Evans: 66 catches; 1,121 yards; 152 FP
Brown: 81 catches; 1,028 yards; 180 FP
2018 Games with 20+ FP
Evans 3
Brown 3
So the race is still tight, then.
Not gonna lie, I’m pretty butt-hurt. Not only did I miss the playoffs despite the other 6-6 teams losing, I scored a league-worst 82.8, and the 0.1 separating me from Oliver is like a cold knife separating my ribs. I’m sure Evan wouldn’t have minded my team showing up either, as that 0.1 was the difference in him missing the playoffs. I mean, of course it wasn’t really the difference. Just as losing the melee didn’t force me to miss the playoffs. Dropping the Packers D in Week 4 then losing by less than the difference between them and the Seahawks D that week, that hurt worse. As did the week where I traded for Raider Amari Cooper at 9:55 PST and immediately slotted him in my lineup over Boyd, only watch Coop get concussed as Boyd scored maybe his career-high in FP. Those hurt worse than doing nothing in Week 14. Being undeserving of the playoffs is a distinction that accumulates. Evan feels me on this one. He can look back as far as keeping Derrick Henry over Adam Thielen to find where he began missing the playoffs.
There are no individual matchups to recap, so I’m just going to keep rambling. Sean has his chance at redemption, and I blame myself. It’s not just that I drafted Antonio Brown #1 overall in a non-PPR league; I wasn’t even considering Todd Gurley. There was too much evidence that a #1 RB wouldn’t repeat as a #1 RB. And I wasn’t alone in thinking Jared Goff was smoke and mirrors, or that defenses would just figure out the Rams given an entire summer to watch tape and talk to people, especially since some Rams coaches left for other teams. Do coaches sign NDAs, and if so, how would that even work? I know players don’t, since it became public knowledge that the Cowboys asked Amari Cooper if he learned any “cool plays” in Oakland. Dude, fuck the Raiders. And fuck the Chargers while we’re at it. If the entire state of California stopped playing professional football for a year, I’d be fine with it. I mostly just want the summer to get here for the Raiders and Niners so I can see how they’ll go from worst to first in their divisions. Okay, the Niners probably won’t, but remember how unsustainable the Rams setup is on defense. I know their defense has allowed plenty of yards and points, but so would any defense being competed against as if they were already the champs. I’m so glad the Bucs don’t have to play them for another two years. Hopefully they’ll have cooled off by then.
Props to Kennedy for Mr. Bean-ing his way into the sixth seed. The 0.1 that kept Evan out is the same one that kept Kennedy in. The sixth seed has had some success in our league. In 2014, I finished the regular season in sixth (at 6-8!) on my way to winning the whole thing over Kennedy, who finished the regular season fifth that year. Recently, it’s not so great. Coleman and I have finished fifth and sixth in the regular season on our way to finishing sixth and fifth in the postseason. For more on our league history, wait until next August, when I attempt to write the definitive history going all the way back to our humble beginnings in 2009, also known as The Year of the Draft Wall. Legendary.
Anyway, any chance Kennedy has of advancing in the playoffs is in Russell Wilson’s hands now that . Wilson has been playing like the league MVP of a league without Pat Mahomes. I despise the notion that Drew Brees could win MVP over Mahomes. It’s times like these when I want to abolish the vote. Just let computers crunch numbers and tell us how it’s going to be now. No more toilet paper, fine. Let’s all get hoses installed. Just give Mahomes what he deserves.
Kennedy’s second best player is his kicker. Let’s hope Tim puts him out of his misery this week.
Could we have had any more teams limp into the playoffs? Corey just scored 85 points on his way to securing the 4-seed. I’ll say this in his favor: Cam Newton has to be the only QB in the league who can throw four picks, get sacked four times, and still finish the game with double-digit FP. Corey, even if you had a chance of beating Sean this week and advancing, I’d still advise you to cut AJ Green, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore, and Nelson Agholor in an attempt to secure some worthwhile keeper prospects.
This is the part where you tell me you scored 158 two weeks ago and I have no idea what I’m talking about. Last week was an anomaly across the league, you’ll say, I mean, did you even see what the Jaguars did to Andrew Luck?! YOU THINK THIS SHIT IS REAL?!
Corey’s awful Week 14 is the bird poop on your shoulder of fantasy performances. It’s good luck because there’s no way it gets worse.
TIM!!!! My boy Tim, who I’ve been repping since finding him in a back alley slathered with vodka and playing with matches, is in as good a position as anyone to finally get the championship he richly deserves. He comes in on a two-game losing streak in which his weekly average score (133) is higher than Kennedy’s average score in games in which he wins (131). In fact, Kennedy’s weekly average in wins is just 0.2 PPG higher than Tim’s average score in losses this season. Am I overhyping? I’m overhyping.
Brian and Cameron deserve some credit for being the only teams with winning records to win during the melee week. That is all on them until next week.
I’m not prepared to do regular-season superlatives, so I’m going to do what I did last season and hand out superlatives after the championship, which is when it makes sense anyway. The separation between regular season and postseason stats in professional sports has never made sense. College sports don’t do this. I need some explanation on this. (Googling…) Nothing. The only reason I’ve seen is that baseball (the oldest sport) originally considered its postseason an exhibition. The pennant was the real prize for being the best team, while the World Series was more intended as fanfare. Other sports appear to have simply followed suit. It makes sense to retroactively pump up the postseason. There’s much money to be made saying that these games are more important than the regular games.
The other argument for separating the two appears related to Hall of Fame discussion and contract negotiation. Players with an equal number of games played are more easily comparable, but this argument is pretty fucking stupid since there are maybe ten players per team in the NFL who play all 16 games. This is why I lean more heavily on the notion that the split is tied more directly to contract negotiations. An agent needs that leverage to argue that all QBs who throw for 4,000 yards should be paid a similar wage. An argument could also be made that if you include postseason games, it adds the appearance of more wear on the tires. Keeping it regular season keeps it simple, and simple sells.
Anyway.
Let’s pour one out for the homeys who are playing for next year, especially homeys like Oliver, who don’t have a realistic chance of making it any higher than 11th in the final standings. Oliver is our Promethean liver, regenerating every week only to be devoured once more. Instead of stealing fire, it was drafting Aaron Rodgers 12th that brought on this sentence. Next year, follow the rule: never draft a QB in the first round.
It’s never too early to think about next year. For teams as trash as mine (cheers, Oliver), the time to think keepers was like three weeks ago. Even though it’s just two spots, the prospect has rented space in my brain every week since before the draft. Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chubb, and Royce Freeman were drafted with low-key keeper intentions. Lamar Jackson and Chris Godwin were drafted with keeper intentions the likes of which one shouts from the rooftops. There’s not much difference to me whether I keep a guy for early value or late value, probably because my options suck and I’m going to trade away most of my players anyway. I don’t have an Alvin Kamara or a Patrick Mahomes with which to build a pseudo-dynasty. This intro is going nowhere. Just know that when you see Josh Allen on my team, know this: I’m holding onto him so that you can’t.
There are six teams playing for next year right now. We have pretty even odds at getting that first pick, though I’d argue that scores are trending toward Evan, Spe, and Coleman finishing top-3, with Shelby Oliver, and me occupying slots 4-6. I’ll just say it plainly: cut everyone who’s not winning you games now or projected to start every game for you next year. Go home, Randall Cobb. Go home and don’t come back until the 12th round next season.
There are six teams playing for glory and money. The odds are not even. Cameron is the heavy favorite, Sean has a chance, Brian keeps winning somehow, and Tim does what he wants. Corey and Kennedy, start planning for next year.
Let’s look at some potential decisions (and realistic options):
Cameron is obviously keeping Alvin Kamara, who has early value remaining after being kept for late value coming into this year. In 2020, he’ll be released to the public again, like Tyreek will in this coming season. So it’s really just the late keeper open for debate, but most of Cameron’s quality players were early picks. Choosing from today’s roster, we’re basically looking at Baker Mayfield, David Njoku, James White, or the Vikings D. James White is 10th in total points among RBs, but is that sustainable? There are three possibilities for the Pats next year, put here in order of likelihood: Brady retires, Brady regresses, or Brady remains the same. Only in the third case does James White continue to dominate. So then do you go Mayfield? Is there any reasonto doubt his ascendance to Mahomesian levels next season, what with the offensive revolution in full swing? Or is it a player I didn’t mention, odds-on favorite for DPOY, Aaron Donald, who’s one pace to break the single-season record for sacks? (Donald leads DL in FP by a wide margin. He has 14 more than #2 Watt and 23 more than #3 Hunter.) You know who doesn’t care about next year’s keepers? The guy winning this year’s championship.
Brian is obviously keeping Jameis Winston with his early slot, but he has options late. Derwin James graduated from FSU and has recently been called the perfect modern defender. He is second in points among DBs as a rookie. But does he garner higher draft capital than Andrew Luck’s starting RB Marlon Mack or Bucs’ #2 target Chris Godwin?
(Because that’s how we should make these decisions. Where is this guy’s draft value? This is the way I put it to Shelby last summer, when she was choosing between Jerick McKinnon and the Jags defense. Shelby wanted to keep the Jags because (we fairly assumed) the Jags would produce consistently high scores at a thin and unpredictable position. The rub was this: Jerick McKinnon was projected to be drafted in the top 30. The earliest a defense has ever been drafted in our league is the sixth round, and it was by me, meaning even the seventh round is probably too soon. So Shelby did what Jon Gruden thinks he’s doing by grabbing an extra pick for a player she didn’t even want. She was able to reach for the Jags in the seventh, though technically it was her eighth pick. That’s good value for a defense you think is going to lead the league in FP. It didn’t work out, but that’s not how we make decisions. And besides, it totally worked out because McKinnon didn’t even play. At least Jacksonville hit double digits a couple times before flaming out so spectacularly.)
So Brian is an interesting pickle because the draft value of IDPs is so unpredictable. The earliest we’ve drafted an IDP was with the 35th pick, which Sean used on either JJ Watt or Luke Kuechly; I can’t remember. He used the 38th pick on the other, so it doesn’t matter. In the 2018 draft, Coleman bit first on IDP, taking (legend) Bobby Wagner with the 60th. That’s decent value even if you ignore the $10 Coleman earned from Wagner leading all IDPs in points this week. Lavonte David went 64th, Kuechly went 71st, and a bunch of IDPs were drafted in the seventh and eighth. Let’s say that since Derwin is only the second best DB and 10th best IDP, he would for sure be there at Brian’s sixth pick, and Marlon Mack is projected to go in the fourth round where quality starting RBs typically go, then Brian would still have to keep Derwin based solely on me Heisenberging this situation. While we all love Chris Godwin, he’s not realistically part of this discussion.
Tim has to release Davante Adams back into the wild, along with Julio Jones and Leonard Fournette. Though early-value picks are probably best spent on offensive players, Khalil Mack has provided enough double-digit finishes to be someone’s weird obsession next summer. If Sean drafted Watt with the 35th pick, I could see someone making the case for Mack. Though Mack has just 99 points, he’s amassed them in about 8.5 games, giving him an average in the neighborhood of Aaron Donald (who I’m more convinced will be Cam’s keeper, especially if Mack is Tim’s). Are IDPs making a surge as players we take seriously? I think they might be. So anyway, Mack’s the early keeper, but who does Tim keep late? Aaron Jones, Jamal Adams, and the Texans D stand out. Jamal Adams’ 12.5 PPG (just a hair under Julio’s average) is sexier than booty sweat, but Aaron Jones is going to be a second-round pick. You keep Jones and don’t even think about it.
Dark horse worth mentioning: Tim could choose to keep both Chris Thompson and Aaron Jones as a smart correction to the RB plague he suffered this season. Thompson had a lost year but is just one year removed from being an every-week start at RB.
Corey has made a few of sweet pick-ups qualified to be his late-round keeper. The first was Calvin Ridley, one of maybe 20 non-QBs with a proven ceiling of 35 points (yes, one game qualifies as proof; it’s just a ceiling). The second (trade acquisition) Tyler Boyd who has out-produced Ridley in total points, with steadier production. Ridley has six games with less than 5 FP, five games with more than 13 FP, and zero in between; Boyd has three games below 5 FP, five games above 13, and four games in between. Ridley is sexier, but Boyd is safer. The third is Eagles’ RB Josh Adams, who might be stealing Jay Ajayi’s job as we speak. Ajayi will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and was never that good in the first place; Adams is cost-controlled for a few years, which the Eagles are aware of and borderline obsessed with. I’m considering Adams the starter going into next year, one who’s gotten a larger share of snaps than Ajayi ever did.
I’m assuming Corey spends the early keeper on Cam Newton, with no need for explanation.
Sean used his late keep on Zach Ertz last season, setting him up for early status in 2019, but he’s got some competition. Luke Kuechly continues to be worth drafting in the early rounds because he scores enough to be a top-20 flex, and he does it with sustainable stats like tackles, stuffs, and pass-breakups. I think the deciding factor will be the scarcity of the TE position. With just two or three reliable TEs league-wide, Ertz could sneak into the third round of next year’s draft, whereas Kuechly’s ceiling is still the fourth-rounder Sean used on him two years ago.
More intriguing is the late keeper, as Sean has spent all of his resources on week-to-week success rather than thinking of next year. As I’m writing this, he doesn’t even appear to have options outside of Dante Pettis and Greg Zeurlein. Pettis projects to start next season, and Legatron is averaging more PPG than Ertz! While there isn’t exactly scarcity at kicker, there is rampant uncertainty. Still, there is time for another name (cough, Derrick Henry) to enter the fold.
Kennedy found his way into the playoffs via a coffin in the cargo hold, so I’m hoping he’s thinking more of the future than the present. These playoffs for Kennedy will be what mainstream success was for Soulja Boy. Let’s see: he used a late keeper on Juju coming into this year. His only other strictly early-eligible player is Marquise Goodwin, who like… why? I mean, okay, next year looks good. Fine.
Of course, Kennedy could designate one of his late players for early value, and the obvious option is Marvin Jones, who Kennedy drafted in the third, then dropped, then traded for in order to take the long road to that sweet keep. You know who else is amazing? Ka’imi Fairbairn! If Kennedy’s not keeping Juju (which he totally is), he’s keeping some combination of Jones, Fairbairn, and Eric Ebron. I already mentioned the bleak TE landscape, where Ebron is one of maybe five players you can count on, and even he makes you nervous! I’d base my decision purely on draft capital and keep Juju early and Jones late. But you can’t fault the man if he chooses Ebron instead. Uh… Chris Carson (but not really).
Evan re-signed Ronald Jones, and I can understand why. (Note: I don’t believe in what I’m about to say; it’s merely my assumption of Evan’s reasoning.) The Bucs could possibly lose another game this year, eliminating them from playoff contention and giving them the opportunity to see what they have in young players like Jones and Justin Watson. In this scenario, RoJo could handle twenty carries per game if the Bucs think he can take the hits. (I won’t even delve into the idiocy of drafting RBs who don’t look capable of taking twenty hits.) Or he could return kicks and see a bunch of snaps at WR. They can do their due diligence blah blah blah. The important thing to remember is that Jones has guaranteed money and doesn’t cost enough to warrant cutting. We’re either trading him for a fifth-round pick or keeping him. I’m sure we’re keeping him at least until August next year. He has time to bulk up and work on his receiving skills. He could transform into a different player. Hopefully he doesn’t work out like crazy. I’d actually prefer he add some fat so his hamstring doesn’t explode clean from his body. I don’t get why players are afraid to add some fat. JJ Watt puts sticks of butter in his morning coffee. Mass matters. These all-muscle dudes look awesome for like ten plays before something pulls or tears. Just run a 4.6 and play every game instead of running a 4.4 and having surgery every year. Oh my god, what was I even talking about? RoJo. Evan picked him up to have the option to keep him for late value, which is awesome after he dropped a second-rounder for him just three months ago. Evan has better options, though, honestly. I think RoJo is just contingency at this point. Phillip Lindsay and Nick Chubb are the clear choices. The struggle is deciding which to designate as early value, but it really doesn’t matter. The answer is Nick Chubb, but it really doesn’t matter. JJ Watt deserves to have his named mentioned before I end this paragraph, as does OJ Howard. It’s just not realistic to sacrifice the value of keeping two high-level RBs for a TE or IDP.
Shelby named her team after Andrew Luck after trading for Luck mid-draft. It seems obvious, just one year after spending her early keeper on Kirk Cousins, that she would turn around and spend a keeper on another QB. The main reason it seems obvious is that his only competition comes from Tarik Cohen and Lavonte David, players I love and have tried to trade for, but also players who project to go in the sixth and seventh rounds. Luck scored 30+ FP in eight straight games before bottoming out when Shelby needed him most, but I think come next draft season, Shelby will remember the good times and keep her guy. As for late value, I don’t think that player is on her roster yet, unless that player is Wil Lutz or Adam Humphries, who might be the same person. The idea of the late-value keeper is that you have assets that accrue value over the course of the season. Keeping Lutz or Humphries seems silly considering they’ll go in those late rounds again if you let them go, but I kept Stafford so nevermind that was a pointless road to go down. Keeping Lutz is the move unless we see some serious roster turnover. Even if you can’t see it now, just go grab guys with a modicum of potential to break out. Cut your extra LB and DL, hold Cousins just so no one else has access, and get yourself some lottery tickets. Or I guess keep Randall Cobb. That seems to be where this is going.
In some way, I was always playing for next year. I drafted too many rookie RBs not to be. I drafted a rookie QB on the off-chance he would be the next RG3 and lift me on high when this point in the season came. My visions haven’t materialized, but to be fair, I didn’t stick to them. I cut bait on my rookies quickly when they didn’t get playing time. I cut bait on Nyheim Hines when he fumbled a kickoff in the preseason! But now I have options. None of them are as good as Nick Chubb, and for that I am sad, but I’m not without hope. Brandin Cooks and Kerryon Johnson will be worth more than early value come August, and my late-keeper list is basically the rest of my roster—besides Jimmy Graham, who I’m just shielding from vultures at this point. It seems that Spencer Ware might be worth as much as anyone on my roster. Remember, the year the Chiefs drafted Kareem Hunt, Ware was the unquestioned starter in that offense, projected to go in the third or fourth round before tearing his ACL. The Chiefs will almost definitely drop a third-rounder on a small-school RB, so what I’m really holding out for is the return of Devonta Freeman, who is eligible to be activated from IR next week. The Falcons activated Deion Jones this week (another option for me), but then they lost, dropping to 4-8. Until that moment, they probably hoped for a miracle playoff chase. Now, with the season all but over, it doesn’t seem logical to risk re-injury to the starting RB they desperately need since Tevin Coleman ain’t it. Regardless, I’m hanging onto Freeman and penciling him in as my late-keeper. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will compete with Deion, the Bears D, and Peyton Barber (and basically anyone I bother to add between now and Week 16) for a spot on my roster next season.
Spencer is keeping Pat Mahomes and James Conner, and it’s not close. It’s hard to cut George Kittle loose in this TE climate, but when your other options are worth first-rounders, yeah, that’s what you do. Sorry this paragraph is so short. I can roast your other options if you want. I can talk about how Jarvis Landry didn’t bless it or how LeSean McCoy wouldn’t be in the conversation even if he wasn’t a second-round pick. I could argue how obvious it is that Gus Edwards out-produces Conner next season when Big Ben gets injured Week 4 and tanks the whole offense. No matter what, I can’t make a decision this obvious match the paragraph length of the rest of us. It’s just not equitable. Own your privilege and move on.
Coleman’s one true early-value-keeper candidate is the legend Bobby Wagner. Actually, Rashaad Penny was an early pick and was never cut. Will he be worth an early pick next season? It seems likely. Chris Carson is injured every other week (literally every other week), and Mike Davis flamed out again. Penny was a first-rounder for the Seahawks, but he was a first-round pick at the most replaceable position in the game. So I guess you hold him and see. Rex Burkhead is also an option, but please don’t. Oh, oh, OH! I was doing a piss-poor job of looking at this draft board. Coleman drafted Deshaun Watson and Penny back-to-back in the 4th round. It’s really between Watson and Wagner, then. I mean, it’s Watson times a million. The late choice doesn’t have as much drama. It’s Tyler Lockett in a landslide over Corey Davis, with Mister Biscuit securing a solid 3% for the Green Party.
Like me, Oliver has been preparing most of the season to make this decision. His options are awesome. For early value, he could keep Drew Brees, assuming he comes back for his age-40 season. Brees is currently QB3, and the only piece of his offense with a question mark is Mark Ingram, who Oliver drafted in the fourth. You might say to yourself, Lamar Miller has come on as of late. He should be in this discussion. I agree, only Lamar Miller was drafted in the third round. The other true-early option for Oliver is Jared Goff. (I’m ignoring Tevin Coleman and Reshad Jones’ keeper potential.) The Goffster is currently QB5 and in no danger of suddenly losing arm strength next year, unlike Brees.
As for late value, Oliver should keep Robert Woods, especially as a potential stack with Goff. But Oliver is holding Denver assets Royce Freeman and Courtland Sutton as well as utter animal Danielle Hunter. I’m ready for anything to happen here, but we can all agree the Goff-Woods stack is the move.
Now, let’s talk about now. Every game matters. Money and draft picks are at stake for the remainder of the season.
A note before we get into it: fifth place has a history of being decided over the course of Weeks 15 and 16. It’s just how Coleman and I have been doing it for two years. The difference between the 7th and 8th pick is negligible, but just this season it was the difference between Melvin Gordon and Mike Evans (okay, Cam passed on Saquon for like no reason), but in a normal draft, it was the difference between Saquon Barkley and DeAndre Hopkins. Both good players, but I know who I’d rather have.
ANYWAY, Coleman and I played a two-week matchup because ESPN just leaves you for dead after you lose a playoff game, so if you’re a playoff team and you lose this week, you and your fellow loser play for two weeks to decide your draft slot UNLESS you have a better idea. I’m confident there are better ideas, so tell me what you’re into.
Okay, ready for predictions, starting from the bottom.
(WAIT one more thing: you might be wondering why the pick ladder goes 7 vs. 8, 9 vs. 10, 11 vs. 12, when most playoffs are seeded best vs. worst. It’s because the ladder attempts to be double-elimination. The 7 and 8 seeds can lose in Week 14 and still rebound to get back in the hunt for the first pick, while the 11 and 12 have to win in order to compete anything above pick 5. Make sense? It doesn’t matter; it’s happening.)
#11 Alan Rails Ghost Trains over #12 Doofus Rick
Not even a loss this week completely buries Oliver. It only excludes him from the chase for the first pick. Coleman’s team is led by Deshaun Watson and Christian McCaffrey, two modern offensive weapons, and they are supported admirably by modern receiver Tyler Lockett, who is an absolute steal at 3 years, 37 million in the same summer Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks signed for 16 mil per year. Lockett is also a steal in our league, drafted somewhere in the teens and likely being kept at that price going into next season. Bobby Wagner and Goatkowski pack punch on the backend, which is a necessity because because the rest of Coleman’s squad is… not good. First-rounder Rashaad Penny has talent but faces maybe the best run D this week when the Vikings come to town. Corey Davis already put his two points in (okay, 2.1). And Coleman is riding Anthony Miller instead of Alshon or Burkhead. Tertiary pieces like Hooper, Snacks, and Geathers could swing this game for better or worse.
Oliver’s team is terrible, but it’s comprised of talented players under-producing. In Weeks 10 and 11, Brees and Ingram averaged a combined 60 points per week. They are both coming off of season lows, and even with the Bucs picking up steam, this feels like an opportunity for a bounce-back for both players. The weather report was showing a gusty slopfest, but now it’s looking more like simple wind and rain. Brees has a history of playing significantly worse outside on the road, and I can’t imagine his splits get any better when you add inclement weather. Go Bucs. Sorry, back to Oliver’s team. The matchups just aren’t there. Tevin Coleman, who has spent his entire life in Georgia, travels to Lambeau, while Robert Woods plays his worst matchup of the season (at Chicago). The Chiefs D gets it’s best test of late in Lamar Jackson, but on the bright side, Oliver’s IDPs have plus matchups. His Dolphins Kiko and Reshad face a team that typically runs more plays than the average offense, great for a game where opportunity drives production, and Danielle Hunter gets to face a Seattle line that still surrenders mucho sacks.
I like Coleman’s team mostly because the ceiling is higher. Oliver just doesn’t have players like McCaffrey and Lockett.
#10 Fitzpat Rick over #9 Pat Cajones
Get your popcorn ready. Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes represent the future of philosophical football debates. The offensive revolution is led by teams that do their best to exploit defensive matchups and disrupt defensive assignments and alter decision-making keys just before the snap. It’s mental. But there remains an opportunity for football to remain a physical. You might realize by now that the Bucs are on the wrong side of history by paying top-dollar for a physical receiver when the game doesn’t allow anybody to touch each other beyond the line of scrimmage unless they have the ball. It’s not a detriment; it’s just not necessary to have receivers who win with physicality. Tyreek Hill can barely hold his own against a [redacted], and he’s doing just fine against NFL secondaries. But Chris Carson has proven that physical RBs can still dominate a game and open up options for vertical offense. Enter the 2018 Ravens, post-Flacco: Gus Edwards was on the verge of losing his roster spot to Ty Montgomery until the Ravens found that he excelled as the second half of the read option. Suddenly, not only do the Seahawks resemble their Super Bowl selves; so do the Ravens. Lamar can make the same throws as Wilson. Remember he’s just three games into his career. Let’s compare the numbers:
Wilson’s first three (2-1 record):
43/75 (57%), 434 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks; 15 carries, 66 yards, 1 FUM, 0 TD
(Marshawn Lynch: 72 carries, 305 yards, 1 TD, 1 FUM)
Jackson’s first three (3-0 record):
39/65 (60%), 453 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 6 sacks; 54 carries, 265 yards, 5 FUM, 2 TD
(Gus Edwards: 61 carries, 315 yards, 1 TD, 0 FUM)
All I’m saying is it’s interesting.
This Chiefs-Ravens game is really all I care about. I don’t care whether Spencer or I win. I care what the future of football looks like. I think even at a professional level it looks a lot like Bama-Oklahoma: power football versus the air-raid offense. In certain situations, it evens resembles a basketball game where you get to stop the game and sub after every possession. My friend’s Uncle Dave thinks defenses will figure it out and pro football will go back to normal. This week might be the week to find out. If only the Ravens hosted the Chiefs like the Bears are hosting the Rams, this would definitely be the week to find out. It’s not that the Ravens are on the road. Defense can travel. It’s Arrowhead that has me lamenting this matchup ahead of time. I’m worried Lamar Jackson turns the ball over four times on miscommunication alone. That said, Lamar is my guess for the week’s top scorer, and I stand by it, even if Josh Allen is suddenly super tempting.
What else can I say about me vs. Spe? I’m glad James Conner is out. I’m wondering whether Jaylen Samuels or Stevan Ridley dominates carries in his stead. I don’t think it matters. All that matters is Lamar Jackson and Spencer Ware versus Pat Mahomes and Gus Edwards. My WRs give me a serious edge, but I think the Bills D has a chance to negate that difference when they outscore the Jags D by 20 points.
I give Spencer the edge but only in an attempt to jinx his shit.
#8 Luck Dynasty over #7 Show me Watt you got!
Jurrell Casey’s 10 points factored into this prediction. The other factor is the reversal I’m expecting across the league. Evan scored a league-high 172 in the melee, with 30 from Lindsay and 27 from Kelce. The Ravens are going to double Kelce and hit him at the line the way the Lions did Gronk earlier this year. (By the way, how is the league not copying this strategy when it’s Matt Patricia engineering it? If anyone knows how to stop Gronk, isn’t most likely that one is Matt Patricia? Cue Cameron vomiting.) Even with all those physical tools, that disruption of timing has more to do with inhibiting success that anything else you can do to mitigate a force like Kelce. Smart defensive coaches in football are the smartest coaches in all of sports. Maybe hitting coaches in baseball can compete, but I think that’s it. No, I don’t feel the need to back up these statements with evidence. Speaking of, the main reason Shelby is winning this game is because the Colts got caught with their pants down last week, and they are too good to do anything but respond with an onslaught against the Texans. Houston has won nine straight to go 9-3 so far. If they win, they lock up the division this week. If the Colts (6-6) win, it’s a whole new ball game. Before shoveling shit around against the Jags, the Colts had ripped off five straight wins, albeit against pretty shitty teams. Honestly, somehow all but one of the Texans’ wins have come against pretty shitty teams, too. That one win was the first of the nine, and it was a 37-34 shootout win over these Colts. Get it, Luck. Fucking get it. Let’s see… what else? Oh, I am assuming Shelby comes to her senses and start Lavonte David. If he sits, pure karma swings this in Evan’s favor. All four RBs (I’m ignoring Jeff Wilson) appear poised for big points in this one; if they do, it’s the WRs who will swing this matchup. Evan’s are better on paper, but also on paper on the ceiling of Golden Tate and Stefon Diggs this season, both higher than Hopkins and Gordon’s. Ugh, maybe Jeff Wilson should be taken seriously. What else are the Niners going to do?
This is my least confident pick of the week.
#5 Rickshank Rickdemption over #4 JCor413 2.0
Matchups matter. Sean’s team, the Chargers, face Cincinnati, and unless that’s a trap game, Sean wins. Gurley’s matchup against the Bears factors in, but it’s a wash as Barkley goes against the Redskins. As bad as the Skins are, their run defense is good, meaning their defense is good. In fact, Sean should definitely start the Skins defense over the Saints this weekend. If I’m Corey, I’m rethinking the Ekeler decision. Ekeler’s production comes as a pass-catcher, and the only two players who have thrown passes for LA this year are in Sean’s lineup. What’s the opposite of hedging your bet? It’s time to lean on Boyd against the Chargers D. Is the Chargers’ D good? Very. But in this game, we chase targets, and Boyd leads the Bengals in targets by a mile when AJ Green doesn’t play. C’mon, do it! While you’re at it, replace Matt Bryant’s bad back in cold weather with something more palatable like Cairo Santos in the rain and wind. Normally, Melvin Gordon’s injury would be good news, but last week it just made River and Allen more dangerous. I’m not banking on a repeat. The rub is this: if it’s not Allen doing the damage by air, it’s probably Justin Jackson doing it by land. And even if the damage is done by air, it’s always Rivers throwing it (except in the rare case that it’s Allen throwing it). I’m sorry I handed Sean Gurley and Allen this season. Since I traded Allen, he’s only become more powerful. Corey’s chance is this: touchdowns. It’s highly unlikely his players amass yardage in their projected gamescripts, but touchdowns are unpredictable. Normally, I’d do anything to root against Sean, but I’d rather root against Cam Newton.
Sorry, Corey.
#3 T Mac Dumpster Fire over #6 Sleepy Gary
Sleepin’ on Sleepy Gary has become a popular trend in this league. I’m going to continue. Tim has Big Ben against Gruden and all the right pieces of that Falcons-Packers matchup. His IDP stack is unquestionably the best in the league. Kennedy’s best player besides Russ is Juju, whose points are tied to Ben’s. Kennedy’s third best player is either Eric Ebron or Chris Carson, and their matchups are equally unappealing. Texans’ LB Zach Cunningham is elite in pass coverage, and he had a pick-six last week. Interceptions come in bunches, according to Ronde Barber, so I like Cunningham to not only blanket Ebron, but pick off a pass intended for him. Chris Carson, meanwhile, faces a top-3 rush defense against which it took 30 carries for the Pats to break 100 yards. The Seahawks will almost certainly rush 30 times, but Rashaad Penny’s getting ten of them, giving Carson a realistic projection of 60 yards and a TD. It’s good production, but are you feeling comfortable knowing your third-highest score is going to be 12 points on Monday night? Hmm, maybe, right? I guess if there’s one thing to keep Kennedy confident, it’s that: he’s got three pieces of the Seattle offense at home on Monday night. If it were me, I’d take Baldwin’s injury seriously and scale it down to two and start Marquise Goodwin. If you don’t start Goodwin in this situation, what are you holding onto him for? The narrative is brilliant: Goodwin’s missed multiple games due to “personal issues” with the team’s support, and his first game back comes at home against a Denver defense that just lost its best corner. Denver has three healthy corners! Start Goodwin, you fool!
But be prepared to bow to the might of Tim.
I’m pooped. Have fun tomorrow. I really wish the Ravens game wasn’t at the same time as the Bucs. I’m going to have to figure something out. Ugh, it’s probably going to be Romo, too! Whyyy???
