badger
14 – Chargers D w/o Derwin
15 – Josh Stallyn *air guitar*
16 – Matt “Shoulder Made of Nickels” Bryant
UD – Jones Chandler, Quarterback Handler
UD – You Can Call Me Albert Wilson (Because That’s All I Am)
Team Stacks: 3 Bills, 2 Steelers, 2 Texans
First Take: Spencer’s fear was that he would end up with crap receivers, so he faced his fear and drafted crap receivers.
Second Glance: stud QB, two stud RBs, stud TE, potential stud WR on layaway, and Duke and Kupp would start for most of our teams.
Cold, Robot Stare: Too much draft capital spent picking essentially one WR over and over again between Rounds 6 and 11. Realistically, AJ Green is out four weeks to start the year. Knowing you’ve got four weeks to get the most out of a bunch of boom-bust WRs, you pretty much have to pick one and ride him the whole time, expecting that at least one of the weeks will be a boom. If you chase points from last week, you’re almost always going to be disappointed. Meanwhile, Spe spent an aggregate 14th-round pick on the back half of his lineup. Tremaine, Mathieu, the Chargers, Bryant, and Chandler have each had moments as a fantasy asset, but they’re buried in the bargain bin for a reason.
Coleman
EK – Deshaun “Greasy Legs” Watson
LK – Flyler Lockett
1 – Christian McCafé
2 – Mark Boringram
3 – OJ “DaJuice” Howard
4 – Allen “AR…12?” Robinson
5 – Go DJ, That’s My DJ Moore
6 – Frabjous Day Callooh Calais
7 – Ryan “The Reach” Kerrigan
8 – Stephen Goatkowski
9 – John Johnson Johnior
10 – Wade Phillips
11 – Golden the Fertile
12 – Terry McHamstrings
13 – [Christian McCaffrey’s handcuff]
14 – [Ravens’ rookie receiver with wheels]
15 – [Ravens’ rookie receiver from Notre Dame]
16 – Cory Littleton, Juxtapositionton
Team Stacks: 3 Panthers, 3 Ravens, 3 Rams, 2 Skins
First Take: It’s not good, and I’m not just saying to keep the Commissioner’s Curse off Coleman this season.
Second Glance: The starting lineup can compete, for sure, a great foundation with Watson, CMC, Lockett, and OJ. Ingram is dece. A-Rob has the traits of a stud WR, as does DJ. Calais and Kerrigan and Johnson and the Gost are quality fantasy players.
Cold Stare: You have three RBs, and the third is worthless unless the first gets seriously injured. So you have two RBs. And that’s really a microcosm of the state of affairs here. There is not one proven depth piece here except for Golden Tate, who won’t play until October. You’re all-in on the Rams defense. I DON’T UNDERSTAND YOU! One year removed from a single RB injury tanking your season, you entirely forewent RB depth and instead hoarded all the rookie receivers in a 50-mile radius of your house. Is this an elaborate tank? Can’t you at least have the decency to tank honestly like Miami?
(Hey, Coleman, do you think the reverse jinx is working?)
Evan
EK – Full-Limp Lindsay
LK – Thick Chubb
1 – Le’Veon Le’Veoff Le’Veon Again
2 – Spleenan Allen
3 – Evan “hey, I’m also Evan” Engram
4 – Alshon “Expected Points” Jeffery
5 – Wentzwaggin’ His Dick Around
6 – 1.21 JJ Watts
7 – Curtis Samuel, Sleeper Du Jour
8 – Larry Fitz is 36!
9 – Bears D w/o Fangio (now made with Pagano!)
10 – Lavonte David, Living Legend
11 – RoJo-BoBoJo-FaNaNaNaFoFoJo-MeMyMoMojo… RoJo!
12 – A-Doh-Rayyy
13 – N’Talent Harry
14 – Jamison Crowder is Seven Feet Tall
15 – Ito: Impact Poquito
16 – Jake Elliot, Predecessor to Carli Lloyd
Team Stacks: 3 Eagles, 2 Jets, 2 Bucs
First Take: I am a big fan of the Wentz-Jeffery stack. I also fear the Le’Veon-Chubb combo like no other.
Second Glance: I don’t see Lindsay popping like he did last year, but if he does, Evan is making the playoffs. As it stands, he is getting serious volume from three RBs, one WR, and his TE. His other two offensive starters play together on probably the best offense in the league.
Cold Stare: If I try really hard to make a case against Evan, I can call a spade a spade and say the Bears defense is about to suck, at least for fantasy but probably for real. That, and Adoree’ Jackson isn’t what he seems. As a rookie, he had 59 combined kick and punt returns that added 43 points to his season total, to go with a relatively high 17 PBUs and a relatively astronomical three forced fumbles, plus he had five carries for 55 yards. Last year, he had 16 punt returns, zero kick returns, a league-average 10 PBUs (including his first two career picks), zero fumbles forced, and zero snaps on offense. He had about 70 tackles each season, which isn’t enough to come close to competing with the top DBs. The Titans’ depth chart lists Adam Humphries as the punt returner, meaning Jackson has to score all of his fantasy points on defense, which is nearly impossible for corners to do when slotted in the same spot as safeties. It’s hopeless, just like my case against Evan’s team if all I’m basing it off of is a guy he drafted in the 12th round who he could swap out tomorrow and never think about again.
Doak “Our Initial Picks Are Just, Like, Suggestions, Man”
EK – Kerryon My Wayward Son
LK – Damien “Committee Option A” Williams
1 – M1k3 Evans, Pillar of the Community
2 – @Cantguardmike
3 – Devin Singletary, Last Viable Rookie
4 – Flash Gordon ALL JOKES ASIDE PLEASE THE MAN IS IN PAIN
5 – Lamar “Vick Died So That I May Live” Jackson
6 – Rolls Royce Freeman
(aside: A Rolls Royce broke the original 2015 Marty McFly’s hand, rendering him unable to play guitar, much like a healthy Royce Freeman will break Phillip Lindsay’s hold on the starting job. I get how this presents as a reach, but Denver’s defense is super good, and their QB is Joe Flacco. Why wouldn’t they run the ball 30+ times a game? And if Lindsay weighs 195 to Royce’s 230, why wouldn’t they default to Royce in short-distance/goal-line work and when it’s time to run out the clock? Is it still a reach, considering he was the 40th RB off the board?)
7 – Dante Pettis, Never Not on the Trade Block
8 – Keanu Killed Boban with a Book
9 – Trustin’ Tucker
10 – Is Myles One Syllable or Two?
11 – Broncos D (now made with Fangio!)
12 – Damien Harris, Cheapest Patriot
13 – Deebo “You Need the Deebs Because They Have… the Deeb Juice” Samuel
14 – Frank Gore, T-4000
15 – Dallas Goedert, Footballer For Sure
16 – CJ Mosley, “The Steak of the Draft”
UD – Derwin “Deep Stash” James
UD – Dare (just Dare)
UD – One Graham is Always Too Much Yet Never Enough
Team Stacks: 2 Ravens, 2 Niners, 2 Bills
First take: No matter what I do, I can’t shake my nature. My team has potential but little stability. My team is a marshmallow. Some people will love it. Some people will question why it exists at all. But no matter what, when the heat is on, it’s gonna end up all over the place.
Second Glance: My WRs are as good as anyone’s. And I’ve got a strong back half of the lineup with Tucker, Denver, Myles, Mosley, and Keanuuu. Plus, I have some bench players capable of exceeding their draft pick.
Cold Stare: I don’t believe in any of my RBs, and because I don’t, I can’t get fair trade value for them because I’m inclined to undersell. So I have to roll out a lineup every week in which two of the spots are just the dudes with the most projected points. But as I looked through all of your rosters, I was hard-pressed to find any RBs I did believe in. I think I’m just on the side of history that insists the position doesn’t matter. Or I’m protecting myself from realizing that I avoid early RBs and almost never have that stud guy like a Saquon or Kamara at the position. Hmmm. The wheels already turning for next year, but I’m not tilting this year. Don’t offer me trades, especially not for Williams, unless you’re ready to overpay.
Shelby
EK – The Latavius RB3
LK – Derrick “Tractorcito (allegedly)” Henry
1 – Todd “Old Bod” Gurley
2 – More Than a Thielen
3 – Amari Pooper
4 – Grunter Henry
5 – Doodoo Westbrook
(okay, enough)
6 – Russell Hustle Man-Muscle Wilson
7 – David “Never Too Soon for a TE2” Njoku
8 – Kalen Blah
9 – Leighton Vander Esch
10 – Kyler Murrennial
11 – DK Creatine
12 – Demarcus Low Rent (but actually expensive af)
13 – Antoine “Cut Before Week 1” Bethea
14 – Rod Marinelli
15 – Kirk Cousins 2: Outta Luck
16 – Oh Dem Gould-en Slippers
UD – Boy Named Suh
Team Stacks: 4 Cowboys, 2 Seahawks, 2 Vikings
First Take: All of Shelby’s defenders are either Cowboys or facing the Cowboys Week 1. She is also on half-tilt, drafting three QBs just a week after Luck quit on her. (Note: I like Andrew Luck and would also quit my job if my job made me pee blood.)
Second Glance: Something I like about this team is that it’s clear who the starters are. My craw’s always a little caught on the value of decision-making in fantasy. Like, if every decision I make has the potential to feel like the decision that won or lost the week or even season, then isn’t there value in consolidating these decisions into an overarching strategy rather than trying to go player-by-player.
Cold Stare: I' can't get behind three QBs, even if the plan is to trade them, even if the plan is to start Russ, stash Murray, and hold Cousins just in case anything goes wrong with the other two. It just seems like too much secuirty and not enough action. Also, congrats for keeping your streak of starting a Bucs DL in Week 1 like four years in a row.
Oliver
EK – Lucky Thumper Tevin
LK – Bobbywooooods
1 – Did it All for the Nuk-ie
2 – Zeus
3 – I Would Draft 500 Miles, and I Would Draft 500 More
(but Oliver sniped him! Pewp!)
4 – James “Safe and Sorry” White
5 – Aaron Donald Eats First, Everyone Else Eats Second
6 – (Kanye voice) No One, Man, Should Draft Jordan Howard
7 – Starvin’ Marvin’s Dwindlin’ Targets
8 – Blake “Mostly Only Tackles” Martinez
9 – MVS stands for Market Value Speculation
10 – Just a Cool Brees, Man
11 – “What’s in His Veins? Just Ice” Hill
12 – Moncrief Al Donte
(does that scan?)
13 – Jimmy Gigolo Squeezin’ Tig Ol’s
(doesn’t scan, but it stays anyway)
14 – [Todd Gurley’s handcuff]
15 – [one of the Ravens’ three starting TEs]
16 – Haha (You Think) Clinton-Dix (is Worth a Pick)
Team Stacks: 3 Rams, 2 Eagles, 2 Packers, 2 Niners
First take: The corny name bit has me embittered, but I’m pushing through because I’m a completist.
Second Glance: Hey, except for the Blake Martinez reach, Oliver had a pretty good draft!
Cold Stare: These are good individual picks, but it’s still poor roster construction. Basically, you can’t have it all unless you actually have it all, and by that I mean you need to fill your starting lineup, especially when the first week is a melee. Your backup QBs and TEs and low-upside backup RBs are good if you have like one of the three, maybe two if you hit on all your picks—which, by the way, you hit on all your picks, so get your shit together and take it to the shit store (i.e., Coleman’s team), and sell it. To be blunt, those last four picks, those are your shit. Believe it or not, Jordan Howard is also your shit. IS THIS A FUCKING GAME TO YOU, MAN?
Kennedy
EK – Good Juju
LK – Chris Carson (now with hands that move!)
1 – Davante Adams, Conjectural Stud
2 – Josh “Hidden from Hard Knocks” Jacobs
3 – David Mopportunity
5 – Ty “But Why” Boyd
5 – Room-Temp. Matty Light
6 – Darius Leonard, Empirical Stud
7 – Tarik in Name, Tyreek in Game
8 – 🎶Vance McDonald Has Stiff Arms, Down Chris Conte Goes 🎶
9 – Courtland Somethin’-Somethin’
10 – Corey Nothin’-Nothin’
11 – Rapey Roethlisberger
(never forget)
12 – Budda Like BUTTAH
13 – Vikings D w/o depth
14 – Dreamy Ka’imi
15 – AD stands for Avalanche of Debt
16 – Trey Flowers Doesn’t Inspire a Nickname
UD – Ngak-this-oue
Team Stacks: 3 Steelers, 2 Bears
First Take: Best WR pair on paper + solid depth WRs + high-volume RBs + #1 LB = early-season favorite.
Second Glance: Yeah, it’s real strong. No evidence Kennedy knows what he’s doing at DL or DB, but otherwise strong.
Cold Stare: A team like this has to be meticulously plotted over the course of a season. The RBs appear especially finicky. All of them have good season outlooks, but you have to play the matchups, and I don’t mean like, oh hey Josh Jacobs is playing a defense that has allowed the 5th most points, I mean like Tarik Cohen against zone defenses. And if you’ve got Juju and Adams, then what do you do when either Sutton or Davis pops, especially if Jacobs, Montgomery, and Cohen don’t? (Remember, for the course of this year, I’m assuming the Bears will be not just worse than last year but actually bad.) Do you pivot to a 3-WR lineup? Or do you decide ahead of time a threshold for how good a WR has to be to overtake your third RB at the flex spot? I assume the WRs were drafted as kind of luxury assets, which can a be dangerous plan. For all you know, the rookie RBs will have growing pains, and the somewhat experienced WRs will be able to make an impact early. It’s too early to go on autopilot. Don’t go on autopilot.
Sean
EK – Ertz the Untradeable
LK – Different Breida Human Being
1 – David Johnson, All-American
2 – Devonta’s Vultured Touchdowns
3 – Brandin Cooks DBs for Dinner
4 – Mike Won’tiams
5 – Newton’s First Law: Inertia
6 – Bobby Wagner is Still Underpaid
7 – LeWashed McSpoiler
8 – Jamal “I Would Die on the Field” Adams
9 – Yammerin’ Stammerin’ Cameron Jordan
10 – Buttkicker: His Cyber-Kicks Have the Power of Butts
11 – The Reverend Justin Jackson
12/13/14/16 – A Swarm of Wide Receiver Post-Hype Sleepers
15 – The Totally Not Overhyped Browns D
Team Stacks: 2 Niners, 2 Chargers, 2 Saints, 2 Chiefs
First take: I’m pretty jealous of his IDP situation, but otherwise Sean is back in the pack with most of us.
Second Glance: Nothing is guaranteed with any of these guys. Only Johnson and Freeman even appear to be focal points of the offense.
Cold Stare: With Cam Newton coming off two shoulder surgeries, the Rams offense getting further deciphered every week, the historical hex on WRs named Mike Williams, and all signs pointing to Ertz’s target-volume plummeting, boy I hate Sean’s offense. His saving grace will be if Justin Jackson outplays Ekeler, the sooner the better. Clearly I have no faith in any of the hoard of bench receivers he so desperately grasped for at draft’s end. But Matt Breida is a sneaky potential league-winner.
Corey
EK – Julian Ironman
LK – Austin Flexeler
1 – Joe “The Whole Offense” Mixon
2 – Mister Big Chest
3 – My Fitness Consigliere Michel
4 – T.Y. “I Dedicate This Season to My Best Friend” Hilton
5 – Bless’m!
6 – Jared Glorp
7 – “Better Run Like a” Kenyan Drake
8 – Greg the Leg
9 – Greg the Elder
10 – Danielle “Ain’t a Bitch Name” Hunter
11 – An Actual Vampire
12 – Ravens D plus Earl Thomas
13 – Beefy Chubb
14 – Eric Ebron (Vernon Davis 2.0)
15 – Jordan Poyer Dream Destroyer
16 – Mohamed “is the Most Commonly Used Name on Earth Read a Fucking Book for Once” Sanu
Team Stacks: 3 Pats, 2 Rams, 2 Colts
First Take: As I predicted, this is a potentially-washed-receiver wasteland. But since they can’t all be washed at once, it’s probably okay. And though no risk was taken, in its place we have unflinching stability, not to mention both QBs from last year’s Super Bowl.
Second Glance: Antonio Brown getting cut would actually improve his fantasy stock.
Cold Stare: I look at Goff, and I look at Brady, and I look back at Goff, and I look back at Brady, and I think of a football cliché: if you have two starting QBs, you have no starting QBs. Shelby can tell you the struggle of having two legitimate options at that position. It’s important to know who the starter is and why OR to have a very clear plan of how you’re using both of them. If you think you’re going to ride the hot hand, you’re going to get burned. I also don’t love the idea of starting two DLs, but I’ll reserve judgment for the week neither records a sack (which may never come).
Tim
EK – Khalil Mack, Labor Day Legend
LK – 2nd-Best-Aaron-on-His-Own-Team Jones
1 – [some trash asshole]
2 – Little Len Fournette, Baby You’re Not That Fast
3 – Aaron Rodgers’ Relaxing Stash
4 – Ridley’s Receive It Or Not (Hopefully Not)
5 – Sean’s Former Boyfriend Luke Kuechly
6 – Jared Cook, Mediocre No More!
7 – Darnell Anderson
8 – Sammy Watkins’ Foil Hat
9 – “Who the hell is Alexander Mattison?”
10 – Worst-Possible-Landon-Spot-(I mean the ‘Skins) Collins
11 – Geron But Not Forgotten
12 – Mister Biscuit
13 – Stillers D
14 – [a third Chiefs WR]
15 – Makes-None Crosby
16 – Devin S. Scrumptious (Any Questions?)
UD – Frank Gore, T-4000
UD – Nyheim of Jeannie
Team Stacks: 4 Packers, 3 Chiefs, 2 Bears
First Take: I like the idea behind buying big into the Packers and Chiefs offenses. I also like buying rookie RBs, especially at relatively low cost.
Second Glance: I don’t like assholes, unless the asshole is me.
Cold Stare: Tim spent the proper amount on each position. Lots of RB/WR action early, best QB available in the late 3rd round, top-5 IDP in Round 5, solid TE Round 6… If the plan is to start all those Chiefs and Packers, I’m into it. You can always pivot after two weeks if it isn’t working. But if it works, you’ve got a running start. At some point, you’ve gotta say enough is enough with hoarding RBs, though.
Fart69
EK – The Secret World of Marlon Mack
(where, instead of him becoming liquid, his QB becomes replacement-level)
LK – Chris “I Am a” Godwin
1 – I Am CornJulio I Need TP for My Bunghole
2 – u/DalvinCookHypeTrain
3 – No Money No Melvin
4 – Kenny G’s Smooth Routes
5 – Rashaad “Is Worth One” Penny
6 – Christian Kirk, Shameless Flirt
7 – [another worthless asshole]
8 – For We Believe That Jameis Died and Rose Again
9 – [James Conner’s handcuff]
10 – Michael Gallup and, Like, Horses Gallup and He’s a Cowboy That’s All We’ll Ever Know About Him
11 – Delanie Walker, Passive Cockblocker
12 – Dion “No Such Thing as Too Many Titans” Lewis
13 – Nyheim of Jeannie (since cut)
(I am barreling toward the finish line)
14 – Devin N.B. White
(the N.B. stands for “not Bush,” shorthand we’ll get a lot of use out of this season but hopefully not forever)
15 – Giovani “The Almost Final Boss in the Original Pokémon” Bernard
16 – Tyrell Also-won’tiams
UD – Carlos Can’t Run and He Can’t Hyde
UD – Jadeveon “John Schneider is a Genius” Clowney
Team Stacks: 3 Bucs, 2 Colts, 2 Titans
First Take: It’s real ugly, but it always is, and Brian always figures it out.
Second Glance: Brian made a bunch of FA moves I’m not tracking here. He’s figuring it out.
Cold Stare: Brian didn’t put himself in this position. When you can’t draft your team from the comfort of a dead stare into your laptop screen for two hours, you can’t expect to come out with exactly what you wanted, much less what you needed. But Kareem Hunt was a shitty pick, and I don’t even think that’s an opinion. Dude isn’t going to suit up for nine weeks. Christian Kirk was a really good pick right after him, though, and picks like Gallup and Lewis will come around to win games in a few weeks. Don’t count Brian out. Brian is whatever the name is for the type of boxer Rocky was, the one that just takes punishment until he gets mad and starts unconsciously pummeling you senseless. Have I mentioned the time Brian won a campus-wide fantasy football challenge at Florida State?
Cameron
EK – Super Kamario
LK – Baked Brown Turd
1 – Ezekiel Idiot
2 – Odell Bless’m
3 – Stefon Dig Routes, Only Dig Routes
4 – Nice Guice Finish Last
5 – Darwin’s Descent of Depth Chart
6 – Tony Pollard, Tony Clifton, and Other Known Stand-Ins
7 – Emmanuel Sanders is Unbreakable
8 – Sterling Shepard is Only Breakable
9 – MAGA stands for Maybe Aggravated Groin Again
10 – Roquan Makes RBs Say Ruh Roh
11 – Darren “Whatever I Can Get My Hands On” Waller
12 – Jags D w/o Malik Jackson and Telvin Smith
13 – Wil with One L Lutz
14 – Harrison “Kennedy, you picked Budda over me?” Smith
15 – TJ “Wish You Woulda Dropped to Me” Hockenson
16 – Rob “2020 Keeper” Gronkowski
Team Stacks: 2 Cowboys, 2 Browns, 2 Saints
First Take: This is a chalk draft with plenty of good players, but besides Odell and Baker and the young TEs, haven’t they all already hit their ceilings? Leaves me feeling like the Cameron should have taken more chances. Lord knows I took chances not only in the draft but in this note format, which by the way, is over and done now but will probably be done again because it was more fun than not.
Second Glance: Fuck Ezekiel Elliot
Cold Stare: At first I thought we handed Cameron the championship again, but I don’t believe in the Browns. I think we all have to collectively not believe in the Browns if we want anyone else to win the league this year. Because with Antonio Brown out in Oakland, Darren Waller is about to have 170 receiving yards per week. Eh, I suppose we can rely on the Redskins’ curse tanking Guice’s value, but can that really happen every year? He’s probably too good. Hmm… what else can we fade? Oh, Sanders and Shepard are for sure not good enough to win fantasy games, especially when Cameron inevitably plays them the wrong weeks. Please, God?
Steaks of the Draft, brought to you by Drunken Oliver
12 – Zeke drops about nine spots to our reigning champ, probably definitely the only fantasy team this season with Zeke and Kamara
19 – Travis Kelce drops 5-10 spots, and Oliver has maybe the key player in a point-per-first-down (PPF) format.
28 – Josh Jacobs is on a shitty team, but here’s a stat: of the 25 RBs drafted in the first round since 2007 (which I’m considering the modern era of offense, and you could even argue that it’s more recent), of those 25 RBs, 15 were full-time starters, and of those 15 starters, all of them averaged at least 15 touches for at least 60 yards per game. Assuming one first down, that’s a relative floor of seven points per game. And 14 of those 15 scored at least 6 TDs (Melvin Gordon scored 0), boosting that relative floor to 10 points per game, making Josh Jacobs’ worst possible outcome RB28. And where did Kennedy draft him? RB27. (I will hedge by saying that basing this take on the post-2007 offensive explosion is misguided since Jon Gruden thinks its 1999.)
40 – TY Hilton lost his QB and his best friend to red-pee retirement, and the popular opinion is to just crush the Colts’ expectations, but this: do we really think the difference between Carson Wentz and Big Dick Nick is so much better than Luck and Brissett? Hilton is the go-to receiver for one of the ten best-coached teams in the league, and we’re drafting him behind Brandin Cooks (basically the same player but one of three go-to guys), Stefon Diggs (averages 10 ypc, which is like 2.5 below league-average and like 6 below TY), and Calvin Ridley (also third banana on his team). 22nd WR off the board. And if Luck comes back next year, Corey has TY Hilton as a keeper. Either way, he has a top-20 WR as a keeper.
(If you’re wondering why I don’t make a similar case for Alshon, who was drafted later, it’s because the two have been in the league the same amount of time yet Hilton has played 16 more regular season games, and if you’re wondering why Allen Robinson isn’t up for discussion either, it’s because I think the Bears are one of the worst-coached teams in the league now that Fangio left and Pagano came in. I think if anyone is giving the Bears the baseline of being even 80% as good as they were at the end of last season, they’re not paying attention. AJ Green’s coaches also suck. I’m tempted to give Dede Westbrook a nod as a steal, but I don’t have confidence in his coaches. I’m not against them; I’m just not sure how much of them sucking was on Bortles. I’m willing to believe most of it was, but I also think their roster is too top-heavy to last a full season, none of which is really the fault of the coaches as much as it is the GM.)
69 (nice) – Tarik Cohen gets faded because of assumptions, most of them circling the notion that he won’t get enough consistent work to be a fantasy factor. Like, “he’ll have good games, but you have to start him every week to get them, and there won’t be enough of them for it to be worth it.” Add in the facts: this offseason, the Bears added two true RBs, a gadget guy, and a change-of-pace back. You might be thinking, wow, that seems like a lot of competition for snaps at RB. But Matt Nagy has interesting, non-coach-speak insight on Tarik Cohen. Last year, he said something to the effect of: Tarik Cohen can be used in the Bears offense the way that Tyreek Hill is used in KC. Hill sees a few snaps at RB throughout the year, and he had 22 carries (though mostly jet sweeps and screens scored as runs) in 2018, but obviously he’s primarily a receiver and returner. Meanwhile Cohen had 99 carries and 91 targets and 33 punt returns. By Nagy’s admission, Cohen was “moved around a lot… probably gave him a little bit too much. And when you mentally drain them, it pulls them back physically.” My prediction: Cohen becomes a receiver and returner in the Tyreek Hill mold, and he’s a firm flex option, potentially even a starting WR if Sleeper gives him the designation. I don’t know that his numbers can challenge top RBs the way Hill’s do, but he can start for Kennedy’s team if one of his three locked in RBs goes down. Note: Tarik becomes less valuable the more they play him at RB.
70 – JJ Watt deserves to be drafted right after Aaron Donald. He was drafted 16 picks after. Maybe you try to argue Donald was a reach at 54 overall. With all the starting RBs and focal-point receivers gone by that point, I just think it was time to start swinging for top guys at any other position. We weren’t all sleeping. I support most of the picks between Donald and Watt. But if you took a backup RB, you keep an eye on where Watt finishes in total points compared to the guy you can’t even put in your lineup Week 1. Yes, this is a shameless plug for my Draft for Week 1 strategy, which I neglected big time (we’ll get to that later).
76 – Royce Freeman is a starting RB in my book. I won’t expound because obviously I didn’t exactly put my money on it.
86 – Jameis Winston got drafted about 50 spots too low. About three weeks ago, I was going to draft him 28th overall and feel great about it. But then something really fucking weird happened. I started believing a lot in the Bucs defense, so much so that I just don’t think Jameis is going to throw as much, maybe not even 30 attempts per game, for us to win. It’s an unfounded take, but I can’t shake it. I’ll feel extra dumb about it when San Fran torches us Week 1, but I think as the season goes on, the defense will get a little bit better each week and by the time our insane stretch of road games ends, we might even be good, at least top half of the league. But Doak, you drafted Mike Evans fucking eighth. Isn’t it possible you just choked again when it came time to draft a QB, like when you took Lamar over Mahomes last season? Look, motherfucker, you don’t know me. You don’t know whether I believe Mike Evans will see 40% of this team’s targets or whether maybe I fumbled the draft a bit when I traded up into the first round instead of sitting back waiting for Kelce and Thielen to fall to my 17-18 picks. You. Don’t. Know.
89 – Jamal Adams is to DB what Travis Kelce is to TE. We’re not ready to start taking these IDPs that early, just because we can’t really rely on their production because of the way we perceive the game, and I think Jamal Adams actually has a chance to be exemplary of why that’s the smart opinion to have. Yeah, that was a convoluted way of saying I’m back-tracking. Jamal Adams was that Travis Kelce parallel while Adams played in Todd Bowles’ defense, much like if you remove Reid from KC or Kelce from KC, you can’t just take Kelce in the top 20 unless he goes somewhere he fits. The Jets new DC is Gregg Williams, who if you don’t already hate him because his name is Gregg, hate him because he once paid his players to injure opposing players, or hate him because Hue Jackson hired him in Cleveland, or hate him because his defenses have routinely been trash, especially for fantasy purposes, because he doesn’t scheme properly to his best players. He just runs the shit that worked in ’05 until the league finally tells him to fuck off. Plus, he’s a dick. I hate Gregg Williams. And Gregg Williams is going to ruin Jamal Adams. BUT, a good safety on a bad defense can do what Landon Collins has been doing, which is force turnovers and rack up tackles, so it’s not like Adams will be bad. But what I want you to consider is this: if Jamal Adams played for any of about 20 other teams, where he was going to be an emphatic piece of a dynamic defense, he’d be worth picking in our top 50 (74 if you count keepers).
90 – Courtland Sutton is going to lead the Broncos in receiving yards and TDs, to the tune of something like 1,200 and 10.
(Sorry, Spe, I know you got Barber late, but I just can’t stake my reputation on him being an impact on our fantasy season. Our line still isn’t good, and our backfield work is going to be divvied up too much to get him a constant flow of yards or TDs. He’s a good player, though, in terms of real football value.)
98 – John Johnson is in that type of situation I said Jamal Adams needed, where he’ll be schemed into playmaking position like he was last year when he was a top-5 (maybe top-3?) DB, in the same defense only with a worse safety next to him—this should improve his fantasy value the way Devonta Freeman’s value improves with the subtraction of Tevin Coleman.
101 – Leighton Vander Esch is as much of a threat to lead LBs in points as any of the three guys taken between 58 and 66, making him a scorching hot deal where Shelby got him.
103 – Corey Davis has made plays that I remember, notably a TD catch in overtime to beat the Eagles last year (he also had 160 yards in that game). He was supposed to break out in a big way last year, but Mariota had that elbow thing like all year, and Blaine Gabbert started three games. Still Davis had twice as many targets as the next WR, but his 7 targets per game were basement-level for a team’s #1. So what? Well, what is that he had 940 yards and 4 TDs, meaning if he’s on an upward trajectory—which it appears that he is—Corey Davis will have a relative floor around eight points to go with at least that 22-point ceiling we saw vs. Philly.
115 – Drew Brees did what, exactly, to deserve our scorn? He turned 40? Which Brady did when? Two years ago? Okay.
116 – Kyler Murray in the 10th is just a sweet potential keeper if he hits. If I’m correct in my assumption, Shelby has no intention of playing this guy unless he has a sweet matchup. She is in exclusively to steal something from the fantasy gods in exchange for them taking Andrew Luck too soon. It’s poetic justice, and I vehemently approve.
123 – Ronald Jones (EVERYBODY CALM DOWN!) is the fastest RB in an offense that emphasizes big plays. He’s not David Johnson, but what David Johnson did so well in his rookie season in Arians’ system was run fast in open space. Jones can do that. If the line can block, more importantly if everyone can block, Jones is going to break big gains often. Now, can you feel comfortable starting a guy based on that take? No, but what if he had gotten 15 touches each of the past six weeks? Might you consider him then, during byes, or if something happened to your precious Phillip Lindsay? You might.
124 – Myles Garrett isn’t JJ Watt, but this isn’t the 6th round, either. Remember this guy was the 1st pick in the NFL Draft two years ago, and everyone supported it, and everyone continues to support it, and his defense just got better players and coaches. FEAST!
126 – Justice Hill is maybe the fastest RB, and he looked shifty in preseason. His value really depends on usage. He’s quality in the 11th round because he might just steal the starting job late this year and be an easy keeper next year.
128 – Justin Jackson ran better than Austin Ekeler last year. Ekeler played really well in his role as receiving back and occasional spell for Gordon, but Jackson was the better feature back. Of course, that was last year and the Chargers line was better and the Chargers probably missed their window and won’t be all the good this year. But if they stay good, and if Melvin Gordon stays away, Jackson could start this year, and he could start next year, making him a great stash.
129 – Tom Brady is basically free at this pick, and he’s probably a top-12 QB who you can play whenever you want without having to worry about matchups, so yeah, this is value. This is how you get value, especially when you’re other QB is Jared Goff.
130 – Geronimo Allison isn’t sexy or even much to think about on his own, but stacking him with Rodgers in the right matchups gives Tim tremendous upside. What are the right matchups? When Davante Adams is going against a stud CB or the game projects to be a shootout. Week 1 against Chicago figures to be that type of game.
134 – Dion Lewis might be starting for the Titans as soon as halfway through the first game.
139 – Donte Moncrief is the #2 receiver for the Steelers, an offense that tends toward the top of the league in pass attempts and passing yards and TDs and basically all the stuff that makes fantasy points possible. Donte Moncrief is a steak.
141 – The Broncos defense is run by a guy named Vic Fangio, who you may remember from the 49ers ten years ago (when they were consistently battling Seattle for best defense) but who you definitely remember calling the defense for the Bears last season when they were the best defense in the league and it wasn’t close. But Doak, he had Khalil Mack! Uh huh, and now he has Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Fun fact about Fangio: when the league’s best offensive coaches were asked which DC was hardest to prepare against, they all answered Fangio.
149 – Bradley Chubb was basically the Myles Garrett of last year’s draft, he had 12 sacks as a rookie, and he’s got the top defensive mind scheming to get him more.
156 – Wil Lutz is a top-6 kicker, and they’re all the same, so why not wait for one to fall to you?
157 – Harrison Smith gets the John Johnson analysis with consistency in coaching and his fellow starting safety gone for a lesser replacement, plus Cameron gets him like 60 picks later.
160 – Eric Ebron’s only problem is that the Colts have too many weapons for him to be predictable. But when he’s on, he’s on.
166 – Jamison Crowder is a guy who I always expect to catch 100 balls, so… yeah.
169 – Josh Allen has a high floor as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over, and his ceiling isn’t low as much as it’s mostly low, like it’s high in the garage but low everywhere you actually spend any time.
173 – Kirk Cousins is just good. This is ridiculous value for a guy whose offensive line and receiving weapons improved in the offseason. And Shelby doesn’t even need the value!
(Keep in mind, there is a dumb amount of quality QB help in free agency right now that will evaporate in two weeks.)
176 – The Browns defense is stacked on paper and starting the year against a team whose best O-lineman (conveniently the left tackle) is suspended.
181 – Rob Gronkowski will piss me off a lot if he comes back and Cameron still has him.
184 – Mahomed Sanu had more receiving yards than Calvin Ridley last year.
189 – CJ Mosley is the highest-paid LB only partly because Jets ex-GM Mike Maccagnan is a moron. He is joining Gregg Williams’ dumb defense but plays the perfect position (right in the middle) to rack up tackles.
191 – Corey Littleton was like fifth in LB points and the only major difference in his life is that Suh is gone, and Suh didn’t even matter in the regular season.
192 – Matt Bryant plays like 14 dome games this year, and his offense is supposedly real good, only it’s unclear whether Koetter is the kicker curse or not.
Reaches I won’t do, mostly because I can’t start writing about Devin Singletary, who I’m really not even sure how I… look, I said I wasn’t ready yet. As I type, people are dropping a decent amount of their reaches anyway. Plus, there isn’t an organic title for a section on reaches.
No, really, I’m not doing it. I even started doing it after typing the paragraph before this, and it just didn’t make sense.
I’m also not ranking teams. I’ll let this weekend’s melee sort it out. But I will pick a top six and a (power) bottom six.
Melee Winners
Kennedy
Cameron
Evan
Doak
Shelby
Spencer
Melee Losers
The rest of you, obviously
