Mock drafts are dumb. In their current context, mockers make a list of bets on which teams will draft which players, and the crutch is typically in the vein of, “Team A needs Position B, so they’ll take Player C.” Tepid takes ensue.
The spirit of mock drafting, as I see it, is to diagnose the direction a team is headed and highlight the type of player that confirms that supposition. We shouldn’t be so interested in how specific players improve specific teams. Rather we should try to answer the questions: what does improvement look like, and what actions can be taken toward that improvement?
The spirit of Kennedy’s keeper rule was not to shove the league in the direction of dynasty. He merely saw an opportunity for improvement and took requisite action. Keepers increase pre-draft trading. There are two teams that haven’t made trades, technically three if you erase my trade with Brian from your memory. That’s the most action we’ve ever had, including in-season moves.
So, I’m a sentient ape, forever resigned to mimic the behavior of those around me. I’ve been doing mock drafts for three years now. The first year, we were subject to randomized draft order, and there was no way to know where I was picking, so the goal of mocking was more to see if I could realistically predict which guys would be available in certain spots so that no matter where I ended up picking, I could form a strategy in the hour between learning the draft order and starting the draft.
So I guess that wasn’t a “mock draft” so much as it was tiered rankings.
Then Sean implemented the draft order rule, and suddenly I could take these tiered rankings and mold them to fit what I think you assholes will do, an endeavor Oliver has referred to as “masturbatory,” appropriate in that this process produces a salty mixture of guilt and satisfaction.
Where has this process gotten me? You might assume, based on our league’s proclivity for individual tilting on draft night (e.g., Shelby taking Cam Newton 1 overall, Spencer soaking his laptop, and Sean taking Kuechly and Watt on the 3/4 turn), that this would be fruitless, and to that I say, maybe. I feel like I’ve consistently gotten a full stable of RBs at value, though I usually reach in the early rounds (here’s looking at you, Ameer Abdullah *takes vodka shot*).
Now, I have a leg up on the “mock draft” community because I am not only an “insider” but a participant. When I discuss trades in-season, I’m mostly trying to get players I want, but there’s an added benefit of getting your general temperatures on these teams, these players, and this league (ours and the real one).
There are obvious trends, such as the overvaluation of Bucs, or in Cam’s case, Patriots. The list of players in our league who think that owning one Buc gives them a more complete roster: Brian, Corey, Evan, Shelby, Spencer, and me. If you have a Buc, you can extort us. The other group of Tim, Sean, Coleman, Kennedy, Cam, and Oliver have sketchier preferences.
But whatever.
I’m winging this note. I can’t decide whether to go team-by-team or pick-by-pick, so there’s going to be some scatter-braindedness. Here we go.
Cameron
Potential Keepers (realistically): Tyreek or Brees early; Kamara late
Actual Keepers: Tyreek and Kamara
Keeper Evaluation: Tyreek is a better value than Brees, sure, but there’s more to consider/ Stacking Brees and Kamara would have given you probably 80% of the Saints offensive production for the first month of the season, and either would be easy to trade mid-season if you’d prefer to diversify. The knocks of Tyreek are the loss of his offensive coordinator and QB and a potential loss in target-volume with Sammy Watkins getting paid like the #1 receiver, though one could argue that head coach Andy Reid controls the offense anyway and Patrick Mahomes offers upside over vanilla Alex Smith.
Trades:
Received picks 18, 31, and 59 for 24, 25, and 48
Received picks 6, 8, and, 104 for picks 1, 49, and 59
Trade Evaluation: Cameron moved up to 18 to acquire Gronk, and he gave up probably the appropriate amount. I can’t wait to watch his face during Corey’s back-to-backs at 16/17. Cam got the better end of the second deal by design. I forgot that Jameis was facing suspension when I rigged a trade to give Brian the 1 to take him. In the end, I had to eat the L on that one.
Outlook: Cam is likely expecting top-12 production from Kamara and Hill, and he has the opportunity to secure a top-12 producer with each first rounder he acquired. With no picks between the middle of the third and the end of the sixth, Cameron will likely have a top-heavy team unless he gets lucky later on. That 72/73 turn is going to feel like a big deal. Obviously, there’s a whole draft to secure some sleeper talent, but we all know how we generally feel about these late-round guys.
With an entire preseason ahead of us, there’s going to be a lot of waiver wire action. My recommendation to everyone is to take chances. It’s going to be very tempting to take Jordy Nelson when he slips to the eleventh, but he’ll just collect dust on your bench. He has no trade value, and he’s likely your fourth best receiver. How many games would it take for Jordy to prove he’s worth starting when he’s your fourth best WR? Would a Week 1 splash be enough, or would you have to wait one or two more weeks, and at that point, wouldn’t you still hesitate?
So are you taking a Jordy or a Dez, both clearly past the crest, or will you roll the dice on an ascending talent like a Kenny Golladay, despite a lack of brand equity? Remember, these things change in a year. Doug Baldwin went from being a 16th-round pick to a third-round pick in one year’s time. Kamara went from the 200th pick to the first round. I think if you want a Jordy or a Dez, any amount of draft capital is the highest price you’ll pay between now and Week 1.
Also remember, our keepers move the draft up. Speaking in terms of ADP, we’ve kept two first-rounders, five second-rounders, four third-rounders, four fourth-rounders, five fifth-rounders, one sixth, one seventh, one eighth/ninth, and Cameron Brate. Add it up and you’ll find yourself in fifth round wondering, “Where did everyone go, and why is Isaiah Crowell looking at me like he wants to fuck me?”
Sean
Potential keepers: Luke Kuechly or any of his late-round guys early; Alex Collins, Ertz, Burkhead, Khalil Mack, Lawrence, or Rivers late
Actual keepers: Collins early, Ertz late
Keeper Evaluation: Considering Collins’ draft price, he was the obvious pick for early value. Ertz would have been fine in a pinch, but now Sean has the option of an extra year. There are only a few TEs worth keeping at all, and Ertz is one of them. The only question should have been Ertz or Burkhead, and Ertz has the edge in draft price.
Trades:
Received Christian McCaffrey for pick 23
Received Jerick McKinnon for pick 26 (negligible pick swap omitted)
Received picks 7 and 184 for Collins and McCaffrey
Trade Evaluation: Sean paid market value for these RBs and then swung two JFKs for one Sacagawea. In McCaffrey, I can see the perceived volatility of starting a primarily pass-catching back every week, especially once you’ve locked into one already in McKinnon. I might have stuck with McCaffrey’s solid build and relatively high floor over McKinnon’s upside. Now Sean is picking 2nd, 7th, and then 47th and 50th, which is a win because all that matters is who has the best players.
Outlook: McKinnon and Ertz are shaky plays. They play the most oft-injured positions, and being svelte increases injury potential further. Sean will look to pair a better built RB and a top-notch WR in the first round, probably scraping together a second receiver and QB on the 4/5 turn.
Corey
Potential keepers: Keenan or Ryan early; Lockett, Brate, Adoree, Vikings, or Justin Tucker late
Actual Keepers: Keenan and Brate
Keeper Evaluation: Corey was originally going to keep Matt Ryan until I offered an early second-rounder for Keenan, so that’s a win. I don’t love Brate with the late pick, but I do love Brate in the red zone, regardless of who’s quarterbacking. I would have probably opted for Adoree Jackson, who is a Deion Sanders-caliber player who offers punt-return points and a few plays on offense on top of solid DB numbers.
Trades:
Received pick 17 for Keenan Allen
Received picks 9 and 16 for picks 3 and 27
Trade Evaluation: On paper, Corey is winning these trades. Three top-17 picks is the most in that range, and only Cameron has a better setup at 6/8/18 in the first two rounds. While I don’t love trading out of the top six this year, I think with the draft taking place before training camp you get more value in multiple high picks given there’s sure to be at least one injury in the top-20.
Outlook: Corey’s entering the draft with a mostly clean sheet and four picks in the first two rounds. He’ll leave the second round with either four RB/WRs or three and Aaron Rodgers. That ninth overall is critical because it will be the only true stud (probably OBJ), whereas the second-rounders will be more in the “top-12 potential” territory.
Spencer
Potential Keepers: Jarvis Landry early; Jamaal Williams or Tarik Cohen late
Actual Keepers: Landry and Williams
Keeper Evaluation: I might have opted to keep Williams and Cohen because Browns, but otherwise this is as good as Spencer can do with what he had left.
Trades: N/A
Outlook: Spencer has stated that his intention is to take what he’s given at his current position. He’s doing some research and then letting the draft play out. And with no laptops involved, this year should be the beginning of his turnaround. I feel like I see Spencer play it safe too often in drafts, and I’m hoping this road trip has piqued his taste for adventure, opening him up to take some big swings.
Brian
Potential Keepers: Mixon, Tate, or Watkins early; Drake, Lewis, or Marlon Mack late
Actual Keepers: Mixon and Drake
Keeper Evaluation: Brian probably did his best here. Miami’s offseason investment in the RB position gives me pause, but then I consider that they shipped off all their RBs but Drake, and that’s just enough to bet on him being the starter. Still, I would have sought a trade for Lewis before I settled (and maybe Brian did, I don’t know).
Trades: N/A (cancelled)
Outlook: Brian talked to a few people, tried to cut a deal here or there, but I guess there just wasn’t enough coming or going to make it happen. He has the fifth pick, which could still be Jameis Winston for all we know. As it stands, I expect Brian to snag one of the top five RBs and swing away at WRs for the next few rounds.
Oliver
Potential Keepers: Diggs early; Hunt late
Actual Keepers: Diggs and Hunt
Keeper Evaluation: There just wasn’t much for Oliver to choose from. He had some good players worth a late keeper, but the Week 17 acquisition of Hunt ruled out any other option.
Trades:
Received pick 12 for Hunt
Received picks 32, 56, and 80 for picks 6, 139, and 163
Received picks 37, 48, 61, and 109 for picks 19, 30, 174, and 187
Trade Evaluation: Oliver’s intention all along has been to eliminate keepers and stack toward the middle of the draft, and he’s pulled it off without losing much on his end. Stefon Diggs is still very much on the trade block, and I know for sure Oliver wants more than the 41st pick for him. He has no picks between 12 and 37, but he has five picks between 37 and 56. It looks to be a sunny weekend in Seattle, but it’ll be raining value where Oliver’s standing.
Outlook: Oliver is pretty set where he’s at. I don’t envision much draft-day trading from him, but then again, drugs. I imagine he’ll draft pretty steady, and if you want to snipe his guy in the 4th or 5th, I think it’s Evan Engram. (Note: I never betray anything a member of the league tells me in confidence. Oliver hasn’t said he wants Engram; I just know he does.)
Coleman
Potential Keepers: Jeffery early; Gordon or Olsen late
Actual Keepers: Jeffery and Gordon
Keeper Evaluation: I don’t mind the keeper selection so much. Olsen’s likely playing his last year, and nobody knows how his foot injury is healing. I’ll discuss Gordon in the trade section.
Trades:
Received pick 59 for Josh Gordon
Received picks 13, 36, and 60 for picks 18, 31, and 59
Received Collins and McCafe for picks 7 and 186
Trade Evaluation: Josh Gordon is getting drafted in the fourth rounds in standard redraft leagues. Getting a late 6th rounder for him in our league, where it’s basically worth an 8th… I hate it. Even Greg Olsen was worth more than a 6th. Coleman is normally more disciplined than this. At least the RB trade was a gamble with hope of higher return. The Gordon trade baffles me. The best player left at 59 (technically 60 now) will be, like, Isaiah Crowell.
Outlook: I AM INTRIGUED. Last season, Coleman held his BeerSheets and picked the next guy up. This year, he is trying something different. The 13th pick will set a tone for sure, as it’s his only pick in the first two rounds, and best-case scenario is probably Michael Thomas or Devonta Freeman.
Doak
Potential Keepers: Fitz or Graham early; Stafford or Clowney late
Actual Keepers: Graham and Stafford
Keeper Evaluation: Fitz is probably the higher value, but Graham comes at a premium with Ertz and Kelce kept and Gronk going early. Personally, I want Graham right after Gronk and Kelce because Aaron Rodgers, so I’m taking the reach. Stafford was the obvious choice. A lot of Clowney’s value last season came from the rest of the defense getting injured, though he is still worth a late pick.
Trades:
Received Keenan Allen for pick 17
Received picks 6, 139, and 163 for picks 32, 56, and 80
Received picks 1, 49, and 59 for picks 6, 8, and 104
Trade Evaluation: I feel like I won the Allen trade, and I liked getting an extra first. Then I shoved my hands in shit and smeared it all over my face. When you tally up my trades, I basically traded my first, second, third, fifth, seventh, and ninth for the number one, a couple fifths, and some late stuff. Not smart on my part, but seeing as it’s my party, it’s only fitting I’ll kick it off.
Outlook: Most of you know by now I’m leaning toward Antonio Brown at 1 then figuring out my roster construction between picks 41 and 65. I have a plan; there’s just no telling whether I’ll stick to it.
Shelby
Potential Keepers: Cousins or Walker early; McKinnon, Prescott, or Jags D late
Actual Keepers: Cousins and McKinnon
Keeper Evaluation: These were the right moves. Walker and Cousins will probably be drafted in the same round, so it’s all about taking the guy you like. Why not the QB guaranteed the most money?
Trades:
Received pick 26 for McKinnon (negligible pick swap omitted)
Received picks 3 and 27 for picks 9 and 16
Trade evaluation: Shelby only makes even trades, I swear. These are great moves if you have plans to go with them. Since she didn’t really want McKinnon in the first place, moving him for market value was the right move. There’s a chance she could have gotten more, but realistically like two picks higher or a better pick-swap. It’s a win.
Outlook: I’m imagining she reunites with her boy Gurley unless Sean snags him ahead of her, which is unlikely considering Lev Bell will be there. After that, she’s got three third-round picks to do damage. She’ll leave the third with her QB, at least two RBs, and one or two WRs.
Tim
Potential Keepers: Adams early; Big Ben, Robby Anderson, or CJ Mosley late
Actual Keepers: Adams and Mosley
Keeper Evaluation: I’d have gone with Robby Anderson, who should go in our fifth or sixth round, making him worth the potential extra year on top. Mosley was the top LB last year, and Anderson is facing suspension, so Mosley is probably the better pick.
Trades: N/A
Outlook: Tim will wing it all the way. He has a tendency to secure a QB early and draft a second one, so I’m thinking he’ll end up with Brees or Brady at the end of the third round, unless he waits until the sixth/seventh to reach for Matt Ryan.
Evan
Potential Keepers: Kelce early; Newton, Thielen, Derrick Henry, Cam Jordan, Lavonte, Reshad Jones, or Robert Woods late
Actual Keepers: Kelce and Henry
Keeper Evaluation: Holy shit! That’s an insane decision. And I have no idea how you choose Henry over Thielen. I guess the assumption is Henry will start and that Dion Lewis’s big deal really isn’t a big deal. Meanwhile, we’re not sure Thielen isn’t a one-year wonder? I mean… you do you.
Trades:
Received Josh Gordon for pick 59
Trade Evaluation: YUP
Outlook: Evan is really fucking good at playing the waiver wire, so he’ll probably stick with what works and grab a couple stud RBs early, figure the rest out later. Got damn!
Kennedy
Potential Keepers: Russ or McCafe early; Marvin Jones, JuJu, Rudolph, or Guapolo late
Actual Keepers: McCafe and JuJu
Keeper Evaluation: I would have taken Russ and Marvin and taken very little time to come to that decision. I think JuJu’s value got microwaved last season by a relatively thin receiving corps, while Marvin looked like a friggin stud. McCaffrey is a better trade piece this early, but Russ is someone you would have actually used, though you haven’t missed the chance to get him.
Trades:
Received Hunt for pick 12
Received pick 23 for McCafe
Received picks 24, 25, and 48 for picks 13, 36, and 60
Received picks 19, 30, 174, and 187 for picks 37, 48, 61, and 109
Trade Evaluation: These are certainly trades. I feel like in the end, it will have just been a lot of shuffling to end up with similar pieces to what you could have gotten staying pat. After the dust settled, you exchanged McCafe, 12, 13, 36, 37, 48, 60, and 61 for Hunt, 19, 24, 25, 26, and 30. You’re only better off if you know how to spend the high picks. I think you acquired Hunt at his highest possible price, and though it may shake out to be a fair price in the end, he’s probably going to finish within 25 points of McCafe. Is that name sticking yet, McCafe, urrrp, you like that one, grandson?
Outlook: Kennedy has designs. I think he thinks what I thought a couple of years ago, which is that you can somehow rig the draft. In a casual league, maybe. But we’re a bunch of crazy people, dude. You’re fucked.
Yeah, about that mock: I’m not gonna do it. I did about 20 picks, and I was like, yeah, this is lame for a couple reasons. I don’t want to spoil anyone’s picks to the point where they don’t get to make them, and I don’t want to ruin the suspense leading up to the first live draft. The only taste you get is that I will either draft Antonio Brown or Saquon Barkley with the first pick. I know it seems like that makes it pretty obvious who will go #1, but I’m not deciding until we’ve officially said go. Don’t leave out the possibility that I keep a slip of paper in my pocket that says “Antonio Brown, no matter what,” just to keep myself honest. If you don’t know what I’m talking about because you haven’t seen Draft Day starring Kevin Costner, you have the flight over to get your life figured out.
Peace. And don’t draft Nick Chubb. Shit.
