First pick update:
Evans: 29 catches, 426 yards, 62 points
Brown: 29 catches, 272 yards, 46 points
This was the first week Brown outscored Evans, thanks to a TD.
Other fun stats:
Julio Jones is on pace for 2,008 receiving yards. Record: 1,964 (Calvin Johnson)
Michael Thomas is on pace for 168 receptions. Record: 143 (Marvin Harrison)
Adam Thielen is on pace for 160 catches, and he’s harder to double-team than Thomas.
Alvin Kamara is on pace for 140 catches, and he’s going to lose carries to Ingram now.
Calvin Ridley is on pace for 24 receiving TDs. Record: 23 (Randy Moss)
Four QBs are on pace to break the single-season yards record (5,477; Peyton).
Those four are (in descending order of yards): Ben, Goff, Cousins, and Carr. Of those four, I really wouldn’t count anyone out, not even Carr considering the amount of negative gamescript he’ll be getting all season.
Patrick Mahomes II is on pace to throw 56 TDs. Record: 55 (Peyton)
Okay, so let’s talk about good teams and bad teams. And let’s not do any buy or sell nonsense; let’s treat this not as traders but as consumers. I’ll start with the cost of each offense and dig in maybe to who costs what and why.
Rams – This is some take the boss and his daughter out on their combined birthday and propose to her type shit. The cheapest option is Woods, but he’s not even that cheap considering Evans bought in right after Woods signed in LA.
Chiefs – You can buy the tertiary options as sort of a side-salad play, but you’ll be hungry.
Saints – Ginn and Smith are quality Kids Menu fare if the server lets it slide.
Pats – For just a moment, they dropped all the prices, but it turns out they were just trying to move some bad fish. Even the cheapest thing on the menu now costs your mortal soul.
Falcons – Even Hooper’s owned.
Steelers – Weeks 8-12 are brutal, and they’ll still be full price.
Chargers – Sean owns the pieces you want, so you know it’s overpriced.
Vikings – The only thing you can afford is Kyle Rudolph, and you have to spend a good WR to get it.
Bucs – only in our league are all the Bucs listed at “Market Price.”
Bengals – If you’re spending this much, you might as well go for the big names above. Boyd and Dalton were relatively cheap, but now they’re locked up.
Raiders – While not technically expensive, the poor service makes it feel overpriced.
Panthers – There are affordable options, but no one orders them, driving up the price of the favorites.
Lions – I don’t know how true this price tag is. No one really eats here unless they’re already in the neighborhood.
Colts – Luck is expensive, while Hilton is reasonable, and everyone else is free. Considering they continue to skew pass-heavy, it’s only a matter of time til the prices go up.
Redskins – mostly cheap because of the bye week bias, both Smith and Richardson will be snapped up this week, filling up reservations for the foreseeable future.
(Is anyone else tired of the Yelp schtick? I’m willing to drop it.)
Ravens – You cannot afford John Brown, but anything else is basically the price of a hot dog. While Collins and Allen aren’t good options, Shelby and I are in no position to turn up our noses at RBs right now.
Bears – I don’t think any defense can get quite as exploited as the Bucs right now. Robert Ayers said on Twitter that the Bucs ran two coverages all last season, and I believe it. The Bears offense is fine, but you can get equal production on the waiver wire any week from here on. The bye week will make the cheap as fuck, but they’re really not worth holding. No one’s price should change based on one week.
Browns – I wanted to believe Baker would break out against the Raiders. Didn’t happen. Won’t happen until Week 7 in Tampa. After that, he’s got Pitt, KC, and Atlanta. This is a good opportunity to get in for free, but it’s a call-ahead with a long wait.
Titans – The Titans are technically more expensive than this after putting up 26 on the Eagles. But watch the tape. The Eagles dominated them, but the Titans got the hometown calls. Mariota made the throws and ran well. The defense will get the offense plenty of opportunities… What to do, what to do… Even after a good game, all of these options are relatively inexpensive but not quite cheap. If you want cheap, it’s Derrick Henry, but he’s cheap for a reason.
Seahawks – If Kennedy is selling Russ, I’m buying. His early schedule was tough, getting the very respectable Denver, Chiacgo, and Arizona defenses on the road, with brief respite at home against Dallas’s above-average defense. He’s about to break out. The RB committee is frustrating but inexpensive. Baldwin and Lockett aren’t cheap and aren’t going to be.
Giants – Eli sucks and the line sucks. Saquon has hit double-digits every week, while OBJ has gotten the amount of work you expect, just not the TDs. Shepard is already owned, so there’s nothing here you can do anything about, unless it’s buy Sterling Shepard at it’s ceiling, and you never, ever buy Sterling Shepard at his ceiling.
Eagles – I’m so far off this team, I’m probably fading too hard. Their late loss to the Titans proves they just don’t have the same magic as last year, even though Wentz probably is going to post similar numbers. Alshon’s no longer cheap, and Agholor is so cheap, they’re giving him away as an appetizer. Goedert and Matthews are the names to watch if you want to get in before the anticipated offensive explosion.
Cardinals – David Johnson is the restaurant, and Shelby’s not selling.
Cowboys – Same with Zeke and Cameron.
Broncos – There’s a little more here; I’m just not convinced anyone’s willing to pay anything for it. Who’s buying Lindsay, Freeman, or Sanders? I know no one is buying Case or Demaryius. If you are interested, Lindsay is probably expensive since Evan needs him, and there’s just no reason for Tim to move Sanders.
Jaguars – there are points to be had in this offense, but who’s going to score them, and are you willing to give up anything but a bench spot for it? Tim’s getting screwed by Fournette, and Sean just survived starting Keelan Cole.
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
49ers
- Just don’t do it to yourself. If you have them, drop them. But Doak, Matt Breida’s been legit! How can you fade him, dawg? I’m fading the 9ers RBs for the same reason I’m fading the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills. You have to stand a chance of winning for your RBs to be worth starting. I’m dropping these offenses so hard that I’m playing RBs against their defenses just to capitalize on gamescript.
Which brings us to the next topic: defense. Do we care? Not really. But is there merit in knowing what’s going on? For the sake of spotting the Trubisky’s before they pop, sure. I mean, I don’t want to pretend anyone can predict anything specific about these games before they happen, but I do think reasonable assumptions should drive your decisions more than simply picking names against numbers.
No gimmicks here; let’s just talk defense.
Bears – the defensive coordinator propped up a Colin Kapernick offense enough to get to a Super Bowl. Now he has the triple-threat of Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, and Adrian Amos delivering every week. I’m playing them every week, even against the Pats and Rams. If you have a matchup against this defense, you sit them.
Jags – duh. Even against Mahomes, you play this defense. If you have a matchup against this defense, you sit them.
Ravens – the one blip was on Thursday night when they lost Mosley on like the third play. They don’t have a backup Mosley. Now they have him back and they get Jimmy Smith off suspension. They’re elite, especially after shutting down the Steelers. I’m starting Alex Collins most weeks just because I think the defense keeps him in positive gamescript.
The Rams would have made this list before Talib and Peters got hurt. Talib is out indefinitely, and Peters looked gimpy last Thursday. That said, the offense puts them in position to do what they do best, and there isn’t a defense in their way until Weeks 14 and 15.
Titans – fast and dynamic, with intricate blitz schemes. Mike Vrabel is trying to be the Sean McVay of defense, and so far, he’s doing it.
Redskins – They have a defensive line, maybe for the first time ever, and we’ll get to see what they’ve got against New Orleans this week.
Panthers
Colts – The defensive line and MLB Darius Leonard have gotten our attention, but the inability to hold up due to a lack of depth raises concern going forward. 31 points to the Texans is too many points. And how did they let Hopkins run open down the middle late in OT? I’m sure part of it was frustration at the preceding fourth-down call, but that’s frankly not enough of an excuse.
(Disclaimer: the rest of the good defenses are misleading because they’re offenses are so putrid. With average offenses, they would be good defenses, but alas…)
Jets – They’ve forced 10 turnovers in four weeks! They have the requisite trifecta in Williams, Williamson, and Adams to get it done, but the offense has to stay on the field and put them in a position to succeed.
Browns – 13 forced turnovers!!! Are you kidding me, Hue? Run an offense, goddammit!
Cardinals – the Cardinals are an NBA team on defense. They have at least one hybrid player at every position, and in their base package, they have one DT than can play DE, two DEs that can play LB, one LB that can play safety, two safeties that hit like LBs, and one safety that can play corner. IMAGINE IF THEY KEPT MATHIEU. If the offense can figure out how to get 20 points per game (which would be tied for 28th, as opposed to their league-worst 9.3 ppg), they could win ten games. Treat yourself to the greatness that is the future of NFL defense.
Seahawks – Actually, they’ve played some pretty shitty offenses, so it’s hard to tell.
Broncos – the numbers aren’t strong, but if you look closely, it’s time of possession that’s killing them. No defense should be expected to play 2/3 of the game.
Vikings – I don’t know. Their secondary isn’t playing anywhere near the level of last year, and it’s explained by Rhodes being hampered by an injury combined with Waynes and Sendejo not actually being good. They’re not bad, they’re just a’ight.
Bucs – this is the opposite of the Cardinals defense. Every player we have is fixed to one position, and even then, they can’t really do that, at least not it Mike Smith’s “scheme,” which is a bit like referring to the plot of a romantic comedy as “story.” Has there ever been a clearer indication of a team stuck in the past than six TDs allowed to wide-open receivers? This is a Bears offense that wasn’t fooling anybody. Even the plays they ran to fool us were already on tape! I get that it was a short-ish week, not really getting back on the field until Wednesday, but this was a film-room game that we tanked. But even if we had a true defensive scheme, I don’t think we have the players on the back end. We need to trade for a DB before we throw the season away. I can’t believe we passed on Derwin James!!! Also, we are allowing 34.8 ppg, four more points than the next worst defense.
Oakland – we are worse on defense than the team that traded away their best player a week before the season.
Atlanta – it’s not really their fault, and in a few weeks, they can probably be half-decent, but right now, you start everything you’ve got against this defense. They’re without Beasley, Deion, and Neal. Even Ricardo Allen is a blow when he’s your only safety. They’re left starting Keith Tandy, and the fucked up thing is, I WISH WE WERE STARTING KEITH TANDY. But the best part of playing against the Falcons is they score points, so you know you’re getting aggressive playcalling the whole game.
Kansas City – it’s pretty obvious, isn’t it? Do I need to analyze this? They’re allowing the most yards. More than even the Bucs.
Saints – Similar to the Falcons, they’re scoring points, so you get a double bonus playing your offensive players against them. I mean, even the Giants had a good day against them.
Chargers – No Bosa is pretty big, but remember they lost a starting corner, too, and they let Tre Boston go in free agency without really replacing him. You can say they replaced him with Derwin, but they’re really not the same kind of safety. Again, similar to the Saints and Falcons, you target this defense because you can anticipate a high scoring game.
49ers – I’m not sold on this being a bad defense when their guys are healthy, but their guys aren’t healthy.
Steelers – what a great time to play fantasy football. Most of the good offenses have bad defenses. You’ve likely heard the talking heads explain this one. They don’t have what they need at LB to play the run and the pass. Teams can change what they do at the line based on the personnel. Plus, the Steelers only legitimate DB is Joe Haden, and he can only play one side of the field.
Every team I didn’t mention is somewhere in the middle. So to sum up, we’re fading offenses against five teams: Bears, Jags, Ravens, Titans, Redskins. (Maybe Carolina?) Meanwhile, we’re starting everyone against: TB, KC, OAK, ATL, NO, LAC, PIT.
So, there are four quality streamers sitting on waivers: Derek Carr, Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, and rookie sensation Chosen Rosen. I’m only kind of kidding about Rosen. The defense will squash CJ Beathard, so maybe it’s more of a David Johnson du jour (which means “of the day,” but it’s French, so it has cachet, which is also French). But one of Carr, Smith, or Bort will definitely start for my team this week.
Okay, the Chiefs are kind of a weird one. They held Case Keenum to 6 points in a league where QB points are juiced, so I’m wondering if they figured it out or if Denver is just terrible. I suppose it’s not worth Bortling to find out.
This should give you a leg-up on our pick ‘em this week, I hope. I was considering do a deep-dive on each matchup, but I only like to do those occasionally, so I’ll save it for a week when there are no stakes. Then again, I’m usually wrong, so let’s do it.
But first, some recaps. I know that’s what’s expected. I haven’t been delivering, but I’ve had a weird month in general, so I’m using this week to re-establish direction.
Here we go.
T Mac Dumpster Fire 131.6 over JCor413 2.0 92
Tim’s bench amounted -0.4 points, which was still better than Corey’s starting QB. Big games from the Joneses Aaron and Julio as well as the back of the lineup made this game what it was. Corey looked to be off to a hot start with John Johnson III (that’s right, at least three people in the same family think John Johnson is a good name), and he even rolled some dice flexing Calvin Ridley (his top scorer btw). When your QB and defense combine for -9, there’s not much the rest of your team can really do. Shelby won by 35. If she got -9 from Luck and the Jags, she’d have lost by 35. Literally. That’s how crucial it is to stay away from the Dolphins offense and the Bucs defense in fantasy. But credit to Tim for drafting Khalil Mack, not just the #1 DL but scoring enough to be the #23 QB, #6 WR, and #7 RB, not to mention 10 points better than #1 TE Jared Cook. Yep, Jon Gruden lost Khalil Mack, but he’s responsible for the return of Jared Fucking Cook. Another weird note to this game, Andrew Luck threw for 400 yards and 4 TDs, yet the Texans D scored 8 points. That’s 16 more points than the Bucs scored. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas got bottled up, and teams figured out how to cover Gronk, who was outscored by keeper Cameron Brate for the second straight week.
Rickshank Rickdemption 119 over Doofus Rick 109
You both got outscored by everyone but Corey this week, which makes this the trash of the week, you conglomerate piece of shit. Sean had a combined 70 from his top 3, but he had four players under 2 points. Meanwhile, Oliver left Goff on the bench, and that’s really all I have to say about that. It’s only this kind of luck that could have brought Sean back from the brink, and Sean doesn’t deserve the luck after tanking at WR. Goddammit, Oliver!
Jimmy G String Tendons 185 over Sleepy G 123
This matchup wasn’t crap, but we were expecting more competition from Russ and Howard on Kennedy’s side. Still, it’s encouraging to see Kareem Hunt and Trey Burton come to life. That’s something. Ah, and as it always goes, Kennedy stocked up at WR, only none of the WR can produce more than one week before putting up a dud or getting hurt. Classic WR stack. And still people like me cite RB fragility when we pass up on Gurley and DJ for Antonio Brown/Mike Evans. The worst part is that what I said in the last note stays true. Kennedy has to hold on and wait this out. Meanwhile, Cameron’s team is the juggernaut it was intended. While Brian is looking under rocks for RBs, Cam is leaving 40 points from RBs on the bench, and it’s the right move! I mean, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sit OBJ for James White soon, but at this point, who cares? When you’re throwing up 180 points, who fucking cares anymore? My great regret this week was letting the Packers go for the Seahawks. I can’t trust myself some days. I have no good reason for thinking the Cardinals offense is worse than the Bills. No good reason at all. By the way, Cameron put up 185 while getting only 2 from his TE and 1 from his DL. That’s what we’re up against.
Luck Dynasty 177 over Simple Rick 142
Good game all around. Shelby benches Cousins, Cousins goes off for 40, I question Shelby about it, she doubles down by saying she believes in Luck, Luck puts up 48. Glory ensues. David Johnson returned to form, Golden Tate mega-produced, and except for Sean Davis, this looks like a strong team. I’m not crazy about Jay Ajayi playing with a fractured back, mostly because it doesn’t sound real, but hey. It’s fantasy. Or, if you’re Spencer, it’s a nightmare. You have the best QB in the league, who you drafted in the double-digits, Cooper Kupp and George Kittle combine for 50, and you’re somehow 0-4. Every loss in this game breaks you down just a little more. Just ask Brian, floating three feet off the ground right now. Spencer’s will has been broken. It’s time to storm, loot, and pillage. After this week, it looks like he has zero capable RBs. He’s not going to trade Kupp or Mahomes, but you can go get Brady for a starting RB. You can have Jarvis Landry for Tarik Cohen right now if you want it. Shit is bleak! He’s been starting Sam Ficken. Sam Ficken, who was just cut today. Barf! Also, I think this is the week we get a deprecating name-change.
Alan Rails’ Ghost Trains 128 over Show me watt you got! 120
Oh look, another two teams I wouldn’t have lost to this week. I’m very happy Coleman won. I really do think his team is good enough to compete. Just look at those bench receivers! Davis and Jeffery combined for 40, and Amari Cooper’s not dead (apparently). Getting a combine 16 from Penny and Montgomery was the real deciding factor here. I mean, just about every point was necessary to hold off Evan’s Monday night surge, but I know I expected a combined 5 from those RBs of Coleman’s. If Evan had just started a QB, he would have won. How do you go into a game without starting a starting QB? There are so many sitting in free agency. Carson Wentz is right there on the bench with 26. He could’ve won this game. But you started a backup QB against the best defense in the league. YOU STARTED A BACKUP QB AGAINST THE BEST DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE. Homerism kills, people. This is proof. But hey, at least Ronald Jones played.
Better Call Bullshit 139 over Breaking Brees 132
I’m pretty upset. I shouldn’t be, mostly because I had no business winning by benching the league’s best defense against a backup QB. I BENCHED THE LEAGUE’S BEST DEFENSE AGAINST A BACKUP QB. And Jared Cook made me pay. Technically, it was Tucker who kicked the final nail in the coffin, but let’s be real: 24 points from Jared Cook is enough to kill even the best man’s spirit. Alex Collins never had a chance. Actually, actually Alex Collins did have a chance when he got the ball on the two yard line only to IMMEDIATELY FUMBLE IT AWAY, his second goal-line fumble of the year, but when I say he never had a chance, I mean more in the sense of him being a fucking loser. Will I continue to start him? Probably. Because I’m a fucking loser, too! And Brian’s a big winner. His 9 points from Brees, his combined 4.6 from two RBs, that’s what winners are made of. Darius Leonard, Margus Hunt, these are guys with a track-record of winning big games, if you ask me. Fuck this. I didn’t need this win, but when we look back on my 7-7 season, it’ll seem then like I needed this win. AND THAT’S ME BEING OPTIMISTIC. I’ll gladly take the $10 for IDP points, all thanks to 25 from my man Jadeveon (thanks, Corey).
Okay, now for the predictions. Keep in mind that everything preceding this paragraph was written on Tuesday, and everything after was written on Wednesday after waiting for waivers to clear. I don’t know how significant anything but TJ Yeldon will be, but I’ll wait anyway.
Let’s start with the upset special.
QBs – Brady over Wilson: The Colts defense isn’t terrible, but three days just isn’t enough time to prepare for the Pats offense with Gordon rising and Edelman back, especially when the Dorsetts and Pattersons are confident coming off big plays against Miami. Brady won’t necessarily explode for points, but he should hit 20 easy, even if it’s a heavy rushing game. Meanwhile, Russ is in a favorable situation because you have to throw to keep up with the Rams. However, you have to not get sacked in order to throw, and Seattle has given up six sacks in each game they played from behind this season. It’s not going to be a bad overall season for Wilson, just a brutal first five before getting right next week against Oakland.
RBs – Conner/Yeldon over Ekeler/Hunt: It’s matchups. Ekeler will have a decent game in Oakland no matter the gamescript. The Chargers love sharing the load in this backfield. Conner and Yeldon each play bottom-5 rush defenses in games where their teams figure to stay in neutral gamescript. Conner faces a Falcons D without it’s top interior lineman, MLB, and SS, while Yeldon faces a KC D that never had any of those things and hasn’t figured out how to cope. I could be wrong. Mahomes could torch Jacksonville and force Bortles to throw, making this more of a Corey Grant game. The Steelers’ offense could come completely unhinged. I just doubt it.
WRs – Marvin/Juju over Landry/Kupp: Again, matchups. Marvin Jones gets GB’s rookie DBs, while Juju gets Atlanta’s second-best corner and complete lack of safeties. Meanwhile Landry has to face the return of Jimmy Smith to a Ravens D that was doing fine without him. Kupp has a good matchup in Seattle, so it’s more Landry’s upside being curbed that tilts this in Kennedy’s favor. Let me be clear: Landry is the right play over bench receivers Hogan, Watkins, and Westbrook (though I would be tempted to play Westbrook).
TE – Kittle over Ebron: no question. The matchup favors Ebron, and Ebron is the superior athlete, but Kittle is the top target on his team. There’s no competing with that.
FLEX – Baldwin over McCoy (or anybody really): Spencer’s just not deep enough to have a reliable flex. I would probably be choosing between Westbrook and Crowell. McCoy has busted ribs, and he’s playing on the league’s worst offense. But if there were a game he could come through, it’s against a Titans defense that lacks interior strength, relying instead on speed and edge support. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Chris Ivory inside runs and more McCoy in space, where he’ll no-doubt be bottled up by Tennessee’s LB corps, which rotates seven players with great success.
IDPs – I’m not going to pretend to predict IDPs. Have you seen what I’ve been getting from my DB since Neal went down? I’m literally averaging 3 points per game from the position. We already know I owe my $10 to Clowney.
DSTs – Cardinals way over Pats: I already raved about the Cards, so that’s one. To reiterate what I said about Brady earlier, it’s not just that it’s a short week for the Colts to prep for the Pats. It’s a short week for anyone to prep for any offense, except maybe the Bills offense. Andrew Luck is going to do just fine, and the Pats will need turnovers to avoid a negative here. Meanwhile, the Cards get to dominate CJ Beathard.
Ks – Aren’t people, and I don’t care. But as long as Jesus prays to Matt Prater, I gotta give Kennedy the edge here.
Overall, it’s Spencer’s game to lose, but we’ll know a lot more after Thursday night. Brady probably won’t dip below 20, and there’s reason to believe he will actually score between 30 and 40. I’m predicting a close game decided by the better between Cooper Kupp and Doug Baldwin.
Next, I’ll hit the biggest drubbing. It was going to be Corey over Coleman until I realized I was looking at Coleman’s lineup from last week.
QBs – Matt Ryan way over Philip Rivers: Ryan faces the league’s third worst pass defense, in Pitt, where the Steelers’ offense is typically twice as good as it is on the road. Ryan’s gonna be huckin chuckin football. Meanwhile Rivers walks blindly into a seemingly lopsided division matchup (i.e., it’s a trap!). With four weeks scoring at least 21, Rivers is due for an inexplicable meltdown. Am I starting Keenan Allen? Yes, but only because I’m not actually clairvoyant. I believe it’s a trap game. I just don’t have the balls to bet on it.
RBs – This is the juiciest RB matchup we’ll ever see in our fantasy football lives. The only chance Sean has is Zeke and Kamara somehow sputtering. Gurley and Gordon will be very, very good. Even in the sense that Chargers-Raiders is a trap game, Gordon and Lynch will tote the fuck out of the rock. Gurley gets Seattle, where he’ll likely hit 20 points again. I don’t know enough to care about Houston or Washington’s defense, but I know enough to bet that Zeke and Kamara, respectively, will continue to thrash whoever they go up against. Especially Kamara in Washington, where interior strength is the only strength of their defense, and they don’t have anyone, not one person on the entire team, capable of covering Kamara in space. I’m not giving an edge here, just predicting each team gets 40 points from the RB position.
WRs – AB/OBJ a million miles over anything Sean can possibly cobble together: Sean, you have to at least try. There are three NFL teams that would start Mike Williams and Quincy Enunwa: the Jets, the Bills, and the Cowboys. This is what you get for thinking doubling up on Cowboys receivers in the draft was a winning strategy. And trading Andrew Luck for Larry Fitz like that would save you! NOBODY BAIL SEAN OUT OF THIS MESS. I REPEAT; NOBODY BAIL SEAN OUT OF THIS MESS.
TEs – Zach Ertz way over David Njoku: Alshon Jeffery’s return is a huge boost to Ertz’s production. David Njoku is not a serious threat to score points. His presence simply serves to emphasize how inconsequential TE scoring is to Cameron’s success.
FLEX – Matt Breida over Tyreek Hill: matchups matter. Breida faces the league-worst rush defense, while Hill faces the league’s best pass defense. I’m contrarian, but I’m logical. I’d rather see Cam opt for one of the Pats’ RBs here.
IDP – again, not predicting anything here. Obviosuly, Kuechly/Jordan/Smith is pretty nasty, though.
DST – Panthers over Packers: I’ll take most teams versus Eli right now. Meanwhile, Cam’s benching the Vikings out of fear, ignoring completely that the Packers lost Mo Wilkerson and are starting rookie corners against maybe the league’s best WR corps.
Ks – nope.
Will this be the week Cam tops 200? No, but he will only need about 120 to beat Sean this week.
Now for the close games. Will they likely be close? Am I ever right about anything when it comes to this game?
QB – Cam Newton slightly over Deshaun Watson: and even that I don’t believe. Both the Giants and Cowboys defenses have been surprisingly respectable against QBs, but each of these QBs can beat you two ways. What’s interesting is that each defense has faced the other QB already. The Cowboys allowed 16.9 points to Cam (on 26 attempts), while the Giants allowed 28.4 to Watson (on 40 attempts). So like I said, edge to Cam, but I think Watson will throw a lot more than Cam did in his matchups against Dallas, thus shifting the outcome in his favor, fantasy-point-wise.
RBs – D.Free/McCafe over Saquon/Hyde: matchups. Freeman will be worked in slowly and doesn’t project to be very effective, but Atlanta also doesn’t have to play him, meaning if they do, it’s because they intend to use him in order to increase their chance of winning. Is that too obvious to mention? And obviously McCafe will do fine against a bottom-5 rushing defense. He’s getting true bellcow status in that offense. Meanwhile, Saquon will probably be good but not great, maybe 70 combined yards and a score. And I know this is stupid, but Hyde might legitimately lose carries to Chubb after failing to convert that fourth down late in Cleveland’s epic meltdown. Hue’s just crazy enough. Baltimore is a tough matchup anyway. Corey’s only playing Hyde because Hyde is hot and Corey has no better option. Too true?
WRs – Green/Thomas over Cooper/Lockett: This is what swings the entire matchup if it goes the way it’s supposed to. While Josh Norman seems like a tough matchup, he’s only going to cover Michael Thomas outside, and the Saints like to play Thomas in the slot. Game, blouses. AJ Green’s matchup never matters ever, and meanwhile Cooper will probably get the only tough assignment of any of Oakland’s receivers while Russell Wilson won’t have time to wait for Lockett’s deep routes to develop. Coleman should slot in Alshon to get an edge. Do not play Corey Davis against Tre’Davious White.
TEs – McDonald slightly over Gronk: I’m not convinced Atlanta has the coverage to spare trying to stop a TE with wrecking balls for fists. Meanwhile, the way to cover Gronk has been established, and Indy will sell out and force Brady to beat them elsewhere. It won’t work as far as winning, but it will curb Corey’s scoring.
FLEX – Ridley over Shepard. Again, do not play Corey Davis against Tre’Davious White. This will be the last time I remind you. Shepard is a strong play against a Carolina secondary so weak they broke the league-wide collusion against Eric Reid. Ridley is just a stronger play against an even weaker secondary where the owner is just too entrenched to break any form of collusion, even if it includes paying his own player to, you know, play. Ridley is smoking hot, so I would probably play him against anyone, even Jacksonville until he cools down.
IDPs – hard pass.
DST – Eagles over anyone Corey picks up: which isn’t to say Corey shouldn’t try. I actually think the Jets are a strong play against Case Keenum, or you could take the Bengals against your boy Tannehill. Either way, the Eagles line will absolutely dominate the Vikings exposed interior, and though Cousins could eek out a few crazy TD throws, he’s also going to get sacked and turn the ball over. Good enough for 8-10 points for Philly.
Ks – Vinatieri v. Gostkowski has my attention. It would have been really cool if Vinatieri had waited until this week to set the FG record. I still don’t care who outscores who.
Corey has the edge in most of these matchups, but Coleman’s got spunk!
QBs – Big Ben over Goof, I mean Goff: Goff will score plenty of points; Ben will just score about ten more at home against a bottom-5 pass defense scoring heavily on his own bottom-5 pass defense. Goff won’t have to throw to win, which curbs his upside. He’ still a superior play to Rodgers, who faces a top-5 pass defense in Detroit. Then again, Rodgers called out the offense, and choosing Goff over him is so obvious it must be fraudulent. Still, Big Ben outscores Rodgers. Because sometimes things go the way we expect. Sometimes.
RBs – Thompson/Jones over Lynch/Ingram: matchups, mostly. I don’t love Thompson as a fantasy prospect, but it makes sense he’d get points in a shootout in New Orleans, especially with Washington coming in off a bye. Aaron Jones should get a chance to win the Packers’ starting job against the Charmin soft Lion’s interior line. Meanwhile, Lynch will be fine, but Ingram will probably not. Sadly, Ingram’s the best Oliver’s got this week, what with Freeman’s return curbing Coleman’s upside and Lamar Miller’s “injury” (read: suckage) rendering him unplayable.
WRs – Julio/Davante over Funchess/Stills: Right now, Oliver has Fuller slated, but he’ll come to his senses when he sees what the Bengals have allowed opposing WRs to do to them this season. And Tim’s Davante Adams start further necessitates Oliver’s Rodgers start. If Adams is going to score, it’s going to be because Rodgers threw it, right? (Wow, so jinxy) This is the moment where you play the meta-matchup. For instance, if Shelby is playing Brian, and Brian is starting Thielen, Shelby, who owns Diggs, should start Cousins just to maximize the math, regardless of who she thinks will actually score more. We can’t actually predict any of this. But we can manipulate point distribution to a certain extent. Where was I? Julioooooo. He’s going to get double-teamed for sure, but I think Atlanta forces him a TD in this one, and he’ll probably get 70-80 yards to go with. Funchess isn’t anything special, but again, Oliver’s not exactly flush with options, especially because he keeps spending his waiver priority on Browns.
TEs – Rudolph over Gates: duh.
FLEX – Sanders over Coleman: It’s a little fuck-you from Emmanuel that only Oliver will truly appreciate.
IDPs – I’ll just say I really respect Tim’s Jurrell Casey add. Buffalo’s interior line is maybe the worst (ever?!), yet they’ll try to run on Tennessee enough time in the first half to get Casey a stuff or two. Plus Casey is one of the few players strong enough to tackle Josh Allen.
DST – Titans over Texans: the Bills are terrible, and the Titans are okay. Tennessee won’t post 22 like GB did against Buffalo last week, but a respectable 10+. Meanwhile, the Texans are a strong play, likely to get sacks and picks, but can they stop Zeke? If they can stop Zeke, they will be the top defense this week. I obviously don’t think they will.
K – Nope.
This one’s probably more lopsided in Tim’s favor than I originally intended to imply by grouping it with the other close ones. But it shouldn’t be a blowout. What do I know?
QBs – Brees over Stafford: New Orleans stuck to the game plan with all that Taysom Hill crap in the redzone, and it really didn’t pan out. I think they’ll exploit the fuck out of Washington’s imbalanced pass defense, which relies on power to get pressure, meaning it will be too slow to get to Brees in time. Bress might have a perfect passer rating in this one, with a combined 30 targets to Thomas and Kamara. Washington had two weeks to prep, and New Orleans just totally toyed with them last week by giving them zero useful film for what they plan to do. I don’t know who should be more offended between the Giants and Redskins in this scenario. Anyway, I’m forced to be a cuck for Stafford this week, and I;m okay with that. Evan will drop him during the bye, and I’ll be back to sucking that Staff in no time at all.
RBs – Cook/Mixon over Lewis/Lindsay: this is kind of a joke. I mean, I know Lewis and Lindsay are outscoring the banged up Cook/Mixon duo, but this isn’t a serious matchup. Cook has a tough Philly front to face, but I think he’ll sneak in a score. Mixon has a great comeback game with Bernard injured and Miami super-sucking. Meanwhile, Philip Lindsay finally gets a legitimate opponent again, which means Royce will get the majority of carries. And Lewis, Lewis will be okay. I have to think that because I need my Derrick Henry move to be a smart one.
WRs – Thielen/Cooks = Hopkins/Gordon: right now, Evan has Gordon on the bench, and that’s okay. That’s a decision, for sure. But he’s going to feel the hype. He’s going to realize the Pats actually respect the Colts and need to throw to win, and Dorsett and Patterson won’t cut it this week. It’s Gordon time. Fuck your John Brown bullshit! Or sit Robert Woods, I don’t care! I think Evan would trade what he has for Thielen and Cooks, but Evan weirdly stays pretty fluid with his roster. He rarely targets the same guys year over year. As for the individual, real-life matchups, these are four players who do what they want. They care nothing for matchups.
TE – Kelce over Cook: Jared Cook is the #1 TE, averaging a scant 0.3 more per game than Kelce. This is the week Kelce reassumed the throne. And Cook maybe scores literally zero. Historically, that’s Jared Cook. For some reason, Gruden brings out the best in Jared. I don’t know what that’s worth. It was worth a loss for me. I know that much. Not bitter. Not one bit bitter.
FLEX – Kenny G over Robert Woods: because you don’t bench Rams receivers, no matter what. Did you all know Kenny Golladay starts in 2-WR sets for Detroit? He starts over Golden Tate. Kenny G!
IDPs – I think Mosley and Watt have pretty much anyone beat, but then again, Derwin James, y’all.
DST – Rams = Ravens: the Rams will be good maybe great against Seattle, but the Ravens are playing the Browns coming off another epic Browndown. Meltbrown? Browndown.
K – Justin Tucker over everything
QB – The Ghost of Alex Smith over Andrew Luck: the Redskins have had two weeks to prep against an awful Saints D, and I don’t think the plan is to shove AP into his “former team’s” face. It’s going to be an aerial assault. Or at least it’ll be a few bombs and just enough to keep this matchup interesting all the way to the last game. Meanwhile, Luck could dominate a Pats D that didn’t have sufficient time to prepare for him, or he could blow it in the national spotlight because who are these people he’s throwing the ball to.
RBs – David Johnson over Freeman/Kerryon over Ajayi: there is a chance that Jay Ajayi scores exactly one point. I can’t articulate why I feel that way, but I fee very strongly that this is a bad week for Ajayi. David Johnson, on the other hand, will be vintage. Just making 49ers would-be tacklers look silly. Freeman and Kerryon will have semi-respectable games, perhaps even a combined 20 points if I’m lucky.
WRs – Tate/Diggs way over Allen/Crowder: Tate and Diggs are both on fire, and I don’t fuck with that. Allen is going into a trap game, and Crowder is my choice only because he’s the de facto #1 WR for a team hopefully engaged in a shootout. I’m very tempted to swap in Boyd before the weekend. I might even throw in Chester Rogers ahead of Thursday’s kickoff. I’m crazy.
TE – Jimmy Graham over Jordan Reed: matchup. Detroit doesn’t have cover LBs, while not only does Washington have good cover LBs, they will likely plan on specifically reducing Reed’s impact on the game (hopefully opening more of the field for Crowder, if I play him)
FLEX – Derrick Henry over Buck Allen: duh.
IDPs – Myles Garrett slightly over Jadeveon Clowney
DST – Broncos over Jags: only because the Broncos are playing Sam Darnold, while the Jags are tasked with proving Pat Mahomes is human.
K – Dome kickers FTW!!!
I didn’t pick a winner here, but I tend to pick against myself. My plan is to be a coward and wait until Luck plays to pick this one.
Reminder: get your picks to me by 1 PM EST on Sunday, aka before the first kickoff. If I see that sweet, sweet Octobox and don’t have your picks, you are not eligible for the $10 this week. So make those picks!
