Evans: 7 catches per game, 96 yards, 13.5 points
Brown: 7 catches per game, 80 yards, 14 points
So there we go. It took six weeks from Brown to surpass Evans in points per game, though Brown is doing it with an extra five targets per game. I expect this week to draw the comparison closer to even.
So, coach firing season is upon us. It’s not likely to spark a trend. These were old-world coaches who needed to be put out to pasture. I don’t see much more firing coming mid-season. The reason coaches get fired mid-season is that they’re a detriment to team culture. These teams are more interested in stopping the skid than actively improving. Both fired coaches—Bucs DC Mike Smith and Cards OC Mike McCoy—were statistically the worst at what they were doing. Smith’s defense allowed something like 450 yards per game, while McCoy’s offense was scoring 13 points per game. The logic here is that there’s no way a change could make the teams worse. These are historically bad numbers.
What can the Bucs hope to improve from this change? Pass rush. For years, even before Mike Smith, the Bucs have failed to generate substantial pressure. Their rush defense was already good. You can thank their Pro Bowl DT and LBs for that the last few years, and the four additional offseason players don’t hurt either. Run defense is rarely about playcalling or scheme in general. It’s mostly about gap/edge discipline and form tackling, something these guys usually bring on their own if they want to make a regular season roster. (As always, I need Evan or Corey to correct me if I’m wrong when it comes to nuts and bolts stuff.)
What can the Cards hope to improve on offense? Literally all of it. The main criticism of McCoy is the criticism we can apply to any old-guard coach. He is a system coach, which means he tries to take the players he has and mold them to his system. The converse of this is the McVays and Shanahans of the world. They go get players who fit what they want to do on offense, even if it means ditching good talent to do it. Past that, they adjust the offense to what their players do well already. They teach their players well, which is how it ends up seeming like their players can do anything. (Tangent: Imagine if Kyle Shanahan had taken the Chargers job. Could there have been a better one-city rivalry in sports than McVay-Gurley vs. Shanny-Gordon? Not to mention San Fran’s trash roster.) So what you get is a slow-ish start because guys are acclimating, as opposed to what’s happening in McCoy’s offense, where guys are practically playing out of position, and the plays don’t make enough sense to create an offensive rhythm. The best line I saw on Twitter after McCoy’s playcalling, besides the obvious up-the-middle stuff, was Rotoworld’s Evan Silva musing how it’s possible that every pass play was designed to be a tightly contested out-route to the sideline. If you’re wondering how a guy throws two pick-sixes, that’s how. Throw a ball the DB gets to break on toward the endzone while the receiver is breaking to the sideline. (It’s another way of giving your guy the chance to make a play. If you’re going to risk it, at least risk it in a way your receiver can play some defense if it goes tits up). So what do we look forward to? The return of David Johnson the receiver. The return of JJ Nelson the deep threat. The return of Larry the target hog. It will happen immediately because the only player that needs to get up-to-speed is the QB, and all he has to do is make the throws, which it seems Rosen can. Arizona gets a San Fran rematch and then their bye. They are truly going to be fine in the second half. This 1-6 team could easily finish 6-10, which is about as good as anyone expected when they were 0-0. The fact that they’ve won a game is amazing, and the team they get fresh off the firing is the team they already beat!
Back to the Bucs for a second, they waited too long to fire Smith. It should have happened right after the Bears game, but the offense played so terribly it was too much to put the entire loss on Smith. This is why you don’t hire your friends. Koetter and Smith have so much history. The firing after the Falcons game was the equivalent of George waiting until the white lady got strangled before putting old Lenny down. So much tragedy could have been avoided! Do you know there are significant metrics by which the Bucs actually lead the league in offense?! They gain the most yards per play of any team. And unlike the other top-5 teams, they do it without Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, and Alvin Kamara. The other difference is that the Bucs turn it over a lot. Like a lot a lot. More than the Cardinals and less than only the 49ers and Jags.
So in this false dichotomy, where you’d imagine the Bucs are streets ahead of the Cardinals (Community reference), the Cards would probably take us in a street fight. THIS IS THE TIME TO MAKE THE PAT PETERSON TRADE.
I’m tempted to make this week’s gimmick something about which of you lot I’d fire, but let’s be real: it would be me. So I have to think of something else.
…
…
Maybe if I ramble a little more: the other thing I was thinking about this week was trades (no shit). The reason I make trades is (at least) two-fold: it’s interactive, and it makes this game more of a game. I don’t know whether what I’m about to say is profound, but I felt a sense of profundity when saying it to Brian this week: the more our choices affect the outcome, the more of a game it is. I think this is why video games are stimulating despite engaging a small percentage of our bodies: that response in the brain is coming from the constant making of choices. So if it seems like I’m overplaying fantasy these past few years, it’s because I’m stimulated by the choices, but like Jim’s dad said in the first American Pie, “hitting a ball against a wall can be fun, but sometimes, you want a partner to play with.” So when I make bad trades and encourage others to do the same, believe me, it’s because it’s more fun than masturbating.
Nope. That’s not it. Let’s go somewhere else.
I had the opinion early this year, even early this week, that Sean is screwed without a legitimate WR. The Gurley-Gordon combo is strong but not immovable. A 3-3 record is enough to show that. So I think I had this discussion with a few people, and I think it bordered on collusion and conspiracy that we weren’t trading Sean receivers. Granted, most people probably refused to trade Sean receivers because he was offering Matt Breida for Julio Jones, citing Julio’s TD drought as a sign of decline in contrast with Matt Breida’s sole ownership of a Shanahan backfield as a sign of meteoric rise. Yes, Sean, the reason you’ve had no luck until now trading for a receiver is because you’re stingy. Own it. But don’t think your luck has changed just because you’ve finally gotten a (theoretically) top-12 receiver. Keenan Allen is among the league-worst in red zone attempts because Gordon gets them all. So while you’re getting a marquee name, you’re probably looking at a 16-point max those two games Keenan scores this season. The Chargers have been scheming to get him the ball more, using jet sweeps, throwbacks, and wildcats (also the name of my forthcoming treatise on the NFL offensive revolution), and this development can be viewed as a positive because it raises Allen’s floor. The way I see it, and the reason I traded Allen, is because it represents a hard cap on his ceiling. The Chargers are scheming Allen more between the 20s as sort of an apology for locking him out of the red zone game. Will he score again? I have to imagine he will. But I think this development suggests that it will be even less than the handful of TDs he had last year. Also, the Chargers suck. This is like the millionth time they’ve looked like a juggernaut in October. This London game against Tennessee is a textbook trap game, and I will be starting the Titans D to back up my claim. Next week, with the Chargers on bye, Sean’s effectively taking the sack against Shelby. So we’re going to look up in two weeks and see Sean at 3-5, and you’re all going to laud my decision to handcuff him with Chargers when he’s offering you a package Keenan Allen and Mo Sanu for AJ Green without a hint of irony.
There’s another elephant in the room, and it’s in the form of a question: can Cameron be stopped? He has no reason to trade for anything, and his players have no reason to stop producing. I guess an injury? That seems weak and not worth it. I would definitely not shed a tear if OBJ or Zeke went down, but I admit the game is better when the best players play. But why do all the best players play for Cameron? I think we can exploit his reticence to rely on Matt Ryan. I mean, maybe he was convinced Jimmy G was just that much better, but still, after 28-3, any decent Pats fan would drag his (or her!) feet to treat Ryan as an every-week play. But still, with the rest of his team playing the way they are, who can you rip away? Kamara after another bad game? OBJ (but why pay for that)? We already found out that he won’t sell out for Gronk or Brady, so what do we do? I think we try to get him to sell out for Gronk and Brady anyway. I think, even after reading this, he will still react emotionally enough to the potential to win this league with that combo in possibly the last season of Pats dominance. Logic can only be so competitive against the chemicals squirting around in our brains. I say Spencer and Corey conspire to send Cam a three-way with Gronk and Brady.
I’ll wait a second for Cam to put his dick away and clean his computer screen.
Well, I’m up around 2,000 words with no theme in sight, so we’re just going to bypass style and hit the recaps cold.
Better Call Morty 133 over Luck Dynasty 79
In his first start of the season, Jameis Winston was the top fantasy QB until Pat Mahomes dismantled the foundations of physics. Still, 39 points is impressive, even against a bad defense. I know it looks like nothing given we’ve seen 60 from Fitzmagic, but we know now that didn’t actually happen and we were dreaming the whole time. So Brian only needed 40 more points to beat Shelby last week, and he got that from just Thielen and the Ravens D. (Notes: Thielen is on pace to shatter the receptions record yet fall 65 yards short of the yards record, which emphasizes what monster Megatron was in his prime, given he didn’t sniff the receptions record the year he smashed the yards record. That’s what happens when you average 122 yards per. Keep in mind, the pace Thielen is on would be good enough for second all-time. What does it take to break either record? According to history, at least 204 targets. Marvin Harrison had 205 on his way to 143 catches, and Calvin had 204 on his way to 1,964 yards. For the TD record, it took Randy Moss just 160 targets to get his 23 receiving scores. What was the point of this? Idk.) So Shelby had a chance, just not with the lineup she threw out there. Cousins was okay, DJ was the typical McCoy’d version of himself, Cohen was pretty awesome, and Avery Williamson proved to be a good choice over Lavonte (blasphemy and truth share a Venn diagram circle, apparently). Everything else was trash, and one thing has become clear: even though it didn’t matter in this matchup, it has become clear Shelby’s team needs to play it’s namesake. Luck doubled Cousins’ points. Ugh, I just looked at the numbers, and it appears it’s been back and forth for these two, plus Luck has a terrible matchup against the Bills electric defense (seriously). What else can I say for Brian? Nothing. His record says it all. He is two wins away from a guaranteed playoff spot, and with our new 13-game format, one more win will probably be enough to sneak him in the back door.
One more note: the Latavius-Agholor trade was the kind of move we should have more of. Two players who were too good to drop yet unlikely to find playing time. While trading is better when starters move, we have to remember there is also practical reason to trade instead of relying on waivers. You get safer players, both in terms of productivity and continued trade value. Do we want safe players? I don’t know. I just know I killed Derrick Henry’s trade value by dropping him, which will only hurt me as I clamor to pick him up at our next round of waivers.
Rickshank Rickdemption 164 over Fitzpat Rick 127
Like all of Sean’s game this year, this one took shape during the second round of Sunday’s games, which is a pretty cool wrinkle this season. Sean consistently goes into these games losing or even, only to generate around 70 points while the next best team can muster maybe half with only three games going. It’s kept him competitive, but let’s not mistake that for relevance. Meanwhile, Spencer—owner of undeniably the coolest team in our league—had a good week and suffered a bad beat. Hashtag Buccaneer football. Mahomes was the move over Brady, and most of Spencer’s squad did enough to win. His IDPs were particularly strong, combining for 26, while his DST and K chipped in another 20. If you can flirt with 50 from the back half of the lineup, you can compete. But holy shit, did the WRs ruin this game for you! Landry, Kupp, and Watkins combined for 5 points. On the other side, Sean did the thing I already talked about, and outside of Kuechly, the rest of his team was average at best.
JQuon413 155 over Show me watt you got! 123
This one appeared to be over on Thursday night, and it proved to be true. Okay, so it was technically Evan’s lead, with Wentz and Smallwood combined edging Barkley by five points. With most of Corey’s already great team in plus matchups, and Evan starting two Broncos RBs, it was going to take heroics to win, and no one stepped up. Kwon had 17, and Buttker had 18, but Hopkins, Gordon, and Kelce did not. Cam Newton basically matched Wentz, and Seattle put up 19 against the Grudeland Gruders. All Corey needed after that was floor plays, and he got them all around. His worst players were his Browns, which can be rectified.
Side note: isn’t it interesting that the Carlos Hyde trade has moved the needle in an obvious direction for everyone but Carlos Hyde? Like, how do we value him now? He had some good numbers, but he was playing like dog shit. In critical short-distance runs, Carlos Hyde opted to turn around and back-in to the pile. If you’re wondering whether it worked, let Corey know so he can get the best value back for Hyde. Now he moves to a team that has a starting RB who we think will return from a hamstring injury in a month. So we get four weeks of a mediocre RB behind an average line, on a team where the defense is grossly underachieving. Hmmm… I guess it represents a buying opportunity, but we’re not even sure Hyde will start a game. A fifth-round pick as compensation suggests the player is not viewed by either team as a starter because those picks generally get spent on depth pieces, special teamers, and developmental players. Meanwhile, we’re confident this means Nick Chubb is going to average 100 yards and a TD per game the rest of the season, with Duke chipping in 75 receiving and returning to legitimate fantasy viability. Leonard Fournette is dealing with a hamstring injury, so the speculation he might go to IR is unfounded. All you can do to heal a hamstring is rest, so this move buys that time. I think they should have just signed a free-agent thumper, but that’s probably just because I wanted an excuse to use the word thumper.
Anyway, Corey’s team is making the playoffs. Evan’s is down here with the rest of us scrubs until he figures out just one RB to pair with Philip Lindsay (spoiler: it’s not Smallwood). Should’ve sold Allen Robinson low while you had the chance.
Doofus Rick 122 over Alan Rails’ Ghost Trains 107
When you see that top scorer note on the Scoreboard page read Gostkowski across from Rodgers, you know how the game went. Now, Gostkowksi was awesome. 22 points is very, very good. If you’re top player gets 22, you might feel like you’ve got a good shot. But this: the lowest Top Scorer for a winning team this week was Russell Wilson with 27. So it takes a village or whatever. Because a fantasy team is like a baby? Shut up. What I’m trying to say is that I think this was a preview of the last-place game. Oliver just doesn’t have the horses outside of Rodgers. His 122 led to victory, but it was the first time he broke 111 since Week 1, and it was only good for tenth in the league this week. Coleman didn’t have a bad game. Deshaun Watson had a bad game. I thought maybe it (1.8) was literally the worst of any QB to play a full game this year, but it was only third worst last week, better than Carr (1.1) and Mariota (-2.8). The only other players with one game that bad this season are Josh Allen (-2.5) and Josh Rosen (1.3). That’s the company we find Deshaun Watson in just one week after I jinxed his balls off talking up his streak of 375-yard games. Watson is almost guaranteed, statistically, to bounce back against the Jags this week. Crazy. Sorry, I’m talking about anything but a matchup where the second-best scorers on each team were Alshon Jeffery and Kiko Alonso. No one deserved this win. Spencer and I deserved to play you two knuckleheads.
Jimmy G String Penis 171 over T Mac Dumpster Fire 156
This game was less than competitive despite being high-scoring. Cameron had it all but wrapped up going into Sunday night, and Sony Michel iced it, leaving Davante Adams and Aaron jones to combine for something like 50 points if Tim wanted this one. It’s a shame because it’s not the first time the two highest scoring teams have played each other. In fact, I think this happened to Cameron every time he lost last year. Tim’s team hit 156 despite getting just 1.5 from Kahlil Mack and 8 combined between his starting RBs. So when we look forward, we know what needs to be done. Tim needs a Jags-esque trade to get him by while Fournette heals. But does he break up that WR corps to do it? This game seems predicated on RB production, but you can sneak into the championship without one of the bellcow backs, so I don’t know. Am I offering him trades for those WRs? Yes, yes I am. But to be fair, I’m offering lots of people trades for lots of things. I already talked about Cameron’s team this episode. I feel the curse I put on his team had the effect of everything else I say in this note: the opposite happened. It’s like some fucked up, sarcastic Monkey’s Paw, posting this note every week. But it’s also got that Liar Liar birthday candle thing happening, where I actually have to believe what I’m saying for the opposite to happen. So I don’t know. I relinquish responsibility.
Sleepy Gary 141 over Let’s Go 2-4 Together! 131
My prophetic team name came true, so I’m doubling down on it against Sean. I believe in magic. Let me be. While I agree Kennedy fielded a winning team, I dream at night of keeping Boyd in the lineup Sunday morning. The fucked-up part is I tried to go back to Boyd last-second, but the roster had locked. It’s what I get. But also, what the fuck is up with my defense and kicker. In the last two weeks combined, I’ve totaled -1.3 points from the two positions in winnable games. While the Boyd maneuver is inexcusable, I should be able to get a combined 11 from DST and K to take close games, and I can’t, and it’s especially frustrating considering I’m kicking ass in the IDP game (league-record 50 combined points this week). My team is bad enough that I need to be perfect to win, and I’m okay with that. The Keenan Allen trade might resemble a white flag or a towel, but it’s a warning shot. I’m going to win games. Kennedy left enough points on the bench to beat me if we were playing best ball, so I can’t crow too much about what might have been. He made a very good move keeping Ebron over Burton. Jack Doyle might be dead. Kennedy is playing this thing right. He’s being patient with good players like Goodwin and Hilton and Baldwin (and even Jordan Howard). It’s what I should have done with Nick Chubb, who I just knew would start, but how do you be patient with the third-string RB of the Browns? I’m not Gandhi.
Looking forward, I’m going to do a spontaneous segment called “You’re Fucking Up” where I scrutinize your current lineup and tell you how to fix it between now and tomorrow. Maybe it will be vague, maybe it will be specific. It will exercise an advantage if only it makes you second-guess yourself in the future. With a team as bad as mine, I need to resort to preying on perspective. It’s the same reason I sway back and forth when playing beer pong. I’m assuming it will disorient your depth perception and cause a miss. The only problem with this in adult life is everyone (including me) sucks at beer pong now.
Here we go.
Better Call Morty
You’re killing it. Jameis Winston riding solo is the only guarantee nothing fucks up. I dig it.
Jimmy G String Divas
You’re fucking up by playing Sony Michel over James White. And by dropping Blake Martinez in favor of Reuben Foster. Martinez averages more than Foster has scored in one game thus far.
JCor 413 2.0
You’re fucking up by benching Frank Gore and Michael Thomas. I’m confident you’re biding your time to bench Hyde, and I fear you’re giving Powell the edge over Gore. Detroit’s run defense is terrible. Frank Gore averages 120 yards per game against them, and that is a real statistic. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GoreFr00/splits/
Luck Dynasty
You own three kickers. I can’t even do this seriously.
Rickshank Rickdemption
You’re fucking up by riding the Chargers. TRAP GAAAAAME, BITCH! I would also suggest Barber over Breida. Oh my god, and cutting Cam Jordan while keeping JPP? Gross.
T Mac Dumpster Fire
You’re fucking up by not trading for at least one RB. I would suggest two. Also, Willie Snead is a decent floor play, but you need ceilings with Ben on bye and that RB group in the shape it’s in. I would recommend free agent Robby Anderson for maximum upside.
Show me watt you got! Ride those Broncos RBs, my dude. Chicks dig stallions. They don’t go for Smallwood.
Sleepy Gary
You’re fucking up by playing Blake Bortles against a solid defense. I recommend Dak Prescott. Okay, I low-key recommend Eli Manning, but Prescott has had a safe floor since Dallas changed their offensive mindset.
Let’s Go 3-4 Together!
I’m doing the best I can. I can’t be helped.
Doofus Rick
You’re fucking up starting Lamar Miller over Nick Chubb. The Bucs will be without two starting linemen, and they only have two linebackers to begin with. I know I said our run D has been solid, but it requires a healthy unit. If not Chubb, then Callaway. Our secondary is worse than our beat-up line. I also think you could benefit from Robby Anderson if Tim doesn’t beat you to it.
Fitzpat Rick
You’re fucking up by not trading Tom Brady in a devil’s triangle to Cameron. But for the lineup, I guess I’d say you picked up Gabriel; just go for it. What are we doing here if we’re not taking chances when we’re 1-5? That’s a Browns mentality.
Alan Rails’ Ghost Trains
I don’t know how to do the long-armed shrug dude, but let’s pretend I do.
3-4 Together! (Evans) over Rickshank (Gurley)
Better Call (Jameis) over JCor (Saquon)
Luck Dynasty (Tate) over Sleepy G (Hunt)
Show me (Woods) over Doofus (Goff)
Divas (OBJ) over Trains (Mr. Biscuit)
T Mac (Sanders, I cheated) over Fitzpat Rick (Mahomes)
