Evans: 62 catches; 1,073 yards; 147 FP
Brown: 71 catches, 874 yards, 159 FP
Number of 1,000-yard Seasons to Start Career
Evans: 5
Brown: 0
To be fair, Brown had five consecutive 1K seasons leading into this year, meaning 126 more yards will give him an active streak of six. But who wants fair?
We have a lot to think about this week. Well, seven of us anyway. Cameron, Brian, Spencer, Oliver, and Coleman know where they stand. Cam has the tiebreaker over Brian, but they’re both getting first-round byes. The most that could happen at the bottom is Oliver usurping Spencer for tenth place.
The middle is as messy as you can imagine. Seven of us sit between 7-5 and 5-7, and the points are pretty tight, too.
Sean: 1679 Tim: 1672 Kennedy: 1547 Corey: 1539 Shelby: 1514 Evan: 1502 Doak: 1452
I guess it’s unfair to include Tim in this discussion, as no possible scenario eliminates a 7-5 team with a 125-point lead on any team with potential to match that record. The largest spread in Week 1 was 113 points (Sean over Evan 187-74), making Tim pretty safe. The largest point-spread we’ve seen in one week (independent of matchup) was 118, in Week 10, when Tim scored league-record 195 and I scored just 77. So even the 95 points separating me from Kennedy isn’t an impossible gap to close. My ceiling this season is 145, compared to Kennedy’s floor of a flat 100 (121 since Week 3, 131 in that last month), so I’m not holding my breath. The point is that 45-point spread between Kennedy and Evan is next to nothing, likewise for everything in between. So as I delve into the scenarios, keep in mind the myriad unpredictability when you factor in the potential range of points in addition to the 132 potential matchups and 36 potential W-L-T outcomes.
Unlike Kennedy, I have limited interest in doing the math. I’m not even confident in the last two numbers I threw out there. Me, I’m more narrative-driven.
So how am I going to organize this? I’m going to go team-by-team, maybe sketch out their point-scoring potential, then get into the pseudo-string-theory that will decide their fate. Maybe other things will happen. It’s a long way from here to the end of this note.
Jimmy G String Divas, 10-2, 153 PPG
Even with Antonio Brown on the bench, Cameron is the heaviest favorite to get a win this week. Why is he benching AB in a shootout against the Chargers? It’s either for OBJ vs. Chicago or Sony Michel vs. Minnesota. New York is facing the best pass-rushing line in football, while New England is facing maybe the best run-stuffing line. I can see the arguments for each player, though: with limited time to throw, Eli defaults to slants to OBJ, which are the main route the kid takes to the house. Chicago’s safeties are known better for coverage than tackling, so the yards along should get OBJ to ten. The argument for Sony is simple: he’s the lead back in a game where the Pats will want to control the clock to keep Kirk and Cook from shredding their defense. 20 carries are coming, so even two yards per carry and a goal line score would give Sony the double digits. The argument against Brown is that his floor feels low after Juju’s 17 targets on Sunday. My take is this: Sony hasn’t faced a legitimate run defense all season, and he projects to be in negative gamescript. In a similar scenario against the Titans, who are legitimately terrible against the run, Michel had just 11 carries for 30 yards. Antonio Brown, meanwhile, is Antonio Brown.
The real threat to Cam’s ceiling is Matt Ryan vs. Baltimore. In almost any other week, he could just sub in Mayfield, but Baker at Houston is a terrible play, especially since Baker’s coming in on a hot streak against TB, Pit, KC, Atl, and Cincy. He practices against a better defense than any of those five. He is so incredibly unprepared for what the Texans defense can do to him.
The intrigue: Zeke and Kamara face each other on Thursday, giving us an early look at his odds of winning the week. These two typically finish second and fourth in weekly scoring for Cam, accounting for a quarter of his points. The Saints and Cowboys are both top-5 rush defenses this season, which would mean something if these two backs weren’t capable of 100 yards receiving any given game.
Prediction: Cam falls considerably short of his season average, probably hovering around 120.
Better Call Morty, 9-3, 134 PPG
Brian plays it close to the vest, but why? When Jameis was suspended, I got it. It was your Kaepernick kneel. You were saying, “I don’t care that he’s suspended. Jameis Winston is my quarterback.” Salute and respect. But that’s what was. You’re limping into these playoffs, as are some of your key contributors. Maybe the one question mark this week is the flex spot. I know your second RB is Mixon, who will be surprisingly buoyed by the rushing threat of Jeff Driskel. It’s going to be awesome watching Cincy do to Denver what Baltimore did to Cincy just two weeks ago. Maybe not 27 carries for Driskel, but certainly more rushing than passing. And your second receiver is, duh, Thielen. But the flex choice intrigues me. Actually, no, nevermind. It’s Golladay. And in the TE spot, you picked up Uzomah, but I’m sure you see how that’s silly when you have the #5 TE in fantasy in Jared Cook, who seems to play his best when he’s in your lineup. Jon Gruden should definitely get more credit for reviving Jared Cook’s career. But alas, you don’t get credit for anything when you don’t win anything.
The intrigue: Brian forgot to start Golladay last Thursday. If I wait long enough to post this, he might just forget to start Demarcus Lawrence this Thursday. Brian, a word of advice: if you’re not going to start Tre’Quan Smith on Thursday night, cut him. Grab something you might actually use in Week 15 when you need it. Same goes for Uzomah, Fitzpatrick, and the Titans D come Sunday. Cut the fat.
Prediction: Jameis Winston powers Brian to victory. Does the point total even matter?
T Mac Dumpster Fire, 7-5, 139 PPG
The dumpster is catching fire at the perfect time. Tim may have fallen short of challenging Brian for that bye week, but his 151 points came easy and project to come again and again this season. Fournette being out this week is tough, and it could sink Tim’s seed, but he’s the favorite in any matchup Week 14 regardless. I already mentioned the shootout between the Steelers and Chargers, where Big Ben is at home, where he has feasted for 51 twice this year already. Tim is hoping Chris Thompson finally plays because if he does, he’s going to be Cody Kessler—I mean Colt McCoy’s number one target. Aaron jones should feast against a terrible Cards rush defense, but if there’s trouble brewing, it’s for Tim’s top dogs Julio and Davante. Then again, Julio’s worst game this year was a 6.4, Davante’s was 9.1, so there’s nothing to worry about.
Intrigue: Tim and most of the teams after him actually have scenarios worth delving into.
3rd seed:
Tim wins (he has the H2H tiebreaker over Corey)
4th seed:
Tim loses AND Corey wins
(there are other scenarios, but again, they involve someone outscoring Tim by 125+ AND getting matched up with him)
5th seed:
Tim loses, Corey wins, Kennedy AND Shelby lose, AND
I win such that I get matched up with Tim (thus winning the H2H tiebreaker with Tim, which no other potential 7-6 team can do; anything other than a two-way tie at 7-6 between me and Tim guarantees him a higher seed)
Prediction: Tim wins, thus he earns the 3 seed.
JCor413 2.0, 7-5, 128 PPG
I’m sure this weekend’s matchup didn’t go over well in the Ware home. Shelby never stood a chance. As someone who played Saquon during his best game of the year, I can feel the pain of his 28 points on Sunday. The thing about Saquon’s points is that they don’t trickle in. They come in huge chunks, so he has four and then nine and then 15 and then 20, and before you know it, he’s knocking on 30. But the real frustration had to be Gronk and Edelman going off together. But then again, not knowing who Josh Adams is while watching him put in the third most on the team has to be pretty frustrating, too. I’m not buying a repeat of those 150. Cam should have a pretty big game against TB, but Barkley should cool off against Chicago, Adams should see tough sledding against a stout Redskins run D, and even Michael Thomas can’t be trusted after Drew Brees carved a piece for everyone on Thanksgiving. BUT, Corey could get creative here and install Carlos Hyde (starting instead of Lenny) over Adams and Frank Gore over Tyler Boyd, though I admit the Gore play does seem to cap this team’s ceiling. Luckily for Corey, he just earned the tiebreaker over Shelby and conveniently has a 1-1 record against me because of the Week 1 melee, giving him a much-needed edge should his team falter this week. Of the teams with winning records, his is surely the shakiest.
Scenarios:
3rd Seed: Corey wins and Tim loses
4th Seed:
Corey wins and Tim wins (H2H tie goes to Tim)
Corey loses and Kennedy loses.
Corey loses, Kennedy wins, and Shelby and Doak lose.
Corey loses, Kennedy wins, and Corey avoids any compound-tiebreaker decided by points. (Let me explain. Each of us has played each other once, with soon-to-be two exceptions: the melee weeks. There will be compounded ties where the H2H tiebreaker can’t be used since the teams tied don’t have an equal number of games played against each other. Example: Tim, Corey, and Shelby have one game against each other. A three-way tie gets broken easily: Tim 2-0, Corey 1-1, Shelby 0-2. But Corey and I have played twice just as Shelby and Kennedy have played twice; and it just so happens that we split these matchups, now lack H2H tiebreakers, thus ESPN defaults to total points in that case that three or more of us end up with tying records. Should it instead default to point-differential across the two matchups? Of course. But here we are. So basically, it’s difficult to draw up each exact situation because of how many ways the points lead can change. Just know that if more than two teams enter into a tiebreaker situation, it’s most likely to default to points. One exception is Tim, Kennedy, and Corey, a tiebreaker where Tim is 2-0, Corey is 1-1, and Kennedy is 0-2. BUT in some cases, ESPN uses points to break a multi-way tie, but then reverts back to H2H to break subsequent ties. Example: Corey, Shelby, and I tie at 7-6. Corey wins the initial tie with points, but then Shelby wins the remaining tie with the H2H over me. You’re all loving this. You are.)
5th seed:
Corey loses, Kennedy wins, either Shelby or Doak wins (but not both), and Corey maintains his current tiebreakers. He could potentially lose H2H and the points lead he has over Shelby or the H2H he has over me depending on the matchups.
6th seed:
Tim wins, Corey loses, Kennedy wins, and Shelby wins AND she gets matched up with Corey to outscore him by 26.
Tim wins, Corey loses, Kennedy wins, and Doak win AND gets matched up with Corey.
Prediction: Congratulations, Corey. Despite likely losing the melee week, you’re guaranteed a playoff spot. Just kick back and relax. (Or don’t. I’ve been known to be wrong about these things.)
Sleepy Gary, 6-6, 128 PPG
Can we take a moment to reflect on how Kennedy was dead in the water at 1-4 and somehow finished 5-2 (with the points lead where it matters) to put himself in pole position going into the melee. If Kennedy wins, he’s in. But can he win? The Seahawks play SF, making Russ and Carson quality starts. Hunt plays Gruden. Check. The Colts play Jacksonville, which suddenly seems like a cush matchup, but really it feels like the ultimate trap game. The Colts have won five straight; the Jags have lost seven straight. The Jags have opted to start Cody Kessler over Jake Jortles. The hot topic this week is how much crow Jalen Ramsey has eaten, how the Jags missed their playoff window. I hate dichotomies (except for the one true dichotomy), but it really seems like either the Jags are going to lose by 20 (realistically 30) or win by 20 (realistically 10). Either way, this game is going to swing something, whether it’s the AFC South or Kennedy’s playoff chances. He can’t bench Hilton or Ebron when the team is this hot. It’s just too bold. But he can bench Doug Baldwin, and I’m going to put it outhere that he should start Jordan Howard in the flex. The Giants are not going to score much against Chicago, and the Giants do not defend the run well. Jordan Howard has been a mixed bag, for sure. I’m saying this is the week you avoid the chex and pull the chocolate.
Scenarios:
Tim has H2H and points over Kennedy, which should make this easier since the seeding starts lower. I’m not going to lie to you: I’m going to do less in terms of deciphering all the scenarios. Suffice it to say that you have to avoid tiebreakers you’re going to lose when shit gets complicated. Win and you’re in.
3rd seed:
Kennedy breaks the 200-barrier and Tim finishes with 74 or less. Riiight.
4th seed:
Kennedy wins and Corey loses, so long as Kennedy keeps the points lead and avoids the dread four-way with Corey, Shelby, and me.
5th seed:
Kennedy wins and Corey loses, only Kennedy gets all up in that four-way I mentioned.
Kennedy wins and Corey wins.
Kennedy loses, Doak and Shelby and Sean lose
6th seed:
Corey wins, Kennedy wins, and Kennedy loses points lead to Shelby
Kennedy loses, Doak and Shelby lose but Sean wins
7th seed:
Kennedy loses, Shelby and Doak win
Kennedy loses, Doak and Sean win
8th seed:
Kennedy loses, Shelby and Doak and Sean win
9th seed:
Shelby, Doak, and Sean win, AND Evan wins by 46 matched up with Kennedy
Prediction: This could get dark real quick for a team not guaranteed a high score this week. I don’t envision Kennedy winning, but I also don’t envision Shelby, Sean, or myself winning. So there’s hope, even if it mostly goes to shit. As long as it all doesn’t go to shit. That’s what matters.
Luck Dynasty, 6-6, 126 PPG
Shelby and Kennedy are yin and yang. Shelby started the season 4-1 but arrives to the melee maybe the most middling team there is. She’s sixth in the standings and seventh in points. And for the first time in a long time, Kirk Cousins (@NE) might be the move at QB this week. Not really. Luck is so hot that even if his ship is doomed to fall apart, you have to ride it. Her whole lineup can be described by the words “better than the alternative.” The IDP options Foster, Casey, and Simmons have got to be the least sexy the league has to offer, but the capricious nature of the IDP in general has me thinking that doesn’t matter. David Johnson has the matchup (@GB) to deliver 20+ points, as does Diggs, but Golden Tate hasn’t been the go-to guy for Wentz that he was for Stafford. There’s plenty of time for the move to work out for Philly, but Shelby needs it to happen now. Jordan Reed is the main beneficiary of Colt McCoy not knowing what to do with the ball, and Adam Humphries is on a streak of five games with at least 50 yards, plus he has four TDs in his last four games.
Scenarios:
Most importantly, win and you’re in.
4th seed:
Shelby gets matched up with Corey and wins by 26+
5th seed:
Shelby wins and Kennedy loses
Shelby and Kennedy win, and Shelby outscores K by 33+
6th place:
Shelby and Kennedy win, but K maintains the points lead
Shelby loses, and Doak and Sean lose
There are plenty of weird scenarios where Shelby loses and lands in 7th place. I’m sure I can skip them without hurting her feelings. There is exactly one scenario where she finishes 8th: Kennedy, Sean, Evan , and I win while Shelby loses.
Mirror Rick, 6-6, 121 PPG
I know I don’t deserve to make the playoffs, but I want it so bad! And if somehow Lamar Jackson can take me there, isn’t that something we can all root for this holiday season? I’m potentially starting Austin Ekeler and Doug Martin, and I’m not even really debating them against anyone on my bench. Bring on The Replacements! But with Evans, Cooper, and Cooks in the receiving slots, it’s not like I’m starting all scrubs. Plus I’m rolling out the #1 DST Chicago Bears against Eli. Okay, technically, they’re playing Saquon, too, but I think they just stick Roquan to Saquon man-to-man and actually see success in doing so. My IDPs give me confidence this week, as Clowney gets to go against the weakest member of Cleveland’s line, Martinez faces David Johnson’s 25 predictable touches, and Harrison Smith matches up with Gronk.
Scenarios:
4th seed:
Shelby and Kennedy lose, and I get matched up with Corey and win.
5th seed:
I win, and Shelby and Kennedy lose.
6th seed:
I win, and Shelby or Kennedy lose.
If I lose, I’m out, so let’s not even get into it. If I lose and Sean and Evan win, I can slide all the way to 9th.
(Side note: I’ve decided how to sort melee matchups next season. I’m going to let the top scorer choose who they want to defeat among the six losers, then let the second-best scorer choose, and so on. So many opportunities for hijinks and hurt feelings. I love it.)
Richshank Rickdemption, 5-7, 140 PPG
Despite starting Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley and scoring hella points almost every week, Sean’s team has never really looked good. Still, he’s third in scoring, so it’s only right that he has a shot to play for money this season. His team’s mettle will be tested, as Melvin Gordon sits for the melee. In his place, Sean slots Matt Breida, who is averaging a respectable 11 FP (though nothing close to Gordon’s 19). In games where Breida doesn’t injure his knee in the second quarter, his average is closer to 15. That would be fine if there were much else to Sean’s success. Philip Rivers has been dominant by NFL standards but just very good by fantasy ones, and though it feels like Keenan Allen has been electric since Sean snagged him from me, he’s merely been consistently good, scoring between 12 and 15 each of the last four weeks. Allen hasn’t had a 20-point game in over a year, and he’s had just four in his whole career. Still, high floors are valuable when the water rises like it is on Sean right now. Speaking of, Zach Ertz and Luke Kuechly will need to be the lifeguard daydreams Sean thinks they are in order to save this team from drowning. In the flex, Sean currently has Mike Davis, who’s totaled six points in two weeks since Carson resumed starting. He’s likely to swap in Yeldon, but he might be best off slotting in Malcolm Brown because the Rams are going to put the Lions away in the first half, and Stafford just doesn’t have the weapons to lead any kind of comeback attempt. I see the Rams leading by 25 and pounding Brown most of the second half. Are we still doing phrasing?
Scenarios:
5th seed:
Sean wins and Kennedy, Shelby, and Doak lose
6th seed:
Sean and Doak win, Kennedy and Shelby lose
Sean, Kennedy, and Evan win; Doak and Shelby lose
Sean, Shelby, and Evan win; Kennedy and Doak lose
Again, keep in mind that these scenarios don’t take into account all the tiebreaker possibilities that occur from all the different matchups. These are all “in a vacuum”-type scenarios. Still, with a win, Sean has a few ways to get in.
Show me Watt you got!, 5-7, 125 PPG
Ronald Jones is back! But seriously, the real story here is, of course, Phillip Linday and Nick Chubb trying to power Evan into the playoffs, or at least the game for the #1 pick. I honestly don’t know how a team of Wentz, two solid RBs, Hopkins, Gordon, and Kelce came to be in such dire straits. Maybe it was a case of staggered bye weeks, leaving Evan at relatively low strength too many weeks in a row—he’s lost three of four coming into this week. Maybe it’s just that he’s never quite filled his flex spot—he’s mostly just plugged in Titans RBs, which barely qualifies as an attempt. Watt is the #1 DL we anointed him to be from the first year we did IDP, and Corey Littleton has been surprisingly prolific. A win from Evan this week would at least prove his team is better than it’s record suggests.
Scenarios:
It’s difficult to crunch every permutation, but I think it’s impossible for Evan to make the playoffs. Here’s the one scenario that might work.
6th seed:
Kennedy wins; Sean, Shelby, and Doak lose; and Evan gets matched up with Shelby or me in order to trigger a point-break tie, AND Evan outscores Shelby by 12+ in order to take the points lead in that three-way tie. Again, I think even in this scenario, there is potential that there is a wrinkle I’ve overlooked that keeps Evan out. Let’s call it a 2% chance.
Prediction: Some scenario ending with Evan in eighth place.
Doofus Rick, 4-8, 116 PPG
It’s been a long season, I’m sure. Each time Oliver has scored over 122 points, he has won, but that’s only happened four time. Meanwhile, he’s scored 110 or less seven times. Could he win this week? Sure! Would it do much? Actually, it would. Finishing in tenth place greatly increases one’s odds of avoiding the 5th and 6th picks in next year’s draft. So let’s see, Oliver’s bringing Drew Brees on the road, assuring mediocre production from the QB position. Would Jared Goff have been a better play on the road against Detroit? At this point, who cares? His starting RBs are Ingram, Coleman, and Miller. He’s starting Mike Williams! I just don’t see this crew being a factor this week, but I won’t rule Oliver out of the #1 pick race without further evaluation.
Scenarios:
10th seed:
Oliver wins
11th seed:
Spe wins and Oliver loses
Prediction: Oliver finishes 11th
Fitzpat Rick, 4-8, 126 PPG
Mahoooomes! I mean, sure, there are other players on this team, like George Kittle and… Joe Schobert? What am I looking at here? The Bills D and Mason Crosby?! You realize that we have a structure that disincentivizes tanking, right? But seriously, I like watching you continue to get the backups for your star players. First it was Conner, then it was Reynolds. I’m waiting for the day Kittle goes down and you grab (check notes) Garrett Celek. Your hit-rate on these backups has been outstanding.
Scenarios:
10th seed:
Spe wins and Oliver loses
11th seed:
Literally all other scenarios.
Prediction: The latter. Don’t make me care about this.
Alan Rails’ Ghost Trains, 3-9, 114 PPG
For as bad as that record and PPG are, this isn’t a bad team. Coleman is fresh off of a 140-point performance, led by none other than McCafe and Watson. And let’s not ignore Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis, who need to be started in tandem from here on out if Coleman is serious about that top pick. I think the most disappointing thing about how disappointing Alshon Jeffery has been is that there’s no root cause for this disaster. In his first four games, Jeffery had 300 yards and 4 TDs. In the four since, he’s had 150 yards and no TDs. I guess I’d keep riding him, but it just doesn’t seem like they’re even going to him consistently anymore, and I haven’t read or heard anything about this. Is this the long con? The back-end of Coleman’s lineup is cash money, though, with Wagner, Collins, and Goatkowksi crushing it weekly.
Prediction: probably more disappointment and hopefully less me hyping this thing in the future.
I’m completely out of steam.
Winners: Divas Dumpster Morty Mirror Watt Gary Losers: Luck JCor Rails Doofus Fitz Shank
